Only adding stationary storage to vaccine supply chains may create and worsen transport bottlenecks.

Although vaccine supply chains in many countries require additional stationary storage and transport capacity to meet current and future needs, international donors tend to donate stationary storage devices far more often than transport equipment. To investigate the impact of only adding stationary storage equipment on the capacity requirements of transport devices and vehicles, we used HERMES (Highly Extensible Resource for Modeling Supply Chains) to construct a discrete event simulation model of the Niger vaccine supply chain. We measured the transport capacity requirement for each mode of transport used in the Niger vaccine cold chain, both before and after adding cold rooms and refrigerators to relieve all stationary storage constraints in the system. With the addition of necessary stationary storage, the average transport capacity requirement increased from 88% to 144% for cold trucks, from 101% to 197% for pickup trucks, and from 366% to 420% for vaccine carriers. Therefore, adding stationary storage alone may worsen or create new transport bottlenecks as more vaccines flow through the system, preventing many vaccines from reaching their target populations. Dynamic modeling can reveal such relationships between stationary storage capacity and transport constraints.

Factors Associated with Contraceptive Use in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Background: Globally 10% of women have an unmet need for contraception, with higher rates in sub-Saharan Africa. Programs to improve family planning (FP) outcomes require data on how service characteristics (e.g., geographic access, quality) and women's characteristics are associated with contraceptive use. Materials and Methods: We combined data from health facility assessments (2018 and 2019) and a population-based regional household survey (2018) of married and in-union women ages 15-49 in the Kigoma Region of Tanzania. We assessed the associations between contraceptive use and service (i.e., distance, methods available, personnel) and women's (e.g., demographic characteristics, fertility experiences and intentions, attitudes toward FP) characteristics. Results: In this largely rural sample (n = 4,372), 21.7% of women used modern reversible contraceptive methods. Most variables were associated with contraceptive use in bivariate analyses. In multivariate analyses, access to services located <2 km of one's home that offered five methods (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.57, confidence interval [CI] = 1.18-2.10) and had basic amenities (aOR = 1.66, CI = 1.24-2.2) increased the odds of contraceptive use. Among individual variables, believing that FP benefits the family (aOR = 3.65, CI = 2.18-6.11) and believing that contraception is safe (aOR = 2.48, CI = 1.92-3.20) and effective (aOR = 3.59, CI = 2.63-4.90) had strong associations with contraceptive use. Conclusions: Both service and individual characteristics were associated with contraceptive use, suggesting the importance of coordination between efforts to improve access to services and social and behavior change interventions that address motivations, knowledge, and attitudes toward FP.

Referral transit time between sending and first-line receiving health facilities: a geographical analysis in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Timely, high-quality obstetric services are vital to reduce maternal and perinatal mortality. We spatially modelled referral pathways between sending and receiving health facilities in Kigoma Region, Tanzania, identifying communication and transportation delays to timely care and inefficient links within the referral system. METHODS: We linked sending and receiving facilities to form facility pairs, based on information from a 2016 Health Facility Assessment. We used an AccessMod cost-friction surface model, incorporating road classifications and speed limits, to estimate direct travel time between facilities in each pair. We adjusted for transportation and communications delays to create a total travel time, simulating the effects of documented barriers in this referral system. RESULTS: More than half of the facility pairs (57.8%) did not refer patients to facilities with higher levels of emergency obstetric care. The median direct travel time was 25.9 min (range: 4.4-356.6), while the median total time was 106.7 min (22.9-371.6) at the moderate adjustment level. Total travel times for 30.7% of facility pairs exceeded 2 hours. All facility pairs required some adjustments for transportation and communication delays, with 94.0% of facility pairs' total times increasing. CONCLUSION: Half of all referral pairs in Kigoma Region have travel time delays nearly exceeding 1 hour, and facility pairs referring to facilities providing higher levels of care also have large travel time delays. Combining cost-friction surface modelling estimates with documented transportation and communications barriers provides a more realistic assessment of the effects of inter-facility delays on referral networks, and can inform decision-making and potential solutions in referral systems within resource-constrained settings.

Did Saving Mothers, Giving Life Expand Timely Access to Lifesaving Care in Uganda? A Spatial District-Level Analysis of Travel Time to Emergency Obstetric and Newborn Care.

INTRODUCTION: Interventions for the Saving Mothers, Giving Life (SMGL) initiative aimed to ensure all pregnant women in SMGL-supported districts have timely access to emergency obstetric and newborn care (EmONC). Spatial travel-time analyses provide a visualization of changes in timely access. METHODS: We compared travel-time estimates to EmONC health facilities in SMGL-supported districts in western Uganda in 2012, 2013, and 2016. To examine EmONC access, we analyzed a categorical variable of travel-time duration in 30-minute increments. Data sources included health facility assessments, geographic coordinates of EmONC facilities, geolocated population estimates of women of reproductive age (WRA), and other road network and geographic sources. RESULTS: The number of EmONC facilities almost tripled between 2012 and 2016, increasing geographic access to EmONC. Estimated travel time to EmONC facilities declined significantly during the 5-year period. The proportion of WRA able to access any EmONC and comprehensive EmONC (CEmONC) facility within 2 hours by motorcycle increased by 18% (from 61.3% to 72.1%, P < .01) and 37% (from 51.1% to 69.8%, P < .01), respectively from baseline to 2016. Similar increases occurred among WRA accessing EmONC and CEmONC respectively if 4-wheeled vehicles (14% and 31% increase, P < .01) could be used. Increases in timely access were also substantial for nonmotorized transportation such as walking and/or bicycling. CONCLUSIONS: Largely due to the SMGL-supported expansion of EmONC capability, timely access to EmONC significantly improved. Our analysis developed a geographic outline of facility accessibility using multiple types of transportation. Spatial travel-time analyses, along with other EmONC indicators, can be used by planners and policy makers to estimate need and target underserved populations to achieve further gains in EmONC accessibility. In addition to increasing the number and geographic distribution of EmONC facilities, complementary efforts to make motorized transportation available are necessary to achieve meaningful increases in EmONC access.

Impact of the Saving Mothers, Giving Life Approach on Decreasing Maternal and Perinatal Deaths in Uganda and Zambia.

BACKGROUND: Maternal and perinatal mortality is a global development priority that continues to present major challenges in sub-Saharan Africa. Saving Mothers, Giving Life (SMGL) was a multipartner initiative implemented from 2012 to 2017 with the goal of improving maternal and perinatal health in high-mortality settings. The initiative accomplished this by reducing delays to timely and appropriate obstetric care through the introduction and support of community and facility evidence-based and district-wide health systems strengthening interventions. METHODS: SMGL-designated pilot districts in Uganda and Zambia documented baseline and endline maternal and perinatal health outcomes using multiple approaches. These included health facility assessments, pregnancy outcome monitoring, enhanced maternal mortality detection in facilities, and district population-based identification and investigation of maternal deaths in communities. RESULTS: Over the course of the 5-year SMGL initiative, population-based estimates documented a 44% reduction in the SMGL-supported district-wide maternal mortality ratio (MMR) in Uganda (from 452 to 255 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births) and a 41% reduction in Zambia (from 480 to 284 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births). The MMR in SMGL-supported health facilities declined by 44% in Uganda and by 38% in Zambia. The institutional delivery rate increased by 47% in Uganda (from 45.5% to 66.8% of district births) and by 44% in Zambia (from 62.6% to 90.2% of district births). The number of facilities providing emergency obstetric and newborn care (EmONC) rose from 10 to 26 in Uganda and from 7 to 13 in Zambia, and lower- and mid-level facilities increased the number of EmONC signal functions performed. Cesarean delivery rates increased by more than 70% in both countries, reaching 9% and 5% of all births in Uganda and Zambia districts, respectively. Maternal deaths in facilities due to obstetric hemorrhage declined by 42% in Uganda and 65% in Zambia. Overall, perinatal mortality rates declined, largely due to reductions in stillbirths in both countries; however, no statistically significant changes were found in predischarge neonatal death rates in predischarge either country. CONCLUSIONS: MMRs fell significantly in Uganda and Zambia following the introduction of the SMGL interventions, and SMGL's comprehensive district systems-strengthening approach successfully improved coverage and quality of care for mothers and newborns. The lessons learned from the initiative can inform policy makers and program managers in other low- and middle-income settings where similar approaches could be used to rapidly reduce preventable maternal and newborn deaths.

Addressing the Second Delay in Saving Mothers, Giving Life Districts in Uganda and Zambia: Reaching Appropriate Maternal Care in a Timely Manner.

BACKGROUND: Between June 2011 and December 2016, the Saving Mothers, Giving Life (SMGL) initiative in Uganda and Zambia implemented a comprehensive approach targeting the persistent barriers that impact a woman's decision to seek care (first delay), ability to reach care (second delay), and ability to receive adequate care (third delay). This article addresses how SMGL partners implemented strategies specifically targeting the second delay, including decreasing the distance to facilities capable of managing emergency obstetric and newborn complications, ensuring sufficient numbers of skilled birth attendants, and addressing transportation challenges. METHODS: Both quantitative and qualitative data collected by SMGL implementing partners for the purpose of monitoring and evaluation were used to document the intervention strategies and to describe the change in outputs and outcomes related to the second delay. Quantitative data sources included pregnancy outcome monitoring data in facilities, health facility assessments, and population-based surveys. Qualitative data were derived from population-level verbal autopsy narratives, programmatic reports and SMGL-related publications, and partner-specific evaluations that include focus group discussions and in-depth interviews. RESULTS: The proportion of deliveries in any health facility or hospital increased from 46% to 67% in Uganda and from 63% to 90% in Zambia between baseline and endline. Distance to health facilities was reduced by increasing the number of health facilities capable of providing basic emergency obstetric and newborn care services in both Uganda and Zambia-a 200% and 167% increase, respectively. Access to facilities improved through integrated transportation and communication services efforts. In Uganda there was a 6% increase in the number of health facilities with communication equipment and a 258% increase in facility deliveries supported by transportation vouchers. In Zambia, there was a 31% increase in health facilities with available transportation, and the renovation and construction of maternity waiting homes resulted in a 69% increase in the number of health facilities with associated maternity waiting homes. CONCLUSION: The collective SMGL strategies addressing the second delay resulted in increased access to delivery services as seen by the increase in the proportion of facility deliveries in SMGL districts, improved communication and transportation services, and an increase in the number of facilities with associated maternity waiting homes. Sustaining and improving on these efforts will need to be ongoing to continue to address the second delay in Uganda and Zambia.

Addressing the Third Delay in Saving Mothers, Giving Life Districts in Uganda and Zambia: Ensuring Adequate and Appropriate Facility-Based Maternal and Perinatal Health Care.

BACKGROUND: Saving Mothers, Giving Life (SMGL) is a 5-year initiative implemented in participating districts in Uganda and Zambia that aimed to reduce deaths related to pregnancy and childbirth by targeting the 3 delays to receiving appropriate care: seeking, reaching, and receiving. Approaches to addressing the third delay included adequate health facility infrastructure, specifically sufficient equipment and medications; trained providers to provide quality evidence-based care; support for referrals to higher-level care; and effective maternal and perinatal death surveillance and response. METHODS: SMGL used a mixed-methods approach to describe intervention strategies, outcomes, and health impacts. Programmatic and monitoring and evaluation data-health facility assessments, facility and community surveillance, and population-based mortality studies-were used to document the effectiveness of intervention components. RESULTS: During the SMGL initiative, the proportion of facilities providing emergency obstetric and newborn care (EmONC) increased from 10% to 25% in Uganda and from 6% to 12% in Zambia. Correspondingly, the delivery rate occurring in EmONC facilities increased from 28.2% to 41.0% in Uganda and from 26.0% to 29.1% in Zambia. Nearly all facilities had at least one trained provider on staff by the endline evaluation. Staffing increases allowed a higher proportion of health centers to provide care 24 hours a day/7 days a week by endline-from 74.6% to 82.9% in Uganda and from 64.8% to 95.5% in Zambia. During this period, referral communication improved from 93.3% to 99.0% in Uganda and from 44.6% to 100% in Zambia, and data systems to identify and analyze causes of maternal and perinatal deaths were established and strengthened. CONCLUSION: SMGL's approach was associated with improvements in facility infrastructure, equipment, medication, access to skilled staff, and referral mechanisms and led to declines in facility maternal and perinatal mortality rates. Further work is needed to sustain these gains and to eliminate preventable maternal and perinatal deaths.

Geographic Access Modeling of Emergency Obstetric and Neonatal Care in Kigoma Region, Tanzania: Transportation Schemes and Programmatic Implications.

BACKGROUND: Access to transportation is vital to reducing the travel time to emergency obstetric and neonatal care (EmONC) for managing complications and preventing adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes. This study examines the distribution of travel times to EmONC in Kigoma Region, Tanzania, using various transportation schemes, to estimate the proportion of live births (a proxy indicator of women needing delivery care) with poor geographic access to EmONC services. METHODS: The 2014 Reproductive Health Survey of Kigoma Region identified 4 primary means of transportation used to travel to health facilities: walking, cycling, motorcycle, and 4-wheeled motor vehicle. A raster-based travel time model was used to map the 2-hour travel time catchment for each mode of transportation. Live birth density distributions were aggregated by travel time catchments, and by administrative council, to estimate the proportion of births with poor access. RESULTS: Of all live births in Kigoma Region, 13% occurred in areas where women can reach EmONC facilities within 2 hours on foot, 33% in areas that can be reached within 2 hours only by motorized vehicles, and 32% where it is impossible to reach EmONC facilities within 2 hours. Over 50% of births in 3 of the 8 administrative councils had poor estimated access. In half the councils, births with poor access could be reduced to no higher than 12% if all female residents had access to motorized vehicles. CONCLUSION: Significant differences in geographic access to EmONC in Kigoma Region, Tanzania, were observed both by location and by primary transportation type. As most of the population may only have good EmONC access when using mechanized or motorized vehicles, bicycles and motorcycles should be incorporated into the health transportation strategy. Collaboration between private transportation sectors and obstetric service providers could improve access to EmONC services among most populations. In areas where residents may not access EmONC facilities within 2 hours regardless of the type of transportation used, upgrading EmONC capacity among nearby non-EmONC facilities may be required to improve accessibility.

Understanding Local Spatial Variation Along the Care Continuum: The Potential Impact of Transportation Vulnerability on HIV Linkage to Care and Viral Suppression in High-Poverty Areas, Atlanta, Georgia.

BACKGROUND: Engagement in care is central to reducing mortality for HIV-infected persons and achieving the White House National AIDS Strategy of 80% viral suppression in the US by 2020. Where an HIV-infected person lives impacts his or her ability to achieve viral suppression. Reliable transportation access for healthcare may be a key determinant of this place-suppression relationship. METHODS: ZIP code tabulation areas (ZCTAs) were the units of analysis. We used geospatial and ecologic analyses to examine spatial distributions of neighborhood-level variables (eg, transportation accessibility) and associations with: (1) community linkage to care, and (2) community viral suppression. Among Atlanta ZCTAs with data for newly diagnosed HIV cases (2006-2010), we used Moran I to evaluate spatial clustering and linear regression models to evaluate associations between neighborhood variables and outcomes. RESULTS: In 100 ZCTAs with 8413 newly diagnosed HIV-positive residents, a median of 60 HIV cases were diagnosed per ZCTA during the 5-year period. We found significant clustering of ZCTAs with low linkage to care and viral suppression (Moran I = 0.218, P < 0.05). In high-poverty ZCTAs, a 10% point increase in ZCTA-level household vehicle ownership was associated with a 4% point increase in linkage to care (P = 0.02, R = 0.16). In low-poverty ZCTAs, a 10% point increase in ZCTA-level household vehicle ownership was associated with a 30% point increase in ZCTA-level viral suppression (P = 0.01, R = 0.08). CONCLUSIONS: Correlations between transportation variables and community-level care linkage and viral suppression vary by area poverty level and provide opportunities for interventions beyond individual-level factors.

The impact of implementing a demand forecasting system into a low-income country's supply chain.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the potential impact and value of applications (e.g. adjusting ordering levels, storage capacity, transportation capacity, distribution frequency) of data from demand forecasting systems implemented in a lower-income country's vaccine supply chain with different levels of population change to urban areas. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using our software, HERMES, we generated a detailed discrete event simulation model of Niger's entire vaccine supply chain, including every refrigerator, freezer, transport, personnel, vaccine, cost, and location. We represented the introduction of a demand forecasting system to adjust vaccine ordering that could be implemented with increasing delivery frequencies and/or additions of cold chain equipment (storage and/or transportation) across the supply chain during varying degrees of population movement. RESULTS: Implementing demand forecasting system with increased storage and transport frequency increased the number of successfully administered vaccine doses and lowered the logistics cost per dose up to 34%. Implementing demand forecasting system without storage/transport increases actually decreased vaccine availability in certain circumstances. DISCUSSION: The potential maximum gains of a demand forecasting system may only be realized if the system is implemented to both augment the supply chain cold storage and transportation. Implementation may have some impact but, in certain circumstances, may hurt delivery. Therefore, implementation of demand forecasting systems with additional storage and transport may be the better approach. Significant decreases in the logistics cost per dose with more administered vaccines support investment in these forecasting systems. CONCLUSION: Demand forecasting systems have the potential to greatly improve vaccine demand fulfilment, and decrease logistics cost/dose when implemented with storage and transportation increases. Simulation modeling can demonstrate the potential health and economic benefits of supply chain improvements.

Landscaping the structures of GAVI country vaccine supply chains and testing the effects of radical redesign.

BACKGROUND: Many of the world's vaccine supply chains do not adequately provide vaccines, prompting several questions: how are vaccine supply chains currently structured, are these structures closely tailored to individual countries, and should these supply chains be radically redesigned? METHODS: We segmented the 57 GAVI-eligible countries' vaccine supply chains based on their structure/morphology, analyzed whether these segments correlated with differences in country characteristics, and then utilized HERMES to develop a detailed simulation model of three sample countries' supply chains and explore the cost and impact of various alternative structures. RESULTS: The majority of supply chains (34 of 57) consist of four levels, despite serving a wide diversity of geographical areas and population sizes. These four-level supply chains loosely fall into three clusters [(1) 18 countries relatively more bottom-heavy, i.e., many more storage locations lower in the supply chain, (2) seven with relatively more storage locations in both top and lower levels, and (3) nine comparatively more top-heavy] which do not correlate closely with any of the country characteristics considered. For all three cluster types, our HERMES modeling found that simplified systems (a central location shipping directly to immunization locations with a limited number of Hubs in between) resulted in lower operating costs. CONCLUSION: A standard four-tier design template may have been followed for most countries and raises the possibility that simpler and more tailored designs may be warranted.

A passive cold storage device economic model to evaluate selected immunization location scenarios.

BACKGROUND: The challenge of keeping vaccines cold at health posts given the unreliability of power sources in many low- and middle-income countries and the expense and maintenance requirements of solar refrigerators has motivated the development of passive cold storage devices (PCDs), containers that keep vaccines cold without using an active energy source. With different PCDs under development, manufacturers, policymakers and funders need guidance on how varying different PCD characteristics may affect the devices' cost and utility. METHODS: We developed an economic spreadsheet model representing the lowest two levels of a typical Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) vaccine supply chain: a district store, the immunization locations that the district store serves, and the transport vehicles that operate between the district store and the immunization locations. The model compares the use of three vaccine storage device options [(1) portable PCDs, (2) stationary PCDs, or (3) solar refrigerators] and allows the user to vary different device (e.g., size and cost) and scenario characteristics (e.g., catchment area population size and vaccine schedule). RESULTS: For a sample set of select scenarios and equipment specification, we found the portable PCD to generally be better suited to populations of 5,000 or less. The stationary PCD replenished once per month can be a robust design especially with a 35L capacity and a cost of $2,500 or less. The solar device was generally a reasonable alternative for most of the scenarios explored if the cost was $2,100 or less (including installation). No one device type dominated over all explored circumstances. Therefore, the best device may vary from country-to-country and location-to-location within a country. CONCLUSIONS: This study introduces a quantitative model to help guide PCD development. Although our selected set of explored scenarios and device designs was not exhaustive, future explorations can further alter model input values to represent additional scenarios and device designs.

Augmenting transport versus increasing cold storage to improve vaccine supply chains.

BACKGROUND: When addressing the urgent task of improving vaccine supply chains, especially to accommodate the introduction of new vaccines, there is often a heavy emphasis on stationary storage. Currently, donations to vaccine supply chains occur largely in the form of storage equipment. METHODS: This study utilized a HERMES-generated detailed, dynamic, discrete event simulation model of the Niger vaccine supply chain to compare the impacts on vaccine availability of adding stationary cold storage versus transport capacity at different levels and to determine whether adding stationary storage capacity alone would be enough to relieve potential bottlenecks when pneumococcal and rotavirus vaccines are introduced by 2015. RESULTS: Relieving regional level storage bottlenecks increased vaccine availability (by 4%) more than relieving storage bottlenecks at the district (1% increase), central (no change), and clinic (no change) levels alone. Increasing transport frequency (or capacity) yielded far greater gains (e.g., 15% increase in vaccine availability when doubling transport frequency to the district level and 18% when tripling). In fact, relieving all stationary storage constraints could only increase vaccine availability by 11%, whereas doubling the transport frequency throughout the system led to a 26% increase and tripling the frequency led to a 30% increase. Increasing transport frequency also reduced the amount of stationary storage space needed in the supply chain. The supply chain required an additional 61,269L of storage to relieve constraints with the current transport frequency, 55,255L with transport frequency doubled, and 51,791L with transport frequency tripled. CONCLUSIONS: When evaluating vaccine supply chains, it is important to understand the interplay between stationary storage and transport. The HERMES-generated dynamic simulation model showed how augmenting transport can result in greater gains than only augmenting stationary storage and can reduce stationary storage needs.