Estimating the Period Prevalence of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Infection During the Omicron (BA.1) Surge in New York City (NYC), 1 January to 16 March 2022.

In a population-based survey of adults in New York City, we assessed positive severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) tests (including via exclusive at-home testing) and possible cases among untested respondents. An estimated 27.4% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 22.8%-32.0%) or 1.8 million adults (95% CI: 1.6-2.1 million) had SARS-CoV-2 infection between 1 January and 16 March 2022.

The Epidemiology of Long Coronavirus Disease in US Adults.

BACKGROUND: We estimated the prevalence of long COVID and impact on daily living among a representative sample of adults in the United States. METHODS: We conducted a population-representative survey, 30 June-2 July 2022, of a random sample of 3042 US adults aged 18 years or older and weighted to the 2020 US population. Using questions developed by the UK's Office of National Statistics, we estimated the prevalence of long COVID, by sociodemographics, adjusting for gender and age. RESULTS: An estimated 7.3% (95% confidence interval: 6.1-8.5%) of all respondents reported long COVID, corresponding to approximately 18 828 696 adults. One-quarter (25.3% [18.2-32.4%]) of respondents with long COVID reported their day-to-day activities were impacted "a lot" and 28.9% had severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection more than 12 months ago. The prevalence of long COVID was higher among respondents who were female (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR]: 1.84 [1.40-2.42]), had comorbidities (aPR: 1.55 [1.19-2.00]), or were not (vs were) boosted (aPR: 1.67 [1.19-2.34]) or not vaccinated (vs boosted) (aPR: 1.41 [1.05-1.91]). CONCLUSIONS: We observed a high burden of long COVID, substantial variability in prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and risk factors unique from SARS-CoV-2 risk, suggesting areas for future research. Population-based surveys are an important surveillance tool and supplement to ongoing efforts to monitor long COVID.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Incidence and Risk Factors in a National, Community-Based Prospective Cohort of US Adults.

BACKGROUND: Prospective cohort studies of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) incidence complement case-based surveillance and cross-sectional seroprevalence surveys. METHODS: We estimated the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a national cohort of 6738 US adults, enrolled in March-August 2020. Using Poisson models, we examined the association of social distancing and a composite epidemiologic risk score with seroconversion. The risk score was created using least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) regression to identify factors predictive of seroconversion. The selected factors were household crowding, confirmed case in household, indoor dining, gathering with groups of ≥10, and no masking in gyms or salons. RESULTS: Among 4510 individuals with ≥1 serologic test, 323 (7.3% [95% confidence interval (CI), 6.5%-8.1%]) seroconverted by January 2021. Among 3422 participants seronegative in May-September 2020 and retested from November 2020 to January 2021, 161 seroconverted over 1646 person-years of follow-up (9.8 per 100 person-years [95% CI, 8.3-11.5]). The seroincidence rate was lower among women compared with men (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.69 [95% CI, .50-.94]) and higher among Hispanic (2.09 [1.41-3.05]) than white non-Hispanic participants. In adjusted models, participants who reported social distancing with people they did not know (IRR for always vs never social distancing, 0.42 [95% CI, .20-1.0]) and with people they knew (IRR for always vs never, 0.64 [.39-1.06]; IRR for sometimes vs never, 0.60 [.38-.96]) had lower seroconversion risk. Seroconversion risk increased with epidemiologic risk score (IRR for medium vs low score, 1.68 [95% CI, 1.03-2.81]; IRR for high vs low score, 3.49 [2.26-5.58]). Only 29% of those who seroconverted reported isolating, and only 19% were asked about contacts. CONCLUSIONS: Modifiable risk factors and poor reach of public health strategies drove SARS-CoV-2 transmission across the United States.

The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and long COVID in U.S. adults during the BA.4/BA.5 surge, June-July 2022.

Due to changes in SARS-CoV-2 testing practices, passive case-based surveillance may be an increasingly unreliable indicator for monitoring the burden of SARS-CoV-2, especially during surges. We conducted a cross-sectional survey of a population-representative sample of 3042 U.S. adults between June 30 and July 2, 2022, during the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 surge. Respondents were asked about SARS-CoV-2 testing and outcomes, COVID-like symptoms, contact with cases, and experience with prolonged COVID-19 symptoms following prior infection. We estimated the weighted age and sex-standardized SARS-CoV-2 prevalence, during the 14-day period preceding the interview. We estimated age and gender adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) for current SARS-CoV-2 infection using a log-binomial regression model. An estimated 17.3% (95% CI 14.9, 19.8) of respondents had SARS-CoV-2 infection during the two-week study period-equating to 44 million cases as compared to 1.8 million per the CDC during the same time period. SARS-CoV-2 prevalence was higher among those 18-24 years old (aPR 2.2, 95% CI 1.8, 2.7) and among non-Hispanic Black (aPR 1.7, 95% CI 1.4,2.2) and Hispanic adults (aPR 2.4, 95% CI 2.0, 2.9). SARS-CoV-2 prevalence was also higher among those with lower income (aPR 1.9, 95% CI 1.5, 2.3), lower education (aPR 3.7 95% CI 3.0,4.7), and those with comorbidities (aPR 1.6, 95% CI 1.4, 2.0). An estimated 21.5% (95% CI 18.2, 24.7) of respondents with a SARS-CoV-2 infection >4 weeks prior reported long COVID symptoms. The inequitable distribution of SARS-CoV-2 prevalence during the BA.4/BA.5 surge will likely drive inequities in the future burden of long COVID.

Racial/Ethnic Disparities in Exposure, Disease Susceptibility, and Clinical Outcomes during COVID-19 Pandemic in National Cohort of Adults, United States.

We examined racial/ethnic disparities for COVID-19 seroconversion and hospitalization within a prospective cohort (n = 6,740) in the United States enrolled in March 2020 and followed-up through October 2021. Potential SARS-CoV-2 exposure, susceptibility to COVID-19 complications, and access to healthcare varied by race/ethnicity. Hispanic and Black non-Hispanic participants had more exposure risk and difficulty with healthcare access than white participants. Participants with more exposure had greater odds of seroconversion. Participants with more susceptibility and more barriers to healthcare had greater odds of hospitalization. Race/ethnicity positively modified the association between susceptibility and hospitalization. Findings might help to explain the disproportionate burden of SARS-CoV-2 infections and complications among Hispanic/Latino/a and Black non-Hispanic persons. Primary and secondary prevention efforts should address disparities in exposure, vaccination, and treatment for COVID-19.

Determinants and Trends of COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy and Vaccine Uptake in a National Cohort of US Adults: A Longitudinal Study.

We estimated the trends and correlates of vaccine hesitancy and its association with subsequent vaccine uptake among 5,458 adults in the United States. Participants belonged to the Communities, Households, and SARS-CoV-2 Epidemiology COVID (CHASING COVID) Cohort, a national longitudinal study. Trends and correlates of vaccine hesitancy were examined longitudinally in 8 interview rounds from October 2020 to July 2021. We also estimated the association between willingness to vaccinate and subsequent vaccine uptake through July 2021. Vaccine delay and refusal decreased from 51% and 8% in October 2020 to 8% and 6% in July 2021, respectively. Compared with non-Hispanic (NH) White participants, NH Black and Hispanic participants had higher adjusted odds ratios (aOR) for both vaccine delay (for NH Black, aOR = 2.0 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.5, 2.7), and for Hispanic, 1.3 (95% CI: 1.0, 1.7)) and vaccine refusal (for NH Black, aOR = 2.5 (95% CI: 1.8, 3.6), and for Hispanic, 1.4 (95% CI: 1.0, 2.0)) in June 2021. COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy, compared with vaccine-willingness, was associated with lower odds of subsequent vaccine uptake (for vaccine delayers, aOR = 0.15, 95% CI: 0.13, 0.18; for vaccine refusers, aOR = 0.02; 95% CI: 0.01, 0.03 ), adjusted for sociodemographic factors and COVID-19 history. Vaccination awareness and distribution efforts should focus on vaccine delayers.

HIV Care Coordination promotes care re-engagement and viral suppression among people who have been out of HIV medical care: an observational effectiveness study using a surveillance-based contemporaneous comparison group.

BACKGROUND: Medical care re-engagement is critical to suppressing viral load and preventing HIV transmission, morbidity and mortality, yet few rigorous intervention studies address this outcome. We assessed the effectiveness of a Ryan White Part A-funded HIV Care Coordination Program relative to 'usual care,' for short-term care re-engagement and viral suppression among people without recent HIV medical care. METHODS: The Care Coordination Program was launched in 2009 at 28 hospitals, health centers, and community-based organizations in New York City. Designed for people with HIV (PWH) experiencing or at risk for poor HIV outcomes, the Care Coordination Program provides long-term, comprehensive medical case management utilizing interdisciplinary teams, structured health education and patient navigation. The intervention was implemented as a safety-net services program, without a designated comparison group. To evaluate it retrospectively, we created an observational, matched cohort of clients and controls. Using the HIV surveillance registry, we identified individuals meeting program eligibility criteria from December 1, 2009 to March 31, 2013 and excluded those dying prior to 12 months of follow-up. We then matched clients to controls on baseline status (lacking evidence of viral suppression, consistently suppressed, inconsistently suppressed, or newly diagnosed in the past 12 months), start of follow-up and propensity score. For this analysis, we limited to those out of care at baseline (defined as having no viral load test in the 12 months pre-enrollment) and still residing within jurisdiction (defined as having a viral load or CD4 test reported to local surveillance and dated within the 12-month follow-up period). Using a GEE model with binary error distribution and logit link, we compared odds of care re-engagement (defined as having ≥ 2 laboratory events ≥ 90 days apart) and viral suppression (defined as having HIV RNA ≤ 200 copies/mL on the most recent viral load test) at 12-month follow-up. RESULTS: Among 326 individuals out of care at baseline, 87.2% of clients and 48.2% of controls achieved care re-engagement (Odds Ratio: 4.53; 95%CI 2.66, 7.71); 58.3% of clients and 49.3% of controls achieved viral suppression (Odds Ratio: 2.05; 95%CI 1.30, 3.23). CONCLUSIONS: HIV Care Coordination shows evidence of effectiveness for care and treatment re-engagement.

Estimates of the Time From Seroconversion to Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation Among People Newly Diagnosed With Human Immunodeficiency Virus From 2006 to 2015, New York City.

BACKGROUND: We estimated the time from human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seroconversion to antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation during an era of expanding HIV testing and treatment efforts. METHODS: Applying CD4 depletion parameters from seroconverter cohort data to our population-based sample, we related the square root of the first pretreatment CD4 count to time of seroconversion through a linear mixed model and estimated the time from seroconversion. RESULTS: Among 28 162 people diagnosed with HIV during 2006-2015, 89% initiated ART by June 2017. The median CD4 count at diagnosis increased from 326 (interquartile range [IQR], 132-504) cells/µL to 390 (IQR, 216-571) cells/µL from 2006 to 2015. The median time from estimated seroconversion to ART initiation decreased by 42% from 6.4 (IQR, 3.3-11.4) years in 2006 to 3.7 (IQR, 0.5-8.3) years in 2015. The time from estimated seroconversion to diagnosis decreased by 28%, from a median of 4.6 (IQR, 0.5-10.5) years to 3.3 (IQR, 0-8.1) years from 2006 to 2015, and the time from diagnosis to ART initiation reduced by 60%, from a median of 0.5 (IQR, 0.2-2.1) years to 0.2 (IQR, 0.1-0.3) years from 2006 to 2015. CONCLUSIONS: The estimated time from seroconversion to ART initiation was reduced in tandem with expanded HIV testing and treatment efforts. While the time from diagnosis to ART initiation decreased to 0.2 years, the time from seroconversion to diagnosis was 3.3 years among people diagnosed in 2015, highlighting the need for more effective strategies for earlier HIV diagnosis.

Impact of an HIV Care Coordination Program on the Timeliness of Viral Suppression and Immune Recovery Among Clients Newly Diagnosed with HIV.

We compared the time to immune recovery and viral suppression (VS) among people newly diagnosed with HIV who enrolled in the HIV Care Coordination Program (CCP), a comprehensive medical case management program, with a propensity matched group of newly diagnosed people who did not enroll. CCP enrollees had more rapid VS (≤ 200 copies/mL) [hazards ratio (HR) 1.17; 95% confidence interval 1.02-1.34] but no more rapid immune recovery (≥ two successive CD4 counts > 500 cells/mm3) (HR 0.98; 0.84-1.13). Relative to usual care, the CCP may expedite VS (though not immune recovery) for newly diagnosed HIV patients and therefore lower forward transmission risk.

Timeliness of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Diagnosis and Antiretroviral Treatment Initiation in the Era of Universal Testing and Treatment.

BACKGROUND: We describe the timing of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnosis and antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation after implementation of universal testing and treatment policies in New York City (NYC). METHODS: Using NYC population-based HIV registry data for persons with HIV diagnosed from 2012 through 2015 and followed up through June 2017, we examined trends in the proportion with diagnosis soon after HIV infection (ie, with CD4 cell count ≥500/µL or with acute HIV infection) and used Kaplan-Meier plots and proportional hazards regression to examine the timing of ART initiation after diagnosis. RESULTS: Among 9987 NYC residents with HIV diagnosed from 2012 to 2015, diagnosis was early in 35%, and 87% started ART by June 2017. The annual proportion of persons with early diagnosis did not increase appreciably (35% in 2012 vs 37% in 2015; P = .08). By 6 months after diagnosis, 62%, 67%, 72% and 77% of persons with HIV diagnosed in 2012, 2013, 2014, or 2015, respectively, had started ART, with median (interquartile range) times to ART initiation of 3.34 (1.34-12.75), 2.62 (1.28-10.13), 2.16 (1.15-7.11), and 2.03 (1.11-5.61) months, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Although recommendations for ART initiation on diagnosis are increasingly being implemented, the findings of the current study suggest that immediate treatment initiation is not universal. Continued efforts are needed to expand and better target HIV testing to promote earlier diagnosis.

Using Registry Data to Construct a Comparison Group for Programmatic Effectiveness Evaluation: The New York City HIV Care Coordination Program.

Many nonrandomized interventions rely upon a pre-post design to evaluate effectiveness. Such designs cannot account for events external to the intervention that may produce the outcome. We describe a method to construct a surveillance registry-based comparison group, which allows for estimating the effectiveness of the intervention while controlling for secular trends in the outcome of interest. Using data from the population-based, human immunodeficiency virus Surveillance Registry in New York City, we created a contemporaneous comparison group for persons enrolled in the New York City human immunodeficiency virus Care Coordination Program (CCP) from December 2009 to March 2013. Inclusion in the Registry-based (non-CCP) comparison group required meeting CCP eligibility criteria. To control for secular trends in the outcome, we randomly assigned persons in the non-CCP, Registry-based comparison group a pseudoenrollment date such that the distribution of pseudoenrollment dates matched the distribution of enrollment dates among CCP enrollees. We then matched CCP to non-CCP persons on propensity for enrollment in the CCP, enrollment dates, and baseline viral load. Registry-based comparison group estimates were attenuated relative to pre-post estimates of program effectiveness. These methods have broad applicability for observational intervention effectiveness studies and programmatic evaluations for conditions with surveillance registries.

Come as You Are: Improving Care Engagement and Viral Load Suppression Among HIV Care Coordination Clients with Lower Mental Health Functioning, Unstable Housing, and Hard Drug Use.

Lower mental health functioning, unstable housing, and drug use can complicate HIV clinical management. Merging programmatic and surveillance data, we examined characteristics and outcomes for HIV Care Coordination clients enrolled between December 2009 and March 2013. For clients diagnosed over 12 months before enrollment, we calculated post- versus pre-enrollment relative risks for short-term (12-month) care engagement and viral suppression. Both outcomes significantly improved in all subgroups, including those with lower mental health functioning, unstable housing, or hard drug use. Analyses further stratified within barrier-affected groups showed a tendency toward greater improvement when that barrier was reduced during the follow-up year.

Increase in CD4+ T-Cell Count at the Time of HIV Diagnosis and Antiretroviral Treatment Initiation Among Persons With HIV in New York City.

BACKGROUND: Trends in CD4+ T-cell count at human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection diagnosis and antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation can be characterized using laboratory tests from surveillance. METHODS: We used CD4+ T-cell counts and viral loads from New York City for persons who received a diagnosis of HIV infection during 2006-2012. RESULTS: From 2006 to 2012, the median CD4+ T-cell count increased from 325 to 379 cells/µL at diagnosis and from 178 to 360 cells/µL at ART initiation. CD4+ T-cell counts were consistently lower in women, blacks, Hispanics, persons who inject drugs, and heterosexuals. DISCUSSION: Increases in CD4+ T-cell count at diagnosis and ART initiation suggest that the time from HIV infection to ART initiation has been reduced substantially in New York City.

Perceived Risk for Severe COVID-19 and Oral Antiviral Use Among Antiviral-Eligible US Adults.

INTRODUCTION: Oral antiviral medications are important tools for preventing severe COVID-19 outcomes. However, their uptake remains low for reasons that are not entirely understood. Our study aimed to assess the association between perceived risk for severe COVID-19 outcomes and oral antiviral use among those who were eligible for treatment based on Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines. METHODS: We surveyed 4034 non-institutionalized US adults in April 2023, and report findings from 934 antiviral-eligible participants with at least one confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection since December 1, 2021 and no current long COVID symptoms. Survey weights were used to yield nationally representative estimates. The primary exposure of interest was whether participants perceived themselves to be "at high risk for severe COVID-19." The primary outcome was use of a COVID-19 oral antiviral within 5 days of suspected SARS-CoV-2 infection. RESULTS: Only 18.5% of antiviral-eligible adults considered themselves to be at high risk for severe COVID-19 and 16.8% and 15.9% took oral antivirals at any time or within 5 days of SARS-CoV-2 infection, respectively. In contrast, 79.8% were aware of antiviral treatments for COVID-19. Perceived high-risk status was associated with being more likely to be aware (adjusted prevalence ratio [aPR]: 1.11 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-1.20]), to be prescribed (aPR 1.47 [95% CI 1.08-2.01]), and to take oral antivirals at any time (aPR 1.61 [95% CI 1.16-2.24]) or within 5 days of infection (aPR 1.72 [95% CI 1.23-2.40]). CONCLUSIONS: Despite widespread awareness of the availability of COVID-19 oral antivirals, more than 80% of eligible US adults did not receive them. Our findings suggest that differences between perceived and actual risk for severe COVID-19 (based on current CDC guidelines) may partially explain this low uptake.

Seroincidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection prior to and during the rollout of vaccines in a community-based prospective cohort of U.S. adults.

This study used repeat serologic testing to estimate infection rates and risk factors in two overlapping cohorts of SARS-CoV-2 N protein seronegative U.S. adults. One mostly unvaccinated sub-cohort was tracked from April 2020 to March 2021 (pre-vaccine/wild-type era, n = 3421), and the other, mostly vaccinated cohort, from March 2021 to June 2022 (vaccine/variant era, n = 2735). Vaccine uptake was 0.53% and 91.3% in the pre-vaccine and vaccine/variant cohorts, respectively. Corresponding seroconversion rates were 9.6 and 25.7 per 100 person-years. In both cohorts, sociodemographic and epidemiologic risk factors for infection were similar, though new risk factors emerged in the vaccine/variant era, such as having a child in the household. Despite higher incidence rates in the vaccine/variant cohort, vaccine boosters, masking, and social distancing were associated with substantially reduced infection risk, even through major variant surges.

Oral COVID-19 Antiviral Uptake Among a Highly Vaccinated US Cohort of Adults With SARS-CoV-2 Infection Between December 2021 and October 2022.

Background: We described the oral nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (NMV/r) and molnupiravir (MOV) uptake among a subgroup of highly vaccinated adults in a US national prospective cohort who were infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) between 12/2021 and 10/2022. Methods: We estimate antiviral uptake within 5 days of SARS-CoV-2 infection, as well as age- and gender-adjusted antiviral uptake prevalence ratios by antiviral eligibility (based on age and comorbidities), sociodemographic characteristics, and clinical characteristics including vaccination status and history of long coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID). Results: NMV/r uptake was 13.6% (95% CI, 11.9%-15.2%) among 1594 participants, and MOV uptake was 1.4% (95% CI, 0.8%-2.1%) among 1398 participants. NMV/r uptake increased over time (1.9%; 95% CI, 1.0%-2.9%; between 12/2021 and 3/2022; 16.5%; 95% CI, 13.0%-20.0%; between 4/2022 and 7/2022; and 25.3%; 95% CI, 21.6%-29.0%; between 8/2022 and 10/2022). Participants age ≥65 and those who had comorbidities for severe COVID-19 had higher NMV/r uptake. There was lower NMV/r uptake among non-Hispanic Black participants (7.2%; 95% CI, 2.4%-12.0%; relative to other racial/ethnic groups) and among individuals in the lowest income groups (10.6%; 95% CI, 7.3%-13.8%; relative to higher income groups). Among a subset of 278 participants with SARS-CoV-2 infection after 12/2021 who also had a history of prior SARS-CoV-2 infection, those with (vs without) a history of long COVID reported greater NMV/r uptake (22.0% vs 7.9%; P = .001). Among those prescribed NMV/r (n = 216), 137 (63%; 95% CI, 57%-70%) reported that NMV/r was helpful for reducing COVID-19 symptoms. Conclusions: Despite proven effectiveness against severe outcomes, COVID-19 antiviral uptake remains low among those with SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States. Further outreach to providers and patients to improve awareness of COVID-19 oral antivirals and indications is needed.

Effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccines against symptomatic and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections in an urgent care setting.

BACKGROUND: It is critical to monitor changes in vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 outcomes for various vaccine products in different population subgroups. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study in patients ≥12 years who underwent testing for SARS-CoV-2 virus from April 14 through October 25, 2021, at urgent care centers in the New York metropolitan area. Patients self-reported vaccination status at the time of testing. We used a test-negative design to estimate vaccine effectiveness (VE) by comparing odds of a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 infection among vaccinated (n = 474,805), partially vaccinated (n = 87,834), and unvaccinated (n = 369,333) patients, adjusted for demographic factors and calendar time. RESULTS: VE against symptomatic infection after 2 doses of mRNA vaccine was 96% (95% Confidence Interval: 95%, 97%) in the pre-delta period and reduced to 79% (95% CI: 77%, 81%) in the delta period. In the delta period, VE for 12-15-year-olds (85%; [95% CI: 81%, 88%]) was higher compared to older age groups (<65% for all other age groups). VE estimates did not differ by sex and race/ethnicity. VE against symptomatic infection was the highest for individuals with a prior infection followed by full vaccination. VE against symptomatic infection after the 2-dose mRNA-1273 vaccine (82% [95% CI: 80%, 84%]) was higher compared to the BNT162b2 vaccine (76% [95% CI: 74%, 78%]) in the delta period. VE after 1-dose of the Ad26.COV2.S vaccine was the lowest compared to other vaccines (19% [95% CI: 15%, 23%]) in the delta period. CONCLUSIONS: VE against infection after two doses of the mRNA vaccines was high initially, but significantly reduced against the delta variant for both FDA-approved vaccines.

Study protocol for data to suppression (D2S): a cluster-randomised, stepped-wedge effectiveness trial of a reporting and capacity-building intervention to improve HIV viral suppression in housing and behavioural health programmes in New York City.

INTRODUCTION: With progress in the 'diagnose', 'link' and 'retain' stages of the HIV care continuum, viral suppression (VS) gains increasingly hinge on antiretroviral adherence among people with HIV (PWH) retained in care. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that unsuppressed viral load among PWH in care accounts for 20% of onward transmission. HIV intervention strategies include 'data to care' (D2C)-using surveillance to identify out-of-care PWH for follow-up. However, most D2C efforts target care linkage, not antiretroviral adherence, and limit client-level data sharing to medical (versus support-service) providers. Drawing on lessons learnt in D2C and successful local pilots, we designed a 'data-to-suppression' intervention that offers HIV support-service programmes surveillance-based reports listing their virally unsuppressed clients and capacity-building assistance for quality-improvement activities. We aimed to scale and test the intervention in agencies delivering Ryan White HIV/AIDS Programme-funded behavioural health and housing services. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: To estimate intervention effects, this study applies a cross-sectional, stepped-wedge design to the intervention's rollout to 27 agencies randomised within matched pairs to early or delayed implementation. Data from three 12-month periods (pre-implementation, partial implementation and full implementation) will be examined to assess intervention effects on timely VS (within 6 months of a report listing the client as needing follow-up for VS). Based on projected enrolment (n=1619) and a pre-implementation outcome probability of 0.40-0.45, the detectable effect size with 80% power is an OR of 2.12 (relative risk: 1.41-1.46). ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study was approved by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene's institutional review board (protocol: 21-036) with a waiver of informed consent. Findings will be disseminated via publications, conferences and meetings including provider-agency representatives. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05140421.

The prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and other public health outcomes during the BA.2/BA.2.12.1 surge, New York City, April-May 2022.

BACKGROUND: Routine case surveillance data for SARS-CoV-2 are incomplete, unrepresentative, missing key variables of interest, and may be increasingly unreliable for timely surge detection and understanding the true burden of infection. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of a representative sample of 1030 New York City (NYC) adult residents ≥18 years on May 7-8, 2022. We estimated the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the preceding 14-day period. Respondents were asked about SARS-CoV-2 testing, testing outcomes, COVID-like symptoms, and contact with SARS-CoV-2 cases. SARS-CoV-2 prevalence estimates were age- and sex-adjusted to the 2020 U.S. POPULATION: We triangulated survey-based prevalence estimates with contemporaneous official SARS-CoV-2 counts of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, as well as SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentrations. RESULTS: We show that 22.1% (95% CI 17.9-26.2%) of respondents had SARS-CoV-2 infection during the two-week study period, corresponding to ~1.5 million adults (95% CI 1.3-1.8 million). The official SARS-CoV-2 case count during the study period is 51,218. Prevalence is estimated at 36.6% (95% CI 28.3-45.8%) among individuals with co-morbidities, 13.7% (95% CI 10.4-17.9%) among those 65+ years, and 15.3% (95% CI 9.6-23.5%) among unvaccinated persons. Among individuals with a SARS-CoV-2 infection, hybrid immunity (history of both vaccination and infection) is 66.2% (95% CI 55.7-76.7%), 44.1% (95% CI 33.0-55.1%) were aware of the antiviral nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, and 15.1% (95% CI 7.1-23.1%) reported receiving it. Hospitalizations, deaths and SARS-CoV-2 virus concentrations in wastewater remained well below that during the BA.1 surge. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that the true magnitude of NYC's BA.2/BA.2.12.1 surge may have been vastly underestimated by routine case counts and wastewater surveillance. Hybrid immunity, bolstered by the recent BA.1 surge, likely limited the severity of the BA.2/BA.2.12.1 surge.

It is difficult to assess the true prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, due to changes in testing practices and behaviors, including increasing at-home testing and decreasing healthcare provider-based testing. We conducted a population-representative survey in New York City to estimate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 during the second Omicron surge in spring 2022. We compared survey-based SARS-CoV-2 prevalence estimates with data on diagnosed cases, hospitalizations, deaths, and SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater. Our survey-based estimates were nearly 30 times higher than official case counts and estimates of immunity among those with active infection were high. Taken together, our results suggest that the magnitude of the second Omicron surge was likely significantly underestimated, and high levels of immunity likely prevented a major surge in hospitalizations/deaths. Our findings might inform future work on COVID-19 surveillance and how to mitigate its spread.

Seroincidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection prior to and during the rollout of vaccines in a community-based prospective cohort of U.S. adults.

Background: Infectious disease surveillance systems, which largely rely on diagnosed cases, underestimate the true incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, due to under-ascertainment and underreporting. We used repeat serologic testing to measure N-protein seroconversion in a well-characterized cohort of U.S. adults with no serologic evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection to estimate the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and characterize risk factors, with comparisons before and after the start of the SARS-CoV-2 vaccine and variant eras. Methods: We assessed the incidence rate of infection and risk factors in two sub-groups (cohorts) that were SARS-CoV-2 N-protein seronegative at the start of each follow-up period: 1) the pre-vaccine/wild-type era cohort (n=3,421), followed from April to November 2020; and 2) the vaccine/variant era cohort (n=2,735), followed from November 2020 to June 2022. Both cohorts underwent repeat serologic testing with an assay for antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 N protein (Bio-Rad Platelia SARS-CoV-2 total Ab). We estimated crude incidence and sociodemographic/epidemiologic risk factors in both cohorts. We used multivariate Poisson models to compare the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the pre-vaccine/wild-type era cohort (referent group) to that in the vaccine/variant era cohort, within strata of vaccination status and epidemiologic risk factors (essential worker status, child in the household, case in the household, social distancing). Findings: In the pre-vaccine/wild-type era cohort, only 18 of the 3,421 participants (0.53%) had ≥1 vaccine dose by the end of follow-up, compared with 2,497/2,735 (91.3%) in the vaccine/variant era cohort. We observed 323 and 815 seroconversions in the pre-vaccine/wild-type era and the vaccine/variant era and cohorts, respectively, with corresponding incidence rates of 9.6 (95% CI: 8.3-11.5) and 25.7 (95% CI: 24.2-27.3) per 100 person-years. Associations of sociodemographic and epidemiologic risk factors with SARS-CoV-2 incidence were largely similar in the pre-vaccine/wild-type and vaccine/variant era cohorts. However, some new epidemiologic risk factors emerged in the vaccine/variant era cohort, including having a child in the household, and never wearing a mask while using public transit. Adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRR), with the entire pre-vaccine/wild-type era cohort as the referent group, showed markedly higher incidence in the vaccine/variant era cohort, but with more vaccine doses associated with lower incidence: aIRRun/undervaccinated=5.3 (95% CI: 4.2-6.7); aIRRprimary series only=5.1 (95% CI: 4.2-7.3); aIRRboosted once=2.5 (95% CI: 2.1-3.0), and aIRRboosted twice=1.65 (95% CI: 1.3-2.1). These associations were essentially unchanged in risk factor-stratified models. Interpretation: In SARS-CoV-2 N protein seronegative individuals, large increases in incidence and newly emerging epidemiologic risk factors in the vaccine/variant era likely resulted from multiple co-occurring factors, including policy changes, behavior changes, surges in transmission, and changes in SARS-CoV-2 variant properties. While SARS-CoV-2 incidence increased markedly in most groups in the vaccine/variant era, being up to date on vaccines and the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as masking and social distancing, remained reliable strategies to mitigate the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, even through major surges due to immune evasive variants. Repeat serologic testing in cohort studies is a useful and complementary strategy to characterize SARS-CoV-2 incidence and risk factors.