Cause of death coding in asthma.

BACKGROUND: While clinical coding is intended to be an objective and standardized practice, it is important to recognize that it is not entirely the case. The clinical and bureaucratic practices from event of death to a case being entered into a research dataset are important context for analysing and interpreting this data. Variation in practices can influence the accuracy of the final coded record in two different stages: the reporting of the death certificate, and the International Classification of Diseases (Version 10; ICD-10) coding of that certificate. METHODS: This study investigated 91,022 deaths recorded in the Scottish Asthma Learning Healthcare System dataset between 2000 and 2017. Asthma-related deaths were identified by the presence of any of ICD-10 codes J45 or J46, in any position. These codes were categorized either as relating to asthma attacks specifically (status asthmatic; J46) or generally to asthma diagnosis (J45). RESULTS: We found that one in every 200 deaths in this were coded as being asthma related. Less than 1% of asthma-related mortality records used both J45 and J46 ICD-10 codes as causes. Infection (predominantly pneumonia) was more commonly reported as a contributing cause of death when J45 was the primary coded cause, compared to J46, which specifically denotes asthma attacks. CONCLUSION: Further inspection of patient history can be essential to validate deaths recorded as caused by asthma, and to identify potentially mis-recorded non-asthma deaths, particularly in those with complex comorbidities.

Characteristics and outcomes of patients with COVID-19 at high risk of disease progression receiving sotrovimab, oral antivirals, or no treatment: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The clinical benefit of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) treatments against new circulating variants remains unclear. We sought to describe characteristics and clinical outcomes of highest risk patients with COVID-19 receiving early COVID-19 treatments in Scotland. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study of non-hospitalized patients diagnosed with COVID-19 from December 1, 2021-October 25, 2022, using Scottish administrative health data. We included adult patients who met ≥ 1 of the National Health Service highest risk criteria for early COVID-19 treatment and received outpatient treatment with sotrovimab, nirmatrelvir/ritonavir or molnupiravir, or no early COVID-19 treatment. Index date was defined as the earliest of COVID-19 diagnosis or early COVID-19 treatment. Baseline characteristics and acute clinical outcomes in the 28 days following index were reported. Values of ≤ 5 were suppressed. RESULTS: In total, 2548 patients were included (492: sotrovimab, 276: nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, 71: molnupiravir, and 1709: eligible highest risk untreated). Patients aged ≥ 75 years accounted for 6.9% (n = 34/492), 21.0% (n = 58/276), 16.9% (n = 12/71) and 13.2% (n = 225/1709) of the cohorts, respectively. Advanced renal disease was reported in 6.7% (n = 33/492) of sotrovimab-treated and 4.7% (n = 81/1709) of untreated patients, and ≤ 5 nirmatrelvir/ritonavir-treated and molnupiravir-treated patients. All-cause hospitalizations were experienced by 5.3% (n = 25/476) of sotrovimab-treated patients, 6.9% (n = 12/175) of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir-treated patients, ≤ 5 (suppressed number) molnupiravir-treated patients and 13.3% (n = 216/1622) of untreated patients. There were no deaths in the treated cohorts; mortality was 4.3% (n = 70/1622) among untreated patients. CONCLUSIONS: Sotrovimab was often used by patients who were aged < 75 years. Among patients receiving early COVID-19 treatment, proportions of 28-day all-cause hospitalization and death were low.

Quality of ethnicity data within Scottish health records and implications of misclassification for ethnic inequalities in severe COVID-19: a national linked data study.

BACKGROUND: We compared the quality of ethnicity coding within the Public Health Scotland Ethnicity Look-up (PHS-EL) dataset, and other National Health Service datasets, with the 2011 Scottish Census. METHODS: Measures of quality included the level of missingness and misclassification. We examined the impact of misclassification using Cox proportional hazards to compare the risk of severe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) (hospitalization & death) by ethnic group. RESULTS: Misclassification within PHS-EL was higher for all minority ethnic groups [12.5 to 69.1%] compared with the White Scottish majority [5.1%] and highest in the White Gypsy/Traveller group [69.1%]. Missingness in PHS-EL was highest among the White Other British group [39%] and lowest among the Pakistani group [17%]. PHS-EL data often underestimated severe COVID-19 risk compared with Census data. e.g. in the White Gypsy/Traveller group the Hazard Ratio (HR) was 1.68 [95% Confidence Intervals (CI): 1.03, 2.74] compared with the White Scottish majority using Census ethnicity data and 0.73 [95% CI: 0.10, 5.15] using PHS-EL data; and HR was 2.03 [95% CI: 1.20, 3.44] in the Census for the Bangladeshi group versus 1.45 [95% CI: 0.75, 2.78] in PHS-EL. CONCLUSIONS: Poor quality ethnicity coding in health records can bias estimates, thereby threatening monitoring and understanding ethnic inequalities in health.

Prevalence, Trajectory, and Predictors of Poststroke Pain: Retrospective Analysis of Pooled Clinical Trial Data Set.

BACKGROUND: Poststroke pain remains underdiagnosed and inadequately managed. To inform the optimum time to initiate interventions, we examined prevalence, trajectory, and participant factors associated with poststroke pain. METHODS: Eligible studies from the VISTA (Virtual International Stroke Trials Archives) included an assessment of pain. Analyses of individual participant data examined demography, pain, mobility, independence, language, anxiety/depression, and vitality. Pain assessments were standardized to the European Quality of Life Scale (European Quality of Life 5 Dimensions 3 Level) pain domain, describing no, moderate, or extreme pain. We described pain prevalence, associations between participant characteristics, and pain using multivariable models. RESULTS: From 94 studies (n>48 000 individual participant data) in VISTA, 10 (n=10 002 individual participant data) included a pain assessment. Median age was 70.0 years (interquartile range [59.0-77.1]), 5560 (55.6%) were male, baseline stroke severity was National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score 10 (interquartile range [7-15]). Reports of extreme pain ranged between 3% and 9.5% and were highest beyond 2 years poststroke (31/328 [9.5%]); pain trajectory varied by study. Poorer independence was significantly associated with presence of moderate or extreme pain (5 weeks-3 months odds ratio [OR], 1.5 [95% CI, 1.4-1.6]; 4-6 months OR, 1.7 [95% CI, 1.3-2.1]; >6 months OR, 1.5 [95% CI, 1.2-2.0]), and increased severity of pain (5 weeks-3 months: OR, 1.2 [95% CI, 1.1-1.2]; 4-6 months OR, 1.1 [95% CI, 1.1-1.2]; >6 months, OR, 1.2 [95% CI, 1.1-1.2]), after adjusting for covariates. Anxiety/depression and lower vitality were each associated with pain severity. CONCLUSIONS: Between 3% and 9.5% of participants reported extreme poststroke pain; the presence and severity of pain were independently associated with dependence at each time point. Future studies could determine whether and when interventions may reduce the prevalence and severity of poststroke pain.

Estimating medication adherence from Electronic Health Records: comparing methods for mining and processing asthma treatment prescriptions.

BACKGROUND: Medication adherence is usually defined as the extent of the agreement between the medication regimen agreed to by patients with their healthcare provider and the real-world implementation. Proactive identification of those with poor adherence may be useful to identify those with poor disease control and offers the opportunity for ameliorative action. Adherence can be estimated from Electronic Health Records (EHRs) by comparing medication dispensing records to the prescribed regimen. Several methods have been developed in the literature to infer adherence from EHRs, however there is no clear consensus on what should be considered the gold standard in each use case. Our objectives were to critically evaluate different measures of medication adherence in a large longitudinal Scottish EHR dataset. We used asthma, a chronic condition with high prevalence and high rates of non-adherence, as a case study. METHODS: Over 1.6 million asthma controllers were prescribed for our cohort of 91,334 individuals, between January 2009 and March 2017. Eight adherence measures were calculated, and different approaches to estimating the amount of medication supply available at any time were compared. RESULTS: Estimates from different measures of adherence varied substantially. Three of the main drivers of the differences between adherence measures were the expected duration (if taken as in accordance with the dose directions), whether there was overlapping supply between prescriptions, and whether treatment had been discontinued. However, there are also wider, study-related, factors which are crucial to consider when comparing the adherence measures. CONCLUSIONS: We evaluated the limitations of various medication adherence measures, and highlight key considerations about the underlying data, condition, and population to guide researchers choose appropriate adherence measures. This guidance will enable researchers to make more informed decisions about the methodology they employ, ensuring that adherence is captured in the most meaningful way for their particular application needs.

Derivation of asthma severity from electronic prescription records using British thoracic society treatment steps.

BACKGROUND: Asthma severity is typically assessed through a retrospective assessment of the treatment required to control symptoms and to prevent exacerbations. The joint British Thoracic Society and Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (BTS/SIGN) guidelines encourage a stepwise approach to pharmacotherapy, and as such, current treatment step can be considered as a severity categorisation proxy. Briefly, the steps for adults can be summarised as: no controller therapy (Step 0), low-strength Inhaled Corticosteroids (ICS; Step 1), ICS plus Long-Acting Beta-2 Agonist (LABA; Step 2), medium-dose ICS + LABA (Step 3), and finally either an increase in strength or additional therapies (Step 4). This study aimed to investigate how BTS/SIGN Steps can be estimated from across a large cohort using electronic prescription records, and to describe the incidence of each BTS/SIGN Step in a general population. METHODS: There were 41,433,707 prescriptions, for 671,304 individuals, in the Asthma Learning Health System Scottish cohort, between 1/2009 and 3/2017. Days on which an individual had a prescription for at least one asthma controller (preventer) medication were labelled prescription events. A rule-based algorithm was developed for extracting the strength and volume of medication instructed to be taken daily from free-text data fields. Asthma treatment regimens were categorised by the combination of medications prescribed in the 120 days preceding any prescription event and categorised into BTS/SIGN treatment steps. RESULTS: Almost 4.5 million ALHS prescriptions were for asthma controllers. 26% of prescription events had no inhaled corticosteroid prescriptions in the preceding 120 days (Step 0), 16% were assigned to BTS/SIGN Step 1, 7% to Step 2, 21% to Step 3, and 30% to Step 4. The median days spent on a treatment step before a step-down in treatment was 297 days, whereas a step-up only took a median of 134 days. CONCLUSION: We developed a reproducible methodology enabling researchers to estimate BTS/SIGN asthma treatment steps in population health studies, providing valuable insights into population and patient-specific trajectories, towards improving the management of asthma.

Hormone replacement therapy and asthma onset in menopausal women: National cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is uncertainty about the role of hormonal replacement therapy (HRT) in the development of asthma. OBJECTIVE: We investigated whether use of HRT and duration of use was associated with risk of development of asthma in perimenopausal and postmenopausal women. METHODS: We constructed a 17-year (from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2016) open cohort of 353,173 women (aged 46-70 years) from the Optimum Patient Care Database, a longitudinal primary care database from across the United Kingdom. HRT use, subtypes, and duration of use; confounding variables; and asthma onset were defined by using the Read Clinical Classification System. We fitted multilevel Cox regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs. RESULTS: During the 17-year follow-up (1,340,423 person years), 7,614 new asthma cases occurred, giving an incidence rate of 5.7 (95% CI = 5.5-5.8) per 1,000 person years. Compared with nonuse of HRT, previous use of any (HR = 0.83; 95% CI = 0.76-0.88), estrogen-only (HR = 0.89; 95% CI = 0.84-0.95), or combined estrogen and progestogen (HR = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.76-0.88) HRT was associated with a reduced risk of asthma onset. This was also the case with current use of any (HR = 0.79; 95% CI = 0.74-0.85), estrogen-only (HR = 0.80; 95% CI = 0.73-0.87), and combined estrogen and progestogen (HR = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.70-0.87) HRT. Longer duration of HRT use (1-2 years [HR = 0.93; 95% CI = 0.87-0.99]; 3-4 years [HR = 0.77; 95% CI = 0.70-0.84]; and ≥5 years [HR = 0.71; 95% CI = 0.64-0.78]) was associated with a dose-response reduced risk of asthma onset. CONCLUSION: We found that HRT was associated with a reduced risk of development of late onset asthma in menopausal women. Further cohort studies are needed to confirm these findings.

Hormonal contraception and the risk of severe asthma exacerbation: 17-year population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Longitudinal studies investigating impact of exogenous sex steroids on clinical outcomes of asthma in women are lacking. We investigated the association between use of hormonal contraceptives and risk of severe asthma exacerbation in reproductive-age women with asthma. METHODS: We used the Optimum Patient Care Research Database, a population-based, longitudinal, anonymised primary care database in the UK, to construct a 17-year (1 January 2000-31 December 2016) retrospective cohort of reproductive-age (16-45 years, n=83 084) women with asthma. Using Read codes, we defined use, subtypes and duration of use of hormonal contraceptives. Severe asthma exacerbation was defined according to recommendations of the European Respiratory Society/American Thoracic Society as asthma-related hospitalisation, accident and emergency department visits due to asthma and/or oral corticosteroid prescriptions. Analyses were done using multilevel mixed-effects Poisson regression with QR decomposition. RESULTS: The 17-year follow-up resulted in 456 803 person-years of follow-up time. At baseline, 34% of women were using any hormonal contraceptives, 25% combined (oestrogen/progestogen) and 9% progestogen-only contraceptives. Previous (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.94, 95% CI 0.92 to 0.97) and current (IRR 0.96, 95% CI 0.94 to 0.98) use of any, previous (IRR 0.92, 95% CI 0.87 to 0.97) and current use of combined (IRR 0.93, 95% CI 0.91 to 0.96) and longer duration of use (3-4 years: IRR 0.94, 95% CI 0.92 to 0.97; 5+ years: IRR 0.91, 95% CI 0.89 to 0.93) of hormonal contraceptives, but not progestogen-only contraceptives, were associated with reduced risk of severe asthma exacerbation compared with non-use. CONCLUSIONS: Use of hormonal contraceptives may reduce the risk of severe asthma exacerbation in reproductive-age women. Mechanistic studies investigating the biological basis for the influence of hormonal contraceptives on clinical outcomes of asthma in women are required. PROTOCOL REGISTRATION NUMBER: European Union electronic Register of Post-Authorisation Studies (EUPAS22967).

Measuring and reporting treatment adherence: What can we learn by comparing two respiratory conditions?

Medication non-adherence, defined as any deviation from the regimen recommended by their healthcare provider, can increase morbidity, mortality and side effects, while reducing effectiveness. Through studying two respiratory conditions, asthma and tuberculosis (TB), we thoroughly review the current understanding of the measurement and reporting of medication adherence. In this paper, we identify major methodological issues in the standard ways that adherence has been conceptualised, defined and studied in asthma and TB. Between and within the two diseases there are substantial variations in adherence reporting, linked to differences in dosing intervals and treatment duration. Critically, the communicable nature of TB has resulted in dose-by-dose monitoring becoming a recommended treatment standard. Through the lens of these similarities and contrasts, we highlight contemporary shortcomings in the generalised conceptualisation of medication adherence. Furthermore, we outline elements in which knowledge could be directly transferred from one condition to the other, such as the application of large-scale cost-effective monitoring methods in TB to resource-poor settings in asthma. To develop a more robust evidence-based approach, we recommend the use of standard taxonomies detailed in the ABC taxonomy when measuring and discussing adherence. Regimen and intervention development and use should be based on sufficient evidence of the commonality and type of adherence behaviours displayed by patients with the relevant condition. A systematic approach to the measurement and reporting of adherence could improve the value and generalisability of research across all health conditions.

Outcomes of Victorian Prevention and Recovery Care Services: A matched pairs comparison.

OBJECTIVE: In Victoria, Prevention and Recovery Care Services have been established to provide a partial alternative to inpatient admissions through short-term residential mental health care in the community. This study set out to determine whether Prevention and Recovery Care Services are achieving their objectives in relation to reducing service use and costs, fostering least restrictive care and leading to positive clinical outcomes. METHODS: We matched 621 consumers whose index admission in 2014 was to a Prevention and Recovery Care ('PARCS consumers') with 621 similar consumers whose index admission in the same year was to an acute inpatient unit and who had no Prevention and Recovery Care stays for the study period ('inpatient-only consumers'). We used routinely collected data to compare them on a range of outcomes. RESULTS: Prevention and Recovery Care Services consumers made less subsequent use of acute inpatient services and, on balance, incurred costs that were similar to or lower than inpatient-only consumers. They were also less likely to spend time on an involuntary treatment order following their index admission. Prevention and Recovery Care Services consumers also experienced positive clinical outcomes over the course of their index admission, but the magnitude of this improvement was not as great as for inpatient-only consumers. This type of clinical improvement is important for Prevention and Recovery Care Services, but they may place greater emphasis on personal recovery as an outcome. CONCLUSION: Prevention and Recovery Care Services can provide an alternative, less restrictive care option for eligible consumers who might otherwise be admitted to an acute inpatient unit and do so at no greater cost.

Hormonal contraceptives and onset of asthma in reproductive-age women: Population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Despite well-described sex differences in asthma incidence, there remains uncertainty about the role of female sex hormones in the development of asthma. OBJECTIVE: We sought to investigate whether hormonal contraceptive use, its subtypes, and duration of use were associated with new-onset asthma in reproductive-age women. METHODS: Using the Optimum Patient Care Research Database, a UK national primary care database, we constructed an open cohort of 16- to 45-year-old women (N = 564,896) followed for up to 17 years (ie, January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2016). We fitted multilevel Cox regression models to analyze the data. RESULTS: At baseline, 26% of women were using any hormonal contraceptives. During follow-up (3,597,146 person-years), 25,288 women developed asthma, an incidence rate of 7.0 (95% CI, 6.9-7.1) per 1000 person-years. Compared with nonuse, previous use of any hormonal contraceptives (hazard ratio [HR], 0.70; 95% CI, 0.68-0.72), combined (HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.68-0.72), and progestogen-only therapy (HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.67-0.74) was associated with reduced risk of new-onset asthma. For current use, the estimates were as follows: any (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.61-0.65), combined (HR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.62-0.67), and progestogen-only therapy (HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.56-0.62). Longer duration of use (1-2 years: HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.81-0.86; 3-4 years: HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.61-0.67; 5+ years: HR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.44-0.49) was associated with a lower risk of asthma onset than nonuse. CONCLUSIONS: Hormonal contraceptive use was associated with reduced risk of new-onset asthma in women of reproductive age. Mechanistic investigations to uncover the biological processes for these observations are required. Clinical trials investigating the safety and effectiveness of hormonal contraceptives for primary prevention of asthma will be helpful to confirm these results.

Linkage of primary care prescribing records and pharmacy dispensing Records in the Salford Lung Study: application in asthma.

BACKGROUND: Records of medication prescriptions can be used in conjunction with pharmacy dispensing records to investigate the incidence of adherence, which is defined as observing the treatment plans agreed between a patient and their clinician. Using prescribing records alone fails to identify primary non-adherence; medications not being collected from the dispensary. Using dispensing records alone means that cases of conditions that resolve and/or treatments that are discontinued will be unaccounted for. While using a linked prescribing and dispensing dataset to measure medication non-adherence is optimal, this linkage is not routinely conducted. Furthermore, without a unique common event identifier, linkage between these two datasets is not straightforward. METHODS: We undertook a secondary analysis of the Salford Lung Study dataset. A novel probabilistic record linkage methodology was developed matching asthma medication pharmacy dispensing records and primary care prescribing records, using semantic (meaning) and syntactic (structure) harmonization, domain knowledge integration, and natural language feature extraction. Cox survival analysis was conducted to assess factors associated with the time to medication dispensing after the prescription was written. Finally, we used a simplified record linkage algorithm in which only identical records were matched, for a naïve benchmarking to compare against the results of our proposed methodology. RESULTS: We matched 83% of pharmacy dispensing records to primary care prescribing records. Missing data were prevalent in the dispensing records which were not matched - approximately 60% for both medication strength and quantity. A naïve benchmarking approach, requiring perfect matching, identified one-quarter as many matching prescribing records as our methodology. Factors associated with delay (or failure) to collect the prescribed medication from a pharmacy included season, quantity of medication prescribed, previous dispensing history and class of medication. Our findings indicate that over 30% of prescriptions issued were not collected from a dispensary (primary non-adherence). CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a probabilistic record linkage methodology matching a large percentage of pharmacy dispensing records with primary care prescribing records for asthma medications. This will allow researchers to link datasets in order to extract information about asthma medication non-adherence.

Similarities and differences in people accessing prevention and recovery care services and inpatient units in Victoria, Australia.

BACKGROUND: There is an emerging international literature demonstrating clinical and cost-effectiveness of sub-acute residential mental health services. To date, however, there is limited information on the profile of consumers accessing these models of care. This study aimed to understand the profile of the population served by adult sub-acute residential mental health services in Victoria, Australia (known as Prevention and Recovery Care; PARC) and to compare PARC service consumers with consumers admitted to psychiatric inpatient units within public hospitals. METHOD: Using 5 years (2012-2016) of a state-wide database of routinely collected individual level mental health service data, we describe the socio-demographic and clinical profile of PARC service consumers compared to consumers of psychiatric inpatient units including for primary diagnosis and illness severity. Using admissions as the unit of analysis, we identify the characteristics that distinguish PARC service admissions from psychiatric inpatient admissions. We also examine and compare length of stay for the different admission types. RESULTS: We analysed 78,264 admissions representing 34,906 individuals. The profile of PARC service consumers differed from those admitted to inpatient units including for sex, age, diagnosis and illness severity. The odds of an admission being to a PARC service was associated with several socio-demographic and clinical characteristics. Being male or in the youngest age grouping (< 20 years) significantly reduced the odds of admission to PARC services. The presence of primary diagnoses of schizophrenia and related disorders, mood, anxiety or personality disorders, all significantly increased the odds of admission to PARC services. Predictors of length of stay were consistent across PARC and inpatient admission types. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest PARC services may serve an overlapping but distinguishably different consumer group than inpatient psychiatric units. Future research on sub-acute mental health services should be cognizant of these consumer differences, particularly when assessing the long-term effectiveness of this service option.

Does legislative change affect the use and duration of compulsory treatment orders?

OBJECTIVE: Victoria, Australia, introduced reformed mental health legislation in 2014. The Act was based on a policy platform of recovery-oriented services, supported decision-making and minimisation of the use and duration of compulsory orders. This paper compares service utilisation and legal status after being on a community treatment order under the Mental Health Act 1986 (Vic) with that under the Mental Health Act 2014 (Vic). METHODS: We obtained two distinct data sets of persons who had been on a community treatment order for at least 3 months and their subsequent treatment episodes over 2 years under the Mental Health Act and/or as an inpatient for the periods 2008-2010 (Mental Health Act 1986) and 2014-2016 (Mental Health Act 2014). The two sets were compared to assess the difference in use, duration and odds of having a further admission over 2 years. We also considered the mode of discharge - whether by the treating psychiatrist, external body or through expiry. RESULTS: Compared with the Mental Health Act 1986, under the Mental Health Act 2014, index community treatment orders were shorter (mean 227 days compared with 335 days); there was a reduction in the mean number of community treatment orders in the 2 years following the index discharge - 1.1 compared with 1.5 (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.71, 95% confidence interval = [0.63, 0.80]) - and a 51% reduction in days on an order over 2 years. There was a reduction in the number of subsequent orders for those whose order expired or was revoked by the psychiatrist under the Mental Health Act 2014 compared to those under the Mental Health Act 1986. The number of orders which were varied to an inpatient order by the authorised psychiatrist was notably greater under the Mental Health Act 2014. CONCLUSION: The reformed Mental Health Act has been successful in its intent to reduce the use and duration of compulsory orders in the community. The apparent increase in return to inpatient orders raises questions regarding the intensity and effectiveness of community treatment and context of service delivery.

The impact of substance use on treatment as a compulsory patient.

OBJECTIVES: This paper considers the impact of having a diagnosis of substance use disorder on the utilisation of compulsory orders under the Victorian Mental Health Act (2014). METHODS: We analysed the subsequent treatment episodes over 2 years of people who had been on a community treatment order for at least 3 months and determined the odds of a further treatment order if there was a diagnosis of substance use at or about the time the index community treatment order ended. RESULTS: An additional diagnosis of a substance use disorder was coded in 47.7% and was associated with significantly increased odds of a subsequent treatment order in the following 2 years for those with a main diagnosis of schizophrenia (AOR = 3.03, p<0.001) and 'other' disorders (AOR = 11.60, p=0.002). Those with a main diagnosis of mood disorder had a significant increase in odds for an inpatient treatment order if there was an additional substance use disorder diagnosis (AOR = 3.81, p=0.006). CONCLUSIONS: Having an additional diagnosis of substance use disorder was associated with increased likelihood of being placed on an order. This study supports greater emphasis being given to treatment of substance use concurrently with that of mental illness.

The importance of including aliases in data linkage with vulnerable populations.

BACKGROUND: Records pertaining to individuals whose identity cannot be verified with legal documentation may contain errors, or be incorrect by intention of the individual. Probabilistic data linkage, especially in vulnerable populations where the incidence of such records may be higher, must be considerate of the usage of these records. METHODS: A data linkage was conducted between Queensland Youth Justice records and the Australian National Death Index. Links were assessed to determine how often they were made using the unverified (alias) records that would not have been made in their absence (i.e. links that were not also made using solely verified records). Anomalies in the linked records were investigated in order to make evaluations of the sensitivity and specificity of the linkage, compared to the links made using only verified records. RESULTS: From links made using verified records only, 1309 deaths were identified (2.6% of individuals). Using alias records in addition, the number of links increased by 16%. Links made using alias records only were more common in females, and those born after 1985. Different records belonging to the same individual in the justice dataset did not link to different death records, however there were instances of the same death record linking to multiple cohort individuals. CONCLUSIONS: The inclusion of aliases in data linkage in youths involved in the justice system increased mortality ascertainment without any discernible increase in false positive matches. We therefore conclude that alias records should be included in data linkage procedures in order to avoid biased attenuation of ascertainment in vulnerable populations, leading to the concealment of health inequality.

Primary Care Asthma Attack Prediction Models for Adults: A Systematic Review of Reported Methodologies and Outcomes.

Prognostic models hold great potential for predicting asthma exacerbations, providing opportunities for early intervention, and are a popular area of current research. However, it is unclear how models should be compared and contrasted, given their differences in both design and performance, particularly with a view to potential implementation in routine practice. This systematic review aimed to identify novel predictive models of asthma attacks in adults and compare differences in construction related to populations, outcome definitions, prediction time horizons, algorithms, validation, and performance estimation. Twenty-five studies were identified for comparison, with varying definitions of asthma attacks and prediction event time horizons ranging from 15 days to 30 months. The most commonly used algorithm was logistic regression (20/25 studies); however, none of the six which tested multiple algorithms identified it as highest performing algorithm. The effect of various study design characteristics on performance was evaluated in order to provide context to the limitations of highly performing models. Models used a variety of constructs, which affected both their performance and their viability for implementation in routine practice. Consultation with stakeholders is necessary to identify priorities for model refinement and to create a benchmark of acceptable performance for implementation in clinical practice.

Validation of general pain scores from multidomain assessment tools in stroke.

Purpose: We describe how well general pain reported in multidomain assessment tools correlated with pain-specific assessment tools; associations between general pain, activities of daily living and independence after stroke. Materials and methods: Analyses of individual participant data (IPD) from the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive (VISTA) described correlation coefficients examining (i) direct comparisons of assessments from pain-specific and multidomain assessment tools that included pain, (ii) indirect comparisons of pain assessments with the Barthel Index (BI) and modified Rankin Scale (mRS), and (iii) whether pain identification could be enhanced by accounting for reported usual activities, self-care, mobility and anxiety/depression; factors associated with pain. Results: European Quality of Life 3- and 5-Level (EQ-5D-3L and EQ-5D-5L), RAND 36 Item Health Survey 1.0 (SF-36) or the 0-10 Numeric Pain Rating Scale (NPRS) were available from 10/94 studies (IPD = 10,002). The 0-10 NPRS was the only available pain-specific assessment tool and was a reference for comparison with other tools. Pearson correlation coefficients between the 0-10 NPRS and (A) the EQ-5D-3L and (B) EQ5D-5 L were r = 0.572 (n = 436) and r = 0.305 (n = 1,134), respectively. mRS was better aligned with pain by EQ-5D-3L (n = 8,966; r = 0.340) than by SF-36 (n = 623; r = 0.318). BI aligned better with pain by SF-36 (n = 623; r = -0.320). Creating a composite score using the EQ-5D 3 L and 5 L comprising pain, mobility, usual-activities, self-care and anxiety/depression did not improve correlation with the 0-10 NPRS. Discussion: The EQ-5D-3L pain domain aligned better than the EQ-5D-5L with the 0-10 NPRS and may inform general pain description where resources and assessment burden hinder use of additional, pain-specific assessments.

Real-world severe COVID-19 outcomes associated with use of antivirals and neutralising monoclonal antibodies in Scotland.

We sought to investigate the incidence of severe COVID-19 outcomes after treatment with antivirals and neutralising monoclonal antibodies, and estimate the comparative effectiveness of treatments in community-based individuals. We conducted a retrospective cohort study investigating clinical outcomes of hospitalisation, intensive care unit admission and death, in those treated with antivirals and monoclonal antibodies for COVID-19 in Scotland between December 2021 and September 2022. We compared the effect of various treatments on the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes, stratified by most prevalent sub-lineage at that time, and controlling for comorbidities and other patient characteristics. We identified 14,365 individuals treated for COVID-19 during our study period, some of whom were treated for multiple infections. The incidence of severe COVID-19 outcomes (inpatient admission or death) in community-treated patients (81% of all treatment episodes) was 1.2% (n = 137/11894, 95% CI 1.0-1.4), compared to 32.8% in those treated in hospital for acute COVID-19 (re-admissions or death; n = 40/122, 95% CI 25.1-41.5). For community-treated patients, there was a lower risk of severe outcomes (inpatient admission or death) in younger patients, and in those who had received three or more COVID-19 vaccinations. During the period in which BA.2 was the most prevalent sub-lineage in the UK, sotrovimab was associated with a reduced treatment effect compared to nirmaltrelvir + ritonavir. However, since BA.5 has been the most prevalent sub-lineage in the UK, both sotrovimab and nirmaltrelvir + ritonavir were associated with similarly lower incidence of severe outcomes than molnupiravir. Around 1% of those treated for COVID-19 with antivirals or neutralising monoclonal antibodies required hospital admission. During the period in which BA.5 was the prevalent sub-lineages in the UK, molnupiravir was associated with the highest incidence of severe outcomes in community-treated patients.