Effects of long-term averaging of quantitative blood pressure traits on the detection of genetic associations.

Blood pressure (BP) is a heritable, quantitative trait with intraindividual variability and susceptibility to measurement error. Genetic studies of BP generally use single-visit measurements and thus cannot remove variability occurring over months or years. We leveraged the idea that averaging BP measured across time would improve phenotypic accuracy and thereby increase statistical power to detect genetic associations. We studied systolic BP (SBP), diastolic BP (DBP), mean arterial pressure (MAP), and pulse pressure (PP) averaged over multiple years in 46,629 individuals of European ancestry. We identified 39 trait-variant associations across 19 independent loci (p < 5 × 10(-8)); five associations (in four loci) uniquely identified by our LTA analyses included those of SBP and MAP at 2p23 (rs1275988, near KCNK3), DBP at 2q11.2 (rs7599598, in FER1L5), and PP at 6p21 (rs10948071, near CRIP3) and 7p13 (rs2949837, near IGFBP3). Replication analyses conducted in cohorts with single-visit BP data showed positive replication of associations and a nominal association (p < 0.05). We estimated a 20% gain in statistical power with long-term average (LTA) as compared to single-visit BP association studies. Using LTA analysis, we identified genetic loci influencing BP. LTA might be one way of increasing the power of genetic associations for continuous traits in extant samples for other phenotypes that are measured serially over time.

Gain-of-function lipoprotein lipase variant rs13702 modulates lipid traits through disruption of a microRNA-410 seed site.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified hundreds of genetic variants that are associated with lipid phenotypes. However, data supporting a functional role for these variants in the context of lipid metabolism are scarce. We investigated the association of the lipoprotein lipase (LPL) variant rs13702 with plasma lipids and explored its potential for functionality. The rs13702 minor allele had been predicted to disrupt a microRNA (miR) recognition element (MRE) seed site (MRESS) for the human microRNA-410 (miR-410). Furthermore, rs13702 is in linkage disequilibrium (LD) with several SNPs identified by GWAS. We performed a meta-analysis across ten cohorts of participants that showed a statistically significant association of rs13702 with triacylglycerols (TAG) (p = 3.18 × 10(-42)) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) (p = 1.35 × 10(-32)) with each copy of the minor allele associated with 0.060 mmol/l lower TAG and 0.041 mmol/l higher HDL-C. Our data showed that an LPL 3' UTR luciferase reporter carrying the rs13702 major T allele was reduced by 40% in response to a miR-410 mimic. We also evaluated the interaction between intake of dietary fatty acids and rs13702. Meta-analysis demonstrated a significant interaction between rs13702 and dietary polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) with respect to TAG concentrations (p = 0.00153), with the magnitude of the inverse association between dietary PUFA intake and TAG concentration showing -0.007 mmol/l greater reduction. Our results suggest that rs13702 induces the allele-specific regulation of LPL by miR-410 in humans. This work provides biological and potential clinical relevance for previously reported GWAS variants associated with plasma lipid phenotypes.

Biological, clinical and population relevance of 95 loci for blood lipids.

Plasma concentrations of total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides are among the most important risk factors for coronary artery disease (CAD) and are targets for therapeutic intervention. We screened the genome for common variants associated with plasma lipids in >100,000 individuals of European ancestry. Here we report 95 significantly associated loci (P < 5 x 10(-8)), with 59 showing genome-wide significant association with lipid traits for the first time. The newly reported associations include single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) near known lipid regulators (for example, CYP7A1, NPC1L1 and SCARB1) as well as in scores of loci not previously implicated in lipoprotein metabolism. The 95 loci contribute not only to normal variation in lipid traits but also to extreme lipid phenotypes and have an impact on lipid traits in three non-European populations (East Asians, South Asians and African Americans). Our results identify several novel loci associated with plasma lipids that are also associated with CAD. Finally, we validated three of the novel genes-GALNT2, PPP1R3B and TTC39B-with experiments in mouse models. Taken together, our findings provide the foundation to develop a broader biological understanding of lipoprotein metabolism and to identify new therapeutic opportunities for the prevention of CAD.

Heritabilities, proportions of heritabilities explained by GWAS findings, and implications of cross-phenotype effects on PR interval.

Electrocardiogram (ECG) measurements are a powerful tool for evaluating cardiac function and are widely used for the diagnosis and prediction of a variety of conditions, including myocardial infarction, cardiac arrhythmias, and sudden cardiac death. Recently, genome-wide association studies (GWASs) identified a large number of genes related to ECG parameter variability, specifically for the QT, QRS, and PR intervals. The aims of this study were to establish the heritability of ECG traits, including indices of left ventricular hypertrophy, and to directly assess the proportion of those heritabilities explained by GWAS variants. These analyses were conducted in a large, Dutch family-based cohort study, the Erasmus Rucphen Family study using variance component methods implemented in the SOLAR (Sequential Oligogenic Linkage Analysis Routines) software package. Heritability estimates ranged from 34% for QRS and Cornell voltage product to 49% for 12-lead sum. Trait-specific GWAS findings for each trait explained a fraction of their heritability (17% for QRS, 4% for QT, 2% for PR, 3% for Sokolow-Lyon index, and 4% for 12-lead sum). The inclusion of all ECG-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms explained an additional 6% of the heritability of PR. In conclusion, this study shows that, although GWAS explain a portion of ECG trait variability, a large amount of heritability remains to be explained. In addition, larger GWAS for PR are likely to detect loci already identified, particularly those observed for QRS and 12-lead sum.

Concordance for prognostic models with competing risks.

The concordance probability is a widely used measure to assess discrimination of prognostic models with binary and survival endpoints. We formally define the concordance probability for a prognostic model of the absolute risk of an event of interest in the presence of competing risks and relate it to recently proposed time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve measures. For right-censored data, we investigate inverse probability of censoring weighted (IPCW) estimates of a truncated concordance index based on a working model for the censoring distribution. We demonstrate consistency and asymptotic normality of the IPCW estimate if the working model is correctly specified and derive an explicit formula for the asymptotic variance under independent censoring. The small sample properties of the estimator are assessed in a simulation study also against misspecification of the working model. We further illustrate the methods by computing the concordance probability for a prognostic model of coronary heart disease (CHD) events in the presence of the competing risk of non-CHD death.

Arterial stiffness is associated with carotid intraplaque hemorrhage in the general population: the Rotterdam study.

OBJECTIVE: The relation between arterial stiffness and atherosclerosis, and specifically the influence of arterial stiffness on plaque composition, is largely unknown. In a population-based study, we investigated the association between arterial stiffness and the presence and composition of carotid atherosclerotic plaques. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Arterial stiffness was measured in 6527 participants (67.0±8.6 years) using aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV). Presence of carotid atherosclerotic plaques was assessed with ultrasound. Subsequently, 1059 subjects with carotid plaques (>2.5 mm) underwent MRI to assess plaque composition (presence of intraplaque hemorrhage, lipid, and calcification). Generalized estimation equation analyses adjusted for age, sex, mean arterial pressure, heart rate, carotid wall thickening, pulse pressure, and traditional cardiovascular risk factors were used to study the association between PWV and the presence and composition of carotid atherosclerotic plaques. In multivariable analysis, higher PWV was independently related to higher prevalence of carotid atherosclerotic plaque on ultrasound (odds ratio for highest quartile of PWV compared with lowest quartile, 1.24 [95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.51]). Furthermore, higher PWV was associated with intraplaque hemorrhage (age- and sex-adjusted odds ratio per SD increase in PWV, 1.20 [1.04-1.38] and calcification, 1.18 [1.03-1.35]), but not with lipid. After adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, PWV remained significantly associated with intraplaque hemorrhage (1.20 [1.01-1.43]). Additional adjustment for pulse pressure did not materially affect the effect estimate (1.19 [1.00-1.42]). CONCLUSIONS: Higher PWV is associated with presence and composition of carotid atherosclerotic plaques, in particular with intraplaque hemorrhage. These findings provide further clues for understanding the development of vulnerable atherosclerotic plaque.

Net reclassification improvement: computation, interpretation, and controversies: a literature review and clinician's guide.

The net reclassification improvement (NRI) is an increasingly popular measure for evaluating improvements in risk predictions. This article details a review of 67 publications in high-impact general clinical journals that considered the NRI. Incomplete reporting of NRI methods, incorrect calculation, and common misinterpretations were found. To aid improved applications of the NRI, the article elaborates on several aspects of the computation and interpretation in various settings. Limitations and controversies are discussed, including the effect of miscalibration of prediction models, the use of the continuous NRI and "clinical NRI," and the relation with decision analytic measures. A systematic approach toward presenting NRI analysis is proposed: Detail and motivate the methods used for computation of the NRI, use clinically meaningful risk cutoffs for the category-based NRI, report both NRI components, address issues of calibration, and do not interpret the overall NRI as a percentage of the study population reclassified. Promising NRI findings need to be followed with decision analytic or formal cost-effectiveness evaluations.

Genome-wide association study identifies novel loci associated with circulating phospho- and sphingolipid concentrations.

Phospho- and sphingolipids are crucial cellular and intracellular compounds. These lipids are required for active transport, a number of enzymatic processes, membrane formation, and cell signalling. Disruption of their metabolism leads to several diseases, with diverse neurological, psychiatric, and metabolic consequences. A large number of phospholipid and sphingolipid species can be detected and measured in human plasma. We conducted a meta-analysis of five European family-based genome-wide association studies (N = 4034) on plasma levels of 24 sphingomyelins (SPM), 9 ceramides (CER), 57 phosphatidylcholines (PC), 20 lysophosphatidylcholines (LPC), 27 phosphatidylethanolamines (PE), and 16 PE-based plasmalogens (PLPE), as well as their proportions in each major class. This effort yielded 25 genome-wide significant loci for phospholipids (smallest P-value = 9.88×10(-204)) and 10 loci for sphingolipids (smallest P-value = 3.10×10(-57)). After a correction for multiple comparisons (P-value<2.2×10(-9)), we observed four novel loci significantly associated with phospholipids (PAQR9, AGPAT1, PKD2L1, PDXDC1) and two with sphingolipids (PLD2 and APOE) explaining up to 3.1% of the variance. Further analysis of the top findings with respect to within class molar proportions uncovered three additional loci for phospholipids (PNLIPRP2, PCDH20, and ABDH3) suggesting their involvement in either fatty acid elongation/saturation processes or fatty acid specific turnover mechanisms. Among those, 14 loci (KCNH7, AGPAT1, PNLIPRP2, SYT9, FADS1-2-3, DLG2, APOA1, ELOVL2, CDK17, LIPC, PDXDC1, PLD2, LASS4, and APOE) mapped into the glycerophospholipid and 12 loci (ILKAP, ITGA9, AGPAT1, FADS1-2-3, APOA1, PCDH20, LIPC, PDXDC1, SGPP1, APOE, LASS4, and PLD2) to the sphingolipid pathways. In large meta-analyses, associations between FADS1-2-3 and carotid intima media thickness, AGPAT1 and type 2 diabetes, and APOA1 and coronary artery disease were observed. In conclusion, our study identified nine novel phospho- and sphingolipid loci, substantially increasing our knowledge of the genetic basis for these traits.

Association of renal function with vascular stiffness in older adults: the Rotterdam study.

BACKGROUND: arterial stiffening is a marker of vascular ageing and an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease. A potential mechanism linking cardiovascular disease to chronic kidney disease might be the change in arterial elasticity. We aim to determine the association between renal function and arterial stiffness in older subjects. DESIGN: cross-sectional study. SETTING: Rotterdam study, a population-based cohort study. SUBJECTS: we included 3,279 subjects from 1997 to 1999 with a mean age of 71.9 years. METHODS: estimation of glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was used to assess renal function. Aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV) and carotid distensibility coefficient were used as measures of arterial stiffness. RESULTS: each standard deviation increase in eGFR, adjusting for age and sex, was associated with 0.14 m/s lower PWV [95% confidence interval (CI): -0.23, -0.05]. Further adjustments for socio-demographic and cardiovascular risk factors did not change the association (ß: -0.16 m/s; 95% CI: -0.26, -0.06). There was a linear association between mean values of PWV and quartiles of glomerular filtration rate (P for trend = 0.006). There was no association between decreased renal function and carotid distensibility. There was no statistical difference in the strength of the association between renal function and PWV in subgroups of participants with and without cardiovascular risk factors. CONCLUSIONS: in this large population-based study of elderly subjects, our findings suggest that renal impairment is associated with aortic stiffness. This association is independent of cardiovascular risk factors.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and lipid core carotid artery plaques in the elderly: the Rotterdam Study.

RATIONALE: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is an independent risk factor for ischemic stroke and the risk increases with severity of airflow limitation. Even though vulnerable carotid artery plaque components, such as intraplaque hemorrhage and lipid core, place persons at high risk for ischemic events, the plaque composition in patients with COPD has never been explored. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the prevalence of carotid wall thickening, the different carotid artery plaque components, and their relationship with severity of airflow limitation in elderly patients with COPD. METHODS: This cross-sectional analysis was part of the Rotterdam Study, a prospective population-based cohort study performed in subjects aged 55 years and older. Diagnosis of COPD was confirmed by spirometry. Participants with carotid wall intima-media thickness greater than or equal to 2.5 mm on ultrasonography underwent high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging for characterization of carotid plaques. Data were analyzed using logistic regression. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: COPD cases (n = 253) had a twofold increased risk (odds ratio, 2.0; 95% confidence interval, 1.44-2.85; P < 0.0001) of presentation with carotid wall thickening on ultrasonography compared with control subjects with a normal lung function (n = 920). Moreover, the risk increased significantly with severity of airflow limitation. On magnetic resonance imaging, vulnerable lipid core plaques were more frequent in COPD cases than in control subjects (odds ratio, 2.1; 95% confidence interval, 1.25-3.69; P = 0.0058). CONCLUSIONS: Carotid artery wall thickening is more prevalent in patients with COPD than in control subjects. In elderly subjects with carotid wall thickening, COPD is an independent predictor for the presence of a lipid core, and therefore of vulnerable plaques.

Identification of nine novel loci associated with white blood cell subtypes in a Japanese population.

White blood cells (WBCs) mediate immune systems and consist of various subtypes with distinct roles. Elucidation of the mechanism that regulates the counts of the WBC subtypes would provide useful insights into both the etiology of the immune system and disease pathogenesis. In this study, we report results of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and a replication study for the counts of the 5 main WBC subtypes (neutrophils, lymphocytes, monocytes, basophils, and eosinophils) using 14,792 Japanese subjects enrolled in the BioBank Japan Project. We identified 12 significantly associated loci that satisfied the genome-wide significance threshold of P<5.0×10(-8), of which 9 loci were novel (the CDK6 locus for the neutrophil count; the ITGA4, MLZE, STXBP6 loci, and the MHC region for the monocyte count; the SLC45A3-NUCKS1, GATA2, NAALAD2, ERG loci for the basophil count). We further evaluated associations in the identified loci using 15,600 subjects from Caucasian populations. These WBC subtype-related loci demonstrated a variety of patterns of pleiotropic associations within the WBC subtypes, or with total WBC count, platelet count, or red blood cell-related traits (n = 30,454), which suggests unique and common functional roles of these loci in the processes of hematopoiesis. This study should contribute to the understanding of the genetic backgrounds of the WBC subtypes and hematological traits.

Identification of a sudden cardiac death susceptibility locus at 2q24.2 through genome-wide association in European ancestry individuals.

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) continues to be one of the leading causes of mortality worldwide, with an annual incidence estimated at 250,000-300,000 in the United States and with the vast majority occurring in the setting of coronary disease. We performed a genome-wide association meta-analysis in 1,283 SCD cases and >20,000 control individuals of European ancestry from 5 studies, with follow-up genotyping in up to 3,119 SCD cases and 11,146 controls from 11 European ancestry studies, and identify the BAZ2B locus as associated with SCD (P = 1.8×10(-10)). The risk allele, while ancestral, has a frequency of ~1.4%, suggesting strong negative selection and increases risk for SCD by 1.92-fold per allele (95% CI 1.57-2.34). We also tested the role of 49 SNPs previously implicated in modulating electrocardiographic traits (QRS, QT, and RR intervals). Consistent with epidemiological studies showing increased risk of SCD with prolonged QRS/QT intervals, the interval-prolonging alleles are in aggregate associated with increased risk for SCD (P = 0.006).

Normal values of the electrocardiogram for ages 16-90 years.

INTRODUCTION: To establish an up-to-date and comprehensive set of normal values for the clinically current measurements in the adult ECG, covering all ages for both sexes. METHODS: The study population included 13,354 individuals, taken from four population studies in The Netherlands, ranging in age from 16 to 90 years (55% men) and cardiologically healthy by commonly accepted criteria. Standard 12-lead ECGs were available for all participants. The ECGs were processed by a well-validated computer program. Normal limits were taken as the 2nd and 98th percentiles of the measurement distribution per age group. RESULTS: Our study corroborates many findings of previous studies, but also provides more differentiated results, in particular for the older age groups. Age trends were apparent for the QTc interval, QRS axis, and indices of left ventricular hypertrophy. Amplitudes in the left precordial leads showed a substantial increase in the older age groups for women, but not for men. Sex-dependent differences were apparent for most ECG parameters. All results are available on the Website www.normalecg.org, both in tabular and in graphical format. CONCLUSIONS: We determined age- and sex-dependent normal values of the adult ECG. Our study distinguishes itself from other studies by the large size of the study population, comprising both sexes, the broad range of ages, and the exhaustive set of measurements. Our results emphasize that most diagnostic ECG criteria should be age- and sex-specific.

Projections on the number of individuals with atrial fibrillation in the European Union, from 2000 to 2060.

AIMS: Since atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with increased risks of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular complications, estimations on the number of individuals with AF are relevant to healthcare planning. We aimed to project the number of individuals with AF in the Netherlands and in the European Union from 2000 to 2060. METHODS AND RESULTS: Age- and sex-specific AF prevalence estimates were obtained from the prospective community-based Rotterdam Study. Population projections for the Netherlands and the European Union were obtained from the European Union's statistics office. In the age stratum of 55-59 years, the prevalence of AF was 1.3% in men (95% CI: 0.4-3.6%) and 1.7% in women (95% CI: 0.7-4.0%). The prevalence of AF increased to 24.2% in men (95% CI: 18.5-30.7%), and 16.1% in women (95% CI: 13.1-19.4%), for those >85 years of age. This age- and sex-specific prevalence remained stable during the years of follow-up. Furthermore, we estimate that in the European Union, 8.8 million adults over 55 years had AF in 2010 (95% CI: 6.5-12.3 million). We project that this number will double by 2060 to 17.9 million (95% CI: 13.6-23.7 million) if the age- and sex-specific prevalence remains stable. CONCLUSION: We estimate that from 2010 to 2060, the number of adults 55 years and over with AF in the European Union will more than double. As AF is associated with significant morbidities and mortality, this increasing number of individuals with AF may have major public health implications.

Nucleotide excision DNA repair is associated with age-related vascular dysfunction.

BACKGROUND: Vascular dysfunction in atherosclerosis and diabetes mellitus, as observed in the aging population of developed societies, is associated with vascular DNA damage and cell senescence. We hypothesized that cumulative DNA damage during aging contributes to vascular dysfunction. METHODS AND RESULTS: In mice with genomic instability resulting from the defective nucleotide excision repair genes ERCC1 and XPD (Ercc1(d/-) and Xpd(TTD) mice), we explored age-dependent vascular function compared with that in wild-type mice. Ercc1(d/-) mice showed increased vascular cell senescence, accelerated development of vasodilator dysfunction, increased vascular stiffness, and elevated blood pressure at a very young age. The vasodilator dysfunction was due to decreased endothelial nitric oxide synthase levels and impaired smooth muscle cell function, which involved phosphodiesterase activity. Similar to Ercc1(d/-) mice, age-related endothelium-dependent vasodilator dysfunction in Xpd(TTD) animals was increased. To investigate the implications for human vascular disease, we explored associations between single-nucleotide polymorphisms of selected nucleotide excision repair genes and arterial stiffness within the AortaGen Consortium and found a significant association of a single-nucleotide polymorphism (rs2029298) in the putative promoter region of DDB2 gene with carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity. CONCLUSIONS: Mice with genomic instability recapitulate age-dependent vascular dysfunction as observed in animal models and in humans but with an accelerated progression compared with wild-type mice. In addition, we found associations between variations in human DNA repair genes and markers for vascular stiffness, which is associated with aging. Our study supports the concept that genomic instability contributes importantly to the development of cardiovascular disease.

Interleukin-6 receptor pathways in coronary heart disease: a collaborative meta-analysis of 82 studies.

BACKGROUND: Persistent inflammation has been proposed to contribute to various stages in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease. Interleukin-6 receptor (IL6R) signalling propagates downstream inflammation cascades. To assess whether this pathway is causally relevant to coronary heart disease, we studied a functional genetic variant known to affect IL6R signalling. METHODS: In a collaborative meta-analysis, we studied Asp358Ala (rs2228145) in IL6R in relation to a panel of conventional risk factors and inflammation biomarkers in 125,222 participants. We also compared the frequency of Asp358Ala in 51,441 patients with coronary heart disease and in 136,226 controls. To gain insight into possible mechanisms, we assessed Asp358Ala in relation to localised gene expression and to postlipopolysaccharide stimulation of interleukin 6. FINDINGS: The minor allele frequency of Asp358Ala was 39%. Asp358Ala was not associated with lipid concentrations, blood pressure, adiposity, dysglycaemia, or smoking (p value for association per minor allele ≥0·04 for each). By contrast, for every copy of 358Ala inherited, mean concentration of IL6R increased by 34·3% (95% CI 30·4-38·2) and of interleukin 6 by 14·6% (10·7-18·4), and mean concentration of C-reactive protein was reduced by 7·5% (5·9-9·1) and of fibrinogen by 1·0% (0·7-1·3). For every copy of 358Ala inherited, risk of coronary heart disease was reduced by 3·4% (1·8-5·0). Asp358Ala was not related to IL6R mRNA levels or interleukin-6 production in monocytes. INTERPRETATION: Large-scale human genetic and biomarker data are consistent with a causal association between IL6R-related pathways and coronary heart disease. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation; UK Medical Research Council; UK National Institute of Health Research, Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre; BUPA Foundation.

The relation of uric acid to brain atrophy and cognition: the Rotterdam Scan Study.

BACKGROUND: Uric acid has been associated with focal vascular brain disease. However, it is unknown whether uric acid also relates to global brain changes such as brain atrophy. We therefore studied the relation of uric acid to brain atrophy and whether this is accompanied by worse cognitive function. METHODS: In 814 persons of the population-based Rotterdam Study (mean age 62.0 years), we studied the relation of uric acid levels to brain tissue atrophy and cognition using linear regression models adjusted for age, sex and putative confounders. Brain atrophy was assessed using automated processing of magnetic resonance imaging. Cognition was assessed using a validated neuropsychological test battery and we computed compound scores of cognitive domains. RESULTS: Higher uric acid levels were associated with white matter atrophy [difference in Z-score of white matter volume per standard deviation increase in uric acid: -0.07 (95% CI: -0.12; -0.01)], but not with gray matter atrophy. This was particularly marked when comparing hyperuricemic to normouricemic persons [Z-score difference: -0.27 (-0.43; -0.11)]. Worse cognition was primarily found in persons with hyperuricemia [-0.28 (-0.48; -0.08)]. CONCLUSIONS: Hyperuricemia is related to white matter atrophy and worse cognition.

Coronary artery calcification in hemophilia A: no evidence for a protective effect of factor VIII deficiency on atherosclerosis.

OBJECTIVE: Ischemic heart disease mortality is lower in hemophilia patients than in the general male population. As coagulation plays a role in the inflammatory pathways involved in atherogenesis, we investigated whether the clotting factor deficiency protects hemophilia patients from developing atherosclerosis. METHODS AND RESULTS: Coronary artery calcification, measured with multidetector-row computed tomography, was compared between 42 men, ≥59 years, with severe or moderate hemophilia A, and 613 nonhemophilic men from the Rotterdam Study, a prospective population-based study. None of the study subjects were HIV infected or had a history of cardiovascular disease. Coronary artery calcification was quantified by calculating the Agatston score and calcification mass. Data were analyzed using linear regression. Mean difference (ß) of the natural log-transformed Agatston score between men with and without hemophilia was 0.141 (95% CI -0.602 to 0.885, P=0.709). Results did not change after adjustment for age, body mass index, hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, and use of antidiabetic medication (ß=0.525, 95% CI -0.202 to 1.252, P=0.157). Comparable results were found for calcification mass. CONCLUSION: The extent of coronary artery atherosclerosis is comparable between elderly men with and without hemophilia. Results from this study underline the importance of screening and treating atherosclerosis risk factors in hemophilia patients.

The association between physical activity and dementia in an elderly population: the Rotterdam Study.

Several studies have associated physical activity with the risk of dementia, but mostly did so during short follow-up. It remains unclear whether physical activity also affects dementia during longer follow-up. We examined the association between physical activity and risk of dementia during a follow-up period up to 14 years. From 1997 to 1999, physical activity was assessed using a validated questionnaire in 4,406 elderly persons (age range 61-97) from the prospective, population-based Rotterdam Study. Follow-up for dementia was complete until January 1, 2011. We used Cox proportional hazards models to assess the association between physical activity and incident dementia. Next, we stratified follow-up time using a cut-off of 4 years. We separately investigated dementia due to Alzheimer disease. During 38,631 person-years, 583 participants developed dementia. When adjusting for age and sex, we found a borderline significant association between higher physical activity and lower risk of dementia (HR 0.95; 95% CI 0.87-1.04). This association was confined to follow-up up to 4 years (HR 0.82; 95% CI 0.71-0.95), and not to follow-up of at least 4 years (HR 1.04; 95% CI 0.93-1.16). Additional adjustments only slightly attenuated the associations. A similar pattern was present for Alzheimer disease. We found a higher level of physical activity to be associated with a lower risk of dementia. This association was confined to follow-up for up to 4 years and not to longer follow-up, suggesting either a role for reverse causality or only a short term effect of late-life physical activity in an elderly population.

Development and validation of a coronary risk prediction model for older U.S. and European persons in the Cardiovascular Health Study and the Rotterdam Study.

BACKGROUND: Risk scores for prediction of coronary heart disease (CHD) in older adults are needed. OBJECTIVE: To develop a sex-specific CHD risk prediction model for older adults that accounts for competing risks for death. DESIGN: 2 observational cohort studies, using data from 4946 participants in the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS) and 4303 participants in the Rotterdam Study (RS). SETTING: Community settings in the United States (CHS) and Rotterdam, the Netherlands (RS). PARTICIPANTS: Persons aged 65 years or older who were free of cardiovascular disease. MEASUREMENTS: A composite of nonfatal myocardial infarction and coronary death. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 16.5 and 14.9 years, 1166 CHS and 698 RS participants had CHD events, respectively. Deaths from noncoronary causes largely exceeded the number of CHD events, complicating accurate CHD risk predictions. The prediction model had moderate ability to discriminate between events and nonevents (c-statistic, 0.63 in both U.S. and European men and 0.67 and 0.68 in U.S. and European women). The model was well-calibrated; predicted risks were in good agreement with observed risks. Compared with the Framingham point scores, the prediction model classified elderly U.S. persons into higher risk categories but elderly European persons into lower risk categories. Differences in classification accuracy were not consistent and depended on cohort and sex. Adding newer cardiovascular risk markers to the model did not substantially improve performance. LIMITATION: The model may be less applicable in nonwhite populations, and the comparison Framingham model was not designed for adults older than 79 years. CONCLUSION: A CHD risk prediction model that accounts for deaths from noncoronary causes among older adults provided well-calibrated risk estimates but was not substantially more accurate than Framingham point scores. Moreover, adding newer risk markers did not improve accuracy. These findings emphasize the difficulties of predicting CHD risk in elderly persons and the need to improve these predictions. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke; The Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research; and the Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development.