A systematic review and meta-analysis to compare the efficacy of acyclovir 3% ophthalmic ointment to idoxuridine in curing herpetic keratitis by Day 7 of treatment.

BACKGROUND: This objective of the review and analysis is to demonstrate that acyclovir (ACV) 3% ophthalmic ointment is superior to idoxuridine (IDU) in treating herpetic keratitis (HK) presenting as dendritic and geographic ulcer sub-types. DATA SOURCES: Publications in human subjects were identified by searching the Ovid MEDLINE database through April 2011, combining medical subject headings (MESH) "Keratitis, Herpetic/" AND "Acyclovir/" limiting by the key words "topical" OR "ointment" and also restricted to MESH "Administration, Topical/" OR "Ointments/". The results were cross checked with the references used in the Cochrane Database Syst Rev. 1:1-134, 2009 and GlaxoSmithKline clinical documents related to acyclovir. STUDY SELECTION: Randomized, double-masked studies in subjects diagnosed with HK with head to head comparator arms of ACV ophthalmic ointment and topical IDU that had actual or calculable healing rates at Day seven. DATA EXTRACTION: Data independently extracted from identified articles by two authors of this manuscript. DATA SYNTHESIS: Data from seven randomized, controlled trials (RCT) evaluating 432 subjects that met inclusion criteria (214 were treated with ACV and 218 were treated with IDU) and had Day seven healing rates calculable. All sub-classified lesions were identified as either dendritic ulcers (n = 185) or geographic ulcers (n = 35). The Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel (CMH) method in Biometrics 10:417-51, 1954 and JNCI 22:719-48, 1959, controlling for study, was performed as the primary analysis using SAS v9. Homogeneity was assessed using Breslow-Day-Tarone (BDT) test in IARC 1:1-32, 1980 and Biometrika 72:91-5, 1985. The analysis was performed with outliers removed to assess their impact. RESULTS: ACV showed statistically significant greater odds of healing HK at Day seven in all subjects (Odds Ratio 3.95, 95% CI2.60, 6.00, p < 0.0001), in dendritic ulcers (Odds Ratio 4.22, 95% CI: 2.14, 8.32; p < 0.0001) and geographic ulcers (Odds Ratio 5.31, 95% CI: 1.09, 25.93; p = 0.0244). CONCLUSION: ACV 3% ophthalmic ointment is a valuable intervention for dendritic and geographic corneal ulcers. ACV and IDU were generally well tolerated in the studies reviewed.

Predictive models of choroidal neovascularization and geographic atrophy incidence applied to clinical trial design.

PURPOSE: To develop comprehensive predictive models for choroidal neovascularization (CNV) and geographic atrophy (GA) incidence within 3 years that can be applied realistically to clinical practice. DESIGN: Retrospective evaluation of data from a longitudinal study to develop and validate predictive models of CNV and GA. METHODS: The predictive performance of clinical, environmental, demographic, and genetic risk factors was explored in regression models, using data from both eyes of 2011 subjects from the Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS). The performance of predictive models was compared using 10-fold cross-validated receiver operating characteristic curves in the training data, followed by comparisons in an independent validation dataset (1410 AREDS subjects). Bayesian trial simulations were used to compare the usefulness of predictive models to screen patients for inclusion in prevention clinical trials. RESULTS: Logistic regression models that included clinical, demographic, and environmental factors had better predictive performance for 3-year CNV and GA incidence (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.87 and 0.89, respectively), compared with simple clinical criteria (AREDS simplified severity scale). Although genetic markers were associated significantly with 3-year CNV (CFH: Y402H; ARMS2: A69S) and GA incidence (CFH: Y402H), the inclusion of genetic factors in the models provided only marginal improvements in predictive performance. CONCLUSIONS: The logistic regression models combine good predictive performance with greater flexibility to optimize clinical trial design compared with simple clinical models (AREDS simplified severity scale). The benefit of including genetic factors to screen patients for recruitment to CNV prevention studies is marginal and is dependent on individual clinical trial economics.