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OBJECTIVES: Esophagogastric variceal bleeding (EGVB) is a serious disease with high mortality. Endoscopic therapy has long been shown to be effective but the optimum technique is still unclear. We aimed to investigate the efficacy, safety and predictive factors of 1-year rebleeding of modified 'sandwich' injection combined with esophageal variceal ligation (EVL) for treating EGVB. METHODS: A retrospective analysis was performed of 100 patients with EGVB who underwent modified 'sandwich' injection with or without EVL (EVL + and EVL - group). Patient follow-up was 1 year. Outcomes such as control of bleeding, rebleeding, complication rate and mortality were compared. Further, prognostic factors for rebleeding at one year were estimated. RESULTS: No significant differences between two groups regarding initial bleeding control, complications, 6-week rebleeding or mortality in 1-year were observed. Rebleeding rate at 1-year of EVL - group was significantly higher than EVL + group (40 vs 20%, p = .029). Independent predictors of rebleeding at 1-year were gender, bilirubin and whether EVL was combined with injection. CONCLUSIONS: Based on this single-center retrospective study, both of the two kinds therapies appeared to have relatively favorable outcomes. With respect to the rebleeding rate at 1-year, modified 'sandwich' injection combined with EVL may be superior to modified 'sandwich' injection alone.
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Varizes Esofágicas e Gástricas , Varizes Esofágicas e Gástricas/complicações , Varizes Esofágicas e Gástricas/terapia , Hemorragia Gastrointestinal/etiologia , Hemorragia Gastrointestinal/terapia , Humanos , Ligadura , Recidiva , Estudos RetrospectivosRESUMO
INTRODUCTION: The available prognostic scoring systems for severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) have limitations that restrict their clinical value. The aim of this study was to develop a simple model (score) that could rapidly identify those at risk for SAP. METHODS: We derived a risk model using a retrospective cohort of 700 patients by logistic regression and bootstrapping methods. The discriminative power of the risk model was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). The classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was used to create risk categories. The model was internally validated by a tenfold cross-validation and externally validated in a separate prospective cohort of 194 patients. RESULTS: The incidence of SAP was 9.7% in the derivation cohort and 9.3% in the validation cohort. A prognostic score (We denoted it as the SABP score), ranging from 0 to 10, consisting of systemic inflammatory response syndrome, serum albumin, blood urea nitrogen and pleural effusion, was developed by logistic regression and bootstrapping analysis. Patients could be divided into three risk categories according to total SABP score based on CART analysis. The mean probability of developing SAP was 1.9%, 12.8% and 41.6% in patients with low (0-3), moderate (4-6) and high (7-10) SABP score, respectively. The AUCs of prognostic score in tenfold cross-validation was 0.873 and 0.872 in the external validation. CONCLUSION: Our risk prediction score may assist physicians in predicting the development of SAP.
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Pancreatite/diagnóstico , Medição de Risco , Índice de Gravidade de Doença , Doença Aguda , Adulto , Estudos de Coortes , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Análise Multivariada , Curva ROC , Reprodutibilidade dos Testes , Fatores de RiscoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Practice on virtual reality simulators (VRSs) has been shown to improve surgical performance. However, VRSs are expensive and usually housed in surgical skills centers that may be inaccessible at times convenient for surgical trainees to practice. Conversely, box trainers (BT) are inexpensive and can be used anywhere at anytime. This study assesses "take-home" BTs as an alternative to VRS. METHODS: After baseline assessments (two simulated laparoscopic cholecystectomies, one on a VRS and one on a BT), 25 surgical trainees were randomized to two groups. Trainees were asked to practice three basic laparoscopic tasks for 6 wk (BT group using a "take-home" box trainer; VR group using VRS in clinical skills centers). After the practice period, all performed two laparoscopic cholecystectomy, one on a VRS and one on a BT; (i.e., posttraining assessment). VRS provided metrics (total time [TT], number of movements instrument tip path length), and expert video assessment of cholecystectomy in a BT (Global Operative Assessment of Laparoscopic Skills [GOALS] score) were recorded. Performance during pretraining and posttraining assessment was compared. RESULTS: The BT group showed a significant improvement for all VRS metrics (P = 0.008) and the efficiency category of GOALS score (P = 0.03). Only TT improved in the VRS group, and none of the GOALS categories demonstrated a statistically significant improvement after training. Finally, the improvement in VRS metrics in the BT group was significantly greater than in the VR group (TT P = 0.005, number of movements P = 0.042, path length P = 0.031), although there were no differences in the GOALS scores between the groups. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that a basic "take-home" BT is a suitable alternative to VRS.
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Colecistectomia Laparoscópica/educação , Competência Clínica , Treinamento por Simulação/métodos , Simulação por Computador , Humanos , Estudos Prospectivos , Método Simples-Cego , Reino Unido , Interface Usuário-ComputadorRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The WHO surgical safety checklist (SSC) is known to prevent postoperative complications; however, strategies for effective implementation are unclear. In addition to cultural and organizational barriers faced by high-income countries, resource-constrained settings face scarcity of durable and consumable goods. We used the SSC to better understand barriers to improvement at a trauma hospital in Battambang, Cambodia. METHODS: We introduced the SSC and trained data collectors to observe surgical staff performing the checklist. Members of the research team observed cases and data collection. After 3 months, we modified the data collection tool to focus on infection prevention and elicit more accurate responses. RESULTS: Over 16 months we recorded data on 695 operations (304 cases using the first tool and 391 cases with the modified tool). The first tool identified five items as being in high compliance, which were then excluded from further assessment. Two items-instrument sterility confirmation and sponge counting-were identified as being misinterpreted by the data collectors' tool. These items were reworded to capture objective assessment of task completion. Confirmation of instrument sterility was initially never performed but rectified to >95% compliance; sponge counting and prophylactic antibiotic administration were consistently underperformed. CONCLUSIONS: Staff complied with communication elements of the SSC and quickly adopted process improvements. The wording of our data collection tool affected interpretation of compliance with standards. Material resources are not the primary barrier to checklist implementation in this setting, and future work should focus on clarification of protocols and objective confirmation of tasks.
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Lista de Checagem , Melhoria de Qualidade , Procedimentos Cirúrgicos Operatórios/normas , Camboja , Lista de Checagem/estatística & dados numéricos , Fidelidade a Diretrizes , Hospitais , Humanos , Segurança do Paciente , Complicações Pós-Operatórias/prevenção & controle , Organização Mundial da SaúdeRESUMO
Most types of dementia, including Alzheimer's disease, are not curable. However, there are risk factors, such as obesity or hypertension, that can promote the development of dementia. Holistic treatment of these risk factors can prevent the onset of dementia or delay it in its early stages. To support individualized treatment of risk factors in dementia, this paper presents a model-driven digital platform. It enables monitoring of biomarkers using smart devices from the internet of medical things (IoMT) for the target group. The collected data from such devices can be used to optimize and adjust treatment in a patient in the loop manner. To this end, providers such as Google Fit and Withings have been connected to the platform as example data sources. To achieve treatment and monitoring data interoperability with existing medical systems, internationally accepted standards such as FHIR are used. The configuration and control of the personalized treatment processes are achieved using a self-developed domain-specific language. For this language, an associated diagram editor was implemented, which allows the management of the treatment processes through graphical models. This graphical representation should help treatment providers to understand and manage these processes more easily. To investigate this hypothesis, a usability study was conducted with twelve participants. We were able to show that such graphical representations provide advantages in clarity in reviewing the system, but lack in easy set-up (compared to wizard-style systems).
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Doença de Alzheimer , Humanos , Fatores de Risco , Idioma , Coleta de Dados , Cuidados PaliativosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Age-related diseases such as dementia are playing an increasingly important role in global population development. Thus, prevention, diagnostics, and interventions require more accessibility, which can be realized through digital health apps. With the app on prescription, Germany made history by being the first country worldwide to offer physicians the possibility to prescribe and reimburse digital health apps as of the end of the year 2020. OBJECTIVE: Considering the lack of knowledge about correlations with the likelihood of use among physicians, this study aimed to address the question of what makes the use of a digital health app by physicians more likely. METHODS: We developed and validated a novel measurement tool-the Digital Health Compliance Questionnaire (DHCQ)-in an interdisciplinary collaboration of experts to assess the role of proposed factors in the likelihood of using a health app. Therefore, a web-based survey was conducted to evaluate the likelihood of using a digital app called DemPredict to screen for Alzheimer dementia. Within this survey, 5 latent dimensions (acceptance, attitude toward technology, technology experience, payment for time of use, and effort of collection), the dependent variable likelihood of use, and answers to exploratory questions were recorded and tested within directed correlations. Following a non-probability-sampling strategy, the study was completed by 331 physicians from Germany in the German language, of whom 301 (90.9%) fulfilled the study criteria (eg, being in regular contact with patients with dementia). These data were analyzed using a range of statistical methods to validate the dimensions of the DHCQ. RESULTS: The DHCQ revealed good test theoretical measures-it showed excellent fit indexes (Tucker-Lewis index=0.98; comparative fit index=0.982; standardized root mean square residual=0.073; root mean square error of approximation=0.037), good internal consistency (Cronbach α=.83), and signs of moderate to large correlations between the DHCQ dimensions and the dependent variable. The correlations between the variables acceptance, attitude toward technology, technology experience, and payment for the time of use and the dependent variable likelihood of use ranged from 0.29 to 0.79, and the correlation between effort of the collection and likelihood of use was -0.80. In addition, we found high levels of skepticism regarding data protection, and the age of the participants was found to be negatively related to their technical experience and attitude toward technology. CONCLUSIONS: In the context of the results, increased communication between the medical and technology sectors and significantly more awareness raising are recommended to make the use of digital health apps more attractive to physicians as they can be adjusted to their everyday needs. Further research could explore the connection between areas such as adherence on the patient side and its impact on the likelihood of use by physicians.
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Background: Foreign bodies (FBs) lodged in the intestine or causing intestinal complications are uncommon in clinical practice but may pose diagnostic difficulties and prove life-threatening. This study aimed to evaluate the risk factors for severe complications and surgery to aid clinicians in the diagnosis and management of intestinal FBs. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of patients in whom FBs were lodged in the intestine or caused complications from 2010 to 2020 in the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University (Zhejiang, China). The characteristics of the patients and FBs, symptoms, imaging findings, diagnostics, treatment strategies, and clinical outcomes were analysed. Furthermore, the risk factors for complications and surgery were investigated. Results: In total, 180 patients were included in our study. Most patients (76.1%) were unable to provide a history of ingestion. Bezoars were the most common FBs (35.6%). The FBs were mainly located in the duodenum (32.8%) and the ileum (27.8%). Surgical removal of FBs was successful in 89 (49.4%) patients and endoscopic removal in 54 (30.0%) patients. Eleven with perforations were treated conservatively. FBs located in the jejunum or ileum were more likely to cause severe complications than those located in the duodenum. FBs located in the jejunum, ileum, or sigmoid colon were more likely to undergo surgery, and severe complications were an independent risk factor for surgery. Conclusion: Intestinal FBs, often localized in angulation, are likely to be misdiagnosed because most patients do not provide a history of FB ingestion. Surgery and endoscopic therapy are the most commonly used treatment modalities. Surgery is not mandatory in clinically stable patients with small and contained perforations. FBs located in the jejunum or ileum are risk factors for both complications and surgery.
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Background and Aims: The aim of this study was to apply machine learning models and a nomogram to differentiate critically ill from non-critically ill COVID-19 pneumonia patients. Methods: Clinical symptoms and signs, laboratory parameters, cytokine profile, and immune cellular data of 63 COVID-19 pneumonia patients were retrospectively reviewed. Outcomes were followed up until Mar 12, 2020. A logistic regression function (LR model), Random Forest, and XGBoost models were developed. The performance of these models was measured by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis. Results: Univariate analysis revealed that there was a difference between critically and non-critically ill patients with respect to levels of interleukin-6, interleukin-10, T cells, CD4+ T, and CD8+ T cells. Interleukin-10 with an AUC of 0.86 was most useful predictor of critically ill patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Ten variables (respiratory rate, neutrophil counts, aspartate transaminase, albumin, serum procalcitonin, D-dimer and B-type natriuretic peptide, CD4+ T cells, interleukin-6 and interleukin-10) were used as candidate predictors for LR model, Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost model application. The coefficients from LR model were utilized to build a nomogram. RF and XGBoost methods suggested that Interleukin-10 and interleukin-6 were the most important variables for severity of illness prediction. The mean AUC for LR, RF, and XGBoost model were 0.91, 0.89, and 0.93 respectively (in two-fold cross-validation). Individualized prediction by XGBoost model was explained by local interpretable model-agnostic explanations (LIME) plot. Conclusions: XGBoost exhibited the highest discriminatory performance for prediction of critically ill patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. It is inferred that the nomogram and visualized interpretation with LIME plot could be useful in the clinical setting. Additionally, interleukin-10 could serve as a useful predictor of critically ill patients with COVID-19 pneumonia.
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COVID-19 , Interleucina-10 , Linfócitos T CD8-Positivos , COVID-19/diagnóstico , Estado Terminal , Citocinas , Humanos , Interleucina-6 , Nomogramas , Gravidade do Paciente , Estudos Retrospectivos , Índice de Gravidade de DoençaRESUMO
BACKGROUND & AIMS: There is no consensus on relationship between total cholesterol levels and incidence of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). The aim of this study was to investigate the relation between total cholesterol (TC) and the disease severity of acute pancreatitis. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study on patients with acute pancreatitis between April 2012 and December 2015 in a university hospital. Fasting blood total cholesterol (TC) was assayed within 24 h of admission, as well as 3-5 days, 7-9 days and 13-15 days during hospitalization. Time interval before admission, age, gender, Body Mass Index, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, alcohol consumption, smoking, etiology and albumin were recorded as potential confounding factors. To assess the pattern of relationship of TC and SAP, we used restricted cubic spline analysis with multivariable logistic regression analysis. We also compared total cholesterol concentrations between patients with or without SAP at different time points. RESULTS: 648 patients (median age: 47.5 years; 62.4% man) were enrolled. The incidence of SAP was 10%. A U-shaped association of TC level within 24 h of admission with severity was observed in acute pancreatitis. Patients with low TC levels (<160 mg/dL) and high TC levels (>240 mg/dL) had a significantly higher incidence of SAP and protracted hospital stays when compared to moderate TC levels (160-240 mg/dL). Low total cholesterol levels (OR 2.72; 95 %eCI 1.27-5.83; P = 0.01) and high total cholesterol levels (OR 2.54; 95 %eCI 1.09-5.89; P = 0.03), were still independently associated with development of SAP after adjusting for potential confounding factors. Longitudinal cohort study indicated that patients with SAP had lower total cholesterol concentrations among 3-15 days after admission compared to patients without SAP (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Both low TC level (<160 mg/dL) and high TC (>240 mg/dL) within 24 h of admission is independently associated with an increased risk of SAP.
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Colesterol/sangue , Pancreatite/sangue , Pancreatite/epidemiologia , Adulto , China/epidemiologia , Estudos de Coortes , Estudos Transversais , Feminino , Humanos , Incidência , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Índice de Gravidade de DoençaRESUMO
BACKGROUND AND AIM: To investigate the prevalence and characteristics of colonic adenoma and advanced colonic adenoma in a large group of patients in mainland China. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study on patients who had undergone colonoscopy examination in a university hospital in mainland China. Colonic adenomas and advanced adenomas were recorded. RESULTS: The prevalence of polyps, adenoma, and advanced adenoma was 23.9%, 13.3%, and 3.5%, respectively. Age and sex were independent risk factors for the prevalence of adenoma and advanced adenoma. Polyp size was associated with an increased risk of both colonic adenoma (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.44-1.56) and advanced adenoma (OR 2.78, 95% CI 2.55-3.03) after sex and age adjustment. Proximal colon polyps were a risk factor for adenoma (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.20-1.66) and also associated with a significant reduction (44%) in risk of advanced adenoma (OR 0.56, 95% CI 0.36-0.86) compared to distal colon adenoma after sex and age adjustment. A screening indication was associated with a statistically significant decrease in the odds of prevalence of adenoma (OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.81-0.99) and advanced adenoma (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.59-0.88) compared to a no-screening indication. CONCLUSION: The overall prevalence of adenoma was low in mainland China. It exhibited a varied pattern with respect to age and sex. Polyp size was a risk factor for both colonic adenoma and its transition to advanced adenoma. Proximal colon polyps were a risk factor for adenoma, but a protective factor for advanced adenoma compared to distal colon adenoma.
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BACKGROUND AND AIM: The aim of this study was to investigate the association between low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and the development of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP). PATIENTS AND METHODS: A total of 674 patients with acute pancreatitis were enrolled. Non-linearity in the relationship between LDL-C and SAP was assessed by restricted cubic spline analysis. Univariable and multivariable regression analyses were used to identify independent risk factors of SAP. RESULTS: The restricted cubic spline analysis suggested a nonlinear association between high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), LDL-C and triglyceride levels and incidence of SAP. The incidence of SAP in patients with low LDL-C (<90 mg/dL), moderate LDL-C (90-150 mg/dL) and high LDL-C (>150 mg/dL) levels was 15.1%, 3.7% and 9.8%, respectively. Multivariable analysis confirmed that low LDL-C levels (odds ratio [OR] 3.05; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-6.90), high LDL-C levels (OR 4.42; 95% CI 1.41-13.87) and low HDL-C levels (OR 6.90; 95% CI 2.61-18.23) but not high triglyceride levels (OR 1.05; 95% CI 0.40-2.72) were associated with the development of SAP. CONCLUSION: Both low LDL-C (<90 mg/dL) and high LDL-C (>150 mg/dL) levels within 24 hours from admission are independently associated with an increased risk of SAP.
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BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Colonic diverticulosis may represent a risk factor for colonic adenomas by virtue of the fact that evolving data suggest that these 2 conditions may share common risk factors such as Western dietary pattern and physical inactivity. This study aims to investigate the association between colonic diverticulosis and colonic adenomas in mainland China. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study on patients who underwent colonoscopic examination between October 2013 and December 2014 in a university hospital in mainland China. Age, gender, colonic adenomas, advanced adenomas, and distribution of diverticulosis were recorded during the procedures. Multivariate logistic regression and stratified analysis were used to evaluate the associations between the prevalence of diverticulosis and age, sex, and presence of colonic adenomas and advanced adenomas. RESULTS: A total of 17,456 subjects were enrolled. The prevalence of colonic diverticulosis and adenoma was 2.4% and 13.2%, respectively. With regard to distribution of diverticula, most (365/424, 86.1%) were right-sided. Multiple logistic regression analysis suggested that age and male gender were independent risk factors for adenoma and advanced adenoma. There was no relationship between diverticulosis or location of diverticulosis and presence of adenoma and advanced adenoma adjusting by age and gender. In a stratified analysis according to age and gender, similar results were also noted. CONCLUSION: There was no statistical relationship between diverticulosis and the risk of adenoma and advanced adenoma. Our results may not be generalized to the Western population due to the fact that left-sided diverticular cases were very small in our study.
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OBJECTIVES: The current study was designed to assess the clinical predictors of hypoxemia and to develop a multivariable, predictive model for hypoxemia during routine gastrointestinal endoscopy. METHODS: In total, 308 patients were enrolled in the analysis. Demographic data, concurrent chronic disease information, anesthetic dose and Modified Observer's Assessment of Alertness/Sedation (MOAA/S) scores were collected and analyzed statistically. RESULTS: Multivariate logistic regression indicated that age (OR: 1.04; 95%CI 1.01-1.08), body mass index (BMI) (OR: 1.12; 95%CI: 1.02-1.21) and habitual snoring (OR: 3.71; 95%CI: 1.62-8.48) were independently associated with hypoxemia. A logistic regression function (LR model) was developed to predict hypoxemia considering the parameters of -7.73+0.04 age (years), +0.11 BMI, and +1.31 habitual snoring (yes or no). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the LR model was 0.76. CONCLUSIONS: The LR model, consisting of age, BMI and habitual snoring, was a useful predictor of hypoxemia during routine sedation for gastrointestinal endoscopy.
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Sedação Consciente/efeitos adversos , Endoscopia Gastrointestinal/efeitos adversos , Hipóxia/etiologia , Endoscopia Gastrointestinal/métodos , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Modelos Teóricos , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Estudos Prospectivos , Curva ROCRESUMO
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Early prediction of disease severity of acute pancreatitis (AP) would be helpful for triaging patients to the appropriate level of care and intervention. The aim of the study was to develop a model able to predict Severe Acute Pancreatitis (SAP). METHODS: A total of 647 patients with AP were enrolled. The demographic data, hematocrit, High-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol (HDL-C) determinant at time of admission, Blood Urea Nitrogen (BUN), and serum creatinine (Scr) determinant at time of admission and 24 hrs after hospitalization were collected and analyzed statistically. RESULTS: Multivariate logistic regression indicated that HDL-C at admission and BUN and Scr at 24 hours (hrs) were independently associated with SAP. A logistic regression function (LR model) was developed to predict SAP as follows: -2.25-0.06 HDL-C (mg/dl) at admission + 0.06 BUN (mg/dl) at 24 hours + 0.66 Scr (mg/dl) at 24 hours. The optimism-corrected c-index for LR model was 0.832 after bootstrap validation. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for LR model for the prediction of SAP was 0.84. CONCLUSIONS: The LR model consists of HDL-C at admission and BUN and Scr at 24 hours, representing an additional tool to stratify patients at risk of SAP.
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Nitrogênio da Ureia Sanguínea , HDL-Colesterol/sangue , Creatinina/sangue , Pancreatite/sangue , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pancreatite/epidemiologia , Pancreatite/fisiopatologia , Prognóstico , Índice de Gravidade de DoençaRESUMO
BACKGROUND/AIMS: In patients with colon cancer who undergo resection for potential cure, 40-60% have advanced locoregional disease (stage III). Those who are suitable for adjuvant treatment had a definite disease-free-survival benefit. The aim of the present study was to demonstrate whether the presence of desmoplasia influenced the mortality rate of stage III colorectal cancer (CRC) within 5 years from the surgery and adjuvant therapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Sixty-five patients with stage III CRC underwent resection and adjuvant therapy. Qualitative categorization of desmoplasia was obtained using Ueno's stromal CRC classification. Desmoplasia was related to mortality using Spearman correlation and stratified with other histological variables (inflammation, grading) that concurred to the major determinant of malignancy (venous invasion and lymph nodes) using the Chi-square test. RESULT: The 5-year survival rate was 65% and the relapse rate was 37%. The mortality rate in patients with immature desmoplasia was 86%, 27% in intermediate desmoplasia, and 0% in mature desmoplasia (Spearman correlation coefficient: -0.572,P= 0.05). CONCLUSION: Immature desmoplasia appears to be associated with disease recurrence and mortality in stage III CRC patients.
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Neoplasias Colorretais/mortalidade , Neoplasias Colorretais/terapia , Linfócitos do Interstício Tumoral/patologia , Recidiva Local de Neoplasia/epidemiologia , Células Estromais/patologia , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Antineoplásicos/uso terapêutico , Quimioterapia Adjuvante/métodos , Colectomia/métodos , Neoplasias Colorretais/patologia , Terapia Combinada , Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Recidiva Local de Neoplasia/mortalidade , Estadiamento de Neoplasias , Prevalência , Taxa de SobrevidaRESUMO
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: To investigate the association between serum albumin levels within 24 hrs of patient admission and the development of persistent organ failure in acute pancreatitis. METHODS: A total of 700 patients with acute pancreatitis were enrolled. Multivariate logistic regression and subgroup analysis determined whether decreased albumin was independently associated with persistent organ failure and mortality. The diagnostic performance of serum albumin was evaluated by the area under Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves. RESULTS: As levels of serum albumin decrease, the risk of persistent organ failure significantly increases (Ptrend < 0.001). The incidence of organ failure was 3.5%, 10.6%, and 41.6% in patients with normal albumin and mild and severe hypoalbuminaemia, respectively. Decreased albumin levels were also proportionally associated with prolonged hospital stay (Ptrend < 0.001) and the risk of death (Ptrend < 0.001). Multivariate analysis suggested that biliary etiology, chronic concomitant diseases, hematocrit, blood urea nitrogen, and the serum albumin level were independently associated with persistent organ failure. Blood urea nitrogen and the serum albumin level were also independently associated with mortality. The area under ROC curves of albumin for predicting organ failure and mortality were 0.78 and 0.87, respectively. CONCLUSION: A low serum albumin is independently associated with an increased risk of developing of persistent organ failure and death in acute pancreatitis. It may also be useful for the prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis.
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Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Hipoalbuminemia/epidemiologia , Pancreatite/fisiopatologia , Albumina Sérica Humana/metabolismo , Doença Aguda , Adulto , Nitrogênio da Ureia Sanguínea , Humanos , Tempo de Internação , Modelos Logísticos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Análise Multivariada , Escores de Disfunção Orgânica , Pancreatite/sangue , Pancreatite/mortalidade , Curva ROC , Estudos Retrospectivos , Índice de Gravidade de DoençaRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: The current study was designed to assess the clinical predictors of hypoxemia and to develop a multivariable, predictive model for hypoxemia during routine gastrointestinal endoscopy. METHODS: In total, 308 patients were enrolled in the analysis. Demographic data, concurrent chronic disease information, anesthetic dose and Modified Observer's Assessment of Alertness/Sedation (MOAA/S) scores were collected and analyzed statistically. RESULTS: Multivariate logistic regression indicated that age (OR: 1.04; 95%CI 1.01-1.08), body mass index (BMI) (OR: 1.12; 95%CI: 1.02-1.21) and habitual snoring (OR: 3.71; 95%CI: 1.62-8.48) were independently associated with hypoxemia. A logistic regression function (LR model) was developed to predict hypoxemia considering the parameters of -7.73+0.04 age (years), +0.11 BMI, and +1.31 habitual snoring (yes or no). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the LR model was 0.76. CONCLUSIONS: The LR model, consisting of age, BMI and habitual snoring, was a useful predictor of hypoxemia during routine sedation for gastrointestinal endoscopy.