RESUMO
Successive waves of COVID-19 transmission have led to exponential increases in new infections globally. In this study, we have applied a decision-making tool to assess the risk of continuing transmission to inform decisions on tailored public health and social measures (PHSM) using data on cases and deaths reported by Member States to the WHO Regional Office for Africa as of 31 December 2020. Transmission classification and health system capacity were used to assess the risk level of each country to guide implementation and adjustments to PHSM. Two countries out of 46 assessed met the criteria for sporadic transmission, one for clusters of cases, and 43 (93.5%) for community transmission (CT) including three with uncontrolled disease incidence (Eswatini, Namibia and South Africa). Health system response's capacities were assessed as adequate in two countries (4.3%), moderate in 13 countries (28.3%) and limited in 31 countries (64.4%). The risk level, calculated as a combination of transmission classification and health system response's capacities, was assessed at level 0 in one country (2.1%), level 1 in two countries (4.3%), level 2 in 11 countries (23.9%) and level 3 in 32 (69.6%) countries. The scale of severity ranged from 0 to 4, with 0 the lowest. CT coupled with limited response capacity resulted in a level 3 risk assessment in most countries. Countries at level 3 should be considered as priority focus for additional assistance, in order to prevent the risk rising to level 4, which may necessitate enforcing hard and costly lockdown measures. The large number of countries at level 3 indicates the need for an effective risk management system to be used as a basis for adjusting PHSM at national and sub-national levels.
Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , Tomada de Decisões , SARS-CoV-2 , Organização Mundial da Saúde , África/epidemiologia , Atenção à Saúde , Humanos , Administração em Saúde Pública , Medição de RiscoRESUMO
This study analysed the reported incidence of COVID-19 and associated epidemiological and socio-economic factors in the WHO African region. Data from COVID-19 confirmed cases and SARS-CoV-2 tests reported to the WHO by Member States between 25 February and 31 December 2020 and publicly available health and socio-economic data were analysed using univariate and multivariate binomial regression models. The overall cumulative incidence was 1846 cases per million population. Cape Verde (21 350 per million), South Africa (18 060 per million), Namibia (9840 per million), Eswatini (8151 per million) and Botswana (6044 per million) recorded the highest cumulative incidence, while Benin (260 per million), Democratic Republic of Congo (203 per million), Niger (141 cases per million), Chad (133 per million) and Burundi (62 per million) recorded the lowest. Increasing percentage of urban population (ß = -0.011, P = 0.04) was associated with low cumulative incidence, while increasing number of cumulative SARS-CoV-2 tests performed per 10 000 population (ß = 0.0006, P = 0.006) and the proportion of population aged 15-64 years (adjusted ß = 0.174, P < 0.0001) were associated with high COVID-19 cumulative incidence. With limited testing capacities and overwhelmed health systems, these findings highlight the need for countries to increase and decentralise testing capacities and adjust testing strategies to target most at-risk populations.
Assuntos
COVID-19/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2 , Organização Mundial da Saúde , Adolescente , Adulto , África/epidemiologia , Humanos , Incidência , Modelos Logísticos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Análise Multivariada , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de Tempo , Adulto JovemRESUMO
The World Health Organization African region recorded its first laboratory-confirmed coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) cases on 25 February 2020. Two months later, all the 47 countries of the region were affected. The first anniversary of the pandemic occurred in a changed context with the emergence of new variants of concern (VOC) and growing COVID-19 fatigue. This study describes the epidemiological trajectory of COVID-19 in the region, summarises public health and social measures (PHSM) implemented and discusses their impact on the pandemic trajectory. As of 24 February 2021, the African region accounted for 2.5% of cases and 2.9% of deaths reported globally. Of the 13 countries that submitted detailed line listing of cases, the proportion of cases with at least one co-morbid condition was estimated at 3.3% of all cases. Hypertension, diabetes and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection were the most common comorbid conditions, accounting for 11.1%, 7.1% and 5.0% of cases with comorbidities, respectively. Overall, the case fatality ratio (CFR) in patients with comorbid conditions was higher than in patients without comorbid conditions: 5.5% vs. 1.0% (P < 0.0001). Countries started to implement lockdown measures in early March 2020. This contributed to slow the spread of the pandemic at the early stage while the gradual ease of lockdowns from 20 April 2020 resulted in an upsurge. The second wave of the pandemic, which started in November 2020, coincided with the emergence of the new variants of concern. Only 0.08% of the population from six countries received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. It is critical to not only learn from the past 12 months to improve the effectiveness of the current response but also to start preparing the health systems for subsequent waves of the current pandemic and future pandemics.
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COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/mortalidade , SARS-CoV-2 , Organização Mundial da Saúde/organização & administração , África/epidemiologia , Comorbidade , Humanos , Fatores de Risco , Fatores de TempoRESUMO
As of 03 January 2021, the WHO African region is the least affected by the coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, accounting for only 2.4% of cases and deaths reported globally. However, concerns abound about whether the number of cases and deaths reported from the region reflect the true burden of the disease and how the monitoring of the pandemic trajectory can inform response measures.We retrospectively estimated four key epidemiological parameters (the total number of cases, the number of missed cases, the detection rate and the cumulative incidence) using the COVID-19 prevalence calculator tool developed by Resolve to Save Lives. We used cumulative cases and deaths reported during the period 25 February to 31 December 2020 for each WHO Member State in the region as well as population data to estimate the four parameters of interest. The estimated number of confirmed cases in 42 countries out of 47 of the WHO African region included in this study was 13 947 631 [95% confidence interval (CI): 13 334 620-14 635 502] against 1 889 512 cases reported, representing 13.5% of overall detection rate (range: 4.2% in Chad, 43.9% in Guinea). The cumulative incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) was estimated at 1.38% (95% CI: 1.31%-1.44%), with South Africa the highest [14.5% (95% CI: 13.9%-15.2%)] and Mauritius [0.1% (95% CI: 0.099%-0.11%)] the lowest. The low detection rate found in most countries of the WHO African region suggests the need to strengthen SARS-CoV-2 testing capacities and adjusting testing strategies.
Assuntos
COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/epidemiologia , SARS-CoV-2 , Organização Mundial da Saúde/organização & administração , África/epidemiologia , Idoso , COVID-19/mortalidade , COVID-19/virologia , Humanos , Incidência , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Estudos Retrospectivos , Fatores de TempoRESUMO
Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) is an essential component of public health emergency response. In the WHO African region (WHO AFRO), over 100 events are detected and responded to annually. Here we discuss the development of the M&E for COVID-19 that established a set of regional and country indicators for tracking the COVID-19 pandemic and response measures. An interdisciplinary task force used the 11 pillars of strategic preparedness and response to define a set of inputs, outputs, outcomes and impact indicators that were used to closely monitor and evaluate progress in the evolving COVID-19 response, with each pillar tailored to specific country needs. M&E data were submitted electronically and informed country profiles, detailed epidemiological reports, and situation reports. Further, 10 selected key performance indicators were tracked to monitor country progress through a bi-weekly progress scoring tool used to identify priority countries in need of additional support from WHO AFRO. Investment in M&E of health emergencies should be an integral part of efforts to strengthen national, regional and global capacities for early detection and response to threats to public health security. The development of an adaptable M&E framework for health emergencies must draw from the lessons learned throughout the COVID-19 response.
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COVID-19/prevenção & controle , Organização Mundial da Saúde/organização & administração , África/epidemiologia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Emergências , Humanos , Vigilância em Saúde Pública , Regionalização da Saúde , SARS-CoV-2RESUMO
Epidemic intelligence activities are undertaken by the WHO Regional Office for Africa to support member states in early detection and response to outbreaks to prevent the international spread of diseases. We reviewed epidemic intelligence activities conducted by the organisation from 2017 to 2020, processes used, key results and how lessons learned can be used to strengthen preparedness, early detection and rapid response to outbreaks that may constitute a public health event of international concern. A total of 415 outbreaks were detected and notified to WHO, using both indicator-based and event-based surveillance. Media monitoring contributed to the initial detection of a quarter of all events reported. The most frequent outbreaks detected were vaccine-preventable diseases, followed by food-and-water-borne diseases, vector-borne diseases and viral haemorrhagic fevers. Rapid risk assessments generated evidence and provided the basis for WHO to trigger operational processes to provide rapid support to member states to respond to outbreaks with a potential for international spread. This is crucial in assisting member states in their obligations under the International Health Regulations (IHR) (2005). Member states in the region require scaled-up support, particularly in preventing recurrent outbreaks of infectious diseases and enhancing their event-based surveillance capacities with automated tools and processes.
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Epidemias/prevenção & controle , Vigilância em Saúde Pública/métodos , Organização Mundial da Saúde/organização & administração , África/epidemiologia , Controle de Doenças Transmissíveis , Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Surtos de Doenças/estatística & dados numéricos , Saúde Global , Humanos , Medição de RiscoRESUMO
Experience gained from responding to major outbreaks may have influenced the early coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) pandemic response in several countries across Africa. We retrospectively assessed whether Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, the three West African countries at the epicentre of the 2014-2016 Ebola virus disease outbreak, leveraged the lessons learned in responding to COVID-19 following the World Health Organization's (WHO) declaration of a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). We found relatively lower incidence rates across the three countries compared to many parts of the globe. Time to case reporting and laboratory confirmation also varied, with Guinea and Liberia reporting significant delays compared to Sierra Leone. Most of the selected readiness measures were instituted before confirmation of the first case and response measures were initiated rapidly after the outbreak confirmation. We conclude that the rapid readiness and response measures instituted by the three countries can be attributed to their lessons learned from the devastating Ebola outbreak, although persistent health systems weaknesses and the unique nature of COVID-19 continue to challenge control efforts.
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COVID-19/epidemiologia , Ebolavirus , Doença pelo Vírus Ebola/epidemiologia , África Ocidental/epidemiologia , Atenção à Saúde , Humanos , Incidência , SARS-CoV-2 , Fatores de TempoRESUMO
OBJECTIVES: NTDs historically receive less attention than other diseases in the same regions. Recent gap analyses revealed notable shortcomings despite NTD elimination progress. This systematic scoping review was conducted to understand NTD control, elimination, and eradication efforts in the WHO African region over the last 30 years. METHODS: Peer-reviewed publications from PubMed, Web of Science, and Cochrane databases related to NTD control, elimination, and eradication in the WHO African Region from 1990 to 2022 were reviewed. Included articles were categorized based on NTD; study location, type, and period; and topic areas. Technical and guidance documents from WHO, UN, partner, and academic/research institutions were reviewed. Country-specific multi-year NTD master plans were documented. RESULTS: Four hundred eighty peer-reviewed articles, six Cochrane reviews, and 134 technical reports were included. MDA and non-interventional/survey-related studies were common topics. Lymphatic filariasis, trachoma, schistosomiasis, and onchocerciasis were the most frequently studied NTDs. Tanzania, Ethiopia, and Nigeria were the most represented countries; multi-country studies were limited. CONCLUSION: The review highlights progress made in NTD control, elimination, and eradication efforts in the WHO African Region and can inform national/regional strategies. Disease and geographical disparities were evident, warranting focus and research in certain countries. A standardized approach to NTD control programs is needed for sustained progress. FUNDING: There was no funding source for this study.
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Erradicação de Doenças , Doenças Negligenciadas , Medicina Tropical , Organização Mundial da Saúde , Humanos , Doenças Negligenciadas/prevenção & controle , Doenças Negligenciadas/epidemiologia , África/epidemiologia , Esquistossomose/prevenção & controle , Esquistossomose/epidemiologia , Tracoma/prevenção & controle , Tracoma/epidemiologia , Oncocercose/prevenção & controle , Oncocercose/epidemiologiaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: The WHO African region frequently experiences outbreaks and epidemics of infectious diseases often exacerbated by weak health systems and infrastructure, late detection, and ineffective outbreak response. To address this, the WHO Regional Office for Africa developed and began implementing the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response strategy in 1998. OBJECTIVES: This systematic review aims to document the identified successes and challenges surrounding the implementation of IDSR in the region available in published literature to highlight areas for prioritization, further research, and to inform further strengthening of IDSR implementation. METHODS: A systematic review of peer-reviewed literature published in English and French from 1 July 2012 to 13 November 2019 was conducted using PubMed and Web of Science. Included articles focused on the WHO African region and discussed the use of IDSR strategies and implementation, assessment of IDSR strategies, or surveillance of diseases covered in the IDSR framework. Data were analyzed descriptively using Microsoft Excel and Tableau Desktop 2019. RESULTS: The number of peer-reviewed articles discussing IDSR remained low, with 47 included articles focused on 17 countries and regional level systems. Most commonly discussed topics were data reporting (n = 39) and challenges with IDSR implementation (n = 38). Barriers to effective implementation were identified across all IDSR core and support functions assessed in this review: priority disease detection; data reporting, management, and analysis; information dissemination; laboratory functionality; and staff training. Successful implementation was noted where existing surveillance systems and infrastructure were utilized and streamlined with efforts to increase access to healthcare. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS OF FINDINGS: These findings highlighted areas where IDSR is performing well and where implementation remains weak. While challenges related to IDSR implementation since the first edition of the technical guidelines were released are not novel, adequately addressing them requires sustained investments in stronger national public health capabilities, infrastructure, and surveillance processes.
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Doenças Transmissíveis/epidemiologia , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Vigilância em Saúde Pública , África/epidemiologia , HumanosRESUMO
The genomic sequences of two enterovirus C109 isolates (EV-C109 USA/FL/2016-21003 and EV-C109 USA/FL/2016-21002) were obtained during two separate case investigations of respiratory disease in two children. This marks the first description of EV-C109 genomes in the United States.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Contact tracing is one of the key response activities necessary for halting Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) transmission. Key elements of contact tracing include identification of persons who have been in contact with confirmed EVD cases and careful monitoring for EVD symptoms, but the details of implementation likely influence their effectiveness. In November 2015, several months after a major Ebola outbreak was controlled in Liberia, three members of a family were confirmed positive for EVD in the Duport Road area of Monrovia. The cluster provided an opportunity to implement and evaluate modified approaches to contact tracing. METHODS: The approaches employed for improved contact tracing included classification and risk-based management of identified contacts (including facility based isolation of some high risk contacts, provision of support to persons being monitored, and school-based surveillance for some persons with potential exposure but not listed as contacts), use of phone records to help locate missing contacts, and modifications to data management tools. We recorded details about the implementation of these approaches, report the overall outcomes of the contact tracing efforts and the challenges encountered, and provide recommendations for management of future outbreaks. RESULTS: 165 contacts were identified (with over 150 identified within 48 hours of confirmation of the EVD cases) and all initially missing contacts were located. Contacts were closely monitored and promptly tested if symptomatic; no contacts developed disease. Encountered challenges related to knowledge gaps among contact tracing staff, data management, and coordination of contact tracing activities with efforts to offer Ebola vaccine. CONCLUSIONS: The Duport Road EVD cluster was promptly controlled. Missing contacts were effectively identified, and identified contacts were effectively monitored and rapidly tested. There is a persistent risk of EVD reemergence in Liberia; the experience controlling each cluster can help inform future Ebola control efforts in Liberia and elsewhere.
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Busca de Comunicante/métodos , Surtos de Doenças/prevenção & controle , Doença pelo Vírus Ebola/epidemiologia , Adolescente , Adulto , Idoso , Criança , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Libéria/epidemiologia , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Vacinação , Adulto JovemRESUMO
BACKGROUND: Antibiotic resistance is increasing in many community settings. The purpose of this study was to determine the proportion of antibiotic resistant community-associated bloodstream infections (CA-BSIs) present on hospital admissions to identify risk factors for acquiring resistant versus susceptible CA-BSIs and to describe the incidence of concurrent infections with CA-BSIs. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients discharged from one community, one pediatric, and two tertiary/quaternary care hospitals within an academically affiliated network in the borough of Manhattan in New York, NY, from 2006 to 2008. The CA-BSIs present at hospital admission were defined as BSIs occurring within the first 48h of hospitalization. Infections and patient characteristics were identified using data available from patients' electronic medical records and discharge records. RESULTS: In total, 1677 CA-BSIs were identified. Staphylococcus aureus had the largest proportion of resistance (41.2%), followed by enterococcal species (24.3%), Pseudomonas aeruginosa (20.2%), Streptococcus pneumoniae (16.6%), Acinetobacter baumannii (10.0%), and Klebsiella pneumoniae (9.9%). Significant predictors of resistance were prior residence in a skilled nursing facility (OR, 2.55; 95% CI, 1.39-4.70), advanced age (1.01; 1.002-1.02), presence of malignancy (0.58; 0.37-0.91), prior hospitalization (1.62; 1.17-2.23), a weighted Charlson score (1.09; 1.02-1.17) for S. aureus, presence of malignancy (1.82; 1.004-3.30), prior hospitalizations (2.03; 1.12-3.38) for enterococcal species, and younger age for S. pneumoniae (p=0.02). Urinary tract infections were the most common concurrent infection (n=45/87, 51.7%). CONCLUSION: Over 27% of the CA-BSIs present on admission were antibiotic resistant. Understanding the prevalence and risk factors for CA-BSIs may help improve empiric antibiotic therapy and outcomes for patients with community-onset infections.