Quantification of Food Waste Disposal in the United States: A Meta-Analysis.

Food waste has major consequences for social, nutritional, economic, and environmental issues, and yet the amount of food waste disposed in the U.S. has not been accurately quantified. We introduce the transparent and repeatable methods of meta-analysis and systematic reviewing to determine how much food is discarded in the U.S., and to determine if specific factors drive increased disposal. The aggregate proportion of food waste in U.S. municipal solid waste from 1995 to 2013 was found to be 0.147 (95% CI 0.137-0.157) of total disposed waste, which is lower than that estimated by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the same period (0.176). The proportion of food waste increased significantly with time, with the western U.S. region having consistently and significantly higher proportions of food waste than other regions. There were no significant differences in food waste between rural and urban samples, or between commercial/institutional and residential samples. The aggregate disposal rate for food waste was 0.615 pounds (0.279 kg) (95% CI 0.565-0.664) of food waste disposed per person per day, which equates to over 35.5 million tons (32.2 million tonnes) of food waste disposed annually in the U.S.

A review of national municipal solid waste generation assessments in the USA.

Municipal solid waste (MSW) is generated in very large quantities (probably between 200 and 400 million tonnes per year) in the USA. MSW is generated at millions of places and there is no one precise, general definition for MSW that is generally applied-despite US Environmental Protection Agency efforts. As an element of both commerce and politics, reporting may be framed towards particular ends. Therefore, the two best known assessments of the quantity of US MSW production differ by approximately 50%. The assessors understand some of the reasons for the differences, but our analysis suggests that there are profound factors, not openly discussed, that affect estimates of waste stream size. Many regulators propose that strict, universal formats be adopted so that there is consistency in waste reporting; we note that this will not change the materials requiring management, only what is counted. Therefore, the most accurate assessments may be those where controllable errors are minimized but which suffer from differing definitions of 'MSW'.

Better public decisions on COVID-19: A thought experiment in metrics.

OBJECTIVES: Poor decision-making is a hallmark of the COVID-19 pandemic. Better metrics would help improve decision-makers' understanding of the scope of the pandemic and allow for better public understanding/review of these decisions. STUDY DESIGN: Two novel metrics of disease impact were compared with more commonly used standard metrics. METHODS: A multi-criteria decision analysis technique, used previously to support metric selection in solid waste planning, was adapted to compare number of deaths, hospitalisations, positive test results and positivity rates (standard COVID-19 impact metrics) with a simple model that estimates the total number of potentially infectious people in an area and an associated odds ratio for infectious people. RESULTS: The odds ratio and total infectious population estimate metrics scored better in a comparison analysis than number of deaths, hospitalisations, positive test results and positivity rates (in that order). CONCLUSIONS: The novel metrics provide a more effective means of communication than other more common measures of the outbreak. These superior metrics should support decision-making processes and result in a more informed population.

Estimates of worst case baseline West Nile virus disease effects in a suburban New York county.

Serosurveys conducted where West Nile Virus (WNV) caused health impacts were used to construct a model of potential worst case health impacts in a suburban setting. This model addressed two common public perceptions regarding mosquito control activities and WNV disease: it is not a disease of major consequence, and exposed populations quickly become immune. Comparisons to blood bank infection and serious disease incidence data were similar to some of the serosurvey model results. Accounting for theoretical increasing immunity, even over a 20-year period, did not substantially reduce the potential impacts. The model results were approximately an order of magnitude greater than those actually experienced in Suffolk County, NY; differences in mosquito populations and/or the degree of mosquito control between Suffolk County and serosurvey sites seem to be the reason for the differences.

Fate of methoprene in temperate salt marsh ditches following aerial applications.

Aerial applications of liquid methoprene are used in salt marshes to control mosquitoes by preventing adult emergence. Despite concern about toxicity to non-target organisms, little is known about environmental concentrations after applications, nor methoprene's persistence in salt marsh environments. Aqueous and sediment samples were collected from two marshes receiving weekly applications. Aqueous samples were collected as early as 30 min after applications and as long as nine days afterwards; sediment samples were taken within hours of application and as long as 19 days post-application. Use of time-of-flight liquid chromatography - mass spectral analysis allowed for ultra-low detection limits (0.5 ng/L) in water samples. The data show loss of nearly all methoprene from 1 m deep marsh ditches within 1 day and presence but not accumulation of methoprene in marsh sediments despite repeated applications. Methoprene concentrations observed in salt-marsh mosquito ditches were below those found to be of toxicological significance in other studies.

Multimodel Validity Assessment of Groundwater Flow Simulation Models Using Area Metric Approach.

We demonstrate the application of the Area Metric developed by Ferson et al. (2008) for multimodel validity assessment. The Area Metric quantified the degree of models' replicative validity: the degree of agreement between the observed data and the corresponding simulated outputs represented as their empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDFs). This approach was used to rank multiple representations of a case study groundwater flow model of a landfill by their Area Metric scores. A multimodel approach allows to account for uncertainties that may either be epistemic (from lack of knowledge) or aleatory (from variability inherent in the system). The Area Metric approach enables explicit incorporation of model uncertainties, epistemic as well as aleatory, into validation assessment. The proposed approach informs understanding of the collected data and that of the model domain. It avoids model overfitting to a particular system state, and in fact is a blind assessment of the models' validity: models are not adjusted, or updated, to achieve a better numerical fit. This approach assesses the degree of models' validity, in place of the typical binary model validation/invalidation process. Collectively, this increases confidence in the model's representativeness that, in turn, reduces risk to model users.

Quantitative assessments of municipal waste management systems: using different indicators to compare and rank programs in New York State.

The primary objective of waste management technologies and policies in the United States is to reduce the harmful environmental impacts of waste, particularly those relating to energy consumption and climate change. Performance indicators are frequently used to evaluate the environmental quality of municipal waste systems, as well as to compare and rank programs relative to each other in terms of environmental performance. However, there currently is no consensus on the best indicator for performing these environmental evaluations. The purpose of this study is to examine the common performance indicators used to assess the environmental benefits of municipal waste systems to determine if there is agreement between them regarding which system performs best environmentally. Focus is placed on how indicator selection influences comparisons between municipal waste management programs and subsequent system rankings. The waste systems of ten municipalities in the state of New York, USA, were evaluated using each common performance indicator and Spearman correlations were calculated to see if there was a significant association between system rank orderings. Analyses showed that rank orders of waste systems differ substantially when different indicators are used. Therefore, comparative system assessments based on indicators should be considered carefully, especially those intended to gauge environmental quality. Insight was also gained into specific factors which may lead to one system achieving higher rankings than another. However, despite the insufficiencies of indicators for comparative quality assessments, they do provide important information for waste managers and they can assist in evaluating internal programmatic performance and progress. To enhance these types of assessments, a framework for scoring indicators based on criteria that evaluate their utility and value for system evaluations was developed. This framework was used to construct an improved model for waste system performance assessments.

Cost effectiveness of recycling: a systems model.

Financial analytical models of waste management systems have often found that recycling costs exceed direct benefits, and in order to economically justify recycling activities, externalities such as household expenses or environmental impacts must be invoked. Certain more empirically based studies have also found that recycling is more expensive than disposal. Other work, both through models and surveys, have found differently. Here we present an empirical systems model, largely drawn from a suburban Long Island municipality. The model accounts for changes in distribution of effort as recycling tonnages displace disposal tonnages, and the seven different cases examined all show that curbside collection programs that manage up to between 31% and 37% of the waste stream should result in overall system savings. These savings accrue partially because of assumed cost differences in tip fees for recyclables and disposed wastes, and also because recycling can result in a more efficient, cost-effective collection program. These results imply that increases in recycling are justifiable due to cost-savings alone, not on more difficult to measure factors that may not impact program budgets.