Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties.

The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO2 ) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990-2015 from 148 terrestrial high-latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km2 ) across the high-latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE-focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE -46 and -29 g C m-2  yr-1 , respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and -2 g C m-2  yr-1 ). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high-latitude region was on average an annual CO2 sink during 1990-2015, although uncertainty remains high.

Snow is an important control of plant community functional composition in oroarctic tundra.

The functional composition of plant communities is a critical modulator of climate change impacts on ecosystems, but it is not a simple function of regional climate. In the Arctic tundra, where climate change is proceeding the most rapidly, communities have not shifted their trait composition as predicted by spatial temperature-trait relationships. Important causal pathways are thus missing from models of trait composition change. Here, we study causes of plant community functional variation in an oroarctic tundra landscape in Kilpisjärvi, Finland. We consider the community-weighted means of plant vegetative height, as well as two traits related to the leaf economic spectrum. Specifically, we model their responses to locally measured summer air temperature, snow conditions, and soil resource levels. For each of the traits, we also quantify the importance of intraspecific trait variation (ITV) for between-community functional differences and trait-environment matching. Our study shows that in a tundra landscape (1) snow is the most influential abiotic variable affecting functional composition, (2) vegetation height is under weak local environmental control, whereas leaf economics is under strong local environmental control, (3) the relative magnitude of ITV differs between traits, and (4) ITV is not very consequential for community-level trait-environment relationships. Our analyses highlight the importance of winter conditions for community functional composition in seasonal areas. We show that winter climate change can either amplify or counter the effects summer warming, depending on the trait.

Arctic soil methane sink increases with drier conditions and higher ecosystem respiration.

Arctic wetlands are known methane (CH4) emitters but recent studies suggest that the Arctic CH4 sink strength may be underestimated. Here we explore the capacity of well-drained Arctic soils to consume atmospheric CH4 using >40,000 hourly flux observations and spatially distributed flux measurements from 4 sites and 14 surface types. While consumption of atmospheric CH4 occurred at all sites at rates of 0.092 ± 0.011 mgCH4 m-2 h-1 (mean ± s.e.), CH4 uptake displayed distinct diel and seasonal patterns reflecting ecosystem respiration. Combining in situ flux data with laboratory investigations and a machine learning approach, we find biotic drivers to be highly important. Soil moisture outweighed temperature as an abiotic control and higher CH4 uptake was linked to increased availability of labile carbon. Our findings imply that soil drying and enhanced nutrient supply will promote CH4 uptake by Arctic soils, providing a negative feedback to global climate change.

Plant traits poorly predict winner and loser shrub species in a warming tundra biome.

Climate change is leading to species redistributions. In the tundra biome, shrubs are generally expanding, but not all tundra shrub species will benefit from warming. Winner and loser species, and the characteristics that may determine success or failure, have not yet been fully identified. Here, we investigate whether past abundance changes, current range sizes and projected range shifts derived from species distribution models are related to plant trait values and intraspecific trait variation. We combined 17,921 trait records with observed past and modelled future distributions from 62 tundra shrub species across three continents. We found that species with greater variation in seed mass and specific leaf area had larger projected range shifts, and projected winner species had greater seed mass values. However, trait values and variation were not consistently related to current and projected ranges, nor to past abundance change. Overall, our findings indicate that abundance change and range shifts will not lead to directional modifications in shrub trait composition, since winner and loser species share relatively similar trait spaces.

In-depth characterization of denitrifier communities across different soil ecosystems in the tundra.

BACKGROUND: In contrast to earlier assumptions, there is now mounting evidence for the role of tundra soils as important sources of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O). However, the microorganisms involved in the cycling of N2O in this system remain largely uncharacterized. Since tundra soils are variable sources and sinks of N2O, we aimed at investigating differences in community structure across different soil ecosystems in the tundra. RESULTS: We analysed 1.4 Tb of metagenomic data from soils in northern Finland covering a range of ecosystems from dry upland soils to water-logged fens and obtained 796 manually binned and curated metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs). We then searched for MAGs harbouring genes involved in denitrification, an important process driving N2O emissions. Communities of potential denitrifiers were dominated by microorganisms with truncated denitrification pathways (i.e., lacking one or more denitrification genes) and differed across soil ecosystems. Upland soils showed a strong N2O sink potential and were dominated by members of the Alphaproteobacteria such as Bradyrhizobium and Reyranella. Fens, which had in general net-zero N2O fluxes, had a high abundance of poorly characterized taxa affiliated with the Chloroflexota lineage Ellin6529 and the Acidobacteriota subdivision Gp23. CONCLUSIONS: By coupling an in-depth characterization of microbial communities with in situ measurements of N2O fluxes, our results suggest that the observed spatial patterns of N2O fluxes in the tundra are related to differences in the composition of denitrifier communities.

The activity and functions of soil microbial communities in the Finnish sub-Arctic vary across vegetation types.

Due to climate change, increased microbial activity in high-latitude soils may lead to higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, microbial GHG production and consumption mechanisms in tundra soils are not thoroughly understood. To investigate how the diversity and functional potential of bacterial and archaeal communities vary across vegetation types and soil layers, we analyzed 116 soil metatranscriptomes from 73 sites in the Finnish sub-Arctic. Meadow soils were characterized by higher pH and lower soil organic matter (SOM) and carbon/nitrogen ratio. By contrast, dwarf shrub-dominated ecosystems had higher SOM and lower pH. Although Actinobacteria, Acidobacteria, Alphaproteobacteria and Planctomycetes were dominant in all communities, there were significant differences at the genus level between vegetation types; plant polymer-degrading groups were more active in shrub-dominated soils than in meadows. Given that climate-change scenarios predict the expansion of shrubs at high latitudes, our results indicate that tundra soil microbial communities harbor potential decomposers of increased plant litter, which may affect the rate of carbon turnover in tundra soils. Additionally, transcripts of methanotrophs were detected in the mineral layer of all soils, which may moderate methane fluxes. This study provides new insights into possible shifts in tundra microbial diversity and activity due to climate change.

Respiratory loss during late-growing season determines the net carbon dioxide sink in northern permafrost regions.

Warming of northern high latitude regions (NHL, > 50 °N) has increased both photosynthesis and respiration which results in considerable uncertainty regarding the net carbon dioxide (CO2) balance of NHL ecosystems. Using estimates constrained from atmospheric observations from 1980 to 2017, we find that the increasing trends of net CO2 uptake in the early-growing season are of similar magnitude across the tree cover gradient in the NHL. However, the trend of respiratory CO2 loss during late-growing season increases significantly with increasing tree cover, offsetting a larger fraction of photosynthetic CO2 uptake, and thus resulting in a slower rate of increasing annual net CO2 uptake in areas with higher tree cover, especially in central and southern boreal forest regions. The magnitude of this seasonal compensation effect explains the difference in net CO2 uptake trends along the NHL vegetation- permafrost gradient. Such seasonal compensation dynamics are not captured by dynamic global vegetation models, which simulate weaker respiration control on carbon exchange during the late-growing season, and thus calls into question projections of increasing net CO2 uptake as high latitude ecosystems respond to warming climate conditions.