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1.
Lancet ; 395(10219): 200-211, 2020 01 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31954465

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Sepsis is life-threatening organ dysfunction due to a dysregulated host response to infection. It is considered a major cause of health loss, but data for the global burden of sepsis are limited. As a syndrome caused by underlying infection, sepsis is not part of standard Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) estimates. Accurate estimates are important to inform and monitor health policy interventions, allocation of resources, and clinical treatment initiatives. We estimated the global, regional, and national incidence of sepsis and mortality from this disorder using data from GBD 2017. METHODS: We used multiple cause-of-death data from 109 million individual death records to calculate mortality related to sepsis among each of the 282 underlying causes of death in GBD 2017. The percentage of sepsis-related deaths by underlying GBD cause in each location worldwide was modelled using mixed-effects linear regression. Sepsis-related mortality for each age group, sex, location, GBD cause, and year (1990-2017) was estimated by applying modelled cause-specific fractions to GBD 2017 cause-of-death estimates. We used data for 8·7 million individual hospital records to calculate in-hospital sepsis-associated case-fatality, stratified by underlying GBD cause. In-hospital sepsis-associated case-fatality was modelled for each location using linear regression, and sepsis incidence was estimated by applying modelled case-fatality to sepsis-related mortality estimates. FINDINGS: In 2017, an estimated 48·9 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·9-62·9) incident cases of sepsis were recorded worldwide and 11·0 million (10·1-12·0) sepsis-related deaths were reported, representing 19·7% (18·2-21·4) of all global deaths. Age-standardised sepsis incidence fell by 37·0% (95% UI 11·8-54·5) and mortality decreased by 52·8% (47·7-57·5) from 1990 to 2017. Sepsis incidence and mortality varied substantially across regions, with the highest burden in sub-Saharan Africa, Oceania, south Asia, east Asia, and southeast Asia. INTERPRETATION: Despite declining age-standardised incidence and mortality, sepsis remains a major cause of health loss worldwide and has an especially high health-related burden in sub-Saharan Africa. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institutes of Health, the University of Pittsburgh, the British Columbia Children's Hospital Foundation, the Wellcome Trust, and the Fleming Fund.


Assuntos
Carga Global da Doença/estatística & dados numéricos , Sepse/epidemiologia , Sepse/mortalidade , Adolescente , Adulto , Distribuição por Idade , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Causas de Morte , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Distribuição por Sexo , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Adulto Jovem
2.
Lancet ; 394(10195): 332-343, 2019 07 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31229233

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium vivax exacts a significant toll on health worldwide, yet few efforts to date have quantified the extent and temporal trends of its global distribution. Given the challenges associated with the proper diagnosis and treatment of P vivax, national malaria programmes-particularly those pursuing malaria elimination strategies-require up to date assessments of P vivax endemicity and disease impact. This study presents the first global maps of P vivax clinical burden from 2000 to 2017. METHODS: In this spatial and temporal modelling study, we adjusted routine malariometric surveillance data for known biases and used socioeconomic indicators to generate time series of the clinical burden of P vivax. These data informed Bayesian geospatial models, which produced fine-scale predictions of P vivax clinical incidence and infection prevalence over time. Within sub-Saharan Africa, where routine surveillance for P vivax is not standard practice, we combined predicted surfaces of Plasmodium falciparum with country-specific ratios of P vivax to P falciparum. These results were combined with surveillance-based outputs outside of Africa to generate global maps. FINDINGS: We present the first high-resolution maps of P vivax burden. These results are combined with those for P falciparum (published separately) to form the malaria estimates for the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study. The burden of P vivax malaria decreased by 41·6%, from 24·5 million cases (95% uncertainty interval 22·5-27·0) in 2000 to 14·3 million cases (13·7-15·0) in 2017. The Americas had a reduction of 56·8% (47·6-67·0) in total cases since 2000, while South-East Asia recorded declines of 50·5% (50·3-50·6) and the Western Pacific regions recorded declines of 51·3% (48·0-55·4). Europe achieved zero P vivax cases during the study period. Nonetheless, rates of decline have stalled in the past five years for many countries, with particular increases noted in regions affected by political and economic instability. INTERPRETATION: Our study highlights important spatial and temporal patterns in the clinical burden and prevalence of P vivax. Amid substantial progress worldwide, plateauing gains and areas of increased burden signal the potential for challenges that are greater than expected on the road to malaria elimination. These results support global monitoring systems and can inform the optimisation of diagnosis and treatment where P vivax has most impact. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Wellcome Trust.


Assuntos
Doenças Endêmicas/estatística & dados numéricos , Malária Vivax/epidemiologia , África/epidemiologia , América/epidemiologia , Sudeste Asiático/epidemiologia , Teorema de Bayes , Saúde Global , Humanos , Oceania/epidemiologia , Vigilância da População , Análise Espaço-Temporal
3.
Lancet ; 394(10195): 322-331, 2019 07 27.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-31229234

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Since 2000, the scale-up of malaria control interventions has substantially reduced morbidity and mortality caused by the disease globally, fuelling bold aims for disease elimination. In tandem with increased availability of geospatially resolved data, malaria control programmes increasingly use high-resolution maps to characterise spatially heterogeneous patterns of disease risk and thus efficiently target areas of high burden. METHODS: We updated and refined the Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate and clinical incidence models for sub-Saharan Africa, which rely on cross-sectional survey data for parasite rate and intervention coverage. For malaria endemic countries outside of sub-Saharan Africa, we produced estimates of parasite rate and incidence by applying an ecological downscaling approach to malaria incidence data acquired via routine surveillance. Mortality estimates were derived by linking incidence to systematically derived vital registration and verbal autopsy data. Informed by high-resolution covariate surfaces, we estimated P falciparum parasite rate, clinical incidence, and mortality at national, subnational, and 5 × 5 km pixel scales with corresponding uncertainty metrics. FINDINGS: We present the first global, high-resolution map of P falciparum malaria mortality and the first global prevalence and incidence maps since 2010. These results are combined with those for Plasmodium vivax (published separately) to form the malaria estimates for the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study. The P falciparum estimates span the period 2000-17, and illustrate the rapid decline in burden between 2005 and 2017, with incidence declining by 27·9% and mortality declining by 42·5%. Despite a growing population in endemic regions, P falciparum cases declined between 2005 and 2017, from 232·3 million (95% uncertainty interval 198·8-277·7) to 193·9 million (156·6-240·2) and deaths declined from 925 800 (596 900-1 341 100) to 618 700 (368 600-952 200). Despite the declines in burden, 90·1% of people within sub-Saharan Africa continue to reside in endemic areas, and this region accounted for 79·4% of cases and 87·6% of deaths in 2017. INTERPRETATION: High-resolution maps of P falciparum provide a contemporary resource for informing global policy and malaria control planning, programme implementation, and monitoring initiatives. Amid progress in reducing global malaria burden, areas where incidence trends have plateaued or increased in the past 5 years underscore the fragility of hard-won gains against malaria. Efforts towards elimination should be strengthened in such areas, and those where burden remained high throughout the study period. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.


Assuntos
Malária Falciparum/epidemiologia , Mortalidade/tendências , África Subsaariana/epidemiologia , Estudos Transversais , Saúde Global , Humanos , Incidência , Malária Falciparum/mortalidade , Objetivos Organizacionais , Prevalência , Análise Espaço-Temporal
4.
N Engl J Med ; 375(25): 2435-2445, 2016 12 22.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27723434

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Malaria control has not been routinely informed by the assessment of subnational variation in malaria deaths. We combined data from the Malaria Atlas Project and the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate malaria mortality across sub-Saharan Africa on a grid of 5 km2 from 1990 through 2015. METHODS: We estimated malaria mortality using a spatiotemporal modeling framework of geolocated data (i.e., with known latitude and longitude) on the clinical incidence of malaria, coverage of antimalarial drug treatment, case fatality rate, and population distribution according to age. RESULTS: Across sub-Saharan Africa during the past 15 years, we estimated that there was an overall decrease of 57% (95% uncertainty interval, 46 to 65) in the rate of malaria deaths, from 12.5 (95% uncertainty interval, 8.3 to 17.0) per 10,000 population in 2000 to 5.4 (95% uncertainty interval, 3.4 to 7.9) in 2015. This led to an overall decrease of 37% (95% uncertainty interval, 36 to 39) in the number of malaria deaths annually, from 1,007,000 (95% uncertainty interval, 666,000 to 1,376,000) to 631,000 (95% uncertainty interval, 394,000 to 914,000). The share of malaria deaths among children younger than 5 years of age ranged from more than 80% at a rate of death of more than 25 per 10,000 to less than 40% at rates below 1 per 10,000. Areas with high malaria mortality (>10 per 10,000) and low coverage (<50%) of insecticide-treated bed nets and antimalarial drugs included much of Nigeria, Angola, and Cameroon and parts of the Central African Republic, Congo, Guinea, and Equatorial Guinea. CONCLUSIONS: We estimated that there was an overall decrease of 57% in the rate of death from malaria across sub-Saharan Africa over the past 15 years and identified several countries in which high rates of death were associated with low coverage of antimalarial treatment and prevention programs. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and others.).


Assuntos
Malária Falciparum/mortalidade , Plasmodium falciparum/isolamento & purificação , Adolescente , Adulto , África Subsaariana/epidemiologia , Antimaláricos/uso terapêutico , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis/tendências , Mapeamento Geográfico , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Mosquiteiros Tratados com Inseticida , Malária Falciparum/tratamento farmacológico , Malária Falciparum/prevenção & controle , Modelos Estatísticos , Mortalidade/tendências , Carga Parasitária , Prevalência , Adulto Jovem
5.
BMC Health Serv Res ; 18(1): 39, 2018 01 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29370842

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Service readiness of health facilities is an integral part of providing comprehensive quality healthcare to the community. Comprehensive assessment of general and service-specific (i.e. child immunization) readiness will help to identify the bottlenecks in healthcare service delivery and gaps in equitable service provision. Assessing healthcare facilities readiness also helps in optimal policymaking and resource allocation. METHODS: A health facility survey was conducted between March 2015 and December 2015 in two purposively selected divisions in Bangladesh; i.e. Rajshahi division (high performing) and Sylhet division (low performing). A total of 123 health facilities were randomly selected from different levels of service, both public and private, with variation in sizes and patient loads from the list of facilities. Data on various aspects of healthcare facility were collected by interviewing key personnel. General service and child immunization specific service readiness were assessed using the Service Availability and Readiness Assessment (SARA) manual developed by World Health Organization (WHO). The analyses were stratified by division and level of healthcare facilities. RESULTS: The general service readiness index for pharmacies, community clinics, primary care facilities and higher care facilities were 40.6%, 60.5%, 59.8% and 69.5%, respectively in Rajshahi division and 44.3%, 57.8%, 57.5% and 73.4%, respectively in Sylhet division. Facilities at all levels had the highest scores for basic equipment (ranged between 51.7% and 93.7%) and the lowest scores for diagnostic capacity (ranged between 0.0% and 53.7%). Though facilities with vaccine storage capacity had very high levels of service readiness for child immunization, facilities without vaccine storage capacity lacked availability of many tracer items. Regarding readiness for newly introduced pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) and inactivated polio vaccine (IPV), most of the surveyed facilities reported lack of sufficient funding and resources (antigen) for training programs. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggested that health facilities suffered from lack of readiness in various aspects, most notably in diagnostic capacity. Conversely, with very few challenges, nearly all the health facilities designated to provide immunization services were ready to deliver routine childhood immunization services as well as newly introduced PCV and IPV.


Assuntos
Atenção à Saúde/organização & administração , Instalações de Saúde , Programas de Imunização/organização & administração , Qualidade da Assistência à Saúde/organização & administração , Vacinação/normas , Bangladesh , Criança , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Pesquisas sobre Atenção à Saúde , Instalações de Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Masculino , Vacinas Pneumocócicas , Avaliação de Programas e Projetos de Saúde
6.
JAMA ; 320(8): 792-814, 2018 08 28.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30167700

RESUMO

Importance: Understanding global variation in firearm mortality rates could guide prevention policies and interventions. Objective: To estimate mortality due to firearm injury deaths from 1990 to 2016 in 195 countries and territories. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study used deidentified aggregated data including 13 812 location-years of vital registration data to generate estimates of levels and rates of death by age-sex-year-location. The proportion of suicides in which a firearm was the lethal means was combined with an estimate of per capita gun ownership in a revised proxy measure used to evaluate the relationship between availability or access to firearms and firearm injury deaths. Exposures: Firearm ownership and access. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cause-specific deaths by age, sex, location, and year. Results: Worldwide, it was estimated that 251 000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 195 000-276 000) people died from firearm injuries in 2016, with 6 countries (Brazil, United States, Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, and Guatemala) accounting for 50.5% (95% UI, 42.2%-54.8%) of those deaths. In 1990, there were an estimated 209 000 (95% UI, 172 000 to 235 000) deaths from firearm injuries. Globally, the majority of firearm injury deaths in 2016 were homicides (64.0% [95% UI, 54.2%-68.0%]; absolute value, 161 000 deaths [95% UI, 107 000-182 000]); additionally, 27% were firearm suicide deaths (67 500 [95% UI, 55 400-84 100]) and 9% were unintentional firearm deaths (23 000 [95% UI, 18 200-24 800]). From 1990 to 2016, there was no significant decrease in the estimated global age-standardized firearm homicide rate (-0.2% [95% UI, -0.8% to 0.2%]). Firearm suicide rates decreased globally at an annualized rate of 1.6% (95% UI, 1.1-2.0), but in 124 of 195 countries and territories included in this study, these levels were either constant or significant increases were estimated. There was an annualized decrease of 0.9% (95% UI, 0.5%-1.3%) in the global rate of age-standardized firearm deaths from 1990 to 2016. Aggregate firearm injury deaths in 2016 were highest among persons aged 20 to 24 years (for men, an estimated 34 700 deaths [95% UI, 24 900-39 700] and for women, an estimated 3580 deaths [95% UI, 2810-4210]). Estimates of the number of firearms by country were associated with higher rates of firearm suicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.21) and homicide (P < .001; R2 = 0.35). Conclusions and Relevance: This study estimated between 195 000 and 276 000 firearm injury deaths globally in 2016, the majority of which were firearm homicides. Despite an overall decrease in rates of firearm injury death since 1990, there was variation among countries and across demographic subgroups.


Assuntos
Armas de Fogo/estatística & dados numéricos , Homicídio/estatística & dados numéricos , Suicídio/estatística & dados numéricos , Ferimentos por Arma de Fogo/mortalidade , Adolescente , Adulto , Distribuição por Idade , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mortalidade/tendências , Distribuição por Sexo , Adulto Jovem
7.
JAMA ; 316(22): 2385-2401, 2016 12 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27959996

RESUMO

Importance: County-level patterns in mortality rates by cause have not been systematically described but are potentially useful for public health officials, clinicians, and researchers seeking to improve health and reduce geographic disparities. Objectives: To demonstrate the use of a novel method for county-level estimation and to estimate annual mortality rates by US county for 21 mutually exclusive causes of death from 1980 through 2014. Design, Setting, and Participants: Redistribution methods for garbage codes (implausible or insufficiently specific cause of death codes) and small area estimation methods (statistical methods for estimating rates in small subpopulations) were applied to death registration data from the National Vital Statistics System to estimate annual county-level mortality rates for 21 causes of death. These estimates were raked (scaled along multiple dimensions) to ensure consistency between causes and with existing national-level estimates. Geographic patterns in the age-standardized mortality rates in 2014 and in the change in the age-standardized mortality rates between 1980 and 2014 for the 10 highest-burden causes were determined. Exposure: County of residence. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cause-specific age-standardized mortality rates. Results: A total of 80 412 524 deaths were recorded from January 1, 1980, through December 31, 2014, in the United States. Of these, 19.4 million deaths were assigned garbage codes. Mortality rates were analyzed for 3110 counties or groups of counties. Large between-county disparities were evident for every cause, with the gap in age-standardized mortality rates between counties in the 90th and 10th percentiles varying from 14.0 deaths per 100 000 population (cirrhosis and chronic liver diseases) to 147.0 deaths per 100 000 population (cardiovascular diseases). Geographic regions with elevated mortality rates differed among causes: for example, cardiovascular disease mortality tended to be highest along the southern half of the Mississippi River, while mortality rates from self-harm and interpersonal violence were elevated in southwestern counties, and mortality rates from chronic respiratory disease were highest in counties in eastern Kentucky and western West Virginia. Counties also varied widely in terms of the change in cause-specific mortality rates between 1980 and 2014. For most causes (eg, neoplasms, neurological disorders, and self-harm and interpersonal violence), both increases and decreases in county-level mortality rates were observed. Conclusions and Relevance: In this analysis of US cause-specific county-level mortality rates from 1980 through 2014, there were large between-county differences for every cause of death, although geographic patterns varied substantially by cause of death. The approach to county-level analyses with small area models used in this study has the potential to provide novel insights into US disease-specific mortality time trends and their differences across geographic regions.


Assuntos
Mortalidade/tendências , Causas de Morte , Humanos , Estados Unidos
8.
Lancet ; 384(9947): 980-1004, 2014 Sep 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24797575

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100,000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery. METHODS: We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990-2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values. FINDINGS: 292,982 (95% UI 261,017-327,792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376,034 (343,483-407,574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was -0·3% (-1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and -2·7% (-3·9 to -1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290-2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2-0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1-1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6-3·6) in Iceland. INTERPRETATION: Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.


Assuntos
Saúde Global/tendências , Mortalidade Materna/tendências , Distribuição por Idade , Causas de Morte/tendências , Feminino , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Infecções por HIV/mortalidade , Humanos , Modelos Estatísticos , Objetivos Organizacionais , Gravidez , Complicações Infecciosas na Gravidez/mortalidade , Fatores de Risco , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Fatores de Tempo
9.
PLoS One ; 13(5): e0196643, 2018.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29768441

RESUMO

There is a paucity in current literature about the level of patients' satisfaction and factors influencing it in Bangladesh health system. We aimed to measure the level of patients' satisfaction across different types and levels of healthcare facilities and to determine which factors influence this satisfaction level. A patient exit interview was carried out among 2207 patients attending selected health facilities in two administrative divisions of Bangladesh, namely Rajshahi and Sylhet. Information on healthcare experience and satisfaction with received care was collected through an electronic structured questionnaire. Information about 'overall satisfaction with healthcare' was collected on a 10-point scale and then dichotomized based on the median-split. Binomial logistic regressions, both simple and multivariable, were conducted to identify which factors contribute significantly to patients' satisfaction. We found that 63.2% of the participants were satisfied with the healthcare service they received. Patients attending the private facilities had the highest level of satisfaction (i.e. 73%) and patients attending the primary care facilities had the lowest level of satisfaction (i.e. 52%). Factors like convenient opening hours, asking related questions to the providers, facility cleanliness and privacy settings were significantly associated with patients' satisfaction. Being satisfied with facility cleanliness (multivariable OR 4.30; 95% CI: 3.29-5.62) and privacy settings (multivariable OR 1.68; 95% CI: 1.28-2.21) were the strongest predictors of patients' satisfaction. In conclusion, a significant portion of the patients in Bangladesh are not satisfied with their received care. Patients' satisfaction can be increased by focusing on improving facility cleanliness, privacy settings and providers' interpersonal skills.


Assuntos
Instalações de Saúde/normas , Satisfação do Paciente , Adolescente , Adulto , Bangladesh , Atenção à Saúde/normas , Feminino , Hospitais/normas , Humanos , Entrevistas como Assunto , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Satisfação do Paciente/estatística & dados numéricos , Relações Médico-Paciente , Atenção Primária à Saúde/normas , Inquéritos e Questionários , Adulto Jovem
10.
JAMA Oncol ; 4(9): 1221-1227, 2018 09 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29800065

RESUMO

Introduction: Multiple myeloma (MM) is a plasma cell neoplasm with substantial morbidity and mortality. A comprehensive description of the global burden of MM is needed to help direct health policy, resource allocation, research, and patient care. Objective: To describe the burden of MM and the availability of effective therapies for 21 world regions and 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Design and Setting: We report incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2016 study. Data sources include vital registration system, cancer registry, drug availability, and survey data for stem cell transplant rates. We analyzed the contribution of aging, population growth, and changes in incidence rates to the overall change in incident cases from 1990 to 2016 globally, by sociodemographic index (SDI) and by region. We collected data on approval of lenalidomide and bortezomib worldwide. Main Outcomes and Measures: Multiple myeloma mortality; incidence; years lived with disabilities; years of life lost; and DALYs by age, sex, country, and year. Results: Worldwide in 2016 there were 138 509 (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 121 000-155 480) incident cases of MM with an age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) of 2.1 per 100 000 persons (95% UI, 1.8-2.3). Incident cases from 1990 to 2016 increased by 126% globally and by 106% to 192% for all SDI quintiles. The 3 world regions with the highest ASIR of MM were Australasia, North America, and Western Europe. Multiple myeloma caused 2.1 million (95% UI, 1.9-2.3 million) DALYs globally in 2016. Stem cell transplantation is routinely available in higher-income countries but is lacking in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of the Middle East. In 2016, lenalidomide and bortezomib had been approved in 73 and 103 countries, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: Incidence of MM is highly variable among countries but has increased uniformly since 1990, with the largest increase in middle and low-middle SDI countries. Access to effective care is very limited in many countries of low socioeconomic development, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Global health policy priorities for MM are to improve diagnostic and treatment capacity in low and middle income countries and to ensure affordability of effective medications for every patient. Research priorities are to elucidate underlying etiological factors explaining the heterogeneity in myeloma incidence.


Assuntos
Bortezomib/uso terapêutico , Carga Global da Doença/estatística & dados numéricos , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Lenalidomida/uso terapêutico , Mieloma Múltiplo/tratamento farmacológico , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Antineoplásicos/uso terapêutico , Causas de Morte , Feminino , Geografia , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Mieloma Múltiplo/diagnóstico , Mieloma Múltiplo/mortalidade , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Qualidade de Vida , Adulto Jovem
11.
JAMA Oncol ; 3(4): 524-548, 2017 Apr 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-27918777

RESUMO

IMPORTANCE: Cancer is the second leading cause of death worldwide. Current estimates on the burden of cancer are needed for cancer control planning. OBJECTIVE: To estimate mortality, incidence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 32 cancers in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. EVIDENCE REVIEW: Cancer mortality was estimated using vital registration system data, cancer registry incidence data (transformed to mortality estimates using separately estimated mortality to incidence [MI] ratios), and verbal autopsy data. Cancer incidence was calculated by dividing mortality estimates through the modeled MI ratios. To calculate cancer prevalence, MI ratios were used to model survival. To calculate YLDs, prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights. The YLLs were estimated by multiplying age-specific cancer deaths by the reference life expectancy. DALYs were estimated as the sum of YLDs and YLLs. A sociodemographic index (SDI) was created for each location based on income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Countries were categorized by SDI quintiles to summarize results. FINDINGS: In 2015, there were 17.5 million cancer cases worldwide and 8.7 million deaths. Between 2005 and 2015, cancer cases increased by 33%, with population aging contributing 16%, population growth 13%, and changes in age-specific rates contributing 4%. For men, the most common cancer globally was prostate cancer (1.6 million cases). Tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer was the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs in men (1.2 million deaths and 25.9 million DALYs). For women, the most common cancer was breast cancer (2.4 million cases). Breast cancer was also the leading cause of cancer deaths and DALYs for women (523 000 deaths and 15.1 million DALYs). Overall, cancer caused 208.3 million DALYs worldwide in 2015 for both sexes combined. Between 2005 and 2015, age-standardized incidence rates for all cancers combined increased in 174 of 195 countries or territories. Age-standardized death rates (ASDRs) for all cancers combined decreased within that timeframe in 140 of 195 countries or territories. Countries with an increase in the ASDR due to all cancers were largely located on the African continent. Of all cancers, deaths between 2005 and 2015 decreased significantly for Hodgkin lymphoma (-6.1% [95% uncertainty interval (UI), -10.6% to -1.3%]). The number of deaths also decreased for esophageal cancer, stomach cancer, and chronic myeloid leukemia, although these results were not statistically significant. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: As part of the epidemiological transition, cancer incidence is expected to increase in the future, further straining limited health care resources. Appropriate allocation of resources for cancer prevention, early diagnosis, and curative and palliative care requires detailed knowledge of the local burden of cancer. The GBD 2015 study results demonstrate that progress is possible in the war against cancer. However, the major findings also highlight an unmet need for cancer prevention efforts, including tobacco control, vaccination, and the promotion of physical activity and a healthy diet.


Assuntos
Carga Global da Doença/tendências , Neoplasias/epidemiologia , Distribuição por Idade , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Distribuição por Sexo , Fatores de Tempo
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