Validation of the BOADICEA model in a prospective cohort of BRCA1/2 pathogenic variant carriers.

BACKGROUND: No validation has been conducted for the BOADICEA multifactorial breast cancer risk prediction model specifically in BRCA1/2 pathogenic variant (PV) carriers to date. Here, we evaluated the performance of BOADICEA in predicting 5-year breast cancer risks in a prospective cohort of BRCA1/2 PV carriers ascertained through clinical genetic centres. METHODS: We evaluated the model calibration and discriminatory ability in the prospective TRANsIBCCS cohort study comprising 1614 BRCA1 and 1365 BRCA2 PV carriers (209 incident cases). Study participants had lifestyle, reproductive, hormonal, anthropometric risk factor information, a polygenic risk score based on 313 SNPs and family history information. RESULTS: The full multifactorial model considering family history together with all other risk factors was well calibrated overall (E/O=1.07, 95% CI: 0.92 to 1.24) and in quintiles of predicted risk. Discrimination was maximised when all risk factors were considered (Harrell's C-index=0.70, 95% CI: 0.67 to 0.74; area under the curve=0.79, 95% CI: 0.76 to 0.82). The model performance was similar when evaluated separately in BRCA1 or BRCA2 PV carriers. The full model identified 5.8%, 12.9% and 24.0% of BRCA1/2 PV carriers with 5-year breast cancer risks of <1.65%, <3% and <5%, respectively, risk thresholds commonly used for different management and risk-reduction options. CONCLUSION: BOADICEA may be used to aid personalised cancer risk management and decision-making for BRCA1 and BRCA2 PV carriers. It is implemented in the free-access CanRisk tool (https://www.canrisk.org/).

Is the CTS5 a helpful decision-making tool in the extended adjuvant therapy setting?

PURPOSE: The Clinical Treatment Score post-5 years (CTS5) is an easy-to-use tool estimating the late distant recurrence (LDR) risk in patients with hormone receptor-positive breast cancer after 5 years of endocrine therapy (ET). Apart from evaluating the prognostic value and calibration accuracy of CTS5, the aim of this study is to clarify if this score is able to identify patients at higher risk for LDR who will benefit from extended ET. METHODS: Prognostic power, calibration, and predictive value of the CTS5 was tested in patients of the prospective ABCSG-06 and -06a trials (n = 1254 and 860 patients, respectively). Time to LDR was analyzed with Cox regression models. RESULTS: Higher rates of LDR in the years five to ten were observed in high- and intermediate-risk patients compared to low-risk patients (HR 4.02, 95%CI 2.26-7.15, p < 0.001 and HR 1.93, 95%CI 1.05-3.56, p = 0.035). An increasing continuous CTS5 was associated with increasing LDR risk (HR 2.23, 95% CI 1.74-2.85, p < 0.001). Miscalibration of CTS5 in high-risk patients could be observed. Although not reaching significance, high-risk patients benefitted the most from prolonged ET with an absolute reduction of the estimated 5-year LDR of - 6.1% (95%CI - 14.4 to 2.3). CONCLUSION: The CTS5 is a reliable prognostic tool that is well calibrated in the lower and intermediate risk groups with a substantial difference of expected versus observed LDR rates in high-risk patients. While a numerical trend in favoring prolonged ET for patients with a higher CTS5 was found, a significantly predictive value for the score could not be confirmed. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: ABCSG-06 trial (NCT00309491), ABCSG-06A7 1033AU/0001 (NCT00300508).

Incidence of endometrial cancer in BRCA mutation carriers.

OBJECTIVE: Whether or not women who harbor a germline pathogenic variant ('mutation') in the BRCA1 or BRCA2 genes are at elevated risk of developing endometrial cancer is yet to be determined. METHODS: We conducted a prospective analysis of 4959 BRCA mutation carriers with no prior history of cancer (except for breast or melanoma) and an intact uterus. RESULTS: After a mean of 6.7 years of follow-up there were 38 incident cases of endometrial cancer diagnosed; 30 among BRCA1 carriers and eight among BRCA2 carriers. The mean age at diagnosis was 58.4 years (range 46.8-76.1). The majority were of the endometrioid subtype (n = 16), followed by mixed endometroid and serous (n = 4), serous (n = 3) or clear cell (n = 1) (missing = 13). The cumulative incidence from age 40 to age 70 was 3.4% for BRCA1 carriers and was 1.6% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. Prior tamoxifen use was associated with a significant two-fold increased risk (HR = 2.24; 95% CI 1.10-4.55). There was no significant association between exogenous hormone use, oophorectomy, smoking or BMI at age 40 and risk (P ≥ 0.32). CONCLUSIONS: Compared to the general population, we observed higher rates of endometrial cancer among young BRCA1 mutation carriers; however, lifetime risks were similar. Women with prior tamoxifen exposure were at a significantly increased risk. These findings were based. on a small number of incident cases and require confirmation with additional follow-up of our aging cohort.

Clinical applications of next-generation sequencing-based ctDNA analyses in breast cancer: defining treatment targets and dynamic changes during disease progression.

The advancements in the detection and characterization of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) have revolutionized precision medicine and are likely to transform standard clinical practice. The non-invasive nature of this approach allows for molecular profiling of the entire tumor entity, while also enabling real-time monitoring of the effectiveness of cancer therapies as well as the identification of resistance mechanisms to guide targeted therapy. Although the field of ctDNA studies offers a wide range of applications, including in early disease, in this review we mainly focus on the role of ctDNA in the dynamic molecular characterization of unresectable locally advanced and metastatic BC (mBC). Here, we provide clinical practice guidance for the rapidly evolving field of molecular profiling of mBC, outlining the current landscape of liquid biopsy applications and how to choose the right ctDNA assay. Additionally, we underline the importance of exploring the clinical relevance of novel molecular alterations that potentially represent therapeutic targets in mBC, along with mutations where targeted therapy is already approved. Finally, we present a potential roadmap for integrating ctDNA analysis into clinical practice.

Incidence of Peritoneal Cancer Following Oophorectomy among BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutation Carriers.

BACKGROUND: To estimate the incidence of primary peritoneal cancer following preventive bilateral oophorectomy in women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation. METHODS: A total of 6,310 women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation who underwent a preventive bilateral oophorectomy were followed for a mean of 7.8 years from oophorectomy. The 20-year cumulative incidence of peritoneal cancer post-oophorectomy was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. A left-truncated Cox proportional hazard analysis was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) associated with the age at oophorectomy, year of oophorectomy, and family history of ovarian cancer as well as hormonal and reproductive risk factors. RESULTS: Fifty-five women developed primary peritoneal cancer (n = 45 in BRCA1, 8 in BRCA2, and 2 in women with a mutation in both genes). Their mean age at oophorectomy was 48.9 years. The annual risk of peritoneal cancer was 0.14% for women with a BRCA1 mutation and was 0.06% for women with a BRCA2 mutation. The 20-year cumulative risk of peritoneal cancer from the date of oophorectomy was 2.7% for BRCA1 carriers and was 0.9% for BRCA2 mutation carriers. There were no peritoneal cancers in BRCA1 carriers who had the operation before age 35 or in BRCA2 carriers who had the operation before age 45. CONCLUSIONS: For BRCA1 mutation carriers, the annual risk of peritoneal cancer for 20 years post-oophorectomy is 0.14% per year. The risk is lower for BRCA2 carriers (0.06% per year).

MRI Surveillance and Breast Cancer Mortality in Women With BRCA1 and BRCA2 Sequence Variations.

Importance: Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) surveillance is offered to women with a pathogenic variant in the BRCA1 or BRCA2 gene who face a high lifetime risk of breast cancer. Surveillance with MRI is effective in downstaging breast cancers, but the association of MRI surveillance with mortality risk has not been well defined. Objective: To compare breast cancer mortality rates in women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 sequence variation who entered an MRI surveillance program with those who did not. Design, Setting, and Participants: Women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 sequence variation were identified from 59 participating centers in 11 countries. Participants completed a baseline questionnaire between 1995 and 2015 and a follow-up questionnaire every 2 years to document screening histories, incident cancers, and vital status. Women who had breast cancer, a screening MRI examination, or bilateral mastectomy prior to enrollment were excluded. Participants were followed up from age 30 years (or the date of the baseline questionnaire, whichever was later) until age 75 years, the last follow-up, or death from breast cancer. Data were analyzed from January 1 to July 31, 2023. Exposures: Entrance into an MRI surveillance program. Main Outcomes and Measures: Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for breast cancer mortality associated with MRI surveillance compared with no MRI surveillance using a time-dependent analysis. Results: A total of 2488 women (mean [range] age at study entry 41.2 [30-69] years), with a sequence variation in the BRCA1 (n = 2004) or BRCA2 (n = 484) genes were included in the analysis. Of these participants, 1756 (70.6%) had at least 1 screening MRI examination and 732 women (29.4%) did not. After a mean follow-up of 9.2 years, 344 women (13.8%) developed breast cancer and 35 women (1.4%) died of breast cancer. The age-adjusted HRs for breast cancer mortality associated with entering an MRI surveillance program were 0.20 (95% CI, 0.10-0.43; P < .001) for women with BRCA1 sequence variations and 0.87 (95% CI, 0.10-17.25; P = .93) for women with BRCA2 sequence variations. Conclusion and Relevance: Results of this cohort study suggest that among women with a BRCA1 sequence variation, MRI surveillance was associated with a significant reduction in breast cancer mortality compared with no MRI surveillance. Further studies of women with BRCA2 sequence variations are needed to ascertain these women obtain the same benefits associated with MRI surveillance.

Bilateral Oophorectomy and All-Cause Mortality in Women With BRCA1 and BRCA2 Sequence Variations.

Importance: Preventive bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy is offered to women at high risk of ovarian cancer who carry a pathogenic variant in BRCA1 or BRCA2; however, the association of oophorectomy with all-cause mortality has not been clearly defined. Objective: To evaluate the association between bilateral oophorectomy and all-cause mortality among women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 sequence variation. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this international, longitudinal cohort study of women with BRCA sequence variations, information on bilateral oophorectomy was obtained via biennial questionnaire. Participants were women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 sequence variation, no prior history of cancer, and at least 1 follow-up questionnaire completed. Women were followed up from age 35 to 75 years for incident cancers and deaths. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for all-cause mortality associated with a bilateral oophorectomy (time dependent). Data analysis was performed from January 1 to June 1, 2023. Exposures: Self-reported bilateral oophorectomy (with or without salpingectomy). Main Outcomes and Measures: All-cause mortality, breast cancer-specific mortality, and ovarian cancer-specific mortality. Results: There were 4332 women (mean age, 42.6 years) enrolled in the cohort, of whom 2932 (67.8%) chose to undergo a preventive oophorectomy at a mean (range) age of 45.4 (23.0-77.0) years. After a mean follow-up of 9.0 years, 851 women had developed cancer and 228 had died; 57 died of ovarian or fallopian tube cancer, 58 died of breast cancer, 16 died of peritoneal cancer, and 97 died of other causes. The age-adjusted HR for all-cause mortality associated with oophorectomy was 0.32 (95% CI, 0.24-0.42; P < .001). The age-adjusted HR was 0.28 (95% CI, 0.20-0.38; P < .001) and 0.43 (95% CI, 0.22-0.90; P = .03) for women with BRCA1 and BRCA2 sequence variations, respectively. For women with BRCA1 sequence variations, the estimated cumulative all-cause mortality to age 75 years for women who had an oophorectomy at age 35 years was 25%, compared to 62% for women who did not have an oophorectomy. For women with BRCA2 sequence variations, the estimated cumulative all-cause mortality to age 75 years was 14% for women who had an oophorectomy at age 35 years compared to 28% for women who did not have an oophorectomy. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study among women with a BRCA1 or BRCA2 sequence variation, oophorectomy was associated with a significant reduction in all-cause mortality.