Regional trends for bud burst and flowering of woody plants in Norway as related to climate change.

Data series for bud burst, beginning of flowering and petal fall for 20 species of deciduous trees and conifers at four sites in different regions of southern Norway have been analysed and related to temperature series. On average, the spring phenophases occurred 7 days earlier during the period 1971-2005. The most significant linear trends were observed for the earliest phases. The trends in this period were compared with trends in other periods, the longest one starting in 1927. Those starting in cold decades and ending in 2005 were in most instances statistically significant, whereas hardly any significant trend appeared for series starting in warm decades. This fact showed that the results of trend studies are very sensitive to the choice of starting year. There were significant decadal variations in 40% of the series. The dates of occurrence of the phenophases, varying from the first days of May to the first days of June, correlated with seasonal temperature series, in most cases strongest to mean temperatures for the seasons March-May and April-May. The North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) for January and February appeared to have some predictive power for the date of occurrence of the recorded phases. The basis for this may be that the oscillations described by the index are of importance for the fulfilment of physiological chilling requirements needed to break bud dormancy. The same genotypes of the trees were grown in region West Norway and in Central Norwegian region; during the period 1965-2005 the trends towards earlier bud burst were more pronounced and steeper at the western site.

Growing seasons of Nordic mountain birch in northernmost Europe as indicated by long-term field studies and analyses of satellite images.

The phenophases first greening (bud burst) and yellowing of Nordic mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp.tortuosa, also called B. p. ssp. czerepanovii) were observed at three sites on the Kola Peninsula in northernmost Europe during the period 1964-2003, and at two sites in the trans-boundary Pasvik-Enare region during 1994-2003. The field observations were compared with satellite images based on the GIMMS-NDVI dataset covering 1982-2002 at the start and end of the growing season. A trend for a delay of first greening was observed at only one of the sites (Kandalaksha) over the 40 year period. This fits well with the delayed onset of the growing season for that site based on satellite images. No significant changes in time of greening at the other sites were found with either field observations or satellite analyses throughout the study period. These results differ from the earlier spring generally observed in other parts of Europe in recent decades. In the coldest regions of Europe, e.g. in northern high mountains and the northernmost continental areas, increased precipitation associated with the generally positive North Atlantic Oscillation in the last few decades has often fallen as snow. Increased snow may delay the time of onset of the growing season, although increased temperature generally causes earlier spring phenophases. Autumn yellowing of birch leaves tends towards an earlier date at all sites. Due to both later birch greening and earlier yellowing at the Kandalaksha site, the growing season there has also become significantly shorter during the years observed. The sites showing the most advanced yellowing in the field throughout the study period fit well with areas showing an earlier end of the growing season from satellite images covering 1982-2002. The earlier yellowing is highly correlated with a trend at the sites in autumn for earlier decreasing air temperature over the study period, indicating that this environmental factor is important also for autumn phenophases.

Climatic factors governing plant phenological phases along a Norwegian fjord.

In the present project, the time of leaf budding and flowering, and partly also of fruit ripening, was studied over 3 years in different cultivated and native plants on a gradient along a western Norwegian fjord about 300 km long, from oceanic to relatively continental regions. In the plants investigated, flowering of the red currant was most strongly favoured by oceanic conditions in the outermost part of the fjord. On the other hand, flowering of the apple was earliest in the middle district, as were flowering of the common lilac and raspberry, while differences were small between the districts for flowering of the plum and pear. In the inner district, leaf budding of the apple was about 1.5 weeks earlier than flowering of the red currant, while these two phenophases, on average, occurred on the same day in the oceanic district. The time from 1 April to flowering was generally lengthened by increased precipitation in the pear, apple, lilac and raspberry, but not in the red currant and plum. By contrast, the period from leaf budding to flowering was significantly shortened in the plum by high precipitation. The present studies also indicated that leaf budding of the birch was favoured by the high minimum temperature and the relatively high precipitation normally found in the oceanic district. Partial correlations showed that increased precipitation delayed the flowering of both rowan and bird cherry trees; there was also a week effect on bud break in the same two species. The clear conclusion of the present study, therefore, is that various plant species react differently to various climatic factors ("phenological interception"), even in different phenophases within the same species. This means that the various species are best fitted to certain climatic regions and should preferably be planted there if other growth factors are satisfactory.

Phenological modifications in plants by various edaphic factors.

Various mechanical, chemical and physical soil analyses were carried out, in addition to weather observations, for 3 years at several sites along an oceanic-continental gradient in a fjord district in western Norway. All the environmental factors observed were correlated with the spring and a few late-season phenophases of many native and cultivated woody plants and some herbs by simple, linear correlations and by stepwise multiple and partial analyses. Different techniques were used to try and eliminate many intercorrelations between various environmental factors. As expected, air temperature measurements in nearly all analyses from these temperate region districts gave the most significant correlations with the phenology of the plants, the temperature during the night generally being the most important in mainly vegetative periods, e.g. to leaf bud break in spring, and the temperature during the day affecting the more generative phases, such as the period between leaf bud break and flowering. The other environmental factors, however, showed strong variation in correlation significance among the various species studied and also with different phenophases of the same species. Various hypotheses are put forward to explain such variation. Air humidity (including precipitation) and/or soil moisture (including intercorrelated parameters, e.g. soil grain size and bulk density) were relatively often found to be of importance. In the stepwise multiple analyses for leaf bud break of the birch (Betula pubescens), for instance, the amount of precipitation was the second factor to enter the analyses by a positive correlation with the developmental rate, after the most important factor, the night temperature. Positive correlations with a high clay content and bulk density in the soil indicated that high soil moisture is also favourable for early bud break in the birch. Other phenophases that seemed to be favoured by a good water supply were leaf bud break of the bird cherry (Prunus padus) and rowan (Sorbus aucuparia), and flowering of the hazel (Corylus avellana), common lilac (Syringa vulgaris), plum ('Victoria') and currant ('Red Dutch') and also, to some degree, the goat willow (Salix caprea). The amount of ions (P, K, Mg and Ca) often showed negative correlations with the developmental rate, particularly of earlier phenophases of both native and cultivated plants (except for the apple 'Gravenstein' and pear 'Moltke'), possibly, indicating that a high nutrient level delayed plant development. A similar explanation might be given for the observation that high pH in the soil often seemed to delay plant development (leaf bud break of Betula, Sorbus, Syringa and plum, and flowering of Corylus, bluebell (Campanula rotundifolia) and red currant). According to the analyses there seemed to be a tendency for plants that are particularly dependent on warm weather for leaf bud break, e.g. the ash (Fraxinus excelsior), and flowering, e.g. Prunus, pear, apple and, to some degree, the raspberry ('Preussen'), to be less dependent on other environmental factors for their development. For instance, if there were any effects of water for these plants, they were negative for moisture and soil factors intercorrelated with water.