Do species factories exist? Detecting exceptional patterns of evolution in the mammalian fossil record.

A species factory refers to the source that gives rise to an exceptionally large number of species. However, what is it exactly: a place, a time or a combination of places, times and environmental conditions, remains unclear. Here we search for species factories computationally, for which we develop statistical approaches to detect origination, extinction and sorting hotspots in space and time in the fossil record. Using data on European Late Cenozoic mammals, we analyse where, how and how often species factories occur, and how they potentially relate to the dynamics of environmental conditions. We find that in the Early Miocene origination hotspots tend to be located in areas with relatively low estimated net primary productivity. Our pilot study shows that species first occurring in origination hotspots tend to have a longer average longevity and a larger geographical range than other species, thus emphasizing the evolutionary importance of the species factories.

Evolutionary Hysteresis and Ratchets in the Evolution of Periodical Cicadas.

It has been previously hypothesized that the perfectly synchronized mass emergence of periodical cicadas (Magicicada spp.) evolved as a result of a switch from size-based to age-based emergence. In the former case, cicada nymphs emerge immediately (at the first opportunity) on reaching maturity, whereas in the latter case, nymphs wait in order to emerge at a specific age. Here we use an individual-based model to simulate the cicada life cycle and to study the evolution of periodicity. We find that if age-based emergence evolves in a constant abiotic environment, it typically results in a population that is protoperiodic, and synchronous emergence of the whole population is not achieved. However, perfect periodicity and synchronous emergence can be attained, if the abiotic environment changes back and forth between favorable and unfavorable conditions (hysteresis). Furthermore, once age-based emergence evolves, generally it can only be invaded by other age-based emergence strategies with longer cycle lengths (evolutionary ratchet). Together, these mechanisms promote the evolution of long periodic life cycles and synchronous emergence in the Magicicada. We discuss how our results connect to previous theories and recent phylogenetic studies on Magicicada evolution.

Modeling the Population-Level Processes of Biodiversity Gain and Loss at Geological Timescales.

The path of species diversification is commonly observed by inspecting the fossil record. Yet, how species diversity changes at geological timescales relate to lower-level processes remains poorly understood. Here we use mathematical models of spatially structured populations to show that natural selection and gradual environmental change give rise to discontinuous phenotype changes that can be connected to speciation and extinction at the macroevolutionary level. In our model, new phenotypes arise in the middle of the environmental gradient, while newly appearing environments are filled by existing phenotypes shifting their adaptive optima. Slow environmental change leads to loss of phenotypes in the middle of the extant environmental range, whereas fast change causes extinction at one extreme of the environmental range. We compared our model predictions against a well-known yet partially unexplained pattern of intense hoofed mammal diversification associated with grassland expansion during the Late Miocene. We additionally used the model outcomes to cast new insight into Cope's law of the unspecialized. Our general finding is that the rate of environmental change determines where generation and loss of diversity occur in the phenotypic and physical spaces.

Adaptive dynamics on an environmental gradient that changes over a geological time-scale.

The standard adaptive dynamics framework assumes two timescales, i.e. fast population dynamics and slow evolutionary dynamics. We further assume a third timescale, which is even slower than the evolutionary timescale. We call this the geological timescale and we assume that slow climatic change occurs within this timescale. We study the evolution of our model population over this very slow geological timescale with bifurcation plots of the standard adaptive dynamics framework. The bifurcation parameter being varied describes the abiotic environment that changes over the geological timescale. We construct evolutionary trees over the geological timescale and observe both gradual phenotypic evolution and punctuated branching events. We concur with the established notion that branching of a monomorphic population on an environmental gradient only happens when the gradient is not too shallow and not too steep. However, we show that evolution within the habitat can produce polymorphic populations that inhabit steep gradients. What is necessary is that the environmental gradient at some point in time is such that the initial branching of the monomorphic population can occur. We also find that phenotypes adapted to environments in the middle of the existing environmental range are more likely to branch than phenotypes adapted to extreme environments.

Hybridization selects for prime-numbered life cycles in Magicicada: An individual-based simulation model of a structured periodical cicada population.

We investigate competition between separate periodical cicada populations each possessing different life-cycle lengths. We build an individual-based model to simulate the cicada life cycle and allow random migrations to occur between patches inhabited by the different populations. We show that if hybridization between different cycle lengths produces offspring that have an intermediate life-cycle length, then predation acts disproportionately to select against the hybrid offspring. This happens because they emerge in low densities without the safety-in-numbers provided by either parent population. Thus, prime-numbered life cycles that can better avoid hybridization are favored. However, we find that this advantage of prime-numbered cycles occurs only if there is some mechanism that can occasionally synchronize emergence between local populations in sufficiently many patches.