Predicting lymphatic filariasis elimination in data-limited settings: A reconstructive computational framework for combining data generation and model discovery.

Although there is increasing importance placed on the use of mathematical models for the effective design and management of long-term parasite elimination, it is becoming clear that transmission models are most useful when they reflect the processes pertaining to local infection dynamics as opposed to generalized dynamics. Such localized models must also be developed even when the data required for characterizing local transmission processes are limited or incomplete, as is often the case for neglected tropical diseases, including the disease system studied in this work, viz. lymphatic filariasis (LF). Here, we draw on progress made in the field of computational knowledge discovery to present a reconstructive simulation framework that addresses these challenges by facilitating the discovery of both data and models concurrently in areas where we have insufficient observational data. Using available data from eight sites from Nigeria and elsewhere, we demonstrate that our data-model discovery system is able to estimate local transmission models and missing pre-control infection information using generalized knowledge of filarial transmission dynamics, monitoring survey data, and details of historical interventions. Forecasts of the impacts of interventions carried out in each site made by the models estimated using the reconstructed baseline data matched temporal infection observations and provided useful information regarding when transmission interruption is likely to have occurred. Assessments of elimination and resurgence probabilities based on the models also suggest a protective effect of vector control against the reemergence of LF transmission after stopping drug treatments. The reconstructive computational framework for model and data discovery developed here highlights how coupling models with available data can generate new knowledge about complex, data-limited systems, and support the effective management of disease programs in the face of critical data gaps.

Assessing the WHO 50% prevalence threshold in school-aged children as indication for treatment of urogenital schistosomiasis in adults in central Nigeria.

Preventive chemotherapy with praziquantel is recommended in adults by the World Health Organization when prevalence of schistosomiasis in school-aged children (SAC) is ≥ 50%. This study ascertained the value of this threshold in predicting prevalence and intensity of Schistosoma hematobium (SH) infection in adults in central Nigeria. We evaluated urogenital schistosomiasis prevalence in 1,164 adults: 659 adults in 12 communities where mean hematuria among SAC in 2008 was 26.6% and 505 adults in 7 communities where the mean hematuria among SAC in 2008 was 70.4%. No statistically significant differences were found between the two groups of adults in prevalence of hematuria, prevalence of SH eggs, or intensity of infections. We conclude that, in this setting, the SAC threshold is not useful for treatment decisions in adults. Given the increased risk of subtle morbidity or urogenital schistosomiasis as a risk factor for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), more liberal treatment of adults with praziquantel is warranted.

Evidence for stopping mass drug administration for lymphatic filariasis in some, but not all local government areas of Plateau and Nasarawa States, Nigeria.

An average of six annual rounds of ivermectin and albendazole were distributed in Plateau and Nasarawa States, Nigeria, to eliminate lymphatic filariasis. From 2007 to 2008, population-based surveys were implemented in all 30 local government areas (LGAs) of the two states to determine the prevalence of Wuchereria bancrofti antigenemia to assess which LGA mass drug administration (MDA) could be halted. In total, 36,681 persons from 7,819 households were examined for filarial antigen as determined by immunochromatographic card tests. Overall antigen prevalence was 3.05% (exact upper 95% confidence interval [CI] = 3.41%) with an upper 95% CI range by LGA of 0.50-19.3%. Among 3,233 children 6-7 years of age, overall antigen prevalence was 1.71% (exact upper 95% CI = 2.19%), too high to recommend generally halting MDA in the two-state area. However, based on criteria of < 2% antigenemia among persons > 2 years of age, stopping MDA was recommended for 10 LGAs.

Epidemiological and entomological evaluations after six years or more of mass drug administration for lymphatic filariasis elimination in Nigeria.

The current strategy for interrupting transmission of lymphatic filariasis (LF) is annual mass drug administration (MDA), at good coverage, for 6 or more years. We describe our programmatic experience delivering the MDA combination of ivermectin and albendazole in Plateau and Nasarawa states in central Nigeria, where LF is caused by anopheline transmitted Wuchereria bancrofti. Baseline LF mapping using rapid blood antigen detection tests showed mean local government area (LGA) prevalence of 23% (range 4-62%). MDA was launched in 2000 and by 2003 had been scaled up to full geographic coverage in all 30 LGAs in the two states; over 26 million cumulative directly observed treatments were provided by community drug distributors over the intervention period. Reported treatment coverage for each round was ≥85% of the treatment eligible population of 3.7 million, although a population-based coverage survey in 2003 showed lower coverage (72.2%; 95% CI 65.5-79.0%). To determine impact on transmission, we monitored three LF infection parameters (microfilaremia, antigenemia, and mosquito infection) in 10 sentinel villages (SVs) serially. The last monitoring was done in 2009, when SVs had been treated for 7-10 years. Microfilaremia in 2009 decreased by 83% from baseline (from 4.9% to 0.8%); antigenemia by 67% (from 21.6% to 7.2%); mosquito infection rate (all larval stages) by 86% (from 3.1% to 0.4%); and mosquito infectivity rate (L3 stages) by 76% (from 1.3% to 0.3%). All changes were statistically significant. Results suggest that LF transmission has been interrupted in 5 of the 10 SVs, based on 2009 finding of microfilaremia ≥1% and/or L3 stages in mosquitoes. Four of the five SVs where transmission persists had baseline antigenemia prevalence of >25%. Longer or additional interventions (e.g., more frequent MDA treatments, insecticidal bed nets) should be considered for 'hot spots' where transmission is ongoing.