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BACKGROUND: There is little consensus on using statins for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and all-cause mortality in adults aged 75 years or older due to the underrepresentation of this population in randomized controlled trials. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the benefits and risks of using statins for primary prevention in old (aged 75 to 84 years) and very old (aged ≥85 years) adults. DESIGN: Sequential target trial emulation comparing matched cohorts initiating versus not initiating statin therapy. SETTING: Territory-wide public electronic medical records in Hong Kong. PARTICIPANTS: Persons aged 75 years or older who met indications for statin initiation from January 2008 to December 2015 were included. Participants with preexisting diagnosed CVDs at baseline, such as coronary heart disease (CHD), were excluded from the analysis. Among 69 981 eligible persons aged 75 to 84 years and 14 555 persons aged 85 years or older, 41 884 and 9457 had history of CHD equivalents (for example, diabetes) in the respective age groups. INTERVENTION: Initiation of statin therapy. MEASUREMENTS: Incidence of major CVDs (stroke, myocardial infarction, or heart failure), all-cause mortality, and major adverse events (myopathies and liver dysfunction). RESULTS: Of 42 680 matched person-trials aged 75 to 84 years and 5390 matched person-trials aged 85 years or older (average follow-up, 5.3 years), 9676 and 1600 of them developed CVDs in each age group, respectively. Risk reduction for overall CVD incidence was found for initiating statin therapy in adults aged 75 to 84 years (5-year standardized risk reduction, 1.20% [95% CI, 0.57% to 1.82%] in the intention-to-treat [ITT] analysis; 5.00% [CI, 1.11% to 8.89%] in the per protocol [PP] analysis) and in those aged 85 years or older (ITT: 4.44% [CI, 1.40% to 7.48%]; PP: 12.50% [CI, 4.33% to 20.66%]). No significantly increased risks for myopathies and liver dysfunction were found in both age groups. LIMITATION: Unmeasured confounders, such as lifestyle factors of diet and physical activity, may exist. CONCLUSION: Reduction for CVDs after statin therapy were seen in patients aged 75 years or older without increasing risks for severe adverse effects. Of note, the benefits and safety of statin therapy were consistently found in adults aged 85 years or older. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Health Bureau, the Government of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China, and National Natural Science Foundation of China.
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Doenças Cardiovasculares , Inibidores de Hidroximetilglutaril-CoA Redutases , Prevenção Primária , Humanos , Inibidores de Hidroximetilglutaril-CoA Redutases/uso terapêutico , Inibidores de Hidroximetilglutaril-CoA Redutases/efeitos adversos , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Masculino , Feminino , Doenças Cardiovasculares/prevenção & controle , Doenças Cardiovasculares/mortalidade , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Medição de Risco , Hong Kong/epidemiologia , Causas de Morte , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/prevenção & controle , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/epidemiologiaRESUMO
AIM: To evaluate the association between changes in haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and the concurrent incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients. METHOD: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among T2DM patients with HbA1c measurement after T2DM diagnosis between August 2009 and September 2010. The patients were classified into six subgroups based on baseline HbA1c (<7%; 7%-7.9%; ≥8%) and age (<65; ≥65 years), and then clustered into classes by HbA1c trajectory and CVD incidence over the 12-year follow-up period using joint latent class mixture models. We explored the HbA1c trajectories and CVD incidences in each latent class. Multinomial logistic regression was used to compare the baseline characteristics among different latent classes. RESULTS: A total of 128 843 T2DM patients were included with a median follow-up period of 11.7 years. Ten latent classes were identified in patients with baseline HbA1c ≥ 8% and age <65 years, while seven classes were identified in the other five groups. Among all the identified latent classes, patients with fluctuating HbA1c trajectories, characterized by alternating periods of increase and decrease, had higher CVD incidences. Male patients, and patients with higher baseline HbA1c and use of antidiabetic drugs were more likely to have a fluctuating HbA1c trajectory. More specifically, patients aged < 65 years with younger age or a smoking habit, and patients aged ≥ 65 years with a longer duration of T2DM were more likely to have a fluctuating HbA1c trajectory. CONCLUSION: We found that T2DM patients with fluctuating HbA1c trajectories could have a higher CVD risk. Different trajectory-associated characteristics in age subgroups highlight the need for individualized management of T2DM patients.
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AIM: To investigate whether the physician-encounter interval for patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) can be optimized from 2-3 to 4-6 months among those with a calculated 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk score of less than 20% without compromising their long-term outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using territory-wide public electronic medical records in Hong Kong, we emulated a target trial to compare the effectiveness of the physician-encounter intervals of 4-6 versus 2-3 months for T2D patients without prior CVDs and with a predicted risk for CVDs of less than 20% (i.e. those patients not in the high-risk category). Propensity score matching was used to emulate the randomization of participants at baseline, where 42 154 matched individuals were included for analysis. The marginal structural model was applied to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) for CVD incidence and all-cause mortality, the incidence rate ratio of secondary and tertiary care utilization, as well as the between-group differences in HbA1c, blood pressure and cholesterol levels. RESULTS: During a follow-up period of up to 12 (average: 5.1) years, there was no significantly increased risk of CVD in patients with physician-encounter intervals of 4-6 months compared with those patients with physician-encounter intervals of 2-3 months (HR [95% confidence interval {CI}]: 1.01 [0.90, 1.14]; standardized 10-year risk difference [95% CI]: -0.1% [-0.7%, 0.6%]), nor for all-cause mortality (HR: 1.00 [0.84, 1.20]; standardized 10-year risk difference: -0.1% [-0.5%, 0.3%]). Additionally, there was no observable difference in the utilization of secondary and tertiary care or key clinical parameters between these two follow-up frequencies. CONCLUSIONS: For T2D patients with a calculated 10-year CVD risk of less than 20%, the interval of regular physician encounters can be optimized from 2-3 to 4-6 months without compromising patients' long-term outcomes and saving substantial service resources in primary care.
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AIM: To develop 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) managed in primary care using machine learning (ML) methods. METHODS: In this 10-year population-based retrospective cohort study, 141 516 Chinese T2DM patients aged 18 years or above, without history of CVD or end-stage renal disease and managed in public primary care clinics in 2008, were included and followed up until December 2017. Two-thirds of the patients were randomly selected to develop sex-specific CVD risk prediction models. The remaining one-third of patients were used as the validation sample to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the models. ML-based methods were applied to missing data imputation, predictor selection, risk prediction modelling, model interpretation, and model evaluation. Cox regression was used to develop the statistical models in parallel for comparison. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 9.75 years, 32 445 patients (22.9%) developed CVD. Age, T2DM duration, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), systolic blood pressure variability and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) variability were the most important predictors. ML models also identified nonlinear effects of several predictors, particularly the U-shaped effects of eGFR and body mass index. The ML models showed a Harrell's C statistic of >0.80 and good calibration. The ML models performed significantly better than the Cox regression models in CVD risk prediction and achieved better risk stratification for individual patients. CONCLUSION: Using routinely available predictors and ML-based algorithms, this study established 10-year CVD risk prediction models for Chinese T2DM patients in primary care. The findings highlight the importance of renal function indicators, and variability in both blood pressure and HbA1c as CVD predictors, which deserve more clinical attention. The derived risk prediction tools have the potential to support clinical decision making and encourage patients towards self-care, subject to further research confirming the models' feasibility, acceptability and applicability at the point of care.
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Doenças Cardiovasculares , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Aprendizado de Máquina , Atenção Primária à Saúde , Humanos , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/complicações , Masculino , Feminino , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/etiologia , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Idoso , China/epidemiologia , Medição de Risco/métodos , Adulto , Fatores de Risco , Seguimentos , População do Leste AsiáticoRESUMO
AIM: The present study aimed to evaluate the effect of statin therapy for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) when initiating therapy at different baseline low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using territory-wide public electronic medical records in Hong Kong, we emulated a sequence of trials on patients with T2DM with elevated LDL-C levels in every calendar month from January 2008 to December 2014. Pooled logistic regression was applied to obtain the hazard ratios for the major CVDs (stroke, myocardial infarction, heart failure), all-cause mortality and major adverse events (myopathies and liver dysfunction) of statin therapy. RESULTS: The estimated hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of CVD incidence for statin initiation were 0.78 (0.72, 0.84) in patients with baseline LDL-C of 1.8-2.5 mmol/L (i.e., 70-99 mg/dL) and 0.90 (0.88, 0.92) in patients with baseline LDL-C ≥2.6 mmol/L (i.e., ≥100 mg/dL) in intention-to-treat analysis, which was 0.59 (0.51, 0.68) and 0.77 (0.74, 0.81) in per-protocol analysis, respectively. No significant increased risks were observed for the major adverse events. The absolute 10-year risk difference of overall CVD in per-protocol analysis was -7.1% (-10.7%, -3.6%) and -3.9% (-5.1%, -2.7%) in patients with baseline LDL-C 1.8-2.5 and ≥2.6 mmol/L, respectively. The effectiveness and safety were consistently observed in patients aged >75 years initiating statin at both LDL-C thresholds. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with the threshold of 2.6 mmol/L, initiating statin in patients with a lower baseline LDL-C level at 1.8-2.5 mmol/L can further reduce the risks of CVD and all-cause mortality without significantly increasing the risk of major adverse events in patients with T2DM, including patients aged >75 years.
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Doenças Cardiovasculares , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Inibidores de Hidroximetilglutaril-CoA Redutases , Infarto do Miocárdio , Humanos , Inibidores de Hidroximetilglutaril-CoA Redutases/efeitos adversos , Doenças Cardiovasculares/epidemiologia , Doenças Cardiovasculares/prevenção & controle , LDL-Colesterol , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/complicações , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/tratamento farmacológicoRESUMO
BACKGROUND. MRI-based prognostic evaluation in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) has historically used markers of late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) and feature tracking (FT)-derived left ventricular global longitudinal strain (LVGLS). Early data indicate that FT-derived left atrial strain (LAS) parameters, including reservoir, conduit, and booster, may also have prognostic roles in such patients. OBJECTIVE. The purpose of our study was to evaluate the prognostic utility of LAS parameters, derived from MRI FT, in patients with ischemic or nonischemic DCM, including in comparison with the traditional parameters of LGE and LVGLS. METHODS. This retrospective study included 811 patients with ischemic or nonischemic DCM (median age, 60 years; 640 men, 171 women) who underwent cardiac MRI at any of five centers. FT-derived LAS parameters and LVGLS were measured using two- and four-chamber cine images. LGE percentage was quantified. Patients were assessed for a composite outcome of all-cause mortality or heart failure hospitalization. Multivariable Cox regression analyses including demographic characteristics, cardiovascular risk factors, medications used, and a wide range of cardiac MRI parameters were performed. Kaplan-Meier analyses with log-rank tests were also performed. RESULTS. A total of 419 patients experienced the composite outcome. Patients who did, versus those who did not, experience the composite outcome had larger LVGLS (-6.7% vs -8.3%, respectively; p < .001) as well as a smaller LAS reservoir (13.3% vs 19.3%, p < .001), LAS conduit (4.7% vs 8.0%, p < .001), and LAS booster (8.1% vs 10.3%, p < .001) but no significant difference in LGE (10.1% vs 11.3%, p = .51). In multivariable Cox regression analyses, significant independent predictors of the composite outcome included LAS reservoir (HR = 0.96, p < .001) and LAS conduit (HR = 0.91, p < .001). LAS booster and LGE were not significant independent predictors in the models. LVGLS was a significant independent predictor only in a model that initially included LAS booster but not the other LAS parameters. In Kaplan-Meier analysis, all three LAS parameters were significantly associated with the composite outcome (p < .001). CONCLUSION. In this multicenter study, LAS reservoir and LAS conduit were significant independent prognostic markers in patients with ischemic or nonischemic DCM, showing greater prognostic utility than the currently applied markers of LVGLS and LGE. CLINICAL IMPACT. FT-derived LAS analysis provides incremental prognostic information in patients with DCM.
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Cardiomiopatia Dilatada , Imagem Cinética por Ressonância Magnética , Humanos , Feminino , Masculino , Cardiomiopatia Dilatada/diagnóstico por imagem , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Prognóstico , Estudos Retrospectivos , Imagem Cinética por Ressonância Magnética/métodos , Átrios do Coração/diagnóstico por imagem , Átrios do Coração/fisiopatologia , Idoso , Isquemia Miocárdica/diagnóstico por imagem , Meios de Contraste , Imageamento por Ressonância Magnética/métodosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir are orally administered pharmacotherapies for mild to moderate COVID-19. However, the effectiveness of these drugs among very old (≥80 years), hospitalised patients remains unclear, limiting the risk-benefit assessment of these antivirals in this specific group. This study investigates the effectiveness of these antivirals in reducing mortality among this group of hospitalised patients with COVID-19. METHODS: Using a territory-wide public healthcare database in Hong Kong, a target trial emulation study was conducted with data from 13 642 eligible participants for the molnupiravir trial and 9553 for the nirmatrelvir-ritonavir trial. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. Immortal time and confounding bias was minimised using cloning-censoring-weighting approach. Mortality odds ratios were estimated by pooled logistic regression after adjusting confounding biases by stabilised inverse probability weights. RESULTS: Both molnupiravir (HR: 0.895, 95% CI: 0.826-0.970) and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (HR: 0.804, 95% CI: 0.678-0.955) demonstrated moderate mortality risk reduction among oldest-old hospitalised patients. No significant interaction was observed between oral antiviral treatment and vaccination status. The 28-day risk of mortality was lower in initiators than non-initiators for both molnupiravir (risk difference: -1.09%, 95% CI: -2.29, 0.11) and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (risk difference: -1.71%, 95% CI: -3.30, -0.16) trials. The effectiveness of these medications was observed regardless of the patients' prior vaccination status. CONCLUSIONS: Molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir are moderately effective in reducing mortality risk among hospitalised oldest-old patients with COVID-19, regardless of their vaccination status.
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Antivirais , Tratamento Farmacológico da COVID-19 , Hospitalização , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , Antivirais/administração & dosagem , Antivirais/uso terapêutico , Masculino , Feminino , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Hospitalização/estatística & dados numéricos , Hong Kong/epidemiologia , Administração Oral , Ritonavir/uso terapêutico , Ritonavir/administração & dosagem , COVID-19/mortalidade , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Hidroxilaminas/administração & dosagem , Hidroxilaminas/uso terapêutico , Resultado do Tratamento , Citidina/análogos & derivados , Citidina/administração & dosagem , Citidina/uso terapêutico , Leucina/análogos & derivadosRESUMO
OBJECTIVE: The evidence of thyroid dysfunction in the post-acute phase of SARS-CoV-2 infection is limited. This study aimed to evaluate the risk of incident thyroid dysfunction in the post-acute phase of COVID-19. METHODS: This retrospective, propensity-score matched, population-based study included COVID-19 patients and non-COVID-19 individuals between January 2020 and March 2022, identified from the electronic medical records of the Hong Kong Hospital Authority. The cohort was followed up until the occurrence of outcomes, death, or 31 January 2023, whichever came first. Patients with COVID-19 were 1:1 matched to controls based on various variables. The primary outcome was a composite of thyroid dysfunction (hyperthyroidism, hypothyroidism, initiation of antithyroid drug or levothyroxine, and thyroiditis). Cox regression was employed to evaluate the risk of incident thyroid dysfunction during the post-acute phase. RESULTS: A total of 84 034 COVID-19 survivors and 84 034 matched controls were identified. Upon a median follow-up of 303 days, there was no significant increase in the risk of diagnosed thyroid dysfunction in the post-acute phase of COVID-19 (hazard ratio [HR] 1.058, 95% confidence interval 0.979-1.144, P = .154). Regarding the secondary outcomes, patients with COVID-19 did not have increased risk of hyperthyroidism (HR 1.061, P = .345), hypothyroidism (HR 1.062, P = .255), initiation of antithyroid drug (HR 1.302, P = .070), initiation of levothyroxine (HR 1.086, P = .426), or thyroiditis (P = .252). Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were largely consistent with the main analyses. CONCLUSION: Our population-based cohort study provided important reassuring data that COVID-19 was unlikely to be associated with persistent effects on thyroid function.
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COVID-19 , Hipotireoidismo , Doenças da Glândula Tireoide , Humanos , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/complicações , Hong Kong/epidemiologia , Masculino , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Idoso , Adulto , Hipotireoidismo/epidemiologia , Doenças da Glândula Tireoide/epidemiologia , Hipertireoidismo/epidemiologia , Incidência , SARS-CoV-2 , Estudos de Coortes , Tiroxina/uso terapêutico , Fatores de Risco , Tireoidite/epidemiologia , Pontuação de Propensão , Síndrome de COVID-19 Pós-Aguda , Antitireóideos/uso terapêuticoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Whether hospitalized patients benefit from COVID-19 oral antivirals is uncertain. OBJECTIVE: To examine the real-world effectiveness of molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 during the Omicron outbreak. DESIGN: Target trial emulation study. SETTING: Electronic health databases in Hong Kong. PARTICIPANTS: The molnupiravir emulated trial included hospitalized patients with COVID-19 aged 18 years or older between 26 February and 18 July 2022 (n = 16 495). The nirmatrelvir-ritonavir emulated trial included hospitalized patients with COVID-19 aged 18 years or older between 16 March and 18 July 2022 (n = 7119). INTERVENTION: Initiation of molnupiravir or nirmatrelvir-ritonavir within 5 days of hospitalization with COVID-19 versus no initiation of molnupiravir or nirmatrelvir-ritonavir. MEASUREMENTS: Effectiveness against all-cause mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, or use of ventilatory support within 28 days. RESULTS: The use of oral antivirals in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 was associated with a lower risk for all-cause mortality (molnupiravir: hazard ratio [HR], 0.87 [95% CI, 0.81 to 0.93]; nirmatrelvir-ritonavir: HR, 0.77 [CI, 0.66 to 0.90]) but no significant risk reduction in terms of ICU admission (molnupiravir: HR, 1.02 [CI, 0.76 to 1.36]; nirmatrelvir-ritonavir: HR, 1.08 [CI, 0.58 to 2.02]) or the need for ventilatory support (molnupiravir: HR, 1.07 [CI, 0.89 to 1.30]; nirmatrelvir-ritonavir: HR, 1.03 [CI, 0.70 to 1.52]). There was no significant interaction between drug treatment and the number of COVID-19 vaccine doses received, thereby supporting the effectiveness of oral antivirals regardless of vaccination status. No significant interaction between nirmatrelvir-ritonavir treatment and age, sex, or Charlson Comorbidity Index was observed, whereas molnupiravir tended to be more effective in older people. LIMITATION: The outcome of ICU admission or need for ventilatory support may not capture all severe COVID-19 cases; unmeasured confounders, such as obesity and health behaviors, may exist. CONCLUSION: Molnupiravir and nirmatrelvir-ritonavir reduced all-cause mortality in both vaccinated and unvaccinated hospitalized patients. No significant reduction in ICU admission or the need for ventilatory support was observed. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Health and Medical Research Fund Research on COVID-19, Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region; Research Grants Council, Collaborative Research Fund; and Health Bureau, Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region.
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COVID-19 , Idoso , Humanos , Antivirais/uso terapêutico , Tratamento Farmacológico da COVID-19 , Vacinas contra COVID-19 , Ritonavir/uso terapêuticoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Observable symptoms of Bell's palsy following vaccinations arouse concern over the safety profiles of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines. However, there are only inconclusive findings on Bell's palsy following messenger (mRNA) COVID-19 vaccination. This study aims to update the previous analyses on the risk of Bell's palsy following mRNA (BNT162b2) COVID-19 vaccination. METHODS: This study included cases aged ≥16 years with a new diagnosis of Bell's palsy within 28 days after BNT162b2 vaccinations from the population-based electronic health records in Hong Kong. Nested case-control and self-controlled case series (SCCS) analyses were used, where the association between Bell's palsy and BNT162b2 was evaluated using conditional logistic and Poisson regression, respectively. RESULTS: Totally 54 individuals were newly diagnosed with Bell's palsy after BNT162b2 vaccinations. The incidence of Bell's palsy was 1.58 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.19-2.07) per 100 000 doses administered. The nested case-control analysis showed significant association between BNT162b2 vaccinations and Bell's palsy (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.543; 95% CI, 1.123-2.121), with up to 1.112 excess events per 100 000 people who received 2 doses of BNT162b2. An increased risk of Bell's palsy was observed during the first 14 days after the second dose of BNT162b2 in both nested case-control (aOR, 2.325; 95% CI, 1.414-3.821) and SCCS analysis (adjusted incidence rate ratio, 2.44; 95% CI, 1.32-4.50). CONCLUSIONS: There was an overall increased risk of Bell's palsy following BNT162b2 vaccination, particularly within the first 14 days after the second dose, but the absolute risk was very low.
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Paralisia de Bell , Vacinas contra COVID-19 , COVID-19 , Paralisia Facial , Humanos , Paralisia de Bell/epidemiologia , Paralisia de Bell/etiologia , Vacina BNT162 , Estudos de Casos e Controles , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , COVID-19/complicações , Vacinas contra COVID-19/efeitos adversos , Projetos de Pesquisa , Vacinação/efeitos adversosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The risk of incident diabetes following Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination remains to be elucidated. Also, it is unclear whether the risk of incident diabetes after Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection is modified by vaccination status or differs by SARS-CoV-2 variants. We evaluated the incidence of diabetes following mRNA (BNT162b2), inactivated (CoronaVac) COVID-19 vaccines, and after SARS-CoV-2 infection. METHODS AND FINDINGS: In this population-based cohort study, individuals without known diabetes were identified from an electronic health database in Hong Kong. The first cohort included people who received ≥1 dose of COVID-19 vaccine and those who did not receive any COVID-19 vaccines up to September 2021. The second cohort consisted of confirmed COVID-19 patients and people who were never infected up to March 2022. Both cohorts were followed until August 15, 2022. A total of 325,715 COVID-19 vaccine recipients (CoronaVac: 167,337; BNT162b2: 158,378) and 145,199 COVID-19 patients were 1:1 matched to their respective controls using propensity score for various baseline characteristics. We also adjusted for previous SARS-CoV-2 infection when estimating the conditional probability of receiving vaccinations, and vaccination status when estimating the conditional probability of contracting SARS-CoV-2 infection. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident diabetes were estimated using Cox regression models. In the first cohort, we identified 5,760 and 4,411 diabetes cases after receiving CoronaVac and BNT162b2 vaccines, respectively. Upon a median follow-up of 384 to 386 days, there was no evidence of increased risks of incident diabetes following CoronaVac or BNT162b2 vaccination (CoronaVac: 9.08 versus 9.10 per 100,000 person-days, HR = 0.998 [95% CI 0.962 to 1.035]; BNT162b2: 7.41 versus 8.58, HR = 0.862 [0.828 to 0.897]), regardless of diabetes type. In the second cohort, we observed 2,109 cases of diabetes following SARS-CoV-2 infection. Upon a median follow-up of 164 days, SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with significantly higher risk of incident diabetes (9.04 versus 7.38, HR = 1.225 [1.150 to 1.305])-mainly type 2 diabetes-regardless of predominant circulating variants, albeit lower with Omicron variants (p for interaction = 0.009). The number needed to harm at 6 months was 406 for 1 additional diabetes case. Subgroup analysis revealed no evidence of increased risk of incident diabetes among fully vaccinated COVID-19 survivors. Main limitations of our study included possible misclassification bias as type 1 diabetes was identified through diagnostic coding and possible residual confounders due to its observational nature. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence of increased risks of incident diabetes following COVID-19 vaccination. The risk of incident diabetes increased following SARS-CoV-2 infection, mainly type 2 diabetes. The excess risk was lower, but still statistically significant, for Omicron variants. Fully vaccinated individuals might be protected from risks of incident diabetes following SARS-CoV-2 infection.
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Vacinas contra COVID-19 , COVID-19 , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Humanos , Vacina BNT162 , Estudos de Coortes , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Vacinas contra COVID-19/efeitos adversos , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/epidemiologia , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/etiologia , Hong Kong/epidemiologia , Incidência , Pontuação de Propensão , SARS-CoV-2 , Vacinação/efeitos adversosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: With accruing case reports on de novo or relapsing glomerular diseases (GD) following different severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccines, we evaluated the risk of GD following BNT162b2 and CoronaVac vaccines. METHODS: A modified self-controlled case series analysis was conducted using anonymized, territory-wide SARS-CoV-2 vaccination records in Hong Kong. All Hong Kong residents aged 18 years or above with outcomes of interest were included. Outcomes of interest were GD, proteinuria or hematuria within 42 days following each dose of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. Incidence per 100 000 doses of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines administered was calculated, and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were estimated using conditional Poisson regression with seasonality adjustment. RESULTS: Between 23 February 2021 and 31 March 2022, 4062 patients had an incident diagnosis of GD, proteinuria or hematuria, with 2873 of them being vaccinated during the observation period. The incidences of the composite events 1-41 days after vaccination were 3.7 (95% CI 3.1-4.4) per 100 000 doses of BNT162b2 administered, and 6.5 (95% CI 5.7-7.5) per 100 000 doses CoronaVac administered. There was no significant increase in the risks of composite events following the first (BNT162b2: IRR = 0.76, 95% CI 0.56-1.03; CoronaVac: IRR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.72-1.19), second (BNT162b2: IRR = 0.92, 95% CI 0.72-1.17; CoronaVac: IRR = 0.88. 95% CI 0.68-1.14) or third (BNT162b2: IRR = 0.39. 95% CI 0.15-1.03; CoronaVac: IRR = 1.18. 95% CI 0.53-2.63) dose of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence of increased risks of de novo or relapsing GD with either BNT162b2 or CoronaVac vaccines.
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COVID-19 , Nefropatias , Humanos , Vacinas contra COVID-19 , Vacina BNT162 , Hematúria , RNA Mensageiro , SARS-CoV-2 , ProteinúriaRESUMO
AIM: To evaluate the association between the number of co-morbidities, all-cause mortality and public health system expenditure in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) across different age groups. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A retrospective observational study of T2D patients using electronic health records in Hong Kong was conducted. Patients were stratified by age (< 50, 50-64, 65-79, ≥ 80 years) and the number of co-morbidities (0, 1, 2, 3, ≥ 4), defined using the Charlson Comorbidity Index and prevalent chronic diseases identified in local surveys. The association between the number of co-morbidities, all-cause mortality and direct medical costs was examined using Cox proportional hazard regression and the gamma generalized linear model with log link function. RESULTS: A total of 262 212 T2D patients with a median follow-up of 10 years were included. Hypertension and dyslipidaemia were the most common co-morbidities in all age groups. After age stratification, cardiovascular diseases dominated the top pair of co-morbidities in the older age groups (65-79 and ≥ 80 years), while inflammatory and liver disease were predominant among younger individuals. Compared with co-morbidity-free T2D patients, the hazard ratios (95% CI) of death for patients aged younger than 50 and 80 years or older with two co-morbidities were 1.31 (1.08-1.59) and 1.25 (1.15-1.36), respectively, and increased to 3.08 (2.25-4.21) and 1.98 (1.82-2.16), respectively, as the number of co-morbidities increased to four or more. Similar trends were observed for medical costs. CONCLUSIONS: Age-specific co-morbidity patterns were observed for patients with T2D. A greater number of co-morbidities was associated with increased mortality and healthcare costs, with stronger relationships observed among younger patients.
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Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Humanos , Idoso , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/complicações , Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2/epidemiologia , Estudos Retrospectivos , Comorbidade , Fatores Etários , MorbidadeRESUMO
AIM: To evaluate the long-term associations between coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and diabetes complications and mortality, in patients with diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: People with diabetes diagnosed with COVID-19 infection (exposed group), from 16 March 2020 to 31 May 2021 from the UK Biobank (UKB cohort; n = 2456), and from 1 April 2020 to 31 May 2022 from the electronic health records in Hong Kong (HK cohort; n = 80 546), were recruited. Each patient was randomly matched with participants with diabetes but without COVID-19 (unexposed group), based on age and sex (UKB, n = 41 801; HK, n = 391 849). Patients were followed for up to 18 months until 31 August 2021 for UKB, and up to 28 months until 15 August 2022 for HK. Characteristics between cohorts were further adjusted with Inverse Probability Treatment Weighting. Long-term association of COVID-19 with multi-organ disease complications and all-cause mortality after 21 days of diagnosis was evaluated by Cox regression. RESULTS: Compared with uninfected participants, patients with COVID-19 infection with diabetes were consistently associated with higher risks of cardiovascular diseases (coronary heart disease [CHD]: hazard ratio [HR] [UKB]: 1.6 [95% confidence interval {CI}: 1.0, 2.4], HR [HK]: 1.2 [95% CI: 1.0, 1.5]; and stroke: HR [UKB]: 2.0 [95% CI: 1.1, 3.6], HR [HK]: 1.5 [95% CI: 1.3, 1.8]), microvascular disease (end stage renal disease: HR [UKB]: 2.1 [95% CI: 1.1, 4.0], HR [HK]: 1.2 [95% CI: 1.1, 1.4]) and all-cause mortality (HR [UKB]: 4.6 [95% CI: 3.8, 5.5], HR [HK]: 2.6 [95% CI: 2.5, 2.8]), in both cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: COVID-19 infection is associated with long-term increased risks of diabetes complications (especially cardiovascular complications, and mortality) in people with diabetes. Monitoring for signs/symptoms of developing these long-term complications post-COVID-19 infection in the infected patient population of people with diabetes may be beneficial in minimizing their morbidity and mortality.
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COVID-19 , Complicações do Diabetes , Diabetes Mellitus , Humanos , COVID-19/complicações , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Hong Kong/epidemiologia , Complicações do Diabetes/epidemiologia , Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais , Reino Unido/epidemiologia , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Car use has been associated with higher risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). However, whether the associations of transport modes with CHD vary by genetic susceptibility to CHD are unknown. This study aims to investigate the associations of genetic susceptibility and modes of transport with incidence of CHD. METHODS: We included 339,588 white British participants from UK Biobank with no history of CHD or stroke at baseline or within two years of follow-up (52.3% in work). Genetic susceptibility to CHD was quantified through weighted polygenic risk scores derived from 300 single-nucleotide polymorphisms related to CHD risk. Categories of transport mode included exclusive car use and alternatives to the car (e.g., walking, cycling and public transport), separately for non-commuting (e.g., getting about [n=339,588] excluding commuting for work), commuting (in the sub-set in work [n=177,370] who responded to the commuting question), and overall transport (transport mode for both commuting and non-commuting [n=177,370]). We used Cox regression with age as the underlying timescale to estimate hazard ratios (HR) of CHD (n=13,730; median 13.8-year follow-up) and tested the interaction between genetic susceptibility and travel modes with adjustment for confounders. RESULTS: Compared to those using alternatives to the car, hazards of CHD were higher for exclusive use of cars for overall transport (HR: 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.08-1.25), non-commuting (HR: 1.08, 95% CI: 1.04-1.12) and commuting (HR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.09-1.23), after adjusting for confounders plus genetic susceptibility. HRs of CHD were 1.45 (95% CI: 1.38-1.52) and 2.04 (95% CI: 1.95-2.12) for the second and third tertile of genetic susceptibility to CHD, respectively, compared to the first. There was, in general, no strong evidence of interactions between genetic susceptibility and categories of overall, non-commuting and commuting transport. Estimated 10-year absolute risk of CHD was lower for the alternatives to the car across strata of genetic susceptibility, compared with exclusive use of cars for overall, non-commuting and commuting transport. CONCLUSION: Exclusive use of cars was associated with a relatively higher risk of CHD across all strata of genetic susceptibility. Using alternatives to the car should be encouraged for prevention of CHD for the general population including individuals at high genetic risk.
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Doença das Coronárias , Predisposição Genética para Doença , Humanos , Incidência , Caminhada , Viagem , Doença das Coronárias/etiologia , Doença das Coronárias/genéticaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Multimorbidity is a prevalent risk factor for COVID-19-related complications and death. We sought to evaluate the association of homologous booster vaccination using BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) or CoronaVac (Sinovac) with COVID-19-related deaths among people with multimorbidity during the initial Omicron wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: Using routine clinical records from public health care facilities in Hong Kong, we conducted a territory-wide retrospective cohort study comparing people aged 18 years or older with 2 or more chronic conditions who received a homologous booster (third) dose with those who received only 2 doses, between Nov. 11, 2021, and Mar. 31, 2022. The primary outcome was death related to COVID-19. RESULTS: We included 120 724 BNT162b2 recipients (including 87 289 who received a booster), followed for a median of 34 (interquartile range [IQR] 20-63) days and 127 318 CoronaVac recipients (including 94 977 who received a booster), followed for a median of 38 (IQR 22-77) days. Among BNT162b2 recipients, booster-vaccinated people had fewer COVID-19-related deaths than those who received 2 doses (5 v. 34, incidence rate 1.3 v. 23.4 per million person-days, weighted incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.02-0.16). We observed similar results among recipients of CoronaVac booster vaccination compared with those who received only 2 doses (26 v. 88, incidence rate 5.3 v. 53.1 per million person-days, weighted IRR 0.08, 95% CI 0.05-0.12). INTERPRETATION: Among people with multimorbidity, booster vaccination with BNT162b2 or CoronaVac was associated with reductions of more than 90% in COVID-19-related mortality rates compared with only 2 doses. These results highlight the crucial role of booster vaccination for protecting vulnerable populations as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to evolve.
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COVID-19 , Vacinas de mRNA , Humanos , Vacina BNT162 , Estudos de Coortes , Multimorbidade , Pandemias , Estudos Retrospectivos , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , VacinaçãoRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Concerns about COVID-19 vaccination induced myocarditis or subclinical myocarditis persists in some populations. Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) has been used to detect signs of COVID-19 vaccination induced myocarditis. This study aims to: (i) characterise myocardial tissue, function, size before and after COVID-19 vaccination, (ii) determine if there is imaging evidence of subclinical myocardial inflammation or injury after vaccination using CMR. METHODS: Subjects aged ≥ 12yrs old without prior COVID-19 or COVID-19 vaccination underwent two CMR examinations: first, ≤ 14 days before the first COVID-19 vaccination and a second time ≤ 14 days after the second COVID-19 vaccination. Biventricular indices, ejection fraction (EF), global longitudinal strain (GLS), late gadolinium enhancement (LGE), left ventricular (LV) myocardial native T1, T2, extracellular volume (ECV) quantification, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), white cell count (WCC), C-reactive protein (CRP), NT-proBNP, troponin-T, electrocardiogram (ECG), and 6-min walk test were assessed in a blinded fashion. RESULTS: 67 subjects were included. First and second CMR examinations were performed a median of 4 days before the first vaccination (interquartile range 1-8 days) and 5 days (interquartile range 3-6 days) after the second vaccination respectively. No significant change in global native T1, T2, ECV, LV EF, right ventricular EF, LV GLS, LGE, ECG, LDH, troponin-T and 6-min walk test was demonstrated after COVID-19 vaccination. There was a significant WCC decrease (6.51 ± 1.49 vs 5.98 ± 1.65, p = 0.003) and CRP increase (0.40 ± 0.22 vs 0.50 ± 0.29, p = 0.004). CONCLUSION: This study found no imaging, biochemical or ECG evidence of myocardial injury or inflammation post COVID-19 vaccination, thus providing some reassurance that COVID-19 vaccinations do not typically cause subclinical myocarditis.
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COVID-19 , Miocardite , Humanos , Miocardite/induzido quimicamente , Miocardite/diagnóstico por imagem , Vacinas contra COVID-19/efeitos adversos , Meios de Contraste/efeitos adversos , Estudos Prospectivos , Troponina T , Imagem Cinética por Ressonância Magnética/efeitos adversos , COVID-19/prevenção & controle , COVID-19/complicações , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Gadolínio , Imageamento por Ressonância Magnética/métodos , Função Ventricular Esquerda , Espectroscopia de Ressonância Magnética , Inflamação/complicações , Vacinação/efeitos adversosRESUMO
BACKGROUND. Prior small single-center studies have yielded conflicting results regarding the prognostic significance of myocardial strain parameters derived from feature tracking (FT) on cardiac MRI in patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM). OBJECTIVE. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the prognostic utility of FT parameters on cardiac MRI in patients with ischemic and nonischemic DCM and to determine the optimal strain parameter for outcome prediction. METHODS. This retrospective study included 471 patients (median age, 61 years; 365 men, 106 women) with ischemic (n = 233) or nonischemic (n = 238) DCM and left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction (EF) less than 50% who underwent cardiac MRI at any of four centers from January 2011 to December 2019. Cardiac MRI parameters were determined by manual contouring. In addition, software-based FT was used to calculate six myocardial strain parameters (LV and right ventricular [RV] global radial strain, global circumferential strain, and global longitudinal strain [GLS]). Late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) was also evaluated. Patients were assessed for a composite outcome of all-cause mortality and/or heart-failure hospitalization. Cox regression models were used to determine associations between strain parameters and the composite outcome. RESULTS. Mean LV EF was 27.5% and mean LV GLS was -6.9%. The median follow-up period was 1328 days. The composite outcome occurred in 220 patients (125 deaths, 95 heart-failure hospitalizations). All six myocardial strain parameters were significant independent predictors of the composite outcome (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.92-1.16; all p < .05). In multivariable models that included age, corrected LV and RV end-diastolic volume, LV and RV EF, and presence of LGE, the only strain parameter that was a significant independent predictor of the composite outcome was LV GLS (HR = 1.13, p = .006); LV EF and presence of LGE were not independent predictors of the composite outcome in the models (p > .05). A LV GLS threshold of -6.8% had sensitivity of 62.6% and specificity of 62.6% in predicting the composite outcome rate at 4.0 years. CONCLUSION. LV GLS, derived from FT on cardiac MRI, is a significant independent predictor of adverse outcomes in patients with DCM. CLINICAL IMPACT. This study strengthens the body of evidence supporting the clinical implementation of FT when performing cardiac MRI in patients with DCM.
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Cardiomiopatia Dilatada , Insuficiência Cardíaca , Masculino , Humanos , Feminino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Cardiomiopatia Dilatada/diagnóstico por imagem , Cardiomiopatia Dilatada/complicações , Prognóstico , Estudos Retrospectivos , Meios de Contraste , Gadolínio , Imageamento por Ressonância Magnética/efeitos adversos , Volume Sistólico , Imagem Cinética por Ressonância Magnética , Valor Preditivo dos TestesRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: The rate of organ donation in Hong Kong is among the lowest in developed regions. Since medical students will play an important role in counselling patients for organ donation and identifying potential donors in the future, their knowledge, attitudes and action for organ donation are important. This study aims to understand knowledge, attitudes and actions with regard to organ donation among medical students and investigate the factors determining the knowledge and attitudes. DESIGN: A cross-sectional study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Medical students in Hong Kong were invited to complete a questionnaire. 377 medical students participated in the study. METHODS: The questionnaire assessed their attitudes, knowledge, action of organ donation, belief and perception on organ donation, and other factors. Linear regression analyses and logistic regression were performed to analyse the effect of the variables on knowledge, attitudes and action for organ donation. RESULTS: Almost all medical students (99.5%) held a positive attitude towards organ donation, but only 28.1% have signed up as organ donors. Determinants of knowledge of organ donation included belief in preservation of intact body after death (ß = -0.14, 95% CI = -0.24 to -0.04) and perceived confidence and competence of organ donation discussion (ß = -0.12, 95% CI = -0.22 to -0.02). Predictors of organ donor registration status included knowledge of organ donation (OR=1.03, 95% CI=1.00 to 1.06), perceived convenience of organ donation registration (OR=3.75, 95% CI=1.62 to 8.71), commitment to organ donation (OR=3.81, 95% CI=2.01 to 7.21) and exposure to organ donation (OR=4.28, 95% CI=2.37 to 7.74). CONCLUSIONS: Knowledge is positively associated with organ donation action. The above determinants of organ donation could be emphasised in medical education.
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Estudantes de Medicina , Obtenção de Tecidos e Órgãos , Humanos , Hong Kong , Estudos Transversais , Conhecimentos, Atitudes e Prática em Saúde , Inquéritos e QuestionáriosRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Case reports of carditis after BNT162b2 vaccination are accruing worldwide. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association of BNT162b2 and CoronaVac (Sinovac) vaccination with carditis. DESIGN: Case-control study with hospital control participants. SETTING: Territory-wide, public health care database with linkage to population-based vaccination records in Hong Kong. PATIENTS: Inpatients aged 12 years or older first diagnosed with carditis were selected as case patients. All other hospitalized patients without carditis were treated as control participants. Ten control participants were randomly matched with each case patient by age, sex, and admission date. INTERVENTION: Vaccination with BNT162b2 or CoronaVac. MEASUREMENTS: Incident diagnosis of carditis based on the International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, and elevated troponin levels. RESULTS: A total of 160 case patients and 1533 control participants were included. Incidence of carditis per 100 000 doses of CoronaVac and BNT162b2 administered was estimated to be 0.31 (95% CI, 0.13 to 0.66) and 0.57 (CI, 0.36 to 0.90), respectively. Multivariable analyses showed that recipients of the BNT162b2 vaccine had higher odds of carditis (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 3.57 [CI, 1.93 to 6.60]) than unvaccinated persons. Stratified by sex, the OR was 4.68 (CI, 2.25 to 9.71) for males and 2.22 (CI, 0.57 to 8.69) for females receiving the BNT162b2 vaccine. The ORs for adults and adolescents receiving the BNT162b2 vaccine were 2.41 (CI, 1.18 to 4.90) and 13.79 (CI, 2.86 to 110.38), respectively. Subanalysis showed an OR of 9.29 (CI, 3.94 to 21.91) for myocarditis and 1.06 (CI, 0.35 to 3.22) for pericarditis associated with BNT162b2. The risk was mainly seen after the second dose of BNT162b2 rather than the first. No association between CoronaVac and carditis with a magnitude similar to that for BNT162b2 was seen. LIMITATION: Limited sample size, absence of electrocardiography and other clinical investigative data, and unrecorded overseas vaccination exposure. CONCLUSION: Despite a low absolute risk, there is an increased risk for carditis associated with BNT162b2 vaccination. This elevated risk should be weighed against the benefits of vaccination. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: Health and Medical Research Fund.