Prediction of disease severity in young children presenting with acute febrile illness in resource-limited settings: a protocol for a prospective observational study.

INTRODUCTION: In rural and difficult-to-access settings, early and accurate recognition of febrile children at risk of progressing to serious illness could contribute to improved patient outcomes and better resource allocation. This study aims to develop a prognostic clinical prediction tool to assist community healthcare providers identify febrile children who might benefit from referral or admission for facility-based medical care. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This prospective observational study will recruit at least 4900 paediatric inpatients and outpatients under the age of 5 years presenting with an acute febrile illness to seven hospitals in six countries across Asia. A venous blood sample and nasopharyngeal swab is collected from each participant and detailed clinical data recorded at presentation, and each day for the first 48 hours of admission for inpatients. Multianalyte assays are performed at reference laboratories to measure a panel of host biomarkers, as well as targeted aetiological investigations for common bacterial and viral pathogens. Clinical outcome is ascertained on day 2 and day 28.Presenting syndromes, clinical outcomes and aetiology of acute febrile illness will be described and compared across sites. Following the latest guidance in prediction model building, a prognostic clinical prediction model, combining simple clinical features and measurements of host biomarkers, will be derived and geographically externally validated. The performance of the model will be evaluated in specific presenting clinical syndromes and fever aetiologies. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The study has received approval from all relevant international, national and institutional ethics committees. Written informed consent is provided by the caretaker of all participants. Results will be shared with local and national stakeholders, and disseminated via peer-reviewed open-access journals and scientific meetings. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04285021.

Molecular epidemiology of dengue viruses in three provinces of Lao PDR, 2006-2010.

Few data on dengue epidemiology are available for Lao PDR. Here, we provide information on the complexity of dengue epidemiology in the country, demonstrating dynamic circulation that varies over space and time, according to serotype. We recruited 1,912 consenting patients presenting with WHO dengue criteria at Mahosot Hospital, Vientiane (central Laos), between 2006 and 2010. Between 2008 and 2010, 1,413 patients with undifferentiated fever were also recruited at Luang Namtha (LNT) Provincial Hospital (northern Laos) and 555 at Salavan (SV) Provincial Hospital (southern Laos). We report significant variations in Dengue virus (DENV) circulation between the three sites. Peaks of DENV infection were observed in the rainy seasons, although 11% of confirmed cases in the provinces and 4.6% in the capital were detected during the dry and cool seasons (between December and February). Four DENV serotypes were detected among the 867 RT-PCR positive patients: 76.9% DENV-1, 9.6% DENV-2, 7.7% DENV-4 and 5.3% DENV-3. DENV-1 was the predominant serotype throughout the study except in LNT in 2008 and 2009 when it was DENV-2. Before July 2009, DENV-2 was not detected in SV and only rarely detected in Vientiane. DENV-3 and DENV-4 were commonly detected in Vientiane, before 2008 for DENV-4 and after 2009 for DENV-3. The phylogenetic analyses of DENV envelope sequences suggest concurrent multiple introductions of new strains as well as active DENV circulation throughout Laos and with neighboring countries. It is therefore of great importance to develop and strengthen a year-round nation-wide surveillance network in order to collect data that would allow anticipation of public health issues caused by the occurrence of large dengue outbreaks.

Toad poisoning in Laos.

We describe two patients who developed severe illness after eating the skin and eggs of a toad, probably Bufo melanostictus Schneider, in southeastern Laos. One boy died, and one developed a digoxin toxicity-like syndrome with bradycardia and heart failure but survived. A telephone survey of 16 Lao provincial hospitals suggested that toad poisoning occurs in at least six provinces. That 93% of villagers in three villages in southeastern Laos were aware that toads are poisonous but that 51% had encountered patients with toad toxicity suggests that the potential gravity is not appreciated. These data indicate that toad poisoning may be underestimated and that education on the seriousness of toad toxins could be a useful public health measure.