Reassessing the role of urban green space in air pollution control.

The assumption that vegetation improves air quality is prevalent in scientific, popular, and political discourse. However, experimental and modeling studies show the effect of green space on air pollutant concentrations in urban settings is highly variable and context specific. We revisited the link between vegetation and air quality using satellite-derived changes of urban green space and air pollutant concentrations from 2,615 established monitoring stations over Europe and the United States. Between 2010 and 2019, stations recorded declines in ambient NO2, (particulate matter) PM10, and PM2.5 (average of -3.14% y-1), but not O3 (+0.5% y-1), pointing to the general success of recent policy interventions to restrict anthropogenic emissions. The effect size of total green space on air pollution was weak and highly variable, particularly at the street scale (15 to 60 m radius) where vegetation can restrict ventilation. However, when isolating changes in tree cover, we found a negative association with air pollution at borough to city scales (120 to 16,000 m) particularly for O3 and PM. The effect of green space was smaller than the pollutant deposition and dispersion effects of meteorological drivers including precipitation, humidity, and wind speed. When averaged across spatial scales, a one SD increase in green space resulted in a 0.8% (95% CI: -3.5 to 2%) decline in air pollution. Our findings suggest that while urban greening may improve air quality at the borough-to-city scale, the impact is moderate and may have detrimental street-level effects depending on aerodynamic factors like vegetation type and urban form.

COVID-19 lockdowns cause global air pollution declines.

The lockdown response to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused an unprecedented reduction in global economic and transport activity. We test the hypothesis that this has reduced tropospheric and ground-level air pollution concentrations, using satellite data and a network of >10,000 air quality stations. After accounting for the effects of meteorological variability, we find declines in the population-weighted concentration of ground-level nitrogen dioxide (NO2: 60% with 95% CI 48 to 72%), and fine particulate matter (PM2.5: 31%; 95% CI: 17 to 45%), with marginal increases in ozone (O3: 4%; 95% CI: -2 to 10%) in 34 countries during lockdown dates up until 15 May. Except for ozone, satellite measurements of the troposphere indicate much smaller reductions, highlighting the spatial variability of pollutant anomalies attributable to complex NOx chemistry and long-distance transport of fine particulate matter with a diameter less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5). By leveraging Google and Apple mobility data, we find empirical evidence for a link between global vehicle transportation declines and the reduction of ambient NO2 exposure. While the state of global lockdown is not sustainable, these findings allude to the potential for mitigating public health risk by reducing "business as usual" air pollutant emissions from economic activities. Explore trends here: https://nina.earthengine.app/view/lockdown-pollution.

Air pollution declines during COVID-19 lockdowns mitigate the global health burden.

The lockdown response to COVID-19 has resulted in an unprecedented reduction in global economic activity and associated air pollutant levels, especially from a decline in land transportation. We utilized a network of >10,000 air quality stations distributed over 34 countries during lockdown dates up until 15 May 2020 to obtain lockdown related anomalies for nitrogen dioxide, ozone and particulate matter smaller than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5). Pollutant anomalies were related to short-term health outcomes using empirical exposure-response functions. We estimate that there were a net total of 49,900 (11,000 to 90,000; 95% confidence interval) excess deaths and 89,000 (64,700 to 107,000) pediatric asthma emergency room visits avoided during lockdowns. In China and India alone, the PM2.5-related avoided excess mortality was 19,600 (15,300 to 24,000) and 30,500 (5700 to 68,000), respectively. While the state of COVID-19 imposed lockdown is not sustainable, these findings illustrate the potential health benefits gained by reducing "business as usual" air pollutant emissions from economic activities primarily through finding alternative transportation solutions.

Large disagreements in estimates of urban land across scales and their implications.

Improvements in high-resolution satellite remote sensing and computational advancements have sped up the development of global datasets that delineate urban land, crucial for understanding climate risks in our increasingly urbanizing world. Here, we analyze urban land cover patterns across spatiotemporal scales from several such current-generation products. While all the datasets show a rapidly urbanizing world, with global urban land nearly tripling between 1985 and 2015, there are substantial discrepancies in urban land area estimates among the products influenced by scale, differing urban definitions, and methodologies. We discuss the implications of these discrepancies for several use cases, including for monitoring urban climate hazards and for modeling urbanization-induced impacts on weather and climate from regional to global scales. Our results demonstrate the importance of choosing fit-for-purpose datasets for examining specific aspects of historical, present, and future urbanization with implications for sustainable development, resource allocation, and quantification of climate impacts.

Environmental justice in a very green city: Spatial inequality in exposure to urban nature, air pollution and heat in Oslo, Norway.

Poorer citizens are often more exposed to environmental hazards due to spatial inequalities in the distribution of urban blue-green space. Few cities have managed to prevent spatial and social inequality despite sustainable development strategies like compact city planning. We explore whether environmental injustice exists in a city where one would least expect to find it: a city with abundant nature, an affluent population governed by a left leaning social democratic city council, and an aggressive densification strategy; Oslo, Norway. Green space was measured with a satellite-derived vegetation index which captures the combined availability of gardens, street trees, parks and forest. Blue space was defined by the proximity of residential areas to the closest lake, river or fjord. We found that poorer city districts, often with greater immigrant populations, have less available blue-green spaces and are disproportionately exposed to hazardous air pollution levels, but not extreme heat compared to wealthier city districts. Citizens living within 100 m of a water body are likely to earn US$ 20,000 more per year than citizens living 500 m away from water, and a US$ 3000 increase in annual income corresponds to a 10 % increase in green space availability. Hazardous air pollution concentrations in the poorest city districts were above levels recommended by the WHO and Oslo municipality. Historical trends showed that districts undergoing population densification coincide with the lowest availability of blue-green space, suggesting that environmental justice has been overlooked in compact city planning policy. Despite Oslo's affluence and egalitarian ideals, the patterns of inequality we observed mirror the city's historical east-west class divide and point to spatial concentration of wealth as a core factor to consider in studies of green segregation. Urban greening initiatives in Oslo and other cities should not take spatial equality for granted, and instead consider socio-economic geographies in their planning process.

Is green space associated with reduced crime? A national-scale study from the Global South.

Assumptions about the link between green space and crime mitigation are informed by literature that overwhelmingly originates in the Global North. Little is known about the association between green spaces and crime in the Global South. We utilized 10 years of precinct-level crime statistics (n = 1152) over South Africa, a global crime hotspot, to test the hypothesis that green space is associated with reduced crime rates. We found that, after controlling for a number of socio-demographic confounders (unemployment, income, age, education, land use and population density), for every 1% increase in total green space there is a 1.2% (0.7 to 1.7%; 95% confidence interval) decrease in violent crime, and 1.3% (0.8 to 1.8%) decrease in property crime, with no effect on sexual crimes. However, the direction of the association changed for property crimes when exploring the effect of green space characteristics including tree cover and park accessibility. Property crimes increase by 0.4% (0.1 to 0.7%) with a percentage increase in tree cover, and by 0.9% (0.5 to 1.3%) with every kilometer increase in proximity to a public park. Further research, including experimental studies, is needed to better isolate causal mechanisms behind crime-green space associations, especially considering that green space may map to race and income inequality and that there may be more crime reporting in affluent areas. Nevertheless, our results provide a complementary contribution to the evidence from the Global North, highlighting the need for more nuanced definitions of green space and its characteristics when considering links to crime. When viewed in light of the broader suite of ecosystem services provided by green space, our results support urban greening as a major strategy towards achieving just and sustainable cities and towns.

Crowdsourced air temperatures contrast satellite measures of the urban heat island and its mechanisms.

The ubiquitous nature of satellite data has led to an explosion of studies on the surface urban heat island (SUHI). Relatively few have simultaneously used air temperature measurements to compare SUHI with the canopy UHI (CUHI), which is more relevant to public health. Using crowdsourced citizen weather stations (>50,000) and satellite data over Europe, we estimate the CUHI and SUHI intensity in 342 urban clusters during the 2019 heat wave. Satellites produce a sixfold overestimate of UHI relative to station measurements (mean SUHI 1.45°C; CUHI 0.26°C), with SUHI exceeding CUHI in 96% of cities during daytime and in 80% at night. Using empirical evidence, we confirm the control of aerodynamic roughness on UHI intensity, but find evaporative cooling to have a stronger overall impact during this time period. Our results support urban greening as an effective UHI mitigation strategy and caution against relying on satellite data for urban heat risk assessments.

Mapping soil organic carbon stocks and trends with satellite-driven high resolution maps over South Africa.

Estimation and monitoring of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is important for maintaining soil productivity and meeting climate change mitigation targets. Current global SOC maps do not provide enough detail for landscape-scale decision making, and do not allow for tracking carbon sequestration or loss over time. Using an optical satellite-driven machine learning workflow, we mapped SOC stocks (topsoil; 0 to 30 cm) under natural vegetation (86% of land area) over South Africa at 30 m spatial resolution between 1984 and 2019. We estimate a total topsoil SOC stock of 5.6 Pg C with a median SOC density of 6 kg C m-2 (IQR: interquartile range 2.9 kg C m-2). Over 35 years, predicted SOC underwent a net increase of 0.3% (relative to long-term mean) with the greatest net increases (1.7%) and decreases (-0.6%) occurring in the Grassland and Nama Karoo biomes, respectively. At the landscape scale, SOC changes of up to 25% were evident in some locations, as evidenced from fence-line contrasts, and were likely due to local management effects (e.g. woody encroachment associated with increased SOC and overgrazing associated with decreased SOC). Our SOC mapping approach exhibited lower uncertainty (R2 = 0.64; RMSE = 2.5 kg C m-2) and less bias compared to previous low-resolution (250-1000 m) national SOC mapping efforts (average R2 = 0.24; RMSE = 3.7 kg C m-2). Our trend map remains an estimate, pending repeated measures of soil samples in the same location (time-series); a global priority for tracking SOC changes. While high resolution SOC maps can inform land management decisions aimed at climate mitigation (natural climate solutions), potential increases in SOC are likely limited by local climate and soils. It is also important that climate mitigation efforts such as planting trees balance trade-offs between carbon, biodiversity and overall ecosystem function.

Mobility in Blue-Green Spaces Does Not Predict COVID-19 Transmission: A Global Analysis.

Mobility restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic ostensibly prevented the public from transmitting the disease in public places, but they also hampered outdoor recreation, despite the importance of blue-green spaces (e.g., parks and natural areas) for physical and mental health. We assess whether restrictions on human movement, particularly in blue-green spaces, affected the transmission of COVID-19. Our assessment uses a spatially resolved dataset of COVID-19 case numbers for 848 administrative units across 153 countries during the first year of the pandemic (February 2020 to February 2021). We measure mobility in blue-green spaces with planetary-scale aggregate and anonymized mobility flows derived from mobile phone tracking data. We then use machine learning forecast models and linear mixed-effects models to explore predictors of COVID-19 growth rates. After controlling for a number of environmental factors, we find no evidence that increased visits to blue-green space increase COVID-19 transmission. By contrast, increases in the total mobility and relaxation of other non-pharmaceutical interventions such as containment and closure policies predict greater transmission. Ultraviolet radiation stands out as the strongest environmental mitigant of COVID-19 spread, while temperature, humidity, wind speed, and ambient air pollution have little to no effect. Taken together, our analyses produce little evidence to support public health policies that restrict citizens from outdoor mobility in blue-green spaces, which corroborates experimental studies showing low risk of outdoor COVID-19 transmission. However, we acknowledge and discuss some of the challenges of big data approaches to ecological regression analyses such as this, and outline promising directions and opportunities for future research.

Linking green infrastructure to urban heat and human health risk mitigation in Oslo, Norway.

The predicted extreme temperatures of global warming are magnified in cities due to the urban heat island effect. Even if the target for average temperature increase in the Paris Climate Agreement is met, temperatures during the hottest month in a northern city like Oslo are predicted to rise by over 5 °C by 2050. We hypothesised that heat-related diagnoses for heat-sensitive citizens (75+) in Oslo are correlated to monthly air temperatures, and that green infrastructure such as tree canopy cover reduces extreme land surface temperatures and thus reduces health risk from heat exposure. Monthly air temperatures were significantly correlated to the number of skin-related diagnoses at the city level, but were unrelated to diagnoses under circulatory, nervous system, or general categories. Satellite-derived spatially-explicit measures revealed that on one of the hottest days during the summer of 2018, landscape units composed of paved, midrise or lowrise buildings gave off the most heat (39 °C), whereas units composed of complete tree canopy cover, or mixed (i.e. tree and grass) vegetation maintained temperatures of between 29 and 32 °C. Land surface temperatures were negatively correlated to tree canopy cover (R2 = 0.45) and vegetation greenness (R2 = 0.41). In a scenario in which each city tree was replaced by the most common non-tree cover in its neighbourhood, the area of Oslo exceeding a 30 °C health risk threshold during the summer would increase from 23 to 29%. Combining modelling results with population at risk at census tract level, we estimated that each tree in the city currently mitigates additional heat exposure of one heat-sensitive person by one day. Our results indicate that maintaining and restoring tree cover provides an ecosystem service of urban heat reduction. Our findings have particular relevance for health benefit estimation in urban ecosystem accounting and municipal policy decisions regarding ecosystem-based climate adaptation.