RESUMO
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Thinning of the retinal combined ganglion cell and inner plexiform layer (GCIP) as measured by optical coherence tomography (OCT) is a common finding in patients with multiple sclerosis. This study aimed to investigate whether a single retinal OCT analysis allows prediction of future disease activity after a first demyelinating event. METHODS: This observational cohort study included 201 patients with recently diagnosed clinically isolated syndrome or relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis from two German tertiary referral centers. Individuals underwent neurological examination, magnetic resonance imaging, and OCT at baseline and at yearly follow-up visits. RESULTS: Patients were included at a median disease duration of 2.0 months. During a median follow-up of 59 (interquartile range = 43-71) months, 82% of patients had ongoing disease activity as demonstrated by failing the no evidence of disease activity 3 (NEDA-3) criteria, and 19% presented with confirmed disability worsening. A GCIP threshold of ≤77 µm at baseline identified patients with a high risk for NEDA-3 failure (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.1-2.8, p = 0.04), and GCIP measures of ≤69 µm predicted disability worsening (HR = 2.2, 95% CI = 1.2-4.3, p = 0.01). Higher rates of annualized GCIP loss increased the risk for disability worsening (HR = 2.5 per 1 µm/year increase of GCIP loss, p = 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Ganglion cell thickness as measured by OCT after the initial manifestation of multiple sclerosis may allow early risk stratification as to future disease activity and progression.