Circulating ketone bodies and cardiovascular outcomes: the MESA study.

AIMS: Ketone bodies (KB) are an important alternative metabolic fuel source for the myocardium. Experimental and human investigations suggest that KB may have protective effects in patients with heart failure. This study aimed to examine the association between KB and cardiovascular outcomes and mortality in an ethnically diverse population free from cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS AND RESULTS: This analysis included 6796 participants (mean age 62 ± 10 years, 53% women) from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. Total KB was measured by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the association of total KB with cardiovascular outcomes. At a mean follow-up of 13.6 years, after adjusting for traditional CVD risk factors, increasing total KB was associated with a higher rate of hard CVD, defined as a composite of myocardial infarction, resuscitated cardiac arrest, stroke, and cardiovascular death, and all CVD (additionally included adjudicated angina) [hazard ratio, HR (95% confidence interval, CI): 1.54 (1.12-2.12) and 1.37 (1.04-1.80) per 10-fold increase in total KB, respectively]. Participants also experienced an 87% (95% CI: 1.17-2.97) increased rate of CVD mortality and an 81% (1.45-2.23) increased rate of all-cause mortality per 10-fold increase in total KB. Moreover, a higher rate of incident heart failure was observed with increasing total KB [1.68 (1.07-2.65), per 10-fold increase in total KB]. CONCLUSION: The study found that elevated endogenous KB in a healthy community-based population is associated with a higher rate of CVD and mortality. Ketone bodies could serve as a potential biomarker for cardiovascular risk assessment.

Effect of vigorous-intensity physical activity on incident cognitive impairment in high-risk hypertension.

INTRODUCTION: We investigated the effect vigorous physical activity (VPA) on the risk of incident mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and probable dementia among individuals with high-risk hypertension. METHODS: Baseline self-reported frequency of VPA was categorized into low VPA (<1 session/week), and high VPA (≥1 session/week). We used multivariate Cox regression analysis to examine the association of VPA categories with incident MCI and probable dementia events. RESULTS: Participants in the high VPA category, compared with low VPA, experienced lower events rates (per 1000 person-years) of MCI (13.9 vs 19.7), probable dementia (6.3 vs 9.0), and MCI/probable dementia (18.5 vs 25.8). In the multivariate Cox regression model, high VPA, compared with low VPA, was associated with lower risk of MCI, probable dementia, and MCI/probable dementia (HR [95% CI]: 0.81 [0.68-0.97], 0.80 [0.63-1.03], and 0.82 [0.70-0.96]), respectively. DISCUSSION: This study provides evidence that VPA may preserve cognitive function in high-risk patients with hypertension. HIGHLIGHTS: Hypertension is associated with an increased risk of cognitive impairment Physical activity (PA) is associated with a lower risk of decline in cognition The effect of ≥1 sessions of vigorous-intensity PA (VPA) per week was assessed This analysis included SPRINT MIND trial participants with high-risk hypertension ≥1 VPA sessions/week was associated with lower risk of future cognitive impairment.

Association of silent myocardial infarction on electrocardiogram and coronary artery calcium: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Silent myocardial infarction (SMI) on electrocardiogram (ECG) is associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, but the relationship between SMI on ECG and coronary artery calcium (CAC) remains poorly understood. OBJECTIVE: Characterize the relationship between SMI on ECG and CAC. METHODS: Eligible participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis study had ECG and CAC scoring at study enrollment (2000-2002). SMI was defined as ECG evidence of myocardial infarction in the absence of a history of clinical cardiovascular disease. CAC was modeled both continuously and categorically. The cross-sectional relationships between SMI on ECG and CAC were assessed using logistic regression and linear regression. RESULTS: Among 6705 eligible participants, 178 (2.7%) had baseline SMI. Compared to participants without SMI, those with SMI had higher CAC (median [IQR]: 61.2 [0-261.7] vs. 0 [0-81.5]; p < .0001). Participants with SMI were more likely to have non-zero CAC (74% vs. 49%) and were more likely to have CAC ≥ 100 (40% vs. 23%). In a multivariable-adjusted logistic model, SMI was associated with higher odds of non-zero CAC (odds ratio 2.17, 95% CI 1.48-3.20, p < .0001) and 51% higher odds of CAC ≥ 100 (odds ratio 1.51, 95% CI 1.06-2.16, p = .02). CONCLUSION: An incidental finding of SMI on ECG may serve to identify patients who have a higher odds of significant CAC and may benefit from additional risk stratification to further refine their cardiovascular risk. Further exploration of the utility of CAC assessment in this patient population is needed.

Relationship between abnormal P-wave axis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and mortality in the general population.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether the presence of a vertical P-wave axis on electrocardiogram modifies the association of COPD with mortality. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association and interaction of abnormal P-wave axis and COPD with mortality. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: The analysis included 7359 with ECG data from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES-III) who were free of cardiovascular disease (CVD) at enrollment. Abnormal P-wave axis (aPWA) was defined as values above 75°. COPD was self-reported as either a diagnosis of emphysema or chronic bronchitis. National Death Index was used to identify the date of death and cause of death. Using multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis, we examined the association of COPD with all-cause mortality by aPWA status. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 14 years, 2435 deaths occurred. Participants with concomitant presence of aPWA and COPD experienced higher death rates (73.9 per 1000 person-years (PY)) compared to either COPD or aPWA alone (36.4 per 1000 PY and 31.1 per 1000 PY), respectively. In multivariable-adjusted models, a stronger association between COPD and mortality was noted in the presence compared to the absence of aPWA (HR 95% CI): 1.71 (1.37-2.13) vs. 1.22(1.00-1.49), respectively (interaction P-value = 0.02). Similarly, a stronger association between aPWA and mortality was observed in the presence compared to the absence of COPD (HR 95% CI): 1.66(1.26-2.19) vs. 1.18(1.06-1.31), respectively (interaction P-value = 0.02). Similar higher death rates and mortality risk was observed when spirometry-confirmed COPD and aPWA were present together than in isolation. CONCLUSION: The concomitant presence of aPWA and COPD leads to a significantly higher mortality rate compared to the presence either COPD or aPWA alone as a clinical variable. P-wave axis, reported routinely on ECG printout, can potentially identify patients with COPD who need intensive control of risk factors and disease management.

Association of T-wave abnormalities with major cardiovascular events in diabetes: the ACCORD trial.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: T-wave abnormalities (TWA) are often found on ECG and signify abnormal ventricular repolarisation. While TWA have been shown to be associated with subclinical atherosclerosis, the relationship between TWA and hard cardiovascular endpoints is less clear and may differ in the presence of diabetes, so we sought to explore these associations in participants from the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial. METHODS: TWA were operationally defined as the presence of any Minnesota Codes 5-1 through 5-4 in any lead distribution. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were constructed to examine relationships between TWA and clinical cardiovascular events. Secondary analyses explored the risks conferred by major vs minor TWA, differential effects of TWA by anatomic localisation (anterolateral, inferior or anterior lead distributions), and differing associations in those with or without prevalent CVD. RESULTS: Among 8176 eligible participants (mean 62.1 ± 6.3 SD years, 61.4% male), there were 3759 cardiovascular events, including 1430 deaths (473 of a cardiovascular aetiology), 474 heart failure events, 1452 major CHD events and 403 strokes. Participants with TWA had increased risks of all-cause mortality (HR 1.45 [95% CI 1.30, 1.62], p < 0.0001), cardiovascular mortality (HR 1.93 [1.59, 2.34], p = 0.0001), congestive heart failure (HR 2.04 [1.69, 2.48], p < 0.0001) and major CHD (HR 1.40 [1.26, 1.57], p < 0.0001), but no increased risk of stroke (HR 0.99 [0.80, 1.23], p = 0.95). Major TWA conferred a higher risk than minor TWA. When TWA were added to the UK Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine, there was improved discrimination for incident CHD events, but only for those with prevalent CVD (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.5744 and 0.6030 with p = 0.0067). Adding TWA to the risk engine yielded improvements in reclassification that were of greater magnitude in those with prevalent CVD (net reclassification improvement [NRI] 0.24 [95% CI 0.16, 0.32] in those with prevalent CVD, NRI 0.14 [95% CI 0.07, 0.22] in those without prevalent CVD). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The presence and magnitude of TWA are associated with increased risk of clinical cardiovascular events and mortality in individuals with diabetes and may have value in refining risk, particularly in those with prevalent CVD. Graphical abstract.

Coronary Artery Calcium for Personalized Allocation of Aspirin in Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in 2019: The MESA Study (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis).

BACKGROUND: Recent American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Primary Prevention Guidelines recommended considering low-dose aspirin therapy only among adults 40 to 70 years of age who are at higher atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk but not at high risk of bleeding. However, it remains unclear how these patients are best identified. The present study aimed to assess the value of coronary artery calcium (CAC) for guiding aspirin allocation for primary prevention by using 2019 aspirin meta-analysis data on cardiovascular disease relative risk reduction and bleeding risk. METHODS: The study included 6470 participants from the MESA Study (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). ASCVD risk was estimated using the pooled cohort equations, and 3 strata were defined: <5%, 5% to 20%, and >20%. All participants underwent CAC scoring at baseline, and CAC scores were stratified as =0, 1 to 99, ≥100, and ≥400. A 12% relative risk reduction in cardiovascular disease events was used for the 5-year number needed to treat (NNT5) calculations, and a 42% relative risk increase in major bleeding events was used for the 5-year number needed to harm (NNH5) estimations. RESULTS: Only 5% of MESA participants would qualify for aspirin consideration for primary prevention according to the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines and using >20% estimated ASCVD risk to define higher risk. Benefit/harm calculations were restricted to aspirin-naive participants <70 years of age not at high risk of bleeding (n=3540). The overall NNT5 with aspirin to prevent 1 cardiovascular disease event was 476 and the NNH5 was 355. The NNT5 was also greater than or similar to the NNH5 among estimated ASCVD risk strata. Conversely, CAC≥100 and CAC≥400 identified subgroups in which NNT5 was lower than NNH5. This was true both overall (for CAC≥100, NNT5=140 versus NNH5=518) and within ASCVD risk strata. Also, CAC=0 identified subgroups in which the NNT5 was much higher than the NNH5 (overall, NNT5=1190 versus NNH5=567). CONCLUSIONS: CAC may be superior to the pooled cohort equations to inform the allocation of aspirin in primary prevention. Implementation of current 2019 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline recommendations together with the use of CAC for further risk assessment may result in a more personalized, safer allocation of aspirin in primary prevention. Confirmation of these findings in experimental settings is needed.

The utility of silent myocardial infarction on electrocardiogram as an ASCVD risk enhancer for primary prevention: The multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: The 2018 AHA/ACC cholesterol guidelines introduced a new list of markers called "risk enhancers" that, if present, confer an increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). Silent myocardial infarction (SMI) on electrocardiogram (ECG) is notably absent, even though it associated with future ASCVD. METHODS: We assessed the utility of SMI on ECG as a risk-enhancer in intermediate-risk participants in MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) - those with 10-year ASCVD risk of 5-20% by the pooled cohort equation (PCE). SMI was defined as major Q-wave abnormality or minor Q/QS waves in the setting of major ST-T abnormalities without prevalent clinical cardiovascular disease. RESULTS: Among 2946 participants (mean age 63.1 ± 7.6, 53.9% women, 36% white, 11% Chinese-American, 33% African-American, 19% Hispanic), 66 (2.2%) had SMI at baseline. After a median 15.8 years of follow-up, incident ASCVD events occurred in 431/2876 (15.0%) of those without SMI and 16/66 (24.2%) of those with SMI. In a multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards model, baseline SMI was associated with an increased risk of incident ASCVD events (HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.02-2.77, p = 0.04). However, adding SMI to the PCE did not improve discrimination and reclassification was modest-net reclassification improvement was 0.0161 (95% CI 0.002-0.034, p = 0.08). CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that the prevalence of SMI is 2.2% among those without known clinical cardiovascular disease considered intermediate-risk by the PCE. In our analysis, SMI only modestly improved classification of risk, suggesting that it may not be very useful as an ASCVD risk enhancer.

P-wave axis is associated with all-cause mortality in diabetes: The ACCORD trial.

Abnormal P-wave axis (PWA) has emerged as a novel marker of risk for both cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality (ACM) in the general population, though this relationship has not been adequately explored among those with type 2 diabetes (DM2). We aimed to explore the association between abnormal PWA and ACM among a large, well-phenotyped group of participants with DM2 from the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes (ACCORD) trial. This analysis included 8899 ACCORD participants with available PWA data on baseline electrocardiogram. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between PWA and ACM in models adjusted for demographics, ACCORD trial treatment assignment, and potential confounders. PWA was modeled as either normal (0° -75°) or abnormal (<0° or >75°). Over 44,000 person-years of follow up, there were 609 deaths. Participants with abnormal PWA had increased risk of ACM (HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.25-2.08). After multivariable adjustment, the association remained significant (HR 1.33, 95% CI 1.03-1.72). This relationship was similar in subgroups stratified by age, race, sex, and history of CVD. Among ACCORD trial participants, abnormal PWA was associated with an increased risk of mortality. Abnormal PWA may have added value beyond traditional risk factors in prediction models.

QRS duration is associated with all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes: The diabetes heart study.

BACKGROUND: QRS-duration predicts mortality in patients with heart failure and, to a lesser extent, the general population. However, in patients with diabetes, its prognostic significance is unknown. To better understand how QRS-duration relates to mortality among those with diabetes, we explored survival as a function of QRS-duration in the Diabetes Heart Study. METHODS: The study population included 1335 participants. Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to evaluate the relationship between QRS-duration and all-cause mortality, comparing those with QRS-duration ≤120 vs. >120 (ms). Multivariable models adjusted for age, sex, race, hypertension, smoking, years with diabetes, BMI, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol, triglycerides, glomerular filtration rate, and hemoglobin A1c. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: Participants were: mean age 61 ± 9, 55% women, 83% white; 99 participants (7.5%) had a QRS-duration >120. After 11,000 person-years of follow-up (median 8.5 years; maximum 13.9 years), 266 participants had died (20%). Participants with baseline QRS-duration >120 had an adjusted hazard ratio for all-cause mortality of 1.56 (95% CI 1.05-2.24; p = 0.027). Modeling QRS-duration as a continuous variable, we found an 11% increase in all-cause mortality for each 10 ms increase in QRS-duration. In conclusion, QRS-duration is associated with subsequent all-cause mortality among those with type 2 diabetes-participants with QRS-duration >120 ms had a 56% increase in all-cause mortality, even after adjustment for conventional risk factors. Given the ubiquitous presence of ECG data in the medical record, QRS-duration may prove to be a useful prognostic measure, especially among those with diabetes.

Coronary Artery Calcium to Guide a Personalized Risk-Based Approach to Initiation and Intensification of Antihypertensive Therapy.

BACKGROUND: The use of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk to personalize systolic blood pressure (SBP) treatment goals is a topic of increasing interest. Therefore, we studied whether coronary artery calcium (CAC) can further guide the allocation of anti-hypertensive treatment intensity. METHODS: We included 3733 participants from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) with SBP between 120 and 179 mm Hg. Within subgroups categorized by both SBP (120-139 mm Hg, 140-159 mm Hg, and 160-179 mm Hg) and estimated 10-year ASCVD risk (using the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Assocation pooled-cohort equations), we compared multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for the composite outcome of incident ASCVD or heart failure after further stratifying by CAC (0, 1-100, or >100). We estimated 10-year number-needed-to-treat for an intensive SBP goal of 120 mm Hg by applying the treatment benefit recorded in meta-analyses to event rates within CAC strata. RESULTS: The mean age was 65 years, and 642 composite events took place over a median of 10.2 years. In persons with SBP <160 mm Hg, CAC stratified risk for events. For example, among those with an ASCVD risk of <15% and who had an SBP of either 120 to 139 mm Hg or 140 to 159 mm Hg, respectively, we found increasing hazard ratios for events with CAC 1 to 100 (1.7 [95% confidence interval, 1.0-2.6] or 2.0 [1.1-3.8]) and CAC >100 (3.0 [1.8-5.0] or 5.7 [2.9-11.0]), all relative to CAC=0. There appeared to be no statistical association between CAC and events when SBP was 160 to 179 mm Hg, irrespective of ASCVD risk level. Estimated 10-year number-needed-to-treat for a SBP goal of 120mmHg varied substantially according to CAC levels when predicted ASCVD risk <15% and SBP <160mmHg (eg, 10-year number-needed-to-treat of 99 for CAC=0 and 24 for CAC>100, when SBP 120-139mm Hg). However, few participants with ASCVD risk <5% had elevated CAC. Furthermore, 10-year number-needed-to-treat estimates were consistently low and varied less among CAC strata when SBP was 160 to 179 mm Hg or when ASCVD risk was ≥15% at any SBP level. CONCLUSIONS: Combined CAC imaging and assessment of global ASCVD risk has the potential to guide personalized SBP goals (eg, choosing a traditional goal of 140 or a more intensive goal of 120 mm Hg), particularly among adults with an estimated ASCVD risk of 5% to 15% and prehypertension or mild hypertension.

Revised Framingham Stroke Risk Score, Nontraditional Risk Markers, and Incident Stroke in a Multiethnic Cohort.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Limited data exist on the performance of the revised Framingham Stroke Risk Score (R-FSRS) and the R-FSRS in conjunction with nontraditional risk markers. We compared the R-FSRS, original FSRS, and the Pooled Cohort Equation for stroke prediction and assessed the improvement in discrimination by nontraditional risk markers. METHODS: Six thousand seven hundred twelve of 6814 participants of the MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) were included. Cox proportional hazard, area under the curve, net reclassification improvement, and integrated discrimination increment analysis were used to assess and compare each stroke prediction risk score. Stroke was defined as fatal/nonfatal strokes (hemorrhagic or ischemic). RESULTS: After mean follow-up of 10.7 years, 231 of 6712 (3.4%) strokes were adjudicated (2.7% ischemic strokes). Mean stroke risks using the R-FSRS, original FSRS, and Pooled Cohort Equation were 4.7%, 5.9%, and 13.5%. The R-FSRS had the best calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit, χ2=6.55; P=0.59). All risk scores were predictive of incident stroke. C statistics of R-FSRS (0.716) was similar to Pooled Cohort Equation (0.716), but significantly higher than the original FSRS (0.653; P=0.01 for comparison with R-FSRS). Adding nontraditional risk markers individually to the R-FSRS did not improve discrimination of the R-FSRS in the area under the curve analysis, but did improve category-less net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination increment for incident stroke. The addition of coronary artery calcium to R-FSRS produced the highest category-less net reclassification improvement (0.36) and integrated discrimination increment (0.0027). Similar results were obtained when ischemic strokes were used as the outcome. CONCLUSIONS: The R-FSRS downgraded stroke risk but had better calibration and discriminative ability for incident stroke compared with the original FSRS. Nontraditional risk markers modestly improved the discriminative ability of the R-FSRS, with coronary artery calcium performing the best.

Factors of health in the protection against death and cardiovascular disease among adults with subclinical atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Although cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention traditionally emphasizes risk factor control, recent evidence also supports the promotion of "health factors" associated with cardiovascular wellness. However, whether such health factors exist among adults with advanced subclinical atherosclerosis is unknown. We aimed to study the association between health factors and events among persons with elevated coronary artery calcium (CAC). METHODS: Self-reported health-factors studied included nonsmoking, physical activity, Mediterranean-style diet, sleep quality, emotional support, low stress burden, and absence of depression. Measured health-factors included optimal weight, blood pressure, lipids, and glucose. Multivariable-adjusted Cox models examined the association between health factors and incident CVD or mortality, independent of risk factor treatment. Accelerated failure time models assessed whether health factors were associated with relative time delays in disease onset. RESULTS: Among 1,601 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants with CAC >100 without baseline clinical atherosclerotic CVD, mean age was 69 (±9) years, 64% were male, and median CAC score was 332 Agatston units. Over 12 years of follow-up, nonsmoking, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels >40 mg/dL for men and >50 mg/dL for women, and low stress burden were inversely associated with ASCVD (hazard ratios ranging from 0.58 to 0.71, all P<.05). Nonsmoking, glucose levels <100 mg/dL, regular physical activity, and low stress burden were inversely associated with mortality (hazard ratios ranging from 0.40 to 0.77, all P<.05). Each of these factors was also associated with delays in onset of clinical disease, as was absence of depression. CONCLUSIONS: Adults with elevated CAC appear to have healthy lifestyle options to lower risk and delay onset of CVD, over and above standard preventive therapies.

Adult Height, Prevalent Coronary Artery Calcium Score, and Incident Cardiovascular Disease Outcomes in a Multiethnic Cohort.

We assessed the relationships among adult height, coronary artery calcium (CAC) score, incident atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events, and atrial fibrillation (AFib) in a multiethnic cohort. We used race/ethnicity-specific height (dichotomized by median value and in quartiles) as the predictor variable within the 4 racial/ethnic groups in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (n = 6,814). After a mean of 10.2 years of follow-up (2000-2012), 556 ASCVD events (8.2%) and 539 AFib events (7.9%) occurred. Adult height was not associated with prevalent CAC score (ln(CAC + 1) or categories). Tall stature (i.e., race/ethnicity-specific height ≥median) had a significant but opposite association with future ASCVD and AFib (hazard ratios were 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.56, 0.92) and 1.38 (95% confidence interval: 1.07, 1.79), respectively). We observed a gradient-response but opposite association between quartiles of race/ethnicity-specific height and ASCVD/AFib events in our multivariable models. A formal test of interaction between race/ethnicity-specific height and sex was not significant in the ASCVD model (P = 0.78) but was significant in the AFib model (P = 0.03). Tall stature was associated (in a gradient-response fashion) with reduced risk of ASCVD events and increased risk of AFib. Adult height may signal interactions between genetic and environmental factors and may provide risk information independent of current traditional risk factors and CAC score.

Utility of Nontraditional Risk Markers in Individuals Ineligible for Statin Therapy According to the 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Cholesterol Guidelines.

BACKGROUND: In the general population, the majority of cardiovascular events occur in people at the low to moderate end of population risk distribution. The 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guideline on the treatment of blood cholesterol recommends consideration of statin therapy for adults with an estimated 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk ≥7.5% based on traditional risk factors. Whether use of nontraditional risk markers can improve risk assessment in those below this threshold for statin therapy is unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA), a population sample free of clinical CVD at baseline, we calibrated the Pooled Cohort Equations (cPCE). ASCVD was defined as myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease death, or fatal or nonfatal stroke. Adults with an initial cPCE <7.5% and elevated levels of additional risk markers (abnormal test) whose new calculated risk was ≥7.5% were considered statin eligible: low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥160 mg/dL; family history of ASCVD; high-sensitivity C-reactive protein ≥2 mg/dL; coronary artery calcium score ≥300 Agatston units or ≥75th percentile for age, sex, and ethnicity; and ankle-brachial index <0.9. We compared the absolute and relative ASCVD risks among those with versus without elevated posttest estimated risk. We calculated the number needed to screen to identify 1 person with abnormal test for each risk marker, defined as the number of participants with baseline cPCE risk <7.5% divided by the number with an abnormal test reclassified as statin eligible. Of 5185 participants not taking statins with complete data (age, 45-84 years), 4185 had a cPCE risk <7.5%. During 10 years of follow-up, 57% of the ASCVD events (183 of 320) occurred among adults with a cPCE risk <7.5%. When people with diabetes mellitus were excluded, the coronary artery calcium criterion reclassified 6.8% upward, with an event rate of 13.3%, absolute risk of 10%, relative risk of 4.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.8-5.7), and number needed to screen of 14.7. The corresponding numbers for family history of ASCVD were 4.6%, 15.1%, 12%, 4.3 (95% CI, 3.0-6.4), and 21.8; for high-sensitivity C-reactive protein criteria, 2.6%, 10%, 6%, 2.6 (95% CI, 1.4-4.8), and 39.2; for ankle-brachial index criteria, 0.6%, 9%, 5%, 2.3 (95% CI, 0.6-8.6), and 176.5; and for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol criteria, 0.5%, 5%, 1%, 1.2 (95% CI, 0.2-8.4), and 193.3, respectively. Of the 3882 with <7.5% cPCE risk, 431 (11.1%) were reclassified to ≥7.5% (statin eligible) by at least 1 of the additional risk marker criteria. CONCLUSIONS: In this generally low-risk population sample, a large proportion of ASCVD events occurred among adults with a 10-year cPCE risk <7.5%. We found that the coronary artery calcium score, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, family history of ASCVD, and ankle-brachial index recommendations by the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association cholesterol guidelines (Class IIB) identify small subgroups of asymptomatic population with a 10-year cPCE risk <7.5% but with observed ASCVD event rates >7.5% who may warrant statin therapy considerations.

Prognosis of Low Normal Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction in an Asymptomatic Population-Based Adult Cohort: The Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Reduced left ventricular systolic function predicts worse outcomes. However, the optimal threshold for "normal" left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) is uncertain. In general, LVEF ≥ 55% is considered to be "normal" by guidelines, with a low normal designation for LVEF being 50%-55%. We assessed the prognosis of participants with low normal LVEF in the Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. All participants were asymptomatic and had no known clinical cardiovascular disease at baseline. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 4926 out of 6814 had LVEF assessed with the use of cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), had no significant valvular disease, did not have myocardial infarction during follow-up, had complete data, and were included in this analysis. A total of 83/4926 (1.7%) had LVEF < 50% (low LVEF) and 101/4926 (2.1%) had low normal LVEF. Cox proportional hazard and cubic spline analyses were used to evaluate the association between LVEF category and 10 years of adjudicated incident congestive heart failure (CHF) and all-cause mortality adjusting for (model 1) age, sex, and race and (model 2) model 1 and diabetes mellitus, smoking, systolic blood pressure (BP), BP medications, body mass index, estimated glomerular filtration rate, low-density lipoprotein, family history of coronary heart disease, educational status, and LV mass. Mean age was 61 ± 10 years, 47% were men, 35% were on BP medications, 9% had diabetes. After 10.2 years of follow-up, 109 (2.2%) had CHF and 427 (8.7%) died. Compared with normal LVEF (≥55%), low normal LVEF and low LVEF were associated with an increased risk for incident CHF during follow-up in our multivariable Cox models: hazard ratios (HRs) 3.64 (95% CI 1.76-7.52) and 9.52 (5.63-17.52), respectively. Unlike low LVEF, low normal LVEF was not associated with increased risk of death compared with normal LVEF in our fully adjusted models: HRs 3.03 (1.94-4.73) and 1.32 (0.72-2.41), respectively. In the adjusted spline analysis HR of LVEF 55% as reference, LVEF had a U-shape association of future CHF risk and LVEF. CONCLUSION: Low normal LVEF is as prevalent as low LVEF in asymptomatic community-dwelling adults. We observed a gradient-response association between the 3 categories of LVEF (low, low normal, and normal) and incident CHF but not for all-cause death.

Disparities in Abortion Experience and Access to Safe Abortion Services in Ghana: Evidence from a Retrospective Survey.

In Ghana, abortion mortality constitutes 11% of maternal mortality. Empirical studies on possible disparities in abortion experience and access to safe abortion services are however lacking. Based on a retrospective survey of 1,370 women aged 15-49 years in two districts in Ghana, this paper examines disparities in women's experiences of abortion and access to safe abortion care. Disparities in rates of abortion experience and access to safe abortion care were assessed using absolute (the difference in rates between groups), relative (the ratio of rates between selected and reference groups), and mean measures. Results suggest that 24% of women had at least one abortion in the five years preceding the survey. However, large gradients of socio-spatial disparities in abortion experience exist. The majority of abortions were also potentially unsafe: 53% of abortions occurred outside of any healthcare facility. Women themselves and medical doctors, respectively, performed 57% and 4% of all abortions. The majority of women also felt they could not get safe abortion even if they wanted one. Together, these results highlight the need for concerted multi-sectorial strategies, including legislative reform and provision of family planning services, to help transition from unsafe to safe abortions.