Global mismatches between threat mapping research effort and the potential of threat abatement actions to reduce extinction risk.

Threat mapping is a necessary tool for identifying and abating direct threats to species in the ongoing extinction crisis. There are known gaps in the threat mapping literature for particular threats and geographic locations, and it remains unclear if the distribution of research effort is appropriately targeted relative to conservation need. We aimed to determine the drivers of threat mapping research effort and to quantify gaps that, if filled, could inform actions with the highest potential to reduce species' extinction risk. We used a negative binomial generalized linear model to analyze research effort as a function of threat abatement potential (quantified as the potential reduction in species extinction risk from abating threats), species richness, land area, and human pressure. The model showed that threat mapping research effort increased by 1.1 to 1.2 times per standardized unit change in threat abatement potential. However, species richness and land area were stronger predictors of research effort overall. The greatest areas of mismatch between research effort and threat abatement potential, receiving disproportionately low research effort, were related to the threats to species of agriculture, aquaculture, and biological resource use across the tropical regions of the Americas, Asia, and Madagascar. Conversely, the threat of linear infrastructure (e.g., roads and rails) across regions, the threat of biological resource use (e.g., hunting or collection) in sub-Saharan Africa, and overall threats in North America and Europe all received disproportionately high research effort. We discuss the range of methodological and sociopolitical factors that may be behind the overall trends and specific areas of mismatch we found. We urge a stronger emphasis on targeting research effort toward those threats and geographic locations where threat abatement activities could make the greatest contribution to reducing global species extinction risk.

Disparidades mundiales entre la investigación sobre el esfuerzo de mapeo de amenazas y la potencial amenaza de las acciones de abatimiento para reducir el riesgo de extinción Resumen El mapeo de amenazas es una herramienta necesaria para identificar y abatir las amenazas directas para las especies en la actual crisis de extinción. Existen vacíos conocidos en la literatura del mapeo de amenazas para amenazas particulares y ubicaciones geográficas, y todavía no está claro si la distribución de los esfuerzos de investigación está enfocada de forma apropiada en relación con las necesidades de conservación. Buscamos determinar los factores que influyen sobre el esfuerzo de investigación del mapeo de amenazas y cuantificar los vacíos que, si se cierran, podrían guiar las acciones con el potencial más alto para reducir el riesgo de extinción de las especies. Usamos un modelo binomial lineal negativo generalizado para analizar el esfuerzo de investigación como función del potencial de abatimiento de amenazas (cuantificado como la reducción potencial en el riesgo de extinción a partir del abatimiento de amenazas), la riqueza de especies, el área del suelo y la presión humana. El modelo mostró que el esfuerzo de investigación del mapeo de amenazas incrementó entre 1.1 y 1.2 veces por unidad estandarizada de cambio en el potencial de abatimiento de amenazas. Sin embargo, la riqueza de especies y el área del suelo fueron pronósticos más sólidos del esfuerzo de investigación generalizado. Las principales áreas de disparidad entre el esfuerzo de investigación y el potencial de abatimiento de amenazas, las cuales reciben un esfuerzo de investigación desproporcionalmente bajo, estuvieron relacionadas con las amenazas para las especies de agricultura, acuacultura y recursos biológicos que se usan en las regiones tropicales de América, Asia y Madagascar. Al contrario, la amenaza de la infraestructura lineal (p. ej.: carreteras y vías férreas) en las regiones, la amenaza del uso de recursos biológicos (p. ej.: caza o recolección) en la África subsahariana y las amenazas generales en América del Norte y en Europa recibieron un esfuerzo de investigación desproporcionalmente alto. Abordamos el rango de factores metodológicos y sociopolíticos que pueden estar detrás de las tendencias generales y las áreas específicas de disparidad que encontramos. Instamos a un mayor énfasis en el enfoque del esfuerzo de investigación hacia aquellas amenazas y ubicaciones geográficas en donde las actividades de abatimiento de amenazas podrían brindar una mayor contribución para reducir el riesgo mundial de extinción de especies.

The COLO-COHORT (Colorectal Cancer Cohort) study: Protocol for a multi-centre, observational research study and development of a consent-for-contact research platform.

AIM: The COLO-COHORT study aims to produce a multi-factorial risk prediction model for colorectal neoplasia that can be used to target colonoscopy to those at greatest risk of colorectal neoplasia, ensuring that people are not investigated unnecessarily and maximizing the use of limited endoscopy resources. The study will also explore the link between neoplasia and the human gut microbiome. Additionally, the study aims to generate a cohort of colonoscopy patients who are 'research ready' through the development of a consent-for-contact (C4C) platform, to facilitate a range of colorectal cancer prevention studies to be conducted at scale and speed. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a multi-centre observational study involving sites across the UK. Recruitment is over a 6-year period (2019-2025). Patients recruited to the study are those attending for colonoscopy. Patients are recruited into two groups, namely observational group A (10 000 patients) and C4C group B (10 000 patients), known as COLO-SPEED (Colorectal Cancer Screening Prevention Endoscopy and Early Diagnosis; https://colospeed.uk). Patients complete a health questionnaire, provide anthropometric measurements and submit biosamples (blood and stool-depending on the part of the study they are recruited into). Patients' colonoscopy and histology findings are also recorded. Models of factors associated with the presence of neoplasia at colonoscopy will be developed using logistic or multinomial regression. For internal validation, model discrimination and calibration will be assessed and bootstrapping and cross-validation approaches used. To enable long-term follow-up for outcomes related to colorectal cancer and polyps, patients are asked to consent to follow-up through data linkage with national databases. DISSEMINATION: In keeping with good research practice, following analysis by the study team the study investigators will make the anonymized dataset available to other researchers. The C4C platform will also be accessible to other researchers. The study findings will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals and lay summaries will be disseminated to participants and the wider public.

Climate, human behaviour or environment: individual-based modelling of Campylobacter seasonality and strategies to reduce disease burden.

BACKGROUND: With over 800 million cases globally, campylobacteriosis is a major cause of food borne disease. In temperate climates incidence is highly seasonal but the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood, making human disease control difficult. We hypothesised that observed disease patterns reflect complex interactions between weather, patterns of human risk behaviour, immune status and level of food contamination. Only by understanding these can we find effective interventions. METHODS: We analysed trends in human Campylobacter cases in NE England from 2004 to 2009, investigating the associations between different risk factors and disease using time-series models. We then developed an individual-based (IB) model of risk behaviour, human immunological responses to infection and environmental contamination driven by weather and land use. We parameterised the IB model for NE England and compared outputs to observed numbers of reported cases each month in the population in 2004-2009. Finally, we used it to investigate different community level disease reduction strategies. RESULTS: Risk behaviours like countryside visits (t = 3.665, P < 0.001 and t = - 2.187, P = 0.029 for temperature and rainfall respectively), and consumption of barbecued food were strongly associated with weather, (t = 3.219, P = 0.002 and t = 2.015, P = 0.045 for weekly average temperature and average maximum temperature respectively) and also rain (t = 2.254, P = 0.02527). This suggests that the effect of weather was indirect, acting through changes in risk behaviour. The seasonal pattern of cases predicted by the IB model was significantly related to observed patterns (r = 0.72, P < 0.001) indicating that simulating risk behaviour could produce the observed seasonal patterns of cases. A vaccination strategy providing short-term immunity was more effective than educational interventions to modify human risk behaviour. Extending immunity to 1 year from 20 days reduced disease burden by an order of magnitude (from 2412-2414 to 203-309 cases per 50,000 person-years). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first interdisciplinary study to integrate environment, risk behaviour, socio-demographics and immunology to model Campylobacter infection, including pathways to mitigation. We conclude that vaccination is likely to be the best route for intervening against campylobacteriosis despite the technical problems associated with understanding both the underlying human immunology and genetic variation in the pathogen, and the likely cost of vaccine development.

Control of norovirus infection.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The purpose of the review is to provide an update on control measures for norovirus (NoV), which is the most commonly implicated pathogen in acute gastroenteritis and outbreaks, causing major disruption in nurseries, schools, hospitals and care homes. RECENT FINDINGS: Important developments include the discovery that virus particles, previously considered to be the infectious unit, also occur in clusters, which appear to be more virulent than individual virus particles; a working culture system using human stem-cell derived enteroids; promising results from early phase clinical trials of candidate NoV vaccines, which appear to be safe and immunogenic; chronic NoV affects patients with primary and secondary immune deficiencies. Although several treatments have been used none are supported by well designed clinical trials; infection control procedures are effective if properly implemented. SUMMARY: NoV remains an important cause of morbidity and mortality. Although there are exciting developments on the vaccine front, the mainstay of control remains good hand hygiene, adherence to infection control procedures and limiting contamination of food, water and the wider environment. Once vaccines are available there will be important decisions to be made about how best to implement them.

Modeling Seasonal and Spatiotemporal Variation: The Example of Respiratory Prescribing.

Many measures of chronic diseases, including respiratory disease, exhibit seasonal variation together with residual correlation between consecutive time periods and neighboring areas. We demonstrate a strategy for modeling data that exhibit both seasonal trend and spatiotemporal correlation, using an application to respiratory prescribing. We analyzed 55 months (2002-2006) of prescribing data from the northeast of England, in the United Kingdom. We estimated the seasonal pattern of prescribing by fitting a dynamic harmonic regression (DHR) model to salbutamol prescribing in relation to temperature. We compared the output of DHR models to static sinusoidal regression models. We used the DHR-fitted values as an offset in mixed-effects models that aimed to account for the remaining spatiotemporal variation in prescribing rates. As diagnostic checks, we assessed spatial and temporal correlation separately and jointly. Our application of a DHR model resulted in a better fit to the seasonal variation of prescribing than was obtained with a static model. After adjusting for the fitted values from the DHR model, we did not detect any remaining spatiotemporal correlation in the model's residuals. Using a DHR model and temperature data to account for the periodicity of prescribing proved to be an efficient way to capture its seasonal variation. The diagnostic procedures indicated that there was no need to model any remaining correlation explicitly.

Relationship between mean daily energy intake and frequency of consumption of out-of-home meals in the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey.

BACKGROUND: Out-of-home meals have been characterised as delivering excessively large portions that can lead to high energy intake. Regular consumption is linked to weight gain and diet related diseases. Consumption of out-of-home meals is associated with socio-demographic and anthropometric factors, but the relationship between habitual consumption of such meals and mean daily energy intake has not been studied in both adults and children in the UK. METHODS: We analysed adult and child data from waves 1-4 of the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey using generalized linear modelling. We investigated whether individuals who report a higher habitual consumption of meals out in a restaurant or café, or takeaway meals at home had a higher mean daily energy intake, as estimated by a four-day food diary, whilst adjusting for key socio-demographic and anthropometric variables. RESULTS: Adults who ate meals out at least weekly had a higher mean daily energy intake consuming 75-104 kcal more per day than those who ate these meals rarely. The equivalent figures for takeaway meals at home were 63-87 kcal. There was no association between energy intake and frequency of consumption of meals out in children. Children who ate takeaway meals at home at least weekly consumed 55-168 kcal more per day than those who ate these meals rarely. Additionally, in children, there was an interaction with socio-economic position, where greater frequency of consumption of takeaway meals was associated with higher mean daily energy intake in those from less affluent households than those from more affluent households. CONCLUSIONS: Higher habitual consumption of out-of-home meals is associated with greater mean daily energy intake in the UK. More frequent takeaway meal consumption in adults and children is associated with greater daily energy intake and this effect is greater in children from less affluent households. Interventions seeking to reduce energy content through reformulation or reduction of portion sizes in restaurants, cafés and takeaways could potentially lead to reductions in mean daily energy intake, and may reduce inequalities in health in children.

Increasing age and female gender are associated with early knee replacement following arthroscopy.

PURPOSE: Early knee replacement following arthroscopy may be perceived as a failure of the original treatment and thus a poor use of resources. Factors that may be associated with increased risk of early replacement were explored in this study. METHODS: All adult patients who underwent planned knee arthroscopy in a national cohort over a 6-month period in 2005 were extracted from the administrative hospital admissions database and linked to determine whether and when a knee replacement occurred on the same knee within the subsequent 5 years. A combination of survival analysis and mixed effect modelling was used to investigate risk factors for replacement. RESULTS: There were a total of 20,556 arthroscopies, of which 2,161 (10.6%) subsequently underwent knee replacement. For patients under 60 years, female gender (62.1% higher risk, p < 0.001) and increasing age (12.7% increased risk per increasing year of age, p < 0.001) were significant associations for requiring knee replacement, after risk adjusting. Of those aged ≥60, 12.7% (576) had undergone a replacement at 1 year following arthroscopy. Females (33% higher risk), increasing age (7.3% increased risk per increasing year of age, p < 0.001) and hypertension (1,600% higher risk, p < 0.001) were significant predictors. The risk associated with increased age was not proportional for the older age group, with risk declining as time passed from arthroscopy, indicating other factors were influencing progression to knee replacement. CONCLUSIONS: The predictors of early knee replacement following arthroscopy were female sex, age over 60 years and hypertension, irrespective of type of operation. This work may contribute to national recommendations regarding the provision of arthroscopy for patients over 60 years. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: III.

Aetiology of paediatric pneumonia after the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine.

We describe the aetiology of community-acquired pneumonia in children before and after the introduction of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccination (PCV) programme in 2006. Prospective studies were conducted in 2001-2002 (pre-vaccine) and 2009-2011 (post-vaccine) of children aged 0-16 years with radiologically confirmed pneumonia seen in hospital. Investigations included culture, serology, immunofluorescence antibody and urine antigen testing, with an increased use of PCR assays and expanded panels of pathogens in the post-vaccine study. 241 and 160 children were enrolled in the pre- and post-vaccine studies, respectively (73% aged <5 years). Identification of a causative pathogen was higher post-vaccination (61%) than pre-vaccination (48.5%) (p=0.019). Rates of bacterial infections were not different between post- and pre-vaccine studies (17.5% versus 24%, p=0.258). Viral (31%) and mixed (12.5%) infections were found more often post-vaccination (19.5%, p=0.021) than pre-vaccination (5%, p=0.015). Rates of identified pneumococcal infections were comparable between pre- and post-vaccine studies (14.7% versus 17.4%, p=0.557). Diagnosis of pneumococcal infection post-vaccination improved when PCR was used compared to culture (21.6% versus 6%, p=0.0004). Serotypes included in PCV13 but not PCV7 were identified in 75% (18 out of 24) post-vaccination. Infection with nonvaccine pneumococcal serotypes continues to be a significant cause of pneumonia in children in the UK.

The relationships between adult juvenile idiopathic arthritis and employment.

OBJECTIVE: The chronicity of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) into adulthood and attendant potential disability may adversely influence educational attainment and the ability to secure and maintain gainful employment. We undertook this study to investigate the effects of patient- and disease-specific factors on education and employment outcomes in a group of adult patients with JIA. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study of 103 consecutive adults attending a JIA continuity clinic, and patients who consented completed questionnaires relating to educational achievement, employment status, and functional disability (the Health Assessment Questionnaire disability index [HAQ DI]), and, for those who were employed, the rheumatoid arthritis Work Instability Scale. We used the structural equation modeling technique to study key patient and disease variables for employment in adults with JIA. RESULTS: The median age of patients was 24 years (range 17-71 years) with median disease duration of 19 years (range 7-67 years). Functional disability (the mean HAQ DI score) was significantly lower in patients who were employed (P = 0.03) and in those with oligoarticular JIA (t = 2.29, P = 0.02). Educational achievement was not influenced by JIA subtype (F = 1.18, P = 0.33). Educational achievement measured by General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE) grades had a positive effect on the type of job achieved in later life (F = 11.63, P = 0.001), with greater success leading to more professional or managerial posts. In the complex structural equation model, job stability was influenced positively by educational achievement measured by GCSE grades and negatively by the HAQ DI score (t = 10.94, P = 6.36 × 10(-16) ). CONCLUSION: Educational attainment is key to successful employability and is influenced by functional disability rather than by JIA subtype. These findings have implications for choice of occupation and delivery of career advice to aid decision making by young people with JIA.

Elderly men with renal dysfunction are most at risk for poor outcome after neck of femur fractures.

BACKGROUND: both acute and chronic renal dysfunction (ARD and CRD) have been reported to influence outcomes after neck of femur fractures. We have examined the relationship between the length of stay, mortality and renal dysfunction using biomarkers. These included pre-operative (admission) serum concentrations of urea, creatinine and albumin, and estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) derived from four- and six-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) study equations. METHODS: complete outcomes data for 566 patients and the patterns of variations in the biomarkers were analysed using generalised linear models. Cox-proportional hazard analyses investigated the association between kidney function (as assessed by the above-mentioned biochemical data) and post-operative length of stay and mortality. All patients were stratified for CRD according to their eGFR. RESULTS: serum urea and creatinine were significantly, positively correlated with age. After adjusting for age and sex, risk of mortality was positively related to six-variable eGFR and creatinine, and marginally so for urea. One-year mortality risk thus worsened with stages of CRD (1-4), increasing age and male gender. Risk of discharge from trauma ward, the length of stay in trauma ward and the overall length of stay were not related to urea and creatinine, but were negatively related to both four- and six-variable eGFR. CONCLUSIONS: the study has identified elderly renal-impaired males as the subgroup of patients most at risk for poor survival. This subgroup may require a more targeted approach to the management of their fluid and electrolyte homoeostasis to help improve their outcomes.

Association between respiratory prescribing, air pollution and deprivation, in primary health care.

BACKGROUND: We investigated the association between respiratory prescribing, air quality and deprivation in primary health care. Most previous studies have used data from secondary and tertiary care to quantify air pollution effects on exacerbations of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, these outcomes capture patients who suffer from relatively severe symptoms. METHODS: This is a population-based ecological study. We analysed respiratory medication (salbutamol) prescribed monthly by 63 primary care practices, UK. Firstly, we captured the area-wide seasonal variation in prescribing. Then, using the area-wide variation in prescribing as an offset, we built a mixed-effects model to assess the remaining variation in relation to air quality and demographic variables. RESULTS: An increase of 10 µg/m(3) in ambient PM10 was associated with an increase of 1% (95% CI: 0.1-2%) in salbutamol prescribing. An increase of 1 SD in income and employment deprivation was associated with an increase of 20.5% (95% CI: 8.8-33.4%) and 14.7% (95% CI: 4.3-26.2%) in salbutamol prescribing rate, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The study provides evidence that monthly respiratory prescribing in primary care is a useful indicator of the extent to which air pollution exacerbates asthma and COPD symptoms. Respiratory prescribing was higher on deprived populations.

Depression in Sjögren's syndrome mediates the relationship between pain, fatigue, sleepiness, and overall quality of life.

Objectives: Sjögren's syndrome (SS) includes many extra-glandular symptoms such as fatigue, pain, sleepiness and depression, which impact on quality of life (QoL). These symptoms also influence each other and could be linked by autonomic nervous system (ANS) dysregulation. Our aim was to model the role of putative predictive variables, including depression in the relationships between ANS function, fatigue, and QoL in SS. Methods: Cross-sectional analysis of self-reported data from the multicentre UK primary SS registry. The Composite Autonomic Symptom Scale (COMPASS) was used to assess autonomic function, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) to assess anxiety and depression and the EuroQol-5 Dimension (EQ-5D) to assess QoL. Validated scales were used for other clinical variables. Using multiple regression analysis and structural equation modelling (SEM), we investigated how the QoL of people with SS is impacted by the direct and indirect effects of fatigue, sleepiness, depression, symptom burden and ANS function, and their interactions. Results: Data was obtained for 1046 people with SS, 56% COMPASS completers. Symptoms of ANS dysregulation were common. Participants with ANS dysregulation had more severe depression, anxiety, dryness, fatigue, pain, sleepiness and QoL (P < 0.01 for all). Depression, anxiety, dryness, and pain were independent predictors of ANS function in the multiple regression model (P < 0.05 for all). ANS function could not be included in the SEM. The SEM model had good fit to the data (comparative fit index = 0.998) and showed that, in people with SS, depression mediates the effects of pain, fatigue and sleepiness on QoL. Conclusion: Our results show that diagnosing and treating depression in people with SS could have direct positive impact on QoL, and significantly ameliorate the impact of fatigue and pain.

A systems approach framework for evaluating tree restoration interventions for social and ecological outcomes in rural tropical landscapes.

The science guiding design and evaluation of restoration interventions in tropical landscapes is dominated by ecological processes and outcomes and lacks indicators and methods that integrate human wellbeing into the restoration process. We apply a new systems approach framework for tree restoration in forest-agricultural landscapes to show how this shortcoming can be addressed. Demonstrating 'proof of concept', we tested statistical models underlying the framework pathways with data collected from a case study in Tanzania. Local community perceptions of nature's values were not affected by levels of self-reported wildlife-induced crop damage. But mapped predictions from the systems approach under a tree restoration scenario suggested differential outcomes for biodiversity indicators and altered spatial patterns of crop damage risk, expected to jeopardize human wellbeing. The predictions map anticipated trade-offs in costs and benefits of restoration scenarios, which we have started to explore with stakeholders to identify restoration opportunities that consider local knowledge, value systems and human wellbeing. We suggest that the framework be applied to other landscapes to identify commonalities and differences in forest landscape restoration outcomes under varying governance and land use systems. This should form a foundation for evidence-based implementation of the global drive for forest landscape restoration, at local scales. This article is part of the theme issue 'Understanding forest landscape restoration: reinforcing scientific foundations for the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration'.

Computed tomography-based radiomic markers are independent prognosticators of survival in advanced laryngeal cancer: a pilot study.

OBJECTIVE: Advanced laryngeal cancers are clinically complex; there is a paucity of modern decision-making models to guide tumour-specific management. This pilot study aims to identify computed tomography-based radiomic features that may predict survival and enhance prognostication. METHODS: Pre-biopsy, contrast-enhanced computed tomography scans were assembled from a retrospective cohort (n = 72) with advanced laryngeal cancers (T3 and T4). The LIFEx software was used for radiomic feature extraction. Two features: shape compacity (irregularity of tumour volume) and grey-level zone length matrix - grey-level non-uniformity (tumour heterogeneity) were selected via least absolute shrinkage and selection operator-based Cox regression and explored for prognostic potential. RESULTS: A greater shape compacity (hazard ratio 2.89) and grey-level zone length matrix - grey-level non-uniformity (hazard ratio 1.64) were significantly associated with worse 5-year disease-specific survival (p < 0.05). Cox regression models yielded a superior C-index when incorporating radiomic features (0.759) versus clinicopathological variables alone (0.655). CONCLUSIONS: Two radiomic features were identified as independent prognostic biomarkers. A multi-centre prospective study is necessary for further exploration. Integrated radiomic models may refine the treatment of advanced laryngeal cancers.

Erratum: Author Correction: The influence of HLA genotype on the development of metal hypersensitivity following joint replacement.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/s43856-022-00137-0.].

The influence of HLA genotype on the development of metal hypersensitivity following joint replacement.

Background: Over five million joint replacements are performed across the world each year. Cobalt chrome (CoCr) components are used in most of these procedures. Some patients develop delayed-type hypersensitivity (DTH) responses to CoCr implants, resulting in tissue damage and revision surgery. DTH is unpredictable and genetic links have yet to be definitively established. Methods: At a single site, we carried out an initial investigation to identify HLA alleles associated with development of DTH following metal-on-metal hip arthroplasty. We then recruited patients from other centres to train and validate an algorithm incorporating patient age, gender, HLA genotype, and blood metal concentrations to predict the development of DTH. Accuracy of the modelling was assessed using performance metrics including time-dependent receiver operator curves. Results: Using next-generation sequencing, here we determine the HLA genotypes of 606 patients. 176 of these patients had experienced failure of their prostheses; the remaining 430 remain asymptomatic at a mean follow up of twelve years. We demonstrate that the development of DTH is associated with patient age, gender, the magnitude of metal exposure, and the presence of certain HLA class II alleles. We show that the predictive algorithm developed from this investigation performs to an accuracy suitable for clinical use, with weighted mean survival probability errors of 1.8% and 3.1% for pre-operative and post-operative models respectively. Conclusions: The development of DTH following joint replacement appears to be determined by the interaction between implant wear and a patient's genotype. The algorithm described in this paper may improve implant selection and help direct patient surveillance following surgery. Further consideration should be given towards understanding patient-specific responses to different biomaterials.

Association between maternal exposure to ambient air pollution and congenital heart disease: A register-based spatiotemporal analysis.

Recent studies have linked maternal exposure to air pollution with a range of adverse pregnancy outcomes. However, the available evidence linking this exposure to congenital anomalies is still limited and controversial. The present case-control study tested the hypothesis that maternal exposure to ambient black smoke and sulfur dioxide is a risk factor for the occurrence of congenital heart disease. The authors used registry-based data on congenital heart disease for the population of the northeast of England in 1985-1996. A 2-stage spatiotemporal model was developed to predict weekly black smoke and sulfur dioxide levels at each maternal place of residence. Controls were frequency-matched to cases by year of birth (control-to-case ratio of 4:1). Two sets of analyses were performed, using predicted mean values of exposure and 1,000 simulated scenarios of exposure. The analyses were adjusted for birth year, socioeconomic status, infant sex, season of conception, and degree of urbanity. The authors found a weak association between maternal exposure to black smoke and congenital malformations of cardiac chambers and connections only when using exposure as a continuous variable. When the authors used quartiles of exposure, odds ratios did not show a dose-response relation for consecutive quartiles. For sulfur dioxide, the results were not indicative of any association.

Bacillus Calmette-Guérin vaccination reduces the severity and progression of tuberculosis in badgers.

Control of bovine tuberculosis (TB) in cattle has proven particularly challenging where reservoirs of infection exist in wildlife populations. In Britain and Ireland, control is hampered by a reservoir of infection in Eurasian badgers (Meles meles). Badger culling has positive and negative effects on bovine TB in cattle and is difficult, costly and controversial. Here we show that Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination of captive badgers reduced the progression, severity and excretion of Mycobacterium bovis infection after experimental challenge. In a clinical field study, BCG vaccination of free-living badgers reduced the incidence of positive serological test results by 73.8 per cent. In common with other species, BCG did not appear to prevent infection of badgers subjected to experimental challenge, but did significantly reduce the overall disease burden. BCG vaccination of badgers could comprise an important component of a comprehensive programme of measures to control bovine TB in cattle.

Ambient air pollution and congenital heart disease: a register-based study.

Maternal exposure to ambient air pollution has increasingly been linked to adverse pregnancy outcomes. The evidence linking this exposure to congenital anomalies is still limited and controversial. This case-control study investigated the association between maternal exposure to ambient particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 µm (PM(10)), sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), nitrogen dioxide, nitric oxide (NO), ozone (O(3)), and carbon monoxide (CO) and the occurrence of congenital heart disease in the population of Northeast England (1993-2003). Each case and control was assigned weekly average (weeks 3-8 of pregnancy) of pollutant levels measured by the closest monitor to the mother's residential postcode. Using exposure as both continuous and categorical variables, logistic regression models were constructed to quantify the adjusted odds ratios of exposure to air pollutants and the occurrence of each outcome group. We found exposure to CO and NO to be associated with ventricular septal defect and cardiac septa malformations. CO was also associated with congenital pulmonary valve stenosis and NO with pooled cases of congenital heart disease and tetralogy of Fallot. Findings for SO(2), O(3) and PM(10) were less consistent.

Identifying the climatic drivers of honey bee disease in England and Wales.

Honey bee colony health has received considerable attention in recent years, with many studies highlighting multifactorial issues contributing to colony losses. Disease and weather are consistently highlighted as primary drivers of colony loss, yet little is understood about how they interact. Here, we combined disease records from government honey bee health inspections with meteorological data from the CEDA to identify how weather impacts EFB, AFB, CBP, varroosis, chalkbrood and sacbrood. Using R-INLA, we determined how different meteorological variables influenced disease prevalence and disease risk. Temperature caused an increase in the risk of both varroosis and sacbrood, but overall, the weather had a varying effect on the six honey bee diseases. The risk of disease was also spatially varied and was impacted by the meteorological variables. These results are an important step in identifying the impacts of climate change on honey bees and honey bee diseases.