Risk of dementia associated with body mass index, changes in body weight and waist circumference in older people with type 2 diabetes: The Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: To determine the relationship of dementia with preceding body mass index (BMI), changes in body weight and waist circumference in older people with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: In the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study (1064 men and women with type 2 diabetes, aged 60-75), body weight, waist circumference and BMI were measured at baseline and after 4 years in a subgroup (n = 821). Percentage body weight and waist circumference change over 4 years were calculated. Data on incident dementia was recorded during a median follow-up time of 10.84 years. Survival models considering a range of co-variables and/or death as a competing risk were used to estimate the risks of dementia associated with each weight-related variable. RESULTS: A total of 105 incident dementia events were recorded. When compared with people in the lowest BMI group (<25 kg/m2 ), risk of dementia was lower in intermediate BMI groups (25-29.9 kg/m2 , HR 0.44, p = 0.002; 30-34.9 kg/m2 , HR 0.41, p = 0.001) and the highest BMI group (≧35 kg/m2 , HR 0.35, p = 0.001). In the weight change subgroup, 78 incident dementia events were recorded between years 4 and 10. Body weight loss over 5% (compared with ≦5%) was associated with higher incidence of dementia (HR 2.06, p = 0.010). The association between waist circumference change and dementia was not significant. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATIONS: Both a lower BMI and weight loss over a period of years are indicative of increased dementia risk for older people with type 2 diabetes, while waist circumference changes may be less informative.

Changes in continuous glucose monitoring metrics and predictors of improvement 12 months after conversion from Freestyle Libre to Freestyle Libre 2.

AIMS: We sought to assess whether conversion from Freestyle Libre to Freestyle Libre 2 (with low and high glucose alert functions) was associated with improved glucose metrics. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A prospective observational study to assess changes in CGM metrics in 672 adults with type 1 diabetes when converting to Freestyle Libre 2. Secondary outcomes included predictors of reduction in time below range (TBR) and increase in time in range (TIR). RESULTS: TBR fell by a median of 1.0% (IQR -2.7 to 0.3, p < 0.001) after 12 months and TIR decreased by 1.0% (-8.7 to 6.0, p = 0.004). TIR did not fall in people using high glucose alerts (p = 0.353). Average duration of low glucose events (<3.9 mmoL/L) fell by 10 min (-46 to 18, p < 0.001). Significant improvements in TIR (p = 0.029) and time above 13.9 mM (p = 0.002) were observed in those using high glucose alerts. Alert threshold settings were not associated with glycaemic response; however, low alert use was independently associated with a fall in TBR of ≥0.5% (HR 1.9 [95% CI 1.2-3.1], p = 0.009) and high alert use was independently associated with a rise in TIR of ≥5% (HR 1.6 [95% CI 1.0-2.5], p = 0.043) at 12 months. CONCLUSIONS: Conversion to Freestyle Libre 2 was associated with significant improvements in low glucose metrics. Alert function users were more likely to see improvements across all CGM metrics. Challenges remain in encouraging alert use, helping users set optimal alert thresholds and optimizing response to alerts.

Variation in general practice referral rate to acute medicine services and association with hospital admission. A retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND: Variation in general practice (GP) referral rates to outpatient services is well described however variance in rates of referral to acute medical units is lacking. OBJECTIVE: To investigate variance in GP referral rate for acute medical assessment and subsequent need for hospital admission. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of acute medical referrals from 88 GPs in Lothian, Scotland between 2017 and 2020 was performed using practice population size, age, deprivation, care home residence, and distance from hospital as explanatory variables. Patient-level analysis of demography, deprivation, comorbidity, and acuity markers was subsequently performed on referred and clinically assessed acute medical patients (n = 42,424) to examine how practice referral behaviour reflects clinical need for inpatient hospital care. RESULTS: Variance in GP referral rates for acute medical assessment was high (2.53-fold variation 1st vs. 4th quartile) and incompletely explained by increasing age and deprivation (adjusted R2 0.67, P < 0.001) such that significant variance remained after correction for confounders (2.15-fold). Patients from the highest referring quartile were significantly less likely to require hospital admission than those from the third, second, or lowest referring quartiles (adjusted odds ratio 1.28 [1.21-1.36, P < 0.001]; 1.30 [1.23-1.37, P < 0.001]; 1.53 [1.42-1.65, P < 0.001]). CONCLUSIONS: High variation in GP practice referral rate for acute medical assessment is incompletely explained by practice population socioeconomic factors and negatively associates with need for urgent inpatient care. Identifying modifiable factors influencing referral rate may provide opportunities to facilitate community-based care and reduce congestion on acute unscheduled care pathways.

Managing the populations need for urgent medical care is challenge in many healthcare systems and overcrowding of urgent medical services negatively affects patient experience and can affect timely treatment. In the United Kingdom, the primary sources of patients attending for acute medical care are self-attendance to the hospital or by way of referral by a primary care physician (general practitioner). These data for the first time demonstrate high variation in referral rates for acute medical assessment between general practices which is incompletely explained by factors such as the age, deprivation, distance to the hospital or care home residence status of the care home population. Analysis of over 40,000 of these referrals for urgent medical care was subsequently undertaken to further investigate this variation. After adjusting for important clinical factors, patients referred from "high referring" practices were over 50% less likely to require inpatient hospital care than patients from lower referring practices. This suggests that the threshold for referral varies greatly between individual primary care clinicians, practices, or practice populations and many of these patients may have been suitable for less urgent community-based care. Identification of modifiable factors that account for this unexplained variation may facilitate community-based care and improve patient experience by reducing unnecessary attendance and congestion in already busy emergency care services.

Higher baseline inflammatory marker levels predict greater cognitive decline in older people with type 2 diabetes: year 10 follow-up of the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to determine the longitudinal association of circulating markers of systemic inflammation with subsequent long-term cognitive change in older people with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: The Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study is a prospective cohort study of 1066 adults aged 60 to 75 years with type 2 diabetes. Baseline data included C-reactive protein, IL-6, TNF-α fibrinogen and neuropsychological testing on major cognitive domains. Cognitive testing was repeated after 10 years in 581 participants. A general cognitive ability score was derived from the battery of seven individual cognitive tests using principal component analysis. Linear regression was used to determine longitudinal associations between baseline inflammatory markers and cognitive outcomes at follow-up, with baseline cognitive test results included as covariables to model cognitive change over time. RESULTS: Following adjustment for age, sex and baseline general cognitive ability, higher baseline fibrinogen and IL-6 were associated with greater decline in general cognitive ability (standardised ßs = -0.059, p=0.032 and -0.064, p=0.018, respectively). These associations lost statistical significance after adjustment for baseline vascular and diabetes-related covariables. When assessing associations with individual cognitive tests, higher IL-6 was associated with greater decline in tests of executive function and abstract reasoning (standardised ßs = 0.095, p=0.006 and -0.127, p=0.001, respectively). Similarly, raised fibrinogen and C-reactive protein levels were associated with greater decline in processing speed (standardised ßs = -0.115, p=0.001 and -0.111, p=0.001, respectively). These associations remained statistically significant after adjustment for the diabetes- and vascular-related risk factors. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Higher baseline levels of inflammatory markers, including plasma IL-6, fibrinogen and C-reactive protein, were associated with subsequent cognitive decline in older people with type 2 diabetes. At least some of this association appeared to be specific to certain cognitive domains and to be independent of vascular and diabetes-related risk factors.

Serum metabolomic profiles associated with subclinical and clinical cardiovascular phenotypes in people with type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is the leading cause of death in diabetes, but the full range of biomarkers reflecting atherosclerotic burden and CVD risk in people with diabetes is unknown. Metabolomics may help identify novel biomarkers potentially involved in development of atherosclerosis. We investigated the serum metabolomic profile of subclinical atherosclerosis, measured using ankle brachial index (ABI), in people with type 2 diabetes, compared with the profile for symptomatic CVD in the same population. METHODS: The Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study is a cohort of 1,066 individuals with type 2 diabetes. ABI was measured at baseline, years 4 and 10, with cardiovascular events assessed at baseline and during 10 years of follow-up. A panel of 228 metabolites was measured at baseline using nuclear magnetic resonance spectrometry, and their association with both ABI and prevalent CVD was explored using univariate regression models and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). Metabolites associated with baseline ABI were further explored for association with follow-up ABI and incident CVD. RESULTS: Mean (standard deviation, SD) ABI at baseline was 0.97 (0.18, N = 1025), and prevalence of CVD was 35.0%. During 10-year follow-up, mean (SD) change in ABI was + 0.006 (0.178, n = 436), and 257 CVD events occurred. Lactate, glycerol, creatinine and glycoprotein acetyls levels were associated with baseline ABI in both univariate regression [ßs (95% confidence interval, CI) ranged from - 0.025 (- 0.036, - 0.015) to - 0.023 (- 0.034, - 0.013), all p < 0.0002] and LASSO analysis. The associations remained nominally significant after adjustment for major vascular risk factors. In prospective analyses, lactate was nominally associated with ABI measured at years 4 and 10 after adjustment for baseline ABI. The four ABI-associated metabolites were all positively associated with prevalent CVD [odds ratios (ORs) ranged from 1.29 (1.13, 1.47) to 1.49 (1.29, 1.74), all p < 0.0002], and they were also positively associated with incident CVD [ORs (95% CI) ranged from 1.19 (1.02, 1.39) to 1.35 (1.17, 1.56), all p < 0.05]. CONCLUSIONS: Serum metabolites relating to glycolysis, fluid balance and inflammation were independently associated with both a marker of subclinical atherosclerosis and with symptomatic CVD in people with type 2 diabetes. Additional investigation is warranted to determine their roles as possible etiological and/or predictive biomarkers for atherosclerotic CVD.

A study of diabetic ketoacidosis in the pregnant population in the United Kingdom: Investigating the incidence, aetiology, management and outcomes.

AIM: To estimate the incidence of diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) among pregnant women, describe its clinical features, management and outcomes and identify the risk factors for the condition. METHODS: A national population-based case-control study was conducted in the UK using the UK Obstetric Surveillance System between April 2019 and September 2020 including all pregnant women with DKA irrespective of the level of blood glucose. The incidence rate of DKA in pregnancy was estimated. A case-control analysis limited to women with type 1 diabetes was performed comparing characteristics of women with DKA (cases) to those of women whose pregnancies were not complicated by DKA (controls). RESULTS: In all, 82 women were identified with DKA in pregnancy; 6.3 per 100,000 maternities (95% CI: 5.0-7.9). No maternal deaths occurred, but perinatal mortality was 12/73 (16%) with 11 stillbirths and one neonatal death. DKA episodes mostly occurred in women with type 1 diabetes (85%) and in the 3rd trimester of pregnancy (71%). Episodes were mainly precipitated by infection (21%), vomiting (21%), steroid therapy (13%) and medication errors (10%). Fifteen percent of women had more than one episode of DKA during their pregnancy. Risk factors associated with DKA among women with type 1 diabetes identified through the case-control analysis were the woman and/or partner not being in a paid employment and having at least one microvascular complication of diabetes before pregnancy. CONCLUSION: DKA in pregnancy was associated with high perinatal mortality and was linked with factors related to socio-economic deprivation, mental health problems and long-term difficulties with glycaemic control.

Depression as a risk factor for dementia in older people with type 2 diabetes and the mediating effect of inflammation.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to determine the association of depression with dementia risk in people with type 2 diabetes, and to explore the possible mediating role of inflammation in this relationship. METHODS: The Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study is a prospective cohort of 1066 men and women with type 2 diabetes aged 60-75 years. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to investigate the association between depression, assessed at baseline, and subsequent risk of dementia over 10 years. Depression was defined using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, while incident dementia was defined using medical records, prescription data and death certificates. The potential mediating effect of systemic inflammation was assessed by adjusting models for a generalised inflammation factor, derived from four inflammatory markers measured at baseline (C-reactive protein, IL-6, TNF-α and fibrinogen), and carrying out an exploratory mediation analysis. RESULTS: Dementia developed in 105 participants over a median follow-up of 10.6 years. After adjusting for age and sex, depression was associated with over a 2.5-fold increase in risk of dementia (HR 2.59 [95% CI 1.62, 4.15]). Additional adjustment for the generalised inflammation factor and other covariates did not attenuate the size of association between depression and incident dementia and mediation analysis showed that it was not a mediator. Adjusted logistic regression models showed cross-sectional associations of C-reactive protein and IL-6 with depression. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Depression is an important risk factor for dementia in people with type 2 diabetes. Some inflammatory markers were associated with depression, but systemic inflammation does not appear to mediate the relationship between depression and dementia. Graphical abstract.

Retinal arteriolar tortuosity and fractal dimension are associated with long-term cardiovascular outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Our aim was to determine whether quantitative retinal traits in people with type 2 diabetes are independently associated with incident major cardiovascular events including CHD and stroke. METHODS: A total of 1066 men and women with type 2 diabetes, aged 65-74 years, were followed up over 8 years in the population-based Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study. Using retinal photographs taken at baseline and specialist software, a number of quantitative retinal traits were measured, including arteriolar and venular widths and tortuosity as well as fractal dimension (a measure of the branching pattern complexity of the retinal vasculature network). Incident CHD events occurring during follow-up included fatal and non-fatal myocardial infarction, first episodes of angina and coronary interventions for CHD. Incident cerebrovascular events included fatal and non-fatal stroke or transient ischaemic attack. Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were performed to identify the association of the retinal traits with cardiovascular events in the population with retinal data available (n = 1028). RESULTS: A total of 200 participants had an incident cardiovascular event (139 CHD and 61 cerebrovascular events). Following adjustment for age and sex, arteriolar tortuosity and fractal dimension were associated with cerebrovascular events (HR 1.27 [95% CI 1.02, 1.58] and HR 0.74 [95% CI 0.57, 0.95], respectively), including with stroke alone (HR 1.30 [95% CI 1.01, 1.66] and HR 0.73 [95% CI 0.56, 0.97], respectively). These associations persisted after further adjustment for established cardiovascular risk factors (HR 1.26 [95% CI 1.01, 1.58] and HR 0.73 [95% CI 0.56, 0.94], respectively). Associations generally reduced in strength after a final adjustment for the presence of diabetic retinopathy, but the association of fractal dimension with incident cerebrovascular events and stroke retained statistical significance (HR 0.73 [95% CI 0.57, 0.95] and HR 0.72 [95% CI 0.54, 0.97], respectively). Associations of retinal traits with CHD were generally weak and showed no evidence of statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Arteriolar tortuosity and fractal dimension were associated with incident cerebrovascular events, independent of a wide range of traditional cardiovascular risk factors including diabetic retinopathy. These findings suggest potential for measurements of early retinal vasculature change to aid in the identification of people with type 2 diabetes who are at increased risk from stroke.

Continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion therapy is associated with reduced retinopathy progression compared with multiple daily injections of insulin.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to compare diabetic retinopathy outcomes in people with type 1 diabetes following introduction of continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) therapy with outcomes in people receiving continuing therapy with multiple daily insulin injections (MDI). METHODS: This is a retrospective cohort study using the Scottish Care Information - Diabetes database for retinal screening outcomes and HbA1c changes in 204 adults commenced on CSII therapy between 2013 and 2016, and 211 adults eligible for CSII during the same period but who continued on MDI therapy. Diabetic retinopathy progression (time to minimum one-grade worsening in diabetic retinopathy from baseline grading) was plotted for CSII and MDI cohorts using Kaplan-Meier curves, and outcomes were compared using multivariate Cox regression analysis adjusting for age, sex, baseline HbA1c, blood pressure, cholesterol, smoking status and socioeconomic quintile. Impact of baseline HbA1c and change in HbA1c on diabetic retinopathy progression was assessed within CSII and MDI cohorts. RESULTS: CSII participants were significantly younger, were from less socially deprived areas, and had lower HbA1c and higher diastolic BP at baseline. There was a larger reduction in HbA1c at 1 year in those on CSII vs MDI (-6 mmol/mol [-0.6%] vs -2 mmol/mol [-0.2%], p < 0.01). Diabetic retinopathy progression occurred in a smaller proportion of adults following commencement of CSII vs continued MDI therapy over mean 2.3 year follow-up (26.5% vs 18.6%, p = 0.0097). High baseline HbA1c (75 mmol/mol [9%]) was associated with diabetic retinopathy progression in the MDI group (p = 0.0049) but not the CSII group (p = 0.93). Change in HbA1c at follow-up, irrespective of baseline glycaemic status, did not significantly affect diabetic retinopathy progression in either group. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: CSII was associated with reduced diabetic retinopathy progression compared with continued MDI therapy, and may be protective against diabetic retinopathy progression for those with high baseline HbA1c. Progression of diabetic retinopathy over 3 years was not associated with a change in HbA1c.

Retinal venular tortuosity and fractal dimension predict incident retinopathy in adults with type 2 diabetes: the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Our aim was to determine whether a range of prespecified retinal vessel traits were associated with incident diabetic retinopathy in adults with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: In the prospective observational cohort Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study of 1066 adults with type 2 diabetes, aged 60-75 years at recruitment, 718 were free from diabetic retinopathy at baseline. Baseline retinal traits including vessel widths, tortuosity (curvature) and fractal dimensions (network complexity), were quantified using fundus camera images and semiautomated software, and analysed using logistic regression for their association with incident diabetic retinopathy over 10 years. RESULTS: The incidence of diabetic retinopathy was 11.4% (n = 82) over 10 years. After adjustment for a range of vascular and diabetes-related risk factors, both increased venular tortuosity (OR 1.51; 95% CI 1.15, 1.98; p = 0.003) and decreased fractal dimension (OR 0.75; 95% CI 0.58, 0.96; p = 0.025) were associated with incident retinopathy. There was no evidence of an association with arterial tortuosity, and associations between measurements of vessel widths and retinopathy lost statistical significance after adjustment for diabetes-related factors and vascular disease. Adding venular tortuosity to a model including established risk factors for diabetic retinopathy (HbA1c, BP and kidney function) improved the discriminative ability (C statistic increased from 0.624 to 0.640, p = 0.013), but no such benefit was found with fractal dimension. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Increased retinal venular tortuosity and decreased fractal dimension are associated with incident diabetic retinopathy, independent of classical risk factors. There is some evidence that venular tortuosity may be a useful biomarker to improve the predictive ability of models based on established retinopathy risk factors, and its inclusion in further risk prediction modelling is warranted.

Socioeconomic deprivation, technology use, C-peptide, smoking and other predictors of glycaemic control in adults with type 1 diabetes.

AIMS: Intensive glycaemic control is associated with substantial health benefits in people with type 1 diabetes. We sought to examine clinical and demographic factors associated with meeting glycaemic targets in type 1 diabetes. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis of 4594 individuals with type 1 diabetes. The primary outcome of the study was assessing factors associated with meeting HbA1c targets. Secondary endpoints included factors associated with continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion (CSII) use and persistent C-peptide secretion. RESULTS: Socioeconomic deprivation was strongly associated with a lower likelihood of achieving an HbA1c <58 mmol/mol (7.5%) (20% in the most deprived quintile vs. 40% in the least deprived, p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, absence of smoking history (OR 3.06, p < 0.001), flash monitoring (OR 1.49, p < 0.001), CSII (1.43, p = 0.022) and longer diabetes duration (OR 1.02 per year, p = 0.004) were independently associated with achieving HbA1c <58 mmol/mol (7.5%), whereas increasing age (OR 0.99 per year, p = 0.004) and C-peptide <50 pM (OR 0.58, p < 0.001) were associated with a lower likelihood of meeting this target. Low C-peptide (<50 pM) was less likely in men (OR 0.55, p < 0.001) and never smokers (0.44, p < 0.001) in multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Lower levels of deprivation, non-smoking, higher C-peptide, technology use, lower BMI and male gender were all associated with a higher likelihood of meeting HbA1c targets. Access to proven diabetes treatments is lower in the most deprived individuals. Urgent efforts are required to provide treatments which are effective across the socioeconomic gradient.

Impact of routine clinic measurement of serum C-peptide in people with a clinician-diagnosis of type 1 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to determine the impact of the routine use of serum C-peptide in an out-patient clinic setting on individuals with a clinician-diagnosis of type 1 diabetes. METHODS: In this single-centre study, individuals with type 1 diabetes of at least 3 years duration were offered random serum C-peptide testing at routine clinic review. A C-peptide ≥200 pmol/L prompted further evaluation of the individual using a diagnostic algorithm that included measurement of islet cell antibodies and genetic testing. Where appropriate, a trial of anti-diabetic co-therapies was considered. RESULTS: Serum C-peptide testing was performed in 859 individuals (90% of the eligible cohort), of whom 114 (13.2%) had C-peptide ≥200 pmol/L. The cause of diabetes was reclassified in 58 individuals (6.8% of the tested cohort). The majority of reclassifications were to type 2 diabetes (44 individuals; 5.1%), with a smaller proportion of monogenic diabetes (14 individuals; 1.6%). Overall, 13 individuals (1.5%) successfully discontinued insulin, while a further 16 individuals (1.9%) had improved glycaemic control following the addition of co-therapies. The estimated total cost of the testing programme was £23,262 (~€26,053), that is, £27 (~€30) per individual tested. In current terms, the cost of prior insulin therapy in the individuals with monogenic diabetes who successfully stopped insulin was approximately £57,000 (~€64,000). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Serum C-peptide testing can easily be incorporated into an out-patient clinic setting and could be a cost-effective intervention. C-peptide testing should be strongly considered in individuals with a clinician-diagnosis of type 1 diabetes of at least 3 years duration.

The top 10 research priorities in diabetes and pregnancy according to women, support networks and healthcare professionals.

AIMS: To undertake a Priority Setting Partnership (PSP) to establish priorities for future research in diabetes and pregnancy, according to women with experience of pregnancy, and planning pregnancy, with any type of diabetes, their support networks and healthcare professionals. METHODS: The PSP used established James Lind Alliance (JLA) methodology working with women and their support networks and healthcare professionals UK-wide. Unanswered questions about the time before, during or after pregnancy with any type of diabetes were identified using an online survey and broad-level literature search. A second survey identified a shortlist of questions for final prioritisation at an online consensus development workshop. RESULTS: There were 466 responses (32% healthcare professionals) to the initial survey, with 1161 questions, which were aggregated into 60 unanswered questions. There were 614 responses (20% healthcare professionals) to the second survey and 18 questions shortlisted for ranking at the workshop. The top 10 questions were: diabetes technology, the best test for diabetes during pregnancy, diet and lifestyle interventions for diabetes management during pregnancy, emotional and well-being needs of women with diabetes pre- to post-pregnancy, safe full-term birth, post-natal care and support needs of women, diagnosis and management late in pregnancy, prevention of other types of diabetes in women with gestational diabetes, women's labour and birth experiences and choices and improving planning pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: These research priorities provide guidance for research funders and researchers to target research in diabetes and pregnancy that will achieve greatest value and impact.

Preserved C-peptide secretion is associated with fewer low-glucose events and lower glucose variability on flash glucose monitoring in adults with type 1 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We aimed to assess whether persistence of C-peptide secretion is associated with less glucose variability and fewer low-glucose events in adults with type 1 diabetes who use flash monitoring. METHODS: We performed a cross-sectional study of 290 adults attending a university teaching hospital diabetes clinic, with type 1 diabetes, who use flash monitoring and in whom a random plasma C-peptide was available in the past 2 years. Variables relating to flash monitoring were compared between individuals with low C-peptide (<10 pmol/l) and those with persistent C-peptide (either 10-200 pmol/l or 10-50 pmol/l). In addition, the relationship between self-reported hypoglycaemia and C-peptide was assessed (n = 167). Data are median (interquartile range). RESULTS: Individuals with preserved C-peptide secretion (10-200 pmol/l) had shorter duration of diabetes (15 [9-24] vs 25 [15-34] years, p < 0.001) and older age at diagnosis (23 [14-28] vs 15 [9-25] years, p < 0.001), although current age did not differ in this cohort. Preserved C-peptide was associated with lower time with glucose <3.9 mmol/l (3% [2-6%] vs 5% [3-9%], p < 0.001), fewer low-glucose events per 2 week period (7 [4-10] vs 10 [5-16], p < 0.001), lower SD of glucose (3.8 [3.4-4.2] vs 4.1 [3.5-4.7] mmol/l, p = 0.017) and lower CV of glucose (38.0 [35.0-41.6] vs 41.8 [36.5-45.8], p < 0.001). These differences were also present in those with C-peptide 10-50 pmol/l and associations were independent of diabetes duration and estimated HbA1c in logistic regression analysis. Preserved C-peptide was also associated with lower rates of self-reported asymptomatic hypoglycaemia (8.0% vs 22.8% in the past month, p = 0.028). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Preserved C-peptide secretion is associated with fewer low-glucose events and lower glucose variability on flash monitoring. This suggests that individuals with preserved C-peptide may more safely achieve intensive glycaemic targets.

Non-invasive risk scores do not reliably identify future cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma in Type 2 diabetes: The Edinburgh type 2 diabetes study.

BACKGROUND: The incidence of cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is increased in Type 2 diabetes, primarily secondary to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). European guidelines recommend screening for NAFLD in Type 2 diabetes. American guidelines, while not advocating a screening protocol, suggest using non-invasive markers of fibrosis for risk-stratification and guiding onward referral. AIMS: To test the ability of individual fibrosis scores and the European screening algorithm to predict 11-year incident cirrhosis/HCC in an asymptomatic community cohort of older people with Type 2 diabetes. METHODS: The Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study investigated men and women with Type 2 diabetes (n = 1066, aged 60-75 at baseline). Liver markers were measured at baseline and year 1; steatosis and fibrosis markers were calculated according to independently published calculations. During 11 years of follow-up, cases of cirrhosis and HCC were identified. RESULTS: Forty-three out of 1059 participants with no baseline cirrhosis/HCC developed incident disease. All scores were significantly associated with incident liver disease by odds ratio (P < .05). The ability of the risk-stratification tools to accurately identify those who developed incident cirrhosis/HCC was poor with low-positive predictive values (5-46%) and high false-negative and -positive rates (up to 60% and 77%) respectively. When fibrosis risk scores were used in conjunction with the European algorithm, they performed modestly better than when applied in isolation. CONCLUSIONS: In a cohort with a moderately low incidence of cirrhosis/HCC, existing risk scores did not reliably identify participants at high risk. Better prediction models for cirrhosis/HCC in people with Type 2 diabetes are required.

Validated criteria for the interpretation of a single measurement of serum cortisol in the investigation of suspected adrenal insufficiency.

OBJECTIVE: The diagnostic value of a single measurement of serum cortisol as a first step in the investigation of suspected adrenal insufficiency remains unclear. Previously proposed criteria have not been validated, and little is known regarding the performance of the test outwith morning samples in outpatients. We aimed to identify and validate criteria for morning and afternoon serum cortisol which could be used to determine which individuals require dynamic testing, in both outpatient and medical inpatient settings. METHODS: We performed a retrospective analysis of 2768 patients attending endocrinology clinics and patients admitted to general medical units in two hospitals in Edinburgh, UK. In baseline samples from the short synacthen test, thresholds which identified a subnormal-stimulated serum cortisol (<430 nmol/L using the Abbott Architect assay) with 95% sensitivity were identified. Criteria drawn from data in patients attending outpatient clinics in one hospital were tested in additional outpatient and inpatient validation cohorts. RESULTS: A morning (8 am-12 pm) serum cortisol of <275 nmol/L identified subnormal-stimulated cortisol with 96.2% sensitivity. For afternoon (12 pm-6 pm) samples, a cut-off of <250 nmol/L achieved 96.1% sensitivity. Sensitivity was maintained when the criteria were applied to outpatients in the validation cohort for both morning and afternoon samples. For inpatients, the test was sufficiently sensitive in morning samples only. CONCLUSIONS: A single measurement of serum cortisol carries the potential to significantly reduce the need for dynamic testing in the investigation of adrenal insufficiency, whether this is taken in morning or afternoon outpatient clinics, or in morning samples from medical inpatients.

Predicting outcomes and complications following radioiodine therapy in Graves' thyrotoxicosis.

OBJECTIVE: Radioiodine (RAI) is an effective treatment for Graves' thyrotoxicosis but is associated with a failure rate of 15% and may be a risk factor for thyroid eye disease (TED) and weight gain. We sought to examine predictors of RAI failure, weight gain, TED and patient satisfaction. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. PATIENTS: A total of 655 episodes of RAI in Graves' thyrotoxicosis patients (2006-2015). MEASUREMENTS: Biochemical assessment, including TFTs and thyrotropin receptor antibodies (TRAb), clinical features (eg, TED, weight and thionamide use) and patient questionnaire. RESULTS: The treatment failure rate was 17%. Failure was greater with higher fT4 (P = 0.002) and higher TRAb (P = 0.004). Failure rate was 42.2% when TRAb >40 U/L. Median weight gain was 3.2 kg in those with normal fT4 prior to RAI and 5.8 kg when fT4 was elevated (P < 0.001). New TED developed in 7.6% but was not associated with post-RAI dysthyroidism. Treatment satisfaction was generally high (median response 8/10). CONCLUSIONS: Treatment failure after RAI occurs in predictable groups and this should be reflected in the information provided to patients. Weight gain is common and may not entirely be explained by a return to pre-thyrotoxic baseline. We were unable to detect any significant impact of post-RAI dysthyroidism on weight gain, TED or thyroid symptoms in this large cohort.

Cardiovascular disease biomarkers are associated with declining renal function in type 2 diabetes.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We investigated whether biochemical cardiovascular risk factors and/or markers of subclinical cardiovascular disease were associated with the development of reduced renal function in people with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: A cohort of 1066 Scottish men and women aged 60-74 years with type 2 diabetes from the Edinburgh Type 2 Diabetes Study were followed up for a median of 6.7 years. New-onset reduced renal function was defined as two eGFRs <60 ml-1 min-1 (1.73 m)-2 at least 3 months apart with a > 25% decline from baseline eGFR. Ankle brachial pressure index (ABI), N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT) were measured at baseline. Pulse wave velocity (PWV) and carotid intima media thickness were measured 1 year into follow-up. Data were analysed using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: A total of 119 participants developed reduced renal function during follow-up. ABI, PWV, NT-proBNP and hsTnT were all associated with onset of decline in renal function following adjustment for age and sex. These associations were attenuated after adjustment for additional diabetes renal disease risk factors (systolic BP, baseline eGFR, albumin:creatinine ratio and smoking pack-years), with the exception of hsTnT which remained independently associated (HR 1.51 [95% CI 1.22, 1.87]). Inclusion of hsTnT in a predictive model improved the continuous net reclassification index by 0.165 (0.008, 0.286). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our findings demonstrate an association between hsTnT, a marker of subclinical cardiac ischaemia, and subsequent renal function decline. Further research is required to establish the predictive value of hsTnT and response to intervention.