Using measures of race to make clinical predictions: Decision making, patient health, and fairness.

The use of race measures in clinical prediction models is contentious. We seek to inform the discourse by evaluating the inclusion of race in probabilistic predictions of illness that support clinical decision making. Adopting a static utilitarian framework to formalize social welfare, we show that patients of all races benefit when clinical decisions are jointly guided by patient race and other observable covariates. Similar conclusions emerge when the model is extended to a two-period setting where prevention activities target systemic drivers of disease. We also discuss non-utilitarian concepts that have been proposed to guide allocation of health care resources.

Poverty-related bandwidth constraints reduce the value of consumption.

Poverty confers many costs on individuals, primarily through direct material deprivation. We hypothesize that these costs may be understated: poverty may also reduce human welfare by decreasing the experiential value of what little the poor are able to consume via reduced bandwidth (cognitive resources)-exerting a de facto "tax" on the value of consumption. We test this hypothesis using a randomized controlled trial in which we experimentally simulate key aspects of poverty that impair bandwidth via methods commonly used in laboratory studies (e.g., memorizing sequences) and via introducing stressors commonly associated with life in poverty (e.g., thinking about financial security and experiencing thirst). Participants then engaged in consumption activities and were asked to rate their enjoyment of these activities. Consistent with our hypothesis, the randomly assigned treatments designed to reduce bandwidth significantly and meaningfully reduced ratings of the consumption activities, with the strongest effects on the consumption of food. Our results shed additional light on how the consequences of poverty on human welfare may compound and motivate future work on the full scope of returns to poverty alleviation efforts.

Changes in Health Care Workers' Economic Outcomes Following Medicaid Expansion.

Importance: The extent to which changes in health sector finances impact economic outcomes among health care workers, especially lower-income workers, is not well known. Objective: To assess the association between state adoption of the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid expansion-which led to substantial improvements in health care organization finances-and health care workers' annual incomes and benefits, and whether these associations varied across low- and high-wage occupations. Design, Setting, and Participants: Difference-in-differences analysis to assess differential changes in health care workers' economic outcomes before and after Medicaid expansion among workers in 30 states that expanded Medicaid relative to workers in 16 states that did not, by examining US individuals aged 18 through 65 years employed in the health care industry surveyed in the 2010-2019 American Community Surveys. Exposure: Time-varying state-level adoption of Medicaid expansion. Main Outcomes and Measures: Primary outcome was annual earned income; secondary outcomes included receipt of employer-sponsored health insurance, Medicaid, and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program benefits. Results: The sample included 1 322 263 health care workers from 2010-2019. Health care workers in expansion states were similar to those in nonexpansion states in age, sex, and educational attainment, but those in expansion states were less likely to identify as non-Hispanic Black. Medicaid expansion was associated with a 2.16% increase in annual incomes (95% CI, 0.66%-3.65%; P = .005). This effect was driven by significant increases in annual incomes among the top 2 highest-earning quintiles (ß coefficient, 2.91%-3.72%), which includes registered nurses, physicians, and executives. Health care workers in lower-earning quintiles did not experience any significant changes. Medicaid expansion was associated with a 3.15 percentage point increase in the likelihood that a health care worker received Medicaid benefits (95% CI, 2.46 to 3.84; P < .001), with the largest increases among the 2 lowest-earning quintiles, which includes health aides, orderlies, and sanitation workers. There were significant decreases in employer-sponsored health insurance and increases in SNAP following Medicaid expansion. Conclusion and Relevance: Medicaid expansion was associated with increases in compensation for health care workers, but only among the highest earners. These findings suggest that improvements in health care sector finances may increase economic inequality among health care workers, with implications for worker health and well-being.

Association Between California's State Insurance Gender Nondiscrimination Act and Utilization of Gender-Affirming Surgery.

Importance: Gender-affirming surgery is often beneficial for gender-diverse or -dysphoric patients. Access to gender-affirming surgery is often limited through restrictive legislation and insurance policies. Objective: To investigate the association between California's 2013 implementation of the Insurance Gender Nondiscrimination Act, which prohibits insurers and health plans from limiting benefits based on a patient's sex, gender, gender identity, or gender expression, and utilization of gender-affirming surgery among California residents. Design, Setting, and Participants: Population epidemiology study of transgender and gender-diverse patients undergoing gender-affirming surgery (facial, chest, and genital surgery) between 2005 and 2019. Utilization of gender-affirming surgery in California before and after implementation of the Insurance Gender Nondiscrimination Act in July 2013 was compared with utilization in Washington and Arizona, control states chosen because of geographic similarity and because they expanded Medicaid on the same date as California-January 1, 2014. The date of last follow-up was December 31, 2019. Exposures: California's Insurance Gender Nondiscrimination Act, implemented on July 9, 2013. Main Outcomes and Measures: Receipt of gender-affirming surgery, defined as undergoing at least 1 facial, chest, or genital procedure. Results: A total of 25 252 patients (California: n = 17 934 [71%]; control: n = 7328 [29%]) had a diagnosis of gender dysphoria. Median ages were 34.0 years in California (with or without gender-affirming surgery), 39 years (IQR, 28-49 years) among those undergoing gender-affirming surgery in control states, and 36 years (IQR, 22-56 years) among those not undergoing gender-affirming surgery in control states. Patients underwent at least 1 gender-affirming surgery within the study period in 2918 (11.6%) admissions-2715 (15.1%) in California vs 203 (2.8%) in control states. There was a statistically significant increase in gender-affirming surgery in the third quarter of July 2013 in California vs control states, coinciding with the timing of the Insurance Gender Nondiscrimination Act (P < .001). Implementation of the policy was associated with an absolute 12.1% (95% CI, 10.3%-13.9%; P < .001) increase in the probability of undergoing gender-affirming surgery in California vs control states observed in the subset of insured patients (13.4% [95% CI, 11.5%-15.4%]; P < .001) but not self-pay patients (-22.6% [95% CI, -32.8% to -12.5%]; P < .001). Conclusions and Relevance: Implementation in California of its Insurance Gender Nondiscrimination Act was associated with a significant increase in utilization of gender-affirming surgery in California compared with the control states Washington and Arizona. These data might inform state legislative efforts to craft policies preventing discrimination in health coverage for state residents, including transgender and gender-diverse patients.

Death by Robots? Automation and Working-Age Mortality in the United States.

The decline of manufacturing employment is frequently invoked as a key cause of worsening U.S. population health trends, including rising mortality due to "deaths of despair." Increasing automation-the use of industrial robots to perform tasks previously done by human workers-is one structural force driving the decline of manufacturing jobs and wages. In this study, we examine the impact of automation on age- and sex-specific mortality. Using exogenous variation in automation to support causal inference, we find that increases in automation over the period 1993-2007 led to substantive increases in all-cause mortality for both men and women aged 45-54. Disaggregating by cause, we find evidence that automation is associated with increases in drug overdose deaths, suicide, homicide, and cardiovascular mortality, although patterns differ by age and sex. We further examine heterogeneity in effects by safety net program generosity, labor market policies, and the supply of prescription opioids.

US local public health department spending between 2008 and 2016 did not increase for communities in need.

BACKGROUND: Greater US local public health department (LPHD) spending has been associated with decreases in population-wide mortality. We examined the association between changes in LPHD spending between 2008 and 2016 and county-level sociodemographic indicators of public health need. METHODS: Multivariable linear regression was used to estimate the association between changes in county-level per-capita LPHD spending and 2008 sociodemographic indicators of interest: percent of population that was over 65 years old, Black, Hispanic, in poverty, unemployed, and uninsured. A second model assessed the relationship between changes in LPHD spending and sociodemographic shifts between 2008 and 2016. RESULTS: LPHD spending increases were associated with higher percentage points of 2008 adults over 65 years of age (+$0.53 per higher percentage point; 95% CI: +$0.01 to +$1.06) and unemployment (-$1.31; 95% CI: -$2.34 to -$0.27). Spending did not increase for communities with a higher proportion of people who identified as Black or Hispanic, or those with a greater proportion of people in poverty or uninsured, using either baseline or sociodemographic shifts between 2008 and 2016. CONCLUSION: Future LPHD funding decisions should consider increasing investments in counties serving disadvantaged communities to counteract the social, political, and structural barriers which have historically prevented these communities from achieving better health.

Statewide Interventions and Coronavirus Disease 2019 Mortality in the United States: An Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: Social distancing is encouraged to mitigate viral spreading during outbreaks. However, the association between distancing and patient-centered outcomes in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has not been demonstrated. In the United States, social distancing orders are implemented at the state level with variable timing of onset. Emergency declarations and school closures were 2 early statewide interventions. METHODS: To determine whether later distancing interventions were associated with higher mortality, we performed a state-level analysis in 55 146 COVID-19 nonsurvivors. We tested the association between timing of emergency declarations and school closures with 28-day mortality using multivariable negative binomial regression. Day 1 for each state was set to when they recorded ≥ 10 deaths. We performed sensitivity analyses to test model assumptions. RESULTS: At time of analysis, 37 of 50 states had ≥ 10 deaths and 28 follow-up days. Both later emergency declaration (adjusted mortality rate ratio [aMRR] 1.05 per day delay; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00-1.09; P = .040) and later school closure (aMRR 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01-1.09; P = .008) were associated with more deaths. When assessing all 50 states and setting day 1 to the day a state recorded its first death, delays in declaring an emergency (aMRR 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01-1.09; P = .020) or closing schools (aMRR 1.06; 95% CI, 1.03-1.09; P < .001) were associated with more deaths. Results were unchanged when excluding New York and New Jersey. CONCLUSIONS: Later statewide emergency declarations and school closure were associated with higher Covid-19 mortality. Each day of delay increased mortality risk 5 to 6%.

Mortality Before and After Border Wall Construction Along the US-Mexico Border, 1990-2017.

Objectives. To evaluate changes in mortality in US counties along the US-Mexico border in which there was substantial new border wall construction after the Secure Fence Act of 2006 relative to border counties in which there was no such border wall construction. Methods. Using complete 1990 to 2017 mortality microdata and a quasi-experimental difference-in-differences design, we evaluated changes in overall (all-cause) mortality, mortality from drug overdose, and mortality from homicide in the 10 counties with substantial new border wall construction and 11 counties with no such construction. We fit a linear model, adjusting for population characteristics and county and year fixed effects, with Bonferroni adjustments for multiple comparisons. Sensitivity analyses included the addition of adjacent inland counties and modifications to the statistical model. Results. Relative to counties without substantial new border wall construction, counties in which a substantial amount of new border wall was constructed exhibited a nonsignificant 0.02-percentage-point increase (95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.06, 0.10; P > .99) in overall mortality after construction. Border wall construction was not associated with changes in either deaths from overdose or deaths from homicide. Conclusions. Wall construction along the US-Mexico border after the Secure Fence Act of 2006 was not associated with discernible changes in mortality.

Poor rates of linkage to HIV care and uptake of treatment after home-based HIV testing among newly diagnosed 15-to-49 year-old men and women in a high HIV prevalence setting in South Africa.

Early antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is essential, but linkage to care following community-based services is often poor, and inadequately understood. This study examined factors influencing linkage to care following home-based HIV-testing services (HBHTS) in a hyper-endemic setting in South Africa. HBHTS was offered to participants (N = 10,236) enrolled in the second HIV Incidence Provincial Surveillance System survey (2015-2016), KwaZulu-Natal. Follow-up telephone surveys with 196 of the 313 individuals diagnosed HIV-positive through HBHTS were used to measure linkage to care (i.e., a clinic visit within 12 weeks) and ART-initiation. Among newly diagnosed individuals (N = 183), 55% linked to care, and 21% of those who were ART-eligible started treatment within 12 weeks. Linkage to care was less likely among participants who had doubted their HIV-diagnosis (aOR:0.46, 95%CI: 0.23-0.93) and more likely among participants who had disclosed their HIV-status (aOR:2.31, 95%CI: 1.07-4.97). Reasons for not linking to care included no time (61%), only wanting to start treatment when sick (48%), fear of side-effects (33%), and not believing the HIV-diagnosis (16%). Results indicate that HBHTS needs to be paired with targeted interventions to facilitate early linkage to care. Interventions are required to counter denial of HIV status and facilitate early linkage to care among healthier individuals.

Association Between County-Level Change in Economic Prosperity and Change in Cardiovascular Mortality Among Middle-aged US Adults.

Importance: After a decline in cardiovascular mortality for nonelderly US adults, recent stagnation has occurred alongside rising income inequality. Whether this is associated with underlying economic trends is unclear. Objective: To assess the association between changes in economic prosperity and trends in cardiovascular mortality in middle-aged US adults. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective analysis of the association between change in 7 markers of economic prosperity in 3123 US counties and county-level cardiovascular mortality among 40- to 64-year-old adults (102 660 852 individuals in 2010). Exposures: Mean rank for change in 7 markers of economic prosperity between 2 time periods (baseline: 2007-2011 and follow-up: 2012-2016). A higher mean rank indicates a greater relative increase or lower relative decrease in prosperity (range, 5 to 92; mean [SD], 50 [14]). Main Outcomes and Measures: Mean annual percentage change (APC) in age-adjusted cardiovascular mortality rates. Generalized linear mixed-effects models were used to estimate the additional APC associated with a change in prosperity. Results: Among 102 660 852 residents aged 40 to 64 years living in these counties in 2010 (51% women), 979 228 cardiovascular deaths occurred between 2010 and 2017. Age-adjusted cardiovascular mortality rates did not change significantly between 2010 and 2017 in counties in the lowest tertile for change in economic prosperity (mean [SD], 114.1 [47.9] to 116.1 [52.7] deaths per 100 000 individuals; APC, 0.2% [95% CI, -0.3% to 0.7%]). Mortality decreased significantly in the intermediate tertile (mean [SD], 104.7 [38.8] to 101.9 [41.5] deaths per 100 000 individuals; APC, -0.4% [95% CI, -0.8% to -0.1%]) and highest tertile for change in prosperity (100.0 [37.9] to 95.1 [39.1] deaths per 100 000 individuals; APC, -0.5% [95% CI, -0.9% to -0.1%]). After accounting for baseline prosperity and demographic and health care-related variables, a 10-point higher mean rank for change in economic prosperity was associated with 0.4% (95% CI, 0.2% to 0.6%) additional decrease in mortality per year. Conclusions and Relevance: In this retrospective study of US county-level mortality data from 2010 to 2017, a relative increase in county-level economic prosperity was significantly associated with a small relative decrease in cardiovascular mortality among middle-aged adults. Individual-level inferences are limited by the ecological nature of the study.

Economic influences on population health in the United States: Toward policymaking driven by data and evidence.

Atheendar S. Venkataramani and colleagues discuss economic factors and population health in the United States.

Social distancing to slow the US COVID-19 epidemic: Longitudinal pretest-posttest comparison group study.

BACKGROUND: Social distancing measures to address the US coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic may have notable health and social impacts. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a longitudinal pretest-posttest comparison group study to estimate the change in COVID-19 case growth before versus after implementation of statewide social distancing measures in the US. The primary exposure was time before (14 days prior to, and through 3 days after) versus after (beginning 4 days after, to up to 21 days after) implementation of the first statewide social distancing measures. Statewide restrictions on internal movement were examined as a secondary exposure. The primary outcome was the COVID-19 case growth rate. The secondary outcome was the COVID-19-attributed mortality growth rate. All states initiated social distancing measures between March 10 and March 25, 2020. The mean daily COVID-19 case growth rate decreased beginning 4 days after implementation of the first statewide social distancing measures, by 0.9% per day (95% CI -1.4% to -0.4%; P < 0.001). We did not observe a statistically significant difference in the mean daily case growth rate before versus after implementation of statewide restrictions on internal movement (0.1% per day; 95% CI -0.04% to 0.3%; P = 0.14), but there is substantial difficulty in disentangling the unique associations with statewide restrictions on internal movement from the unique associations with the first social distancing measures. Beginning 7 days after social distancing, the COVID-19-attributed mortality growth rate decreased by 2.0% per day (95% CI -3.0% to -0.9%; P < 0.001). Our analysis is susceptible to potential bias resulting from the aggregate nature of the ecological data, potential confounding by contemporaneous changes (e.g., increases in testing), and potential underestimation of social distancing due to spillover effects from neighboring states. CONCLUSIONS: Statewide social distancing measures were associated with a decrease in the COVID-19 case growth rate that was statistically significant. Statewide social distancing measures were also associated with a decrease in the COVID-19-attributed mortality growth rate beginning 7 days after implementation, although this decrease was no longer statistically significant by 10 days.

Correction: Social distancing to slow the US COVID-19 epidemic: Longitudinal pretest-posttest comparison group study.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003244.].

College affirmative action bans and smoking and alcohol use among underrepresented minority adolescents in the United States: A difference-in-differences study.

BACKGROUND: College affirmative action programs seek to expand socioeconomic opportunities for underrepresented minorities. Between 1996 and 2013, 9 US states-including California, Texas, and Michigan-banned race-based affirmative action in college admissions. Because economic opportunity is known to motivate health behavior, banning affirmative action policies may have important adverse spillover effects on health risk behaviors. We used a quasi-experimental research design to evaluate the association between college affirmative action bans and health risk behaviors among underrepresented minority (Black, Hispanic, and Native American) adolescents. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a difference-in-differences analysis using data from the 1991-2015 US national Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS). We compared changes in self-reported cigarette smoking and alcohol use in the 30 days prior to survey among underrepresented minority 11th and 12th graders in states implementing college affirmative action bans (Arizona, California, Florida, Michigan, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Oklahoma, Texas, and Washington) versus outcomes among those residing in states not implementing bans (n = 35 control states). We also assessed whether underrepresented minority adults surveyed in the 1992-2015 Tobacco Use Supplement to the Current Population Survey (TUS-CPS) who were exposed to affirmative action bans during their late high school years continued to smoke cigarettes between the ages of 19 and 30 years. Models adjusted for individual demographic characteristics, state and year fixed effects, and state-specific secular trends. In the YRBS (n = 34,988 to 36,268, depending on the outcome), cigarette smoking in the past 30 days among underrepresented minority 11th-12th graders increased by 3.8 percentage points after exposure to an affirmative action ban (95% CI: 2.0, 5.7; p < 0.001). In addition, there were also apparent increases in past-30-day alcohol use, by 5.9 percentage points (95% CI: 0.3, 12.2; p = 0.041), and past-30-day binge drinking, by 3.5 percentage points (95% CI: -0.1, 7.2, p = 0.058), among underrepresented minority 11th-12th graders, though in both cases adjustment for multiple comparisons resulted in failure to reject the null hypothesis (adjusted p = 0.083 for both outcomes). Underrepresented minority adults in the TUS-CPS (n = 71,575) exposed to bans during their late high school years were also 1.8 percentage points more likely to report current smoking (95% CI: 0.1, 3.6; p = 0.037). Event study analyses revealed a discrete break for all health behaviors timed with policy discussion and implementation. No substantive or statistically significant effects were found for non-Hispanic White adolescents, and the findings were robust to a number of additional specification checks. The limitations of the study include the continued potential for residual confounding from unmeasured time-varying factors and the potential for recall bias due to the self-reported nature of the health risk behavior outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found evidence that some health risk behaviors increased among underrepresented minority adolescents after exposure to state-level college affirmative action bans. These findings suggest that social policies that shift socioeconomic opportunities could have meaningful population health consequences.

Stigma as a fundamental hindrance to the United States opioid overdose crisis response.

Alexander Tsai and co-authors discuss the role of stigma in responses to the US opioid crisis.

Police killings and their spillover effects on the mental health of black Americans: a population-based, quasi-experimental study.

BACKGROUND: Police kill more than 300 black Americans-at least a quarter of them unarmed-each year in the USA. These events might have spillover effects on the mental health of people not directly affected. METHODS: In this population-based, quasi-experimental study, we combined novel data on police killings with individual-level data from the nationally representative 2013-15 US Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) to estimate the causal impact of police killings of unarmed black Americans on self-reported mental health of other black American adults in the US general population. The primary exposure was the number of police killings of unarmed black Americans occurring in the 3 months prior to the BRFSS interview within the same state. The primary outcome was the number of days in the previous month in which the respondent's mental health was reported as "not good". We estimated difference-in-differences regression models-adjusting for state-month, month-year, and interview-day fixed effects, as well as age, sex, and educational attainment. We additionally assessed the timing of effects, the specificity of the effects to black Americans, and the robustness of our findings. FINDINGS: 38 993 (weighted sample share 49%) of 103 710 black American respondents were exposed to one or more police killings of unarmed black Americans in their state of residence in the 3 months prior to the survey. Each additional police killing of an unarmed black American was associated with 0·14 additional poor mental health days (95% CI 0·07-0·22; p=0·00047) among black American respondents. The largest effects on mental health occurred in the 1-2 months after exposure, with no significant effects estimated for respondents interviewed before police killings (falsification test). Mental health impacts were not observed among white respondents and resulted only from police killings of unarmed black Americans (not unarmed white Americans or armed black Americans). INTERPRETATION: Police killings of unarmed black Americans have adverse effects on mental health among black American adults in the general population. Programmes should be implemented to decrease the frequency of police killings and to mitigate adverse mental health effects within communities when such killings do occur. FUNDING: Robert Wood Johnson Foundation and National Institutes of Health.