Dietary intake of advanced glycation end products (AGEs) and changes in body weight in European adults.

PURPOSE: Advanced glycation end products (AGEs) can be formed in foods by the reaction of reducing sugars with proteins, and have been shown to induce insulin resistance and obesity in experimental studies. We examined the association between dietary AGEs intake and changes in body weight in adults over an average of 5 years of follow-up. METHODS: A total of 255,170 participants aged 25-70 years were recruited in ten European countries (1992-2000) in the PANACEA study (Physical Activity, Nutrition, Alcohol, Cessation of smoking, Eating out of home in relation to Anthropometry), a sub-cohort of the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition). Body weight was measured at recruitment and self-reported between 2 and 11 years later depending on the study center. A reference database for AGEs was used containing UPLC-MS/MS-measured Nε-(carboxymethyl)-lysine (CML), Nε-(1-carboxyethyl)-lysine (CEL), and Nδ-(5-hydro-5-methyl-4-imidazolon-2-yl)-ornithine (MG-H1) in 200 common European foods. This reference database was matched to foods and decomposed recipes obtained from country-specific validated dietary questionnaires in EPIC and intake levels of CEL, CML, and MG-H1 were estimated. Associations between dietary AGEs intake and body weight change were estimated separately for each of the three AGEs using multilevel mixed linear regression models with center as random effect and dietary AGEs intake and relevant confounders as fixed effects. RESULTS: A one-SD increment in CEL intake was associated with 0.111 kg (95% CI 0.087-0.135) additional weight gain over 5 years. The corresponding additional weight gain for CML and MG-H1 was 0.065 kg (0.041-0.089) and 0.034 kg (0.012, 0.057), respectively. The top six food groups contributing to AGEs intake, with varying proportions across the AGEs, were cereals/cereal products, meat/processed meat, cakes/biscuits, dairy, sugar and confectionary, and fish/shellfish. CONCLUSION: In this study of European adults, higher intakes of AGEs were associated with marginally greater weight gain over an average of 5 years of follow-up.

Timing of HPV16-E6 antibody seroconversion before OPSCC: findings from the HPVC3 consortium.

BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus type 16 (HPV16)-E6 antibodies are detectable in peripheral blood before diagnosis in the majority of HPV16-driven oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC), but the timing of seroconversion is unknown. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We formed the HPV Cancer Cohort Consortium which comprises nine population cohorts from Europe, North America and Australia. In total, 743 incident OPSCC cases and 5814 controls provided at least one pre-diagnostic blood sample, including 111 cases with multiple samples. Median time between first blood collection and OPSCC diagnosis was 11.4 years (IQR = 6-11 years, range = 0-40 years). Antibodies against HPV16-E6 were measured by multiplex serology (GST fusion protein based Luminex assay). RESULTS: HPV16-E6 seropositivity was present in 0.4% of controls (22/5814; 95% CI 0.2% to 0.6%) and 26.2% (195/743; 95% CI 23.1% to 29.6%) of OPSCC cases. HPV16-E6 seropositivity increased the odds of OPSCC 98.2-fold (95% CI 62.1-155.4) in whites and 17.2-fold (95% CI 1.7-170.5) in blacks. Seropositivity in cases was more frequent in recent calendar periods, ranging from 21.9% pre-1996 to 68.4% in 2005 onwards, in those with blood collection near diagnosis (lead time <5 years). HPV16-E6 seropositivity increased with lead time: 0.0%, 13.5%, 23.7%, and 38.9% with lead times of >30 years (N = 24), 20-30 years (N = 148), 10-20 years (N = 228), and <10 years (N = 301 cases) (p-trend < 0.001). Of the 47 HPV16-E6 seropositive cases with serially-collected blood samples, 17 cases seroconverted during follow-up, with timing ranging from 6 to 28 years before diagnosis. For the remaining 30 cases, robust seropositivity was observed up to 25 years before diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: The immune response to HPV16-driven tumorigenesis is most often detectable several decades before OPSCC diagnosis. HPV16-E6 seropositive individuals face increased risk of OPSCC over several decades.

Identifying sources of measurement error in assessing dietary intakes - Results of a multi-country ring-trial.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Epidemiological investigations include dietary intakes as primary exposures or potential confounders. To reduce bias, data collection protocols include the administration of questionnaires together with measurements of biomarkers. Some error, however, remains and needs to be considered in the analysis and interpretation of results. The European Food Safety Authority supported a ring-trial to compare the precision and reproducibility of dietary assessment methods applied in Europe. METHODS AND RESULTS: Software applications used to collect 24-hour recalls and food records in six countries (Estonia, Italy, Latvia, Portugal, Spain, and Sweden) were assessed. The intake of 256 foods was identically reported to each method. Experienced interviewers participated and were instructed to repeat national protocols closely. The error in recording quantities, compared with reference values, was variable but in about 60% of recorded quantities was in the range of ±20%. Errors were however unsystematic and independent of the food type or quantification method used - although food pictures performed better. The reproducibility of some tools was limited. The methods generally captured additional ingredients (usually flavoring agents), but not sweetening agents or fortification and failed to record packaging information in about 60% of the cases. CONCLUSION: In a design that eliminated respondent bias, this study indicates that softwares, supporting databases and interviewers generally introduce random error in dietary assessments. The inclusion of large sample sizes and food pictures to quantify portions, together with enhanced attention on interviewers' training, standardisation of procedures and regular tool upgrades are essential in assuring a study's quality and comparability.

Circulating plasma phospholipid fatty acids and risk of pancreatic cancer in a large European cohort.

There are both limited and conflicting data on the role of dietary fat and specific fatty acids in the development of pancreatic cancer. In this study, we investigated the association between plasma phospholipid fatty acids and pancreatic cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. The fatty acid composition was measured by gas chromatography in plasma samples collected at recruitment from375 incident pancreatic cancer cases and375 matched controls. Associations of specific fatty acids with pancreatic cancer risk were evaluated using multivariable conditional logistic regression models with adjustment for established pancreatic cancer risk factors. Statistically significant inverse associations were found between pancreatic cancer incidence and levels of heptadecanoic acid (ORT3-T1 [odds ratio for highest versus lowest tertile] =0.63; 95%CI[confidence interval] = 0.41-0.98; ptrend = 0.036), n-3 polyunsaturated α-linolenic acid (ORT3-T1 = 0.60; 95%CI = 0.39-0.92; ptrend = 0.02) and docosapentaenoic acid (ORT3-T1 = 0.52; 95%CI = 0.32-0.85; ptrend = 0.008). Industrial trans-fatty acids were positively associated with pancreatic cancer risk among men (ORT3-T1 = 3.00; 95%CI = 1.13-7.99; ptrend = 0.029), while conjugated linoleic acids were inversely related to pancreatic cancer among women only (ORT3-T1 = 0.37; 95%CI = 0.17-0.81; ptrend = 0.008). Among current smokers, the long-chain n-6/n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids ratio was positively associated with pancreatic cancer risk (ORT3-T1 = 3.40; 95%CI = 1.39-8.34; ptrend = 0.007). Results were robust to a range of sensitivity analyses. Our findings suggest that higher circulating levels of saturated fatty acids with an odd number of carbon atoms and n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids may be related to lower risk of pancreatic cancer. The influence of some fatty acids on the development of pancreatic cancer may be sex-specific and modulated by smoking.

Impact of prediagnostic smoking and smoking cessation on colorectal cancer prognosis: a meta-analysis of individual patient data from cohorts within the CHANCES consortium.

Background: Smoking has been associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality in previous studies and might also be associated with prognosis after CRC diagnosis. However, current evidence on smoking in association with CRC prognosis is limited. Patients and methods: For this individual patient data meta-analysis, sociodemographic and smoking behavior information of 12 414 incident CRC patients (median age at diagnosis: 64.3 years), recruited within 14 prospective cohort studies among previously cancer-free adults, was collected at baseline and harmonized across studies. Vital status and causes of death were collected for a mean follow-up time of 5.1 years following cancer diagnosis. Associations of smoking behavior with overall and CRC-specific survival were evaluated using Cox regression and standard meta-analysis methodology. Results: A total of 5229 participants died, 3194 from CRC. Cox regression revealed significant associations between former [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.12; 95 % confidence interval (CI) = 1.04-1.20] and current smoking (HR = 1.29; 95% CI = 1.04-1.60) and poorer overall survival compared with never smoking. Compared with current smoking, smoking cessation was associated with improved overall (HR<10 years = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.69-0.88; HR≥10 years = 0.78; 95% CI = 0.63-0.97) and CRC-specific survival (HR≥10 years = 0.76; 95% CI = 0.67-0.85). Conclusion: In this large meta-analysis including primary data of incident CRC patients from 14 prospective cohort studies on the association between smoking and CRC prognosis, former and current smoking were associated with poorer CRC prognosis compared with never smoking. Smoking cessation was associated with improved survival when compared with current smokers. Future studies should further quantify the benefits of nonsmoking, both for cancer prevention and for improving survival among CRC patients, in particular also in terms of treatment response.

Mediterranean diet and hip fracture incidence among older adults: the CHANCES project.

The association between adherence to Mediterranean diet (MD) and hip fracture incidence is not yet established. In a diverse population of elderly, increased adherence to MD was associated with lower hip fracture incidence. Except preventing major chronic diseases, adhering to MD might have additional benefits in lowering hip fracture risk. INTRODUCTION: Hip fractures constitute a major public health problem among older adults. Latest evidence links adherence to Mediterranean diet (MD) with reduced hip fracture risk, but still more research is needed to elucidate this relationship. The potential association of adherence to MD with hip fracture incidence was explored among older adults. METHODS: A total of 140,775 adults (116,176 women, 24,599 men) 60 years and older, from five cohorts from Europe and the USA, were followed-up for 1,896,219 person-years experiencing 5454 hip fractures. Diet was assessed at baseline by validated, cohort-specific, food-frequency questionnaires, and hip fractures were ascertained through patient registers or telephone interviews/questionnaires. Adherence to MD was evaluated by a scoring system on a 10-point scale modified to be applied also to non-Mediterranean populations. In order to evaluate the association between MD and hip fracture incidence, cohort-specific hazard ratios (HR), adjusted for potential confounders, were estimated using Cox proportional-hazards regression and pooled estimates were subsequently derived implementing random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: A two-point increase in the score was associated with a significant 4% decrease in hip fracture risk (pooled adjusted HR 0.96; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.92-0.99, pheterogeneity = 0.446). In categorical analyses, hip fracture risk was lower among men and women with moderate (HR 0.93; 95% CI 0.87-0.99) and high (HR 0.94; 95% CI 0.87-1.01) adherence to the score compared with those with low adherence. CONCLUSIONS: In this large sample of older adults from Europe and the USA, increased adherence to MD was associated with lower hip fracture incidence.

Alcohol consumption and risk of urothelial cell bladder cancer in the European prospective investigation into cancer and nutrition cohort.

Findings on the association between alcohol consumption and bladder cancer are inconsistent. We investigated that association in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort. We included 476,160 individuals mostly aged 35-70 years, enrolled in ten countries and followed for 13.9 years on average. Hazard ratios (HR) for developing urothelial cell carcinoma (UCC; 1,802 incident cases) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards models. Alcohol consumption at baseline and over the life course was analyzed, as well as different types of beverages (beer, wine, spirits). Baseline alcohol intake was associated with a statistically nonsignificant increased risk of UCC (HR 1.03; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00-1.06 for each additional 12 g/day). HR in smokers was 1.04 (95% CI 1.01-1.07). Men reporting high baseline intakes of alcohol (>96 g/day) had an increased risk of UCC (HR 1.57; 95% CI 1.03-2.40) compared to those reporting moderate intakes (<6 g/day), but no dose-response relationship emerged. In men, an increased risk of aggressive forms of UCC was observed even at lower doses (>6 to 24 g/day). Average lifelong alcohol intake was not associated with the risk of UCC, however intakes of spirits > 24 g/day were associated with an increased risk of UCC in men (1.38; 95% CI 1.01-1.91) and smokers (1.39; 95% CI 1.01-1.92), compared to moderate intakes. We found no association between alcohol and UCC in women and never smokers. In conclusion, we observed some associations between alcohol and UCC in men and in smokers, possibly because of residual confounding by tobacco smoking.

Biomarkers of folate and vitamin B12 and breast cancer risk: report from the EPIC cohort.

Epidemiological studies have reported inconsistent findings for the association between B vitamins and breast cancer (BC) risk. We investigated the relationship between biomarkers of folate and vitamin B12 and the risk of BC in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Plasma concentrations of folate and vitamin B12 were determined in 2,491 BC cases individually matched to 2,521 controls among women who provided baseline blood samples. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios by quartiles of either plasma B vitamin. Subgroup analyses by menopausal status, hormone receptor status of breast tumors (estrogen receptor [ER], progesterone receptor [PR] and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 [HER2]), alcohol intake and MTHFR polymorphisms (677C > T and 1298A > C) were also performed. Plasma levels of folate and vitamin B12 were not significantly associated with the overall risk of BC or by hormone receptor status. A marginally positive association was found between vitamin B12 status and BC risk in women consuming above the median level of alcohol (ORQ4-Q1 = 1.26; 95% CI 1.00-1.58; Ptrend = 0.05). Vitamin B12 status was also positively associated with BC risk in women with plasma folate levels below the median value (ORQ4-Q1 = 1.29; 95% CI 1.02-1.62; Ptrend = 0.03). Overall, folate and vitamin B12 status was not clearly associated with BC risk in this prospective cohort study. However, potential interactions between vitamin B12 and alcohol or folate on the risk of BC deserve further investigation.

A prospective evaluation of plasma phospholipid fatty acids and breast cancer risk in the EPIC study.

BACKGROUND: Intakes of specific fatty acids have been postulated to impact breast cancer risk but epidemiological data based on dietary questionnaires remain conflicting. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We assessed the association between plasma phospholipid fatty acids and breast cancer risk in a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Sixty fatty acids were measured by gas chromatography in pre-diagnostic plasma phospholipids from 2982 incident breast cancer cases matched to 2982 controls. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate relative risk of breast cancer by fatty acid level. The false discovery rate (q values) was computed to control for multiple comparisons. Subgroup analyses were carried out by estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor expression in the tumours. RESULTS: A high level of palmitoleic acid [odds ratio (OR) for the highest quartile compared with the lowest OR (Q4-Q1) 1.37; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.14-1.64; P for trend = 0.0001, q value = 0.004] as well as a high desaturation index (DI16) (16:1n-7/16:0) [OR (Q4-Q1), 1.28; 95% C, 1.07-1.54; P for trend = 0.002, q value = 0.037], as biomarkers of de novo lipogenesis, were significantly associated with increased risk of breast cancer. Levels of industrial trans-fatty acids were positively associated with ER-negative tumours [OR for the highest tertile compared with the lowest (T3-T1)=2.01; 95% CI, 1.03-3.90; P for trend = 0.047], whereas no association was found for ER-positive tumours (P-heterogeneity =0.01). No significant association was found between n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids and breast cancer risk, overall or by hormonal receptor. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that increased de novo lipogenesis, acting through increased synthesis of palmitoleic acid, could be a relevant metabolic pathway for breast tumourigenesis. Dietary trans-fatty acids derived from industrial processes may specifically increase ER-negative breast cancer risk.

Excess mortality after hip fracture in elderly persons from Europe and the USA: the CHANCES project.

BACKGROUND: Hip fractures are associated with diminished quality of life and survival especially amongst the elderly. OBJECTIVE: All-cause mortality after hip fracture was investigated to assess its magnitude. METHODS: A total of 122 808 participants from eight cohorts in Europe and the USA were followed up for a mean of 12.6 years, accumulating 4273 incident hip fractures and 27 999 deaths. Incident hip fractures were assessed through telephone interviews/questionnaires or national inpatient/fracture registries, and causes of death were verified with death certificates. Cox proportional hazards models and the time-dependent variable methodology were used to assess the association between hip fracture and mortality and its magnitude at different time intervals after the injury in each cohort. We obtained the effect estimates through a random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Hip fracture was positively associated with increased all-cause mortality; the hazard ratio (HR) in the fully adjusted model was 2.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.76-2.57, after adjusting for potential confounders. This association was stronger amongst men [HR: 2.39, 95% CI: 1.72-3.31] than amongst women [HR: 1.92, 95% CI: 1.54-2.39], although this difference was not significant. Mortality was higher during the first year after the hip fracture [HR: 2.78, 95% CI: 2.12-3.64], but it remained elevated without major fluctuations after longer time since hip fracture [HR (95% CI): 1.89 (1.50-2.37) after 1-4 years; 2.15 (1.81-2.55) after 4-8 years; 1.79 (1.57-2.05) after 8 or more years]. CONCLUSION: In this large population-based sample of older persons across eight cohorts, hip fracture was associated with excess short- and long-term all-cause mortality in both sexes.

Med Diet 4.0: the Mediterranean diet with four sustainable benefits.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize the multiple dimensions and benefits of the Mediterranean diet as a sustainable diet, in order to revitalize this intangible food heritage at the country level; and to develop a multidimensional framework - the Med Diet 4.0 - in which four sustainability benefits of the Mediterranean diet are presented in parallel: major health and nutrition benefits, low environmental impacts and richness in biodiversity, high sociocultural food values, and positive local economic returns. DESIGN: A narrative review was applied at the country level to highlight the multiple sustainable benefits of the Mediterranean diet into a single multidimensional framework: the Med Diet 4.0. Setting/subjects We included studies published in English in peer-reviewed journals that contained data on the characterization of sustainable diets and of the Mediterranean diet. The methodological framework approach was finalized through a series of meetings, workshops and conferences where the framework was presented, discussed and ultimately refined. RESULTS: The Med Diet 4.0 provides a conceptual multidimensional framework to characterize the Mediterranean diet as a sustainable diet model, by applying principles of sustainability to the Mediterranean diet. CONCLUSIONS: By providing a broader understanding of the many sustainable benefits of the Mediterranean diet, the Med Diet 4.0 can contribute to the revitalization of the Mediterranean diet by improving its current perception not only as a healthy diet but also a sustainable lifestyle model, with country-specific and culturally appropriate variations. It also takes into account the identity and diversity of food cultures and systems, expressed within the notion of the Mediterranean diet, across the Mediterranean region and in other parts of the world. Further multidisciplinary studies are needed for the assessment of the sustainability of the Mediterranean diet to include these new dimensions.

HbA1c levels in non-diabetic older adults - No J-shaped associations with primary cardiovascular events, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality after adjustment for confounders in a meta-analysis of individual participant data from six cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: To determine the shape of the associations of HbA1c with mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in non-diabetic individuals and explore potential explanations. METHODS: The associations of HbA1c with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality and primary cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction or stroke) were assessed in non-diabetic subjects ≥50 years from six population-based cohort studies from Europe and the USA and meta-analyzed. Very low, low, intermediate and increased HbA1c were defined as <5.0, 5.0 to <5.5, 5.5 to <6.0 and 6.0 to <6.5% (equals <31, 31 to <37, 37 to <42 and 42 to <48 mmol/mol), respectively, and low HbA1c was used as reference in Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Overall, 6,769 of 28,681 study participants died during a mean follow-up of 10.7 years, of whom 2,648 died of cardiovascular disease. Furthermore, 2,493 experienced a primary cardiovascular event. A linear association with primary cardiovascular events was observed. Adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors explained about 50% of the excess risk and attenuated hazard ratios (95 confidence interval) for increased HbA1c to 1.14 (1.03-1.27), 1.17 (1.00-1.37) and 1.19 (1.04-1.37) for all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality and cardiovascular events, respectively. The six cohorts yielded inconsistent results for the association of very low HbA1c levels with the mortality outcomes and the pooled effect estimates were not statistically significant. In one cohort with a pronounced J-shaped association of HbA1c levels with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (NHANES), the following confounders of the association of very low HbA1c levels with mortality outcomes were identified: race/ethnicity; alcohol consumption; BMI; as well as biomarkers of iron deficiency anemia and liver function. Associations for very low HbA1c levels lost statistical significance in this cohort after adjusting for these confounders. CONCLUSIONS: A linear association of HbA1c levels with primary cardiovascular events was observed. For cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, the observed small effect sizes at both the lower and upper end of HbA1c distribution do not support the notion of a J-shaped association of HbA1c levels because a certain degree of residual confounding needs to be considered in the interpretation of the results.

Meal patterns across ten European countries - results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) calibration study.

OBJECTIVE: To characterize meal patterns across ten European countries participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) calibration study. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study utilizing dietary data collected through a standardized 24 h diet recall during 1995-2000. Eleven predefined intake occasions across a 24 h period were assessed during the interview. In the present descriptive report, meal patterns were analysed in terms of daily number of intake occasions, the proportion reporting each intake occasion and the energy contributions from each intake occasion. SETTING: Twenty-seven centres across ten European countries. SUBJECTS: Women (64 %) and men (36 %) aged 35-74 years (n 36 020). RESULTS: Pronounced differences in meal patterns emerged both across centres within the same country and across different countries, with a trend for fewer intake occasions per day in Mediterranean countries compared with central and northern Europe. Differences were also found for daily energy intake provided by lunch, with 38-43 % for women and 41-45 % for men within Mediterranean countries compared with 16-27 % for women and 20-26 % for men in central and northern European countries. Likewise, a south-north gradient was found for daily energy intake from snacks, with 13-20 % (women) and 10-17 % (men) in Mediterranean countries compared with 24-34 % (women) and 23-35 % (men) in central/northern Europe. CONCLUSIONS: We found distinct differences in meal patterns with marked diversity for intake frequency and lunch and snack consumption between Mediterranean and central/northern European countries. Monitoring of meal patterns across various cultures and populations could provide critical context to the research efforts to characterize relationships between dietary intake and health.

Healthy lifestyle index and risk of gastric adenocarcinoma in the EPIC cohort study.

Several modifiable lifestyle factors, including smoking, alcohol, certain dietary factors and weight are independently associated with gastric cancer (GC); however, their combined impact on GC risk is unknown. We constructed a healthy lifestyle index to investigate the joint influence of these behaviors on GC risk within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. The analysis included 461,550 participants (662 first incident GC cases) with a mean follow-up of 11.4 years. A healthy lifestyle index was constructed, assigning 1 point for each healthy behavior related to smoking status, alcohol consumption and diet quality (represented by the Mediterranean diet) for assessing overall GC and also body mass index for cardia GC and 0 points otherwise. Risk of GC was calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression models while adjusting for relevant confounders. The highest versus lowest score in the healthy lifestyle index was associated with a significant lower risk of GC, by 51% overall (HR 0.49 95% CI 0.35, 0.70), by 77% for cardia GC (HR 0.23 95% CI 0.08, 0.68) and by 47% for noncardia GC (HR 0.53 (95% CI 0.32, 0.87), p-trends<0.001. Population attributable risk calculations showed that 18.8% of all GC and 62.4% of cardia GC cases could have been prevented if participants in this population had followed the healthy lifestyle behaviors of this index. Adopting several healthy lifestyle behaviors including not smoking, limiting alcohol consumption, eating a healthy diet and maintaining a normal weight is associated with a large decreased risk of GC.

Insulin-like growth factor I and risk of epithelial invasive ovarian cancer by tumour characteristics: results from the EPIC cohort.

BACKGROUND: Prospective studies on insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) and epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) risk are inconclusive. Data suggest risk associations vary by tumour characteristics. METHODS: We conducted a nested case-control study in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) to evaluate IGF-I concentrations and EOC risk by tumour characteristics (n=565 cases). Multivariable conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate associations. RESULTS: We observed no association between IGF-I and EOC overall or by tumour characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: In the largest prospective study to date was no association between IGF-I and EOC risk. Pre-diagnostic serum IGF-I concentrations may not influence EOC risk.

An epidemiologic risk prediction model for ovarian cancer in Europe: the EPIC study.

BACKGROUND: Ovarian cancer has a high case-fatality ratio, largely due to late diagnosis. Epidemiologic risk prediction models could help identify women at increased risk who may benefit from targeted prevention measures, such as screening or chemopreventive agents. METHODS: We built an ovarian cancer risk prediction model with epidemiologic risk factors from 202,206 women in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. RESULTS: Older age at menopause, longer duration of hormone replacement therapy, and higher body mass index were included as increasing ovarian cancer risk, whereas unilateral ovariectomy, longer duration of oral contraceptive use, and higher number of full-term pregnancies were decreasing risk. The discriminatory power (overall concordance index) of this model, as examined with five-fold cross-validation, was 0.64 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.57, 0.70). The ratio of the expected to observed number of ovarian cancer cases occurring in the first 5 years of follow-up was 0.90 (293 out of 324, 95% CI: 0.81-1.01), in general there was no evidence for miscalibration. CONCLUSION: Our ovarian cancer risk model containing only epidemiological data showed modest discriminatory power for a Western European population. Future studies should consider adding informative biomarkers to possibly improve the predictive ability of the model.

Fruit and vegetable consumption in relation to hepatocellular carcinoma in a multi-centre, European cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Vegetable and/or fruit intakes in association with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk have been investigated in case-control studies conducted in specific European countries and cohort studies conducted in Asia, with inconclusive results. No multi-centre European cohort has investigated the indicated associations. METHODS: In 486,799 men/women from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition, we identified 201 HCC cases after 11 years median follow-up. We calculated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for HCC incidence for sex-specific quintiles and per 100 g d(-1) increments of vegetable/fruit intakes. RESULTS: Higher vegetable intake was associated with a statistically significant, monotonic reduction of HCC risk: HR (100 g d(-1) increment): 0.83; 95% CI: 0.71-0.98. This association was consistent in sensitivity analyses with no apparent heterogeneity across strata of HCC risk factors. Fruit intake was not associated with HCC incidence: HR (100 g d(-1) increment): 1.01; 95% CI: 0.92-1.11. CONCLUSIONS: Vegetable, but not fruit, intake is associated with lower HCC risk with no evidence for heterogeneity of this association in strata of important HCC risk factors. Mechanistic studies should clarify pathways underlying this association. Given that HCC prognosis is poor and that vegetables are practically universally accessible, our results may be important, especially for those at high risk for the disease.

Diabetes and onset of natural menopause: results from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition.

STUDY QUESTION: Do women who have diabetes before menopause have their menopause at an earlier age compared with women without diabetes? SUMMARY ANSWER: Although there was no overall association between diabetes and age at menopause, our study suggests that early-onset diabetes may accelerate menopause. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Today, more women of childbearing age are being diagnosed with diabetes, but little is known about the impact of diabetes on reproductive health. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: We investigated the impact of diabetes on age at natural menopause (ANM) in 258 898 women from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), enrolled between 1992 and 2000. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Determinant and outcome information was obtained through questionnaires. Time-dependent Cox regression analyses were used to estimate the associations of diabetes and age at diabetes diagnosis with ANM, stratified by center and adjusted for age, smoking, reproductive and diabetes risk factors and with age from birth to menopause or censoring as the underlying time scale. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Overall, no association between diabetes and ANM was found (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.94; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.89-1.01). However, women with diabetes before the age of 20 years had an earlier menopause (10-20 years: HR = 1.43; 95% CI 1.02-2.01, <10 years: HR = 1.59; 95% CI 1.03-2.43) compared with non-diabetic women, whereas women with diabetes at age 50 years and older had a later menopause (HR = 0.81; 95% CI 0.70-0.95). None of the other age groups were associated with ANM. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: Strengths of the study include the large sample size and the broad set of potential confounders measured. However, results may have been underestimated due to survival bias. We cannot be sure about the sequence of the events in women with a late age at diabetes, as both events then occur in a short period. We could not distinguish between type 1 and type 2 diabetes. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Based on the literature, an accelerating effect of early-onset diabetes on ANM might be plausible. A delaying effect of late-onset diabetes on ANM has not been reported before, and is not in agreement with recent studies suggesting the opposite association. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTERESTS: The coordination of EPIC is financially supported by the European Commission (DG-SANCO) and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The national cohorts are supported by Danish Cancer Society (Denmark); Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Générale de l'Education Nationale, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) (France); German Cancer Aid, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ) and Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMMF) (Germany); Ministry of Health and Social Solidarity, Stavros Niarchos Foundation and Hellenic Health Foundation (Greece); Italian Association for Research on Cancer (AIRC) and National Research Council (Italy); Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), Statistics Netherlands (The Netherlands); ERC-2009-AdG 232997 and Nordforsk, Nordic Centre of Excellence programme on Food, Nutrition and Health (Norway); Health Research Fund (FIS), Regional Governments of Andalucía, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia (no. 6236) and Navarra, ISCIII RETIC (RD06/0020) (Spain); Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Scientific Council and Regional Government of Skåne and Västerbotten (Sweden); Cancer Research UK, Medical Research Council, Stroke Association, British Heart Foundation, Department of Health, Food Standards Agency, and Wellcome Trust (UK). None of the authors reported a conflict of interest.

Education, marital status, and risk of hip fractures in older men and women: the CHANCES project.

UNLABELLED: The role of socioeconomic status in hip fracture incidence is unclear. In a diverse population of elderly, higher education was found to be associated with lower, whereas living alone, compared to being married/cohabiting, with higher hip fracture risk. Educational level and marital status may contribute to hip fracture risk. INTRODUCTION: The evidence on the association between socioeconomic status and hip fracture incidence is limited and inconsistent. We investigated the potential association of education and marital status with hip fracture incidence in older individuals from Europe and USA. METHODS: A total of 155,940 participants (79 % women) aged 60 years and older from seven cohorts were followed up accumulating 6456 incident hip fractures. Information on education and marital status was harmonized across cohorts. Hip fractures were ascertained through telephone interviews/questionnaires or through record linkage with registries. Associations were assessed through Cox proportional hazard regression adjusting for several factors. Summary estimates were derived using random effects models. RESULTS: Individuals with higher education, compared to those with low education, had lower hip fracture risk [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.84, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.72-0.95]. Respective HRs were 0.97 (95 % CI 0.82-1.13) for men and 0.75 (95 % CI 0.65-0.85) for women. Overall, individuals living alone, especially those aged 60-69 years, compared to those being married/cohabiting, tended to have a higher hip fracture risk (HR = 1.12, 95 % CI 1.02-1.22). There was no suggestion for heterogeneity across cohorts (P heterogeneity > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The combined data from >150,000 individuals 60 years and older suggest that higher education may contribute to lower hip fracture risk. Furthermore, this risk may be higher among individuals living alone, especially among the age group 60-69 years, when compared to those being married/cohabiting.

Glycemic load and coronary heart disease in a Mediterranean population: the EPIC Greek cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: High glycemic load (GL) has been associated with increased coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. We evaluated whether preference of low-GL foods conveys incremental benefits with respect to CHD, especially to people adhering to the traditional Mediterranean diet (MD). METHODS AND RESULTS: We analyzed data from the Greek European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, including 20,275 participants free of cardiovascular diseases, cancer, or diabetes at baseline and without incident diabetes. Subjects completed a validated, semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire at enrollment. We calculated a 10-point MD adherence score and the dietary GL, and estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for CHD incidence and mortality through Cox proportional hazard regression. After a median follow-up of 10.4 years, 417 participants developed CHD, and 162 died from the disease. A significant positive association of GL with CHD incidence emerged (HR for the highest versus the lowest tertile = 1.41, 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.05-1.90). HRs for CHD mortality exceeded unity but were not statistically significant. The association with GL was stronger among subjects with higher body mass index. High adherence to MD with low/moderate GL was associated with lower risk of CHD incidence (HR = 0.61, CI: 0.39-0.95) and mortality (HR = 0.47, 95% CI: 0.23-96). CONCLUSION: High dietary GL increases the risk of CHD. Compared to a high GL diet with suboptimal adherence to the traditional Mediterranean pattern, a low/moderate GL diet that also conforms to the traditional MD principles could lead to a 40% reduced risk for CHD, and over 50% reduced risk for death from CHD.