Heterogeneity of Treatment Effects in an Analysis of Pooled Individual Patient Data From Randomized Trials of Device Closure of Patent Foramen Ovale After Stroke.

Importance: Patent foramen ovale (PFO)-associated strokes comprise approximately 10% of ischemic strokes in adults aged 18 to 60 years. While device closure decreases stroke recurrence risk overall, the best treatment for any individual is often unclear. Objective: To evaluate heterogeneity of treatment effect of PFO closure on stroke recurrence based on previously developed scoring systems. Design, Setting, and Participants: Investigators for the Systematic, Collaborative, PFO Closure Evaluation (SCOPE) Consortium pooled individual patient data from all 6 randomized clinical trials that compared PFO closure plus medical therapy vs medical therapy alone in patients with PFO-associated stroke, and included a total of 3740 participants. The trials were conducted worldwide from 2000 to 2017. Exposures: PFO closure plus medical therapy vs medical therapy alone. Subgroup analyses used the Risk of Paradoxical Embolism (RoPE) Score (a 10-point scoring system in which higher scores reflect younger age and the absence of vascular risk factors) and the PFO-Associated Stroke Causal Likelihood (PASCAL) Classification System, which combines the RoPE Score with high-risk PFO features (either an atrial septal aneurysm or a large-sized shunt) to classify patients into 3 categories of causal relatedness: unlikely, possible, and probable. Main Outcomes and Measures: Ischemic stroke. Results: Over a median follow-up of 57 months (IQR, 24-64), 121 outcomes occurred in 3740 patients. The annualized incidence of stroke with medical therapy was 1.09% (95% CI, 0.88%-1.36%) and with device closure was 0.47% (95% CI, 0.35%-0.65%) (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.41 [95% CI, 0.28-0.60]). The subgroup analyses showed statistically significant interaction effects. Patients with low vs high RoPE Score had HRs of 0.61 (95% CI, 0.37-1.00) and 0.21 (95% CI, 0.11-0.42), respectively (P for interaction = .02). Patients classified as unlikely, possible, and probable using the PASCAL Classification System had HRs of 1.14 (95% CI, 0.53-2.46), 0.38 (95% CI, 0.22-0.65), and 0.10 (95% CI, 0.03-0.35), respectively (P for interaction = .003). The 2-year absolute risk reduction was -0.7% (95% CI, -4.0% to 2.6%), 2.1% (95% CI, 0.6%-3.6%), and 2.1% (95% CI, 0.9%-3.4%) in the unlikely, possible, and probable PASCAL categories, respectively. Device-associated adverse events were generally higher among patients classified as unlikely; the absolute risk increases in atrial fibrillation beyond day 45 after randomization with a device were 4.41% (95% CI, 1.02% to 7.80%), 1.53% (95% CI, 0.33% to 2.72%), and 0.65% (95% CI, -0.41% to 1.71%) in the unlikely, possible, and probable PASCAL categories, respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients aged 18 to 60 years with PFO-associated stroke, risk reduction for recurrent stroke with device closure varied across groups classified by their probabilities that the stroke was causally related to the PFO. Application of this classification system has the potential to guide individualized decision-making.

Risk of Paradoxical Embolism (RoPE)-Estimated Attributable Fraction Correlates With the Benefit of Patent Foramen Ovale Closure: An Analysis of 3 Trials.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: In patients with cryptogenic stroke and patent foramen ovale (PFO), the Risk of Paradoxical Embolism (RoPE) Score has been proposed as a method to estimate a patient-specific "PFO-attributable fraction"-the probability that a documented PFO is causally-related to the stroke, rather than an incidental finding. The objective of this research is to examine the relationship between this RoPE-estimated PFO-attributable fraction and the effect of closure in 3 randomized trials. METHODS: We pooled data from the CLOSURE-I (Evaluation of the STARFlex Septal Closure System in Patients With a Stroke and/or Transient Ischemic Attack due to Presumed Paradoxical Embolism through a Patent Foramen Ovale), RESPECT (Randomized Evaluation of Recurrent Stroke Comparing PFO Closure to Established Current Standard of Care Treatment), and PC (Clinical Trial Comparing Percutaneous Closure of Patent Foramen Ovale [PFO] Using the Amplatzer PFO Occluder With Medical Treatment in Patients With Cryptogenic Embolism) trials. We examine the treatment effect of closure in high RoPE score (≥7) versus low RoPE score (<7) patients. We also estimated the relative risk reduction associated with PFO closure across each level of the RoPE score using Cox proportional hazard analysis. We estimated a patient-specific attributable fraction using a PC trial-compatible (9-point) RoPE equation (omitting the neuroradiology variable), as well as a 2-trial analysis using the original (10-point) RoPE equation. We examined the Pearson correlation between the estimated attributable fraction and the relative risk reduction across RoPE strata. RESULTS: In the low RoPE score group (<7, n=912), the rate of recurrent strokes per 100 person-years was 1.37 in the device arm versus 1.68 in the medical arm (hazard ratio, 0.82 [0.42-1.59] P=0.56) compared with 0.30 versus 1.03 (hazard ratio, 0.31 [0.11-0.85] P=0.02) in the high RoPE score group (≥7, n=1221); treatment-by-RoPE score group interaction, P=0.12. The RoPE score estimated attributable fraction anticipated the relative risk reduction across all levels of the RoPE score, in both the 3-trial (r=0.95, P<0.001) and 2-trial (r=0.92, P<0.001) analyses. CONCLUSIONS: The RoPE score estimated attributable fraction is highly correlated to the relative risk reduction of device versus medical therapy. This observation suggests the RoPE score identifies patients with cryptogenic stroke who are likely to have a PFO that is pathogenic rather than incidental.

Long-Term Outcomes of Patent Foramen Ovale Closure or Medical Therapy after Stroke.

BACKGROUND: Whether closure of a patent foramen ovale reduces the risk of recurrence of ischemic stroke in patients who have had a cryptogenic ischemic stroke is unknown. METHODS: In a multicenter, randomized, open-label trial, with blinded adjudication of end-point events, we randomly assigned patients 18 to 60 years of age who had a patent foramen ovale (PFO) and had had a cryptogenic ischemic stroke to undergo closure of the PFO (PFO closure group) or to receive medical therapy alone (aspirin, warfarin, clopidogrel, or aspirin combined with extended-release dipyridamole; medical-therapy group). The primary efficacy end point was a composite of recurrent nonfatal ischemic stroke, fatal ischemic stroke, or early death after randomization. The results of the analysis of the primary outcome from the original trial period have been reported previously; the current analysis of data from the extended follow-up period was considered to be exploratory. RESULTS: We enrolled 980 patients (mean age, 45.9 years) at 69 sites. Patients were followed for a median of 5.9 years. Treatment exposure in the two groups was unequal (3141 patient-years in the PFO closure group vs. 2669 patient-years in the medical-therapy group), owing to a higher dropout rate in the medical-therapy group. In the intention-to-treat population, recurrent ischemic stroke occurred in 18 patients in the PFO closure group and in 28 patients in the medical-therapy group, resulting in rates of 0.58 events per 100 patient-years and 1.07 events per 100 patient-years, respectively (hazard ratio with PFO closure vs. medical therapy, 0.55; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.31 to 0.999; P=0.046 by the log-rank test). Recurrent ischemic stroke of undetermined cause occurred in 10 patients in the PFO closure group and in 23 patients in the medical-therapy group (hazard ratio, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.18 to 0.79; P=0.007). Venous thromboembolism (which comprised events of pulmonary embolism and deep-vein thrombosis) was more common in the PFO closure group than in the medical-therapy group. CONCLUSIONS: Among adults who had had a cryptogenic ischemic stroke, closure of a PFO was associated with a lower rate of recurrent ischemic strokes than medical therapy alone during extended follow-up. (Funded by St. Jude Medical; RESPECT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00465270 .).

Differences in presenting symptoms of acute stroke among young and older adults.

BACKGROUND: Prior studies demonstrated that young adults with stroke present later to medical attention, have lower initial NIHSS, and are frequently misdiagnosed as compared to older adults. We sought to assess potential differences in temporal and clinical characteristics of stroke symptoms between young (age 18-50 years) and older adults (age > 50). METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included patients age ≥ 18 years hospitalized at a comprehensive stroke center with acute ischemic stroke (AIS), transient ischemic attack (TIA), or intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Outcomes included progression of neurologic deficits over the first 24 h, fluctuation in neurologic deficits, and characterization of the triage chief complaint as typical or atypical (less specific) for stroke. Univariate analyses for baseline covariates were performed with Chi-square and Mann-Whitney U tests. Associations with the three outcomes were assessed with multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: 432 adults (73 young adults, 359 older adults) were included in the analysis. Overall, 28% demonstrated progression of neurologic deficits, 14% had fluctuating deficits, and 26% presented with symptoms considered atypical for stroke. After adjustment for demographics, stroke subtype, diabetes, admission blood pressure, and acute revascularization treatments, increased age was inversely associated with progression of deficits (OR 0.97 per year of age, 95% CI 0.95-0.98) and fluctuation in deficits (OR 0.98 per year of age, 95% CI 0.96-0.99). Hemorrhagic stroke subtype was inversely associated with fluctuation in neurologic deficits (OR 0.050, CI 0.0028-0.24). CONCLUSION: Young adults are more likely to have progression or fluctuation of neurologic deficits in acute stroke. Patients with ischemic stroke are more likely to have fluctuation in neurologic deficits.

Spontaneous Coronary Artery Dissection: Current State of the Science: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association.

Spontaneous coronary artery dissection (SCAD) has emerged as an important cause of acute coronary syndrome, myocardial infarction, and sudden death, particularly among young women and individuals with few conventional atherosclerotic risk factors. Patient-initiated research has spurred increased awareness of SCAD, and improved diagnostic capabilities and findings from large case series have led to changes in approaches to initial and long-term management and increasing evidence that SCAD not only is more common than previously believed but also must be evaluated and treated differently from atherosclerotic myocardial infarction. High rates of recurrent SCAD; its association with female sex, pregnancy, and physical and emotional stress triggers; and concurrent systemic arteriopathies, particularly fibromuscular dysplasia, highlight the differences in clinical characteristics of SCAD compared with atherosclerotic disease. Recent insights into the causes of, clinical course of, treatment options for, outcomes of, and associated conditions of SCAD and the many persistent knowledge gaps are presented.

Cost-Effectiveness of Patent Foramen Ovale Closure Versus Medical Therapy for Secondary Stroke Prevention.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Percutaneous transcatheter closure of patent foramen ovale (PFO closure) plus antiplatelet therapy has been shown to reduce the risk of recurrent stroke compared with medical therapy alone in carefully selected patients after cryptogenic stroke presumed to be from paradoxical embolism. Our objective was to determine the cost-effectiveness of PFO closure after cryptogenic stroke compared with conservative medical management from a US healthcare payer perspective. METHODS: A decision analytic Markov model estimated the 15-year cost and outcomes associated with the additional benefit of PFO closure compared with medical management alone. Model inputs were obtained from published literature, national databases, and a meta-analysis of 5 published randomized clinical trials on PFO closure. Health outcomes were measured in quality-adjusted life years (QALY). Cost-effectiveness used the incremental cost per QALY gained, whereas the net monetary benefit assumed a willingness to pay of $150 000/QALY. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses estimated the uncertainty of model results. RESULTS: At 15 years, PFO closure compared with medical therapy alone improved QALY by 0.33 at a cost saving of $3568, representing an incremental net monetary benefit of $52 761 (95% interval -$8284 to $158 910). When the meta-analysis hazard ratio for stroke was increased to the 95% interval's upper bound of 0.77, one-way sensitivity analyses suggested that PFO closure's cost-effectiveness was $458 558 per additional QALY. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis suggested cost-effectiveness in 90% of simulation runs. CONCLUSIONS: PFO closure for cryptogenic strokes in the right setting is cost-effective, producing benefit in QALYs gained and potential cost savings. However, patient selection remains vitally important as marginal declines in treatment effectiveness can dramatically affect cost-effectiveness.

Closure of Patent Foramen Ovale and Cryptogenic Stroke: Unresolved Issues.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: This review summarises the results of randomised trials comparing closure of patent foramen ovale (PFO) with antithrombotic therapy in patients with cryptogenic stroke. RECENT FINDINGS: Initially, three randomised trials failed to show superiority of PFO closure over antithrombotic therapy in patients with cryptogenic stroke. Three recently performed trials and the prolongation of an earlier trial provided evidence that PFO closure in patients with cryptogenic stroke and an age range of 18-60 years is superior to stroke prevention with antiplatelet therapy. PFO closure was not superior to anticoagulation. Anticoagulation, however, has a higher long-term bleeding risk. PFO closure could result in atrial fibrillation (AF) in a small number of patients. In most patients, AF was transient in duration. Optimal patient selection requires future research. In patients with cryptogenic stroke aged < 60 years, PFO closure is superior to antiplatelet therapy in the prevention of recurrent stroke.

Closure of patent foramen ovale versus medical therapy after cryptogenic stroke.

BACKGROUND: Whether closure of a patent foramen ovale is effective in the prevention of recurrent ischemic stroke in patients who have had a cryptogenic stroke is unknown. We conducted a trial to evaluate whether closure is superior to medical therapy alone in preventing recurrent ischemic stroke or early death in patients 18 to 60 years of age. METHODS: In this prospective, multicenter, randomized, event-driven trial, we randomly assigned patients, in a 1:1 ratio, to medical therapy alone or closure of the patent foramen ovale. The primary results of the trial were analyzed when the target of 25 primary end-point events had been observed and adjudicated. RESULTS: We enrolled 980 patients (mean age, 45.9 years) at 69 sites. The medical-therapy group received one or more antiplatelet medications (74.8%) or warfarin (25.2%). Treatment exposure between the two groups was unequal (1375 patient-years in the closure group vs. 1184 patient-years in the medical-therapy group, P=0.009) owing to a higher dropout rate in the medical-therapy group. In the intention-to-treat cohort, 9 patients in the closure group and 16 in the medical-therapy group had a recurrence of stroke (hazard ratio with closure, 0.49; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.22 to 1.11; P=0.08). The between-group difference in the rate of recurrent stroke was significant in the prespecified per-protocol cohort (6 events in the closure group vs. 14 events in the medical-therapy group; hazard ratio, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.14 to 0.96; P=0.03) and in the as-treated cohort (5 events vs. 16 events; hazard ratio, 0.27; 95% CI, 0.10 to 0.75; P=0.007). Serious adverse events occurred in 23.0% of the patients in the closure group and in 21.6% in the medical-therapy group (P=0.65). Procedure-related or device-related serious adverse events occurred in 21 of 499 patients in the closure group (4.2%), but the rate of atrial fibrillation or device thrombus was not increased. CONCLUSIONS: In the primary intention-to-treat analysis, there was no significant benefit associated with closure of a patent foramen ovale in adults who had had a cryptogenic ischemic stroke. However, closure was superior to medical therapy alone in the prespecified per-protocol and as-treated analyses, with a low rate of associated risks. (Funded by St. Jude Medical; RESPECT ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00465270.).

Anticoagulant vs. antiplatelet therapy in patients with cryptogenic stroke and patent foramen ovale: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

AIMS: The preferred antithrombotic strategy for secondary prevention in patients with cryptogenic stroke (CS) and patent foramen ovale (PFO) is unknown. We pooled multiple observational studies and used propensity score-based methods to estimate the comparative effectiveness of oral anticoagulation (OAC) compared with antiplatelet therapy (APT). METHODS AND RESULTS: Individual participant data from 12 databases of medically treated patients with CS and PFO were analysed with Cox regression models, to estimate database-specific hazard ratios (HRs) comparing OAC with APT, for both the primary composite outcome [recurrent stroke, transient ischaemic attack (TIA), or death] and stroke alone. Propensity scores were applied via inverse probability of treatment weighting to control for confounding. We synthesized database-specific HRs using random-effects meta-analysis models. This analysis included 2385 (OAC = 804 and APT = 1581) patients with 227 composite endpoints (stroke/TIA/death). The difference between OAC and APT was not statistically significant for the primary composite outcome [adjusted HR = 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.52-1.12] or for the secondary outcome of stroke alone (adjusted HR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.44-1.27). Results were consistent in analyses applying alternative weighting schemes, with the exception that OAC had a statistically significant beneficial effect on the composite outcome in analyses standardized to the patient population who actually received APT (adjusted HR = 0.64, 95% CI 0.42-0.99). Subgroup analyses did not detect statistically significant heterogeneity of treatment effects across clinically important patient groups. CONCLUSION: We did not find a statistically significant difference comparing OAC with APT; our results justify randomized trials comparing different antithrombotic approaches in these patients.

The RoPE Score and Right-to-Left Shunt Severity by Transcranial Doppler in the CODICIA Study.

BACKGROUND: For patients with cryptogenic stroke (CS) and patent foramen ovale (PFO), it is unknown whether the magnitude of right-to-left shunt (RLSh) measured by contrast transcranial Doppler (c-TCD) is correlated with the likelihood an identified PFO is related to CS as determined by the Risk of Paradoxical Embolism (RoPE) score. Additionally, for patients with CS, it is unknown whether PFO assessment by c-TCD is more sensitive for identifying RLSh compared with transesophageal echocardiography (TEE). Our aim was to determine the significance of RLSh grade by c-TCD in patients with PFO and CS. METHODS: We evaluated patients with CS who had RLSh quantified by c-TCD in the Multicenter Study into RLSh in Cryptogenic Stroke (CODICIA) to determine whether there is an association between c-TCD shunt grade and the RoPE Score. For patients who underwent c-TCD and TEE, we determined whether there is agreement in identifying and grading RLSh between these two modalities. RESULTS: The RoPE score predicted the presence versus the absence of RLSh documented by c-TCD (c-statistic = 0.66). For patients with documented RLSh by c-TCD, shunt severity was correlated with increasing RoPE score (rank correlation (r) = 0.15, p = 0.01). Among 293 patients who had both c-TCD and TEE performed, c-TCD was more sensitive (98.7%) for detecting RLSh. Of the 97 patients with no PFO identified on TEE, 28 (29%) had a large amount of RLSh seen on c-TCD. CONCLUSIONS: For patients with CS, severity of RLSh by c-TCD is positively correlated with the RoPE score, indicating that this technique for shunt grading identifies patients more likely to have pathogenic rather than incidental PFOs. c-TCD is also more sensitive in detecting RLSh than TEE. These findings suggest an important role for c-TCD in the evaluation of PFO in the setting of CS.

Cervical arterial dissections and association with cervical manipulative therapy: a statement for healthcare professionals from the american heart association/american stroke association.

PURPOSE: Cervical artery dissections (CDs) are among the most common causes of stroke in young and middle-aged adults. The aim of this scientific statement is to review the current state of evidence on the diagnosis and management of CDs and their statistical association with cervical manipulative therapy (CMT). In some forms of CMT, a high or low amplitude thrust is applied to the cervical spine by a healthcare professional. METHODS: Members of the writing group were appointed by the American Heart Association Stroke Council's Scientific Statements Oversight Committee and the American Heart Association's Manuscript Oversight Committee. Members were assigned topics relevant to their areas of expertise and reviewed appropriate literature, references to published clinical and epidemiology studies, morbidity and mortality reports, clinical and public health guidelines, authoritative statements, personal files, and expert opinion to summarize existing evidence and to indicate gaps in current knowledge. RESULTS: Patients with CD may present with unilateral headaches, posterior cervical pain, or cerebral or retinal ischemia (transient ischemic or strokes) attributable mainly to artery-artery embolism, CD cranial nerve palsies, oculosympathetic palsy, or pulsatile tinnitus. Diagnosis of CD depends on a thorough history, physical examination, and targeted ancillary investigations. Although the role of trivial trauma is debatable, mechanical forces can lead to intimal injuries of the vertebral arteries and internal carotid arteries and result in CD. Disability levels vary among CD patients with many having good outcomes, but serious neurological sequelae can occur. No evidence-based guidelines are currently available to endorse best management strategies for CDs. Antiplatelet and anticoagulant treatments are both used for prevention of local thrombus and secondary embolism. Case-control and other articles have suggested an epidemiologic association between CD, particularly vertebral artery dissection, and CMT. It is unclear whether this is due to lack of recognition of preexisting CD in these patients or due to trauma caused by CMT. Ultrasonography, computed tomographic angiography, and magnetic resonance imaging with magnetic resonance angiography are useful in the diagnosis of CD. Follow-up neuroimaging is preferentially done with noninvasive modalities, but we suggest that no single test should be seen as the gold standard. CONCLUSIONS: CD is an important cause of ischemic stroke in young and middle-aged patients. CD is most prevalent in the upper cervical spine and can involve the internal carotid artery or vertebral artery. Although current biomechanical evidence is insufficient to establish the claim that CMT causes CD, clinical reports suggest that mechanical forces play a role in a considerable number of CDs and most population controlled studies have found an association between CMT and VAD stroke in young patients. Although the incidence of CMT-associated CD in patients who have previously received CMT is not well established, and probably low, practitioners should strongly consider the possibility of CD as a presenting symptom, and patients should be informed of the statistical association between CD and CMT prior to undergoing manipulation of the cervical spine.

Association of ischemic stroke, hormone therapy, and right to left shunt in postmenopausal women.

BACKGROUND: Postmenopausal hormone therapy (HT) increases the risk of venous thrombosis and ischemic stroke. OBJECTIVES: We postulated that HT might increase the risk of ischemic stroke by promoting venous clots that travel to the brain through a right to left shunt (RLS). METHODS: A total of 2,389 records were studied. After eliminating the premenopausal patients, and those with TIAs and non-ischemic strokes, the medical records of 1846 postmenopausal women hospitalized at four institutions for ischemic stroke were reviewed to identify those who had undergone an adequate study to assess for RLS. The proportion of women with a shunt in users and non-users of HT was compared in stroke patients and in a reference population consisting of postmenopausal women undergoing elective cardiac catheterization. RESULTS: There were 363 (20%) records that had complete data and were included in the analysis. A shunt was more prevalent in patients with a cryptogenic stroke than in patients with a stroke of known cause (55/88 (63%) vs. 53/275 (19%), P < 0.001). In patients with a stroke of known cause, the frequency of a shunt was similar to that in reference women 31/136 (23%), and the proportion of women with a shunt was similar in non-users and current users of HT (14% vs. 20%, P = 0.40). However, among patients with a cryptogenic stroke, the prevalence of a shunt was 1.5 times higher in current users than non-users of HT (82% vs. 56%, P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: Approximately 23% of older women have a RLS. HT in these women may increase the risk of ischemic stroke by promoting paradoxical embolism.

Asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis treated with medical therapy alone: temporal trends and implications for risk assessment and the design of future studies.

BACKGROUND: The rate of adverse clinical outcomes among patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis receiving medical therapy alone can be used to guide clinical decision-making and to inform future research. We aimed to investigate temporal changes in the incidence rate of clinical outcomes among patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis receiving medical therapy alone and to explore the implications of these changes for the design of future comparative studies. SUMMARY: We searched MEDLINE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, US Food and Drug Administration documents, and reference lists of included studies (last search: December 31, 2012). We selected prospective cohort studies of medical therapy for asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis and we extracted information on study characteristics, risk of bias, and outcomes. We performed meta-analyses to estimate summary incidence rates, meta-regressions to assess trends over time, and simulations to explore sample size requirements for the design of future studies comparing new treatments against medical therapy. The main outcomes of interest were ipsilateral stroke, any stroke, cardiovascular death, death, and myocardial infarction. We identified 41 studies of medical therapy for patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis (last recruitment year: 1978-2009). The summary incidence rate of ipsilateral carotid territory stroke (25 studies) was 1.7 per 100 person-years. This incidence rate was significantly lower in recent studies (last recruitment year from 2000 onwards) as compared to studies that ended recruitment earlier (1.0 vs. 2.3 events per 100 person-years; p < 0.001). The incidence rates of any territory stroke (17 studies), cardiovascular death (6 studies), death (13 studies), and myocardial infarction (5 studies) were 2.7, 4.1, 4.6, and 1.8 per 100 person-years, respectively. Simulations showed that future studies would need to enroll large numbers of patients with a relatively high incidence rate under medical therapy, and evaluate interventions with large effect sizes, to have adequate power to reliably detect treatment effects. KEY MESSAGES: Improved prognosis under medical therapy alone has narrowed the potential range of risk reduction attainable with new treatments for asymptomatic carotid stenosis. Future comparative studies will need to enroll large numbers of patients to assess treatment effectiveness.

Management strategies for asymptomatic carotid stenosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Adults with asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis are at increased risk for ipsilateral carotid territory ischemic stroke. PURPOSE: To examine comparative evidence on management strategies for asymptomatic carotid stenosis and the incidence of ipsilateral stroke with medical therapy alone. DATA SOURCES: MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, U.S. Food and Drug Administration documents, and review of references through 31 December 2012. STUDY SELECTION: Randomized, controlled trials (RCTs) and prospective or retrospective nonrandomized, comparative studies of medical therapy alone, carotid endarterectomy (CEA) plus medical therapy, or carotid artery stenting (CAS) plus medical therapy for adults with asymptomatic carotid stenosis, as well as single-group prospective cohort studies of medical therapy, were reviewed. DATA EXTRACTION: Two investigators extracted information on study and population characteristics, results, and risk of bias. DATA SYNTHESIS: Forty-seven studies in 56 publications were eligible. The RCTs comparing CAS and CEA were clinically heterogeneous; 1 RCT reported more but not statistically significant ipsilateral stroke events (including any periprocedural stroke) in CAS compared with CEA, whereas another RCT, in a population at high surgical risk for CEA, did not. Three RCTs showed that CEA reduced the risk for ipsilateral stroke (including any periprocedural stroke) compared with medical therapy alone, but these results may no longer be applicable to contemporary clinical practice. No RCT compared CAS versus medical therapy alone. The summary incidence of ipsilateral stroke across 26 cohorts receiving medical therapy alone was 1.68% per year. LIMITATIONS: Studies defined asymptomatic status heterogeneously. Participants in RCTs did not receive best-available medical therapy. CONCLUSION: Future RCTs of asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis should explore whether revascularization interventions provide benefit to patients treated by best-available medical therapy. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality.

Case misclassification in studies of spinal manipulation and arterial dissection.

BACKGROUND: Spinal manipulation has been associated with cervical arterial dissection and stroke but a causal relationship has been questioned by population-based studies. Earlier studies identified cases using International Classification of Diseases Ninth Revision (ICD-9) codes specific to anatomic stroke location rather than stroke etiology. We hypothesize that case misclassification occurred in these previous studies and an underestimation of the strength of the association. We also predicted that case misclassification would differ by patient age. METHODS: We identified cases in the Veterans Health Administration database using the same strategy as the prior studies. The electronic medical record was then screened for the word "dissection." The presence of atraumatic dissection was determined by medical record review by a neurologist. RESULTS: Of 3690 patients found by ICD-9 codes over a 30-month period, 414 (11.2%) had confirmed cervical artery dissection with a positive predictive value of 10.5% (95% confidence interval [CI] 9.6%-11.5%). The positive predictive value was higher in patients less than 45 years of age vs 45 years of age or older (41% vs 9%, P < .001). We reanalyzed a previous study, which reported no association between spinal manipulation and cervical artery dissection (odds ratio [OR] = 1.12, 95% CI .77-1.63) and recalculated an odds ratio of 2.15 (95% CI .98-4.69). For patients less than 45 years of age, the OR was 6.91 (95% CI 2.59-13.74). CONCLUSIONS: Prior studies grossly misclassified cases of cervical dissection and mistakenly dismissed a causal association with manipulation. Our study indicates that the OR for spinal manipulation exposure in cervical artery dissection is higher than previously reported.

Patent Foramen Ovale Closure in Older Patients With Stroke: Patient Selection for Trial Feasibility.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Whether patent foramen ovale (PFO) closure benefits older patients with PFO and cryptogenic stroke is unknown because randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have predominantly enrolled patients younger than 60 years of age. Our objective was to estimate anticipated effects of PFO closure in older patients to predict the numbers needed to plan an RCT. METHODS: Effectiveness estimates are derived from major observational studies (Risk of Paradoxical Embolism [RoPE] Study and Oxford Vascular Study, together referred to as the "RoPE-Ox" database) and all 6 major RCTs (Systematic, Collaborative, PFO Closure Evaluation [SCOPE] Consortium). To estimate stroke recurrence risk, observed outcomes were calculated for patients older than 60 years in the age-inclusive observational databases (n = 549). To estimate the reduction in the rate of recurrent stroke associated with PFO closure vs medical therapy based on the RoPE score and the presence of high-risk PFO features, a Cox proportional hazards regression model was developed on the RCT data in the SCOPE database (n = 3,740). These estimates were used to calculate sample sizes required for a future RCT. RESULTS: Five-year risk of stroke recurrence using Kaplan-Meier estimates was 13.7 (95% CI 10.5-17.9) overall, 14.9% (95% CI 10.2-21.6) in those with high-risk PFO features. Predicted relative reduction in the event rate with PFO closure was 12.9% overall, 48.8% in those with a high-risk PFO feature. Using these estimates, enrolling all older patients with cryptogenic stroke and PFO would require much larger samples than those used for prior PFO closure trials, but selectively enrolling patients with high-risk PFO features would require totals of 630 patients for 90% power and 471 patients for 80% power, with an average of 5 years of follow-up. DISCUSSION: Based on our projections, anticipated effect sizes in older patients with high-risk features make a trial in these subjects feasible. With lengthening life expectancy in almost all regions of the world, the utility of PFO closure in older adults is increasingly important to explore.

Neuroimaging findings in cryptogenic stroke patients with and without patent foramen ovale.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Patent foramen ovale (PFO) and cryptogenic stroke are commonly associated but some PFOs are incidental. Specific radiological findings associated with PFO may be more likely to indicate a PFO-related cause. We examined whether specific radiological findings are associated with PFO among subjects with cryptogenic stroke and known PFO status. METHODS: We analyzed the Risk of Paradoxical Embolism(RoPE) Study database of subjects with cryptogenic stroke and known PFO status, for associations between PFO and: (1) index stroke seen on imaging, (2) index stroke size, (3) index stroke location, (4) multiple index strokes, and (5) prior stroke on baseline imaging. We also compared imaging with purported high-risk echocardiographic features. RESULTS: Subjects (N=2680) were significantly more likely to have a PFO if their index stroke was large (odds ratio [OR], 1.36; P=0.0025), seen on index imaging (OR, 1.53; P=0.003), and superficially located (OR, 1.54; P<0.0001). A prior stroke on baseline imaging was associated with not having a PFO (OR, 0.66; P<0.0001). Finding multiple index strokes was unrelated to PFO status (OR, 1.21; P=0.161). No echocardiographic variables were related to PFO status. CONCLUSIONS: This is the largest study to report the radiological characteristics of patients with cryptogenic stroke and known PFO status. Strokes that were large, radiologically apparent, superficially located, or unassociated with prior radiological infarcts were more likely to be PFO-associated than were unapparent, smaller, or deep strokes, and those accompanied by chronic infarcts. There was no association between PFO and multiple acute strokes nor between specific echocardiographic PFO features with neuroimaging findings.

Patent foramen ovale closure and medical treatments for secondary stroke prevention: a systematic review of observational and randomized evidence.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Patients discovered to have a patent foramen ovale in the setting of a cryptogenic stroke may be treated with percutaneous closure, antiplatelet therapy, or anticoagulants. A recent randomized trial (CLOSURE I) did not detect any benefit of closure over medical treatment alone; the optimal medical therapy is also unknown. We synthesized the available evidence on secondary stroke prevention in patients with patent foramen ovale and cryptogenic stroke. METHODS: A MEDLINE search was performed for finding longitudinal studies investigating medical treatment or closure, meta-analysis of incidence rates (IR), and IR ratios of recurrent cerebrovascular events. RESULTS: Fifty-two single-arm studies and 7 comparative nonrandomized studies and the CLOSURE I trial were reviewed. The summary IR of recurrent stroke was 0.36 events (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.24-0.56) per 100 person-years with closure versus 2.53 events (95% CI, 1.91-3.35) per 100 person-years with medical therapy. In comparative observational studies, closure was superior to medical therapy (IR ratio=0.19; 95% CI, 0.07-0.54). The IR for the closure arm of the CLOSURE I trial was higher than the summary estimate from observational studies; there was no significant benefit of closure over medical treatment (P=0.002 comparing efficacy estimates between observational studies and the trial). Observational and randomized data (9 studies) comparing medical therapies were consistent and suggested that anticoagulants are superior to antiplatelets for preventing stroke recurrence (IR ratio=0.42; 95% CI, 0.18-0.98). CONCLUSIONS: Although further randomized trial data are needed to precisely determine the effects of closure on stroke recurrence, the results of CLOSURE I challenge the credibility of a substantial body of observational evidence strongly favoring mechanical closure over medical therapy.