MORTALITY OF PATIENTS WITH UVEAL MELANOMA DETECTED BY DIABETIC RETINOPATHY SCREENING.

PURPOSE: To investigate whether early detection and treatment of uveal melanoma by screening was associated with a lower mortality rate. METHODS: Retrospective assessment of prospectively collected data comparing 132 patients with uveal melanoma referred by the National Diabetic Screening Service with 608 control patients referred through other means. RESULTS: Mean tumor diameter was smaller in the diabetic screening group (11.1 mm vs. 12.5 mm) as was tumor thickness (3.4 mm vs. 5.4 mm). The prevalence of high-risk monosomy 3 was also lower (17/40, 43% vs. 62/110, 56%). Despite a higher rate of systemic comorbidities in the patients diagnosed through screening and despite older age at diagnosis, the 5-year all-cause mortality was similar in both groups (17% vs. 20%); however, the metastatic mortality was lower in the diabetic screening group (11/132, 8% vs. 95/608, 16%). CONCLUSION: Despite higher rates of comorbidities, the patients detected at diabetic screening had a lower 5-year mortality rate. The diabetic screening programme enabled detection and treatment of posterior uveal melanomas at an earlier stage. However, the confounding factors of lead and length time bias are not to be ignored.

Variations in the anatomy of the vertebral artery cervical loop segment - a potential predisposing factor for traumatic basal subarachnoid hemorrhage?

Fatal traumatic basal subarachnoid hemorrhage (TBSAH) is a characteristic forensic pathological entity, the investigation of which requires special techniques. In Liverpool, post-mortem room angiography is undertaken, followed by complete removal of the vertebral arteries and histological examination. It has been observed that the arterial anatomy can be highly variable, particularly the length and course of the loop segments located between the C2 vertebra and the dura. In a number of cases of TBSAH the loop segments of torn vessels have appeared relatively short. Having observed this phenomenon subjectively in our case work, a radiological study was undertaken with the aim of quantifying vertebral artery loop anatomy variation in a 'normal' population. Multiphase post-mortem computed tomography angiography (MPMCTA) scans of 98 subjects were reviewed and the lengths of the different portions of the loop segments (foramen magnum to the upper border of C1, between C1 and C2, and the bony foramina themselves) of each vertebral artery were measured using semi-automated vessel analysis software. The measurements obtained provide objective evidence of marked anatomical variation, with some loop segments more than twice the length of others. These results are important because a short vertebral artery loop segment might be a significant factor in predisposing an individual to TBSAH following a blow to the head or neck.

Cluster analysis of multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification data in choroidal melanoma.

PURPOSE: To determine underlying correlations in multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) data and their significance regarding survival following treatment of choroidal melanoma (CM). METHODS: MLPA data were available for 31 loci across four chromosomes (1p, 3, 6, and 8) in tumor material obtained from 602 patients with CM treated at the Liverpool Ocular Oncology Center (LOOC) between 1993 and 2012. Data representing chromosomes 3 and 8q were analyzed in depth since their association with CM patient survival is well-known. Unsupervised k-means cluster analysis was performed to detect latent structure in the data set. Principal component analysis (PCA) was also performed to determine the intrinsic dimensionality of the data. Survival analyses of the identified clusters were performed using Kaplan-Meier (KM) and log-rank statistical tests. Correlation with largest basal tumor diameter (LTD) was investigated. RESULTS: Chromosome 3: A two-cluster (bimodal) solution was found in chromosome 3, characterized by centroids at unilaterally normal probe values and unilateral deletion. There was a large, significant difference in the survival characteristics of the two clusters (log-rank, p<0.001; 5-year survival: 80% versus 40%). Both clusters had a broad distribution in LTD, although larger tumors were characteristically in the poorer outcome group (Mann-Whitney, p<0.001). Threshold values of 0.85 for deletion and 1.15 for gain optimized the classification of the clusters. PCA showed that the first principal component (PC1) contained more than 80% of the data set variance and all of the bimodality, with uniform coefficients (0.28±0.03). Chromosome 8q: No clusters were found in chromosome 8q. Using a conventional threshold-based definition of 8q gain, and in conjunction with the chromosome 3 clusters, three prognostic groups were identified: chromosomes 3 and 8q both normal, either chromosome 3 or 8q abnormal, and both chromosomes 3 and 8q abnormal. KM analysis showed 5-year survival figures of approximately 97%, 80%, and 30% for these prognostic groups, respectively (log-rank, p<0.001). All MLPA probes within both chromosomes were significantly correlated with each other (Spearman, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Within chromosome 3, the strong correlation between the MLPA variables and the uniform coefficients from the PCA indicates a lack of evidence for a signature gene that might account for the bimodality we observed. We hypothesize that the two clusters we found correspond to binary underlying states of complete monosomy or disomy 3 and that these states are sampled by the complete ensemble of probes. Consequently, we would expect a similar pattern to emerge in higher-resolution MLPA data sets. LTD may be a significant confounding factor. Considering chromosome 8q, we found that chromosome 3 cluster membership and 8q gain as traditionally defined have an indistinguishable impact on patient outcome.

Single nucleotide polymorphism array analysis of uveal melanomas reveals that amplification of CNKSR3 is correlated with improved patient survival.

Metastatic death from uveal melanoma occurs almost exclusively with tumors showing monosomy of chromosome 3. However, approximately 5% of patients with a disomy 3 uveal melanoma develop metastases, and a further 5% of monosomy 3 uveal melanoma patients exhibit disease-free survival for >5 years. In the present study, whole-genome microarrays were used to interrogate four clinically well-defined subgroups of uveal melanoma: i) disomy 3 uveal melanoma with long-term survival; ii) metastasizing monosomy 3 uveal melanoma; iii) metastasizing disomy 3 uveal melanoma; and iv) monosomy 3 uveal melanoma with long-term survival. Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis identified that amplification of the CNKSR3 gene (log-rank, P = 0.022) with an associated increase in its protein expression (log-rank, P = 0.011) correlated with longer patient survival. Although little is known about CNKSR3, the correlation of protein expression with increased survival suggests a biological function in uveal melanoma, possibly working to limit metastatic progression of monosomy 3 uveal melanoma cells.

Deferral of Treatment for Small Choroidal Melanoma and the Risk of Metastasis: An Investigation Using the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online (LUMPO).

BACKGROUND: We estimated metastatic-death risk when the treatment of small choroidal melanomas is deferred until growth is observed. METHODS: In 24 patients with choroidal melanoma (median diameter 5.85 mm), the exponential growth rate estimated by a mixed-effects model was 4.3% per year. Using the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online v.3 (LUMPO3), we measured changes in 15-year metastatic and non-metastatic death risks according to whether the tumor is treated immediately or after observing growth 4 or 12 months later, considering age, sex, and metastasis predictors. RESULTS: In 40-year-old females with 10 mm, disomy 3 and monosomy 3 choroidal melanomas (prevalence 16%), the 15-year absolute risks of metastatic death are 4.2% and 76.6%, respectively, increasing after a 4-month delay by 0.0% and 0.2% and by 3.0% and 2.3% with tumor growth rates of 5.0% and 20.0%, respectively. With 12-month delays, these risks increase by 0.0% and 0.5% and by 1.0% and 7.1%, respectively. Increases in metastatic-death risk are less with smaller tumors and with a higher risk of non-metastatic death. CONCLUSIONS: Deferring treatment of choroidal melanomas until documentation of growth may delay iatrogenic visual loss by months or years and is associated with minimal increase in metastatic mortality, at least with small tumors with usual growth rates of up to 40% per year.

Sensitivity and Specificity of Different Prognostic Systems in Guiding Surveillance for Metastases in Uveal Melanoma.

Uveal melanoma (UM) metastasises in ~50% of patients, most frequently to the liver. Surveillance imaging can provide early detection of hepatic metastases; however, guidance regarding UM patient risk stratification for surveillance is unclear. This study compared sensitivity and specificity of four current prognostic systems, when used for risk stratification for surveillance, on patients treated at the Liverpool Ocular Oncology Centre (LOOC) between 2007-2016 (n = 1047). It found that the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online III (LUMPOIII) or Liverpool Parsimonious Model (LPM) offered greater specificity at equal levels of sensitivity than the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) system or monosomy 3 alone, and suggests guidance to achieve 95% sensitivity and 51% specificity (i.e., how to detect the same number of patients with metastases, while reducing the number of negative scans). For example, 180 scans could be safely avoided over 5 years in 200 patients using the most specific approach. LUMPOIII also offered high sensitivity and improved specificity over the AJCC in the absence of genetic information, making the result relevant to centres that do not perform genetic testing, or where such testing is inappropriate or fails. This study provides valuable information for clinical guidelines for risk stratification for surveillance in UM.

Vascular Lakes in Uveal Melanoma and Their Association With Outcome.

Purpose: Prognostic predictors in uveal melanoma (UM) consist of clinical, histomorphologic, and genetic features. Vascular lakes (VLs) are immature blood vessels within UM with unknown significance for metastatic risk. Methods: A clinically well-phenotyped cohort of 136 hematoxylin and eosin-stained slides of UM enucleation specimens were retrospectively analyzed on scanned whole-slide images. These were annotated for VL in QuPath, assessing VL number and area. Using SPSS (V27.0), the Mann-Whitney U test and Cox regression were applied to evaluate whether there was any correlation between VL number and area within the tumor (VL-TA) compared with other prognostic parameters and patient survival times. Results: UMs with monosomy 3 (M3) have significant differences in their VL numbers (P = 0.008) and VL-TA ratios (P = 0.002) compared with disomy 3-UM. Nuclear BAP1-negative (nBAP1-) UMs have significant differences in their VL-TA ratio (P = 0.002) compared to nBAP1+ UMs. Survival times of patients with UM with epithelioid-celled tumors varied depending on their VL-TA ratio (P = 0.057). Similarly, in M3-UM, significant differences in survival (P = 0.009) were seen in patients, depending on VL number. Finally, patients with UM with shorter overall survival showed significant differences in their tumor VL-TA ratios (P = 0.043) and the number of VLs present (P = 0.002) than patients with UM who had longer survival. Conclusions: Our pilot data suggest that VL-TA is an additional poor prognostic parameter in UM. Translational Relevance: Digital analysis of UM can be easily performed to assess various prognostic parameters. Our pilot study demonstrates that UM-VL could be combined with other parameters to determine metastatic risk of patients with UM.

Mantle cell lymphoma treatment options for elderly/unfit patients: A systematic review.

Mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) is a rare B-cell non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) that is aggressive and incurable with existing therapies, presenting a significant unmet clinical need. MCL occurs mainly in elderly patients with comorbidities; thus, intense treatment options including allogeneic stem cell transplantation (Allo-SCT) are not feasible. New treatment options are emerging for this elderly/unfit treatment group, we therefore conducted a systematic review to determine whether they offered an advance on the existing recommended treatment, R-CHOP. The search strategies to identify MCL therapies were designed to capture the most relevant studies from 2013 to 2020. Following preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses and population,interventions, observations and study design analysis, R-CHOP, ibrutinib and bendamustine plus rituximab (BR) were taken forward for critical and statistical analysis. All three therapies were effective in increasing the overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival of elderly/unfit patients with MCL. However, none resulted in a significant increase in OS compared to R-CHOP. In addition, R-CHOP had a better toxicity profile when compared to both ibrutinib and BR. We therefore conclude that treatment of elderly/unfit patients with MCL is still a significant unmet clinical need; and suggest that outside of the clinical trial setting, R-CHOP should remain the recommended front-line treatment for this patient group.

A Retrospective Analysis of 10 Years of Liver Surveillance Undertaken in Uveal Melanoma Patients Treated at the Supraregional "Liverpool Ocular Oncology Centre", UK.

PURPOSE: To determine liver screening frequency and modality in UM patients following primary treatment, and the characteristics of detected metastases. METHODS: A 10-year retrospective study of 615 UM patients undergoing liver surveillance in Liverpool. Information was collected from liver scan reports of these patients. RESULTS: Of 615 UM patients analyzed, there were 337 men (55%) and 278 women (45%). Median age at primary treatment was 61 years (range, 22-94). At study end, median follow-up was 5.1 years, with 375 patients (61%) alive and 240 deceased (39%). Of the deceased patients, 187 (78%) died due to metastatic UM; 24 (10%) deaths were due to other causes; and 29 (12%) patients died of unknown conditions. In total, 3854 liver scans were performed in the 615 UM patients, with a median of 6.2 scans per patient (range, 1-40). Liver MRI was most frequently performed (62.8%). In total, 229 (37%) UM patients developed metastases during the study period: 150 were detected via liver surveillance and 79 were observed post-mortem. CONCLUSIONS: Metastatic UM onset is related to the size and genetic profiles of the primary UM, and can be predicted using the model LUMPO3. Regular liver surveillance allowed for timely detection of metastases, and through metastasectomy can lead to prolongation of life in some patients.

Small High-Risk Uveal Melanomas Have a Lower Mortality Rate.

Our aim was to determine whether size impacts on the difference in metastatic mortality of genetically high-risk (monosomy 3) uveal melanomas (UM). We undertook a retrospective analysis of data from a patient cohort with genetically characterized UM. All patients treated for UM in the Liverpool Ocular Oncology Centre between 2007 and 2014, who had a prognostic genetic tumor analysis. Patients were subdivided into those with small (≤2.5 mm thickness) and large (>2.5 mm thickness) tumors. Survival analyses were performed using Gray rank statistics to calculate absolute probabilities of dying as a result of metastatic UM. The 5-year absolute risk of metastatic mortality of those with small monosomy 3 UM was significantly lower (23%) compared to the larger tumor group (50%) (p = 0.003). Small disomy 3 UM also had a lower absolute risk of metastatic mortality (0.8%) than large disomy 3 UM (6.4%) (p = 0.007). Hazard rates showed similar differences even with lead time bias correction estimates. We therefore conclude that earlier treatment of all small UM, particularly monosomy 3 UM, reduces the risk of metastatic disease and death. Our results would support molecular studies of even small UM, rather than 'watch-and-wait strategies'.

Cost-utility analysis of a decade of liver screening for metastases using the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online (LUMPO).

This paper outlines a method for cost-utility analysis of liver screening for metastases in patients with posterior uveal melanoma (UM). A semiparametric model of the cumulative incidence of onset of liver metastases was fitted to a retrospective data set of 615 subjects with clinical follow-up with respect to liver surveillance imaging and outcome. The model was internally validated via bootstrap resampling in terms of its discrimination and calibration performance. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) were derived at different time points. The discrimination performances are consistent across time. The area under the ROC curve at 5 years post treatment was 0.85 [95% CI: 0.81-0.88]. A goodness-of-fit test gives χ2(10)=5.3,p=0.9 demonstrating no evidence against the null hypothesis of zero difference between observed and expected onset of metastatic events. Results showed that at 80% sensitivity, 87% of UM patients will avoid unnecessary radiological scans. This provides potential cost savings of between £46,000 and £97,000 per year to the National Health Service assuming 600 new cases per year.

Parsimonious Models for Predicting Mortality from Choroidal Melanoma.

Purpose: To develop parsimonious models for estimating metastasis mortality in patients with choroidal melanoma for situations where use of the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online (LUMPO) or Tumor, Node, Metastasis (TNM) staging system is not possible. Methods: A backward-selection algorithm identified largest basal tumor diameter (LBTD) and chromosome 3 status (C3S) as the most informative predictors of metastatic death. We defined two prognostic models, based on LBTD with or without known C3S, that took into account competing risks of death from other causes by using the Aalen estimator. The bootstrap procedure was used to estimate discrimination accuracy, expressed by the C-index. Results: The cohort was comprised of 8348 patients with choroidal melanoma, 4174 of whom had known chromosome 3 status; of the 1553 deaths that occurred among these patients, 956 were attributed to metastasis. For LBTD with or without known C3S, the metastatic-death-specific C-indices at 2, 5, and 10 years were 0.85, 0.85, and 0.84 and 0.79, 0.77, and 0.74, respectively, as compared with 0.81, 0.79, and 0.76 for Kaplan-Meier prognostication using the 8th edition of the TNM staging system. Conclusions: We have developed parsimonious models for predicting the absolute risks of metastatic death from choroidal melanoma that take into account competing causes of death and which compare favorably with the current version of the TNM staging system. There is a need for further studies to validate the use of these models in situations where use of the TNM or LUMPO is not possible.

Effects of plaque brachytherapy and proton beam radiotherapy on prognostic testing: a comparison of uveal melanoma genotyped by microsatellite analysis.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Proton beam radiotherapy and plaque brachytherapy are commonly applied in primary uveal melanoma (UM); however, their effect on chromosome 3 classification of UM by microsatellite analysis (MSA) for prognostication purposes is unknown, where the tumour is sampled post-irradiation. This study examined the prognostic accuracy of genotyping UM biopsied before or after administration of radiotherapy, by MSA. METHODS: 407 UM patients treated at the Liverpool Ocular Oncology Centre between January 2011 to December 2017, were genotyped for chromosome 3 by MSA; 172 and 176 primary UM were sampled prior to and post irradiation, respectively. RESULTS: Genotyping by MSA was successful in 396/407 (97%) of UM samples (196 males, 211 females; median age of 61 years (range 12 to 93) at primary treatment). There was no demonstrable association between a failure of MSA to produce a chromosome 3 classification and whether radiation was performed pre-biopsy or post-biopsy with an OR of 0.96 (95% CI 0.30 to 3.00, p=0.94). There was no evidence of association (measured as HRs) between risk of metastatic death and sampling of a primary UM before administration of radiotherapy (HR 1.1 (0.49 to 2.50), p=0.81). Monosomy 3 (HR 12.0 (4.1 to 35.0), p<0.001) was significantly associated with increased risk of metastatic death. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study revealed that successful genotyping of UM using MSA is possible, irrespective of irradiation status. Moreover, we found no evidence that biopsy prior to radiotherapy increases metastatic mortality.

Targeted Next-Generation Sequencing of 117 Routine Clinical Samples Provides Further Insights into the Molecular Landscape of Uveal Melanoma.

Uveal melanoma (UM) has well-characterised somatic copy number alterations (SCNA) in chromosomes 1, 3, 6 and 8, in addition to mutations in GNAQ, GNA11, CYSLTR2, PLCB4, BAP1, SF3B1 and EIF1AX, most being linked to metastatic-risk. To gain further insight into the molecular landscape of UM, we designed a targeted next-generation sequencing (NGS) panel to detect SCNA and mutations in routine clinical UM samples. We compared hybrid-capture and amplicon-based target enrichment methods and tested a larger cohort of primary UM samples on the best performing panel. UM clinical samples processed either as fresh-frozen, formalin-fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE), small intraocular biopsies or following irradiation were successfully profiled using NGS, with hybrid capture outperforming the PCR-based enrichment methodology. We identified monosomy 3 (M3)-UM that were wild-type for BAP1 but harbored SF3B1 mutations, novel frameshift deletions in SF3B1 and EIF1AX, as well as a PLCB4 mutation outside of the hotspot on exon 20 coinciding with a GNAQ mutation in some UM. We observed samples that harboured mutations in both BAP1 and SF3B1, and SF3B1 and EIF1AX, respectively. Novel mutations were also identified in TTC28, KTN1, CSMD1 and TP53BP1. NGS can simultaneously assess SCNA and mutation data in UM, in a reliable and reproducible way, irrespective of sample type or previous processing. BAP1 and SF3B1 mutations, in addition to 8q copy number, are of added importance when determining UM patient outcome.

Multicenter External Validation of the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online: An OOG Collaborative Study.

Uveal melanoma (UM) is fatal in ~50% of patients as a result of disseminated disease. This study aims to externally validate the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online V3 (LUMPO3) to determine its reliability in predicting survival after treatment for choroidal melanoma when utilizing external data from other ocular oncology centers. Anonymized data of 1836 UM patients from seven international ocular oncology centers were analyzed with LUMPO3 to predict the 10-year survival for each patient in each external dataset. The analysts were masked to the patient outcomes. Model predictions were sent to an independent statistician to evaluate LUMPO3's performance using discrimination and calibration methods. LUMPO3's ability to discriminate between UM patients who died of metastatic UM and those who were still alive was fair-to-good, with C-statistics ranging from 0.64 to 0.85 at year 1. The pooled estimate for all external centers was 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.68 to 0.75). Agreement between observed and predicted survival probabilities was generally good given differences in case mix and survival rates between different centers. Despite the differences between the international cohorts of patients with primary UM, LUMPO3 is a valuable tool for predicting all-cause mortality in this disease when using data from external centers.

Conjunctival melanoma copy number alterations and correlation with mutation status, tumor features, and clinical outcome.

Relatively little is known about the genetic aberrations of conjunctival melanomas (CoM) and their correlation with clinical and histomorphological features as well as prognosis. The aim of this large collaborative multicenter study was to determine potential key biomarkers for metastatic risk and any druggable targets for high metastatic risk CoM. Using Affymetrix single nucleotide polymorphism genotyping arrays on 59 CoM, we detected frequent amplifications on chromosome (chr) 6p and deletions on 7q, and characterized mutation-specific copy number alterations. Deletions on chr 10q11.21-26.2, a region harboring the tumor suppressor genes, PDCD4, SUFU, NEURL1, PTEN, RASSF4, DMBT1, and C10orf90 and C10orf99, significantly correlated with metastasis (Fisher's exact, p ≤ 0.04), lymphatic invasion (Fisher's exact, p ≤ 0.02), increasing tumor thickness (Mann-Whitney, p ≤ 0.02), and BRAF mutation (Fisher's exact, p ≤ 0.05). This enhanced insight into CoM biology is a step toward identifying patients at risk of metastasis and potential therapeutic targets for systemic disease.

Artificial neural networks estimating survival probability after treatment of choroidal melanoma.

PURPOSE: To describe neural networks predicting survival from choroidal melanoma (i.e., any uveal melanoma involving choroid) and to demonstrate the value of entering age, sex, clinical stage, cytogenetic type, and histologic grade into the predictive model. DESIGN: Nonrandomized case series. PARTICIPANTS: Patients resident in mainland Britain treated by the first author for choroidal melanoma between 1984 and 2006. METHODS: A conditional hazard estimating neural network (CHENN) was trained according to the Bayesian formalism with a training set of 1780 patients and evaluated with a test set of another 874 patients. Conditional hazard estimating neural network-generated survival curves were compared with those obtained with Kaplan-Meier analyses. A second model was created with information on chromosome 3 loss, using training and test sets of 211 and 140 patients, respectively. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Comparison of CHENN survival curves with Kaplan-Meier analyses. Representative results showing all-cause survival and inferred melanoma-specific mortality, according to age, sex, clinical stage, cytogenetic type, and histologic grade. RESULTS: The predictive model plotted a survival curve with 95% credibility intervals for patients with melanoma according to relevant risk factors: age, sex, largest basal tumor diameter, ciliary body involvement, extraocular extension, tumor cell type, closed loops, mitotic rate, and chromosome 3 loss (i.e., monosomy 3). A survival curve for the age-matched general population of the same sex allowed estimation of the melanoma-related mortality. All-cause survival curves generated by the CHENN matched those produced with Kaplan-Meier analysis (Kolmogorov-Smirnov, P<0.05). In older patients, however, the estimated melanoma-related mortality was lower with the CHENN, which accounted for competing risks, unlike Kaplan-Meier analysis. Largest basal tumor diameter was most predictive of mortality in tumors showing histologic and cytogenetic features of high-grade malignancy. Ciliary body involvement and extraocular extension lost significance when cytogenetic and histologic data were included in the model. Patients with a monosomy 3 melanoma of a particular size were predicted to have shorter survival if their tumor showed epithelioid cells and closed loops. CONCLUSIONS: Estimation of survival prognosis in patients with choroidal melanoma requires multivariate assessment of age, sex, clinical tumor stage, cytogenetic melanoma type, and histologic grade of malignancy.

A web-based tool for the assessment of discrimination and calibration properties of prognostic models.

Prognostic models are developed to assist clinicians in making decisions regarding treatment and follow-up management. The accuracy of these models is often assessed either in terms of their discrimination performance or calibration but rarely both. In this paper, we describe the development of an online tool for discrimination using Harrell C index and calibration using a Hosmer-Lemeshow type analysis (http://clinengnhs.liv.ac.uk/AADP/AADP_Welcome.htm). We show examples of using the tool on real data. We highlight situations where the model performed well in terms of either discrimination or calibration but not both depending on the sample size of the test set. We conclude that prognostic models should be assessed both in terms of discrimination and calibration and that calibration analysis should be carried out numerically and graphically.