predicTTE: An accessible and optimal tool for time-to-event prediction in neurological diseases.

Time-to-event prediction is a key task for biological discovery, experimental medicine, and clinical care. This is particularly true for neurological diseases where development of reliable biomarkers is often limited by difficulty visualising and sampling relevant cell and molecular pathobiology. To date, much work has relied on Cox regression because of ease-of-use, despite evidence that this model includes incorrect assumptions. We have implemented a set of deep learning and spline models for time-to-event modelling within a fully customizable 'app' and accompanying online portal, both of which can be used for any time-to-event analysis in any disease by a non-expert user. Our online portal includes capacity for end-users including patients, Neurology clinicians, and researchers, to access and perform predictions using a trained model, and to contribute new data for model improvement, all within a data-secure environment. We demonstrate a pipeline for use of our app with three use-cases including imputation of missing data, hyperparameter tuning, model training and independent validation. We show that predictions are optimal for use in downstream applications such as genetic discovery, biomarker interpretation, and personalised choice of medication. We demonstrate the efficiency of an ensemble configuration, including focused training of a deep learning model. We have optimised a pipeline for imputation of missing data in combination with time-to-event prediction models. Overall, we provide a powerful and accessible tool to develop, access and share time-to-event prediction models; all software and tutorials are available at www.predictte.org.

Rare and common genetic determinants of mitochondrial function determine severity but not risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurodegenerative disease involving selective vulnerability of energy-intensive motor neurons (MNs). It has been unclear whether mitochondrial function is an upstream driver or a downstream modifier of neurotoxicity. We separated upstream genetic determinants of mitochondrial function, including genetic variation within the mitochondrial genome or autosomes; from downstream changeable factors including mitochondrial DNA copy number (mtCN). Across three cohorts including 6,437 ALS patients, we discovered that a set of mitochondrial haplotypes, chosen because they are linked to measurements of mitochondrial function, are a determinant of ALS survival following disease onset, but do not modify ALS risk. One particular haplotype appeared to be neuroprotective and was significantly over-represented in two cohorts of long-surviving ALS patients. Causal inference for mitochondrial function was achievable using mitochondrial haplotypes, but not autosomal SNPs in traditional Mendelian randomization (MR). Furthermore, rare loss-of-function genetic variants within, and reduced MN expression of, ACADM and DNA2 lead to ∼50 % shorter ALS survival; both proteins are implicated in mitochondrial function. Both mtCN and cellular vulnerability are linked to DNA2 function in ALS patient-derived neurons. Finally, MtCN responds dynamically to the onset of ALS independently of mitochondrial haplotype, and is correlated with disease severity. We conclude that, based on the genetic measures we have employed, mitochondrial function is a therapeutic target for amelioration of disease severity but not prevention of ALS.