A UK framework for the assessment and integration of different scientific evidence streams in chemical risk assessment.

BACKGROUND: Few methods are available for transparently combining different evidence streams for chemical risk assessment to reach an integrated conclusion on the probability of causation. Hence, the UK Committees on Toxicity (COT) and on Carcinogenicity (COC) have reviewed current practice and developed guidance on how to achieve this in a transparent manner, using graphical visualisation. METHODS/APPROACH: All lines of evidence, including toxicological, epidemiological, new approach methodologies, and mode of action should be considered, taking account of their strengths/weaknesses in their relative weighting towards a conclusion on the probability of causation. A qualitative estimate of the probability of causation is plotted for each line of evidence and a combined estimate provided. DISCUSSION/CONCLUSIONS: Guidance is provided on integration of multiple lines of evidence for causation, based on current best practice. Qualitative estimates of probability for each line of evidence are plotted graphically. This ensures a deliberative, consensus conclusion on likelihood of causation is reached. It also ensures clear communication of the influence of the different lines of evidence on the overall conclusion on causality. Issues on which advice from the respective Committees is sought varies considerably, hence the guidance is designed to be sufficiently flexible to meet this need.

Recognition of COVID-19 with occupational origin: a comparison between European countries.

OBJECTIVES: This study aims to present an overview of the formal recognition of COVID-19 as occupational disease (OD) or injury (OI) across Europe. METHODS: A COVID-19 questionnaire was designed by a task group within COST-funded OMEGA-NET and sent to occupational health experts of 37 countries in WHO European region, with a last update in April 2022. RESULTS: The questionnaire was filled out by experts from 35 countries. There are large differences between national systems regarding the recognition of OD and OI: 40% of countries have a list system, 57% a mixed system and one country an open system. In most countries, COVID-19 can be recognised as an OD (57%). In four countries, COVID-19 can be recognised as OI (11%) and in seven countries as either OD or OI (20%). In two countries, there is no recognition possible to date. Thirty-two countries (91%) recognise COVID-19 as OD/OI among healthcare workers. Working in certain jobs is considered proof of occupational exposure in 25 countries, contact with a colleague with confirmed infection in 19 countries, and contact with clients with confirmed infection in 21 countries. In most countries (57%), a positive PCR test is considered proof of disease. The three most common compensation benefits for COVID-19 as OI/OD are disability pension, treatment and rehabilitation. Long COVID is included in 26 countries. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 can be recognised as OD or OI in 94% of the European countries completing this survey, across different social security and embedded occupational health systems.

Lifetime occupational exposures and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease risk in the UK Biobank cohort.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Occupational exposures are important, preventable causes of COPD. We previously found an increased risk of COPD among six occupations by analysing lifetime job histories and lung function data in the population-based UK Biobank cohort. We aimed to build on these findings and elucidate the underlying potential causal agents to focus preventive strategies. METHODS: We applied the ALOHA+job exposure matrix (JEM) based on the International Standard Classification of Occupations V.1988 codes, where exposure to 12 selected agents was rated as 0 (no exposure), 1 (low) or 2 (high). COPD was spirometrically defined as FEV1/FVC less than the lower limit of normal. We calculated semiquantitative cumulative exposure estimates for each agent by multiplying the duration of exposure and squared intensity. Prevalence ratio (PR) and 95% CI for COPD were estimated using robust Poisson regression adjusted for centre, sex, age, smoking and coexposure to JEM agents. Only associations confirmed among never-smokers and never-asthmatics were considered reliable. RESULTS: Out of 116 375 participants with complete job histories, 94 514 had acceptable/repeatable spirometry and smoking data and were included in the analysis. Pesticide exposure showed increased risk of COPD for ever exposure (PR=1.13, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.28) and high cumulative exposure (PR=1.32, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.56), with positive exposure-response trends (p trend=0.004), which were confirmed among never-smokers (p trend=0.005) and never-asthmatics (p trend=0.001). CONCLUSION: In a large population-based study, occupational exposure to pesticides was associated with risk of COPD. Focused preventive strategies for workers exposed to pesticides can prevent the associated COPD burden.

Occupational exposure to inhaled pollutants and risk of airflow obstruction: a large UK population-based UK Biobank cohort.

BACKGROUND: Although around 10% to 15% of COPD burden can be attributed to workplace exposures, little is known about the role of different airborne occupational pollutants (AOP). The main aim of the study was to assess the effect size of the relationship between various AOP, their level and duration of exposure with airflow obstruction (AFO). METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis was conducted in 228 614 participants from the UK Biobank study who were assigned occupational exposure using a job exposure matrix blinded to health outcome. Adjusted prevalence ratios (PRs) and 95% CI for the risk of AFO for ever and years of exposure to AOPs were estimated using robust Poisson model. Sensitivity analyses were conducted for never-smokers, non-asthmatic and bi-pollutant model. RESULTS: Of 228 614 participants, 77 027 (33.7%) were exposed to at least one AOP form. 35.5% of the AFO cases were exposed to vapours, gases, dusts or fumes (VGDF) and 28.3% to dusts. High exposure to vapours increased the risk of occupational AFO by 26%. Exposure to dusts (adjusted PR=1.05; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.08), biological dusts (1.05; 1.01 to 1.10) and VGDF (1.04; 1.01 to 1.07) showed a significantly increased risk of AFO, however, statistically not significant following multiple testing. There was no significant increase in risk of AFO by duration (years) of exposure in current job. The results were null when restricted to never-smokers and when a bi-pollutant model was used. However, when data was analysed based on the level of exposure (low, medium and high) compared with no exposure, directionally there was increase in risk for those with high exposure to vapours, gases, fumes, mists and VGDF but statistically significant only for vapours. CONCLUSION: High exposure (in current job) to airborne occupational pollutants was suggestive of higher risk of AFO. Future studies should investigate the relationship between lifetime occupational exposures and COPD.

The occupations at increased risk of COPD: analysis of lifetime job-histories in the population-based UK Biobank Cohort.

Occupational exposures are important, preventable causes of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Identification of COPD high-risk jobs is key to focus preventive strategies, but a definitive job-list is unavailable.We addressed this issue by evaluating the association of lifetime job-histories and lung function data in the population-based UK Biobank cohort, whose unprecedented sample size allowed analyses restricted to never-smokers to rule out the most important confounder, tobacco smoking. COPD was spirometrically defined as forced expiratory volume in 1 s/forced vital capacity ratio below the lower limit of normal. Lifetime job-histories were collected via OSCAR (Occupations Self-Coding Automatic Recording), a new validated online tool that automatically codes jobs into the UK Standard Occupational Classification v.2000. Prevalence ratios for COPD by employment duration in each job compared to lifetime office workers were estimated using robust Poisson regression adjusted for age, sex, centre and smoking. Only associations confirmed among never-smokers and never-asthmatics were considered reliable.From the 116 375 participants with complete job-histories, 94 551 had acceptable/repeatable spirometry data and smoking information and were included in the analysis. Six occupations showed an increased COPD risk among never-smokers and never-asthmatics; most of these also with positive exposure-response trends. Interesting new findings included sculptors, gardeners and warehouse workers.COPD patients, especially never-smokers, should be asked about their job-history for better disease management. Focussed preventive strategies in COPD high-risk jobs are warranted.

Occupational exposures and cancer: a review of agents and relative risk estimates.

OBJECTIVES: The contribution of occupational exposures to the cancer burden can be estimated using population-attributable fractions, which is of great importance for policy making. This paper reviews occupational carcinogens, and presents the most relevant risk relations to cancer in high-income countries using France as an example, to provide a framework for national estimation of cancer burden attributable to occupational exposure. METHODS: Occupational exposures that should be included in cancer burden studies were evaluated using multiple criteria: classified as carcinogenic or probably carcinogenic by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) Monographs volumes 1-114, being a primary occupational exposure, historical and current presence of the exposure in France and the availability of exposure and risk relation data. Relative risk estimates were obtained from published systematic reviews and from the IARC Monographs. RESULTS: Of the 118 group 1 and 75 group 2A carcinogens, 37 exposures and 73 exposure-cancer site pairs were relevant. Lung cancer was associated with the most occupational carcinogenic exposures (namely, 18), followed by bladder cancer and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Ionising radiation was associated with the highest number of cancer sites (namely, 20), followed by asbestos and working in the rubber manufacturing industry. Asbestos, bis(chloromethyl)ether, nickel and wood dust had the strongest effect on cancer, with relative risks above 5. CONCLUSIONS: A large number of occupational exposures continues to impact the burden of cancer in high-income countries such as France. Information on types of exposures, affected jobs, industries and cancer sites affected is key for prioritising policy and prevention initiatives.

The burden of occupationally-related cutaneous malignant melanoma in Britain due to solar radiation.

BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence highlights the association of occupational exposure and cutaneous malignant melanoma (CMM). We estimated the burden of CMM and total skin cancer burden in Britain due to occupational solar radiation exposure. METHODS: Attributable fractions (AF) and numbers were estimated for CMM mortality and incidence using risk estimates from the published literature and national data sources for proportions exposed. We extended existing methods to account for the exposed population age structure. RESULTS: The estimated total AF for CMM is 2.0% (95% CI: 1.4-2.7%), giving 48 (95% CI: 33-64) deaths in (2012) and 241 (95% CI: 168-325) registrations (in 2011) attributable to occupational exposure to solar radiation. Higher exposure and larger numbers exposed led to much higher numbers for men than women. Industries of concern are construction, agriculture, public administration and defence, and land transport. CONCLUSIONS: These results emphasise the urgent need to develop appropriate strategies to reduce this burden.

Estimating the burden of occupational cancer: assessing bias and uncertainty.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: We aimed to estimate credibility intervals for the British occupational cancer burden to account for bias uncertainty, using a method adapted from Greenland's Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis. METHODS: The attributable fraction (AF) methodology used for our cancer burden estimates requires risk estimates and population proportions exposed for each agent/cancer pair. Sources of bias operating on AF estimator components include non-portability of risk estimates, inadequate models, inaccurate data including unknown cancer latency and employment turnover and compromises in using the available estimators. Each source of bias operates on a component of the AF estimator. Independent prior distributions were estimated for each bias, or graphical sensitivity analysis was used to identify plausible distribution ranges for the component variables, with AF recalculated following Monte Carlo repeated sampling from these distributions. The methods are illustrated using the example of lung cancer due to occupational exposure to respirable crystalline silica in men. RESULTS: Results are presented graphically for a hierarchy of biases contributing to an overall credibility interval for lung cancer and respirable crystalline silica exposure. An overall credibility interval of 2.0% to 16.2% was estimated for an AF of 3.9% in men. Choice of relative risk and employment turnover were shown to contribute most to overall estimate uncertainty. Bias from using an incorrect estimator makes a much lower contribution. CONCLUSIONS: The method illustrates the use of credibility intervals to indicate relative contributions of important sources of uncertainty and identifies important data gaps; results depend greatly on the priors chosen.

Occupations associated with COPD risk in the large population-based UK Biobank cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Exposure to occupational hazards is an important preventable risk factor but the contribution of specific occupations to COPD risk in a general population is uncertain. Our aim was to investigate the association of COPD with occupation in the UK population. METHODS: In 2006-2010, the UK Biobank cohort recruited 502 649 adults aged 40-69 years. COPD cases were identified by prebronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s/forced vital capacity

House dust mite reduction and avoidance measures for treating eczema.

BACKGROUND: Eczema is an inflammatory skin disease that tends to involve skin creases, such as the folds of the elbows or knees; it is an intensely itchy skin condition, which can relapse and remit over time. As many as a third of people with eczema who have a positive test for allergy to house dust mite have reported worsening of eczema or respiratory symptoms when exposed to dust. OBJECTIVES: To assess the effects of all house dust mite reduction and avoidance measures for the treatment of eczema. SEARCH METHODS: We searched the following databases up to 14 August 2014: the Cochrane Skin Group Specialised Register, CENTRAL in The Cochrane Library (2014, Issue 8), MEDLINE (from 1946), Embase (from 1974), LILACS (from 1982), and the GREAT database. We also searched five trials registers and checked the reference lists of included and excluded studies for further references to relevant studies. We handsearched abstracts from international eczema and allergy meetings. SELECTION CRITERIA: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of any of the house dust mite reduction and avoidance measures for the treatment of eczema, which included participants of any age diagnosed by a clinician with eczema as defined by the World Allergy Organization. We included all non-pharmacological and pharmacological interventions that sought to reduce or avoid exposure to house dust mite and their allergenic faeces. The comparators were any active treatment, no treatment, placebo, or standard care only. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two authors independently checked the titles and abstracts identified, and there were no disagreements. We contacted authors of included studies for additional information. We assessed the risk of bias using Cochrane methodology. MAIN RESULTS: We included seven studies of 324 adults and children with eczema. Overall, the included studies had a high risk of bias. Four of the seven trials tested interventions with multiple components, and three tested a single intervention. Two of the seven trials included only children, four included children and adults, and one included only adults. Interventions to reduce or avoid exposure to house dust mite included covers for mattresses and bedding, increased or high-quality vacuuming of carpets and mattresses, and sprays that kill house dust mites.Four studies assessed our first primary outcome of 'Clinician-assessed eczema severity using a named scale'. Of these, one study (n = 20) did not show any significant short-term benefit from allergen impermeable polyurethane mattress encasings and acaricide spray versus allergen permeable cotton mattress encasings and placebo acaricide spray. One study (n = 60) found a modest statistically significant benefit in the Six Area, Six Sign Atopic Dermatitis (SASSAD) scale over six months (mean difference of 4.2 (95% confidence interval 1.7 to 6.7), P = 0.008) in favour of a mite impermeable bedding system combined with benzyltannate spray and high-filtration vacuuming versus mite permeable cotton encasings, water with a trace of alcohol spray, and a low-filtration vacuum cleaner. The third study (n = 41) did not compare the change in severity of eczema between the two treatment groups. The fourth study (n = 86) reported no evidence of a difference between the treatment groups.With regard to the secondary outcomes 'Participant- or caregiver-assessed global eczema severity score' and the 'Amount and frequency of topical treatment required', one study (n = 20) assessed these outcomes with similar results being reported for these outcomes in both groups. Four studies (n = 159) assessed 'Sensitivity to house dust mite allergen using a marker'; there was no clear evidence of a difference in sensitivity levels reported between treatments in any of the four trials.None of the seven included studies assessed our second primary outcome 'Participant- or caregiver-assessed eczema-related quality of life using a named instrument' or the secondary outcome of 'Adverse effects'.We were unable to combine any of our results because of variability in the interventions and paucity of data. AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: We were unable to determine clear implications to inform clinical practice from the very low-quality evidence currently available. The modest treatment responses reported were in people with atopic eczema, specifically with sensitivity to one or more aeroallergens. Thus, their use in the eczema population as a whole is unknown. High-quality long-term trials of single, easy-to-administer house dust mite reduction or avoidance measures are worth pursuing.

UK health performance: findings of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

BACKGROUND: The UK has had universal free health care and public health programmes for more than six decades. Several policy initiatives and structural reforms of the health system have been undertaken. Health expenditure has increased substantially since 1990, albeit from relatively low levels compared with other countries. We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) to examine the patterns of health loss in the UK, the leading preventable risks that explain some of these patterns, and how UK outcomes compare with a set of comparable countries in the European Union and elsewhere in 1990 and 2010. METHODS: We used results of GBD 2010 for 1990 and 2010 for the UK and 18 other comparator nations (the original 15 members of the European Union, Australia, Canada, Norway, and the USA; henceforth EU15+). We present analyses of trends and relative performance for mortality, causes of death, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We present results for 259 diseases and injuries and for 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors relevant to the UK. We assessed the UK's rank for age-standardised YLLs and DALYs for their leading causes compared with EU15+ in 1990 and 2010. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all measures. FINDINGS: For both mortality and disability, overall health has improved substantially in absolute terms in the UK from 1990 to 2010. Life expectancy in the UK increased by 4·2 years (95% UI 4·2-4·3) from 1990 to 2010. However, the UK performed significantly worse than the EU15+ for age-standardised death rates, age-standardised YLL rates, and life expectancy in 1990, and its relative position had worsened by 2010. Although in most age groups, there have been reductions in age-specific mortality, for men aged 30-34 years, mortality rates have hardly changed (reduction of 3·7%, 95% UI 2·7-4·9). In terms of premature mortality, worsening ranks are most notable for men and women aged 20-54 years. For all age groups, the contributions of Alzheimer's disease (increase of 137%, 16-277), cirrhosis (65%, ?15 to 107), and drug use disorders (577%, 71-942) to premature mortality rose from 1990 to 2010. In 2010, compared with EU15+, the UK had significantly lower rates of age-standardised YLLs for road injury, diabetes, liver cancer, and chronic kidney disease, but significantly greater rates for ischaemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lower respiratory infections, breast cancer, other cardiovascular and circulatory disorders, oesophageal cancer, preterm birth complications, congenital anomalies, and aortic aneurysm. Because YLDs per person by age and sex have not changed substantially from 1990 to 2010 but age-specific mortality has been falling, the importance of chronic disability is rising. The major causes of YLDs in 2010 were mental and behavioural disorders (including substance abuse; 21·5% [95 UI 17·2-26·3] of YLDs), and musculoskeletal disorders (30·5% [25·5-35·7]). The leading risk factor in the UK was tobacco (11·8% [10·5-13·3] of DALYs), followed by increased blood pressure (9·0 % [7·5-10·5]), and high body-mass index (8·6% [7·4-9·8]). Diet and physical inactivity accounted for 14·3% (95% UI 12·8-15·9) of UK DALYs in 2010. INTERPRETATION: The performance of the UK in terms of premature mortality is persistently and significantly below the mean of EU15+ and requires additional concerted action. Further progress in premature mortality from several major causes, such as cardiovascular diseases and cancers, will probably require improved public health, prevention, early intervention, and treatment activities. The growing burden of disability, particularly from mental disorders, substance use, musculoskeletal disorders, and falls deserves an integrated and strategic response. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Risk of myeloproliferative disease and chronic myeloid leukaemia following exposure to low-level benzene in a nested case-control study of petroleum workers.

BACKGROUND: Benzene exposure has been associated with increased risk of leukaemia and myelodysplastic syndrome. Existing studies are sparse for other lymphohaematopoietic cancer subtypes, such as myeloproliferative disease (MPD) and the related chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML). We pooled data from three petroleum worker nested case-control studies to address this gap. To our knowledge, this is the first study to systematically examine the relationship between MPD and quantitative benzene exposure. METHODS: There were 28 cases and 122 matched controls for CML and 30 MPD cases with 124 matched controls. Two haematopathologists identified each case and provided a diagnosis certainty score. Blinded data-driven assessments estimated benzene exposure for each job held by study participants. Statistical analyses included conditional logistic regression and penalised smoothing splines. RESULTS: Benzene exposures were low, and mean average exposure intensity for CML cases was 0.3 ppm and for MPD cases 0.17 ppm. Categorical analyses showed no increased risk of CML or MPD with benzene exposure. There was no significantly increased risk identified for more highly exposed terminal workers. Some association was seen in spline analyses between increased risk of MPD and benzene exposure experienced in the 2-20 years before diagnosis and with peak exposures considered with cumulative exposure as a continuous variable. CONCLUSIONS: No convincing association was identified between MPD or CML and low exposure to benzene. The greater risk for exposures experienced in the 20 years before diagnosis needs investigating in more powerful studies with a wider range of exposure to benzene, and the biological plausibility further examined from a mechanistic viewpoint.

Occupational cancer in Britain. Statistical methodology.

An approach using the attributable fraction (AF) has been developed to estimate the current burden of occupational cancer in Britain. The AF combines the relative risk (RR) associated with exposure with the proportion exposed. For each cancer-exposure pairing, the RR is selected from key epidemiological literature such as an industry, or population-based study, meta-analysis or review. The CARcinogen EXposure (CAREX) database provides point estimates for the number of workers exposed to a range of carcinogens; alternative sources are national surveys such as the Labour Force Survey and Census of Employment. The number of workers exposed are split between high and low exposure levels matched to appropriate RRs from the literature. The relevant period for cancer development during which exposure occurred is defined as the risk exposure period (REP). Estimation of the numbers ever exposed over the REP takes into account the changes in the number of people employed in primary and manufacturing industry and service sectors in Britain where appropriate, and adjustment is made for staff turnover over the period and for life expectancy. National estimates of the population ever of working age during the REP are used for the proportion denominator. Strategies have been developed to combine exposure AFs correctly while avoiding double counting and minimising bias. The AFs are applied to national cancer deaths and registrations to obtain occupation-attributable cancer numbers. The methods are adaptable for other diseases and other geographies, and are also adaptable to more sophisticated modelling if better exposure and dose-response data are available.

Occupational cancer in Britain. Exposure assessment methodology.

To estimate the current occupational cancer burden due to past exposures in Britain, estimates of the number of exposed workers at different levels are required, as well as risk estimates of cancer due to the exposures. This paper describes the methods and results for estimating the historical exposures. All occupational carcinogens or exposure circumstances classified by the International Agency for Research on Cancer as definite or probable human carcinogens and potentially to be found in British workplaces over the past 20-40 years were included in this study. Estimates of the number of people exposed by industrial sector were based predominantly on two sources of data, the CARcinogen EXposure (CAREX) database and the UK Labour Force Survey. Where possible, multiple and overlapping exposures were taken into account. Dose-response risk estimates were generally not available in the epidemiological literature for the cancer-exposure pairs in this study, and none of the sources available for obtaining the numbers exposed provided data by different levels of exposure. Industrial sectors were therefore assigned using expert judgement to 'higher'- and 'lower'-exposure groups based on the similarity of exposure to the population in the key epidemiological studies from which risk estimates had been selected. Estimates of historical exposure prevalence were obtained for 41 carcinogens or occupational circumstances. These include exposures to chemicals and metals, combustion products, other mixtures or groups of chemicals, mineral and biological dusts, physical agents and work patterns, as well as occupations and industries that have been associated with increased risk of cancer, but for which the causative agents are unknown. There were more than half a million workers exposed to each of six carcinogens (radon, solar radiation, crystalline silica, mineral oils, non-arsenical insecticides and 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin); other agents to which a large number of workers are exposed included benzene, diesel engine exhaust and environmental tobacco smoke. The study has highlighted several industrial sectors with large proportions of workers potentially exposed to multiple carcinogens. The relevant available data have been used to generate estimates of the prevalence of past exposure to occupational carcinogens to enable the occupational cancer burden in Britain to be estimated. These data are considered adequate for the present purpose, but new data on the prevalence and intensity of current occupational exposure to carcinogens should be collected to ensure that future policy decisions be based on reliable evidence.

Occupational cancer burden in Great Britain.

A sound knowledge base is required to target resources to reduce workplace exposure to carcinogens. This project aimed to provide an objective estimate of the burden of cancer in Britain due to occupation. This volume presents extensive analyses for all carcinogens and occupational circumstances defined as definite or probable human occupational carcinogens by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. This article outlines the structure of the supplement - two methodological papers (statistical approach and exposure assessment), eight papers presenting the cancer-specific results grouped by broad anatomical site, a paper giving industry sector results and one discussing work-related cancer-prevention strategies. A brief summary of the methods and an overview of the updated overall results are given in this introductory paper. A general discussion of the overall strengths and limitations of the study is also presented. Overall, 8010 (5.3%) total cancer deaths in Britain and 13,598 cancer registrations were attributable to occupation in 2005 and 2004, respectively. The importance of cancer sites such as mesothelioma, sinonasal, lung, nasopharynx, breast, non-melanoma skin cancer, bladder, oesophagus, soft tissue sarcoma and stomach cancers are highlighted, as are carcinogens such as asbestos, mineral oils, solar radiation, silica, diesel engine exhaust, coal tars and pitches, dioxins, environmental tobacco smoke, radon, tetrachloroethylene, arsenic and strong inorganic mists, as well as occupational circumstances such as shift work and occupation as a painter or welder. The methods developed for this project are being adapted by other countries and extended to include social and economic impact evaluation.

Lessons Learned From Presumptive Condition Lists in Veteran Compensation Systems.

Presumptive condition lists formally accept connections between military factors and veteran health conditions. An environmental scan of such lists and their evidentiary basis was conducted across four veterans' administrations to inform other administrations considering the development of such lists. Information on included conditions, qualifying military factors, and scientific processes was obtained through targeted internet searches and correspondence with veterans' administrations. The content of presumptive condition lists across jurisdictions varied by conditions included, as well as military eligibility requirements (e.g., service in particular conflict, context, or time period). Scientific review processes to develop lists also varied across jurisdictions. Findings indicate that evidence and experience may be leveraged across compensation systems (veteran and civilian). Ongoing research to understand links between military exposures and veteran health is recommended.

Toward risk reduction: predicting the future burden of occupational cancer.

Interventions to reduce cancers related to certain occupations should be evidence-based. The authors have developed a method for forecasting the future burden of occupational cancer to inform strategies for risk reduction. They project risk exposure periods, accounting for cancer latencies of up to 50 years, forward in time to estimate attributable fractions for a series of forecast target years given past and projected exposure trends and under targeted reduction scenarios. Adjustment factors for changes in exposed numbers and levels are applied in estimation intervals within the risk-exposure periods. The authors illustrate the methods by using a range of scenarios for reducing lung cancer due to occupational exposure to respirable crystalline silica. Attributable fractions for lung cancer due to respirable crystalline silica could be potentially reduced from 2.07% in 2010 to nearly 0% by 2060, depending on the timing and success of interventions. Focusing on achieving compliance with current exposure standards in small industries can be more effective than setting standards at a lower level. The method can be used to highlight high-risk carcinogens, industries, and occupations. It is adaptable for other countries and other exposure situations in the general environment and can be extended to include socioeconomic impact assessment.

Health Impact of Environmental Tobacco Smoke in the Horne.

Environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) can be a major constituent of air pollution in indoor environments, including the home. Regulation on smoking in the workplace and public places has made the home the dominant unregulated source of ETS, with important potential impacts on children. Between 40% and 60% of cbildren in the United Kingdom are exposed to ETS in the home. Many experimental and human and studies have investigated the adverse health effects of ETS. Substantial evidence shows that in adults ETS is associated with increased risk of chronic respiratory illness, including lung cancer, nasal cancer, and cardiovascular disease. In children, ETS increases the risk of sudden infant death syndrome, middle ear disease, lower respiratory tract illness, prevalence of wheeze and cough, and exacerbates asthma. Although banning smoking in the home would be the optimal reduction strategy, several barrier and ventilation methods can be effective. Nevertheless, such methods are not always practical or acceptable, particularly when social pressures contribute to a lack of support for ETS control in the home. Smoking cessation interventions have bad limited success. Research is needed to explore the barriers to adopting ETS risk-reducing behaviors.