Species distributions and the recognition of risk in restoration planning: A case study of salmonid fishes.

One of the risks faced by habitat restoration practitioners is whether habitats included in restoration planning will be used by the target species or, conversely, whether habitats excluded from restoration planning would have benefited the target species. With the goal of providing a quantitative decision-making approach that represented varying levels of risk tolerance, we used multiple probability decision thresholds (PDT) to predict the range of occurrence for three anadromous fishes (Oncorhynchus spp.) in a watershed in southwestern Washington, USA. For each species, we compared the predicted range of occurrence to the distribution used for restoration planning and quantified the amount of habitat blocked by anthropogenic barriers. Coho salmon (O. kisutch) had the broadest predicted range of occurrence (3061.6-6357.9 km; 0.75-0.25 PDT), followed by steelhead trout (O. mykiss; 1828.8-2836.8 km) and chum salmon (O. keta; 1373.9-1629.1 km). For each species, the predicted range of occurrence was similar or greater than the distribution used for restoration planning, suggesting that the current plan may exclude habitats that would benefit each species. Coho salmon had the greatest percentage of habitat blocked by anthropogenic barriers, followed by steelhead trout and chum salmon, respectively. Modeling species distributions at multiple risk-tolerance scenarios acknowledges uncertainty in restoration planning and allows practitioners to weigh the ecological benefits and budgetary constraints when considering locations for restoration. To effectively communicate restoration science to support practitioners in decision-making, we developed an R Shiny application online user interface available at: https://shiny.wdfw-fish.us/ChehalisRiverBasinSalmonidRangeOfOccurence/.

Temporal instability of lake charr phenotypes: Synchronicity of growth rates and morphology linked to environmental variables?

Pathways through which phenotypic variation among individuals arise can be complex. One assumption often made in relation to intraspecific diversity is that the stability or predictability of the environment will interact with expression of the underlying phenotypic variation. To address biological complexity below the species level, we investigated variability across years in morphology and annual growth increments between and within two sympatric lake charr Salvelinus namaycush ecotypes in Rush Lake, USA. A rapid phenotypic shift in body and head shape was found within a decade. The magnitude and direction of the observed phenotypic change were consistent in both ecotypes, which suggests similar pathways caused the variation over time. Over the same time period, annual growth increments declined for both lake charr ecotypes and corresponded with a consistent phenotypic shift of each ecotype. Despite ecotype-specific annual growth changes in response to winter conditions, the observed annual growth shift for both ecotypes was linked, to some degree, with variation in the environment. Particularly, a declining trend in regional cloud cover was associated with an increase of early-stage (ages 1-3) annual growth for lake charr of Rush Lake. Underlying mechanisms causing changes in growth rates and constrained morphological modulation are not fully understood. An improved knowledge of the biology hidden within the expression of phenotypic variation promises to clarify our understanding of temporal morphological diversity and instability.