Derivation and Internal Validation of a Novel Risk Assessment Tool to Identify Infants and Young Children at Risk for Post-Discharge Mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Monrovia, Liberia.

OBJECTIVE: To derive and validate internally a novel risk assessment tool to identify young children at risk for all-cause mortality ≤60 days of discharge from hospitals in sub-Saharan Africa. STUDY DESIGN: We performed a prospective observational cohort study of children aged 1-59 months discharged from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and John F. Kennedy Medical Center in Monrovia, Liberia (2019 to 2022). Caregivers received telephone calls up to 60 days after discharge to ascertain participant vital status. We collected socioeconomic, demographic, clinical, and anthropometric data during hospitalization. Candidate variables with P<0.20 in bivariate analyses were included in a multivariable logistic regression model with best subset selection to identify risk factors for the outcome. We internally validated our tool using bootstrapping with 500 repetitions. RESULTS: There were 1,933 young children enrolled in the study. The median (interquartile range) age was 11 (4, 23) months and 58.7% were male. In total, 67 (3.5%) died during follow-up. Ten variables contributed to our tool (total possible score 82). Cancer (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 10.6, 95% CI 2.58, 34.6), pedal edema (aOR 6.94, 95% CI 1.69, 22.6), and leaving against medical advice (aOR 6.46, 95% CI 2.46, 15.3) were most predictive of post-discharge mortality. Our risk assessment tool demonstrated good discriminatory value (optimism corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.77), high precision, and sufficient calibration. CONCLUSIONS: After validation, this tool may be used to identify young children at risk for post-discharge mortality to direct resources for follow-up of high-risk children.

Morbidity and unplanned healthcare encounters after hospital discharge among young children in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Monrovia, Liberia.

BACKGROUND: Researchers and healthcare providers have paid little attention to morbidity and unplanned healthcare encounters for children following hospital discharge in low- and middle-income countries. Our objective was to compare symptoms and unplanned healthcare encounters among children aged <5 years who survived with those who died within 60 days of hospital discharge through follow-up phone calls. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of a prospective observational cohort of children aged <5 years discharged from neonatal and paediatric wards of two national referral hospitals in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Monrovia, Liberia. Caregivers of enrolled participants received phone calls 7, 14, 30, 45, and 60 days after hospital discharge to record symptoms, unplanned healthcare encounters, and vital status. We used logistic regression to determine the association between reported symptoms and unplanned healthcare encounters with 60-day post-discharge mortality. RESULTS: A total of 4243 participants were enrolled and had 60-day vital status available; 138 (3.3%) died. For every additional symptom ever reported following discharge, there was a 35% greater likelihood of post-discharge mortality (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.35, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10 to 1.66; p=0.004). The greatest survival difference was noted for children who had difficulty breathing (2.1% among those who survived vs 36.0% among those who died, p<0.001). Caregivers who took their child home from the hospital against medical advice during the initial hospitalisation had over eight times greater odds of post-discharge mortality (aOR 8.06, 95% CI 3.87 to 16.3; p<0.001) and those who were readmitted to a hospital had 3.42 greater odds (95% CI 1.55 to 8.47; p=0.004) of post-discharge mortality than those who did not seek care when adjusting for site, sociodemographic factors, and clinical variables. CONCLUSION: Surveillance for symptoms and repeated admissions following hospital discharge by healthcare providers is crucial to identify children at risk for post-discharge mortality.

Identifying neonates at risk for post-discharge mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and Monrovia, Liberia: Derivation and internal validation of a novel risk assessment tool.

INTRODUCTION: The immediate period after hospital discharge carries a large burden of childhood mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Our objective was to derive and internally validate a risk assessment tool to identify neonates discharged from the neonatal ward at risk for 60-day post-discharge mortality. METHODS: We conducted a prospective observational cohort study of neonates discharged from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, and John F Kennedy Medical Centre in Monrovia, Liberia. Research staff called caregivers to ascertain vital status up to 60 days after discharge. We conducted multivariable logistic regression analyses with best subset selection to identify socioeconomic, demographic, clinical, and anthropometric factors associated with post-discharge mortality. We used adjusted log coefficients to assign points to each variable and internally validated our tool with bootstrap validation with 500 repetitions. RESULTS: There were 2344 neonates discharged and 2310 (98.5%) had post-discharge outcomes available. The median (IQR) age at discharge was 8 (4, 15) days; 1238 (53.6%) were male. In total, 71 (3.1%) died during follow-up (26.8% within 7 days of discharge). Leaving against medical advice (adjusted OR [aOR] 5.62, 95% CI 2.40 to 12.10) and diagnosis of meconium aspiration (aOR 6.98, 95% CI 1.69 to 21.70) conferred the greatest risk for post-discharge mortality. The risk assessment tool included nine variables (total possible score=63) and had an optimism corrected area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.77 (95% CI 0.75 to 0.80). A score of ≥6 was most optimal (sensitivity 68.3% [95% CI 64.8% to 71.5%], specificity 72.1% [95% CI 71.5% to 72.7%]). CONCLUSIONS: A small number of factors predicted all-cause, 60-day mortality after discharge from neonatal wards in Tanzania and Liberia. After external validation, this risk assessment tool may facilitate clinical decision making for eligibility for discharge and the direction of resources to follow-up high risk neonates.

Predictive value of clinician impression for readmission and postdischarge mortality among neonates and young children in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Monrovia, Liberia.

BACKGROUND: There are no validated clinical decision aids to identify neonates and young children at risk of hospital readmission or postdischarge mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, leaving the decision to discharge a child to a clinician's impression. Our objective was to determine the precision of clinician impression to identify neonates and young children at risk for readmission and postdischarge mortality. METHODS: We conducted a survey study nested in a prospective observational cohort of neonates and children aged 1-59 months followed 60 days after hospital discharge from Muhimbili National Hospital in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania or John F. Kennedy Medical Center in Monrovia, Liberia. Clinicians who discharged each enrolled patient were surveyed to determine their perceived probability of the patient's risk of 60-day hospital readmission or postdischarge mortality. We calculated the area under the precision-recall curve (AUPRC) to determine the precision of clinician impression for both outcomes. RESULTS: Of 4247 discharged patients, 3896 (91.7%) had available clinician surveys and 3847 (98.7%) had 60-day outcomes available: 187 (4.8%) were readmitted and 120 (3.1%) died within 60 days of hospital discharge. Clinician impression had poor precision in identifying neonates and young children at risk of hospital readmission (AUPRC: 0.06, 95% CI: 0.04 to 0.08) and postdischarge mortality (AUPRC: 0.05, 95% CI: 0.03 to 0.08). Patients for whom clinicians attributed inability to pay for future medical treatment as the reason for risk for unplanned hospital readmission had 4.76 times the odds hospital readmission (95% CI: 1.31 to 17.25, p=0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Given the poor precision of clinician impression alone to identify neonates and young children at risk of hospital readmission and postdischarge mortality, validated clinical decision aids are needed to aid in the identification of young children at risk for these outcomes.

Facilitators, barriers, and key influencers of breastfeeding among low birthweight infants: a qualitative study in India, Malawi, and Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Low birthweight (LBW) infants are at increased risk of morbidity and mortality. Exclusive breastfeeding up to six months is recommended to help them thrive through infection prevention, growth improvements, and enhancements in neurodevelopment. However, limited data exist on the feeding experiences of LBW infants, their caregivers and key community influencers. The qualitative component of the Low Birthweight Infant Feeding Exploration (LIFE) study aimed to understand practices, facilitators, and barriers to optimal feeding options in the first six months for LBW infants in low-resource settings. METHODS: This study was conducted in four sites in India, Malawi, and Tanzania from July 2019 to August 2020. We conducted 37 focus group discussions with mothers and family members of LBW infants and community leaders and 142 in-depth interviews with healthcare providers, government officials, and supply chain and donor human milk (DHM) experts. Data were analyzed using a framework approach. RESULTS: All participants believed that mother's own milk was best for LBW infants. Direct breastfeeding was predominant and feeding expressed breast milk and infant formula were rare. DHM was a new concept for most. Adequate maternal nutrition, lactation support, and privacy in the facility aided breastfeeding and expression, but perceived insufficient milk, limited feeding counseling, and infant immaturity were common barriers. Most believed that DHM uptake could be enabled through community awareness by overcoming misconceptions, safety concerns, and perceived family resistance. CONCLUSION: This study fills an evidence gap in LBW infant feeding practices and their facilitators and barriers in resource-limited settings. LBW infants face unique feeding challenges such as poor latching and tiring at the breast. Similarly, their mothers are faced with numerous difficulties, including attainment of adequate milk supply, breast pain and emotional stress. Lactation support and feeding counseling could address obstacles faced by mothers and infants by providing psychosocial, verbal and physical support to empower mothers with skills, knowledge and confidence and facilitate earlier, more and better breast milk feeding. Findings on DHM are critical to the future development of human milk banks and highlight the need to solicit partnership from stakeholders in the community and health system.

A Prospective, observational cohort study to identify neonates and children at risk of postdischarge mortality in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania and Monrovia, Liberia: the PPDM study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Over half of the 5 million annual deaths among children aged 0-59 months occur in sub-Saharan Africa. The period immediately after hospitalisation is a vulnerable time in the life of a child in sub-Saharan Africa as postdischarge mortality rates are as high as 1%-18%. Identification of neonates and children who are at highest risk for postdischarge mortality may allow for the direction of interventions to target patients at highest risk. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The Predicting Post-Discharge Mortality study is a prospective, observational study being conducted at Muhimbili National Hospital (Dar es Salaam, Tanzania) and John F. Kennedy Medical Center (Monrovia, Liberia). The aim is to derive and validate two, age population specific, clinical prediction rules for the identification of neonates (n=2000) and children aged 1-59 months (n=2000) at risk for all-cause mortality within 60 days of discharge from the neonatal intensive care unit or paediatric ward. Caregivers of participants will receive phone calls 7, 14, 30, 45 and 60 days after discharge to assess vital status. Candidate predictor variables will include demographic, anthropometric and clinical factors. Elastic net regression will be used to derive the clinical prediction rules. Bootstrapped selection with repetitions will be used for internal validation. Planned secondary analyses include the external validation of existing clinical prediction models, determination of clinicians' ability to identify neonates and children at risk of postdischarge mortality at discharge, analysis of factors associated with hospital readmission and unplanned clinic visits and description of health-seeking behaviours in the postdischarge period. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study received ethical clearance from the Tanzania National Institute of Medical Research, Muhimbili University of Health and Allied Sciences, the John F. Kennedy Medical Center Institutional Review Board, and the Boston Children's Hospital Institutional Review Board. Findings will be disseminated at scientific conferences and as peer-reviewed publications.