Correlates of seasonal change in the body condition of an Arctic top predator.

Climate-driven sea ice loss has led to changes in the timing of key biological events in the Arctic, however, the consequences and rate of these changes remain largely unknown. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) undergo seasonal changes in energy stores in relation to foraging opportunities and habitat conditions. Declining sea ice has been linked to reduced body condition in some subpopulations, however, the specific timing and duration of the feeding period when bears acquire most of their energy stores and its relationship to the timing of ice break-up is poorly understood. We used community-based sampling to investigate seasonality in body condition (energy stores) of polar bears in Nunavut, Canada, and examined the influence of sea ice variables. We used adipose tissue lipid content as an index of body condition for 1,206 polar bears harvested from 2010-2017 across five subpopulations with varying seasonal ice conditions: Baffin Bay (October-August), Davis Strait and Foxe Basin (year-round), Gulf of Boothia and Lancaster Sound (August-May). Similar seasonal patterns were found in body condition across subpopulations with bears at their nadir of condition in the spring, followed by fat accumulation past break-up date and subsequent peak body condition in autumn, indicating that bears are actively foraging in late spring and early summer. Late season feeding implies that even minor advances in the timing of break-up may have detrimental effects on foraging opportunities, body condition, and subsequent reproduction and survival. The magnitude of seasonal changes in body condition varied across the study area, presumably driven by local environmental conditions. Our results demonstrate how community-based monitoring of polar bears can reveal population-level responses to climate warming in advance of detectable demographic change. Our data on the seasonal timing of polar bear foraging and energy storage should inform predictive models of the effects of climate-mediated sea ice loss.

Contrasting Temporal Patterns of Mercury, Niche Dynamics, and Body Fat Indices of Polar Bears and Ringed Seals in a Melting Icescape.

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and ringed seals (Pusa hispida) have a strong predator-prey relationship and are facing climate-associated Arctic habitat loss and harmful dietary exposure to total mercury (THg) and other pollutants. However, little is known about whether both species inhabiting the same area exhibit similar temporal patterns in Hg concentration, niche dynamics, and body fat indices. We used THg, δ13C, and δ15N values of western Hudson Bay polar bear hair (2004-2016) and ringed seal muscle samples (2003-2015) to investigate temporal trends of these variables and multidimensional niche metrics, as well as body fat indices for both species. We found a decline in THg concentration (by 3.8% per year) and δ13C (by 1.5‰) in ringed seals suggesting a change in feeding habits and carbon source use over time, whereas no significant changes occurred in polar bears. In contrast, the polar bear 3-dimensional niche size decreased by nearly half with no change in ringed seal niche size. The δ13C spacing between both species increased by approximately 1.5× suggesting different responses to annual changes in sympagic-pelagic carbon source production. Ringed seal body fat index was higher in years of earlier sea ice breakup with no change occurring in polar bears. These findings indicate that both species are responding differently to a changing environment suggesting a possible weakening of their predator-prey relationship in western Hudson Bay.

Drivers and consequences of apex predator diet composition in the Canadian Beaufort Sea.

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) rely on annual sea ice as their primary habitat for hunting marine mammal prey. Given their long lifespan, wide geographic distribution, and position at the top of the Arctic marine food web, the diet composition of polar bears can provide insights into temporal and spatial ecosystem dynamics related to climate-mediated sea ice loss. Polar bears with the greatest ecological constraints on diet composition may be most vulnerable to climate-related changes in ice conditions and prey availability. We used quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) to estimate the diets of polar bears (n = 419) in two western Canadian Arctic subpopulations (Northern Beaufort Sea and Southern Beaufort Sea) from 1999 to 2015. Polar bear diets were dominated by ringed seal (Pusa hispida), with interannual, seasonal, age- and sex-specific variation. Foraging area and sea ice conditions also affected polar bear diet composition. Most variation in bear diet was explained by longitude, reflecting spatial variation in prey availability. Sea ice conditions (extent, thickness, and seasonal duration) declined throughout the study period, and date of sea ice break-up in the preceding spring was positively correlated with female body condition and consumption of beluga whale (Delphinapterus leucas), suggesting that bears foraged on beluga whales during entrapment events. Female body condition was positively correlated with ringed seal consumption, and negatively correlated with bearded seal consumption. This study provides insights into the complex relationships between declining sea ice habitat and the diet composition and foraging success of a wide-ranging apex predator.

Conservation status of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) in relation to projected sea-ice declines.

Loss of Arctic sea ice owing to climate change is the primary threat to polar bears throughout their range. We evaluated the potential response of polar bears to sea-ice declines by (i) calculating generation length (GL) for the species, which determines the timeframe for conservation assessments; (ii) developing a standardized sea-ice metric representing important habitat; and (iii) using statistical models and computer simulation to project changes in the global population under three approaches relating polar bear abundance to sea ice. Mean GL was 11.5 years. Ice-covered days declined in all subpopulation areas during 1979-2014 (median -1.26 days year-1). The estimated probabilities that reductions in the mean global population size of polar bears will be greater than 30%, 50% and 80% over three generations (35-41 years) were 0.71 (range 0.20-0.95), 0.07 (range 0-0.35) and less than 0.01 (range 0-0.02), respectively. According to IUCN Red List reduction thresholds, which provide a common measure of extinction risk across taxa, these results are consistent with listing the species as vulnerable. Our findings support the potential for large declines in polar bear numbers owing to sea-ice loss, and highlight near-term uncertainty in statistical projections as well as the sensitivity of projections to different plausible assumptions.

Variation in the response of an Arctic top predator experiencing habitat loss: feeding and reproductive ecology of two polar bear populations.

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have experienced substantial changes in the seasonal availability of sea ice habitat in parts of their range, including the Beaufort, Chukchi, and Bering Seas. In this study, we compared the body size, condition, and recruitment of polar bears captured in the Chukchi and Bering Seas (CS) between two periods (1986-1994 and 2008-2011) when declines in sea ice habitat occurred. In addition, we compared metrics for the CS population 2008-2011 with those of the adjacent southern Beaufort Sea (SB) population where loss in sea ice habitat has been associated with declines in body condition, size, recruitment, and survival. We evaluated how variation in body condition and recruitment were related to feeding ecology. Comparing habitat conditions between populations, there were twice as many reduced ice days over continental shelf waters per year during 2008-2011 in the SB than in the CS. CS polar bears were larger and in better condition, and appeared to have higher reproduction than SB bears. Although SB and CS bears had similar diets, twice as many bears were fasting in spring in the SB than in the CS. Between 1986-1994 and 2008-2011, body size, condition, and recruitment indices in the CS were not reduced despite a 44-day increase in the number of reduced ice days. Bears in the CS exhibited large body size, good body condition, and high indices of recruitment compared to most other populations measured to date. Higher biological productivity and prey availability in the CS relative to the SB, and a shorter recent history of reduced sea ice habitat, may explain the maintenance of condition and recruitment of CS bears. Geographic differences in the response of polar bears to climate change are relevant to range-wide forecasts for this and other ice-dependent species.

Telemetry without collars: performance of fur- and ear-mounted satellite tags for evaluating the movement and behaviour of polar bears.

The study of animal movement provides insights into underlying ecological processes and informs analyses of behaviour and resource use, which have implications for species management and conservation. The tools used to study animal movement have evolved over the past decades, allowing for data collection from a variety of species, including those living in remote environments. Satellite-linked radio and GPS collars have been used to study polar bear (Ursus maritimus) ecology and movements throughout the circumpolar Arctic for over 50 years. However, due to morphology and growth constraints, only adult female polar bears can be reliably collared. Collars have proven to be safe, but there has been opposition to their use, resulting in a deficiency in data across much of the species' range. To bolster knowledge of movement characteristics and behaviours for polar bears other than adult females, while also providing an alternative to collars, we tested the use of fur- and ear-mounted telemetry tags that can be affixed to polar bears of any sex and age. We tested three fur tag designs (SeaTrkr, tribrush and pentagon tags), which we affixed to 15 adult and 1 subadult male polar bears along the coast of Hudson Bay during August-September 2021-2022. Fur tags were compared with ear tags deployed on 42 subadult and adult male polar bears captured on the coast or the sea ice between 2016 and 2022. We used data from the tags to quantify the amount of time subadult and adult males spent resting versus traveling while on land. Our results show the three fur tag designs remained functional for shorter mean durations (SeaTrkr = 58 days; tribrush = 47 days; pentagon = 22 days) than ear tags (121 days), but positional error estimates were comparable among the Argos-equipped tags. The GPS/Iridium-equipped SeaTrkr fur tags provided higher resolution and more frequent location data. Combined, the tags provided sufficient data to model different behavioural states. Furthermore, as hypothesized, subadult and adult male polar bears spent the majority of their time resting while on land, increasing time spent traveling as temperatures cooled. Fur tags show promise as a short-term means of collecting movement data from free-ranging polar bears. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40317-024-00373-2.

Migration phenology and seasonal fidelity of an Arctic marine predator in relation to sea ice dynamics.

Understanding how seasonal environmental conditions affect the timing and distribution of synchronized animal movement patterns is a central issue in animal ecology. Migration, a behavioural adaptation to seasonal environmental fluctuations, is a fundamental part of the life history of numerous species. However, global climate change can alter the spatiotemporal distribution of resources and thus affect the seasonal movement patterns of migratory animals. We examined sea ice dynamics relative to migration patterns and seasonal geographical fidelity of an Arctic marine predator, the polar bear (Ursus maritimus). Polar bear movement patterns were quantified using satellite-linked telemetry data collected from collars deployed between 1991-1997 and 2004-2009. We showed that specific sea ice characteristics can predict the timing of seasonal polar bear migration on and off terrestrial refugia. In addition, fidelity to specific onshore regions during the ice-free period was predicted by the spatial pattern of sea ice break-up but not by the timing of break-up. The timing of migration showed a trend towards earlier arrival of polar bears on shore and later departure from land, which has been driven by climate-induced declines in the availability of sea ice. Changes to the timing of migration have resulted in polar bears spending progressively longer periods of time on land without access to sea ice and their marine mammal prey. The links between increased atmospheric temperatures, sea ice dynamics, and the migratory behaviour of an ice-dependent species emphasizes the importance of quantifying and monitoring relationships between migratory wildlife and environmental cues that may be altered by climate change.

A body composition model with multiple storage compartments for polar bears (Ursus maritimus).

Climate warming is rapidly altering Arctic ecosystems. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) need sea ice as a platform from which to hunt seals, but increased sea-ice loss is lengthening periods when bears are without access to primary hunting habitat. During periods of food scarcity, survival depends on the energy that a bear has stored in body reserves, termed storage energy, making this a key metric in predictive models assessing climate change impacts on polar bears. Here, we developed a body composition model for polar bears that estimates storage energy while accounting for changes in storage tissue composition. We used data of dissected polar bears (n = 31) to link routinely collected field measures of total body mass and straight-line body length to the body composition of individual bears, described in terms of structural mass and two storage compartments, adipose and muscle. We then estimated the masses of metabolizable proteins and lipids within these storage compartments, giving total storage energy. We tested this multi-storage model by using it to predict changes in the lipid stores from an independent dataset of wild polar bears (n = 36) that were recaptured 8-200 days later. Using length and mass measurements, our model successfully predicted direct measurements of lipid changes via isotopic dilutions (root mean squared error of 14.5 kg). Separating storage into two compartments, and allowing the molecular composition of storage to vary, provides new avenues for quantifying energy stores of individuals across their life cycle. The multi-storage body composition model thus provides a basis for further exploring energetic costs of physiological processes that contribute to individual survival and reproductive success. Given bioenergetic models are increasingly used as a tool to predict individual fitness and population dynamics, our approach for estimating individual energy stores could be applicable to a wide range of species.

Fatty acid profiles of feeding and fasting bears: estimating calibration coefficients, the timeframe of diet estimates, and selective mobilization during hibernation.

Accurate information on diet composition is central to understanding and conserving carnivore populations. Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) has emerged as a powerful tool for estimating the diets of predators, but ambiguities remain about the timeframe of QFASA estimates and the need to account for species-specific patterns of metabolism. We conducted a series of feeding experiments with four juvenile male brown bears (Ursus arctos) to (1) track the timing of changes in adipose tissue composition and QFASA diet estimates in response to a change in diet and (2) quantify the relationship between consumer and diet FA composition (i.e., determine "calibration coefficients"). Bears were fed three compositionally distinct diets for 90-120 days each. Two marine-based diets were intended to approximate the lipid content and composition of the wild diet of polar bears (U. maritimus). Bear adipose tissue composition changed quickly in the direction of the diet and showed evidence of stabilization after 60 days. During hibernation, FA profiles were initially stable but diet estimates after 10 weeks were sensitive to calibration coefficients. Calibration coefficients derived from the marine-based diets were broadly similar to each other and to published values from marine-fed mink (Mustela vison), which have been used as a model for free-ranging polar bears. For growing bears on a high-fat diet, the temporal window for QFASA estimates was 30-90 days. Although our results reinforce the importance of accurate calibration, the similarities across taxa and diets suggest it may be feasible to develop a generalized QFASA approach for mammalian carnivores.

Identifying reliable indicators of fitness in polar bears.

Animal structural body size and condition are often measured to evaluate individual health, identify responses to environmental change and food availability, and relate food availability to effects on reproduction and survival. A variety of condition metrics have been developed but relationships between these metrics and vital rates are rarely validated. Identifying an optimal approach to estimate the body condition of polar bears is needed to improve monitoring of their response to decline in sea ice habitat. Therefore, we examined relationships between several commonly used condition indices (CI), body mass, and size with female reproductive success and cub survival among polar bears (Ursus maritimus) measured in two subpopulations over three decades. To improve measurement and application of morphometrics and CIs, we also examined whether CIs are independent of age and structural size-an important assumption for monitoring temporal trends-and factors affecting measurement precision and accuracy. Maternal CIs and mass measured the fall prior to denning were related to cub production. Similarly, maternal CIs, mass, and length were related to the mass of cubs or yearlings that accompanied her. However, maternal body mass, but not CIs, measured in the spring was related to cub production and only maternal mass and length were related to the probability of cub survival. These results suggest that CIs may not be better indicators of fitness than body mass in part because CIs remove variation associated with body size that is important in affecting fitness. Further, CIs exhibited variable relationships with age for growing bears and were lower for longer bears despite body length being related to cub survival and female reproductive success. These results are consistent with findings from other species indicating that body mass is a useful metric to link environmental conditions and population dynamics.

Chronic stress and body condition of wolf-killed prey in Prince Albert National Park, Saskatchewan.

Chronic stress and poor body condition can cause adverse physiological and behavioural responses and may make animals more vulnerable to predation. We examined hair cortisol concentration (HCC) and marrow lipid content, as bioindicators of chronic stress and body condition, respectively, of bison (Bison bison bison), moose (Alces alces) and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) killed by wolves (Canis lupus) in Prince Albert National Park (PANP), Saskatchewan, Canada. The Sturgeon River plains bison population in PANP is one of only a few wild populations of plains bison in their historical range in Canada and has experienced a decline of around 50% since 2005. We expected wolf-killed bison to have elevated HCC compared to human-harvested bison and that there would be a negative relationship between HCC and marrow lipids among wolf-killed animals. We compared HCC between different mortality sources for bison (wolf-killed n = 20 or human-harvested n = 23) and found that HCC was significantly elevated in wolf-killed bison (¯ = 7.56 ± 1.35 pg/mg). We found that HCC, species, sex and snow depth were all significant predictor variables of marrow lipid content of bison (n = 14), moose (n = 11) and deer (n = 27). Bison displayed the strongest negative correlation between HCC and marrow lipid content (r2 = 0.31). Our results suggest that chronic stress and poor body condition make prey more vulnerable to predation by wolves. HCC and marrow lipid content can provide reliable indicators of the physiological response of animals to stressors and may provide information on expected predator success that can be used to predict predator population dynamics.

High contributions of sea ice derived carbon in polar bear (Ursus maritimus) tissue.

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) rely upon Arctic sea ice as a physical habitat. Consequently, conservation assessments of polar bears identify the ongoing reduction in sea ice to represent a significant threat to their survival. However, the additional role of sea ice as a potential, indirect, source of energy to bears has been overlooked. Here we used the highly branched isoprenoid lipid biomarker-based index (H-Print) approach in combination with quantitative fatty acid signature analysis to show that sympagic (sea ice-associated), rather than pelagic, carbon contributions dominated the marine component of polar bear diet (72-100%; 99% CI, n = 55), irrespective of differences in diet composition. The lowest mean estimates of sympagic carbon were found in Baffin Bay bears, which were also exposed to the most rapidly increasing open water season. Therefore, our data illustrate that for future Arctic ecosystems that are likely to be characterised by reduced sea ice cover, polar bears will not only be impacted by a change in their physical habitat, but also potentially in the supply of energy to the ecosystems upon which they depend. This data represents the first quantifiable baseline that is critical for the assessment of likely ongoing changes in energy supply to Arctic predators as we move into an increasingly uncertain future for polar ecosystems.

Simultaneous estimation of diet composition and calibration coefficients with fatty acid signature data.

Knowledge of animal diets provides essential insights into their life history and ecology, although diet estimation is challenging and remains an active area of research. Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis (QFASA) has become a popular method of estimating diet composition, especially for marine species. A primary assumption of QFASA is that constants called calibration coefficients, which account for the differential metabolism of individual fatty acids, are known. In practice, however, calibration coefficients are not known, but rather have been estimated in feeding trials with captive animals of a limited number of model species. The impossibility of verifying the accuracy of feeding trial derived calibration coefficients to estimate the diets of wild animals is a foundational problem with QFASA that has generated considerable criticism. We present a new model that allows simultaneous estimation of diet composition and calibration coefficients based only on fatty acid signature samples from wild predators and potential prey. Our model performed almost flawlessly in four tests with constructed examples, estimating both diet proportions and calibration coefficients with essentially no error. We also applied the model to data from Chukchi Sea polar bears, obtaining diet estimates that were more diverse than estimates conditioned on feeding trial calibration coefficients. Our model avoids bias in diet estimates caused by conditioning on inaccurate calibration coefficients, invalidates the primary criticism of QFASA, eliminates the need to conduct feeding trials solely for diet estimation, and consequently expands the utility of fatty acid data to investigate aspects of ecology linked to animal diets.

Sea ice-associated decline in body condition leads to increased concentrations of lipophilic pollutants in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Svalbard, Norway.

Global climate changes are magnified in the Arctic and are having an especially dramatic effect on the spatial and temporal distribution and the thickness traits of sea ice. Decline of Arctic sea ice may lead to qualitative and/or quantitative changes in diet and reduced body condition (i.e. adipose tissue stores) of ice-associated apex predators such as polar bears (Ursus maritimus). This may further affect their tissue concentrations of lipophilic pollutants. We determined how variations in adipose tissue stores associated to both breeding status and spatial changes in sea ice conditions and diet influence concentrations and biotransformation of lipophilic persistent organic pollutants (POPs). We collected 112 blood and fat samples from female polar bears (Ursus maritimus) of different breeding status (alone, with cubs of the year, or with yearlings) during two seasons (April and September) in 2012 and 2013 at three locations of Svalbard, Norway, with contrasted sea ice conditions. We inferred diet from nitrogen and carbon stable isotope ratios in red blood cells and fatty acid composition in adipose tissue. Relative to diet, body condition, which was negatively related to sea ice extent at both temporal and spatial scales, was the most important predictor for concentrations of POPs in plasma and fat, whereas diet showed a minor influence. Additionally, fatter females were more efficient at biotransforming PCBs than were leaner ones. Breeding status influenced the concentrations of less lipophilic compounds such as ß-hexachlorocyclohexane, which were lower in females with yearlings, probably due to excretion into milk and subsequent offloading to young. In conclusion, our results indicate that declining sea ice indirectly leads to increased concentrations of lipophilic pollutants in polar bears mediated through reduced feeding opportunities and declining body condition rather than changes in diet composition.

Diet and metabolic state are the main factors determining concentrations of perfluoroalkyl substances in female polar bears from Svalbard.

Perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) have been detected in organisms worldwide, including Polar Regions. The polar bear (Ursus maritimus), the top predator of Arctic marine ecosystems, accumulates high concentrations of PFASs, which may be harmful to their health. The aim of this study was to investigate which factors (habitat quality, season, year, diet, metabolic state [i.e. feeding/fasting], breeding status and age) predict PFAS concentrations in female polar bears captured on Svalbard (Norway). We analysed two perfluoroalkyl sulfonates (PFSAs: PFHxS and PFOS) and C8-C13 perfluoroalkyl carboxylates (PFCAs) in 112 plasma samples obtained in April and September 2012-2013. Nitrogen and carbon stable isotope ratios (δ15N, δ13C) in red blood cells and plasma, and fatty acid profiles in adipose tissue were used as proxies for diet. We determined habitat quality based on movement patterns, capture position and resource selection functions, which are models that predict the probability of use of a resource unit. Plasma urea to creatinine ratios were used as proxies for metabolic state (i.e. feeding or fasting state). Results were obtained from a conditional model averaging of 42 general linear mixed models. Diet was the most important predictor of PFAS concentrations. PFAS concentrations were positively related to trophic level and marine diet input. High PFAS concentrations in females feeding on the eastern part of Svalbard, where the habitat quality was higher than on the western coast, were likely related to diet and possibly to abiotic factors. Concentrations of PFSAs and C8-C10 PFCAs were higher in fasting than in feeding polar bears and PFOS was higher in females with cubs of the year than in solitary females. Our findings suggest that female polar bears that are exposed to the highest levels of PFAS are those 1) feeding on high trophic level sea ice-associated prey, 2) fasting and 3) with small cubs.

Multiple-stressor effects in an apex predator: combined influence of pollutants and sea ice decline on lipid metabolism in polar bears.

There is growing evidence from experimental and human epidemiological studies that many pollutants can disrupt lipid metabolism. In Arctic wildlife, the occurrence of such compounds could have serious consequences for seasonal feeders. We set out to study whether organohalogenated compounds (OHCs) could cause disruption of energy metabolism in female polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Svalbard, Norway (n = 112). We analyzed biomarkers of energy metabolism including the abundance profiles of nine lipid-related genes, fatty acid (FA) synthesis and elongation indices in adipose tissue, and concentrations of lipid-related variables in plasma (cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, triglycerides). Furthermore, the plasma metabolome and lipidome were characterized by low molecular weight metabolites and lipid fingerprinting, respectively. Polychlorinated biphenyls, chlordanes, brominated diphenyl ethers and perfluoroalkyl substances were significantly related to biomarkers involved in lipid accumulation, FA metabolism, insulin utilization, and cholesterol homeostasis. Moreover, the effects of pollutants were measurable at the metabolome and lipidome levels. Our results indicate that several OHCs affect lipid biosynthesis and catabolism in female polar bears. Furthermore, these effects were more pronounced when combined with reduced sea ice extent and thickness, suggesting that climate-driven sea ice decline and OHCs have synergistic negative effects on polar bears.

Dietary habits of polar bears in Foxe Basin, Canada: possible evidence of a trophic regime shift mediated by a new top predator.

Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations in several areas with seasonal sea ice regimes have shown declines in body condition, reproductive rates, or abundance as a result of declining sea ice habitat. In the Foxe Basin region of Nunavut, Canada, the size of the polar bear subpopulation has remained largely stable over the past 20 years, despite concurrent declines in sea ice habitat. We used fatty acid analysis to examine polar bear feeding habits in Foxe Basin and thus potentially identify ecological factors contributing to population stability. Adipose tissue samples were collected from 103 polar bears harvested during 2010-2012. Polar bear diet composition varied spatially within the region with ringed seal (Pusa hispida) comprising the primary prey in northern and southern Foxe Basin, whereas polar bears in Hudson Strait consumed equal proportions of ringed seal and harp seal (Pagophilus groenlandicus). Walrus (Odobenus rosmarus) consumption was highest in northern Foxe Basin, a trend driven by the ability of adult male bears to capture large-bodied prey. Importantly, bowhead whale (Balaena mysticetus) contributed to polar bear diets in all areas and all age and sex classes. Bowhead carcasses resulting from killer whale (Orcinus orca) predation and subsistence harvest potentially provide an important supplementary food source for polar bears during the ice-free period. Our results suggest that the increasing abundance of killer whales and bowhead whales in the region could be indirectly contributing to improved polar bear foraging success despite declining sea ice habitat. However, this indirect interaction between top predators may be temporary if continued sea ice declines eventually severely limit on-ice feeding opportunities for polar bears.

Geographical Area and Life History Traits Influence Diet in an Arctic Marine Predator.

Global changes are thought to affect most Arctic species, yet some populations are more at risk. Today, the Barents Sea ecoregion is suffering the strongest sea ice retreat ever measured; and these changes are suspected to modify food access and thus diet of several species. Biochemical diet tracers enable investigation of diet in species such as polar bears (Ursus maritimus). We examined individual diet variation of female polar bears in Svalbard, Norway, and related it to year, season (spring and autumn), sampling area and breeding status (solitary, with cubs of the year or yearlings). Sampling areas were split according to their ice cover: North-West (less sea ice cover), South-East (larger amplitude in sea ice extent) and North-East/South-West (NESW) as bears from that zone are more mobile among all regions of Svalbard. We measured fatty acid (FA) composition in adipose tissue and carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) stable isotopes in plasma and red blood cells. Females feeding in the North-West area had lower δ15N values than those from the NESW. In South-East females, δ13C values were lower in autumn compared to spring and females seemed less selective in their diet as depicted by large variances in stable isotope values. Considering the differences in FA composition and stable isotope values, we suggest that females from the North-West and South-East could ingest a higher proportion of avian prey. With regard to breeding status, solitary females had higher δ15N values and smaller variance in their stable isotopic values than females with cubs, suggesting that solitary females were more selective and prey on higher trophic level species (i.e. seals). Overall, our results indicate that prey availability for Svalbard polar bears varies according to geographical area and prey selectivity differs according to breeding status. Our findings suggest that complex changes in sea ice and prey availability will interact to affect Svalbard polar bear feeding patterns and associated nutrition.

Distance measures and optimization spaces in quantitative fatty acid signature analysis.

Quantitative fatty acid signature analysis has become an important method of diet estimation in ecology, especially marine ecology. Controlled feeding trials to validate the method and estimate the calibration coefficients necessary to account for differential metabolism of individual fatty acids have been conducted with several species from diverse taxa. However, research into potential refinements of the estimation method has been limited. We compared the performance of the original method of estimating diet composition with that of five variants based on different combinations of distance measures and calibration-coefficient transformations between prey and predator fatty acid signature spaces. Fatty acid signatures of pseudopredators were constructed using known diet mixtures of two prey data sets previously used to estimate the diets of polar bears Ursus maritimus and gray seals Halichoerus grypus, and their diets were then estimated using all six variants. In addition, previously published diets of Chukchi Sea polar bears were re-estimated using all six methods. Our findings reveal that the selection of an estimation method can meaningfully influence estimates of diet composition. Among the pseudopredator results, which allowed evaluation of bias and precision, differences in estimator performance were rarely large, and no one estimator was universally preferred, although estimators based on the Aitchison distance measure tended to have modestly superior properties compared to estimators based on the Kullback-Leibler distance measure. However, greater differences were observed among estimated polar bear diets, most likely due to differential estimator sensitivity to assumption violations. Our results, particularly the polar bear example, suggest that additional research into estimator performance and model diagnostics is warranted.

Large, omega-3 rich, pelagic diatoms under Arctic sea ice: sources and implications for food webs.

Pelagic primary production in Arctic seas has traditionally been viewed as biologically insignificant until after the ice breakup. There is growing evidence however, that under-ice blooms of pelagic phytoplankton may be a recurrent occurrence. During the springs of 2011 and 2012, we found substantial numbers (201-5713 cells m-3) of the large centric diatom (diameter >250 µm) Coscinodiscus centralis under the sea ice in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago near Resolute Bay, Nunavut. The highest numbers of these pelagic diatoms were observed in Barrow Strait. Spatial patterns of fatty acid profiles and stable isotopes indicated two source populations for C. centralis: a western origin with low light conditions and high nutrients, and a northern origin with lower nutrient levels and higher irradiances. Fatty acid analysis revealed that pelagic diatoms had significantly higher levels of polyunsaturated fatty acids (mean ± SD: 50.3 ± 8.9%) compared to ice-associated producers (30.6 ± 10.3%) in our study area. In particular, C. centralis had significantly greater proportions of the long chain omega-3 fatty acid, eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), than ice algae (24.4 ± 5.1% versus 13.7 ± 5.1%, respectively). Thus, C. centralis represented a significantly higher quality food source for local herbivores than ice algae, although feeding experiments did not show clear evidence of copepod grazing on C. centralis. Our results suggest that C. centralis are able to initiate growth under pack ice in this area and provide further evidence that biological productivity in ice-covered seas may be substantially higher than previously recognized.