Health impact of policies to reduce agriculture-related air pollutants in the UK: The relative contribution of change in PM2.5 exposure and diets to morbidity and mortality.

Food systems can negatively impact health outcomes through unhealthy diets and indirectly through ammonia emissions originating from agricultural production, which contribute to air pollution and consequently cardiovascular and respiratory health outcomes. In the UK, ammonia emissions from agriculture have not declined in the same way as other air pollutants in recent years. We applied a novel integrated modelling framework to assess the health impacts from six ammonia reduction scenarios to 2030: two agriculture scenarios - a "Current trends" scenario projecting current mitigation measures to reflect a low ambition future, and "High ambition mitigation" based on measures included in the Climate Change Committee's Balanced Pathway to Net Zero; three dietary scenarios - a "Business as usual" based on past trajectories, "Fiscal" applying 20% tax on meat and dairy and 20% subsidy on fruit and vegetables, and "Innovation" applying a 30% switch to plant-based alternatives; one combination of "High ambition mitigation" and "Innovation". Compared to "Current trends", the "High ambition mitigation" scenario would result in a reduction in premature mortality of 13,000, increase life years by 90,000 and reduce incidence of respiratory diseases by 270,000 cases over a 30 year period. Compared to Business as Usual, the dietary scenarios would reduce the number of premature deaths by 65,000 and 550,000-600,000 life years gained over 30 years, with most of the benefits gained by reducing ischemic heart disease (incidence reduction: 190,000). The "High ambition combination" would lead to 67,000 deaths averted, 536,000 incidence reductions and 650,000 life-years gained. For all scenarios, older age groups and those living in lower income households would experience the greatest benefits, because of higher underlying mortality rates or higher levels of risk factors. Our study shows that combining mitigation policies targeting agricultural production systems with diet-related policies would lead to significant reductions in emissions and improvement in health outcomes.

Early life PM2.5 exposure, childhood cognitive ability and mortality between age 11 and 86: A record-linkage life-course study from Scotland.

BACKGROUND: Living in areas with high air pollution concentrations is associated with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Exposure in sensitive developmental periods might be long-lasting but studies with very long follow-up are rare, and mediating pathways between early life exposure and life-course mortality are not fully understood. METHODS: Data were drawn from the Scottish Longitudinal Study Birth Cohort of 1936, a representative record-linkage study comprising 5% of the Scottish population born in 1936. Participants had valid age 11 cognitive ability test scores along with linked mortality data until age 86. Fine particle (PM2.5) concentrations estimated with the EMEP4UK atmospheric chemistry transport model were linked to participants' residential address derived from the National Identity Register in 1939 (age 3). Confounder-adjusted Cox regression estimated associations between PM2.5 and mortality; regression-based causal mediation analysis explored mediation through childhood cognitive ability. RESULTS: The final sample consisted of 2734 individuals with 1608 deaths registered during the 1,833,517 person-months at risk follow-up time. Higher early life PM2.5 exposure increased the risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01-1.04 per 10 µg m-3 increment), associations were stronger for mortality between age 65 and 86. PM2.5 increased the risk of cancer-related mortality (HR = 1.05, 95% CI: 1.02-1.08), especially for lung cancer among females (HR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.02-1.21), but not for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Higher PM2.5 in early life (≥50 µg m-3) was associated with lower childhood cognitive ability, which, in turn, increased the risk of all-cause mortality and mediated 25% of the total associations. CONCLUSIONS: In our life-course study with 75-year of continuous mortality records, we found that exposure to air pollution in early life was associated with higher mortality in late adulthood, and that childhood cognitive ability partly mediated this relationship. Findings suggest that past air pollution concentrations will likely impact health and longevity for decades to come.

Comment on Pescott & Jitlal 2020: Failure to account for measurement error undermines their conclusion of a weak impact of nitrogen deposition on plant species richness.

Estimation of the impacts of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition on ecosystems and biodiversity is a research imperative. Analyses of large-scale spatial gradients, where an observed response is correlated with measured or modelled deposition, have been an important source of evidence. A number of problems beset this approach. For example, if responses are spatially aggregated then treating each location as statistically independent can lead to biased confidence intervals and a greater probably of false positive results. Using methods that account for residual spatial autocorrelation, Pescott & Jitlal (2020) re-analysed two large-scale spatial gradient datasets from Britain where modelled N deposition at 5 × 5 km resolution had been previously correlated with species richness in small quadrats. They found that N deposition effects were weaker than previously demonstrated leading them to conclude that "previous estimates of Ndep impacts on richness from space-for-time substitution studies are likely to have been over-estimated". We use a simulation study to show that their conclusion is unreliable despite them recognising that an influential fraction of the residual spatially structured variation could itself be attributable to N deposition. This arises because the covariate used was modelled N deposition at 5 × 5 km resolution leaving open the possibility that measured or modelled N deposition at finer resolutions could explain more variance in the response. Explicitly treating this as spatially auto-correlated error ignores this possibility and leads directly to their unreliable conclusion. We further demonstrate the plausibility of this scenario by showing that significant variation in N deposition at the 1 km square resolution is indeed averaged at 5 × 5 km resolution. Further analyses are required to explore whether estimation of the size of the N deposition effect on plant species richness and other measures of biodiversity is indeed dependent on the accuracy and hence measurement error of the N deposition covariate. Until then the conclusions of Pescott & Jitlal (2020) should be considered premature.

Chronic atmospheric reactive N deposition has breached the N sink capacity of a northern ombrotrophic peatbog increasing the gaseous and fluvial N losses.

Peatlands play an important role in modulating the climate, mainly through sequestration of carbon dioxide into peat carbon, which depends on the availability of reactive nitrogen (Nr) to mosses. Atmospheric Nr deposition in the UK has been above the critical load for functional and structural changes to peatland mosses, thus threatening to accelerate their succession by vascular plants and increasing the possibility of Nr export to downstream ecosystems. The N balance of peatlands has received comparatively little attention, mainly due to the difficulty in measuring gaseous N losses as well as the Nr inputs due to biological nitrogen fixation (BNF). In this study we have estimated the mean annual N balance of an ombrotrophic bog (Migneint, North Wales) by measuring in situ N2 + N2O gaseous fluxes and also BNF in peat and mosses. Fluvial N export was monitored through a continuous record of DON flux, while atmospheric N deposition was modelled on a 5 × 5 km grid. The mean annual N mass balance was slightly positive (0.7 ± 4.1 kg N ha-1 y-1) and varied interannually indicating the fragile status of this bog ecosystem that has reached N saturation and is prone to becoming a net N source. Gaseous N losses were a major N output term accounting for 70% of the N inputs, mainly in the form of the inert N2 gas, thus providing partial mitigation to the adverse effects of chronic Nr enrichment. BNF was suppressed by 69%, compared to rates in pristine bogs, but was still active, contributing ~2% of the N inputs. The long-term peat N storage rate (8.4 ± 0.8 kg N ha-1 y-1) cannot be met by the measured N mass balance, showing that the bog catchment is losing more N than it can store due its saturated status.

Life Course Air Pollution Exposure and Cognitive Decline: Modelled Historical Air Pollution Data and the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936.

BACKGROUND: Air pollution has been consistently linked with dementia and cognitive decline. However, it is unclear whether risk is accumulated through long-term exposure or whether there are sensitive/critical periods. A key barrier to clarifying this relationship is the dearth of historical air pollution data. OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate the feasibility of modelling historical air pollution data and using them in epidemiologicalmodels. METHODS: Using the EMEP4UK atmospheric chemistry transport model, we modelled historical fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations for the years 1935, 1950, 1970, 1980, and 1990 and combined these with contemporary modelled data from 2001 to estimate life course exposure in 572 participants in the Lothian Birth Cohort 1936 with lifetime residential history recorded. Linear regression and latent growth models were constructed using cognitive ability (IQ) measured by the Moray House Test at the ages of 11, 70, 76, and 79 years to explore the effects of historical air pollution exposure. Covariates included sex, IQ at age 11 years, social class, and smoking. RESULTS: Higher air pollution modelled for 1935 (when participants would have been in utero) was associated with worse change in IQ from age 11-70 years (ß = -0.006, SE = 0.002, p = 0.03) but not cognitive trajectories from age 70-79 years (p > 0.05). There was no support for other critical/sensitive periods of exposure or an accumulation of risk (all p > 0.05). CONCLUSION: The life course paradigm is essential in understanding cognitive decline and this is the first study to examine life course air pollution exposure in relation to cognitive health.

What is the most ecologically-meaningful metric of nitrogen deposition?

Nitrogen (N) deposition poses a severe risk to global terrestrial ecosystems, and managing this threat is an important focus for air pollution science and policy. To understand and manage the impacts of N deposition, we need metrics which accurately reflect N deposition pressure on the environment, and are responsive to changes in both N deposition and its impacts over time. In the UK, the metric typically used is a measure of total N deposition over 1-3 years, despite evidence that N accumulates in many ecosystems and impacts from low-level exposure can take considerable time to develop. Improvements in N deposition modelling now allow the development of metrics which incorporate the long-term history of pollution, as well as current exposure. Here we test the potential of alternative N deposition metrics to explain vegetation compositional variability in British semi-natural habitats. We assembled 36 individual datasets representing 48,332 occurrence records in 5479 quadrats from 1683 sites, and used redundancy analyses to test the explanatory power of 33 alternative N metrics based on national pollutant deposition models. We find convincing evidence for N deposition impacts across datasets and habitats, even when accounting for other large-scale drivers of vegetation change. Metrics that incorporate long-term N deposition trajectories consistently explain greater compositional variance than 1-3 year N deposition. There is considerable variability in results across habitats and between similar metrics, but overall we propose that a thirty-year moving window of cumulative deposition is optimal to represent impacts on plant communities for application in science, policy and management.

Nutrient fluxes from domestic wastewater: A national-scale historical perspective for the UK 1800-2010.

Nutrient emissions in human waste and wastewater effluent fluxes from domestic sources are quantified for the UK over the period 1800-2010 based on population data from UK Census returns. The most important drivers of change have been the introduction of the water closet (flush toilet) along with population growth, urbanization, connection to sewer, improvements in wastewater treatment and use of phosphorus in detergents. In 1800, the population of the UK was about 12 million and estimated emissions in human waste were 37kt N, 6.2kt P and 205ktorganicC/year. This would have been recycled to land with little or no sewage going directly to rivers or coastal waters. By 1900, population had increased to 35.6 million and some 145kt N were emitted in human waste but, with only the major urban areas connected to sewers, only about 19kt N were discharged in sewage effluent. With the use of phosphorus in detergents, estimated phosphorus emissions peaked at around 63.5ktP/year in the 1980s, with about 28ktP/year being discharged in sewage effluent. By 2010, population had increased to 63 million with estimated emissions of 263kt N, 43.6kt P and 1460ktorganicC/year, and an estimated effluent flux of 104kt N, 14.8kt P and 63kt organic C. Despite improvements in wastewater treatment, current levels of nutrient fluxes in sewage effluent are substantially higher than those in the early 20th century.