Acute pancreatitis induces a transient hypercoagulable state in murine models.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Although understudied, risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) appears to be increased during acute pancreatitis (AP). We aimed to further characterize a hypercoagulable state associated with AP utilizing thromboelastography (TEG), a readily available, point of care test. METHODS: AP was induced in C57/Bl6 mice using l-arginine and caerulein. TEG was performed with citrated native samples. The maximum amplitude (MA) and coagulation index (CI), a composite marker of coagulability, were evaluated. Platelet aggregation was assessed using whole blood collagen-activated platelet impedance aggregometry. Circulating tissue factor (TF), the initiator of extrinsic coagulation, was measured with ELISA. A VTE model using IVC ligation followed by measurement of clot size and weight was evaluated. After IRB approval and consent, blood samples from patients hospitalized with a diagnosis of AP were evaluated by TEG. RESULTS: Mice with AP displayed a significant increase in MA and CI, consistent with hypercoagulability. Hypercoagulability peaked at 24 h after induction of pancreatitis, then returned to baseline by 72 h. AP resulted in significantly increased platelet aggregation and elevated circulating TF. Increased clot formation with AP was observed in an in vivo model of deep vein thrombosis. In a proof of concept, correlative study, over two thirds of patients with AP demonstrated an elevated MA and CI compared to the normal range, consistent with hypercoagulability. CONCLUSIONS: Murine acute pancreatitis results in a transient hypercoagulable state that can be assessed by TEG. Correlative evidence for hypercoagulability was also demonstrated in human pancreatitis. Further study to correlate coagulation measures to incidence of VTE in AP is warranted.

Development of a Prognostic Nomogram and Nomogram Software Application Tool to Predict Overall Survival and Disease-Free Survival After Curative-Intent Gastrectomy for Gastric Cancer.

BACKGROUND: We sought to derive and validate a prediction model of survival and recurrence among Western patients undergoing resection of gastric cancer. METHODS: Patients who underwent curative-intent surgery for gastric cancer at seven US institutions and a major Italian center from 2000 to 2020 were included. Variables included in the multivariable Cox models were identified using an automated model selection procedure based on an algorithm. Best models were selected using the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The performance of the models was internally cross-validated via the bootstrap resampling procedure. Discrimination was evaluated using the Harrell's Concordance Index and accuracy was evaluated using calibration plots. Nomograms were made available as online tools. RESULTS: Overall, 895 patients met inclusion criteria. Age (hazard ratio [HR] 1.47, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.17-1.84), presence of preoperative comorbidities (HR 1.66, 95% CI 1.14-2.41), lymph node ratio (LNR; HR 1.72, 95% CI 1.42-2.01), and lymphovascular invasion (HR 1.81, 95% CI 1.33-2.45) were associated with overall survival (OS; all p < 0.01), whereas tumor location (HR 1.93, 95% CI 1.23-3.02), T category (Tis-T1 vs. T3: HR 0.31, 95% CI 0.14-0.66), LNR (HR 1.82, 95% CI 1.45-2.28), and lymphovascular invasion (HR 1.49; 95% CI 1.01-2.22) were associated with disease-free survival (DFS; all p < 0.05) The models demonstrated good discrimination on internal validation relative to OS (C-index 0.70) and DFS (C-index 0.74). CONCLUSIONS: A web-based nomograms to predict OS and DFS among gastric cancer patients following resection demonstrated good accuracy and discrimination and good performance on internal validation.

Formal robotic training diminishes the learning curve for robotic pancreatoduodenectomy: Implications for new programs in complex robotic surgery.

INTRODUCTION: The learning curve associated with robotic pancreatoduodenectomy (RPD) is a hurdle for new programs to achieve optimal results. Since early analysis, robotic training has recently expanded, and the RPD approach has been refined. The purpose of this study is to examine RPD outcomes for surgeons who implemented a new program after receiving formal RPD training to determine if such training reduces the learning curve. METHODS: Outcomes for consecutive patients undergoing RPD at a single tertiary institution were compared to optimal RPD benchmarks from a previously reported learning curve analysis. Two surgical oncologists with formal RPD training performed all operations with one surgeon as bedside assistant and the other at the console. RESULTS: Forty consecutive RPD operations were evaluated. Mean operative time was 354 ± 54 min, and blood loss was 300 ml. Length of stay was 7 days. Three patients (7.5%) underwent conversion to open. Pancreatic fistula affected five patients (12.5%). Operative time was stable over the study and lower than the reported benchmark. These RPD operative outcomes were similar to reported surgeon outcomes after the learning curve. CONCLUSION: This study suggests formal robotic training facilitates safe and efficient adoption of RPD for new programs, reducing or eliminating the learning curve.

Endoscopic Ultrasound-Guided Confocal Laser Endomicroscopy Increases Accuracy of Differentiation of Pancreatic Cystic Lesions.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Imaging patterns from endoscopic ultrasound (EUS)-guided needle-based confocal laser endomicroscopy (nCLE) have been associated with specific pancreatic cystic lesions (PCLs). We compared the accuracy of EUS with nCLE in differentiating mucinous from nonmucinous PCLs with that of measurement of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and cytology analysis. METHODS: We performed a prospective study of 144 consecutive patients with a suspected PCL (≥20 mm) who underwent EUS with fine-needle aspiration of pancreatic cysts from June 2015 through December 2018 at a single center; 65 patients underwent surgical resection. Surgical samples were analyzed by histology (reference standard). During EUS, the needle with the miniprobe was placed in the cyst, which was analyzed by nCLE. Fluid was aspirated and analyzed for level of CEA and by cytology. We compared the accuracy of nCLE in differentiating mucinous from nonmucinous lesions with that of measurement of CEA and cytology analysis. RESULTS: The mean size of dominant cysts was 36.4 ± 15.7 mm and the mean duration of nCLE imaging was 7.3 ± 2.8 min. Among the 65 subjects with surgically resected cysts analyzed histologically, 86.1% had at least 1 worrisome feature based on the 2012 Fukuoka criteria. Measurement of CEA and cytology analysis identified mucinous PCLs with 74% sensitivity, 61% specificity, and 71% accuracy. EUS with nCLE identified mucinous PCLs with 98% sensitivity, 94% specificity, and 97% accuracy. nCLE was more accurate in classifying mucinous vs nonmucinous cysts than the standard method (P < .001). The overall incidence of postprocedure acute pancreatitis was 3.5% (5 of 144); all episodes were mild, based on the revised Atlanta criteria. CONCLUSIONS: In a prospective study, we found that analysis of cysts by nCLE identified mucinous cysts with greater accuracy than measurement of CEA and cytology analysis. EUS with nCLE can be used to differentiate mucinous from nonmucinous PCLs. ClincialTrials.gov no: NCT02516488.

Tumor burden score predicts tumor recurrence of non-functional pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors after curative resection.

BACKGROUND: To investigate the feasibility of Tumor Burden Score (TBS) to predict tumor recurrence following curative-intent resection of non-functional pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (NF-pNETs). METHOD: The TBS cut-off values were determined by a statistical tool, X-tile. The influence of TBS on recurrence-free survival (RFS) was examined. RESULTS: Among 842 NF-pNETs patients, there was an incremental worsening of RFS as the TBS increased (5-year RFS, low, medium, and high TBS: 92.0%, 73.3%, and 59.3%, respectively; P < 0.001). TBS (AUC 0.74) out-performed both maximum tumor size (AUC 0.65) and number of tumors (AUC 0.5) to predict RFS (TBS vs. maximum tumor size, p = 0.05; TBS vs. number of tumors, p < 0.01). The impact of margin (low TBS: R0 80.4% vs. R1 71.9%, p = 0.01 vs. medium TBS: R0 55.8% vs. R1 37.5%, p = 0.67 vs. high TBS: R0 31.9% vs. R1 12.0%, p = 0.11) and nodal (5-year RFS, low TBS: N0 94.9% vs. N1 68.4%, p < 0.01 vs. medium TBS: N0 81.8% vs. N1 55.4%, p < 0.01 vs. high TBS: N0 58.0% vs. N1 54.2%, p = 0.15) status on 5-year RFS outcomes disappeared among patients who had higher TBS. CONCLUSIONS: TBS was strongly associated with risk of recurrence and outperformed both tumor size and number alone.

Compliance with preoperative care measures reduces surgical site infection after colorectal operation.

BACKGROUND: Surgical site infections (SSIs) are a major cause of morbidity complicating colorectal operations. Several evidence-based preoperative strategies are associated with decreased SSI rates. We hypothesize that compliance with multiple strategies is associated with lower incidence of SSI after the elective colorectal operation. METHODS: Preoperative care measure compliance before colorectal operations were assessed. Measures included antiseptic wash the night before and day of operation, oral antibiotic, and mechanical bowel preparation, antibiotic prophylaxis, Chloraprep skin preparation, and hair clipping. Rates of SSI after colectomy and other pertinent outcomes were stratified by full and partial compliance with preoperative measures. Exclusion criteria included bowel perforation, ischemia, complete obstruction, intra-abdominal abscess, and no intraoperative skin closure. RESULTS: Eight hundred twenty-six subjects underwent colectomy between 2010 and 2016; 469 met inclusion criteria. Compliance with all measures occurred in 214 (46%) and was independently associated with lower postoperative infection rates (odds ratio [OR], 0.37; confidence interval [CI], 0.16-0.85; P = 0.02). SSI occurred in 51 (11%): was superficial in 35 (7%); deep in 5 (1%); and organ space in 11 (2%). SSI rates were reduced from 16% (partial or no compliance group) to 5% (full compliance group). No stand-alone intervention was independently associated with decreased SSI rate. Multivariate analysis found the following factors associated with a lower risk of SSI: full compliance with all five process measures, lower BMI, nonsmoker, and minimally invasive operation. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: Compliance with preoperative care strategies reduces rates of SSI after colectomy with a cumulative effect more pronounced than any single intervention reinforcing the need for protocol-driven and evidence-based care for patients undergoing colorectal operations.

Minimally invasive versus open distal pancreatectomy for pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors: An analysis from the U.S. neuroendocrine tumor study group.

BACKGROUND: To determine short- and long-term oncologic outcomes after minimally invasive distal pancreatectomy (MIDP) with open distal pancreatectomy (ODP) for the treatment of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor (pNET). METHODS: The data of the patients who underwent curative MIDP or ODP for pNET between 2000 and 2016 were collected from a multi-institutional database. Propensity score matching (PSM) was used to generate 1:1 matched patients with MIDP and ODP. RESULTS: A total of 576 patients undergoing curative DP for pNET were included. Two hundred and fourteen (37.2%) patients underwent MIDP, whereas 362 (62.8%) underwent ODP. MIDP was increasingly performed over time (2000-2004: 9.3% vs 2013-2016: 54.8%; P < 0.01). In the matched cohort (n = 141 in each group), patients who underwent MIDP had less blood loss (median, 100 vs 200 mL, P < 0.001), lower incidence of Clavien-Dindo ≥ III complications (12.1% vs 24.8%, P = 0.026), and a shorter hospital stay versus ODP (median, 4 versus 7 days, P = 0.026). Patients who underwent MIDP had a lower incidence of recurrence (5-year cumulative recurrence, 10.1% vs 31.1%, P < 0.001), yet equivalent overall survival (OS) rate (5-year OS, 92.1% vs 90.9%, P = 0.550) compared with patients who underwent OPD. CONCLUSION: Patients undergoing MIDP over ODP in the treatment of pNET had comparable oncologic surgical metrics, as well as similar long-term OS.

Characterization and Optimal Management of High-risk Pancreatic Anastomoses During Pancreatoduodenectomy.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to identify the optimal fistula mitigation strategy following pancreaticoduodenectomy. BACKGROUND: The utility of technical strategies to prevent clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) following pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) may vary by the circumstances of the anastomosis. The Fistula Risk Score (FRS) identifies a distinct high-risk cohort (FRS 7 to 10) that demonstrates substantially worse clinical outcomes. The value of various fistula mitigation strategies in these particular high-stakes cases has not been previously explored. METHODS: This multinational study included 5323 PDs performed by 62 surgeons at 17 institutions. Mitigation strategies, including both technique related (ie, pancreatogastrostomy reconstruction; dunking; tissue patches) and the use of adjuvant strategies (ie, intraperitoneal drains; anastomotic stents; prophylactic octreotide; tissue sealants), were evaluated using multivariable regression analysis and propensity score matching. RESULTS: A total of 522 (9.8%) PDs met high-risk FRS criteria, with an observed CR-POPF rate of 29.1%. Pancreatogastrostomy, prophylactic octreotide, and omission of externalized stents were each associated with an increased rate of CR-POPF (all P < 0.001). In a multivariable model accounting for patient, surgeon, and institutional characteristics, the use of external stents [odds ratio (OR) 0.45, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.25-0.81] and the omission of prophylactic octreotide (OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.30-0.78) were independently associated with decreased CR-POPF occurrence. In the propensity score matched cohort, an "optimal" mitigation strategy (ie, externalized stent and no prophylactic octreotide) was associated with a reduced rate of CR-POPF (13.2% vs 33.5%, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The scenarios identified by the high-risk FRS zone represent challenging anastomoses associated with markedly elevated rates of fistula. Externalized stents and omission of prophylactic octreotide, in the setting of intraperitoneal drainage and pancreaticojejunostomy reconstruction, provides optimal outcomes.

Prognostic Impact of Serum Pancreastatin Following Chemoembolization for Neuroendocrine Tumors.

PURPOSE: The objective of this study was to investigate the prognostic impact of the biomarker serum pancreastatin in patients with metastatic neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) treated with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). METHODS: Patients with metastatic NET treated with TACE at a single institution from 2000 to 2013 were analyzed. Patient demographics, response to therapy, and long-term survival were compared with baseline pancreastatin level and changes in pancreastatin levels after TACE. RESULTS: A total of 188 patients underwent TACE during the study period. An initial pancreastatin level greater than 5000 pg/mL correlated with worse overall survival (OS) from time of first TACE (median OS, 58.5 vs. 22.1 months, p < 0.001). A decrease in pancreastatin level by 50% or more after TACE treatment correlated with improved OS (median OS 53.8 vs. 29.9 months, p = 0.032). Patients with carcinoid syndrome were more likely to have a subsequent increase in pancreastatin after initial drop post-TACE (78.1 vs. 55.2%, p = 0.002). Patients with an increase in pancreastatin levels after initial drop post-TACE were more likely to have liver progression on imaging (70.7 vs. 40.7%, p = 0.005) and more likely to need repeat TACE (21.1 vs. 6.7%, p = 0.009). CONCLUSIONS: For patients with liver metastases from NET treated with TACE, pancreastatin measurement may be a useful prognostic indicator. Extreme high levels before TACE can predict poor outcomes, whereas significant drops in pancreastatin after TACE correlate with improved survival. An increase in levels after initial decrease may predict progressive liver disease requiring repeat TACE. As such, pancreastatin levels should be measured throughout the TACE treatment period.

The Impact of Intraoperative Re-Resection of a Positive Bile Duct Margin on Clinical Outcomes for Hilar Cholangiocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: The impact of re-resection of a positive intraoperative bile duct margin on clinical outcomes for resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma (HCCA) remains controversial. We sought to define the impact of re-resection of an initially positive frozen-section bile duct margin on outcomes of patients undergoing surgery for HCCA. METHODS: Patients who underwent curative-intent resection for HCCA between 2000 and 2014 were identified at 10 hepatobiliary centers. Short- and long-term outcomes were analyzed among patients stratified by margin status. RESULTS: Among 215 (83.7%) patients who underwent frozen-section evaluation of the bile duct, 80 (37.2%) patients had a positive (R1) ductal margin, 58 (72.5%) underwent re-resection, and 29 ultimately had a secondary negative margin (secondary R0). There was no difference in morbidity, 30-day mortality, and length of stay among patients who had primary R0, secondary R0, and R1 resection (all p > 0.10). Median and 5-year survival were 22.3 months and 23.3%, respectively, among patients who had a primary R0 resection compared with 18.5 months and 7.9%, respectively, for patients with an R1 resection (p = 0.08). In contrast, among patients who had a secondary R0 margin with re-resection of the bile duct margin, median and 5-year survival were 30.6 months and 44.3%, respectively, which was comparable to patients with a primary R0 margin (p = 0.804). On multivariable analysis, R1 margin resection was associated with decreased survival (R1: hazard ratio [HR] 1.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0-1.7; p = 0.027), but secondary R0 resection was associated with comparable long-term outcomes as primary R0 resection (HR 0.9, 95% CI 0.4-2.3; p = 0.829). CONCLUSIONS: Additional resection of a positive frozen-section ductal margin to achieve R0 resection was associated with improved long-term outcomes following curative-intent resection of HCCA.

Neutrophil Lymphocyte Ratio and Transarterial Chemoembolization in Neuroendocrine Tumor Metastases.

BACKGROUND: The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been shown to be predictive of outcomes in various cancers, including neuroendocrine tumors (NETs), and cancer-related treatments, including transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). We hypothesized that NLR could be predictive of response to TACE in patients with metastatic NET. METHODS: We reviewed 262 patients who underwent TACE for metastatic NET at a single tertiary medical center from 2000 to 2016. NLR was calculated from blood work drawn 1 d before TACE, as well as 1 d, 1 wk, and 6 mo after treatment. RESULTS: The median post-TACE overall survival (OS) of the entire cohort was 30.1 mo. Median OS of patients with a pre-TACE NLR ≤ 4 was 33.3 mo versus 21.1 mo for patients with a pre-TACE NLR >4 (P = 0.005). At 6 mo, the median OS for patients with post-TACE NLR > pre-TACE NLR was 21.4 mo versus 25.8 mo for patients with post-TACE NLR ≤ pre-TACE NLR (P = 0.007). On multivariate analysis, both pre-TACE NLR and 6-mo post-TACE NLR were independent predictors of survival. NLR values from 1-d and 1-wk post-TACE did not correlate with outcome. CONCLUSIONS: An elevated NLR pre-TACE and an NLR that has not returned to its pre-TACE value several months after TACE correlate with outcomes in patients with NET and liver metastases. This value can easily be calculated from laboratory results routinely obtained as part of preprocedural and postprocedural care, potential treatment strategies.

Implementation and early outcomes for a surgeon-directed hepatic arterial infusion pump program for colorectal liver metastases.

INTRODUCTION: Hepatic arterial infusion pump (HAIP) therapy for colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) is beneficial in selected patients yet wide acceptance in the oncology community is lacking. METHODS: A surgeon-led team implemented a HAIP program in 2012. Pumps were placed by laparotomy for CRLM and fluorodeoxyuridine was infused via HAIP every 28 days without systemic chemotherapy supervised by the operating surgeon. RESULTS: Sixty patients were treated with HAIP, either in the adjuvant setting after liver resection or ablation of CRLM in 26 (43%) patients or with the unresectable disease in 34 (57%). Perioperative complications occurred in 19 (32%) and pump-specific complications in 14 (23%) that included intrahepatic biliary stricture in one (2%). Time to liver progression was a median 9.2 months (95% CI, 3.1-15.3 months) in unresectable patients and liver recurrence was a median 24.7 months (2.5-46.9 months) in the adjuvant group. Estimated 3-year overall survival from the time of HAIP placement was 64% in the adjuvant group and 37% in the unresectable group. Sarcopenia was prevalent (48%) and was associated with a worse survival (HR 2.4, 95% CI, 1.1-5.0). CONCLUSION: A surgeon-led HAIP program may achieve outcomes on par with those of experienced centers and foster strong relationships between surgical and medical oncologists.

Perioperative cytokine levels portend early death after pancreatectomy for ductal adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND: Soluble signaling molecules may play an important role in malignant pathogenesis. We hypothesize that perioperative cytokine levels are associated with outcomes in patients with pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC) undergoing surgical resection. METHODS: One hundered and eighteen patients with benign or malignant pancreatic disease were enrolled in a prospective study through a protocol for banking biologic samples. Peripheral blood was drawn at time of operation, and a multiplex cytokine assay was performed. Statistical analysis was via χ2 and Kaplan Meier methods. RESULTS: Of 118 patients enrolled, 85 (72%) had a diagnosis of PDAC, and 60 (70%) ultimately underwent partial pancreatectomy. Cytokine levels were not associated with postoperative complications in this initial cohort. A plasma level of monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) pg/mL ≤118 was associated with better overall survival (OS) (median survival 21 months vs 12.8 months, P = 0.023), as was non-detectable interleukin-8 (IL-8) (19 months) versus detectable IL-8 (12.8 months, P = 0.05). Patients with both MCP-1 >118 pg/mL and detectable IL-8 had a median survival of 10.6 months (P = 0.028). CONCLUSIONS: MCP-1 and IL-8 cytokine levels are associated with decreased survival following pancreatectomy for PDAC, and may be useful biomarkers. Measurement of these cytokine levels at different time points in future investigations will be important to validate these findings.

Development and prospective validation of a model estimating risk of readmission in cancer patients.

INTRODUCTION: Hospital readmissions among cancer patients are common. While several models estimating readmission risk exist, models specific for cancer patients are lacking. METHODS: A logistic regression model estimating risk of unplanned 30-day readmission was developed using inpatient admission data from a 2-year period (n = 18 782) at a tertiary cancer hospital. Readmission risk estimates derived from the model were then calculated prospectively over a 10-month period (n = 8616 admissions) and compared with actual incidence of readmission. RESULTS: There were 2478 (13.2%) unplanned readmissions. Model factors associated with readmission included: emergency department visit within 30 days, >1 admission within 60 days, non-surgical admission, solid malignancy, gastrointestinal cancer, emergency admission, length of stay >5 days, abnormal sodium, hemoglobin, or white blood cell count. The c-statistic for the model was 0.70. During the 10-month prospective evaluation, estimates of readmission from the model were associated with higher actual readmission incidence from 20.7% for the highest risk category to 9.6% for the lowest. CONCLUSIONS: An unplanned readmission risk model developed specifically for cancer patients performs well when validated prospectively. The specificity of the model for cancer patients, EMR incorporation, and prospective validation justify use of the model in future studies designed to reduce and prevent readmissions.

Oncologic effects of preoperative biliary drainage in resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma: Percutaneous biliary drainage has no adverse effects on survival.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The objective of the current study was to define long-term survival of patients with resectable hilar cholangiocarcinoma (HCCA) after preoperative percutaneous transhepatic biliary drainage (PTBD) versus endoscopic biliary drainage (EBD). METHODS: Between 2000 and 2014, 240 patients who underwent curative-intent resection for HCCA were identified at 10 major hepatobiliary centers. Postoperative morbidity and mortality, as well as disease-specific survival (DSS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) were analyzed among patients. RESULTS: The median decrease in total bilirubin levels after biliary drainage was similar comparing PTBD (n = 104) versus EBD (n = 92) (mg/dL, 4.9 vs 4.9, P = 0.589) before surgery. There was no difference in baseline demographic characteristics, type of surgical procedure performed, final AJCC tumor stage or postoperative morbidity among patients who underwent EBD only versus PTBD (all P > 0.05). Patients who underwent PTBD versus EBD had a comparable long-term DSS (median, 43.7 vs 36.9 months, P = 0.802) and RFS (median, 26.7 vs 24.0 months, P = 0.571). The overall pattern of recurrence relative to regional or distant disease was also the same among patients undergoing PTBD and EBD (P = 0.669) CONCLUSIONS: Oncologic outcomes including DSS and RFS were similar among patients who underwent PTBD versus EBD with no difference in tumor recurrence location.

Nomogram predicting the risk of recurrence after curative-intent resection of primary non-metastatic gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumors: An analysis of the U.S. Neuroendocrine Tumor Study Group.

BACKGROUND: The risk of recurrence after resection of non-metastatic gastro-entero-pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (GEP-NET) is poorly defined. We developed/validated a nomogram to predict risk of recurrence after curative-intent resection. METHODS: A training set to develop the nomogram and test set for validation were identified. The predictive ability of the nomogram was assessed using c-indices. RESULTS: Among 1477 patients, 673 (46%) were included in the training set and 804 (54%) in y the test set. On multivariable analysis, Ki-67, tumor size, nodal status, and invasion of adjacent organs were independent predictors of DFS. The risk of death increased by 8% for each percentage increase in the Ki-67 index (HR 1.08, 95% CI, 1.05-1.10; P < 0.001). GEP-NET invading adjacent organs had a HR of 1.65 (95% CI, 1.03-2.65; P = 0.038), similar to tumors ≥3 cm (HR 1.67, 95% CI, 1.11-2.51; P = 0.014). Patients with 1-3 positive nodes and patients with >3 positive nodes had a HR of 1.81 (95% CI, 1.12-2.87; P = 0.014) and 2.51 (95% CI, 1.50-4.24; P < 0.001), respectively. The nomogram demonstrated good ability to predict risk of recurrence (c-index: training set, 0.739; test set, 0.718). CONCLUSION: The nomogram was able to predict the risk of recurrence and can be easily applied in the clinical setting.

Adjuvant therapy is associated with improved survival after curative resection for hilar cholangiocarcinoma: A multi-institution analysis from the U.S. extrahepatic biliary malignancy consortium.

BACKGROUND: Curative-intent treatment for localized hilar cholangiocarcinoma (HC) requires surgical resection. However, the effect of adjuvant therapy (AT) on survival is unclear. We analyzed the impact of AT on overall (OS) and recurrence free survival (RFS) in patients undergoing curative resection. METHODS: We reviewed patients with resected HC between 2000 and 2015 from the ten institutions participating in the U.S. Extrahepatic Biliary Malignancy Consortium. We analyzed the impact of AT on RFS and OS. The probability of RFS and OS were calculated in the method of Kaplan and Meier and analyzed using multivariate Cox regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 249 patients underwent curative resection for HC. Patients who received AT and those who did not had similar demographic and preoperative features. In a multivariate Cox regression analysis, AT conferred a significant protective effect on OS (HR 0.58, P = 0.013), and this was maintained in a propensity matched analysis (HR 0.66, P = 0.033). The protective effect of AT remained significant when node negative patients were excluded (HR 0.28, P = 0.001), while it disappeared (HR 0.76, P = 0.260) when node positive patients were excluded. CONCLUSIONS: AT should be strongly considered after curative-intent resection for HC, particularly in patients with node positive disease.

Which Patients Require Extended Thromboprophylaxis After Colectomy? Modeling Risk and Assessing Indications for Post-discharge Pharmacoprophylaxis.

BACKGROUND: Given the conflicting nature of reported risk factors for post-discharge venous thromboembolism (VTE) and unclear guidelines for post-discharge pharmacoprophylaxis, we sought to determine risk factors for 30-day post-discharge VTE after colectomy to predict which patients will benefit from post-discharge pharmacoprophylaxis. METHODS: Patients who underwent colectomy in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Project Participant Use Files from 2011 to 2015 were identified. Logistic regression modeling was used. Receiver-operating characteristic curves were used and the best cut-points were determined using Youden's J index (sensitivity + specificity - 1). Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was used to test model calibration. A random sample of 30% of the cohort was used as a validation set. RESULTS: Among 77,823 cases, the overall incidence of VTE after colectomy was 1.9%, with 0.7% of VTE events occurring in the post-discharge setting. Factors associated with post-discharge VTE risk including body mass index, preoperative albumin, operation time, hospital length of stay, race, smoking status, inflammatory bowel disease, return to the operating room and postoperative ileus were included in logistic regression equation model. The model demonstrated good calibration (goodness of fit P = 0.7137) and good discrimination (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.68; validation set, AUC = 0.70). A score of ≥-5.00 had the maxim sensitivity and specificity, resulting in 36.63% of patients being treated with prophylaxis for an overall VTE risk of 0.67%. CONCLUSION: Approximately one-third of post-colectomy VTE events occurred after discharge. Patients with predicted post-discharge VTE risk of ≥-5.00 should be recommended for extended post-discharge VTE prophylaxis.

Defining Early Recurrence of Hilar Cholangiocarcinoma After Curative-intent Surgery: A Multi-institutional Study from the US Extrahepatic Biliary Malignancy Consortium.

BACKGROUND: Time to tumor recurrence may be associated with outcomes following resection of hepatobiliary cancers. The objective of the current study was to investigate risk factors and prognosis among patients with early versus late recurrence of hilar cholangiocarcinoma (HCCA) after curative-intent resection. METHODS: A total of 225 patients who underwent curative-intent resection for HCCA were identified from 10 academic centers in the USA. Data on clinicopathologic characteristics, pre-, intra-, and postoperative details and overall survival (OS) were analyzed. The slope of the curves identified by linear regression was used to categorize recurrences as early versus late. RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 18.0 months, 99 (44.0%) patients experienced a tumor recurrence. According to the slope of the curves identified by linear regression, the functions of the two straight lines were y = -0.465x + 16.99 and y = -0.12x + 7.16. The intercept value of the two lines was 28.5 months, and therefore, 30 months (2.5 years) was defined as the cutoff to differentiate early from late recurrence. Among 99 patients who experienced recurrence, the majority (n = 80, 80.8%) occurred within the first 2.5 years (early recurrence), while 19.2% of recurrences occurred beyond 2.5 years (late recurrence). Early recurrence was more likely present as distant disease (75.1% vs. 31.6%, p = 0.001) and was associated with a worse OS (Median OS, early 21.5 vs. late 50.4 months, p < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, poor tumor differentiation (HR 10.3, p = 0.021), microvascular invasion (HR 3.3, p = 0.037), perineural invasion (HR 3.9, p = 0.029), lymph node metastases (HR 5.0, p = 0.004), and microscopic positive margin (HR 3.5, p = 0.046) were independent risk factors associated with early recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: Early recurrence of HCCA after curative resection was common (~35.6%). Early recurrence was strongly associated with aggressive tumor characteristics, increased risk of distant metastatic recurrence and a worse long-term survival.

Identification of patients at high risk for post-discharge venous thromboembolism after hepato-pancreato-biliary surgery: which patients benefit from extended thromboprophylaxis?

BACKGROUND: The objective of the current study was to define risk factors associated with the 30-day post-operative risk of VTE after HPB surgery and create a model to identify patients at highest risk of post-discharge VTE. METHODS: Patients who underwent hepatectomy or pancreatectomy in the ACS-NSQIP Participant Use Files 2011-2015 were identified. Logistic regression modeling was used; a model to predict post-discharge VTE was developed. Model discrimination was tested using area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: Among 48,860 patients, the overall 30-day incidence of VTE after hepatectomy and pancreatectomy was 3.2% (n = 1580) with 1.1% (n = 543) of VTE events occurring after discharge. Patients who developed post-discharge VTE were more likely to be white, had a higher median BMI, have undergone pancreatic surgery, had longer median operative times, and to have had a transfusion. A weighted prediction model demonstrated good calibration and fair discrimination (AUC = 0.63). A score of ≥-4.50 had maximum sensitivity and specificity, resulting in 44% of patients being treating with prophylaxis for an overall VTE risk of 1.1%. CONCLUSIONS: Utilizing independent factors associated with post-discharge VTE, a prediction model was able to stratify patients according to risk of VTE and may help identify patients who are most likely to benefit from pharmacoprophylaxis.