Forecasting the effect of the Amethyst initiative on college drinking.

BACKGROUND: A number of college presidents have endorsed the Amethyst Initiative, a call to consider lowering the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA). Our objective is to forecast the effect of the Amethyst Initiative on college drinking. METHODS: A system model of college drinking simulates MLDA changes through (i) a decrease in heavy episodic drinking (HED) because of the lower likelihood of students drinking in unsupervised settings where they model irresponsible drinking (misperception), and (ii) an increase in overall drinking among currently underage students because of increased social availability of alcohol (wetness). RESULTS: For the proportion of HEDs on campus, effects of large decreases in misperception of responsible drinking behavior were more than offset by modest increases in wetness. CONCLUSIONS: For the effect of lowering the MLDA, it appears that increases in social availability of alcohol have a stronger impact on drinking behavior than decreases in misperceptions.

Low birth weight is not associated with type 2 diabetes in African American children in New Orleans.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine if low birth weight (LBW) occurs more frequently in African American children with type 2 diabetes (T2D), and if patients with LBW differ metabolically. STUDY DESIGN: We collected birth weight, anthropometric and metabolic data from African American children with T2D born in New Orleans from clinic charts. Comparable birth weight data from all African American infants born in New Orleans were obtained from Louisiana state vital statistics. RESULTS: In African American patients with T2D, 14.3% had LBW compared to 13.9% in the reference population (z = 0.997, p = 0.33). There was no difference between LBW and non-LBW patients with regard to body mass index (BMI) at diagnosis, presenting insulin, c-peptide, glucose levels, or HbA1c one year post diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: African American children with T2D were not enriched with LBW individuals. LBW patients were not anthropometrically or metabolically different from non-LBW T2D patients. Thus prenatal factors may not be the driving force in the development of T2D in African American children.

Structural racism in the built environment: Segregation and the overconcentration of alcohol outlets.

Structural racism, evidenced in practices like residential racial segregation, has been linked to health inequities. We examined the relationship between an adverse environmental factor (alcohol outlet overconcentration), segregated neighborhoods, and county alcohol policy in Louisiana and Alabama to investigate this link. Multilevel analysis revealed high outlet density associated with segregated counties and predominantly black census tracts in counties with restrictive alcohol policy. This inverse association between policies designed to limit alcohol availability and overconcentration of outlets in black neighborhoods warrants consideration by policymakers given links between outlet density and health inequities. Consideration of these findings in historical context suggests these policies may function as a contemporary actualization of the historical use of alcohol policy to subjugate black people in the South, now over-concentrating instead of prohibiting access.

Social capital in the college setting: the impact of participation in campus activities on drinking and alcohol-related harms.

OBJECTIVE: The authors aimed to replicate previous findings on social capital and harmful alcohol outcomes in the college setting and to ascertain the protective effects of additional indicators of social capital. METHODS: Over 4 years (2000-2004), the authors conducted annual cross-sectional, random-sample student surveys at 32 US institutions of higher education (N = 15,875) and constructed multilevel models to examine the association between individual- and campus-level participation in campus activities and harmful drinking outcomes. RESULTS: At the individual level, community volunteerism was protective against harmful drinking outcomes. In contrast to past research, campus-level volunteerism was not significantly associated with the outcome measures. At both the individual and campus levels, participation in a religious organization was protective. Greek membership and varsity athletic participation were risk factors at the individual level. CONCLUSIONS: Results did not corroborate previous findings and revealed mixed results for other measures of participation at the campus level. The influence of social capital on college alcohol consumption deserves further attention.

Ecosystem Modeling of College Drinking: Parameter Estimation and Comparing Models to Data.

Recently we developed a model composed of five impulsive differential equations that describes the changes in drinking patterns (that persist at epidemic level) amongst college students. Many of the model parameters cannot be measured directly from data; thus, an inverse problem approach, which chooses the set of parameters that results in the "best" model to data fit, is crucial for using this model as a predictive tool. The purpose of this paper is to present the procedure and results of an unconventional approach to parameter estimation that we developed after more common approaches were unsuccessful for our specific problem. The results show that our model provides a good fit to survey data for 32 campuses. Using these parameter estimates, we examined the effect of two hypothetical intervention policies: 1) reducing environmental wetness, and 2) penalizing students who are caught drinking. The results suggest that reducing campus wetness may be a very effective way of reducing heavy episodic (binge) drinking on a college campus, while a policy that penalizes students who drink is not nearly as effective.

Neighborhood Social Determinants of Triple Negative Breast Cancer.

Triple Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) is an aggressive, heterogeneous subtype of breast cancer, which is more frequently diagnosed in African American (AA) women than in European American (EA) women. The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of social determinants in racial disparities in TNBC. Data on Louisiana TNBC patients diagnosed in 2010-2012 were collected and geocoded to census tract of residence at diagnosis by the Louisiana Tumor Registry. Using multilevel statistical models, we analyzed the role of neighborhood concentrated disadvantage index (CDI), a robust measure of physical and social environment, in racial disparities in TNBC incidence, stage at diagnosis, and stage-specific survival for the study population. Controlling for age, we found that AA women had a 2.21 times the incidence of TNBC incidence compared to EA women. Interestingly, the incidence of TNBC was independent of neighborhood CDI and adjusting for neighborhood environment did not impact the observed racial disparity. AA women were more likely to be diagnosed at later stages and CDI was associated with more advanced stages of TNBC at diagnosis. CDI was also significantly associated with poorer stage-specific survival. Overall, our results suggest that neighborhood disadvantage contributes to racial disparities in stage at diagnosis and survival among TNBC patients, but not to disparities in incidence of the disease. Further research is needed to determine the mechanisms through which social determinants affect the promotion and progression of this disease and guide efforts to improve overall survival.

Neighborhood disadvantage and racial disparities in colorectal cancer incidence: a population-based study in Louisiana.

PURPOSE: Colorectal cancer (CRC) continues to demonstrate racial disparities in incidence and survival in the United States. This study investigates the role of neighborhood concentrated disadvantage in racial disparities in CRC incidence in Louisiana. METHODS: Louisiana Tumor Registry and U.S. Census data were used to assess the incidence of CRC diagnosed in individuals 35 years and older between 2008 and 2012. Neighborhood concentrated disadvantage index (CDI) was calculated based on the PhenX Toolkit protocol. The incidence of CRC was modeled using multilevel binomial regression with individuals nested within neighborhoods. RESULTS: Our study included 10,198 cases of CRC. Adjusting for age and sex, CRC risk was 28% higher for blacks than whites (risk ratio [RR] = 1.28; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.22-1.33). One SD increase in CDI was associated with 14% increase in risk for whites (RR = 1.14; 95% CI = 1.10-1.18) and 5% increase for blacks (RR = 1.05; 95% CI = 1.02-1.09). After controlling for differential effects of CDI by race, racial disparities were not observed in disadvantaged areas. CONCLUSION: CRC incidence increased with neighborhood disadvantage and racial disparities diminished with mounting disadvantage. Our results suggest additional dimensions to racial disparities in CRC outside of neighborhood disadvantage that warrants further research.

Increased Risk of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Associated With Neighborhood Concentrated Disadvantage.

Purpose: Over the past three decades, Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC) is one of few cancers for which incidence has increased in the United States (US). It is likely social determinants at the population level are driving this increase. We designed a population-based study to explore whether social determinants at the neighborhood level are geographically associated with HCC incidence in Louisiana by examining the association of HCC incidence with neighborhood concentrated disadvantage. Methods: Primary HCC cases diagnosed from 2008 to 2012 identified from the Louisiana Tumor Registry were geocoded to census tract of residence at the time of diagnosis. Neighborhood concentrated disadvantage index (CDI) for each census tract was calculated according to the PhenX Toolkit data protocol based on population and socioeconomic measures from the US Census. The incidence of HCC was modeled using multilevel binomial regression with individuals nested within neighborhoods. Results: The study included 1,418 HCC cases. Incidence of HCC was greater among males than females and among black than white. In multilevel models controlling for age, race, and sex, neighborhood CDI was positively associated with the incidence of HCC. A one standard deviation increase in CDI was associated with a 22% increase in HCC risk [Risk Ratio (RR) = 1.22; 95% CI (1.15, 1.31)]. Adjusting for contextual effects of an individual's neighborhood reduced the disparity in HCC incidence. Conclusion: Neighborhood concentrated disadvantage, a robust measure of an adverse social environment, was found to be a geographically associated with HCC incidence. Differential exposure to neighborhoods characterized by concentrated disadvantage partially explained the racial disparity in HCC for Louisiana. Our results suggest that increasing rates of HCC, and existing racial disparities for the disease, are partially explained by measures of an adverse social environment.

The Social Determinants of Health Core: Taking a Place-Based Approach.

INTRODUCTION: There is growing recognition that health disparities research needs to incorporate social determinants in the local environment into explanatory models. In the transdisciplinary setting of the Mid-South Transdisciplinary Collaborative Center (TCC), the Social Determinants of Health (SDH) Core developed an approach to incorporating SDH across a variety of studies. This place-based approach, which is geographically based, transdisciplinary, and inherently multilevel, is discussed. METHODS: From 2014 through 2016, the SDH Core consulted on a variety of Mid-South TCC research studies with the goal of incorporating social determinants into their research designs. The approach used geospatial methods (e.g., geocoding) to link individual data files with measures of the physical and social environment in the SDH Core database. Once linked, the method permitted various types of analysis (e.g., multilevel analysis) to determine if racial disparities could be explained in terms of social determinants in the local environment. RESULTS: The SDH Core consulted on five Mid-South TCC research projects. In resulting analyses for all the studies, a significant portion of the variance in one or more outcomes was partially explained by a social determinant from the SDH Core database. CONCLUSIONS: The SDH Core approach to addressing health disparities by linking neighborhood social and physical environment measures to an individual-level data file proved to be a successful approach across Mid-South TCC research projects.

Street Connectivity and Obesity Risk: Evidence From Electronic Health Records.

INTRODUCTION: This study aimed to determine the feasibility of using electronic health record (EHR) data from a federally qualified health center (FQHC) to assess the association between street connectivity, a measure of walkability for the local environment, and BMI obtained from EHRs. METHODS: The study included patients who visited Daughters of Charity clinics in 2012-2013. A total of 31,297 patients were eligible, of which 28,307 were geocoded. BMI and sociodemographic information were compiled into a de-identified database. The street connectivity measure was intersection density, calculated as the number of three-way or greater intersections per unit area. Multilevel analyses of BMI, measured on 17,946 patients who were aged ≥20 years, not pregnant, had complete sociodemographic information, and a BMI value that was not considered an outlier, were conducted using random intercept models. RESULTS: Overall, on average, patients were aged 44.1 years, had a BMI of 30.2, and were mainly non-Hispanic black (59.4%). An inverse association between BMI and intersection density was observed in multilevel models controlling for age, gender, race, and marital status. Tests for multiple interactions were conducted and a significant interaction between race and intersection density indicated the decrease in BMI was strongest for non-Hispanic whites (decreased by 2) compared with blacks or Hispanics (decreased by 0.6) (p=0.0121). CONCLUSIONS: EHRs were successfully used to assess the relationship between street connectivity and BMI in a multilevel framework. Increasing street connectivity levels measured as intersection density were inversely associated with directly measured BMI obtained from EHRs, demonstrating the feasibility of the approach.

Exploring racial disparity in obesity: A mediation analysis considering geo-coded environmental factors.

Research shows aconsistent racial disparity in obesity between white and black adults in the United States. Accounting for the disparity is a challenge given the variety of the contributing factors, the nature of the association, and the multilevel relationships among the factors. We used the multivariable mediation analysis (MMA) method to explore the racial disparity in obesity considering not only the individual behavior but also geospatially derived environmental risk factors. Results from generalized linear models (GLM) were compared with those from multiple additive regression trees (MART) which allow for hierarchical data structure, and fitting of nonlinear and complex interactive relationships. As results, both individual and geographically defined factors contributed to the racial disparity in obesity. MART performed better than GLM models in that MART explained a larger proportion of the racial disparity in obesity. However, there remained disparities that cannot be explained by factors collected in this study.

A multisite randomized trial of social norms marketing campaigns to reduce college student drinking.

OBJECTIVE: An 18-site randomized trial was conducted to determine the effectiveness of social norms marketing (SNM) campaigns in reducing college student drinking. The SNM campaigns are intended to correct misperceptions of subjective drinking norms and thereby drive down alcohol consumption. METHOD: Institutions of higher education were randomly assigned to treatment and control groups. At the treatment group institutions, SNM campaigns delivered school-specific, data-driven messages through a mix of campus media venues. Cross-sectional student surveys were conducted by mail at baseline (n = 2,771) and at posttest 3 years later (n = 2,939). Hierarchical linear modeling was applied to examine multiple drinking outcomes, taking intraclass correlation into account. RESULTS: Controlling for other predictors, having an SNM campaign was significantly associated with lower perceptions of student drinking levels and lower alcohol consumption, as measured by a composite drinking scale, recent maximum consumption, blood alcohol concentration for recent maximum consumption, drinks consumed when partying, and drinks consumed per week. A moderate mediating effect of normative perceptions on student drinking was demonstrated by an attenuation of the Experimental Group x Time interaction, ranging from 16.4% to 39.5% across measures. Additional models that took into account the intensity of SNM campaign activity at the treatment institutions suggested that there was a dose-response relationship. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the most rigorous evaluation of SNM campaigns conducted to date. Analysis revealed that students attending institutions that implemented an SNM campaign had a lower relative risk of alcohol consumption than students attending control group institutions.

Sociodemographic Factors, Acculturation, and Nutrition Management among Hispanic American Adults with Self-reported Diabetes.

This study aimed to examine whether sociodemographic factors and acculturation affect achievement of selected American Diabetes Association (ADA) nutrition therapy recommendations among Hispanics with diabetes. Cross-sectional data for Hispanics with diabetes in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2003-2010 were used. Achievements of the ADA recommendation for five nutrition components were examined (i.e., daily intake of saturated fat, cholesterol, sodium, and fiber, and daily servings of alcohol). Acculturation measurement derived from language use, country of birth, and length of residence in the U.S. Logistic regressions were performed. Only 49% of Hispanics with diabetes met three or more recommended criteria. Male gender and younger age (≤45) predicted poor recommendation adherence. More acculturated individuals had around 50% lower odds to achieve saturated fat [OR 0.5, CI 0.2-0.7], fiber [OR 0.5, CI 0.2-0.9], sodium [OR 0.5, CI 0.3-0.9] and cholesterol intake [OR 0.5, CI 0.3-0.8] recommendations than their less acculturated counterparts.

Unit Nonresponse in a Population-Based Study of Prostate Cancer.

Low unit response rates can increase bias and compromise study validity. Response rates have continued to fall over the past decade despite all efforts to increase participation. Many factors have been linked to reduced response, yet relatively few studies have employed multivariate approaches to identify characteristics that differentiate respondents from nonrespondents since it is hard to collect information on the latter. We aimed to assess factors contributing to enrollment of prostate cancer (PCa) patients. We combined data from the North Carolina-Louisiana (LA) PCa Project's LA cohort, with additional sources such as US census tract and LA tumor registry data. We included specific analyses focusing on blacks, a group often identified as hard to enroll in health-related research. The ability to study the effect of Hurricane Katrina, which occurred amidst enrollment, as a potential determinant of nonresponse makes our study unique. Older age (≥ 70) for blacks (OR 0.65) and study phase with respect to Hurricane Katrina for both races (OR 0.59 for blacks, OR 0.48 for whites) were significant predictors of participation with lower odds. Neighborhood poverty for whites (OR 1.53) also was a significant predictor of participation, but with higher odds. Among blacks, residence in Orleans parish was associated with lower odds of participation (OR 0.33) before Katrina. The opposite occurred in whites, with lower odds (OR 0.43) after Katrina. Our results overall underscore the importance of tailoring enrollment approaches to specific target population characteristics to confront the challenges posed by nonresponse. Our results also show that recruitment-related factors may change when outside forces bring major alterations to a population's environment and demographics.

Racial Differences of Pediatric Hypertension in Relation to Birth Weight and Body Size in the United States.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of hypertension is known to differ by racial group in adults in the United States (US), but findings in children are scarce and inconsistent. The objective of this study was to assess the racial differences in pediatric hypertension and to explore whether these differences, if any, can be explained by low birth weight (LBW) and obesity. METHODS: Analyses were performed for participants aged 8-17 years (N = 9,250) included in the 1999-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Multivariate logistic regressions and weighted analysis were carried out considering the complex survey design. RESULTS: Compared to non-Hispanic White youth, the crude prevalence of hypertension was significantly higher in non-Hispanic Blacks (7.1% vs. 5.6%; P = 0.04), but not in Mexican Americans (5.4% vs. 5.6%; P = 0.77). Blacks also had higher rates of LBW (14.6% vs. 5.9%; P <0.001) and obesity (22.9% vs. 15.8%; P <0.001) than Whites. In stratified analysis by age-sex groups, the Black-White difference in hypertension prevalence was only significant in boys aged 13-17 (9.6% vs. 6.6%). After controlling for age, Black boys had a 51% higher odds of having hypertension (Odds ratio = 1.51; 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 3.43; P = 0.04) compared to White youth at ages 13-17. This racial difference persisted with additional adjustment for birth weight (odds ratio (OR) = 2.00; P = 0.02) and for current body mass index (OR = 1.50; P = 0.04). Mexican American youth had no difference in hypertension prevalence as compared to White youth after adjusting for age, sex, birth weight and obesity (Odds ratio = 0.82; P = 0.16) and in age-sex stratified subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Non-Hispanic Black adolescent boys have a significantly higher hypertension rate than their non-Hispanic White counterparts in the US. This racial difference cannot be explained by LBW and current obesity status within the Black population.

Association of the T allele of an intronic single nucleotide polymorphism in the colony stimulating factor 1 receptor with Crohn's disease: a case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Polymorphisms in several genes (NOD2, MDR1, SLC22A4) have been associated with susceptibility to Crohn's disease. Identification of the remaining Crohn's susceptibility genes is essential for the development of disease-specific targets for immunotherapy. Using gene expression analysis, we identified a differentially expressed gene on 5q33, the colony stimulating factor 1 receptor (CSF1R) gene, and hypothesized that it is a Crohn's susceptibility gene. The CSF1R gene is involved in monocyte to macrophage differentiation and in innate immunity. METHODS: Patients provided informed consent prior to entry into the study as approved by the Institutional Review Board at LSU Health Sciences Center. We performed forward and reverse sequencing of genomic DNA from 111 unrelated patients with Crohn's disease and 108 controls. We also stained paraffin-embedded, ileal and colonic tissue sections from patients with Crohn's disease and controls with a polyclonal antibody raised against the human CSF1R protein. RESULTS: A single nucleotide polymorphism (A2033T) near a Runx1 binding site in the eleventh intron of the colony stimulating factor 1 receptor was identified. The T allele of this single nucleotide polymorphism occurred in 27% of patients with Crohn's disease but in only 13% of controls (X2 = 6.74, p < 0.01, odds ratio (O.R.) = 2.49, 1.23 < O.R. < 5.01). Using immunohistochemistry, positive staining with a polyclonal antibody to CSF1R was observed in the superficial epithelium of ileal and colonic tissue sections. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that the colony stimulating factor receptor 1 gene may be a susceptibility gene for Crohn's disease.

Racial/Ethnic Disparities in Health-Related Quality of Life among Participants with Self-Reported Diabetes from NHANES 2001-2010.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to investigate the racial/ethnic disparities in health-related quality of life (HRQOL) among adults with self-reported diabetes and identify the different risk factors related to HRQOL for specific racial/ethnic groups in the United States. METHODS: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2001-2010 participants (ages 20 years and older) who were self-identified as non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, or Hispanic and with self-reported diabetes were included in the analysis (n = 2594). The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's HRQOL-4 was used to assess factors associated with HRQOL through multivariate logistic regression models with survey weighting. Stepwise model selection was applied to select the most significant factors for HRQOL in each racial/ethnic group. RESULTS: Hispanic participants were less likely to report 14 or more mentally unhealthy days and activity-limited days compared to non-Hispanic white counterparts, adjusting for age, sex, education, marital status, family poverty-income ratio (PIR), body mass index, smoking status, insurance coverage, and diabetes duration. Current smoking status and obesity were significantly associated with worse HRQOL among whites and blacks. Marital status predicted better HRQOL only among Hispanics. Having insurance coverage predicted better HRQOL among both blacks and Hispanics. Increased family PIR had a favorable association with the 4 HRQOL domains consistently among all races/ethnicities. CONCLUSION: Minimal racial/ethnic disparities in HRQOL were observed among US adults with self-reported diabetes. Support is offered for more individualized health care and communication with patients to target care and interventions that improve health and quality-of-life indicators.

Multilevel spatiotemporal change-point models for evaluating the effect of an alcohol outlet control policy on changes in neighborhood assaultive violence rates.

Many previous studies have suggested a link between alcohol outlets and assaultive violence rates. In 1997 the City of New Orleans adopted a series of policies, e.g., increased license fee, additional enforcement staff, and expanded powers for the alcohol license board. The policies were specifically enacted to address the proliferation of problem alcohol outlets believed to be the source of a variety of social problems including assaultive violence. In this research, we evaluate the impact of a city level policy in New Orleans to address the problem alcohol outlets and their influence on assaultive violence. The spatial association between rates of assaultive violence at the census tract level (n=170) over a ten year period raises a challenge in statistical analysis. To meet this challenge we developed a hierarchical change-point model that controls for important covariates of assaultive violence and accounts for unexplained spatial and temporal variability. While our model is somewhat complex, its hierarchical Bayesian analysis is accessible via the WinBUGS software program. Keeping other effects fixed, the implementation of the new city level policy was associated with a decrease in the positive association between census tract level rates of assaultive violence and alcohol outlet density. Comparing several candidate change-point models using the DIC criterion, the positive association began decreasing the year of the policy implementation. The magnitude of the association continued to decrease for roughly two years and then stabilized. We also created maps of the fitted assaultive violence rates in New Orleans, as well as spatial residual maps which, together with Moran's I's, suggest that the spatial variation of the data is well accounted for by our model. We reach the conclusion that the implementation of the policy is associated with a significant decrease in the positive relationship between assaultive violence and the off-sale alcohol outlet density.

Alcohol prevention on college campuses: the moderating effect of the alcohol environment on the effectiveness of social norms marketing campaigns.

OBJECTIVE: Evaluations of social norms marketing campaigns to reduce college student drinking have produced conflicting results. This study examines whether the effectiveness of such campaigns may be moderated by on-premise alcohol outlet density in the surrounding community. METHOD: Multilevel analyses were conducted of student survey responses (N= 19,838) from 32 U.S. colleges that took part in one of two 4-year randomized, controlled trials completed for the Social Norms Marketing Research Project (SNMRP). In the models, students by year were nested within treatment (n = 16) and control group (n = 16) campuses, which were characterized by the on-premise outlet density in their surrounding community. The moderating effect of outlet density was introduced into the models as an interaction between the treatment effect (i.e., the effect of the social norms marketing campaigns over time) and outlet density. The models were also stratified by campus alcohol outlet density (high vs. low) to examine the effect of the intervention in each type of setting. RESULTS: There was a significant interaction between the treatment effect and on-premise alcohol outlet density for one of the drinking outcomes targeted by the SNMRP intervention, the number of drinks when partying, and marginal evidence of interaction effects for two other outcomes, maximum recent consumption and a composite drinking scale. In stratified analyses, an intervention effect was observed for three of the four outcomes among students from campuses with lower on-premise alcohol outlet density, whereas no intervention effect was observed among students from campuses with higher on-premise alcohol outlet density. CONCLUSIONS: The findings suggest that the campus alcohol environment moderates the effect of social norms marketing interventions. Social norms marketing intervention may be less effective on campuses with higher densities of on-sale alcohol outlets.

Heavy episodic drinking on college campuses: does changing the legal drinking age make a difference?

OBJECTIVE: This article extends the compartmental model previously developed by Scribner et al. in the context of college drinking to a mathematical model of the consequences of lowering the legal drinking age. METHOD: Using data available from 32 U.S. campuses, the analyses separate underage and legal age drinking groups into an eight-compartment model with different alcohol availability (wetness) for the underage and legal age groups. The model evaluates the likelihood that underage students will incorrectly perceive normative drinking levels to be higher than they actually are (i.e., misperception) and adjust their drinking accordingly by varying the interaction between underage students in social and heavy episodic drinking compartments. RESULTS: The results evaluate the total heavy episodic drinker population and its dependence on the difference in misperception, as well as its dependence on underage wetness, legal age wetness, and drinking age. CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that an unrealistically extreme combination of high wetness and low enforcement would be needed for the policies related to lowering the drinking age to be effective.