Understanding the rise in traditional contraceptive methods use in Uttar Pradesh, India.

BACKGROUND: The sustainable development goals (SDG) aim at satisfying three-fourths of family planning needs through modern contraceptive methods by 2030. However, the traditional methods (TM) of family planning use are on the rise, along with modern contraception in Uttar Pradesh (UP), the most populous Indian state. This study attempts to explore the dynamics of rising TM use in the state. METHODS: We used a state representative cross-sectional survey conducted among 12,200 Currently Married Women (CMW) aged 15-49 years during December 2020-February 2021 in UP. Using a multistage sampling technique, 508 primary sampling units (PSU) were selected. These PSU were ASHA areas in rural settings and Census Enumeration Blocks in urban settings. About 27 households from each PSU were randomly selected. All the eligible women within the selected households were interviewed. The survey also included the nearest public health facilities to understand the availability of family planning methods. Univariate and bivariate analyses were conducted. Appropriate sampling weights were applied. RESULTS: Overall, 33.9% of CMW were using any modern methods and 23.7% any TM (Rhythm and withdrawal) at the time of survey. The results show that while the modern method use has increased by 2.2 percentage points, the TM use increased by 9.9 percentage points compared to NFHS-4 (2015-16). The use of TM was almost same across women of different socio-demographic characteristics. Of 2921 current TM users, 80.7% started with TM and 78.3% expressed to continue with the same in future. No side effects (56.9%), easy to use (41.7%) and no cost incurred (38.0%) were the main reasons for the continuation of TM. TM use increased despite a significant increase (66.1 to 81.3%) in the availability of modern reversible methods and consistent availability of limiting methods (84.0%) in the nearest public health facilities. CONCLUSION: Initial contraceptive method was found to have significant implications for current contraceptive method choice and future preferences. Program should reach young and zero-parity women with modern method choices by leveraging front-line workers in rural UP. Community and facility platforms can also be engaged in providing modern method choices to women of other parities to increase modern contraceptive use further to achieve the SDG goals.

In Uttar Pradesh, the use of traditional methods of contraception is on the rise, observed similarly in many other Indian states in recent times. The emphasis on modern contraceptive methods and the rise and high prevalence of traditional method use in the state call for a systematic assessment to understand the dynamics such as patterns, prevalence and reasons for traditional method use for better family planning programming. Using a state representative cross-sectional survey data from Uttar Pradesh, we attempted to understand the dynamics of increasing traditional methods use. We found no significant variations in use of traditional methods by their socio-demographic characteristics. Not only that, most current traditional method users reported that their first method was a traditional method and an overwhelming proportion of women (4/5 traditional methods users) expressed to continue with the same method in future. Also the findings reveal that more than half of the traditional method users used the method consistently over the three-years calendar period. Among those who had unmet need at the time of survey, a considerable proportion of them intend to use traditional methods in future. This emphasized the importance of initial contraceptive method choice on current contraceptive use and future preference. Traditional methods use increased in the state despite a significant increase (66.1 to 81.3% during 2018 to 2021) in availability of modern reversible methods and consistent availability of limiting method (84.0%) in public health facilities.

Near-universal marriage, early childbearing, and low fertility: India's alternative fertility transition.

OBJECTIVE: To compare fertility in India to both low-to-middle-income and high-income countries (LMICs and HICs) and describe the patterns that have accompanied India's transition to low fertility. METHODS: We use data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), the United Nations (UN), and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to observe factors associated with fertility decline in 36 Indian states and 76 countries. RESULTS: Although fertility in India has declined to levels similar to HICs, women's entry into marriage and initiation of childbearing are more in line with patterns found in LMICs. The vast majority of women in India (97%) are married by age 30, and their average age at first birth is only 21.3 years old. In spite of these patterns, average fertility has declined in India as a result of earlier termination of childbearing. Among more recent cohorts, fewer women progressed to higher-order births and about half of women obtained a sterilization by age 35. CONCLUSIONS: India has reached low fertility by mechanisms outside the traditional indicators of fertility decline. In contrast to countries that have achieved low fertility through delayed age at first birth, women in India have continued to enter unions and bear children early, lowered their age at last birth, and increasingly ended their fertility via sterilization following the birth of two children. CONTRIBUTION: Evidence from India reveals an alternative pathway to low fertility, highlighting the limitations of traditional socioeconomic indicators for explaining fertility decline.

Mothers' Social Status and Children's Health: Evidence From Joint Households in Rural India.

The premise that a woman's social status has intergenerational effects on her children's health has featured prominently in population science research and in development policy. This study focuses on an important case in which social hierarchy has such an effect. In joint patrilocal households in rural India, women married to the younger brother are assigned lower social rank than women married to the older brother in the same household. Almost 8% of rural Indian children under 5 years old-more than 6 million children-live in such households. We show that children of lower-ranking mothers are less likely to survive and have worse health outcomes, reflected in higher neonatal mortality and shorter height, compared with children of higher-ranking mothers in the same household. That the variation in mothers' social status that we study is not subject to reporting bias is an advantage relative to studies using self-reported measures. We present evidence that one mechanism for this effect is maternal nutrition: although they are not shorter, lower-ranking mothers weigh less than higher-ranking mothers. These results suggest that programs that merely make transfers to households without attention to intrahousehold distribution may not improve child outcomes.

Research Note: Intergenerational Transmission Is Not Sufficient for Positive Long-Term Population Growth.

All leading long-term global population projections agree on continuing fertility decline, resulting in a rate of population size growth that will continue to decline toward zero and would eventually turn negative. However, scholarly and popular arguments have suggested that because fertility transmits intergenerationally (i.e., higher fertility parents tend to have higher fertility children) and is heterogeneous within a population, long-term population growth must eventually be positive, as high-fertility groups come to dominate the population. In this research note, we show that intergenerational transmission of fertility is not sufficient for positive long-term population growth, for empirical and theoretical reasons. First, because transmission is imperfect, the combination of transmission rates and fertility rates may be quantitatively insufficient for long-term population growth: higher fertility parents may nevertheless produce too few children who retain higher fertility preferences. Second, today even higher fertility subpopulations show declining fertility rates, which may eventually fall below replacement (and in some populations already are). Therefore, although different models of fertility transmission across generations reach different conclusions, depopulation is likely under any model if, in the future, even higher fertility subpopulations prefer and achieve below-replacement fertility. These results highlight the plausibility of long-term global depopulation and the importance of understanding the possible consequences of depopulation.

Endogenous inclusion in the Demographic and Health Survey anthropometric sample: Implications for studying height within households.

Development economists study both anthropometry and intra-household allocation. In these literatures, the Demographic and Household Surveys (DHS) are essential. The DHS censors its anthropometric sample by age: only children under five are measured. We document several econometric consequences, especially for estimating birth-order effects. Child birth order and mothers' fertility are highly correlated in the age-censored anthropometric subsample. Moreover, family structures and age patterns that permit within-family comparisons of siblings' anthropometry are unrepresentative. So strategies that could separate birth order and fertility in other data cannot here. We show that stratification by mother's fertility is important. We illustrate this by comparing India and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Children in India born to higher-fertility mothers are shorter, on average, than children of lower-fertility mothers. Yet, later-born children in India are taller, adjusted for age, than earlier-born children of the same sibsize. In SSA, neither of these associations is large.

Additively-separable and rank-discounted variable-population social welfare functions: A characterization.

Economic policy evaluations require social welfare functions for variable-size populations. Two important candidates are critical-level generalized utilitarianism (CLGU) and rank-discounted critical-level generalized utilitarianism, which was recently characterized by Asheim and Zuber (2014) (AZ). AZ introduce a novel axiom, existence of egalitarian equivalence (EEE). First, we show that, under some uncontroversial criteria for a plausible social welfare relation, EEE suffices to rule out the Repugnant Conclusion of population ethics (without AZ's other novel axioms). Second, we provide a new characterization of CLGU: AZ's set of axioms is equivalent to CLGU when EEE is replaced by the axiom same-number independence.

Population ethics and the prospects for fertility policy as climate mitigation policy.

What are the prospects for using population policy as tool to reduce carbon emissions? In this paper, we review evidence from population science, in order to inform debates in population ethics that, so far, have largely taken place within the academic philosophy literature. In particular, we ask whether fertility policy is likely to have a large effect on carbon emissions, and therefore on temperature change. Our answer is no. Prospects for a policy of fertility-reduction-as-climate-mitigation are limited by population momentum, a demographic factor that limits possible variation in the size of the population, even if fertility rates change very quickly. In particular, a hypothetical policy that instantaneously changed fertility and mortality rates to replacement levels would nevertheless result in a population of over 9 billion people in 2060. We use a leading climate-economy model to project the consequence of such a hypothetical policy for climate change. As a standalone mitigation policy, such a hypothetical change in the size of the future population - much too large to be implementable by any foreseeable government program - would reduce peak temperature change only to 6.4°C, relative to 7.1°C under the most likely population path. Therefore, fertility reduction is unlikely to be an adequate core approach to climate mitigation.

Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy.

Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period's discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing-rather than merely cost savings-again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population.

Exposure to open defecation can account for the Indian enigma of child height.

Physical height is an important measure of human capital. However, differences in average height across developing countries are poorly explained by economic differences. Children in India are shorter than poorer children in Africa, a widely studied puzzle called "the Asian enigma." This paper proposes and quantitatively investigates the hypothesis that differences in sanitation - and especially in the population density of open defecation - can statistically account for an important component of the Asian enigma, India's gap relative to sub-Saharan Africa. The paper's main result computes a demographic projection of the increase in the average height of Indian children, if they were counterfactually exposed to sub-Saharan African sanitation, using a non-parametric reweighting method. India's projected increase in mean height is at least as large as the gap. The analysis also critically reviews evidence from recent estimates in the literature. Two possible mechanisms are effects on children and on their mothers.

Mere Addition is equivalent to avoiding the Sadistic Conclusion in all plausible variable-population social orderings.

Economic policy evaluations require social welfare functions for variable-size populations. Two important axioms in the population ethics literature are Mere Addition and avoidance of the Sadistic Conclusion, both of which focus on the sign of lifetime utility. The population ethics literature treats these axioms as closely related but distinct: one influential review calls avoidance of the Sadistic Conclusion "less controversial." Here, we provide weak, uncontroversial sufficient conditions for these two principles to be equivalent. Related results exist in prior literature, but these include only same-number utilitarian orderings and therefore exclude recent and theoretically important rank-dependent social evaluations that we include. [100 words].

The implications of three major new trials for the effect of water, sanitation and hygiene on childhood diarrhea and stunting: a consensus statement.

BACKGROUND: Three large new trials of unprecedented scale and cost, which included novel factorial designs, have found no effect of basic water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) interventions on childhood stunting, and only mixed effects on childhood diarrhea. Arriving at the inception of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals, and the bold new target of safely managed water, sanitation and hygiene for all by 2030, these results warrant the attention of researchers, policy-makers and practitioners. MAIN BODY: Here we report the conclusions of an expert meeting convened by the World Health Organization and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to discuss these findings, and present five key consensus messages as a basis for wider discussion and debate in the WASH and nutrition sectors. We judge these trials to have high internal validity, constituting good evidence that these specific interventions had no effect on childhood linear growth, and mixed effects on childhood diarrhea. These results suggest that, in settings such as these, more comprehensive or ambitious WASH interventions may be needed to achieve a major impact on child health. CONCLUSION: These results are important because such basic interventions are often deployed in low-income rural settings with the expectation of improving child health, although this is rarely the sole justification. Our view is that these three new trials do not show that WASH in general cannot influence child linear growth, but they do demonstrate that these specific interventions had no influence in settings where stunting remains an important public health challenge. We support a call for transformative WASH, in so much as it encapsulates the guiding principle that - in any context - a comprehensive package of WASH interventions is needed that is tailored to address the local exposure landscape and enteric disease burden.

The association of early-life exposure to ambient PM2.5 and later-childhood height-for-age in India: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Children in India are exposed to high levels of ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5). However, population-level evidence of associations with adverse health outcomes from within the country is limited. The aim of our study is to estimate the association of early-life exposure to ambient PM2.5 with child health outcomes (height-for-age) in India. METHODS: We linked nationally-representative anthropometric data from India's 2015-2016 Demographic and Health Survey (n = 218,152 children under five across 640 districts of India) with satellite-based PM2.5 exposure (concentration) data. We then applied fixed effects regression to assess the association between early-life ambient PM2.5 and subsequent height-for-age, analyzing whether deviations in air pollution from the seasonal average for a particular place are associated with deviations in child height from the average for that season in that place, controlling for trends over time, temperature, and birth, mother, and household characteristics. We also explored the timing of exposure and potential non-linearities in the concentration-response relationship. RESULTS: Children in the sample were exposed to an average of 55 µ g/m3 of PM2.5 in their birth month. After controlling for potential confounders, a 100 µg/m3 increase in PM2.5 in the month of birth was associated with a 0.05 [0.01-0.09] standard deviation reduction in child height. For an average 5 year old girl, this represents a height deficit of 0.24 [0.05-0.43] cm. We also found that exposure to PM2.5 in the last trimester in utero and in the first few months of life are significantly (p < 0.05) associated with child height deficits. We did not observe a decreasing marginal risk at high levels of exposure. CONCLUSIONS: India experiences some of the worst air pollution in the world. To our knowledge, this is the first study to estimate the association of early-life exposure to ambient PM2.5 on child height-for-age at the range of ambient pollution exposures observed in India. Because average exposure to ambient PM2.5 is high in India, where child height-for-age is a critical challenge in human development, our results highlight ambient air pollution as a public health policy priority.

Local Social Inequality, Economic Inequality, and Disparities in Child Height in India.

This study investigates disparities in child height-an important marker of population-level health-among population groups in rural India. India is an informative context in which to study processes of health disparities because of wide heterogeneity in the degree of local segregation or integration among caste groups. Building on a literature that identifies discrimination by quantifying whether differences in socioeconomic status (SES) can account for differences in health, we decompose height differences between rural children from higher castes and rural children from three disadvantaged groups. We find that socioeconomic differences can explain the height gap for children from Scheduled Tribes (STs), who tend to live in geographically isolated places. However, SES does not fully explain height gaps for children from the Scheduled Castes (SC) and Other Backward Classes (OBCs). Among SC and OBC children, local processes of discrimination also matter: the fraction of households in a child's locality that outrank her household in the caste hierarchy predicts her height. SC and OBC children who are surrounded by other lower-caste households are no shorter than higher-caste children of the same SES. Our results contrast with studies from other populations where segregation or apartheid are negatively associated with health.

Optimal Climate Policy and the Future of World Economic Development.

How much should the present generations sacrifice to reduce emissions today, in order to reduce the future harms of climate change? Within climate economics, debate on this question has been focused on so-called "ethical parameters" of social time preference and inequality aversion. We show that optimal climate policy similarly importantly depends on the future of the developing world. In particular, although global poverty is falling and the economic lives of the poor are improving worldwide, leading models of climate economics may be too optimistic about two central predictions: future population growth in poor countries, and future convergence in total factor productivity (TFP). We report results of small modifications to a standard model: under plausible scenarios for high future population growth (especially in sub-Saharan Africa) and for low future TFP convergence, we find that optimal near-term carbon taxes could be substantially larger.

Sanitation and Religion in South Asia: What Accounts for Differences across Countries?

Exposure to open defecation has serious consequences for child mortality, health, and human capital development. South Asia has the highest rates of open defecation worldwide, and although the incidence declines as household income rises, differences across South Asian countries are not explained by differences in per capita income. The rate of open defecation in sub-national regions of Bangladesh, India and Nepal is highly correlated with the fraction of the population that identifies as Hindu, in part because certain rituals of purity and pollution discourage having latrines in close proximity to one's home. Almost all open defecation occurs in rural areas, and this paper estimates how much the rate could be reduced if rural households in regions that have a higher fraction of Hindus, where open defecation is still common, altered their behaviour to reflect that of non-Hindu households in regions that are predominantly non-Hindu, where the rate of open defecation is much lower. Using nonparametric reweighting methods, this paper projects that rural open defecation in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal could be reduced to rates of between 6 and 8 per cent, compared to the prevailing level of 65 per cent.

Place and Child Health: The Interaction of Population Density and Sanitation in Developing Countries.

A long literature in demography has debated the importance of place for health, especially children's health. In this study, we assess whether the importance of dense settlement for infant mortality and child height is moderated by exposure to local sanitation behavior. Is open defecation (i.e., without a toilet or latrine) worse for infant mortality and child height where population density is greater? Is poor sanitation is an important mechanism by which population density influences child health outcomes? We present two complementary analyses using newly assembled data sets, which represent two points in a trade-off between external and internal validity. First, we concentrate on external validity by studying infant mortality and child height in a large, international child-level data set of 172 Demographic and Health Surveys, matched to census population density data for 1,800 subnational regions. Second, we concentrate on internal validity by studying child height in Bangladeshi districts, using a new data set constructed with GIS techniques that allows us to control for fixed effects at a high level of geographic resolution. We find a statistically robust and quantitatively comparable interaction between sanitation and population density with both approaches: open defecation externalities are more important for child health outcomes where people live more closely together.

Long-term population projections: Scenarios of low or rebounding fertility.

The size of the human population is projected to peak in the 21st century. But quantitative projections past 2100 are rare, and none quantify the possibility of a rebound from low fertility to replacement-level fertility. Moreover, the most recent long-term deterministic projections were published a decade ago; since then there has been further global fertility decline. Here we provide updated long-term cohort-component population projections and extend the set of scenarios in the literature to include scenarios in which future fertility (a) stays below replacement or (b) recovers and increases. We also characterize old-age dependency ratios. We show that any stable, long-run size of the world population would persistently depend on when an increase towards replacement fertility begins. Without such an increase, the 400-year span when more than 2 billion people were alive would be a brief spike in history. Indeed, four-fifths of all births-past, present, and future-would have already happened.