Development and temporal validation of clinical prediction models for 1-year disability and pain after lumbar decompressive surgery. The Norwich Lumbar Surgery Predictor (development version).

PURPOSE: To identify clinical predictors and build prediction models for 1-year patient-reported outcomes measures (PROMs) after lumbar decompressive surgery for disc herniation or spinal stenosis. METHODS: The study included 1835 cases, with or without additional single-level fusion, from a single centre from 2008 through 2020. General linear models imputed with 37 clinical variables identified 18 significant 1-year PROM predictors for retention in development models. Interaction of surgical indication with each predictor was tested. Temporal validation was conducted at the same centre on cases through 2021. R2 was used to measure goodness-of-fit, and area under curve (AUC) used to measure classification to a satisfactory symptom state (Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) ≤ 22; back or leg pain ≤ 30 out of 100). RESULTS: A total 1228 (67%) had complete data for inclusion in model development. Predictors of ODI were baseline PROMs (ODI, back pain, leg pain), work status, condition duration, previous lumbar operation, multiple-joint osteoarthritis, female, diabetes, current smoker, rheumatic disorder, lower limb arthroplasty, mobility aided, provider status, facet cyst, scoliosis, and age, with BMI significantly associated with stenosis. Temporal validation (n = 188) found the ODI model R2 was 0.29 (95% confidence intervals (CI) 0.18-0.40) and AUC was 0.74 (95% CI 0.67-0.81). Back and leg pain models had lower R2 (0.12-0.14) and AUC (0.68-0.69) values. CONCLUSION: Important PROM predictors are baseline PROMs, specific co-morbidities, work status, condition duration, previous lumbar operation, female, and smoking status. The ODI model predicted the likelihood of achieving a satisfactory state of both disability and pain.

In-hospital complications following primary total hip and knee arthroplasty in octogenarian and nonagenarian patients.

BACKGROUND: As life expectancy of patients increases, more elderly patients are undergoing primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA). There is a general perception of increased risk of complications in elderly patients. Our objective was to analyse the incidence of in-hospital medical and surgical complications following THA and TKA in octogenarian and nonagenarians. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This was a prospective review of 202 consecutive patients aged more than 80 years who underwent total hip and total knee arthroplasty (101 THA, 101 TKA) over an 18-month period. In this single-centre observational study, collected data included patient demographics, American Society of Anethesiologists (ASA) grade, length of hospital stay and peri-operative medical and surgical complications during their hospital stay. RESULTS: Median age of patients was 83 years. Median ASA grade was 3. Mean length of hospital stay was 7.5 days. There were 14 major systemic complications in the THA group and 13 in the TKA group. While 1 major local complication occurred in each group, there were 6 minor local complications in THA and 7 in the TKA group. All the complications occurred within 5 post-operative days. There was no in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSION: In our study, we found that the incidence of peri-operative medical and surgical complications is higher in those over 80 years, compared to the published literature in patients of all age groups undergoing THA and TKA. Awareness of a higher incidence of major systemic complications should alert the treating surgeon to carry out comprehensive peri-operative management in this subset of patients, which could lead to better outcomes.

A study investigating the validity of modified Tokuhashi score to decide surgical intervention in patients with metastatic spinal cancer.

PURPOSE: Predicted survival of a patient is the most important parameter that helps to guide the treatment of a patient with metastatic spinal cancer. We aimed to investigate the reliability of modified Tokuhashi score in the decision-making process in patients with metastatic spinal cancer. METHODS: We performed a review of our prospectively collected Metastatic Cancer Database over a period of 4 years (2007-2010). Ninety consecutive patients who were treated for metastatic spinal cancer were enrolled. Data review included demographic details, source of primary cancer, duration of symptoms, location of metastases, calculated Karnofsky's performance status, and calculated survival based on modified Tokuhashi score. We divided the patients into 3 groups. Group A included patients with expected survival less than 6 months. Group B included patients with expected survival between 6 and 12 months. Group C included patients whose expected survival was more than 12 months. We compared the calculated expected survival to the actual survival in all three groups with all patients following up to a minimum of 1 year or until death. Statistical analysis was done by Chi-square test and the Fisher Exact test. RESULTS: The survival prediction in group C was significantly accurate in 80.9 % patients (P = 0.027). However, in groups A and B, only 36.1 and 9.1 % patients survived, respectively, as per predicted. (P > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: We can conclude from this study that, when used alone, modified Tokuhashi score may not be a reliable tool to predict survival in all patient groups.

Incidence and risk factors for five-year recurrent disc herniation after primary single-level lumbar discectomy.

To identify the incidence and risk factors for five-year same-site recurrent disc herniation (sRDH) after primary single-level lumbar discectomy. Secondary outcome was the incidence and risk factors for five-year sRDH reoperation. A retrospective study was conducted using prospectively collected data and patient-reported outcome measures, including the Oswestry Disability Index (ODI), between 2008 and 2019. Postoperative sRDH was identified from clinical notes and the centre's MRI database, with all imaging providers in the region checked for missing events. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate five-year sRDH incidence. Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify independent variables predictive of sRDH, with any variable not significant at the p < 0.1 level removed. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Complete baseline data capture was available for 733 of 754 (97.2%) consecutive patients. Median follow-up time for censored patients was 2.2 years (interquartile range (IQR) 1.0 to 5.0). sRDH occurred in 63 patients at a median 0.8 years (IQR 0.5 to 1.7) after surgery. The five-year Kaplan-Meier estimate for sRDH was 12.1% (95% CI 9.5 to 15.4), sRDH reoperation was 7.5% (95% CI 5.5 to 10.2), and any-procedure reoperation was 14.1% (95% CI 11.1 to 17.5). Current smoker (HR 2.12 (95% CI 1.26 to 3.56)) and higher preoperative ODI (HR 1.02 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.03)) were independent risk factors associated with sRDH. Current smoker (HR 2.15 (95% CI 1.12 to 4.09)) was an independent risk factor for sRDH reoperation. This is one of the largest series to date which has identified current smoker and higher preoperative disability as independent risk factors for sRDH. Current smoker was an independent risk factor for sRDH reoperation. These findings are important for spinal surgeons and rehabilitation specialists in risk assessment, consenting patients, and perioperative management.

Is ultrasound diagnosis reliable in acute extensor tendon injuries of the knee?

Ruptures of the patellar and quadriceps tendon are rare injuries requiring immediate repair to re-establish knee extensor continuity and allow early motion. Ultrasound is extensively used as a diagnostic tool before surgery on acute traumatic tears of the patellar tendon and quadriceps tendons. The aim of our study was to evaluate the role of sonography in diagnosing quadriceps and patellar tendon rupture and in differentiating partial from complete tears. We conducted a retrospective review of 51 consecutive patients who had a surgical intervention for suspected acute quadriceps and patellar tendon rupture over a 5-year period. Intra-operative findings were compared with pre-operative clinical examination. Radiographs, ultrasound and MRI reports were reviewed. On clinical examination, 22 patients had a suspected patellar tendon rupture and 29 patients had a suspected quadriceps tendon rupture. Diagnosis was confirmed by clinical examination and plain radiographs alone in 13 patients, with additional ultrasound performed in 24 patients and MRI scan performed in 14 patients. There were 8 false positives out of 24 [33.3%] in the ultrasound proven group and 1 false positive out of 13 [7.69%] in the clinical examination and radiographs only group. MRI was 100% accurate. We conclude that ultrasonography is not a reliable method in establishing the diagnosis of acute injuries to the extensor mechanism of the knee, particularly the quadriceps tendon ruptures in the obese and the very muscular patients. If there is clinical ambiguity, MRI scan is a better investigation tool before undertaking surgical treatment.

Nontraumatic fracture of the femoral condylar prosthesis in a total knee arthroplasty leading to mechanical failure.

This paper reports a case of fatigue fracture of the femoral component in a cruciate-retaining cemented total knee arthroplasty (TKA). A 64-year-old man had undergone a primary TKA for osteoarthritis 10 years previously at another institution using the PFC-Sigma prosthesis. The patient recovered fully and was back to his regular activities. He presented with a history of sudden onset pain and locking of the left knee since the preceding three months. There was no history of trauma, and the patient was mobilizing with difficulty using crutches. Radiographs revealed fracture of the posterior condyle of the femoral prosthesis. Revision surgery was performed as an elective procedure revealing the broken prosthesis. The TC3RP-PFC revision prosthesis was used with a medial parapatellar approach. The patient recovered fully without any squeal. Mechanical failure of the knee arthroplasty prosthesis is rare, and nontraumatic fracture of the femoral metallic component has not been reported before.

Revision of failed unicompartmental knee replacement to total knee replacement.

Recent reports suggest good outcome results following unicompartmental knee replacement (UKR). However, a number of authors have commented on the problem of osseous defects requiring technically difficult revision surgery. We reviewed clinical outcomes following revision total knee replacement (TKR) for failed UKR and analysed the reasons for failure and the technical aspects of the revision surgery. Between 2001 and 2010 our institute performed 132 UKR's out of which 33 required revision to TKR during a period 6 years. Demographics, details and indications for primary and revision surgery, the revised prosthesis including augments, technical difficulties and complications were noted. Patient outcome assessment was based on the Oxford knee score (OKS). Survival analysis for the UKR prosthesis was calculated using Kaplan-Meier Survival curves. Reasons for revision included aseptic loosening, persistent pain, dislocated meniscus, mal-alignment and other compartment osteoarthritis. Median time to revision was 19 months (range 2-159). Using revision as the end-point the survival proportion at 5-years was 69%. 18 revisions required additional intra-operative constructs including stemmed implants, wedge augmentation or bone graft. The mean 1 year post-operative OKS was 29 compared to 39 for primary TKR during the same period (p<0.001). Aseptic loosening was the commonest mode of failure. UKR survivorship at a non-specialist institute is considerably lower than at originating centres. Two thirds of the revisions were technically difficult and required additional constructs. The clinical outcome after revision surgery was inferior to that of primary TKR. The role of UKR needs to be more clearly defined.