Efficient study design to estimate population means with multiple measurement instruments.

Outcomes from studies assessing exposure often use multiple measurements. In previous work, using a model first proposed by Buonoccorsi (1991), we showed that combining direct (eg, biomarkers) and indirect (eg, self-report) measurements provides a more accurate picture of true exposure than estimates obtained when using a single type of measurement. In this article, we propose a tool for efficient design of studies that include both direct and indirect measurements of a relevant outcome. Based on data from a pilot or preliminary study, the tool, which is available online as a shiny app at https://michalbitan.shinyapps.io/shinyApp/, can be used to compute: (1) the sample size required for a statistical power analysis, while optimizing the percent of participants who should provide direct measures of exposure (biomarkers) in addition to the indirect (self-report) measures provided by all participants; (2) the ideal number of replicates; and (3) the allocation of resources to intervention and control arms. In addition we show how to examine the sensitivity of results to underlying assumptions. We illustrate our analysis using studies of tobacco smoke exposure and nutrition. In these examples, a near-optimal allocation of the resources can be found even if the assumptions are not precise.

An impact of lipid profile and lipid lowering drugs on ≥70 year olds of an upper socioeconomic class: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Life expectancy has greatly increased, generating an improvement in screening programs for disease prevention, lifesaving drugs and medical devices. The impact of lowering low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) in the very elderly is not well-established. Our aim was to explore the association of LDL-C, high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and lipid lowering drugs (LLDs) on cognitive decline, malignancies and overall survival. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study. Our study comprised 1498 (72.7%) males and 561 (27.3%) females, aged ≥70 who had attended the Institute for Medical Screening (IMS), Sheba Medical Center, Israel at least twice during 2013-2019. Data were obtained from the computerized database of the IMS. A manual quality control to identify potential discrepancies was performed. RESULTS: Overall, 6.3% of the subjects treated with LLDs (95/1421) versus 4.2% not treated (28/638), cognitively declined during the study years. No statistically significant effects of LDL-C, HDL-C and LLDs on cognitive decline were observed after correcting for age, prior stroke and other vascular risk factors. With regard to cancer, after adjusting for confounders and multiple inferences, no definite relationships were found. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis of an elderly, high socioeconomic status cohort suggests several relationships between the use of LLDs and health outcomes, some beneficial, especially, with regard to certain types of cancer, but with a higher risk of cognitive decline. Further studies are warranted to clarify the health effects of these medications in the elderly.

Association Between BNT162b2 Vaccination and Incidence of SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Pregnant Women.

Importance: Data on BNT162b2 messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech) effectiveness and safety in pregnancy are currently lacking because pregnant women were excluded from the phase 3 trial. Objective: To assess the association between receipt of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine and risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection among pregnant women. Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a retrospective cohort study within the pregnancy registry of a large state-mandated health care organization in Israel. Pregnant women vaccinated with a first dose from December 19, 2020, through February 28, 2021, were 1:1 matched to unvaccinated women by age, gestational age, residential area, population subgroup, parity, and influenza immunization status. Follow-up ended on April 11, 2021. Exposures: Exposure was defined by receipt of the BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine. To maintain comparability, nonexposed women who were subsequently vaccinated were censored 10 days after their exposure, along with their matched pair. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was polymerase chain reaction-validated SARS-CoV-2 infection at 28 days or more after the first vaccine dose. Results: The cohort included 7530 vaccinated and 7530 matched unvaccinated women, 46% and 33% in the second and third trimester, respectively, with a mean age of 31.1 years (SD, 4.9 years). The median follow-up for the primary outcome was 37 days (interquartile range, 21-54 days; range, 0-70). There were 118 SARS-CoV-2 infections in the vaccinated group and 202 in the unvaccinated group. Among infected women, 88 of 105 (83.8%) were symptomatic in the vaccinated group vs 149 of 179 (83.2%) in the unvaccinated group (P ≥ .99). During 28 to 70 days of follow-up, there were 10 infections in the vaccinated group and 46 in the unvaccinated group. The hazards of infection were 0.33% vs 1.64% in the vaccinated and unvaccinated groups, respectively, representing an absolute difference of 1.31% (95% CI, 0.89%-1.74%), with an adjusted hazard ratio of 0.22 (95% CI, 0.11-0.43). Vaccine-related adverse events were reported by 68 patients; none was severe. The most commonly reported symptoms were headache (n = 10, 0.1%), general weakness (n = 8, 0.1%), nonspecified pain (n = 6, <0.1%), and stomachache (n = 5, <0.1%). Conclusions and Relevance: In this retrospective cohort study of pregnant women, BNT162b2 mRNA vaccination compared with no vaccination was associated with a significantly lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Interpretation of study findings is limited by the observational design.

Estimating the intervention effect in calibration substudies.

Exposure assessment is often subject to measurement errors. We consider here the analysis of studies aimed at reducing exposure to potential health hazards, in which exposure is the outcome variable. In these studies, the intervention effect may be estimated using either biomarkers or self-report data, but it is not common to combine these measures of exposure. Bias in the self-reported measures of exposure is a well-known fact; however, only few studies attempt to correct it. Recently, Keogh et al addressed this problem, presenting a model for measurement error in this setting and investigating how self-report and biomarker data can be combined. Keogh et al find the maximum likelihood estimate for the intervention effect in their model via direct numerical maximization of the likelihood. Here, we exploit an alternative presentation of the model that leads us to a closed formula for the MLE and also for its variance, when the number of biomarker replicates is the same for all subjects in the substudy. The variance formula enables efficient design of such intervention studies. When the number of biomarker replicates is not constant, our approach can be used along with the EM-algorithm to quickly compute the MLE. We compare the MLE to Buonaccorsi's method (Buonaccorsi, 1996) and find that they have similar efficiency when most subjects have biomarker data, but that the MLE has clear advantages when only a small fraction of subjects has biomarker data. This conclusion extends the findings of Keogh et al (2016) and has practical importance for efficiently designing studies.

The effect of civil and military flights on coagulation, fibrinolysis and blood flow: insight from a rat model.

BACKGROUND: Air travel thrombosis continues to be a controversial topic. Exposure to hypoxia and hypobaric conditions during air travel is assumed a risk factor. The aim of this study is to explore changes in parameters of coagulation, fibrinolysis and blood flow in a rat model of exposure to hypobaric conditions that imitate commercial and combat flights. METHODS: Sixty Sprague-Dawley male rats, aged 10 weeks, were divided into 5 groups according to the type and duration of exposure to hypobaric conditions. The exposure conditions were 609 m and 7620 m for 2 and 12 h duration. Blood count, thrombin- antithrombin complex, D-dimer, interleukin-1 and interleukin-6 were analyzed. All rats went through flight angiography MRI at day 13-post exposure. RESULTS: No effect of the various exposure conditions was observed on coagulation, fibrinolytic system, IL-1 or IL-6. MRI angiography showed blood flow reduction in lower limb to less than 30% in 50% of the rats. The reduction in blood flow was more pronounced in the left vessel than in the right vessel (p = 0.006, Wilcoxon signed rank test). The extent of occlusion differed across exposure groups in the right, but not the left vessel (p = 0.002, p = 0.150, respectively, Kruskal-Wallis test). However, these differences did not correlate with the exposure conditions. CONCLUSION: In the present rat model, no clear correlation between various hypobaric conditions and activation of coagulation was observed. The reduction in blood flow in the lower limb also occurred in the control group and was not related to the type of exposure.

Cancer and mortality in relation to traffic-related air pollution among coronary patients: Using an ensemble of exposure estimates to identify high-risk individuals.

BACKGROUND: Moderate correlations were previously observed between individual estimates of traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) produced by different exposure modeling approaches. This induces exposure misclassification for a substantial fraction of subjects. AIM: We used an ensemble of well-established modeling approaches to increase certainty of exposure classification and reevaluated the association with cancers previously linked to TRAP (lung, breast and prostate), other cancers, and all-cause mortality in a cohort of coronary patients. METHODS: Patients undergoing percutaneous coronary interventions in a major Israeli medical center from 2004 to 2014 (n = 10,627) were followed for cancer (through 2015) and mortality (through 2017) via national registries. Residential exposure to nitrogen oxides (NOx) -a proxy for TRAP- was estimated by optimized dispersion model (ODM) and land use regression (LUR) (rPearson = 0.50). Mutually exclusive groups of subjects classified as exposed by none of the methods (high-certainty low-exposed), ODM alone, LUR alone, or both methods (high-certainty high-exposed) were created. Associations were examined using Cox regression models. RESULTS: During follow-up, 741 incident cancer cases were diagnosed and 3051 deaths occurred. Using a ≥25 ppb cutoff, compared with high-certainty low exposed, the multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for lung, breast and prostate cancer were 1.56 (1.13-2.15) in high-certainty exposed, 1.27 (0.86-1.86) in LUR-exposed alone, and 1.13 (0.77-1.65) in ODM-exposed alone. The association of the former category was strengthened using more extreme NOx cutoffs. A similar pattern, albeit less strong, was observed for mortality, whereas no association was shown for cancers not previously linked to TRAP. CONCLUSIONS: Use of an ensemble of TRAP exposure estimates may improve classification, resulting in a stronger association with outcomes.

Are transient and shear wave elastography useful tools in Gaucher disease?

Up to now, there are no reliable biochemical markers or imaging that could reveal early tissue damage in Gaucher disease. Therefore, we addressed whether elastography technique can serve as a tool for evaluating patients with Gaucher disease. The study included 42 patients with Gaucher disease type I and 33 patients with liver cirrhosis as well as 22 healthy volunteers. Ultrasound and Doppler examination was performed on each participant prior to apply transient and 2D shear wave elastography. In Gaucher disease the median stiffness of the spleen as assessed by transient elastography (TE) and shear wave elastography (SWE) was 35KPa and 22KPa respectively in contrast to the median stiffness of healthy controls (16.95 and 17.5KPa, p=0.0028 and p=0.0002, respectively) and of patients with cirrhosis (45KPa and 34.5KPa, p=0.015 and p<0.0001 respectively). The liver stiffness in GD as measured by TE and SWE had median values of 7.1KPa and 7KPa respectively, slightly higher than in the healthy controls, but much smaller than for the cirrhotic patients (medians of 24.2KPa and 21KPa). In conclusion, a transient and shear wave elastography show a significant promise as noninvasive and reproducible tools to differentiate Gaucher disease from healthy controls and among those with splenomegaly from cirrhotic patients.

Drugs that reverse disease transcriptomic signatures are more effective in a mouse model of dyslipidemia.

High-throughput omics have proven invaluable in studying human disease, and yet day-to-day clinical practice still relies on physiological, non-omic markers. The metabolic syndrome, for example, is diagnosed and monitored by blood and urine indices such as blood cholesterol levels. Nevertheless, the association between the molecular and the physiological manifestations of the disease, especially in response to treatment, has not been investigated in a systematic manner. To this end, we studied a mouse model of diet-induced dyslipidemia and atherosclerosis that was subject to various drug treatments relevant to the disease in question. Both physiological data and gene expression data (from the liver and white adipose) were analyzed and compared. We find that treatments that restore gene expression patterns to their norm are associated with the successful restoration of physiological markers to their baselines. This holds in a tissue-specific manner­treatments that reverse the transcriptomic signatures of the disease in a particular tissue are associated with positive physiological effects in that tissue. Further, treatments that introduce large non-restorative gene expression alterations are associated with unfavorable physiological outcomes. These results provide a sound basis to in silico methods that rely on omic metrics for drug repurposing and drug discovery by searching for compounds that reverse a disease's omic signatures. Moreover, they highlight the need to develop drugs that restore the global cellular state to its healthy norm rather than rectify particular disease phenotypes.

Calreticulin mutation burden--is it a stable clone in patients with essential thrombocythemia and myelofibrosis?

Calreticulin mutation represents the second most frequent mutation after JAK2 V617F in myeloproliferative disorder and is considered to be a driving mutation. Herein the mutation burden was evaluated in patients with essential thrombocythemia or myelofibrosis and found to increase by 5.7% over time unrelated to the time elapsed from the initial to the final positive test. The longer the course of the disease when first tested (range 0-30 years, mean 7.9 years) the lower mutation burden was observed. The mutated clone was larger in type II in comparison with type I mutation when first tested but the difference in mutation burden from the final to the first positive test was significantly higher in those with type I. Similarly, the difference in mutation burden was higher in patients with essential thrombocythemia reaching almost 8% in comparison to 1.3% in post-essential thrombocythemia myelofibrosis. Thus a repeat calreticulin quantitative test is not warranted.

Maintenance Therapy With Tumor-Treating Fields Plus Temozolomide vs Temozolomide Alone for Glioblastoma: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

IMPORTANCE: Glioblastoma is the most devastating primary malignancy of the central nervous system in adults. Most patients die within 1 to 2 years of diagnosis. Tumor-treating fields (TTFields) are a locoregionally delivered antimitotic treatment that interferes with cell division and organelle assembly. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of TTFields used in combination with temozolomide maintenance treatment after chemoradiation therapy for patients with glioblastoma. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: After completion of chemoradiotherapy, patients with glioblastoma were randomized (2:1) to receive maintenance treatment with either TTFields plus temozolomide (n = 466) or temozolomide alone (n = 229) (median time from diagnosis to randomization, 3.8 months in both groups). The study enrolled 695 of the planned 700 patients between July 2009 and November 2014 at 83 centers in the United States, Canada, Europe, Israel, and South Korea. The trial was terminated based on the results of this planned interim analysis. INTERVENTIONS: Treatment with TTFields was delivered continuously (>18 hours/day) via 4 transducer arrays placed on the shaved scalp and connected to a portable medical device. Temozolomide (150-200 mg/m2/d) was given for 5 days of each 28-day cycle. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary end point was progression-free survival in the intent-to-treat population (significance threshold of .01) with overall survival in the per-protocol population (n = 280) as a powered secondary end point (significance threshold of .006). This prespecified interim analysis was to be conducted on the first 315 patients after at least 18 months of follow-up. RESULTS: The interim analysis included 210 patients randomized to TTFields plus temozolomide and 105 randomized to temozolomide alone, and was conducted at a median follow-up of 38 months (range, 18-60 months). Median progression-free survival in the intent-to-treat population was 7.1 months (95% CI, 5.9-8.2 months) in the TTFields plus temozolomide group and 4.0 months (95% CI, 3.3-5.2 months) in the temozolomide alone group (hazard ratio [HR], 0.62 [98.7% CI, 0.43-0.89]; P = .001). Median overall survival in the per-protocol population was 20.5 months (95% CI, 16.7-25.0 months) in the TTFields plus temozolomide group (n = 196) and 15.6 months (95% CI, 13.3-19.1 months) in the temozolomide alone group (n = 84) (HR, 0.64 [99.4% CI, 0.42-0.98]; P = .004). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this interim analysis of 315 patients with glioblastoma who had completed standard chemoradiation therapy, adding TTFields to maintenance temozolomide chemotherapy significantly prolonged progression-free and overall survival. TRIAL REGISTRATION: clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00916409.

Sinus vein thrombosis conundrum: Persistent empty sella vs. flexible optic nerve sheath.

INTRODUCTION: Our objective was to investigate the potential effect of thrombotic burden on pituitary gland height, bony sella and optic sheath width, taking into consideration the various venous sites and dominant drainage pattern. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This retrospective cohort study followed patients diagnosed with cerebral sinus vein thrombosis in a single primary healthcare center between the years 2000 and 2022. Data was collected from both CT/V and MR/V scans available on the local PACS system. Dural sinuses were divided into main anatomical sites and scored for patent, partially or totally blocked lumen. Dominant drainage flow was noted for each patient. For most scans, pituitary mid height, maximal depth and AP width of the bony sella and dorsum sella to tuberculum sella distance were assessed. Optic sheath width was measured for both sides at the maximal retrobulbar diameter. Regression methods, including linear mixed models, and non-parametric tests were used to analyze the data. RESULTS: 90 patients (mean age, 44 years ±16.8, 54 women) were evaluated. Overall thrombus burden did not correlate with pituitary mid-height, however a relationship was observed between the change (from presentation) in the superficial thrombus score and the average width of the optic nerve sheath; the width of the optic sheath tended to decrease as thrombus burden improved and vice versa (p = 0.010). CONCLUSIONS: Thrombus recanalization had a favorable effect on the optic nerve sheath diameter but did not appear to reverse the flattening of the pituitary gland, regardless of temporal improvement.

Greenness Exposure and Mortality Risk in a Cardio-Oncologic Population.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Knowledge is lacking on the relationship between greenness and mortality in cancer survivors who experience coronary artery disease (CAD), a cardio-oncologic population. We aimed to investigate the association between residential greenness exposure and all-cause mortality in a cardio-oncologic population. METHODS: Cancer survivors undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention at the Rabin Medical Center in Israel between 2004 and 2014 were included in the study. Clinical data were collected from medical records during index hospitalization and from the Israeli National Cancer Registry. Residential greenness was estimated by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), a satellite-based index derived from Landsat imagery at a 30-meter spatial resolution, with larger values indicating higher levels of vegetative density (ranging between -1 to 1). Mortality follow-up data were obtained through the end of 2021. Cox models were used to assess the hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality per 1SD increase in NDVI. RESULTS: Among 1,331 patients analyzed [mean (SD) age, 75.6 (10.2) years, 373 (28%) females], the mean (SD) NDVI within a 300-meter radius was 0.12 (0.03). During a median follow-up period of 12.0 (IQR 9.2-14.7) years, 883 (66%) participants died. After adjustment for potential confounding factors, including residential socioeconomic status, air pollution, and smoking, NDVI was inversely associated with mortality hazard [HR (95% CI) = 0.93 (0.86, 0.99); p=.042]. The association was stronger among individuals with more recently (<10 years) diagnosed cancer [HR (95% CI) = 0.89 (0.81, 0.98); p=.019]. CONCLUSION: In a cohort of cardio-oncologic patients, greenness was independently associated with lower mortality.

Compound heterozygosity of HLA-DRB3*01:01 and HLA-DRB4*01:01 as a potential predictor of fetal neonatal alloimmune thrombocytopenia.

BACKGROUND: Fetal neonatal alloimmune thrombocytopenia (FNAIT) is a life-threatening bleeding disorder in the fetus or neonate caused by maternal alloantibodies directed against fetal platelet (PLT) antigens inherited from the father. The immune-dominant antigen leading to severe FNAIT is the human PLT antigen (HPA)-1, whose polymorphism constitutes an epitope for human leukocyte antigens (HLAs), usually DRB3*0101 leading to an immune response. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: In this study our aims were to find whether other allele variants of the ß subunit of the HLA-DR family specifically focused on the HLA residues that bind Position 33 of the HPA-1 integrin contribute to FNAIT development and affect response to treatment and whether coexistence of both anti-HPA-1a and anti-HLA class I specific against the father's antigens leads to a more severe thrombocytopenia in the newborn. We examine the genotype of 23 mothers to newborns with FNAIT compared to a control group. RESULTS: Our results suggested that, when HPA-1 incompatibility with the husband is found, the presence of two HLA alleles (DRB3*01:01 and DRB4*01:01) in the mother increases the risk and severity of FNAIT and reduces the success of a preventive immunoglobulin G treatment. We provide a structural model for the molecular basis of the rational effects of the different HLA alleles. In addition, we found that the presence of both anti-HPA-1 and anti-HLAs did not aggravate FNAIT in comparison to mothers harboring only anti-HPA-1. CONCLUSION: Overall, we suggest that a specific genotyping of the mother in relation to HLA-DRB as well as HPA-1 can serve as an antenatal diagnostic tool, particularly in siblings of women who gave birth to neonates with FNAIT.

Cumulative exposure to particulate matter air pollution and long-term post-myocardial infarction outcomes.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic environmental exposure to particulate matter <2.5µm in diameter (PM2.5) has been associated with cardiovascular disease; however, the effect of air pollution on myocardial infarction (MI) survivors is not clear. We studied the association of chronic exposure to PM2.5 with death and recurrent cardiovascular events in MI survivors. METHODS: Consecutive patients aged ≤65years admitted to all medical centers in central Israel after first-MI in 1992-1993 were followed through 2005 for cardiovascular events and 2011 for survival. Data on sociodemographic and prognostic factors were collected at baseline and during follow-up. Residential exposure to PM2.5 was estimated for each patient based on data recorded at air quality monitoring stations. Cox and Andersen-Gill proportional hazards models were used to study the pollution-outcome association. RESULTS: Among the 1120 patients, 469 (41.9%) died and 541 (48.3%) experienced one or more recurrent cardiovascular event. The adjusted hazard ratios associated with a 10µg/m(3) increase in PM2.5 exposure were 1.3 (95% CI 0.8-2.1) for death and 1.5 (95% CI 1.1-1.9) for multiple recurrences of cardiovascular events (MI, heart failure and stroke). CONCLUSION: When adjustment for socio-demographic factors is performed, cumulative chronic exposure to PM2.5 is positively associated with recurrence of cardiovascular events in patients after a first MI.

Cancer Incidence and Survival Among Patients Following an Acute Coronary Syndrome.

To examine the role of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in subsequent cancer incidence and survival, 2 cohorts of patients hospitalized with ACS were matched 1:1 by gender and age (±3 years) to cardiovascular disease (CVD)-free patients from 2 cycles of the Israeli National Health and Nutrition Surveys. Data on all-cause mortality were retrieved from national registries. Cancer incidence with death treated as a competing event, overall survival, and mortality risk associated with incident cancer as a time-dependent variable were compared between the groups. Our cohort included 2,040 cancer-free matched pairs (mean age of 60±14 years, 42.5% women). Despite higher rates of smokers and patients with hypertension and diabetes mellitus, 10-year cumulative cancer incidence was significantly lower in the ACS group compared with CVD-free group (8.0% vs 11.4%, p = 0.02). This decreased risk was more pronounced in women than men (pinteraction = 0.05). Although being free of CVD meant a significant (p <0.001) survival advantage in the general cohort, this advantage faded once a cancer diagnosis was made (p = 0.80). After adjustment for sociodemographic and clinical covariates, the hazard ratios for mortality associated with a cancer diagnosis were 2.96 (95% confidence interval: 2.36 to 3.71) in the ACS group versus 6.41 (95% confidence interval: 4.96 to 8.28) in the CVD-free group (Pinteraction<0.001). In conclusion, in this matched cohort, ACS was associated with a lower risk of cancer and mitigated the excess risk of mortality associated with cancer incidence.

Ethnic differences in patterns of secondhand smoke exposure among adolescents in Israel.

INTRODUCTION: Adolescent secondhand smoke exposure (SHSe) is associated with smoking initiation and independently damages health. METHODS: We used data from the school-based 2003-2004 Israel National Health and Nutrition Youth survey (MABAT) to examine patterns and determinants of SHSe in a multiethnic sample of Israeli adolescents. School and child response rates were high (school: 91.8%, child: 87.9%), with 6,274 participants. We used generalized estimating equations to examine SHSe determinants. RESULTS: Most Israeli adolescents were exposed to SHS (total: 85.6%; home: 40%; school: 31.4%; entertainment: 73.3%; other: 16.3%). Exposure patterns differed between the Jewish and non-Jewish sectors. Jews were more frequently exposed at school and entertainment venues than were non-Jews but were less frequently exposed at home. Druze were the least exposed and non-Arab Christians the most exposed. Secular Jews were more exposed than were religious Jews; the opposite was true among Arabs. Children of less-educated fathers were exposed more than children of more-educated fathers. Adolescents who smoked were more exposed than were nonsmokers. CONCLUSIONS: The high levels of SHSe among Israeli adolescents were characterized by different patterns of exposure among different population groups. Interventions to reduce adolescent SHSe, with appropriate tailoring, are urgently needed. These findings provide support for sustainable implementation of the recent governmentally approved tobacco control plan, which includes extended legislation for, and increased enforcement of, laws about smoking bans in schools and entertainment venues. Researchers elsewhere should be aware that levels and patterns of SHSe may vary greatly by subpopulation.

Statistical Emulation of Neural Simulators: Application to Neocortical L2/3 Large Basket Cells.

Many scientific systems are studied using computer codes that simulate the phenomena of interest. Computer simulation enables scientists to study a broad range of possible conditions, generating large quantities of data at a faster rate than the laboratory. Computer models are widespread in neuroscience, where they are used to mimic brain function at different levels. These models offer a variety of new possibilities for the neuroscientist, but also numerous challenges, such as: where to sample the input space for the simulator, how to make sense of the data that is generated, and how to estimate unknown parameters in the model. Statistical emulation can be a valuable complement to simulator-based research. Emulators are able to mimic the simulator, often with a much smaller computational burden and they are especially valuable for parameter estimation, which may require many simulator evaluations. This work compares different statistical models that address these challenges, and applies them to simulations of neocortical L2/3 large basket cells, created and run with the NEURON simulator in the context of the European Human Brain Project. The novelty of our approach is the use of fast empirical emulators, which have the ability to accelerate the optimization process for the simulator and to identify which inputs (in this case, different membrane ion channels) are most influential in affecting simulated features. These contributions are complementary, as knowledge of the important features can further improve the optimization process. Subsequent research, conducted after the process is completed, will gain efficiency by focusing on these inputs.

Excess mortality in Israel associated with COVID-19 in 2020-2021 by age group and with estimates based on daily mortality patterns in 2000-2019.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to build a basic daily mortality curve in Israel based on 20-year data accounting for long-term and annual trends, influenza-like illness (ILI) and climate factors among others, and to use the basic curve to estimate excess mortality during 65 weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021 stratified by age groups. METHODS: Using daily mortality counts for the period 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2019, weekly ILI counts, daily climate and yearly population sizes, we fitted a quasi-Poisson model that included other temporal covariates (a smooth yearly trend, season, day of week) to define a basic mortality curve. Excess mortality was calculated as the difference between the observed and expected deaths on a weekly and periodic level. Analyses were stratified by age group. RESULTS: Between 23 March 2020 and 28 March 2021, a total of 51 361 deaths were reported in Israel, which was 12% higher than the expected number for the same period (expected 45 756 deaths; 95% prediction interval, 45 325-46 188; excess deaths, 5605). In the same period, the number of COVID-19 deaths was 6135 (12% of all observed deaths), 9.5% larger than the estimated excess mortality. Stratification by age group yielded a heterogeneous age-dependent pattern. Whereas in ages 90+ years (11% excess), 100% of excess mortality was attributed to COVID-19, in ages 70-79 years there was a greater excess (21%) with only 82% attributed to COVID-19. In ages 60-69 and 20-59 years, excess mortality was 14% and 10%, respectively, and the number of COVID-19 deaths was higher than the excess mortality. In ages 0-19 years, we found 19% fewer deaths than expected. CONCLUSION: The findings of an age-dependent pattern of excess mortality may be related to indirect pathways in mortality risk, specifically in ages <80 years, and to the implementation of the lockdown policies, specifically in ages 0-19 years with lower deaths than expected.

JAK2V617F Is a Risk Factor for TIA/Stroke in Young Patients.

The objective of this study was to assess the risk of arterial thrombosis in patients who harbor the JAK2V617F allele burden ≥1% detected during workup for myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs). We conducted a large cross-sectional analysis consisted of 5,220 patients who were tested for JAK2V617F and 1,047,258 people matched in age from health care insurance provider, taking into account age, sex, hypertension, diabetes, atrial fibrillation. Compared with noncarriers, mutation carriers were older, less likely to be current or past smokers and had lower body mass index. There was no significant difference between the groups regarding myocardial infarction and peripheral vascular disease. However, JAK2V617F ≥1% at age 34 to 54 years was associated with eightfold more likely to have transient ischemic attack (TIA)/stroke history unrelated to hypertension, diabetes, or atrial fibrillation. Association of JAK2V617F with TIA/stroke was also observed in the older age group, albeit a weaker association and not statistically significant. Prevalence of TIA/stroke was higher in patients with JAK2V617F negative, with odds ratio of 3.93 when compared with the general population after confounder adjustments. Further research is warranted to verify the relation between allele burden of JAK2V617F mutation and TIA/stroke and the role of JAK2V617F per se as a risk factor for arterial thrombosis in the absence of overt MPN. Also, consideration should be paid to the screened group with JAK2V617F negative due to the high incidence of TIA/stroke among them in comparison to the general population.

Association between objective measures and parent-reported measures of child tobacco smoke exposure: A secondary data analysis of four trials.

INTRODUCTION: Tobacco smoke exposure (TSE) harms children and adults. Studies of childhood TSE exposure often relies on parental reports, but may benefit from objective measures. The objective of our study was to study the relationship between reported and objective measures of TSE. METHODS: We analyzed data from four intervention trials, conducted in clinical or community settings, to identify objective measures most closely associated with parent-reported measures and the optimal set of parent-reported measures for predicting objective measures. We also assessed whether there was a learning curve in reported exposure over time, and the importance of replicate biomarker measures. RESULTS: Correlations between objective and parent-reported measures of child TSE were modest at best, ranging from zero to 0.41. Serum cotinine and urinary cotinine were most strongly associated with parental reports. Parental questions most closely related to biomarkers were number of cigarettes and home smoking rules; together these formed the best set of predictive questions. No trial included all objective measures and all questions, precluding definitive statements about relative advantages. Within-subject repeatability of biomarker measures varied across studies, suggesting that direct pilot data are needed to assess the benefit of replicate measurements. CONCLUSIONS: Improvements in objective and parent-reported child exposure measurements are needed to accurately monitor child TSE, evaluate efforts to reduce such exposure, and better protect child health.