Risk Factors Associated with Dengue Transmission and Spatial Distribution of High Seroprevalence in Schoolchildren from the Urban Area of Medellin, Colombia.

Dengue fever is an increasing health problem in tropical and subtropical regions. During 2010 in Medellin, the younger population presented a particularly high dengue incidence rate. This study estimated dengue virus (DENV) transmission in schoolchildren (aged 5-19 years) in Medellin from 2010 to 2012. A longitudinal serological survey (IgG) and spatial analysis were conducted to determine the distribution of DENV seroprevalence. A total of 4,385 schoolchildren participated for at least one year. Dengue seroprevalence significantly increased during the studied period (53.8% to 64.6%; p < 0.001). A significantly higher seroconversion rate was observed in 2010-2011 (16.8%) compared to 2011-2012 (7.8%). Multivariate regression analysis showed that the main factor associated with the seroprevalence was the aging. Furthermore, in 2010, patients with high socioeconomic status presented a lower risk. Predominant multitypic and DENV4 monotypic antibody responses were demonstrated. Geostatistical analysis evidenced a temporal clustering distribution of DENV seroprevalence in 2010. Population density and Ae. aegypti House Index were significantly correlated with the observed pattern. This study revealed high DENV transmission in schoolchildren determined as "sentinel population." High DENV risk was found in districts with combined poorly socioeconomic conditions and densest human and mosquito populations. These findings may allow to target population for effective prevention and vaccination campaigns.

Tracking dengue virus type 1 genetic diversity during lineage replacement in an hyperendemic area in Colombia.

Dengue virus (DENV) is a flavivirus responsible for the most common and burdensome arthropod-borne viral disease of humans[1]. DENV evolution has been extensively studied on broad geographic and time scales, using sequences from a single gene[2,3]. It is believed that DENV evolution in humans is dominated primarily by purifying selection due to the constraint of maintaining fitness in both humans and mosquitoes[4,5]. Few studies have explored DENV evolutionary dynamics using whole genome sequences, nor have they explored changes in viral diversity that occur during intra-epidemic periods. We used deep sequencing of the viral coding region to characterize DENV-1 evolution in a Colombian population sampled during two high-prevalence dengue seasons in which serotype dominance shifted. Our data demonstrate patterns of strain extinction and replacement within DENV-1 as its prevalence waned and DENV-3 became established. A comparison of whole-genome versus single-gene-based phylogenetic analyses highlights an important difference in evolutionary patterns. We report a trend of higher nonsynonymous to synonymous diversity ratios among non-structural (NS) genes, and statistically significantly higher values among these ratios in the NS1 gene after DENV-1 strain replacement. These results suggest that positive selection could be driving DENV evolution within individual communities. Signals of positive selection coming from distinct samples may be drowned out when combining multiple regions with differing patterns of endemic transmission as commonly done by large-scale geo-temporal assessments. Here, we frame our findings within a small, local transmission history which aids significance. Moreover, these data suggest that the NS1 gene, rather than the E gene, may be a target of positive selection, although not mutually exclusive, and potentially useful sentinel of adaptive changes at the population level.

Evaluation of Commercially Available Assays for Diagnosis of Acute Dengue in Schoolchildren During an Epidemic Period in Medellin, Colombia.

During an active surveillance study in school children in Medellin, we assessed the performance of two diagnostic strategies for dengue virus. A total of 41 patients with suspected dengue acute infection were evaluated. Diagnostic strategies consisted of one combining Panbio(®) Dengue virus IgM and IgG Capture ELISAs (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays) with reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and another using a commercial rapid SD Bioline Dengue Duo (IgG/IgM + NS1 Ag) test. These two strategies were compared with the enzyme-linked immunospot microneutralization test (ELISPOT-MNT). The sensitivity and specificity were 53.9% and 80.0% for the combination of Panbio(®) ELISAs and RT-PCR tests, and 30.8% and 73.3% for the SD Bioline Duo test, respectively. ELISPOT-MNT detected 16.4% additional cases and revealed the presence of neutralizing antibodies in all the acute samples, evidencing that they were all secondary infections. In contrast, Panbio(®) and SD Dengue Duo rapid tests only classified 23.0% and 26.9% of the cases as secondary dengue infections, respectively. Cohen's kappa coefficient and McNemar's association tests demonstrated a significant disagreement between the two diagnostic strategies and ELISPOT-MNT. Overall, these results evidence the relatively poor performances of commercial assays for the diagnosis of acute and secondary dengue infections, compared with ELISPOT-MNT, and raise concern about the accuracy of these assays for the diagnostic of dengue in endemic areas.