Mortality surrogates in combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema.

BACKGROUND: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) with coexistent emphysema, termed combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema (CPFE) may associate with reduced forced vital capacity (FVC) declines compared to non-CPFE IPF patients. We examined associations between mortality and functional measures of disease progression in two IPF cohorts. METHODS: Visual emphysema presence (>0% emphysema) scored on computed tomography identified CPFE patients (CPFE/non-CPFE: derivation cohort n=317/n=183, replication cohort n=358/n=152), who were subgrouped using 10% or 15% visual emphysema thresholds, and an unsupervised machine-learning model considering emphysema and interstitial lung disease extents. Baseline characteristics, 1-year relative FVC and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (D LCO) decline (linear mixed-effects models), and their associations with mortality (multivariable Cox regression models) were compared across non-CPFE and CPFE subgroups. RESULTS: In both IPF cohorts, CPFE patients with ≥10% emphysema had a greater smoking history and lower baseline D LCO compared to CPFE patients with <10% emphysema. Using multivariable Cox regression analyses in patients with ≥10% emphysema, 1-year D LCO decline showed stronger mortality associations than 1-year FVC decline. Results were maintained in patients suitable for therapeutic IPF trials and in subjects subgrouped by ≥15% emphysema and using unsupervised machine learning. Importantly, the unsupervised machine-learning approach identified CPFE patients in whom FVC decline did not associate strongly with mortality. In non-CPFE IPF patients, 1-year FVC declines ≥5% and ≥10% showed strong mortality associations. CONCLUSION: When assessing disease progression in IPF, D LCO decline should be considered in patients with ≥10% emphysema and a ≥5% 1-year relative FVC decline threshold considered in non-CPFE IPF patients.

A formula for predicting emphysema extent in combined idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema.

BACKGROUND: No single pulmonary function test captures the functional effect of emphysema in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). Without experienced radiologists, other methods are needed to determine emphysema extent. Here, we report the development and validation of a formula to predict emphysema extent in patients with IPF and emphysema. METHODS: The development cohort included 76 patients with combined IPF and emphysema at the Royal Brompton Hospital, London, United Kingdom. The formula was derived using stepwise regression to generate the weighted combination of pulmonary function data that fitted best with emphysema extent on high-resolution computed tomography. Test cohorts included patients from two clinical trials (n = 455 [n = 174 with emphysema]; NCT00047645, NCT00075998) and a real-world cohort from the Royal Brompton Hospital (n = 191 [n = 110 with emphysema]). The formula is only applicable for patients with IPF and concomitant emphysema and accordingly was not used to detect the presence or absence of emphysema. RESULTS: The formula was: predicted emphysema extent = 12.67 + (0.92 x percent predicted forced vital capacity) - (0.65 x percent predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second) - (0.52 x percent predicted carbon monoxide diffusing capacity). A significant relationship between the formula and observed emphysema extent was found in both cohorts (R2 = 0.25, P < 0.0001; R2 = 0.47, P < 0.0001, respectively). In both, the formula better predicted observed emphysema extent versus individual pulmonary function tests. A 15% emphysema extent threshold, calculated using the formula, identified a significant difference in absolute changes from baseline in forced vital capacity at Week 48 in patients with baseline-predicted emphysema extent < 15% versus ≥ 15% (P = 0.0105). CONCLUSION: The formula, designed for use in patients with IPF and emphysema, demonstrated enhanced ability to predict emphysema extent versus individual pulmonary function tests. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT00047645; NCT00075998.

Low bleeding rates following transbronchial lung cryobiopsy in unclassifiable interstitial lung disease.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Bronchoscopic transbronchial lung cryobiopsy (TBLC) is a guideline-endorsed alternative to surgical lung biopsy for tissue diagnosis in unclassifiable interstitial lung disease (ILD). The reported incidence of post-procedural bleeding has varied widely. We aimed to characterize the incidence, severity and risk factors for clinically significant bleeding following TBLC using an expert-consensus airway bleeding scale, in addition to other complications and diagnostic yield. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of consecutive adult outpatients with unclassifiable ILD who underwent TBLC following multidisciplinary discussion at a single centre in the UK between July 2016 and December 2021. TBLC was performed under general anaesthesia with fluoroscopic guidance and a prophylactic endobronchial balloon. RESULTS: One hundred twenty-six patients underwent TBLC (68.3% male; mean age 62.7 years; FVC 86.2%; DLCO 54.5%). Significant bleeding requiring balloon blocker reinflation for >20 min, admission to ICU, packed red blood cell transfusion, bronchial artery embolization, resuscitation or procedural abandonment, occurred in 10 cases (7.9%). Significant bleeding was associated with traction bronchiectasis on HRCT (OR 7.1, CI 1.1-59.1, p = 0.042), a TBLC histological pattern of UIP (OR 4.0, CI 1.1-14, p = 0.046) and the presence of medium-large vessels on histology (OR 37.3, CI 6.5-212, p < 0.001). BMI ≥30 (p = 0.017) and traction bronchiectasis on HRCT (p = 0.025) were significant multivariate predictors of longer total bleeding time (p = 0.017). Pneumothorax occurred in nine cases (7.1%) and the 30-day mortality was 0%. Diagnostic yield was 80.6%. CONCLUSION: TBLC has an acceptable safety profile in experienced hands. Radiological traction bronchiectasis and obesity increase the risk of significant bleeding following TBLC.

Serum C-reactive protein is associated with earlier mortality across different interstitial lung diseases.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: The acute-phase protein C-reactive protein (CRP) is known to be associated with poor outcomes in cancer and cardiovascular disease, but there is limited evidence of its prognostic implications in interstitial lung diseases (ILDs). We therefore set out to test whether baseline serum CRP levels are associated with mortality in four different ILDs. METHODS: In this retrospective study, clinically measured CRP levels, as well as baseline demographics and lung function measures, were collected for ILD patients first presenting to the Royal Brompton Hospital between January 2010 and December 2019. Cox regression analysis was used to determine the relationship with 5-year mortality. RESULTS: Patients included in the study were: idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) n = 422, fibrotic hypersensitivity pneumonitis (fHP) n = 233, rheumatoid arthritis associated ILD (RA-ILD) n = 111 and Systemic Sclerosis associated ILD (SSc-ILD) n = 86. Patients with a recent history of infection were excluded. Higher CRP levels were associated with shorter 5-year survival in all four disease groups on both univariable analyses, and after adjusting for age, gender, smoking history, immunosuppressive therapy and baseline disease severity (IPF: HR (95% CI): 1.3 (1.1-1.5), p = 0.003, fHP: 1.5 (1.2-1.9), p = 0.001, RA-ILD: 1.4 (1.1-1.84), p = 0.01 and SSc-ILD: 2.7 (1.6-4.5), p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Higher CRP levels are independently associated with reduced 5-year survival in IPF, fHP, RA-ILD and SSc-ILD.

Validation of Proposed Criteria for Progressive Pulmonary Fibrosis.

Rationale: Criteria for progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF) have been proposed, but their prognostic value beyond categorical decline in FVC remains unclear. Objectives: To determine whether proposed PPF criteria predict transplant-free survival (TFS) in patients with non-idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) forms of interstitial lung disease (ILD). Methods: A retrospective, multicenter cohort analysis was performed. Patients with diagnoses of fibrotic connective tissue disease-associated ILD, fibrotic hypersensitivity pneumonitis, and non-IPF idiopathic interstitial pneumonia from three U.S. centers and one UK center constituted the test and validation cohorts, respectively. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to test the association between 5-year TFS and ⩾10% FVC decline, followed by 13 additional PPF criteria satisfied in the absence of ⩾10% FVC decline. Measurements and Main Results: One thousand three hundred forty-one patients met the inclusion criteria. A ⩾10% relative FVC decline was the strongest predictor of reduced TFS and showed consistent TFS association across cohorts, ILD subtypes, and treatment groups, resulting in a phenotype that closely resembled IPF. Ten additional PPF criteria satisfied in the absence of 10% relative FVC decline were also associated with reduced TFS in the U.S. test cohort, with 6 maintaining TFS associations in the UK validation cohort. Validated PPF criteria requiring a combination of physiologic, radiologic, and symptomatic worsening performed similarly to their stand-alone components but captured a smaller number of patients. Conclusions: An FVC decline of ⩾10% and six additional PPF criteria satisfied in the absence of such decline identify patients with non-IPF ILD at increased risk for death or lung transplantation.

Combination of BAL and Computed Tomography Differentiates Progressive and Non-progressive Fibrotic Lung Diseases.

Rationale: Identifying patients with pulmonary fibrosis (PF) at risk of progression can guide management. Objectives: To explore the utility of combining baseline BAL and computed tomography (CT) in differentiating progressive and nonprogressive PF. Methods: The derivation cohort consisted of incident cases of PF for which BAL was performed as part of a diagnostic workup. A validation cohort was prospectively recruited with identical inclusion criteria. Baseline thoracic CT scans were scored for the extent of fibrosis and usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP) pattern. The BAL lymphocyte proportion was recorded. Annualized FVC decrease of >10% or death within 1 year was used to define disease progression. Multivariable logistic regression identified the determinants of the outcome. The optimum binary thresholds (maximal Wilcoxon rank statistic) at which the extent of fibrosis on CT and the BAL lymphocyte proportion could distinguish disease progression were identified. Measurements and Main Results: BAL lymphocyte proportion, UIP pattern, and fibrosis extent were significantly and independently associated with disease progression in the derivation cohort (n = 240). Binary thresholds for increased BAL lymphocyte proportion and extensive fibrosis were identified as 25% and 20%, respectively. An increased BAL lymphocyte proportion was rare in patients with a UIP pattern (8 of 135; 5.9%) or with extensive fibrosis (7 of 144; 4.9%). In the validation cohort (n = 290), an increased BAL lymphocyte proportion was associated with a significantly lower probability of disease progression in patients with nonextensive fibrosis or a non-UIP pattern. Conclusions: BAL lymphocytosis is rare in patients with extensive fibrosis or a UIP pattern on CT. In patients without a UIP pattern or with limited fibrosis, a BAL lymphocyte proportion of ⩾25% was associated with a lower likelihood of progression.

Progressive pulmonary fibrosis: an expert group consensus statement.

This expert group consensus statement emphasises the need for standardising the definition of progressive fibrosing interstitial lung diseases (F-ILDs), with an accurate initial diagnosis being of paramount importance in ensuring appropriate initial management. Equally, case-by-case decisions on monitoring and management are essential, given the varying presentations of F-ILDs and the varying rates of progression. The value of diagnostic tests in risk stratification at presentation and, separately, the importance of a logical monitoring strategy, tailored to manage the risk of progression, are also stressed. The term "progressive pulmonary fibrosis" (PPF) exactly describes the entity that clinicians often face in practice. The importance of using antifibrotic therapy early in PPF (once initial management has failed to prevent progression) is increasingly supported by evidence. Artificial intelligence software for high-resolution computed tomography analysis, although an exciting tool for the future, awaits validation. Guidance is provided on pulmonary rehabilitation, oxygen and the use of non-invasive ventilation focused specifically on the needs of ILD patients with progressive disease. PPF should be differentiated from acute deterioration due to drug-induced lung toxicity or other forms of acute exacerbations. Referral criteria for a lung transplant are discussed and applied to patient needs in severe diseases where transplantation is not realistic, either due to access limitations or transplantation contraindications. In conclusion, expert group consensus guidance is provided on the diagnosis, treatment and monitoring of F-ILDs with specific focus on the recognition of PPF and the management of pulmonary fibrosis progressing despite initial management.

Extent of fibrosis and lung function decline in patients with systemic sclerosis and interstitial lung disease: data from the SENSCIS trial.

OBJECTIVE: To assess associations between the extent of fibrotic interstitial lung disease (ILD) and forced vital capacity (FVC) at baseline and change in FVC over 52 weeks in patients with systemic sclerosis-associated ILD (SSc-ILD) in the SENSCIS trial. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We used generalized additive models, which involve few assumptions and allow for interaction between non-linear effects, to assess associations between the extent of fibrotic ILD on high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT), and the interplay of extent of fibrotic ILD on HRCT and FVC % predicted, at baseline and FVC decline over 52 weeks. RESULTS: In the placebo group (n = 288), there was weak evidence of a modest association between a greater extent of fibrotic ILD at baseline and a greater decline in FVC % predicted at week 52 [r: -0.09 (95% CI -0.2, 0.03)]. Higher values of both the extent of fibrotic ILD and FVC % predicted at baseline tended to be associated with greater decline in FVC % predicted at week 52. In the nintedanib group (n = 288), there was no evidence of an association between the extent of fibrotic ILD at baseline and decline in FVC % predicted at week 52 [r: 0.01 (95% CI: -0.11, 0.12)] or between the interplay of extent of fibrotic ILD and FVC % predicted at baseline and decline in FVC % predicted at week 52. CONCLUSIONS: Data from the SENSCIS trial suggest that patients with SSc-ILD are at risk of ILD progression and benefit from nintedanib largely irrespective of their extent of fibrotic ILD at baseline. STUDY REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, https://clinicaltrials.gov, NCT02597933.

Antibody predictors of mortality and lung function trends in myositis spectrum interstitial lung disease.

OBJECTIVES: The impact of autoantibody profiles on prognosis of idiopathic inflammatory myositis associated interstitial lung disease (IIM-ILD) and myositis spectrum ILD with Myositis Specific Antibodies (MSA) remains unclear. This retrospective cohort study examines whether serological profiles are associated with mortality and longitudinal lung function change. METHODS: Baseline clinical/demographic characteristics and follow-up lung function of consecutive adult patients with IIM-ILD or Interstitial Pneumonia with Autoimmune Features (IPAF) positive for MSAs were extracted from three hospitals. Univariate and multi-variate Cox-Proportional Hazards analyses were used to compare mortality between autoantibodies. Regression models were used to analyse lung function trends. RESULTS: Of 430 included patients, 81% met IIM criteria, 19% were IPAF-MSA. On univariate analysis, risk factors associated with mortality included higher age, Charlson Co-morbidity Index and CRP; and lower BMI, baseline TLCO% and FEV1%. Compared to anti-MDA5-negativity, anti-MDA5-positivity (MDA5+) was associated with high mortality in the first 3 months (HR 65.2. 95%CI 14.1, 302.0), while no significant difference was seen thereafter (HR 0.55, 95%CI 0.14, 2.28). On multi-variate analysis, combined anti-synthetase antibodies carried a reduced risk of mortality (HR 0.63), although individually, mortality was reduced in anti-Jo1 + (HR 0.61, 95%CI 0.4-0.87) and increased in anti-PL7+ patients (HR 2.07, 95%CI 1.44-2.99). Anti-MDA5+ was associated with slow improvement in %FVC over the first 3 years, while anti-PL7+ was linked with a slow decline from 12 months onwards. CONCLUSIONS: Among autoantibody profiles in myositis spectrum disorders, anti-MDA5+ and anti-PL7+ confer higher mortality risks. Survivors of an early peak of mortality in anti-MDA5+ disease appear to have a favourable prognosis.

Systemic sclerosis associated interstitial lung disease: a conceptual framework for subclinical, clinical and progressive disease.

OBJECTIVES: To establish a framework by which experts define disease subsets in systemic sclerosis associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD). METHODS: A conceptual framework for subclinical, clinical and progressive ILD was provided to 83 experts, asking them to use the framework and classify actual SSc-ILD patients. Each patient profile was designed to be classified by at least four experts in terms of severity and risk of progression at baseline; progression was based on 1-year follow-up data. A consensus was reached if ≥75% of experts agreed. Experts provided information on which items were important in determining classification. RESULTS: Forty-four experts (53%) completed the survey. Consensus was achieved on the dimensions of severity (75%, 60 of 80 profiles), risk of progression (71%, 57 of 80 profiles) and progressive ILD (60%, 24 of 40 profiles). For profiles achieving consensus, most were classified as clinical ILD (92%), low risk (54%) and stable (71%). Severity and disease progression overlapped in terms of framework items that were most influential in classifying patients (forced vital capacity, extent of lung involvement on high resolution chest CT [HRCT]); risk of progression was influenced primarily by disease duration. CONCLUSIONS: Using our proposed conceptual framework, international experts were able to achieve a consensus on classifying SSc-ILD patients along the dimensions of disease severity, risk of progression and progression over time. Experts rely on similar items when classifying disease severity and progression: a combination of spirometry and gas exchange and quantitative HRCT.

Patterns of progression in non-IPF fibrotic interstitial lung disease.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To characterize patterns of disease progression in the designation of progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF), including their relative prevalence and subsequent prognostic significance, in patients with fibrotic interstitial lung disease (ILD), including key patient sub-groups. RECENT FINDINGS: In recent large clinical cohorts, PPF criteria suited to early PPF identification, based on their prevalence and short time to progression, include a relative forced vital capacity (FVC) decline exceeding 10% and various combinations of lower thresholds for FVC decline, symptomatic worsening and serial progression of fibrosis on imaging. Amongst numerous candidate PPF criteria, these progression patterns may have the greatest prognostic significance based on subsequent mortality, although there are conflicting data based on subsequent FVC progression. The prevalence of patterns of progression is similar across major diagnostic sub-groups with the striking exception of patients with underlying inflammatory myopathy. SUMMARY: Based on prevalence and the prognostic significance of PPF criteria, and the need for early identification of disease progression, recent published data in large clinical cohorts provide support for the use of the INBUILD PPF criteria. The patterns of disease progression used to designate PPF in a recent multinational guideline are mostly not based on data in previous and subsequent real-world cohorts.

The role of primary care in sarcoidosis.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The current review aims to highlight the role of primary care physicians in the diagnosis, treatment and monitoring of patients with sarcoidosis. Increased awareness of the clinical and imaging manifestations of the disease as well as the natural disease course will help for earlier and more accurate diagnosis as well as detection of high-risk patients who would benefit from treatment introduction. RECENT FINDINGS: Recent guidelines have attempted to deal with the confusion related to treatment indications, duration and monitoring of treatment in patients with sarcoidosis. Nonetheless, important points require further clarification. Primary care physicians may be the first to confront disease exacerbation, deterioration despite treatment and/or treatment-induced side effects. Furthermore, they are the physicians that remain closer to the patient providing a significant amount of information, psychological support and assessment for sarcoidosis-specific or not issues. The treatment strategy for each organ is complex, but the principles of treatment have been explored. SUMMARY: There have been considerable advances in the diagnostic and management approach of patients with sarcoidosis. Multidisciplinary approach for both diagnosis and management seems optimal. Validating risk stratification strategies and standardizing the monitoring process is appropriate for the future.

Nintedanib in Asian patients with progressive fibrosing interstitial lung diseases: Results from the INBUILD trial.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: In the INBUILD trial in patients with progressive fibrosing interstitial lung diseases (ILDs), nintedanib reduced the rate of decline in forced vital capacity (FVC) with an adverse event profile characterized mainly by gastrointestinal events. We analysed the effects of nintedanib in the subset of Asian subjects. METHODS: Subjects with fibrosing ILDs other than idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis who had shown progression of ILD at any time within the prior 24 months despite management deemed appropriate in clinical practice were randomized to receive nintedanib or placebo. We analysed the rate of decline in FVC (ml/year) over 52 weeks in all Asian subjects and in Asian subjects with a usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP)-like fibrotic pattern on high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT). RESULTS: One hundred sixty-four subjects in the INBUILD trial were of Asian race. The rate of decline in FVC (ml/year) over 52 weeks in this subgroup was -116.8 in the nintedanib group and -207.9 in the placebo group (difference: 91.0 [95% CI: 8.1, 173.9]; nominal p = 0.03). In Asian subjects with a UIP-like fibrotic pattern on HRCT, the rate of decline in FVC (ml/year) over 52 weeks was -130.1 in the nintedanib group and -224.2 in the placebo group (difference: 94.1 [5.5, 182.7]; nominal p = 0.04). Adverse events led to treatment discontinuation in 19.0% of the nintedanib group and 13.8% of the placebo group. CONCLUSION: In Asian patients with progressive fibrosing ILDs, nintedanib reduced the rate of decline in FVC with adverse events that were manageable for most patients.

Phosphodiesterase 5 inhibitor treatment and survival in interstitial lung disease pulmonary hypertension: A Bayesian retrospective observational cohort study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Pulmonary hypertension is a life-limiting complication of interstitial lung disease (ILD-PH). We investigated whether treatment with phosphodiesterase 5 inhibitors (PDE5i) in patients with ILD-PH was associated with improved survival. METHODS: Consecutive incident patients with ILD-PH and right heart catheterisation, echocardiography and spirometry data were followed from diagnosis to death, transplantation or censoring with all follow-up and survival data modelled by Bayesian methods. RESULTS: The diagnoses in 128 patients were idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (n = 74, 58%), hypersensitivity pneumonitis (n = 17, 13%), non-specific interstitial pneumonia (n = 12, 9%), undifferentiated ILD (n = 8, 6%) and other lung diseases (n = 17, 13%). Final outcomes were death (n = 106, 83%), transplantation (n = 9, 7%) and censoring (n = 13, 10%). Patients treated with PDE5i (n = 50, 39%) had higher mean pulmonary artery pressure (median 38 mm Hg [interquartile range, IQR: 34, 43] vs. 35 mm Hg [IQR: 31, 38], p = 0.07) and percentage predicted forced vital capacity (FVC; median 57% [IQR: 51, 73] vs. 52% [IQR: 45, 66], p=0.08) though differences did not reach significance. Patients treated with PDE5i survived longer than untreated patients (median 2.18 years [95% CI: 1.43, 3.04] vs. 0.94 years [0.69, 1.51], p = 0.003) independent of all other prognostic markers by Bayesian joint-modelling (HR 0.39, 95% CI: 0.23, 0.59, p < 0.001) and propensity-matched analyses (HR 0.38, 95% CI: 0.22, 0.58, p < 0.001). Survival difference with treatment was significantly larger if right ventricular function was normal, rather than abnormal, at presentation (+2.55 years, 95% CI: -0.03, +3.97 vs. +0.98 years, 95% CI: +0.47, +2.00, p = 0.04). CONCLUSION: PDE5i treatment in ILD-PH should be investigated by a prospective randomized trial.

CYFRA 21-1 Predicts Progression in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: A Prospective Longitudinal Analysis of the PROFILE Cohort.

Rationale: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive and inevitably fatal condition for which there are a lack of effective biomarkers to guide therapeutic decision making. Objectives: To determine the relationship between serum concentrations of the cytokeratin fragment CYFRA 21-1 and disease progression and mortality in individuals with IPF enrolled in the Prospective Observation of Fibrosis in the Lung Clinical Endpoints (PROFILE) study. Methods: CYFRA 21-1 was identified by immunohistochemistry in samples of human lung obtained at surgery. Concentrations of CYFRA 21-1 were measured using an ELISA-based assay in serum samples collected at baseline, 1 month, and 3 months from 491 individuals with an incident diagnosis of IPF who were enrolled in the PROFILE study and from 100 control subjects at baseline. Study subjects were followed for a minimum of 3 years after their first blood draw. Measurements and Main Results: CYFRA 21-1 localizes to hyperplastic epithelium in IPF lung tissue. Peripheral CYFRA 21-1 concentrations were significantly higher in subjects with IPF than in healthy control subjects in both the discovery (n = 132) (control: 0.96 ± 0.81 ng/ml; vs. IPF: 2.34 ± 2.15 ng/ml; P < 0.0001) and validation (n = 359) (control: 2.21 ± 1.54 ng/ml; and IPF: 4.13 ± 2.77 ng/ml; P < 0.0001) cohorts. Baseline concentrations of CYFRA 21-1 were able to distinguish individuals at risk of 12-month disease progression (C-statistic, 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.61-0.79; P < 0.0001) and were predictive of overall mortality (hazard ratio, 1.12 [95% confidence interval, 1.06-1.19] per 1 ng/ml increase in CYFRA 21-1; P = 0.0001). Furthermore, 3-month change in concentrations of CYFRA 21-1 separately predicted 12-month and overall survival in both the discovery and validation cohorts. Conclusions: CYFRA 21-1, a marker of epithelial damage and turnover, has the potential to be an important prognostic and therapeutic biomarker in individuals with IPF.

Deep Learning-based Outcome Prediction in Progressive Fibrotic Lung Disease Using High-Resolution Computed Tomography.

Rationale: Reliable outcome prediction in patients with fibrotic lung disease using baseline high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) data remains challenging. Objectives: To evaluate the prognostic accuracy of a deep learning algorithm (SOFIA [Systematic Objective Fibrotic Imaging Analysis Algorithm]), trained and validated in the identification of usual interstitial pneumonia (UIP)-like features on HRCT (UIP probability), in a large cohort of well-characterized patients with progressive fibrotic lung disease drawn from a national registry. Methods: SOFIA and radiologist UIP probabilities were converted to Prospective Investigation of Pulmonary Embolism Diagnosis (PIOPED)-based UIP probability categories (UIP not included in the differential, 0-4%; low probability of UIP, 5-29%; intermediate probability of UIP, 30-69%; high probability of UIP, 70-94%; and pathognomonic for UIP, 95-100%), and their prognostic utility was assessed using Cox proportional hazards modeling. Measurements and Main Results: In multivariable analysis adjusting for age, sex, guideline-based radiologic diagnosis, anddisease severity (using total interstitial lung disease [ILD] extent on HRCT, percent predicted FVC, DlCO, or the composite physiologic index), only SOFIA UIP probability PIOPED categories predicted survival. SOFIA-PIOPED UIP probability categories remained prognostically significant in patients considered indeterminate (n = 83) by expert radiologist consensus (hazard ratio, 1.73; P < 0.0001; 95% confidence interval, 1.40-2.14). In patients undergoing surgical lung biopsy (n = 86), after adjusting for guideline-based histologic pattern and total ILD extent on HRCT, only SOFIA-PIOPED probabilities were predictive of mortality (hazard ratio, 1.75; P < 0.0001; 95% confidence interval, 1.37-2.25). Conclusions: Deep learning-based UIP probability on HRCT provides enhanced outcome prediction in patients with progressive fibrotic lung disease when compared with expert radiologist evaluation or guideline-based histologic pattern. In principle, this tool may be useful in multidisciplinary characterization of fibrotic lung disease. The utility of this technology as a decision support system when ILD expertise is unavailable requires further investigation.

Integrating Clinical Probability into the Diagnostic Approach to Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: An International Working Group Perspective.

Background: When considering the diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), experienced clinicians integrate clinical features that help to differentiate IPF from other fibrosing interstitial lung diseases, thus generating a "pre-test" probability of IPF. The aim of this international working group perspective was to summarize these features using a tabulated approach similar to chest HRCT and histopathologic patterns reported in the international guidelines for the diagnosis of IPF, and to help formally incorporate these clinical likelihoods into diagnostic reasoning to facilitate the diagnosis of IPF. Methods: The committee group identified factors that influence the clinical likelihood of a diagnosis of IPF, which was categorized as a pre-test clinical probability of IPF into "high" (70-100%), "intermediate" (30-70%), or "low" (0-30%). After integration of radiological and histopathological features, the post-test probability of diagnosis was categorized into "definite" (90-100%), "high confidence" (70-89%), "low confidence" (51-69%), or "low" (0-50%) probability of IPF. Findings: A conceptual Bayesian framework was created, integrating the clinical likelihood of IPF ("pre-test probability of IPF") with the HRCT pattern, the histopathology pattern when available, and/or the pattern of observed disease behavior, into a "post-test probability of IPF." The diagnostic probability of IPF was expressed using an adapted diagnostic ontology for fibrotic interstitial lung diseases. Interpretation: The present approach will help incorporate the clinical judgment into the diagnosis of IPF, thus facilitating the application of IPF diagnostic guidelines and, ultimately improving diagnostic confidence and reducing the need for invasive diagnostic techniques.

Syndrome of Combined Pulmonary Fibrosis and Emphysema: An Official ATS/ERS/JRS/ALAT Research Statement.

Background: The presence of emphysema is relatively common in patients with fibrotic interstitial lung disease. This has been designated combined pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema (CPFE). The lack of consensus over definitions and diagnostic criteria has limited CPFE research. Goals: The objectives of this task force were to review the terminology, definition, characteristics, pathophysiology, and research priorities of CPFE and to explore whether CPFE is a syndrome. Methods: This research statement was developed by a committee including 19 pulmonologists, 5 radiologists, 3 pathologists, 2 methodologists, and 2 patient representatives. The final document was supported by a focused systematic review that identified and summarized all recent publications related to CPFE. Results: This task force identified that patients with CPFE are predominantly male, with a history of smoking, severe dyspnea, relatively preserved airflow rates and lung volumes on spirometry, severely impaired DlCO, exertional hypoxemia, frequent pulmonary hypertension, and a dismal prognosis. The committee proposes to identify CPFE as a syndrome, given the clustering of pulmonary fibrosis and emphysema, shared pathogenetic pathways, unique considerations related to disease progression, increased risk of complications (pulmonary hypertension, lung cancer, and/or mortality), and implications for clinical trial design. There are varying features of interstitial lung disease and emphysema in CPFE. The committee offers a research definition and classification criteria and proposes that studies on CPFE include a comprehensive description of radiologic and, when available, pathological patterns, including some recently described patterns such as smoking-related interstitial fibrosis. Conclusions: This statement delineates the syndrome of CPFE and highlights research priorities.

Nintedanib in Progressive Fibrosing Interstitial Lung Diseases.

BACKGROUND: Preclinical data have suggested that nintedanib, an intracellular inhibitor of tyrosine kinases, inhibits processes involved in the progression of lung fibrosis. Although the efficacy of nintedanib has been shown in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, its efficacy across a broad range of fibrosing lung diseases is unknown. METHODS: In this double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial conducted in 15 countries, we randomly assigned patients with fibrosing lung disease affecting more than 10% of lung volume on high-resolution computed tomography (CT) to receive nintedanib at a dose of 150 mg twice daily or placebo. All the patients met criteria for progression of interstitial lung disease in the past 24 months despite treatment and had a forced vital capacity (FVC) of at least 45% of the predicted value and a diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide ranging from 30 to less than 80% of the predicted value. Randomization was stratified according to the fibrotic pattern (a pattern of usual interstitial pneumonia [UIP] or other fibrotic patterns) on high-resolution CT. The primary end point was the annual rate of decline in the FVC, as assessed over a 52-week period. The two primary populations for analysis were the overall population and patients with a UIP-like fibrotic pattern. RESULTS: A total of 663 patients were treated. In the overall population, the adjusted rate of decline in the FVC was -80.8 ml per year with nintedanib and -187.8 ml per year with placebo, for a between-group difference of 107.0 ml per year (95% confidence interval [CI], 65.4 to 148.5; P<0.001). In patients with a UIP-like fibrotic pattern, the adjusted rate of decline in the FVC was -82.9 ml per year with nintedanib and -211.1 ml per year with placebo, for a difference of 128.2 ml (95% CI, 70.8 to 185.6; P<0.001). Diarrhea was the most common adverse event, as reported in 66.9% and 23.9% of patients treated with nintedanib and placebo, respectively. Abnormalities on liver-function testing were more common in the nintedanib group than in the placebo group. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with progressive fibrosing interstitial lung diseases, the annual rate of decline in the FVC was significantly lower among patients who received nintedanib than among those who received placebo. Diarrhea was a common adverse event. (Funded by Boehringer Ingelheim; INBUILD ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT02999178.).

Lung cancer screening provides an opportunity for early diagnosis and treatment of interstitial lung disease.

Interstitial lung abnormalities (ILA) can be incidentally detected in patients undergoing low-dose CT screening for lung cancer. In this retrospective study, we explore the downstream impact of ILA detection on interstitial lung disease (ILD) diagnosis and treatment. Using a targeted approach in a lung cancer screening programme, the rate of de novo ILD diagnosis was 1.5%. The extent of abnormality on CT and severity of lung function impairment, but not symptoms were the most important factors in differentiating ILA from ILD. Disease modifying therapies were commenced in 39% of ILD cases, the majority being antifibrotic therapy for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.