Prediction on the spatial distribution of the seropositive rate of schistosomiasis in Hunan Province, China: a machine learning model integrated with the Kriging method.

Schistosomiasis remains a formidable challenge to global public health. This study aims to predict the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis seropositive rates in Hunan Province, pinpointing high-risk transmission areas and advocating for tailored control measures in low-endemic regions. Six machine learning models and their corresponding hybrid machine learning-Kriging models were employed to predict the seropositive rate. The optimal model was selected through internal and external validations to simulate the spatial distribution of seropositive rates. Our results showed that the hybrid machine learning-Kriging model demonstrated superior predictive performance compared to basic machine learning model and the Cubist-Kriging model emerged as the most optimal model for this study. The predictive map revealed elevated seropositive rates around Dongting Lake and its waterways with significant clustering, notably in the central and northern regions of Yiyang City and the northeastern areas of Changde City. The model identified gross domestic product, annual average wind speed and the nearest distance from the river as the top three predictors of seropositive rates, with annual average daytime surface temperature contributing the least. In conclusion, our research has revealed that integrating the Kriging method significantly enhances the predictive performance of machine learning models. We developed a Cubist-Kriging model with high predictive performance to forecast the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis seropositive rates. These findings provide valuable guidance for the precise prevention and control of schistosomiasis.

Elucidating the role of Rhodiola rosea L. in sepsis-induced acute lung injury via network pharmacology: emphasis on inflammatory response, oxidative stress, and the PI3K-AKT pathway.

CONTEXT: Sepsis-induced acute lung injury (ALI) is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Rhodiola rosea L. (Crassulaceae) (RR) and its extracts have shown anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, immunomodulatory, and lung-protective effects. OBJECTIVE: This study elucidates the molecular mechanisms of RR against sepsis-induced ALI. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The pivotal targets of RR against sepsis-induced ALI and underlying mechanisms were revealed by network pharmacology and molecular docking. Human umbilical vein endothelial cells (HUVECs) were stimulated by 1 µg/mL lipopolysaccharide for 0.5 h and treated with 6.3, 12.5, 25, 50, 100, and 200 µg/mL RR for 24 h. Then, the lipopolysaccharide-stimulated HUVECs were subjected to cell counting kit-8 (CCK-8), enzyme-linked immunosorbent, apoptosis, and Western blot analyses. C57BL/6 mice were divided into sham, model, low-dose (40 mg/kg), mid-dose (80 mg/kg), and high-dose (160 mg/kg) RR groups. The mouse model was constructed through caecal ligation and puncture, and histological, apoptosis, and Western blot analyses were performed for further validation. RESULTS: We identified six hub targets (MPO, HRAS, PPARG, FGF2, JUN, and IL6), and the PI3K-AKT pathway was the core pathway. CCK-8 assays showed that RR promoted the viability of the lipopolysaccharide-stimulated HUVECs [median effective dose (ED50) = 18.98 µg/mL]. Furthermore, RR inhibited inflammation, oxidative stress, cell apoptosis, and PI3K-AKT activation in lipopolysaccharide-stimulated HUVECs and ALI mice, which was consistent with the network pharmacology results. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION: This study provides foundational knowledge of the effective components, potential targets, and molecular mechanisms of RR against ALI, which could be critical for developing targeted therapeutic strategies for sepsis-induced ALI.

Clinical applications and utility of ctDNA in cervical cancer and its precursor lesions: from screening to predictive biomarker.

Cervical cancer is a leading cause of gynecological cancer death in the world. Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the most causative factor of cervical cancer. In addition, many genetic factors are involved in cervical cancer development. Most studies focus on cervical samples to do research work about cervical cancer and precancerous lesions, but no sensitive or specific biomarkers were found. High-throughput genomic technologies are able to capture information from tumors and precancerous lesions in blood, thus providing a new way for the early diagnosis of cervical precancer and cervical cancer. Blood is an ideal specimen for detecting cancer biomarkers because it contains a lot of information, such as circulating tumor cells and circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA). This article reviews the clinical use and challenges of blood ctDNA testing in patients with cervical precancer and cervical cancer.

Evaluation of phase-adjusted interventions for COVID-19 using an improved SEIR model.

A local COVID-19 outbreak with two community clusters occurred in a large industrial city, Shaoxing, China, in December 2021 after serial interventions were imposed. We aimed to understand the reason by analysing the characteristics of the outbreak and evaluating the effects of phase-adjusted interventions. Publicly available data from 7 December 2021 to 25 January 2022 were collected to analyse the epidemiological characteristics of this outbreak. The incubation period was estimated using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method. A well-fitted extended susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model was used to simulate the impact of different interventions under various combination of scenarios. There were 387 SARS-CoV-2-infected cases identified, and 8.3% of them were initially diagnosed as asymptomatic cases. The estimated incubation period was 5.4 (95% CI 5.2-5.7) days for all patients. Strengthened measures of comprehensive quarantine based on tracing led to less infections and a shorter duration of epidemic. With a same period of incubation, comprehensive quarantine was more effective in containing the transmission than other interventions. Our findings reveal an important role of tracing and comprehensive quarantine in blocking community spread when a cluster occurred. Regions with tense resources can adopt home quarantine as a relatively affordable and low-impact intervention measure compared with centralized quarantine.

Surgical and oncological outcomes of laparoscopic right hemicolectomy (D3 + CME) for colon cancer: A prospective single-center cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Complete mesocolic excision (CME) or D3 lymphadenectomy led to survival benefits for locally advanced right colon cancer, but with vague definitions in anatomy and debated surgical hazard in clinic. Aiming to achieve a precise definition of it in anatomy, we proposed laparoscopic right hemicolectomy (D3 + CME) as a novel procedure for colon cancer. However, the surgical and oncological results of this procedure in clinic were uncertain. METHODS: We performed a cohort study involving prospective data collected from a single-center in China. Data from all patients who underwent right hemicolectomy between January 2014 and December 2018 were included. We compared the surgical and oncological outcomes between D3 + CME and conventional CME. RESULTS: After implementation of exclusion criteria, a total of 442 patients were included. D3 + CME group performed better in lymph nodes harvested (25.0 [17.0, 33.8] vs. 18.0 [14.0, 25.0], P < 0.001) and the proportion of intraoperative blood loss ≥ 50 mL (31.7% vs. 51.8%, P < 0.001); no significant difference was observed in the complication rates between two groups. Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that a better cumulative 5-year disease-free survival (91.3% vs. 82.2%, P = 0.026) and a better cumulative 5-year overall survival (95.2% vs. 86.1%, P = 0.012) were obtained in the D3 + CME group. Multivariate COX regression revealed that D3 + CME was an independent protective factor for disease-free survival (P = 0.026). CONCLUSION: D3 + CME could improve surgical and oncological outcomes simultaneously for right colon cancer compared to conventional CME. Large-scale randomized controlled trials were further required to confirm this conclusion, if possible.

Optogenetic stimulation of ventral tegmental area dopaminergic neurons in a female rodent model of depression: The effect of different stimulation patterns.

Major depressive disorder is one of the most common mental disorders, and more than 300 million of people suffer from depression worldwide. Recent clinical trials indicate that deep brain stimulation of the superolateral medial forebrain bundle (mfb) can have rapid and long-term antidepressant effects in patients with treatment-resistant depression. However, the mechanisms of action are elusive. In this study, using female rats, we demonstrate the antidepressant effects of selective optogenetic stimulation of the ventral tegmental area's dopaminergic (DA) neurons passing through the mfb and compare different stimulation patterns. Chronic mild unpredictable stress (CMUS) induced depressive-like, but not anxiety-like phenotype. Short-term and long-term stimulation demonstrated antidepressant effect (OSST) and improved anxiolytic effect (EPM), while long-term stimulation during CMUS induction prevented depressive-like behavior (OSST and USV) and improved anxiolytic effect (EPM). The results highlight that long-term accumulative stimulation on DA pathways is required for antidepressant and anxiolytic effect.

Heterogeneity in Estimates of Incidence and Prevalence of Narcolepsy: A Systematic Review and Meta-Regression Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Narcolepsy is a chronic neurological disorder. The diagnostic criteria of narcolepsy evolve from clinical symptoms to molecular biomarkers, along with the understanding of its clinical nature and pathogenesis. Estimates of incidence and prevalence of narcolepsy vary between studies, while the contribution of changing diagnostic criteria to the variation remains unclear. We aimed to explore sources of heterogeneity in estimates of incidence and prevalence, with a particular focus on diagnostic criteria. METHODS: We searched 5 databases for observational studies on the incidence or prevalence of narcolepsy published before October 14, 2021. Subgroup analyses and meta-regression were used to assess the impact of diagnostic criteria on incidence/prevalence of narcolepsy after adjusting for age-group, region, study period, vaccination status, index date, and type of narcolepsy. RESULTS: Thirty-five studies were selected from 2,833 articles. The estimates of incidence and prevalence were wide-ranging with high heterogeneity (incidence I2 = 99.8%; prevalence I2 = 99.7%), from 0.06 to 6.56 per 100,000 person-years for incidence and from 1.05 to 79.40 per 100,000 population for prevalence, respectively. Totally 10 diagnostic criteria were used, including the 1st revised edition of International Classification of Diseases (ICSD-1), ICSD-2, ICSD-3, the 8th revision of International Classification of Diseases (ICD-8), ICD-9, ICD-10, Brighton collaboration case definition (Brighton), Mayo classification, the Ullanlinna Narcolepsy Scale, and clinical symptoms with the multiple sleep latency test. ICD tended to provide higher estimates of incidence/prevalence than Brighton (incidence odds ratio [OR] 1.38, [95% CI: 1.02, 1.86]; prevalence OR 1.50, [95% CI: 1.04, 2.39]). No significant difference was found in estimates of two rates between ICSD and Brighton. The incidence was higher for children than adults (OR 1.61, [95% CI: 1.25, 2.07]) and for individuals vaccinated with Pandemrix than those unvaccinated (OR 6.49, [95% CI: 3.86, 10.91]). CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of incidence/prevalence of narcolepsy could not be pooled reliably with substantial heterogeneity. Incidence/prevalence studies using ICSD and Brighton provided lower estimates than studies using ICD and other criteria. Diagnostic criteria should be standardized when comparing or pooling the incidence/prevalence to understand the epidemiology of narcolepsy. Future studies are needed to focus on the at-risk population for the etiology investigation of narcolepsy.

Neuromodulation in Psychiatric disorders: Experimental and Clinical evidence for reward and motivation network Deep Brain Stimulation: Focus on the medial forebrain bundle.

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) in psychiatric illnesses has been clinically tested over the past 20 years. The clinical application of DBS to the superolateral branch of the medial forebrain bundle in treatment-resistant depressed patients-one of several targets under investigation-has shown to be promising in a number of uncontrolled open label trials. However, there are remain numerous questions that need to be investigated to understand and optimize the clinical use of DBS in depression, including, for example, the relationship between the symptoms, the biological substrates/projections and the stimulation itself. In the context of precision and customized medicine, the current paper focuses on clinical and experimental research of medial forebrain bundle DBS in depression or in animal models of depression, demonstrating how clinical and scientific progress can work in tandem to test the therapeutic value and investigate the mechanisms of this experimental treatment. As one of the hypotheses is that depression engenders changes in the reward and motivational networks, the review looks at how stimulation of the medial forebrain bundle impacts the dopaminergic system.

Assessing COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy, Confidence, and Public Engagement: A Global Social Listening Study.

BACKGROUND: Monitoring public confidence and hesitancy is crucial for the COVID-19 vaccine rollout. Social media listening (infoveillance) can not only monitor public attitudes on COVID-19 vaccines but also assess the dissemination of and public engagement with these opinions. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess global hesitancy, confidence, and public engagement toward COVID-19 vaccination. METHODS: We collected posts mentioning the COVID-19 vaccine between June and July 2020 on Twitter from New York (United States), London (United Kingdom), Mumbai (India), and Sao Paulo (Brazil), and Sina Weibo posts from Beijing (China). In total, we manually coded 12,886 posts from the five global metropolises with high COVID-19 burdens, and after assessment, 7032 posts were included in the analysis. We manually double-coded these posts using a coding framework developed according to the World Health Organization's Confidence, Complacency, and Convenience model of vaccine hesitancy, and conducted engagement analysis to investigate public communication about COVID-19 vaccines on social media. RESULTS: Among social media users, 36.4% (571/1568) in New York, 51.3% (738/1440) in London, 67.3% (144/214) in Sao Paulo, 69.8% (726/1040) in Mumbai, and 76.8% (2128/2770) in Beijing indicated that they intended to accept a COVID-19 vaccination. With a high perceived risk of getting COVID-19, more tweeters in New York and London expressed a lack of confidence in vaccine safety, distrust in governments and experts, and widespread misinformation or rumors. Tweeters from Mumbai, Sao Paulo, and Beijing worried more about vaccine production and supply, whereas tweeters from New York and London had more concerns about vaccine distribution and inequity. Negative tweets expressing lack of vaccine confidence and misinformation or rumors had more followers and attracted more public engagement online. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy is prevalent worldwide, and negative tweets attract higher engagement on social media. It is urgent to develop an effective vaccine campaign that boosts public confidence and addresses hesitancy for COVID-19 vaccine rollouts.

Distribution of Metastatic Cancer Cells in Colorectal Mesentery.

BACKGROUND: To investigate the distribution of metastatic cancer cells in the mesentery (referred to as metastasis V) and enrich the understanding of the metastasis of colorectal cancer. METHODS: A total of two hundred ninety-nine patients who received colorectal operations at the Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Tongji Hospital, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology between April 2018 and December 2018 were included. Samples were acquired from the dissected mesentery after the operation, and hematoxylin-eosin staining or immunohistochemistry was used to detect metastatic cancer cells. Pathological factors, including tumor position, tumor size, invasion depth, tumor differentiation, lymph node involvement, local vessel invasion, and perineural invasion, were recorded. RESULTS: Metastatic cancer cells in the colorectal mesentery (metastasis V) were detected in 62 of 299 patients. Metastasis V was closely correlated with tumor invasion depth, lymph node metastasis, tumor differentiation, and perineural and vessel invasion by cancer cells. Metastasis V occurred more frequently in patients with T3 stage (26.27%) and T4 stage (40.00%) than in patients with T1 and T2 stages (0% and 2%, respectively). Metastasis V was frequently detected in patients with N2a and N2b stage tumors (51.72% and 61.54%, respectively). Metastasis V was more frequently detected in patients with perineural metastasis and local vessel invasion. In addition, metastasis V incidences in colon and rectal cancer were similar. CONCLUSION: The incidence rate of metastasis V is correlated with tumor staging factors and occurs more frequently in advanced-stage patients.

A Murine Model for Human ECO Syndrome Reveals a Critical Role of Intestinal Cell Kinase in Skeletal Development.

An autosomal-recessive inactivating mutation R272Q in the human intestinal cell kinase (ICK) gene caused profound multiplex developmental defects in human endocrine-cerebro-osteodysplasia (ECO) syndrome. ECO patients exhibited a wide variety of skeletal abnormalities, yet the underlying mechanisms by which ICK regulates skeletal development remained largely unknown. The goal of this study was to understand the structural and mechanistic basis underlying skeletal anomalies caused by ICK dysfunction. Ick R272Q knock-in transgenic mouse model not only recapitulated major ECO skeletal defects such as short limbs and polydactyly but also revealed a deformed spine with defective intervertebral disk. Loss of ICK function markedly reduced mineralization in the spinal column, ribs, and long bones. Ick mutants showed a significant decrease in the proliferation zone of long bones and the number of type X collagen-expressing hypertrophic chondrocytes in the spinal column and the growth plate of long bones. These results implicate that ICK plays an important role in bone and cartilage development by promoting chondrocyte proliferation and maturation. Our findings provided new mechanistic insights into the skeletal phenotype of human ECO and ECO-like syndromes.

Analysis on the pathogenesis and treatment progress of NRG1 fusion-positive non-small cell lung cancer.

Lung cancer persistently leads as the primary cause of morbidity and mortality among malignancies. A notable increase in the prevalence of lung adenocarcinoma has become evident in recent years. Although targeted therapies have shown in treating certain subsets of non-small cell lung cancers (NSCLC), a significant proportion of patients still face suboptimal therapeutic outcomes. Neuregulin-1 (NRG1), a critical member of the NRG gene family, initially drew interest due to its distribution within the nascent ventricular endocardium, showcasing an exclusive presence in the endocardium and myocardial microvessels. Recent research has highlighted NRG1's pivotal role in the genesis and progression across a spectrum of tumors, influencing molecular perturbations across various tumor-associated signaling pathways. This review provides a concise overview of NRG1, including its expression patterns, configuration, and fusion partners. Additionally, we explore the unique features and potential therapeutic strategies for NRG1 fusion-positive occurrences within the context of NSCLC.

Copper-Mediated Cyclization of Terminal Alkynes with CF3-Imidoyl Sulfoxonium Ylides To Construct 5-Trifluoromethylpyrroles.

A copper-mediated [3 + 2] cyclization of CF3-imidoyl sulfoxonium ylides and terminal alkynes has been demonstrated. This work provides a practical approach for assembling 5-trifluoromethylpyrroles with the merits of a broad substrate scope, good functional tolerance, and mild reaction conditions. Control experiments and DFT studies indicate that this reaction may involve the addition of π-bonds of terminal alkynes by copper-carbene radicals and hydrogen migration.

Changing seroprevalence of schistosomiasis japonica in China from 1982 to 2020: A systematic review and spatial analysis.

BACKGROUND: Schistosomiasis is a global public health issue. In China, while the seroprevalence of Schistosomiasis japonica has currently reduced to a relatively low level, risk of infection still exists in certain areas. However, there has been a lack of comprehensive research on the long-term trends of national seroprevalence, changes across age groups, and characteristics in spatial distribution, which is crucial for effectively targeting interventions and achieving the goal of eliminating schistosomiasis by 2030. Our study aimed to address this gap by analyzing the long-term trends of Schistosomiasis japonica seroprevalence in China from 1982 to 2020 based on the data from diverse sources spanning a period of 39 years. METHODOLOGY: Seroprevalence data were collected from literature databases and national schistosomiasis surveillance system. Meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the seroprevalence. Joinpoint model was used to identify changing trend and inflection point. Inverse distance weighted interpolation was used to determine the spatial distribution of seroprevalence. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The seroprevalence decreased from 34.8% in 1982 to 2.4% in 2020 in China. Before 2006, the seroprevalence was higher in the middle age group, and a pattern of increasing with age was observed afterwards. The areas with high seroprevalence existed in Dongting Lake, Poyang Lake, Jianghan Plain, the Anhui branch of the Yangtze River and some localized mountainous regions in Sichuan and Yunnan provinces. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: There was a significant decline in the seroprevalence of Schistosomiasis japonica from 1982 to 2020 in China. Nevertheless, schistosomiasis has not been eradicated; thus, implementing precise and personalized monitoring measures is crucial for the elimination of schistosomiasis, especially in endemic areas and with a particular focus on the elderly.

Impact of historical disease conditions on mortality and life expectancy in patients with advanced schistosomiasis in Hunan Province, China.

BACKGROUND: Although the prognosis of advanced schistosomiasis patients has significantly improved, the impact of historical disease conditions on life expectancy remains unclear. METHODS: Utilizing data from an advanced schistosomiasis cohort (n=10 362) from 2008 to 2019 in Hunan, China, we examined five historical disease conditions: times of praziquantel treatment, the history of ascites, splenectomy, upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) and hepatic coma. Using latent class analysis, participants were categorized into three groups: Group 1 (characterized by no risk conditions), Group 2 (had ≤3 times of praziquantel treatment without UGIB history) and Group 3 (had UGIB history). Life expectancies were calculated using the life table method. RESULTS: At the age of 45 y, patients with ≤3 times of praziquantel treatment, a history of ascites, UGIB, hepatic coma and those without splenectomy exhibited lower life expectancies. Groups 1, 2 and 3 had estimated life expectancies of 32.32, 26.76 and 25.38 y, respectively. Compared with Group 1, women in Group 3 experienced greater life expectancy loss than those in Group 2, with the difference narrowing with age. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the consideration of overall physical conditions, tailored treatment and healthcare, along with public health interventions targeting diverse populations, could mitigate the prevalence of poor disease conditions and premature deaths.

Three Gorges Dam: the changing trend of snail density in the Yangtze River basin between 1990 and 2019.

BACKGROUND: The area of Oncomelania hupensis snail remains around 3.6 billion m2, with newly emerging and reemergent habitats continuing to appear in recent years. This study aimed to explore the long-term dynamics of snail density before and after the operation of Three Gorges Dam (TGD). METHODS: Data of snail survey between 1990 and 2019 were collected from electronic databases and national schistosomiasis surveillance. Meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the snail density. Joinpoint model was used to identify the changing trend and inflection point. Inverse distance weighted interpolation (IDW) was used to determine the spatial distribution of recent snail density. RESULTS: A total of 3777 snail survey sites with a precise location of village or beach were identified. For the downstream area, snail density peaked in 1998 (1.635/0.11 m2, 95% CI: 1.220, 2.189) and fluctuated at a relatively high level before 2003, then declined steadily from 2003 to 2012. Snail density maintained lower than 0.150/0.11 m2 between 2012 and 2019. Joinpoint model identified the inflection of 2003, and a significant decreasing trend from 2003 to 2012 with an annual percentage change (APC) being - 20.56% (95% CI: - 24.15, - 16.80). For the upstream area, snail density peaked in 2005 (0.760/0.11 m2, 95% CI: 0.479, 1.207) and was generally greater than 0.300/0.11 m2 before 2005. Snail density was generally lower than 0.150/0.11 m2 after 2011. Snail density showed a significant decreasing trend from 1990 to 2019 with an APC being - 6.05% (95% CI: - 7.97, - 7.09), and no inflection was identified. IDW showed the areas with a high snail density existed in Poyang Lake, Dongting Lake, Jianghan Plain, and the Anhui branch of the Yangtze River between 2015 and 2019. CONCLUSIONS: Snail density exhibited a fluctuating downward trend in the Yangtze River basin. In the downstream area, the operation of TGD accelerated the decline of snail density during the first decade period, then snail density fluctuated at a relatively low level. There still exists local areas with a high snail density. Long-term control and monitoring of snails need to be insisted on and strengthened.

Three Gorges Dam: Potential differential drivers and trend in the spatio-temporal evolution of the change in snail density based on a Bayesian spatial-temporal model and 5-year longitudinal study.

BACKGROUND: Snail abundance varies spatially and temporally. Few studies have elucidated the different effects of the determinants affecting snail density between upstream and downstream areas of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD). We therefore investigated the differential drivers of changes in snail density in these areas, as well as the spatial-temporal effects of these changes. METHODS: A snail survey was conducted at 200 sites over a 5-year period to monitor dynamic changes in snail abundance within the Yangtze River basin. Data on corresponding variables that might affect snail abundance, such as meteorology, vegetation, terrain and economy, were collected from multiple data sources. A Bayesian spatial-temporal modeling framework was constructed to explore the differential determinants driving the change in snail density and the spatial-temporal effects of the change. RESULTS: Volatility in snail density was unambiguously detected in the downstream area of the TGD, while a small increment in volatility was detected in the upstream area. Regarding the downstream area of the TGD, snail density was positively associated with the average minimum temperature in January of the same year, the annual Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of the previous year and the second, third and fourth quartile, respectively, of average annual relative humidity of the previous year. Snail density was negatively associated with the average maximum temperature in July of the previous year and annual nighttime light of the previous year. An approximately inverted "U" curve of relative risk was detected among sites with a greater average annual ground surface temperature in the previous year. Regarding the upstream area, snail density was positively associated with NDVI and with the second, third and fourth quartile, respectively, of total precipitation of the previous year. Snail density was negatively associated with slope. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrated a rebound in snail density between 2015 and 2019. In particular, temperature, humidity, vegetation and human activity were the main drivers affecting snail abundance in the downstream area of the TGD, while precipitation, slope and vegetation were the main drivers affecting snail abundance in the upstream area. These findings can assist authorities to develop and perform more precise strategies for surveys and control of snail populations.

Global Distribution of Culex tritaeniorhynchus and Impact Factors.

Culex tritaeniorhynchus is the primary vector of Japanese encephalitis (JE) and has a wide global distribution. However, the current and future geographic distribution maps of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in global are still incomplete. Our study aims to predict the potential distribution of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus in current and future conditions to provide a guideline for the formation and implementation of vector control strategies all over the world. We collected and screened the information on the occurrence of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus by searching the literature and online databases and used ten algorithms to investigate its global distribution and impact factors. Cx. tritaeniorhynchus had been detected in 41 countries from 5 continents. The final ensemble model (TSS = 0.864 and AUC = 0.982) indicated that human footprint was the most important factor for the occurrence of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus. The tropics and subtropics, including southeastern Asia, Central Africa, southeastern North America and eastern South America, showed high habitat suitability for Cx. tritaeniorhynchus. Cx. tritaeniorhynchus is predicted to have a wider distribution in all the continents, especially in Western Europe and South America in the future under two extreme emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP1-2.6). Targeted strategies for the control and prevention of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus should be further strengthened.

Prediction of Oncomelania hupensis distribution in association with climate change using machine learning models.

BACKGROUND: Oncomelania hupensis is the sole intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum. Its emergence and recurrence pose a constant challenge to the elimination of schistosomiasis in China. It is important to accurately predict the snail distribution for schistosomiasis prevention and control. METHODS: Data describing the distribution of O. hupensis in 2016 was obtained from the Yunnan Institute of Endemic Disease Control and Prevention. Eight machine learning algorithms, including eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), generalized boosting model (GBM), neural network (NN), classification and regression trees (CART), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), and generalized additive model (GAM), were employed to explore the impacts of climatic, geographical, and socioeconomic variables on the distribution of suitable areas for O. hupensis. Predictions of the distribution of suitable areas for O. hupensis were made for various periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2070s) under different climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585). RESULTS: The RF model exhibited the best performance (AUC: 0.991, sensitivity: 0.982, specificity: 0.995, kappa: 0.942) and the CART model performed the worst (AUC: 0.884, sensitivity: 0.922, specificity: 0.943, kappa: 0.829). Based on the RF model, the top six important variables were as follows: Bio15 (precipitation seasonality) (33.6%), average annual precipitation (25.2%), Bio2 (mean diurnal temperature range) (21.7%), Bio19 (precipitation of the coldest quarter) (14.5%), population density (13.5%), and night light index (11.1%). The results demonstrated that the overall suitable habitats for O. hupensis were predominantly distributed in the schistosomiasis-endemic areas located in northwestern Yunnan Province under the current climate situation and were predicted to expand north- and westward due to climate change. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed that the prediction of the current distribution of O. hupensis corresponded well with the actual records. Furthermore, our study provided compelling evidence that the geographical distribution of snails was projected to expand toward the north and west of Yunnan Province in the coming decades, indicating that the distribution of snails is driven by climate factors. Our findings will be of great significance for formulating effective strategies for snail control.