Extreme risk spillover from uncertainty to carbon markets in China and the EU-A time varying copula approach.

Emissions Trading Schemes (ETS) rely on market signals like price stability and predictability, which are affected by the volatility of the financial market and the energy market. Risk is an important indicator of price stability. Using a time-varying copula method, this study analyzes the extreme risk impact of uncertainties (including Economic policy uncertainty (EPU), financial market (VIX) and energy market uncertainty (OVX)) on carbon markets in China and the European Union (EU). This paper also measures the asymmetry of that risk spillover; that is, we identify the impact of increasing and decreasing uncertainties on ETS market risk (stability). Our results show that increased uncertainty in economic policies, financial markets and energy markets will lead to a decline in ETS prices in China and the EU. Chinese and European ETS market risks are most significantly affected by energy market uncertainty changes, and least affected by economic uncertainty changes. Although European ETS markets are riskier than Chinese ETS markets, European ETS prices are more stable. Downside and upside analysis show that risk spillovers to Chinese and European carbon markets are significantly asymmetric and dynamic. Specifically, the downward volatility of uncertainty has a stronger risk impact on ETS than the upward volatility does. Our research provides a useful reference for policy makers to improve ETS market price stability and guide expectations, providing investors with a reliable method to predict market risks.

Using the Sustainable Development Capacity of Key Counties to Guide Rural Revitalization in China.

Counties are the basic unit for addressing unbalanced development in a region, revitalizing rural areas, and promoting the integrated development of urban and rural areas. Despite the importance of county-level research, few studies have been conducted research at such a small scale. To address this gap in knowledge, this study constructs an evaluation system to measure the county sustainable development capacity (CSDC) of counties in China, identify constraints to development, and provide policy suggestions to promote the counties' long-term stable development. Specifically, the CSDC indicator system was based on the regional theory of sustainable development and included economic aggregation capacity, social development capacity, and environmental carrying capacity. This framework was applied to 103 key counties to receive assistance in pursuing rural revitalization in 10 provinces in western China. The AHP-Entropy Weighting Method and TOPSIS model were employed to inform the scores of CSDC and its secondary indicators, and ArcGIS 10.8 was used to portray the spatial distribution of CSDC and to classify these key counties into categories that guided specific policy recommendations. The results demonstrate a high degree of unbalanced and inadequate development in these counties and that rural revitalization efforts can be targeted to increase the speed of development. It is crucial to follow the recommendations that conclude this paper to promote sustainable development in areas that have been lifted out of poverty and to revive rural areas.

Are Socialized Services of Agricultural Green Production Conducive to the Reduction in Fertilizer Input? Empirical Evidence from Rural China.

Reducing the use of chemical fertilizers in agricultural production is an inevitable requirement for achieving carbon neutrality and coping with global warming, and it is also an important measure for achieving green and sustainable agricultural development. Furthermore, the development of socialized services of green production provides a new approach to effectively reducing the use of fertilizers. Based on the survey data of 2202 rice growers in Jiangsu Province in 2021, this paper empirically analyzed the effects of socialized services of green production and social network on the reduction in fertilizer application by farmers. The results showed that both the socialized services of green production and social networks could significantly promote the reduction in fertilizer application by farmers. Social networks have a moderating effect between socialized services of green production and reduction in fertilizer application and can enhance the promotion of farmers' adoption of socialized services of green production to reduce the application of fertilizers. With consideration of the potential endogenous problems of the model and the robustness test by replacing the key explanatory variables and the explained variables, all of the results were stable. Therefore, it is emphasized that the government should cultivate the main body of agricultural socialized services, improve the socialized service system of green production, and promote the green development of agriculture by service scale operation. Equally, it is necessary to strengthen the construction of rural social networks for the exchange of fertilization experience and give full play to the positive role of social networks in the reduction in fertilizer application by farmers.