Identification and Evaluation of Blood-Based Biomarkers for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm.

INTRODUCTION: Blood-based biomarkers for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) have been studied individually; however, we considered a panel of proteins to investigate AAA prognosis and its potential to improve predictive accuracy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using a prospectively recruited cohort of patients with/without AAA (n = 452), we conducted a prognostic study to develop a model that accurately predicts AAA outcomes using clinical features and circulating biomarker levels. Serum concentrations of 9 biomarkers were measured at baseline, and the cohort was followed for 2 years. The primary outcome was major adverse aortic event (MAAE; composite of rapid AAA expansion [>0.5 cm/6 months or >1 cm/12 months], AAA intervention, or AAA rupture). Using 10-fold cross-validation, we trained a random forest model to predict 2 year MAAE using (1) clinical characteristics, (2) biomarkers, and (3) clinical characteristics and biomarkers. RESULTS: Two-year MAAE occurred in 114 (25%) patients. Two proteins were significantly elevated in patients with AAA compared with those without AAA (angiopoietin-2 and aggrecan), composing the protein panel. For predicting 2 year MAAE, our random forest model achieved area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.74 using clinical features alone, and the addition of the 2-protein panel improved performance to AUROC 0.86. CONCLUSIONS: Using a combination of clinical/biomarker data, we developed a model that accurately predicts 2 year MAAE.

Development and evaluation of a prediction model for peripheral artery disease-related major adverse limb events using novel biomarker data.

OBJECTIVE: Prognostic tools for individuals with peripheral artery disease (PAD) remain limited. We developed prediction models for 3-year PAD-related major adverse limb events (MALE) using demographic, clinical, and biomarker data previously validated by our group. METHODS: We performed a prognostic study using a prospectively recruited cohort of patients with PAD (n = 569). Demographic/clinical data were recorded including sex, age, comorbidities, previous procedures, and medications. Plasma concentrations of three biomarkers (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide [NT-proBNP], fatty acid binding protein 3 [FABP3], and FABP4) were measured at baseline. The cohort was followed for 3 years. MALE was the primary outcome (composite of open/endovascular vascular intervention or major amputation). We trained three machine learning models with 10-fold cross-validation using demographic, clinical, and biomarker data (random forest, decision trees, and Extreme Gradient Boosting [XGBoost]) to predict 3-year MALE in patients. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was the primary model evaluation metric. RESULTS: Three-year MALE was observed in 162 patients (29%). XGBoost was the top-performing predictive model for 3-year MALE, achieving the following performance metrics: AUROC = 0.88 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84-0.94); sensitivity, 88%; specificity, 84%; positive predictive value, 83%; and negative predictive value, 91% on test set data. On an independent validation cohort of patients with PAD, XGBoost attained an AUROC of 0.87 (95% CI, 0.82-0.90). The 10 most important predictors of 3-year MALE consisted of: (1) FABP3; (2) FABP4; (3) age; (4) NT-proBNP; (5) active smoking; (6) diabetes; (7) hypertension; (8) dyslipidemia; (9) coronary artery disease; and (10) sex. CONCLUSIONS: We built robust machine learning algorithms that accurately predict 3-year MALE in patients with PAD using demographic, clinical, and novel biomarker data. Our algorithms can support risk stratification of patients with PAD for additional vascular evaluation and early aggressive medical management, thereby improving outcomes. Further validation of our models for clinical implementation is warranted.

Inflammatory Biomarkers to Predict Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events in Patients with Carotid Artery Stenosis.

Background and Objectives: Inflammatory proteins and their prognostic value in patients with carotid artery stenosis (CAS) have not been adequately studied. Herein, we identified CAS-specific biomarkers from a large pool of inflammatory proteins and assessed the ability of these biomarkers to predict adverse events in individuals with CAS. Materials and Methods: Samples of blood were prospectively obtained from 336 individuals (290 with CAS and 46 without CAS). Plasma concentrations of 29 inflammatory proteins were determined at recruitment, and the patients were followed for 24 months. The outcome of interest was a major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE; composite of stroke, myocardial infarction, or death). The differences in plasma protein concentrations between patients with vs. without a 2-year MACE were determined using the independent t-test or Mann-Whitney U test to identify CAS-specific prognostic biomarkers. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards analyses with adjustment for baseline demographic and clinical characteristics were performed to assess the prognostic value of differentially expressed inflammatory proteins in predicting a 2-year MACE in patients with CAS. Results: The mean age of the cohort was 68.8 (SD 10.2) years and 39% were female. The plasma concentrations of two inflammatory proteins were significantly higher in individuals with a 2-year MACE relative to those without a 2-year MACE: IL-6 (5.07 (SD 4.66) vs. 3.36 (SD 4.04) pg/mL, p = 0.03) and CD163 (233.825 (SD 230.306) vs. 159.673 (SD 175.669) pg/mL, p = 0.033). Over a follow-up period of 2 years, individuals with elevated levels of IL-6 were more likely to develop MACE (HR 1.269 (95% CI 1.122-1.639), p = 0.042). Similarly, over a 2-year period, patients with high levels of CD163 were more likely to develop MACE (HR 1.413 (95% CI 1.022-1.954), p = 0.036). Conclusions: The plasma levels of inflammatory proteins IL-6 and CD163 are independently associated with adverse outcomes in individuals with CAS. These CAS-specific prognostic biomarkers may assist in the risk stratification of patients at an elevated risk of a MACE and subsequently guide further vascular evaluation, specialist referrals, and aggressive medical/surgical management, thereby improving outcomes for patients with CAS.

Fatty acid binding protein 4 has prognostic value in peripheral artery disease.

OBJECTIVE: Peripheral artery disease (PAD) remains undertreated, despite its association with major amputation and mortality. This is partly due to a lack of available disease biomarkers. The intracellular protein fatty acid binding protein 4 (FABP4) is implicated in diabetes, obesity, and metabolic syndrome. Given that these risk factors are strong contributors to vascular disease, we assessed the prognostic ability of FABP4 in predicting PAD-related adverse limb events. METHODS: This was a prospective case-control study with 3 years of follow-up. Baseline serum FABP4 concentrations were measured in patients with PAD (n = 569) and without PAD (n = 279). The primary outcome was major adverse limb event (MALE; defined as a composite of vascular intervention or major amputation). The secondary outcome was worsening PAD status (drop in ankle-brachial index ≥0.15). Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards analyses adjusted for baseline characteristics were conducted to assess the ability of FABP4 to predict MALE and worsening PAD status. RESULTS: Patients with PAD were older and more likely to have cardiovascular risk factors compared with those without PAD. Over the study period, MALE and worsening PAD status occurred in 162 (19%) and 92 (11%) patients, respectively. Higher FABP4 levels were significantly associated with 3-year MALE (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.19; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.27; adjusted HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.03-1.27; P = .022) and worsening PAD status (unadjusted HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.13-1.31; adjusted HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.12-1.28; P < .001). Three-year Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated that patients with high FABP4 levels had a decreased freedom from MALE (75% vs 88%; log rank = 22.6; P < .001), vascular intervention (77% vs 89%; log rank = 20.8; P < .001), and worsening PAD status (87% vs 91%; log rank = 6.16; P = .013). CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with higher serum concentrations of FABP4 are more likely to develop PAD-related adverse limb events. FABP4 has prognostic value in risk-stratifying patients for further vascular evaluation and management.

A novel Canadian multidisciplinary acute care pathway for people hospitalised with a diabetic foot ulcer.

This manuscript describes the implementation and initial evaluation of a novel Canadian acute care pathway for people with a diabetic foot ulcer (DFU). A multidisciplinary team developed and implemented an acute care pathway for patients with a DFU who presented to the emergency department (ED) and required hospitalisation at a tertiary care hospital in Canada. Processes of care, length of stay (LOS), and hospitalisation costs were considered through retrospective cohort study of all DFU hospitalizations from pathway launch in December 2018 to December 2020. There were 82 DFU-related hospital admissions through the ED of which 55 required invasive intervention: 28 (34.1%) minor amputations, 16 (19.5%) abscess drainage and debridement, 6 (7.3%) lower extremity revascularisations, 5 (6.1%) major amputations. Mean hospital LOS was 8.8 ± 4.9 days. Mean hospitalisation cost was $20 569 (±14 143): $25 901 (±15 965) when surgical intervention was required and $9279 (±7106) when it was not. LOS and hospitalisation costs compared favourably to historical data. An acute care DFU pathway can support the efficient evaluation and management of patients hospitalised with a DFU. A dedicated multidisciplinary DFU care team is a valuable resource for hospitals in Canada.

Trends in operative case volumes of Canadian vascular surgery trainees.

OBJECTIVE: Vascular surgery has evolved with increasing use of endovascular therapies and a decline in open surgery. The influence of these changes, in addition to a new vascular surgery training program introduced in 2012, on case volumes of vascular trainees is not known. We sought to evaluate trends in operative case volumes of Canadian vascular surgery trainees. METHODS: A survey was administered to graduates of the Canadian Royal College-accredited Vascular Fellowships (VFs) and Integrated Vascular Surgery Residency (IVSR) programs (2007-2019) to record cases performed during their final 2 years of training. Procedures of interest were open abdominal aortic aneurysm (oAAA) repair, open thoracic/thoracoabdominal aortic (oTAA/TAAA) repair, lower extremity bypass (LEB), carotid endarterectomy (CEA), lower extremity endovascular intervention (LEEI), and endovascular abdominal, advanced, and thoracic aortic repair (EVAR, aEVAR, and TEVAR). Case volumes were analyzed overall, and by graduation year, type of training program, and resident demographics. RESULTS: A total of 60 participants (10% female) from all the 10 Canadian training institutions responded (response rate, 63%). There was a declining trend in overall procedures performed since the introduction of IVSR in 2012 (median, 427 [interquartile range (IQR), 304-496] in 2007-2012 vs median, 342 [IQR, 279-405] in 2013-2019; P = .055), driven by a significant decline in open vascular surgery cases (median, 273 [IQR, 221-339] in 2007-2012 vs median, 156 [IQR, 128-181] in 2013-2019; P = .001). Case volumes of oAAA, LEB, and CEA declined by 44%, 40%, and 45%, respectively. Compared with vascular fellows, IVSR residents logged ∼2.5 times more aEVARs (median, 8; IQR, 2-11 vs median, 19; IQR, 8-27; P = .001) and ∼1.5 times more LEEIs (median, 60; IQR, 40-99 vs median, 93; IQR, 69-120; P = .018). Trainees were most confident (range, 90%-100%) in performing oAAA, EVAR, LEB, LEEI, and CEA after training, and least confident in performing oTAA/TAAA and aEVAR (20% and 49% confidence, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Operative case volumes of Canadian vascular surgery trainees since the introduction of IVSR program in 2012 have decreased, driven by declining exposure to open cases. However, trainees continue to receive adequate operative exposure to perform most standard vascular procedures confidently upon graduation.

The economic burden of inpatient diabetic foot ulcers in Toronto, Canada.

OBJECTIVE: Diabetic foot ulcer, which often leads to lower limb amputation, is a devastating complication of diabetes that is a major burden on patients and the healthcare system. The main objective of this study is to determine the economic burden of diabetic foot ulcer-related care. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter study of all diabetic foot ulcer patients admitted to general internal medicine wards at seven hospitals in the Greater Toronto Area, Canada from 2010 to 2015, using the GEMINI database. We compared the mean costs of care per patient for diabetic foot ulcer-related admissions, admissions for other diabetes-related complications, and admissions for the top five most costly general internal medicine conditions, using the Ontario Case Costing Initiative. Regression models were used to determine adjusted estimates of cost per patient. Propensity-score matched analyses were performed as sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Our study cohort comprised of 557 diabetic foot ulcer patients; 2939 non-diabetic foot ulcer diabetes patients; and 23,656 patients with the top 5 most costly general internal medicine conditions. Diabetic foot ulcer admissions incurred the highest mean cost per patient ($22,754) when compared to admissions with non-diabetic foot ulcer diabetes ($8,350) and the top five most costly conditions ($10,169). Using adjusted linear regression, diabetic foot ulcer admissions demonstrated a 49.6% greater mean cost of care than non-diabetic foot ulcer-related diabetes admissions (95% CI 1.14-1.58), and a 25.6% greater mean cost than the top five most costly conditions (95% CI 1.17-1.34). Propensity-scored matched analyses confirmed these results. CONCLUSION: Diabetic foot ulcer patients incur significantly higher costs of care when compared to admissions with non-diabetic foot ulcer-related diabetes patients, and the top five most costly general internal medicine conditions.

Altered coagulation profile in peripheral artery disease patients.

OBJECTIVE: Peripheral artery disease patients have been shown to be more susceptible to thrombotic events compared to non-peripheral artery disease patients. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the coagulation profile in peripheral artery disease patients with chronic limb threatening ischemia, moderate peripheral artery disease patients with claudication, and non-peripheral artery disease controls. METHODS: Chronic limb threatening ischemia patients were matched to peripheral artery disease patients with claudication and non-peripheral artery disease controls in a 1:1:1 ratio. Each patient had their cytokines, markers of thrombin generation, coagulation factors, natural anti-coagulants, fibrinolysis, and endothelial injury markers assessed. RESULTS: Markers of thrombin activation, thrombin Fragments F1 + 2 (Frag 1 + 2), and thrombin-anti-thrombin complex were found to be significantly elevated in all peripheral artery disease and chronic limb threatening ischemia patients relative to non-peripheral artery disease controls. Similarly, relative to non-peripheral artery disease controls, inflammatory markers including C-reactive protein, soluble platelet factor 4, and neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin were also found to be significantly upregulated in chronic limb threatening ischemia patients, but not in peripheral artery disease patients with claudication. Furthermore, our data demonstrated significant increases in markers of endothelial injury in chronic limb threatening ischemia patients relative to non-peripheral artery disease controls. Finally, decreases in natural anti-coagulants (protein C and protein S) and coagulation factors FIX, FXI, and FXII were also observed in chronic limb threatening ischemia patients when compared with non-peripheral artery disease controls. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that in relation to non-peripheral artery disease controls, chronic limb threatening ischemia patients are more hypercoagulable. However, peripheral artery disease patients with claudication appear to have similar levels of circulating procoagulant markers as non-peripheral artery disease patients. This may explain the increased risk of thrombotic events observed in chronic limb threatening ischemia patients.

Predicting Major Adverse Carotid Cerebrovascular Events in Patients with Carotid Stenosis: Integrating a Panel of Plasma Protein Biomarkers and Clinical Features-A Pilot Study.

Background: Carotid stenosis (CS) is an atherosclerotic disease of the carotid artery that can lead to devastating cardiovascular outcomes such as stroke, disability, and death. The currently available treatment for CS is medical management through risk reduction, including control of hypertension, diabetes, and/or hypercholesterolemia. Surgical interventions are currently suggested for patients with symptomatic disease with stenosis >50%, where patients have suffered from a carotid-related event such as a cerebrovascular accident, or asymptomatic disease with stenosis >60% if the long-term risk of death is <3%. There is a lack of current plasma protein biomarkers available to predict patients at risk of such adverse events. Methods: In this study, we investigated several growth factors and biomarkers of inflammation as potential biomarkers for adverse CS events such as stroke, need for surgical intervention, myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular-related death. In this pilot study, we use a support vector machine (SVM), random forest models, and the following four significantly elevated biomarkers: C-X-C Motif Chemokine Ligand 6 (CXCL6); Interleukin-2 (IL-2); Galectin-9; and angiopoietin-like protein (ANGPTL4). Results: Our SVM model best predicted carotid cerebrovascular events with an area under the curve (AUC) of >0.8 and an accuracy of 0.88, demonstrating strong prognostic capability. Conclusions: Our SVM model may be used for risk stratification of patients with CS to determine those who may benefit from surgical intervention.

The Identification and Evaluation of Interleukin-7 as a Myokine Biomarker for Peripheral Artery Disease Prognosis.

Background/Objectives: Myokines have been demonstrated to be associated with cardiovascular diseases; however, they have not been studied as biomarkers for peripheral artery disease (PAD). We identified interleukin-7 (IL-7) as a prognostic biomarker for PAD from a panel of myokines and developed predictive models for 2-year major adverse limb events (MALEs) using clinical features and plasma IL-7 levels. Methods: A prognostic study was conducted with a cohort of 476 patients (312 with PAD and 164 without PAD) that were recruited prospectively. Their plasma concentrations of five circulating myokines were measured at recruitment, and the patients were followed for two years. The outcome of interest was two-year MALEs (composite of major amputation, vascular intervention, or acute limb ischemia). Cox proportional hazards analysis was performed to identify IL-7 as the only myokine that was associated with 2-year MALEs. The data were randomly divided into training (70%) and test sets (30%). A random forest model was trained using clinical characteristics (demographics, comorbidities, and medications) and plasma IL-7 levels with 10-fold cross-validation. The primary model evaluation metric was the F1 score. The prognostic model was used to classify patients into low vs. high risk of developing adverse limb events based on the Youden Index. Freedom from MALEs over 2 years was compared between the risk-stratified groups using Cox proportional hazards analysis. Results: Two-year MALEs occurred in 28 (9%) of patients with PAD. IL-7 was the only myokine that was statistically significantly correlated with two-year MALE (HR 1.56 [95% CI 1.12-1.88], p = 0.007). For the prognosis of 2-year MALEs, our model achieved an F1 score of 0.829 using plasma IL-7 levels in combination with clinical features. Patients classified as high-risk by the predictive model were significantly more likely to develop MALEs over a 2-year period (HR 1.66 [95% CI 1.22-1.98], p = 0.006). Conclusions: From a panel of myokines, IL-7 was identified as a prognostic biomarker for PAD. Using a combination of clinical characteristics and plasma IL-7 levels, we propose an accurate predictive model for 2-year MALEs in patients with PAD. Our model may support PAD risk stratification, guiding clinical decisions on additional vascular evaluation, specialist referrals, and medical/surgical management, thereby improving outcomes.

A machine learning algorithm for peripheral artery disease prognosis using biomarker data.

Peripheral artery disease (PAD) biomarkers have been studied in isolation; however, an algorithm that considers a protein panel to inform PAD prognosis may improve predictive accuracy. Biomarker-based prediction models were developed and evaluated using a model development (n = 270) and prospective validation cohort (n = 277). Plasma concentrations of 37 proteins were measured at baseline and the patients were followed for 2 years. The primary outcome was 2-year major adverse limb event (MALE; composite of vascular intervention or major amputation). Of the 37 proteins tested, 6 were differentially expressed in patients with vs. without PAD (ADAMTS13, ICAM-1, ANGPTL3, Alpha 1-microglobulin, GDF15, and endostatin). Using 10-fold cross-validation, we developed a random forest machine learning model that accurately predicts 2-year MALE in a prospective validation cohort of PAD patients using a 6-protein panel (AUROC 0.84). This algorithm can support PAD risk stratification, informing clinical decisions on further vascular evaluation and management.

Angiogenesis-related proteins as biomarkers for peripheral artery disease.

Background: Angiogenesis plays an important role in peripheral artery disease (PAD) and angiogenesis-related proteins may act as prognostic biomarkers. This study assesses the potential for angiogenesis-related proteins to predict adverse events associated with PAD. Methods: This was a case-control study. Patients with PAD (n = 250) and without PAD (n = 125) provided blood samples and were followed prospectively for three years. Concentrations of 17 angiogenesis-related proteins were measured in plasma. The incidence of major adverse limb event (MALE), defined as a composite of major amputation or vascular intervention, was the primary outcome. Worsening PAD status, defined as a drop in ankle brachial index ≥ 0.15, was the secondary outcome. Multivariable regression adjusted for baseline characteristics was conducted to determine the prognostication value of angiogenesis-related proteins in predicting MALE. Findings: Relative to patients without PAD, 8 proteins related to angiogenesis were expressed differentially in PAD patients. Worsening PAD status and MALE were observed in 52 (14%) and 83 (22%) patients, respectively. Hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) was the most reliable predictor of MALE (adjusted HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.15-0.86). Compared to individuals with high HGF, patients with low HGF had a decreased three-year freedom from MALE [66% vs 88%, p = 0.001], major amputation [93% vs 98%, p = 0.023], vascular intervention [68% vs 88%, p = 0.001], and worsening PAD status [81% vs 91%, p = 0.006]. Interpretation: Measuring plasma levels of HGF in individuals with PAD can assist in identifying patients at elevated risk of adverse events related to PAD who may benefit from additional evaluation or treatment.

Validating fatty acid binding protein 3 as a diagnostic and prognostic biomarker for peripheral arterial disease: A three-year prospective follow-up study.

Background: Patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) often remain undiagnosed and therefore suboptimally managed. Here, we investigated the diagnostic and prognostic potential of fatty acid binding protein 3 (FABP3) in patients with PAD. Methods: In the discovery phase, 374 PAD and 184 non-PAD patients were recruited from vascular surgery ambulatory clinics at St. Michael's Hospital (Toronto, Ontario, Canada) between October 4, 2017 to October 29, 2018. The diagnostic ability of baseline FABP3 level was investigated through receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves to determine two cutoff points: 1) an exclusionary "rule out" cutoff point, and 2) a confirmatory "rule in" cutoff point. Next, these cutoff points were confirmed in the external validation phase using a separate cohort of 312 patients (180 PAD and 132 non-PAD) recruited from ambulatory vascular surgery clinics at St. Michael's Hospital (Canada) between November 6, 2018-July 30, 2019. Cox regression analyses were used to explore the independent association between FABP3 and major adverse limb events (MALE - defined as need for arterial revascularization or major amputation) and decrease in ankle-brachial index (ABI -defined as drop ≥0.15) during 3 years of follow-up. Findings: In the discovery phase, FABP3 levels were significantly elevated in patients with PAD compared to non-PAD patients. ROC analysis demonstrated that FABP3 had an AUC of 0.83 (95% CI: 0.81-0.86, p-value < 0.001). FABP3 exclusionary cutoff was <1.55 ng/ml (sensitivity = 96%; specificity = 40%), whereas FABP3 confirmatory cutoff was >3.55 ng/ml (sensitivity = 43%; specificity = 95%) - values that were confirmed in the external validation phase. Cox regression analysis demonstrated FABP3 to be an independent predictor of increase in MALE [HR = 1.14 (1.03-1.29); p-value = 0.010] and worsening PAD status (drop in ABI >0.15 [HR = 1.11 (1.02-1.19); p-value = 0.009]). Interpretation: Our findings suggested that FABP3 levels can be used as both a diagnostic and prognostic biomarker for PAD, and may facilitate risk stratification in select individuals for purposes of vascular evaluation or intensive medical management. Funding: Funding for this study was provided by the Bill and Vicky Blair Foundation.

Urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) can potentially predict vascular complications and reliably risk stratify patients with peripheral arterial disease.

Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) is expressed in atherosclerotic plaques and implicated in the development of cardiovascular diseases. Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is an atherosclerotic disease that often results in major cardiovascular events. This study aimed to prospectively examine the potential of urine NGAL (uNGAL) in predicting worsening PAD status and major adverse limb events (MALE). Baseline urine NGAL (uNGAL) and urine creatinine (uCr) concentrations were measured in PAD (n = 121) and non-PAD (n = 77) patients. Levels of uNGAL were normalized for urine creatinine (uNGAL/uCr). Outcomes included worsening PAD status, which was defined as a drop in ankle brachial index (ABI) > 0.15, and major adverse limb events (MALE), which was defined as a need for surgical revascularization or amputations. PAD patients had 2.30-fold higher levels of uNGAL/uCr [median (IQR) 31.8 (17.0-62.5) µg/g] in comparison to non-PAD patients [median (IQR) 73.3 (37.5-154.7) µg/g] (P = 0.011). Multivariate cox analysis showed that uNGAL/uCr levels were independently associated with predicting worsening PAD status and MALE outcomes. Cumulative survival analysis, over follow up period, demonstrated a direct correlation between elevated uNGAL/uCr levels and PAD disease progression and MALE outcomes. These data demonstrate an association between elevated uNGAL/uCr levels and worsening PAD disease status and MALE outcomes, indicating its potential for risk-stratification of PAD patients.

The Clinical Utility of D-Dimer and Prothrombin Fragment (F1+2) for Peripheral Artery Disease: A Prospective Study.

D-dimer and prothrombin fragment (F1+2) levels are elevated in patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD). We examined their prognostic potential in predicting decreasing ABI and major adverse limb events (MALE). A total of 206 patients were recruited from St. Michael's Hospital and followed for two years. Baseline plasma concentrations of D-dimer and F1+2 were recorded. Pearson's correlation was used to assess the correlation between the biomarkers and ABI at year 2. During follow-up, multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis was performed to investigate their role in predicting decreasing ABI (defined as change in ABI > −0.15) and MALE (defined as the need for arterial intervention or major limb amputation). Cumulative survival was assessed using Kaplan−Meier analysis. Baseline D-dimer and F1+2 levels were elevated in PAD patients (median (IQR) 1.34 (0.80−2.20) for D-dimer and 3.60 (2.30−4.74) for F1+2; p = 0.001) compared to non-PAD controls (median (IQR) 0.69 (0.29−1.20) for D-dimer and 1.84 (1.17−3.09) for F1+2; p = 0.001). Both markers were negatively correlated with ABI at year 2 (r = −0.231 for D-dimer, r = −0.49 for F1+2; p = 0.001). Cox analysis demonstrated F1+2 and D-dimer to be independent predictors of PAD status (HR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.15−1.54; p = 0.013 for D-dimer and HR = 1.28, 95% CI = 1.14−1.58; p = 0.019 for F1+2). Elevated baseline concentrations of D-dimer and F1+2 were associated with high incidence of decreasing ABI and 1- and 2-year event-free survival (62% and 86%, respectively). Combined analysis of D-dimer and F1+2 provides important prognostic information that facilitates risk stratification for future disease progression and MALE outcomes in patients with PAD.

Urinary Cystatin C Has Prognostic Value in Peripheral Artery Disease.

Despite its association with adverse outcomes, peripheral artery disease (PAD) remains undertreated. Cystatin C is elevated in patients with renal disease and may be a marker of cardiovascular disease. We examined the prognostic ability of urinary Cystatin C (uCystatinC) in predicting adverse PAD-related events. In this prospective case-control study, urine samples were collected from patients with PAD (n = 121) and without PAD (n = 77). The cohort was followed for 2 years. uCystatinC was normalized to urinary creatinine (uCr) (uCystatinC/uCr; µg/g). The primary outcome was major adverse limb event (MALE; composite of vascular intervention (open or endovascular) or major limb amputation). The secondary outcome was worsening PAD status (drop in ABI ≥ 0.15). Multivariable Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses were performed to assess the prognostic value of uCystatinC/uCr with regards to predicting MALE and worsening PAD status. Our analysis demonstrated that patients with PAD had significantly higher median [IQR] uCystatinC/uCr levels (24.9 µg/g [14.2-32.9] vs. 20.9 µg/g [11.1-27.8], p = 0.018). Worsening PAD status and MALE were observed in 39 (20%) and 34 (17%) patients, respectively. uCystatinC/uCr predicted worsening PAD status with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.78 (95% CI 1.12-2.83, p = 0.015), which persisted after controlling for baseline demographic and clinical characteristics (adjusted HR 1.79 [95% CI 1.11-2.87], p = 0.017). Patients with high uCystatinC/uCr had a lower 2-year freedom from MALE (77% vs. 89%, p = 0.025) and worsening PAD status (63% vs. 87%, p = 0.001). Based on these data, higher uCystatinC/uCr levels are associated with adverse PAD-related events and have prognostic value in risk-stratifying individuals for further diagnostic vascular evaluation or aggressive medical management.

Urinary Fatty Acid Binding Protein 3 Has Prognostic Value in Peripheral Artery Disease.

Background: Despite its significant association with limb loss and death, peripheral artery disease (PAD) remains underdiagnosed and undertreated. The current accepted gold-standard for PAD screening, the ankle brachial index (ABI), is limited by operator dependence, erroneous interpretation, and unreliability in patients with diabetes. Fatty acid binding protein 3 (FABP3) is an intracellular protein that becomes released into circulation and excreted into urine following skeletal muscle injury. We examined the prognostic ability of urinary FABP3 (uFABP3) in predicting adverse PAD-related events. Methods: In this prospective case-control study, urine samples were collected from patients with PAD (n = 142) and without PAD (n = 72). The cohort was followed for 2 years. uFABP3 was normalized to urinary creatinine (uCr) (uFABP3/uCr). The primary outcome was major adverse limb event (MALE; composite of vascular intervention [open or endovascular] or major limb amputation). The secondary outcome was worsening PAD status (drop in ABI≥0.15). Cox regression analyses with multivariable adjustment for baseline demographic and clinical variables were performed to assess the prognostic value of uFABP3/uCr with regards to predicting MALE and worsening PAD status. Results: Patients with PAD had significantly higher median [IQR] uFABP3/uCr levels (3.46 [2.45-6.90] vs. 2.61 [1.98-4.62], p = 0.001). MALE and worsening PAD status were observed in 21 (10%) and 28 (14%) patients, respectively. uFABP3/uCr predicted MALE and worsening PAD status with adjusted hazard ratios (HR) of 1.28 (1.16-1.41, p = 0.001) and 1.16 (1.02-1.27, p = 0.021), respectively. Patients with high uFABP3/uCr had a lower 2-year freedom from MALE (86 vs. 96%, p = 0.047) and worsening PAD status (78 vs. 99%, p = 0.001). There was good discriminatory ability for uFABP3/uCr in predicting the primary outcome of MALE, with an area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) of 0.78. Conclusions: Measuring uFABP3/uCr levels in patients with PAD can help identify those at high risk of adverse PAD-related events. This study highlights the prognostic value of uFABP3 in risk-stratifying individuals for further diagnostic vascular evaluation or aggressive medical management.

A Scoping Review of Foot Screening in Adults With Diabetes Mellitus Across Canada.

OBJECTIVES: Regular foot screening by a knowledgeable health-care provider is the cornerstone of ulcer and amputation prevention in people with diabetes. However, information on foot screening practices among Canadians with diabetes remains sparse. Therefore, we sought to synthesize available data on the frequency and approach to diabetic foot screening across Canada. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review by searching MEDLINE and Embase databases, alongside a grey literature search, for both English- and French-language reports. Data on patients' demographics, setting as well as the frequency of and approach to foot screening were abstracted. Title and abstract screening, full-text review and data abstraction were conducted in duplicate, with discrepancies resolved by a third reviewer. RESULTS: The search yielded 21 reports including information on diabetic foot screening practices in Canada. In a consolidated study sample of 13,388 Canadians with diabetes, 7,277 (53%) reported receiving a foot examination by a health-care provider at least once in the past year. The majority of reports did not provide information on the demographics of patients being screened or details on the approach to foot screening. No report mentioned the use of a triage algorithm applied to the results of foot screening. CONCLUSIONS: In this work, we identified the limited frequency and uncertain quality of diabetic foot screening across Canada. Further research should focus on better understanding disparities and barriers to regular diabetic foot screening.

Plasma complement component C2: a potential biomarker for predicting abdominal aortic aneurysm related complications.

Blood-based adjunctive measures that can reliably predict abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA)-related complications hold promise for mitigating the AAA disease burden. In this pilot study, we sought to evaluate the prognostic performance of complement factors in predicting AAA-related clinical outcomes. We recruited consecutive AAA patients (n = 75) and non-AAA patients (n = 75) presenting to St. Michael's Hospital. Plasma levels of complement proteins were assessed at baseline, as well as prospectively measured regularly over a period of 2 years. The primary outcome was the incidence of rapidly progressing AAA (i.e. aortic expansion), defined as change in AAA diameter by either 0.5 cm in 6 months, or 1 cm in 12 months. Secondary outcomes included incidence of major adverse aortic events (MAAE) and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). All study outcomes (AAA diameter, MACE and MAAE) were obtained during follow-up. Multivariable adjusted Cox regression analyses were performed to assess the prognostic value of plasma C2 levels in patients with AAA regarding rapid aortic expansion and MAAE and MACE. Event-free survival rates of both groups were also compared. Compared to non-AAA patients, patients with AAA demonstrated significantly higher plasma concentrations of C1q, C4, Factor B, Factor H and Factor D, and significantly lower plasma concentrations of C2, C3, and C4b (p = 0.001). After a median of 24 months from initial baseline measurements, C2 was determined as the strongest predictor of rapid aortic expansion (HR 0.10, p = 0.040), MAAE (HR 0.09, p = 0.001) and MACE (HR 0.14, p = 0.011). Based on the data from the survival analysis, higher levels of C2 at admission in patients with AAA predicted greater risk for rapid aortic expansion and MAAE (not MACE). Plasma C2 has the potential to be a biomarker for predicting rapid aortic expansion, MAAE, and the eventual need for an aortic intervention in AAA patients.

The prognostic capability of inflammatory proteins in predicting peripheral artery disease related adverse events.

Background: Levels of inflammatory proteins and their prognostic potential have been inadequately studied in patients with peripheral artery disease (PAD). In this study, we quantified and assessed the ability of inflammatory proteins in predicting PAD-related adverse events. Methods: In this prospective case-control study, blood samples were collected from patients without PAD (n = 202) and patients with PAD (n = 275). The PAD cohort was stratified by disease severity based on ankle brachial index (ABI): mild (n = 49), moderate (n = 164), and severe (n = 62). Patients were followed for 2 years. Plasma concentrations of 5 inflammatory proteins were measured: Alpha-2-Macroglobulin (A2M), Fetuin A, Alpha-1-Acid Glycoprotein (AGP), Serum Amyloid P component (SAP), and Adipsin. The primary outcome of our study was major adverse limb event (MALE), defined as the need for vascular intervention (open or endovascular revascularization) or major amputation. The secondary outcome was worsening PAD status, defined as a drop in ABI greater than or equal to 0.15 over the study period. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to assess the prognostic value of inflammatory proteins in predicting MALE, adjusting for confounding variables. Results: Compared to patients without PAD, three inflammatory proteins were differentially expressed in patients with PAD (AGP, Fetuin A, and SAP). The primary outcome (MALE) and secondary outcome (worsening PAD) status were noted in 69 (25%) and 60 (22%) patients, respectively. PAD-related adverse events occurred more frequently in severe PAD patients. Based on our data, the inflammatory protein AGP was the most reliable predictor of primary and secondary outcomes. On multivariable analysis, there was a significant association between AGP and MALE in all PAD disease states [mild: adjusted HR 1.13 (95% CI 1.05-1.47), moderate: adjusted HR 1.23 (95% CI 1.16-1.73), severe: adjusted HR 1.37 (95% CI 1.25-1.85)]. High levels of AGP were associated with lower 2-year MALE-free survival in all PAD disease states [mild (64% vs. 100%, p = 0.02), moderate (64% vs. 85%, p = 0.02), severe (55% vs. 88%, p = 0.02), all PAD (62% vs. 88%, p = 0.01)]. Conclusion: Levels of inflammatory protein AGP may help in risk stratifying PAD patients at high risk of MALE and worsening PAD status and subsequently facilitate further vascular evaluation and initiation of aggressive medical/surgical management.