Assessment of the causal relevance of ECG parameters for risk of atrial fibrillation: A mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: Atrial electrical and structural remodelling in older individuals with cardiovascular risk factors has been associated with changes in surface electrocardiographic (ECG) parameters (e.g., prolongation of the PR interval) and higher risks of atrial fibrillation (AF). However, it has been difficult to establish whether altered ECG parameters are the cause or a consequence of the myocardial substrate leading to AF. This study aimed to examine the potential causal relevance of ECG parameters on risk of AF using mendelian randomisation (MR). METHODS AND FINDINGS: Weighted genetic scores explaining lifelong differences in P-wave duration, PR interval, and QT interval were constructed, and associations between these ECG scores and risk of AF were estimated among 278,792 UK Biobank participants (mean age: 57 years at recruitment; 19,132 AF cases). The independent genetic variants contributing to each of the separate ECG scores, and their corresponding weights, were based on published genome-wide association studies. In UK Biobank, genetic scores representing a 5 ms longer P-wave duration or PR interval were significantly associated with lower risks of AF (odds ratio [OR] 0.91; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.87-0.96, P = 2 × 10-4 and OR 0.94; 95% CI: 0.93-0.96, P = 2 × 10-19, respectively), while longer QT interval was not significantly associated with AF. These effects were independently replicated among a further 17,931 AF cases from the AFGen Consortium. Investigation of potential mechanistic pathways showed that differences in ECG parameters associated with specific ion channel genes had effects on risk of AF consistent with the overall scores, while the overall scores were not associated with changes in left atrial size. Limitations of the study included the inherent assumptions of MR, restriction to individuals of European ancestry, and possible restriction of results to the normal ECG ranges represented in UK Biobank. CONCLUSIONS: In UK Biobank, we observed evidence suggesting a causal relationship between lifelong differences in ECG parameters (particularly PR interval) that reflect longer atrial conduction times and a lower risk of AF. These findings, which appear to be independent of atrial size and concomitant cardiovascular comorbidity, support the relevance of varying mechanisms underpinning AF and indicate that more individualised treatment strategies warrant consideration.

Association of maternal smoking with child cotinine levels.

INTRODUCTION: Our aim was to understand the strength of association between parental smoking and child environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) exposure in order to inform the development of future tobacco control policies. ETS was measured using child cotinine levels below the active smoking threshold. METHODS: Participants were drawn from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children and included 3,128 participants at age 7 years and 1,868 participants at age 15 years. The primary outcome was cotinine levels of nonsmoking children, to investigate the relationship between maternal smoking and child cotinine levels. The secondary outcome was cotinine levels of all individuals to investigate the relationship between child smoking and child cotinine levels. Maternal and child smoking behavior was assessed by self-report questionnaire. We adjusted for several sociodemographic variables. RESULTS: We found an association between maternal smoking and child cotinine at age 7 years (mean cotinine = 1.16ng/ml serum, ratio of geometric means = 3.94, 95% CI = 2.86-5.42) and at age 15 years (mean cotinine = 0.94ng/ml serum, ratio of geometric means = 5.26, 95% CI = 3.06-9.03), after adjustment for potential confounders. CONCLUSIONS: The magnitude of this association for children whose mothers were heavy smokers was comparable with the quantity of half the levels of cotinine observed among children who were irregular (i.e., nonweekly) active smokers, and it was greater than five times higher than that seen in nonsmoking children whose mothers didn't smoke. This provides further evidence for the importance of public health interventions to reduce smoking exposure in the home.

Are polygenic risk scores for systolic blood pressure and LDL-cholesterol associated with treatment effectiveness, and clinical outcomes among those on treatment?

AIMS: Many studies have investigated associations between polygenic risk scores (PRS) and the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD); few have examined whether risk factor-related PRS predict CVD outcomes among adults treated with risk-modifying therapies. We assessed whether PRS for systolic blood pressure (PRSSBP) and for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (PRSLDL-C) were associated with achieving SBP and LDL-C-related targets, and with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE: non-fatal stroke or myocardial infarction, CVD death, and revascularization procedures). METHODS AND RESULTS: Using observational data from the UK Biobank (UKB), we calculated PRSSBP and PRSLDL-C and constructed two sub-cohorts of unrelated adults of White British ancestry aged 40-69 years and with no history of CVD, who reported taking medications used in the treatment of hypertension or hypercholesterolaemia. Treatment effectiveness in achieving adequate risk factor control was ascertained using on-treatment blood pressure (BP) or LDL-C levels measured at enrolment (uncontrolled hypertension: BP ≥ 140/90 mmHg; uncontrolled hypercholesterolaemia: LDL-C ≥ 3 mmol/L). We conducted multivariable logistic and Cox regression modelling for incident events, adjusting for socioeconomic characteristics, and CVD risk factors. There were 55 439 participants using BP lowering therapies (51.0% male, mean age 61.0 years, median follow-up 11.5 years) and 33 787 using LDL-C lowering therapies (58.5% male, mean age 61.7 years, median follow-up 11.4 years). PRSSBP was associated with uncontrolled hypertension (odds ratio 1.70; 95% confidence interval: 1.60-1.80) top vs. bottom quintile, equivalent to a 5.4 mmHg difference in SBP, and with MACE [hazard ratio (HR) 1.13; 1.04-1.23]. PRSLDL-C was associated with uncontrolled hypercholesterolaemia (HR 2.78; 2.58-3.00) but was not associated with subsequent MACE. CONCLUSION: We extend previous findings in the UKB cohort to examine PRSSBP and PRSLDL-C with treatment effectiveness. Our results indicate that both PRSSBP and PRSLDL-C can help identify individuals who, despite being on treatment, have inadequately controlled SBP and LDL-C, and for SBP are at higher risk for CVD events. This extends the potential role of PRS in clinical practice from identifying patients who may need these interventions to identifying patients who may need more intensive intervention.

Independent effects of adiposity measures on risk of atrial fibrillation in men and women: a study of 0.5 million individuals.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) has a higher prevalence in men than in women and is associated with measures of adiposity and lean mass (LM). However, it remains uncertain whether the risks of AF associated with these measures vary by sex. METHODS: Among 477 904 UK Biobank participants aged 40-69 without prior AF, 23 134 incident AF cases were identified (14 400 men, 8734 women; median follow-up 11.1 years). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the covariate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) describing the association of AF with weight, measures of adiposity [fat mass (FM), waist circumference (WC)] and LM, and their independent relevance, by sex. RESULTS: Weight and WC were independently associated with risk of AF [HR: 1.25 (1.23-1.27) per 10 kg, HR: 1.11 (1.09-1.14) per 10 cm, respectively], with comparable effects in both sexes. The association with weight was principally driven by LM, which, per 5 kg, conferred double the risk of AF compared with FM when mutually adjusted [HR: 1.20 (1.19-1.21), HR: 1.10 (1.09-1.11), respectively]; however, the effect of LM was weaker in men than in women (p-interaction = 4.3 x 10-9). Comparing the relative effects of LM, FM and WC identified different patterns within each sex; LM was the strongest predictor for both, whereas WC was stronger than FM in men but not in women. CONCLUSIONS: LM and FM (as constituents of weight) and WC are risk factors for AF. However, the independent relevance of general adiposity for AF was more limited in men than in women. The relevance of both WC and LM suggests a potentially important role for visceral adiposity and muscle mass in AF development.

Genome-Wide Association Study of Peripheral Artery Disease.

BACKGROUND: Peripheral artery disease (PAD) affects >200 million people worldwide and is associated with high mortality and morbidity. We sought to identify genomic variants associated with PAD overall and in the contexts of diabetes and smoking status. METHODS: We identified genetic variants associated with PAD and then meta-analyzed with published summary statistics from the Million Veterans Program and UK Biobank to replicate their findings. Next, we ran stratified genome-wide association analysis in ever smokers, never smokers, individuals with diabetes, and individuals with no history of diabetes and corresponding interaction analyses, to identify variants that modify the risk of PAD by diabetic or smoking status. RESULTS: We identified 5 genome-wide significant (Passociation ≤5×10-8) associations with PAD in 449 548 (Ncases=12 086) individuals of European ancestry near LPA (lipoprotein [a]), CDKN2BAS1 (CDKN2B antisense RNA 1), SH2B3 (SH2B adaptor protein 3) - PTPN11 (protein tyrosine phosphatase non-receptor type 11), HDAC9 (histone deacetylase 9), and CHRNA3 (cholinergic receptor nicotinic alpha 3 subunit) loci (which overlapped previously reported associations). Meta-analysis with variants previously associated with PAD showed that 18 of 19 published variants remained genome-wide significant. In individuals with diabetes, rs116405693 at the CCSER1 (coiled-coil serine rich protein 1) locus was associated with PAD (odds ratio [95% CI], 1.51 [1.32-1.74], Pdiabetes=2.5×10-9, Pinteractionwithdiabetes=5.3×10-7). Furthermore, in smokers, rs12910984 at the CHRNA3 locus was associated with PAD (odds ratio [95% CI], 1.15 [1.11-1.19], Psmokers=9.3×10-10, Pinteractionwithsmoking=3.9×10-5). CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses confirm the published genetic associations with PAD and identify novel variants that may influence susceptibility to PAD in the context of diabetes or smoking status.

Genome-Wide Meta-Analysis of Cotinine Levels in Cigarette Smokers Identifies Locus at 4q13.2.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of complex behavioural phenotypes such as cigarette smoking typically employ self-report phenotypes. However, precise biomarker phenotypes may afford greater statistical power and identify novel variants. Here we report the results of a GWAS meta-analysis of levels of cotinine, the primary metabolite of nicotine, in 4,548 daily smokers of European ancestry. We identified a locus close to UGT2B10 at 4q13.2 (minimum p = 5.89 × 10(-10) for rs114612145), which was consequently replicated. This variant is in high linkage disequilibrium with a known functional variant in the UGT2B10 gene which is associated with reduced nicotine and cotinine glucuronidation activity, but intriguingly is not associated with nicotine intake. Additionally, we observed association between multiple variants within the 15q25.1 region and cotinine levels, all located within the CHRNA5-A3-B4 gene cluster or adjacent genes, consistent with previous much larger GWAS using self-report measures of smoking quantity. These results clearly illustrate the increase in power afforded by using precise biomarker measures in GWAS. Perhaps more importantly however, they also highlight that biomarkers do not always mark the phenotype of interest. The use of metabolite data as a proxy for environmental exposures should be carefully considered in the context of individual differences in metabolic pathways.

Adolescent cannabis and tobacco use and educational outcomes at age 16: birth cohort study.

AIMS: To investigate the relationship between cannabis and tobacco use by age 15 and subsequent educational outcomes. DESIGN: Birth cohort study. SETTING: England. PARTICIPANTS: The sample was drawn from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children; a core sample of 1155 individuals had complete information on all the variables. MEASUREMENTS: The main exposures were cannabis and tobacco use at age 15 assessed in clinic by computer-assisted questionnaire and serum cotinine. The main outcomes were performance in standardized assessments at 16 [Key Stage 4, General Certificate of Secondary Education (GCSE)] in English and mathematics (mean scores), completion of five or more assessments at grade C level or higher and leaving school having achieved no qualifications. Analyses were sequentially adjusted for multiple covariates using a hierarchical approach. Covariates considered were: maternal substance use (ever tobacco or cannabis use, alcohol use above recommended limits); life course socio-economic position (family occupational class, maternal education, family income); child sex; month and year of birth; child educational attainment prior to age 11 (Key Stage 2); child substance use (tobacco, alcohol and cannabis) prior to age 15 and child conduct disorder. FINDINGS: In fully adjusted models both cannabis and tobacco use at age 15 were associated with subsequent adverse educational outcomes. In general, the dose-response effect seen was consistent across all educational outcomes assessed. Weekly cannabis use was associated negatively with English GCSE results [grade point difference (GPD), -5.93, 95% confidence interval (CI) = -8.34, -3.53] and with mathematics GCSE results (GPD, -6.91, 95% CI = -9.92, -3.89). Daily tobacco smoking was associated negatively with English GCSE (GPD, -11.90, 95% CI = -13.47, -10.33) and with mathematics GCSE (GPD, -16.72, 95% CI = -18.57, -14.86). The greatest attenuation of these effects was seen on adjustment for other substance use and conduct disorder. Following adjustment, tobacco appeared to have a consistently stronger effect than cannabis. CONCLUSIONS: Both cannabis and tobacco use in adolescence are associated strongly with subsequent adverse educational outcomes. Given the non-specific patterns of association seen and the attenuation of estimates on adjustment, it is possible that these effects arise through non-causal mechanisms, although a causal explanation cannot be discounted. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.