Characteristics of people living in Italy after a cancer diagnosis in 2010 and projections to 2020.

BACKGROUND: Estimates of cancer prevalence are widely based on limited duration, often including patients living after a cancer diagnosis made in the previous 5 years and less frequently on complete prevalence (i.e., including all patients regardless of the time elapsed since diagnosis). This study aims to provide estimates of complete cancer prevalence in Italy by sex, age, and time since diagnosis for all cancers combined, and for selected cancer types. Projections were made up to 2020, overall and by time since diagnosis. METHODS: Data were from 27 Italian population-based cancer registries, covering 32% of the Italian population, able to provide at least 7 years of registration as of December 2009 and follow-up of vital status as of December 2013. The data were used to compute the limited-duration prevalence, in order to estimate the complete prevalence by means of the COMPREV software. RESULTS: In 2010, 2,637,975 persons were estimated to live in Italy after a cancer diagnosis, 1.2 million men and 1.4 million women, or 4.6% of the Italian population. A quarter of male prevalent cases had prostate cancer (n = 305,044), while 42% of prevalent women had breast cancer (n = 604,841). More than 1.5 million people (2.7% of Italians) were alive since 5 or more years after diagnosis and 20% since ≥15 years. It is projected that, in 2020 in Italy, there will be 3.6 million prevalent cancer cases (+ 37% vs 2010). The largest 10-year increases are foreseen for prostate (+ 85%) and for thyroid cancers (+ 79%), and for long-term survivors diagnosed since 20 or more years (+ 45%). Among the population aged ≥75 years, 22% will have had a previous cancer diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The number of persons living after a cancer diagnosis is estimated to rise of approximately 3% per year in Italy. The availability of detailed estimates and projections of the complete prevalence are intended to help the implementation of guidelines aimed to enhance the long-term follow-up of cancer survivors and to contribute their rehabilitation needs.

Changes in life expectancy for cancer patients over time since diagnosis.

The aims of this study were to provide life expectancy (LE) estimates of cancer patients at diagnosis and LE changes over time since diagnosis to describe the impact of cancer during patients' entire lives. Cancer patients' LE was calculated by standard period life table methodology using the relative survival of Italian patients diagnosed in population-based cancer registries in 1985-2011 with follow-up to 2013. Data were smoothed using a polynomial model and years of life lost (YLL) were calculated as the difference between patients' LE and that of the age- and sex-matched general population. The YLL at diagnosis was highest at the youngest age at diagnosis, steadily decreasing thereafter. For patients diagnosed at age 45 years, the YLL was above 20 for lung and ovarian cancers and below 6 for thyroid cancer in women and melanoma in men. LE progressively increased in patients surviving the first years, decreasing thereafter, to approach that of the general population. YLL in the long run mainly depends on attained age. Providing quantitative data is essential to better define clinical follow-up and plan health care resource allocation. These results help assess when the excess risk of death from tumour becomes negligible in cancer survivors.