Identification of type 1 diabetes risk phenotypes using an outcome-guided clustering analysis.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Although statistical models for predicting type 1 diabetes risk have been developed, approaches that reveal the heterogeneity of the at-risk population by identifying clinically meaningful clusters are lacking. We aimed to identify and characterise clusters of islet autoantibody-positive individuals who share similar characteristics and type 1 diabetes risk. METHODS: We tested a novel outcome-guided clustering method in initially non-diabetic autoantibody-positive relatives of individuals with type 1 diabetes, using the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study data (n=1123). The outcome of the analysis was the time to development of type 1 diabetes, and variables in the model included demographic characteristics, genetics, metabolic factors and islet autoantibodies. An independent dataset (the Diabetes Prevention Trial of Type 1 Diabetes Study) (n=706) was used for validation. RESULTS: The analysis revealed six clusters with varying type 1 diabetes risks, categorised into three groups based on the hierarchy of clusters. Group A comprised one cluster with high glucose levels (median for glucose mean AUC 9.48 mmol/l; IQR 9.16-10.02) and high risk (2-year diabetes-free survival probability 0.42; 95% CI 0.34, 0.51). Group B comprised one cluster with high IA-2A titres (median 287 DK units/ml; IQR 250-319) and elevated autoantibody titres (2-year diabetes-free survival probability 0.73; 95% CI 0.67, 0.80). Group C comprised four lower-risk clusters with lower autoantibody titres and glucose levels (with 2-year diabetes-free survival probability ranging from 0.84-0.99 in the four clusters). Within group C, the clusters exhibit variations in characteristics such as glucose levels, C-peptide levels and age. A decision rule for assigning individuals to clusters was developed. Use of the validation dataset confirmed that the clusters can identify individuals with similar characteristics. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Demographic, metabolic, immunological and genetic markers may be used to identify clusters of distinctive characteristics and different risks of progression to type 1 diabetes among autoantibody-positive individuals with a family history of type 1 diabetes. The results also revealed the heterogeneity in the population and complex interactions between variables.

Lower Prevalence of Diabetic Ketoacidosis at Diagnosis in Research Participants Monitored for Hyperglycemia.

CONTEXT: In Colorado children, the prevalence of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) at diagnosis of type 1 diabetes (T1D) has been increasing over time. OBJECTIVE: Evaluate the prevalence of and factors involved in DKA at T1D diagnosis among participants followed in monitoring research studies before diagnosis compared to patients from the community. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Patients < 18 years diagnosed with T1D between 2005 and 2021 at the Barbara Davis Center for Diabetes. OUTCOME: Prevalence of and factors associated with DKA at diagnosis among participants in preclinical monitoring studies compared to those diagnosed in the community. RESULTS: Of 5049 subjects, 164 were active study participants, 42 inactive study participants, and 4843 were community patients. Active study participants, compared to community patients, had lower HbA1c (7.3% vs 11.9%]; P < 0.001) and less frequently experienced DKA (4.9% vs 48.5%; P < 0.001), including severe DKA (1.2% vs 16.2%; P < 0.001). Inactive study participants had intermediate levels for both prevalence and severity of DKA. DKA prevalence increased in community patients, from 44.0% to 55%, with less evidence for a temporal trend in study participants. DKA prevalence was highest in children <2 years (13% in active study participants vs 83% in community patients). In community patients, younger age (P = 0.0038), public insurance (P < 0.0001), rural residence (P < 0.0076), higher HbA1c (P < 0.0001), and ethnicity minority status (P < 0.0001) were associated with DKA at diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: While DKA prevalence increases in community patients over time, it stayed <5% in active research participants, who have a 10 times lower prevalence of DKA at diagnosis, including in minorities.

Longitudinal changes in DNA methylation during the onset of islet autoimmunity differentiate between reversion versus progression of islet autoimmunity.

Background: Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is preceded by a heterogenous pre-clinical phase, islet autoimmunity (IA). We aimed to identify pre vs. post-IA seroconversion (SV) changes in DNAm that differed across three IA progression phenotypes, those who lose autoantibodies (reverters), progress to clinical T1D (progressors), or maintain autoantibody levels (maintainers). Methods: This epigenome-wide association study (EWAS) included longitudinal DNAm measurements in blood (Illumina 450K and EPIC) from participants in Diabetes Autoimmunity Study in the Young (DAISY) who developed IA, one or more islet autoantibodies on at least two consecutive visits. We compared reverters - individuals who sero-reverted, negative for all autoantibodies on at least two consecutive visits and did not develop T1D (n=41); maintainers - continued to test positive for autoantibodies but did not develop T1D (n=60); progressors - developed clinical T1D (n=42). DNAm data were measured before (pre-SV visit) and after IA (post-SV visit). Linear mixed models were used to test for differences in pre- vs post-SV changes in DNAm across the three groups. Linear mixed models were also used to test for group differences in average DNAm. Cell proportions, age, and sex were adjusted for in all models. Median follow-up across all participants was 15.5 yrs. (interquartile range (IQR): 10.8-18.7). Results: The median age at the pre-SV visit was 2.2 yrs. (IQR: 0.8-5.3) in progressors, compared to 6.0 yrs. (IQR: 1.3-8.4) in reverters, and 5.7 yrs. (IQR: 1.4-9.7) in maintainers. Median time between the visits was similar in reverters 1.4 yrs. (IQR: 1-1.9), maintainers 1.3 yrs. (IQR: 1.0-2.0), and progressors 1.8 yrs. (IQR: 1.0-2.0). Changes in DNAm, pre- vs post-SV, differed across the groups at one site (cg16066195) and 11 regions. Average DNAm (mean of pre- and post-SV) differed across 22 regions. Conclusion: Differentially changing DNAm regions were located in genomic areas related to beta cell function, immune cell differentiation, and immune cell function.

The Influence of Pubertal Development on Autoantibody Appearance and Progression to Type 1 Diabetes in the TEDDY Study.

Context: The 2 peaks of type 1 diabetes incidence occur during early childhood and puberty. Objective: We sought to better understand the relationship between puberty, islet autoimmunity, and type 1 diabetes. Methods: The relationships between puberty, islet autoimmunity, and progression to type 1 diabetes were investigated prospectively in children followed in The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) study. Onset of puberty was determined by subject self-assessment of Tanner stages. Associations between speed of pubertal progression, pubertal growth, weight gain, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), islet autoimmunity, and progression to type 1 diabetes were assessed. The influence of individual factors was analyzed using Cox proportional hazard ratios. Results: Out of 5677 children who were still in the study at age 8 years, 95% reported at least 1 Tanner Stage score and were included in the study. Children at puberty (Tanner Stage ≥2) had a lower risk (HR 0.65, 95% CI 0.45-0.93; P = .019) for incident autoimmunity than prepubertal children (Tanner Stage 1). An increase of body mass index Z-score was associated with a higher risk (HR 2.88, 95% CI 1.61-5.15; P < .001) of incident insulin autoantibodies. In children with multiple autoantibodies, neither HOMA-IR nor rate of progression to Tanner Stage 4 were associated with progression to type 1 diabetes. Conclusion: Rapid weight gain during puberty is associated with development of islet autoimmunity. Puberty itself had no significant influence on the appearance of autoantibodies or type 1 diabetes. Further studies are needed to better understand the underlying mechanisms.

Genetic Associations with C-peptide Levels before Type 1 Diabetes Diagnosis in At-Risk Relatives.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine whether the type 1 diabetes genetic risk score-2 (T1D-GRS2) and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are associated with C-peptide preservation before type 1 diabetes diagnosis. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 713 autoantibody-positive participants who developed type 1 diabetes in the TrialNet Pathway to Prevention Study who had T1DExomeChip data. We evaluated the relationships of 16 known SNPs and T1D-GRS2 with area under the curve (AUC) C-peptide levels during oral glucose tolerance tests conducted in the 9 months before diagnosis. RESULTS: Higher T1D-GRS2 was associated with lower C-peptide AUC in the 9 months before diagnosis in univariate (ß=-0.06, P<0.0001) and multivariate (ß=-0.03, P=0.005) analyses. Participants with the JAZF1 rs864745 T allele had lower C-peptide AUC in both univariate (ß=-0.11, P=0.002) and multivariate (ß=-0.06, P=0.018) analyses. CONCLUSIONS: The type 2 diabetes-associated JAZF1 rs864745 T allele and higher T1D-GRS2 are associated with lower C-peptide AUC prior to diagnosis of type 1 diabetes, with implications for the design of prevention trials.

Longitudinal Assessment of Pancreas Volume by MRI Predicts Progression to Stage 3 Type 1 Diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: This multicenter prospective cohort study compared pancreas volume as assessed by MRI, metabolic scores derived from oral glucose tolerance testing (OGTT), and a combination of pancreas volume and metabolic scores for predicting progression to stage 3 type 1 diabetes (T1D) in individuals with multiple diabetes-related autoantibodies. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Pancreas MRI was performed in 65 multiple autoantibody-positive participants enrolled in the Type 1 Diabetes TrialNet Pathway to Prevention study. Prediction of progression to stage 3 T1D was assessed using pancreas volume index (PVI), OGTT-derived Index60 score and Diabetes Prevention Trial-Type 1 Risk Score (DPTRS), and a combination of PVI and DPTRS. RESULTS: PVI, Index60, and DPTRS were all significantly different at study entry in 11 individuals who subsequently experienced progression to stage 3 T1D compared with 54 participants who did not experience progression (P < 0.005). PVI did not correlate with metabolic testing across individual study participants. PVI declined longitudinally in the 11 individuals diagnosed with stage 3 T1D, whereas Index60 and DPTRS increased. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting progression to stage 3 from measurements at study entry was 0.76 for PVI, 0.79 for Index60, 0.79 for DPTRS, and 0.91 for PVI plus DPTRS. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that measures of pancreas volume and metabolism reflect distinct components of risk for developing stage 3 type 1 diabetes and that a combination of these measures may provide superior prediction than either alone.