Venous and arterial thrombosis in patients with VEXAS syndrome.

ABSTRACT: VEXAS (vacuoles, E1 enzyme, X-linked, autoinflammatory, somatic) syndrome, caused by somatic mutations in UBA1, is an autoinflammatory disorder with diverse systemic manifestations. Thrombosis is a prominent clinical feature of VEXAS syndrome. The risk factors and frequency of thrombosis in VEXAS syndrome are not well described, due to the disease's recent discovery and the paucity of large databases. We evaluated 119 patients with VEXAS syndrome for venous and arterial thrombosis and correlated their presence with clinical outcomes and survival. Thrombosis occurred in 49% of patients, mostly venous thromboembolism (VTE; 41%). Almost two-thirds of VTEs were unprovoked, 41% were recurrent, and 20% occurred despite anticoagulation. The cumulative incidence of VTE was 17% at 1 year from symptom onset and 40% by 5 years. Cardiac and pulmonary inflammatory manifestations were associated with time to VTE. M41L was positively associated specifically with pulmonary embolism by univariate (odds ratio [OR]: 4.58, confidence interval [CI] 1.28-16.21, P = .02) and multivariate (OR: 16.94, CI 1.99-144.3, P = .01) logistic regression. The cumulative incidence of arterial thrombosis was 6% at 1 year and 11% at 5 years. The overall survival of the entire patient cohort at median follow-up time of 4.8 years was 88%, and there was no difference in survival between patients with or without thrombosis (P = .8). Patients with VEXAS syndrome are at high risk of VTE; thromboprophylaxis should administered be in high-risk settings unless strongly contraindicated.

Differential diagnosis of bone marrow failure syndromes guided by machine learning.

The choice to postpone treatment while awaiting genetic testing can result in significant delay in definitive therapies in patients with severe pancytopenia. Conversely, the misdiagnosis of inherited bone marrow failure (BMF) can expose patients to ineffectual and expensive therapies, toxic transplant conditioning regimens, and inappropriate use of an affected family member as a stem cell donor. To predict the likelihood of patients having acquired or inherited BMF, we developed a 2-step data-driven machine-learning model using 25 clinical and laboratory variables typically recorded at the initial clinical encounter. For model development, patients were labeled as having acquired or inherited BMF depending on their genomic data. Data sets were unbiasedly clustered, and an ensemble model was trained with cases from the largest cluster of a training cohort (n = 359) and validated with an independent cohort (n = 127). Cluster A, the largest group, was mostly immune or inherited aplastic anemia, whereas cluster B comprised underrepresented BMF phenotypes and was not included in the next step of data modeling because of a small sample size. The ensemble cluster A-specific model was accurate (89%) to predict BMF etiology, correctly predicting inherited and likely immune BMF in 79% and 92% of cases, respectively. Our model represents a practical guide for BMF diagnosis and highlights the importance of clinical and laboratory variables in the initial evaluation, particularly telomere length. Our tool can be potentially used by general hematologists and health care providers not specialized in BMF, and in under-resourced centers, to prioritize patients for genetic testing or for expeditious treatment.

Spectrum of clonal hematopoiesis in VEXAS syndrome.

Vacuoles, E1 enzyme, X-linked, autoinflammatory, somatic (VEXAS) syndrome is caused by somatic mutations in UBA1 (UBA1mut) and characterized by heterogenous systemic autoinflammation and progressive hematologic manifestations, meeting criteria for myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) and plasma cell dyscrasias. The landscape of myeloid-related gene mutations leading to typical clonal hematopoiesis (CH) in these patients is unknown. Retrospectively, we screened 80 patients with VEXAS for CH in their peripheral blood (PB) and correlated the findings with clinical outcomes in 77 of them. UBA1mut were most common at hot spot p.M41 (median variant allele frequency [VAF] = 75%). Typical CH mutations cooccurred with UBA1mut in 60% of patients, mostly in DNMT3A and TET2, and were not associated with inflammatory or hematologic manifestations. In prospective single-cell proteogenomic sequencing (scDNA), UBA1mut was the dominant clone, present mostly in branched clonal trajectories. Based on integrated bulk and scDNA analyses, clonality in VEXAS followed 2 major patterns: with either typical CH preceding UBA1mut selection in a clone (pattern 1) or occurring as an UBA1mut subclone or in independent clones (pattern 2). VAF in the PB differed markedly between DNMT3A and TET2 clones (median VAF of 25% vs 1%). DNMT3A and TET2 clones associated with hierarchies representing patterns 1 and 2, respectively. Overall survival for all patients was 60% at 10 years. Transfusion-dependent anemia, moderate thrombocytopenia, and typical CH mutations, each correlated with poor outcome. In VEXAS, UBA1mut cells are the primary cause of systemic inflammation and marrow failure, being a new molecularly defined somatic entity associated with MDS. VEXAS-associated MDS is distinct from classical MDS in its presentation and clinical course.

Safety and efficacy of immunosuppressive therapy for elderly patients with severe aplastic anaemia.

Uncertainty remains regarding the safety and tolerability of immunosuppressive therapy (IST) with anti-thymocyte globulin (ATG) and cyclosporine (CSA) in older patients. We retrospectively analysed two prospective clinical trials of IST in treatment-naïve severe aplastic anaemia (SAA) to assess safety in older compared to younger patients. Patients ≥18 years of age who had received IST with ATG and CSA +/- eltrombopag (EPAG) were included. Pre-treatment baseline characteristics and co-morbidities were assessed as predictors of therapy-related complications in younger (<60 years) versus older (≥60 years) patients. Out of 245 eligible patients, 54 were older and 191 were younger. Older patients had a similar frequency of SAEs, ICU admissions and hospital length of stay compared to younger patients. Older patients had a higher frequency of cardiac events related to IST, but none resulted in death. Older patients had worse long-term overall survival, and more relapse and clonal evolution post-IST. However, older patients who responded to IST had a similar survival at a median follow-up to younger patients. Disease-related factors and limited therapeutic options in refractory disease likely contribute to poorer outcomes in older patients, not complications of upfront IST. Therefore, IST should be considered first-line therapy for most older SAA patients.

Treatment of refractory/relapsed Diamond-Blackfan anaemia with eltrombopag.

Diamond-Blackfan anaemia (DBA) is a rare, inherited bone marrow failure syndrome with a ribosomal defect causing slowed globin chain production with normal haem synthesis, causing an overabundance of reactive iron/haem and erythroid-specific cellular toxicity. Eltrombopag, a non-peptide thrombopoietin receptor agonist, is a potent intracellular iron chelator and induced a robust durable response in an RPS19-mutated DBA patient on another trial. We hypothesized eltrombopag would improve RBC production in DBA patients. We conducted a single-centre, single-arm pilot study (NCT04269889) assessing safety and erythroid response of 6 months of daily, fixed-dose eltrombopag for DBA patients. Fifteen transfusion-dependent (every 3-5 weeks) patients (median age 18 [range 2-56]) were treated. One responder had sustained haemoglobin improvement and >50% reduction in RBC transfusion frequency. Of note, 7/15 (41%) patients required dose reductions or sustained discontinuation of eltrombopag due to asymptomatic thrombocytosis. Despite the low response rate, eltrombopag has now improved erythropoiesis in several patients with DBA with a favourable safety profile. Dosing restrictions due to thrombocytosis may cause insufficient iron chelation to decrease haem production and improve anaemia in most patients. Future work will focus on erythropoiesis dynamics in patients and use of haem synthesis inhibitors without an impact on other haematopoietic lineages.

Long-term outcomes in patients with severe aplastic anemia treated with immunosuppression and eltrombopag: a phase 2 study.

Patients with severe aplastic anemia (SAA) are either treated with bone marrow transplant (BMT) or immunosuppression (IST) depending on their age, comorbidities, and available donors. In 2017, our phase 2 trial reported improved hematologic responses with the addition of eltrombopag (EPAG) to standard IST for SAA when compared with a historical cohort treated with IST alone. However, the rates and characteristics of long-term complications, relapse, and clonal evolution, previously described in patients treated with IST alone, are not yet known with this new regimen, IST and EPAG. Patients were accrued from 2012 to 2020, with a total of 178 subjects included in this secondary endpoint analysis. With double the sample size and a much longer median follow-up (4 years) since the original publication in 2017, we report a cumulative relapse rate of 39% in responding patients who received cyclosporine (CSA) maintenance and clonal evolution of 15% in all treated patients at 4 years. Relapse occurred at distinct timepoints: after CSA dose reduction and EPAG discontinuation at 6 months, and after 2 years when CSA was discontinued. Most relapsed patients were retreated with therapeutic doses of CSA +/- EPAG, and two-thirds responded. Clonal evolution to a myeloid malignancy or chromosome 7 abnormality (high-risk) was noted in 5.7% of patients and conferred a poorer overall survival. Neither relapse nor high-risk evolution occurred at a higher rate than was observed in a historical comparator cohort, but the median time to both events was earlier in IST and EPAG treated patients. This trial was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT01623167.

Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis: Relationship between Left Ventricular Shape at Cardiac MRI and 10-year Outcomes.

Background Left ventricular (LV) subclinical remodeling is associated with adverse outcomes and indicates mechanisms of disease development. Standard metrics such as LV mass and volumes may not capture the full range of remodeling. Purpose To quantify the relationship between LV three-dimensional shape at MRI and incident cardiovascular events over 10 years. Materials and Methods In this retrospective study, 5098 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis who were free of clinical cardiovascular disease underwent cardiac MRI from 2000 to 2002. LV shape models were automatically generated using a machine learning workflow. Event-specific remodeling signatures were computed using partial least squares regression, and random survival forests were used to determine which features were most associated with incident heart failure (HF), coronary heart disease (CHD), and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events over a 10-year follow-up period. The discrimination improvement of adding LV shape to traditional cardiovascular risk factors, coronary artery calcium scores, and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide levels was assessed using the index of prediction accuracy and time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to illustrate the ability of remodeling signatures to predict the end points. Results Overall, 4618 participants had sufficient three-dimensional MRI information to generate patient-specific LV models (mean age, 60.6 years ± 9.9 [SD]; 2540 women). Among these participants, 147 had HF, 317 had CHD, and 455 had CVD events. The addition of LV remodeling signatures to traditional cardiovascular risk factors improved the mean AUC for 10-year survival prediction and achieved better performance than LV mass and volumes; HF (AUC, 0.83 ± 0.01 and 0.81 ± 0.01, respectively; P < .05), CHD (AUC, 0.77 ± 0.01 and 0.75 ± 0.01, respectively; P < .05), and CVD (AUC, 0.78 ± 0.0 and 0.76 ± 0.0, respectively; P < .05). Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated that participants with high-risk HF remodeling signatures had a 10-year survival rate of 56% compared with 95% for those with low-risk scores. Conclusion Left ventricular event-specific remodeling signatures were more predictive of heart failure, coronary heart disease, and cardiovascular disease events over 10 years than standard mass and volume measures and enable an automatic personalized medicine approach to tracking remodeling. © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

HLA associations, somatic loss of HLA expression, and clinical outcomes in immune aplastic anemia.

Immune aplastic anemia (AA) features somatic loss of HLA class I allele expression on bone marrow cells, consistent with a mechanism of escape from T-cell-mediated destruction of hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells. The clinical significance of HLA abnormalities has not been well characterized. We examined the somatic loss of HLA class I alleles and correlated HLA loss and mutation-associated HLA genotypes with clinical presentation and outcomes after immunosuppressive therapy in 544 AA patients. HLA class I allele loss was detected in 92 (22%) of the 412 patients tested, in whom there were 393 somatic HLA gene mutations and 40 instances of loss of heterozygosity. Most frequently affected was HLA-B*14:02, followed by HLA-A*02:01, HLA-B*40:02, HLA-B*08:01, and HLA-B*07:02. HLA-B*14:02, HLA-B*40:02, and HLA-B*07:02 were also overrepresented in AA. High-risk clonal evolution was correlated with HLA loss, HLA-B*14:02 genotype, and older age, which yielded a valid prediction model. In 2 patients, we traced monosomy 7 clonal evolution from preexisting clones harboring somatic mutations in HLA-A*02:01 and HLA-B*40:02. Loss of HLA-B*40:02 correlated with higher blood counts. HLA-B*07:02 and HLA-B*40:01 genotypes and their loss correlated with late-onset of AA. Our results suggest the presence of specific immune mechanisms of molecular pathogenesis with clinical implications. HLA genotyping and screening for HLA loss may be of value in the management of immune AA. This study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00001964, NCT00061360, NCT00195624, NCT00260689, NCT00944749, NCT01193283, and NCT01623167.

Granulocyte transfusions in severe aplastic anemia.

Patients with severe aplastic anemia (SAA) are at high risk for morbidity and mortality due to severe infections. We aimed to characterize the role of granulocyte transfusion (GT) in SAA. Primary outcomes were survival from first GT, including overall survival (OS) at last follow up, survival to discharge, and receipt of HSCT. Secondary outcomes included evaluation of clinical response at 7 and 30 days after GT initiation based on a clinical scoring system incorporating microbiological and radiographic response. Twenty-eight SAA patients underwent 30 GT courses with a per-dose median of 1.28 x 109 granulocyte cells/kilogram (range 0.45-4.52 x 109). OS from initial GT to median last follow up (551 days) was 50%, with 39% (11/28) alive at last follow up. Sixty-four percent (18/28) of all patients survived to hospital discharge. Patients with complete, partial, or stable response at 30 days had significantly improved OS compared to non-responders (p=0.0004). Eighty-six percent (18/21) of patients awaiting HSCT during GT underwent transplant and 62% (13/21) survived to post-HSCT discharge. Sex, type of infection, or percentage of days with absolute neutrophil count > 0.2x109/L during GT course were not predictive of survival (p=0.52, p=0.7, p=0.28). Nine of 28 (32%) patients developed new or increased human leukocyte antigen (HLA) alloimmunization during their GT course. GTs in SAA may impact survival in those with improvement or stabilization of their underlying infection. Alloimmunization can occur and OS in this population remains poor, but GTs may be a useful tool to bridge patients to curative treatment with HSCT.

Thoracic Aortic Volume as a Predictor of Cardiovascular Events: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether thoracic aortic volume (TAV) is useful for cardiovascular (CV) disease prognosis and risk assessment. PURPOSE: This study evaluated cross-sectional associations of TAV with CV risk factors, and longitudinal association with incident CV events in the multiethnic study of atherosclerosis. STUDY TYPE: Retrospective cohort analysis of prospective data. POPULATION: 1182 participants (69 ± 9 years, 54% female, 37% Caucasian, 18% Chinese, 31% African American, 14% Hispanic, 60% hypertensive, and 20% diabetic) without prior CV disease. FIELD STRENGTH AND SEQUENCES: Axial black-blood turbo spin echo or bright blood steady-state free precession images on 1.5T scanners. ASSESSMENT: TAV was calculated using Simpson's method from axial images, and included the ascending arch and descending segments. Traditional CV risk factors were assessed at the time of MRI. CV outcomes over a 9-year follow-up period were recorded and represented a composite of stroke, stroke death, coronary heart disease (CHD), CHD death, atherosclerotic death, and CVD death. STATISTICAL TESTS: Multivariable linear regression models adjusted for height and weight were used to determine the relationship (ß coefficient) between TAV and CV risk factors. Cox regression models assessed the association of TAV and incident CV events. A P-value of <0.05 was deemed statistically significant. RESULTS: Mean TAV was = 139 ± 41 mL. In multivariable regression, TAV was directly associated with age (ß = 1.6), male gender (ß = 23.9), systolic blood pressure (ß = 0.1), and hypertension medication use (ß = 7.9); and inversely associated with lipid medication use (ß = -5.3) and treated diabetes (ß = -8.9). Compared to Caucasians, Chinese Americans had higher TAV (ß = 11.4), while African Americans had lower TAV (ß = -7.0). Higher TAV was independently associated with incident CV events (HR: 1.057 per 10 mL). CONCLUSION: Greater TAV is associated with incident CV events, increased age, and hypertension in a large multiethnic population while treated diabetes and lipid medication use were associated with lower TAV. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: 2 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 2.

Alemtuzumab in relapsed immune severe aplastic anemia: Long-term results of a phase II study.

Immune severe aplastic anemia (SAA) is characterized by pancytopenia and immune-mediated bone marrow destruction. SAA may be treated with hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) or immunosuppressive therapy (IST). However, 30% of patients treated with IST relapse. We previously reported a clinical trial of alemtuzumab in which more than half of 25 relapsed SAA patients (56%) responded hematologically. Here, we present long-term results of a total of 42 patients. Participants with SAA who had previously completed antithymocyte globulin (ATG)-based IST, but had relapsed, were enrolled on this study. Alemtuzumab was administered intravenously (IV) (n = 28) or subcutaneously (SC) (n = 14). The primary endpoint was hematologic response at 6 months. Secondary endpoints included relapse, clonal evolution, and survival. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov (NCT00195624). Patients were enrolled over 9 years, with median follow-up of 6 years. Median age was 32 years, with 57% being female. At 6 months, 18 patients (43%) achieved response; 15 (54%) of those who received IV compared with 3 (21%) who received SC therapy. Six patients (14%) had durable long-term response without need for subsequent AA-directed therapy or HSCT at last follow-up. Nine patients had clonal evolution, with high-risk evolution occurring in 6. Overall survival was 67% at median follow-up of 6 years. Prolonged iatrogenic immunosuppression was observed as long as 2 years after alemtuzumab administration. Alemtuzumab induces responses in relapsed SAA, some of which are durable long-term. However, immunosuppression can persist for years, requiring long-term monitoring.

Multivariate longitudinal data for survival analysis of cardiovascular event prediction in young adults: insights from a comparative explainable study.

BACKGROUND: Multivariate longitudinal data are under-utilized for survival analysis compared to cross-sectional data (CS - data collected once across cohort). Particularly in cardiovascular risk prediction, despite available methods of longitudinal data analysis, the value of longitudinal information has not been established in terms of improved predictive accuracy and clinical applicability. METHODS: We investigated the value of longitudinal data over and above the use of cross-sectional data via 6 distinct modeling strategies from statistics, machine learning, and deep learning that incorporate repeated measures for survival analysis of the time-to-cardiovascular event in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) cohort. We then examined and compared the use of model-specific interpretability methods (Random Survival Forest Variable Importance) and model-agnostic methods (SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) and Temporal Importance Model Explanation (TIME)) in cardiovascular risk prediction using the top-performing models. RESULTS: In a cohort of 3539 participants, longitudinal information from 35 variables that were repeatedly collected in 6 exam visits over 15 years improved subsequent long-term (17 years after) risk prediction by up to 8.3% in C-index compared to using baseline data (0.78 vs. 0.72), and up to approximately 4% compared to using the last observed CS data (0.75). Time-varying AUC was also higher in models using longitudinal data (0.86-0.87 at 5 years, 0.79-0.81 at 10 years) than using baseline or last observed CS data (0.80-0.86 at 5 years, 0.73-0.77 at 10 years). Comparative model interpretability analysis revealed the impact of longitudinal variables on model prediction on both the individual and global scales among different modeling strategies, as well as identifying the best time windows and best timing within that window for event prediction. The best strategy to incorporate longitudinal data for accuracy was time series massive feature extraction, and the easiest interpretable strategy was trajectory clustering. CONCLUSION: Our analysis demonstrates the added value of longitudinal data in predictive accuracy and epidemiological utility in cardiovascular risk survival analysis in young adults via a unified, scalable framework that compares model performance and explainability. The framework can be extended to a larger number of variables and other longitudinal modeling methods. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00005130, Registration Date: 26/05/2000.

Middle age serum sodium levels in the upper part of normal range and risk of heart failure.

AIMS: With increasing prevalence of heart failure (HF) owing to the ageing population, identification of modifiable risk factors is important. In a mouse model, chronic hypohydration induced by lifelong water restriction promotes cardiac fibrosis. Hypohydration elevates serum sodium. Here, we evaluate the association of serum sodium at middle age as a measure of hydration habits with risk to develop HF. METHODS AND RESULTS: We analysed data from Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study with middle age enrolment (45-66 years) and 25 years of follow-up. Participants without water balance dysregulation were selected: serum sodium within normal range (135-146 mmol/L), not diabetic, not obese and free of HF at baseline (N = 11 814). In time-to-event analysis, HF risk was increased by 39% if middle age serum sodium exceeded 143 mmol/L corresponding to 1% body weight water deficit [hazard ratio 1.39, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.14-1.70]. In a retrospective case-control analysis performed on 70- to 90-year-old attendees of Visit 5 (N = 4961), serum sodium of 142.5-143 mmol/L was associated with 62% increase in odds of left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) diagnosis [odds ratio (OR) 1.62, 95% CI 1.03-2.55]. Serum sodium above 143 mmol/L was associated with 107% increase in odds of LVH (OR 2.07, 95% CI 1.30-3.28) and 54% increase in odds of HF (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.06-2.23). As a result, prevalence of HF and LVH was increased among 70- to 90-year-old participants with higher middle age serum sodium. CONCLUSION: Middle age serum sodium above 142 mmol is a risk factor for LVH and HF. Maintaining good hydration throughout life may slow down decline in cardiac function and decrease prevalence of HF.

Clinical outcomes and immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination in severe aplastic anaemia.

Patients with severe aplastic anaemia (SAA) are often not vaccinated against viruses due to concerns of ineffective protective antibody response and potential for pathogenic global immune system activation, leading to relapse. We evaluated the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on haematological indices and disease status and characterized the humoural and cellular responses to vaccination in 50 SAA patients, who were previously treated with immunosuppressive therapy (IST). There was no significant difference in haemoglobin (p = 0.52), platelet count (p = 0.67), absolute lymphocyte (p = 0.42) and neutrophil (p = 0.98) counts prior to and after completion of vaccination series. Relapse after vaccination, defined as a progressive decline in counts requiring treatment, occurred in three patients (6%). Humoural response was detectable in 90% (28/31) of cases by reduction in an in-vitro Angiotensin II Converting Enzyme (ACE2) binding and neutralization assay, even in patients receiving ciclosporin (10/11, 90.1%). Comparison of spike-specific T-cell responses in 27 SAA patients and 10 control subjects revealed qualitatively similar CD4+ Th1-dominant responses to vaccination. There was no difference in CD4+ (p = 0.77) or CD8+ (p = 0.74) T-cell responses between patients on or off ciclosporin therapy at the time of vaccination. Our data highlight appropriate humoural and cellular responses in SAA previously treated with IST and true relapse after vaccination is rare.

Change in Left Atrioventricular Coupling Index to Predict Incident Atrial Fibrillation: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

Background Left atrial (LA) and left ventricular (LV) structural and functional parameters have independent prognostic values as predictors of atrial fibrillation (AF). Purpose To investigate the prognostic value of a left atrioventricular coupling index (LACI) and average annualized change in LACI (hereafter, ΔLACI) measured by cardiac MRI to predict incident AF in a population-based sample from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Materials and Methods In a secondary analysis of the prospective MESA, 1911 study participants without clinically recognized AF and cardiovascular disease at baseline had LACI assessed with cardiac MRI at baseline (examination 1, 2000-2002) and 10 years later (examination 5, 2010-2012). LACI was defined as the ratio of LA to LV end-diastolic volumes. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate the associations of LACI and average ΔLACI with incident AF. Results Among the 1911 participants (mean age, 59 years ± 9 [standard deviation]; 907 men), 87 incident AF events occurred over 3.9 years ± 0.9 after the second imaging (examination 5). After adjustment for traditional risk factors, greater LACI and ΔLACI were independently associated with AF (hazard ratio, 1.69 [95% CI: 1.46, 1.96] and 1.71 [95% CI: 1.50, 1.94], respectively; both P < .001). Adjusted models for LACI and ΔLACI showed improvement in model discrimination compared with currently used AF risk score (Cohort for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology-Atrial Fibrillation, or CHARGE-AF, score) model (area under receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.78 vs 0.74; and AUC, 0.80 vs 0.74, respectively; both P < .001); and to the final model including individual LA or LV parameters for predicting AF incidence (AUC, 0.78 vs 0.76; and AUC, 0.80 vs 0.78, respectively; both P < .001). Conclusion Atrioventricular coupling (left atrioventricular coupling index [LACI]) and coupling change (annual change in LACI) were strong predictors for atrial fibrillation (AF) in a multiethnic population. Both had incremental prognostic value for predicting AF over traditional risk factors, and superior discrimination compared with the Cohort for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology-Atrial Fibrillation, or CHARGE-AF, score and to individual left atrial or left ventricular parameters. © RSNA, 2022 Online supplemental material is available for this article. See also the editorial by Leiner in this issue.

Predicting response of severe aplastic anemia to immunosuppression combined with eltrombopag.

Pretreatment blood counts, particularly an absolute reticulocyte count ≥25×109/L, correlate with response to immunosuppressive therapy in severe aplastic anemia. In recent trials, eltrombopag combined with standard immunosuppressive therapy yielded superior responses than those to immunosuppressive therapy alone. Our single institution retrospective study aimed to elucidate whether historical predictors of response to immunosuppressive therapy alone were also associated with response to immunosuppressive therapy plus eltrombopag. We sought correlations of blood counts, thrombopoietin levels and the presence of paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria clones with both overall and complete responses in 416 patients with severe aplastic anemia, aged 2-82 years (median, 30 years), initially treated with immunosuppressive therapy plus eltrombopag between 2012 and 2019 (n=176) or with immunosuppressive therapy alone between 1999 and 2010 (n=240). Compared to non-responders, patients in the group of overall responders to immunosuppressive therapy plus eltrombopag had significantly higher pretreatment absolute reticulocyte counts, higher neutrophil counts and reduced thrombopoietin levels, as also observed for the group treated with immunosuppressive therapy alone. Addition of eltrombopag markedly improved the overall response in subjects with an absolute reticulocyte count between 10-30×109/L from 60% (54 of 90) to 91% (62 of 68). Absolute lymphocyte count correlated with complete response in the groups treated with immunosuppressive therapy with or without eltrombopag, especially in adolescents aged ≥10 years and adults, but the correlation was reversed in younger children. Platelet count and the presence of a paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria clone did not correlate with responses to immunosuppressive therapy. Blood counts remain the best predictors of response to nontransplant therapies in severe aplastic anemia. Addition of eltrombopag to immunosuppressive therapy shifted patients with a lower absolute reticulocyte count into a better prognostic category.

Deep Learning-based Automated Aortic Area and Distensibility Assessment: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

This study details application of deep learning for automatic segmentation of the ascending and descending aorta from 2D phase-contrast cine magnetic resonance imaging for automatic aortic analysis on the large MESA cohort with assessment on an external cohort of thoracic aortic aneurysm (TAA) patients. This study includes images and corresponding analysis of the ascending and descending aorta at the pulmonary artery bifurcation from the MESA study. Train, validation, and internal test sets consisted of 1123 studies (24,282 images), 374 studies (8067 images), and 375 studies (8069 images), respectively. The external test set of TAAs consisted of 37 studies (3224 images). CNN performance was evaluated utilizing a dice coefficient and concordance correlation coefficients (CCC) of geometric parameters. Dice coefficients were as high as 97.55% (CI: 97.47-97.62%) and 93.56% (CI: 84.63-96.68%) on the internal and external test of TAAs, respectively. CCC for maximum and minimum and ascending aortic area were 0.969 and 0.950, respectively, on the internal test set and 0.997 and 0.995, respectively, for the external test. The absolute differences between manual and deep learning segmentations for ascending and descending aortic distensibility were 0.0194 × 10-4 ± 9.67 × 10-4 and 0.002 ± 0.001 mmHg-1, respectively, on the internal test set and 0.44 × 10-4 ± 20.4 × 10-4 and 0.002 ± 0.001 mmHg-1, respectively, on the external test set. We successfully developed a U-Net-based aortic segmentation and analysis algorithm in both MESA and in external cases of TAA.

A phenotypic risk score for predicting mortality in sickle cell disease.

Risk assessment for patients with sickle cell disease (SCD) remains challenging as it depends on an individual physician's experience and ability to integrate a variety of test results. We aimed to provide a new risk score that combines clinical, laboratory, and imaging data. In a prospective cohort of 600 adult patients with SCD, we assessed the relationship of 70 baseline covariates to all-cause mortality. Random survival forest and regularised Cox regression machine learning (ML) methods were used to select top predictors. Multivariable models and a risk score were developed and internally validated. Over a median follow-up of 4·3 years, 131 deaths were recorded. Multivariable models were developed using nine independent predictors of mortality: tricuspid regurgitant velocity, estimated right atrial pressure, mitral E velocity, left ventricular septal thickness, body mass index, blood urea nitrogen, alkaline phosphatase, heart rate and age. Our prognostic risk score had superior performance with a bias-corrected C-statistic of 0·763. Our model stratified patients into four groups with significantly different 4-year mortality rates (3%, 11%, 35% and 75% respectively). Using readily available variables from patients with SCD, we applied ML techniques to develop and validate a mortality risk scoring method that reflects the summation of cardiopulmonary, renal and liver end-organ damage. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT#00011648.

Eltrombopag added to immunosuppression for children with treatment-naïve severe aplastic anaemia.

Acquired severe aplastic anaemia (SAA) has an immune pathogenesis, and immunosuppressive therapy (IST) with anti-thymocyte globulin and cyclosporine is effective therapy. Eltrombopag (EPAG) added to standard IST was associated with higher overall and complete response rates in patients with treatment-naïve SAA compared to a historical IST cohort. We performed a paediatric subgroup analysis of this trial including all patients aged <18 years who received EPAG plus standard IST (n = 40 patients) compared to a historical cohort (n = 87) who received IST alone. Response, relapse, clonal evolution, event-free survival (EFS), and overall survival were assessed. There was no significant difference in either the overall response rate (ORR) or complete response rate at 6 months (ORR 70% in EPAG group, 72% in historical group, P = 0·78). Adults (≥18 years) had a significantly improved ORR of 82% with EPAG compared to 58% historically (P < 0·001). Younger children had lower response rates than did adolescents. The trend towards relapse was higher and EFS significantly lower in children who received EPAG compared to IST alone. Addition of EPAG added to standard IST did not improve outcomes in children with treatment-naïve SAA. EPAG in the paediatric population should not automatically be considered standard of care. Registration: clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01623167).

Eltrombopag monotherapy can improve hematopoiesis in patients with low to intermediate risk-1 myelodysplastic syndrome.

Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) are a group of clonal myeloid disorders characterized by cytopenia and a propensity to develop acute myeloid leukemia (AML). The management of lower-risk (LR) MDS with persistent cytopenias remains suboptimal. Eltrombopag (EPAG), a thrombopoietin receptor agonist, can improve platelet counts in LR-MDS and tri-lineage hematopoiesis in aplastic anemia (AA). We conducted a phase 2 dose modification study to investigate the safety and efficacy of EPAG in LR-MDS. EPAG dose was escalated from 50 mg/day, to a maximum of 150 mg/day over a period of 16 weeks. The primary efficacy endpoint was hematologic response at 16-20 weeks. Eleven of 25 (44%) patients responded; five and six patients had uni- or bi-lineage hematologic responses, respectively. The predictors of response were presence of a PNH clone, marrow hypocellularity, thrombocytopenia with or without other cytopenia, and elevated plasma thrombopoietin levels at study entry. The safety profile was consistent with previous EPAG studies in AA; no patients discontinued drug due to adverse events. Three patients developed reversible grade-3 liver toxicity and one patient had increased reticulin fibrosis. Ten patients discontinued EPAG after achieving a robust response (median time 16 months); four of them reinitiated EPAG due to declining counts, and all attained a second robust response. Six patients had disease progression not associated with expansion of mutated clones and no patient progressed to AML on study. In conclusion, EPAG was well-tolerated and effective in restoring hematopoiesis in patients with low to intermediate-1 risk MDS. This study was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00932156.