Regularized parametric survival modeling to improve risk prediction models.

We propose to combine the benefits of flexible parametric survival modeling and regularization to improve risk prediction modeling in the context of time-to-event data. Thereto, we introduce ridge, lasso, elastic net, and group lasso penalties for both log hazard and log cumulative hazard models. The log (cumulative) hazard in these models is represented by a flexible function of time that may depend on the covariates (i.e., covariate effects may be time-varying). We show that the optimization problem for the proposed models can be formulated as a convex optimization problem and provide a user-friendly R implementation for model fitting and penalty parameter selection based on cross-validation. Simulation study results show the advantage of regularization in terms of increased out-of-sample prediction accuracy and improved calibration and discrimination of predicted survival probabilities, especially when sample size was relatively small with respect to model complexity. An applied example illustrates the proposed methods. In summary, our work provides both a foundation for and an easily accessible implementation of regularized parametric survival modeling and suggests that it improves out-of-sample prediction performance.

A European-Japanese study on peach allergy: IgE to Pru p 7 associates with severity.

BACKGROUND: Pru p 3 and Pru p 7 have been implicated as risk factors for severe peach allergy. This study aimed to establish sensitization patterns to five peach components across Europe and in Japan, to explore their relation to pollen and foods and to predict symptom severity. METHODS: In twelve European (EuroPrevall project) and one Japanese outpatient clinic, a standardized clinical evaluation was conducted in 1231 patients who reported symptoms to peach and/or were sensitized to peach. Specific IgE against Pru p 1, 2, 3, 4 and 7 and against Cup s 7 was measured in 474 of them. Univariable and multivariable Lasso regression was applied to identify combinations of parameters predicting severity. RESULTS: Sensitization to Pru p 3 dominated in Southern Europe but was also quite common in Northern and Central Europe. Sensitization to Pru p 7 was low and variable in the European centers but very dominant in Japan. Severity could be predicted by a model combining age of onset of peach allergy, probable mugwort, Parietaria pollen and latex allergy, and sensitization to Japanese cedar pollen, Pru p 4 and Pru p 7 which resulted in an AUC of 0.73 (95% CI 0.73-0.74). Pru p 3 tended to be a risk factor in South Europe only. CONCLUSIONS: Pru p 7 was confirmed as a significant risk factor for severe peach allergy in Europe and Japan. Combining outcomes from clinical and demographic background with serology resulted in a model that could better predict severity than CRD alone.

Hospital utilisation and the costs associated with complications of ICD implantation in a contemporary primary prevention cohort.

INTRODUCTION: Implantation of an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) is standard care for primary prevention of sudden cardiac death. However, ICD-related complications are increasing as the population of ICD recipients grows. METHODS: ICD-related complications in a national DO-IT Registry cohort of 1442 primary prevention ICD patients were assessed in terms of additional use of hospital care resources and costs. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 28.7 months (IQR 25.2-33.7) one or more complications occurred in 13.5% of patients. A complication resulted in a surgical intervention in 53% of cases and required on average 3.65 additional hospital days. The additional hospital costs were €6,876 per complication or €8,110 per patient, to which clinical re-interventions and additional hospital days contributed most. Per category of complications, infections required most hospital utilisation and were most expensive at an average of €22,892. The mean costs were €5,800 for lead-related complications, €2,291 for pocket-related complications and €5,619 for complications due to other causes. We estimate that the total yearly incidence-based costs in the Netherlands for hospital management of ICD-related complications following ICD implantation for primary prevention are €2.7 million. CONCLUSION: Complications following ICD implantation are related to a substantial additional need for hospital resources. When performing cost-effectiveness analyses of ICD implantation, including the costs associated with complications, one should be aware that real-world complication rates may deviate from trial data. Considering the economic implications, strategies to reduce the incidence of complications are encouraged.

Electrocardiogram-based mortality prediction in patients with COVID-19 using machine learning.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The electrocardiogram (ECG) is frequently obtained in the work-up of COVID-19 patients. So far, no study has evaluated whether ECG-based machine learning models have added value to predict in-hospital mortality specifically in COVID-19 patients. METHODS: Using data from the CAPACITY-COVID registry, we studied 882 patients admitted with COVID-19 across seven hospitals in the Netherlands. Raw format 12-lead ECGs recorded within 72 h of admission were studied. With data from five hospitals (n = 634), three models were developed: (a) a logistic regression baseline model using age and sex, (b) a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) model using age, sex and human annotated ECG features, and (c) a pre-trained deep neural network (DNN) using age, sex and the raw ECG waveforms. Data from two hospitals (n = 248) was used for external validation. RESULTS: Performances for models a, b and c were comparable with an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.65-0.79), 0.76 (95% CI 0.68-0.82) and 0.77 (95% CI 0.70-0.83) respectively. Predictors of mortality in the LASSO model were age, low QRS voltage, ST depression, premature atrial complexes, sex, increased ventricular rate, and right bundle branch block. CONCLUSION: This study shows that the ECG-based prediction models could be helpful for the initial risk stratification of patients diagnosed with COVID-19, and that several ECG abnormalities are associated with in-hospital all-cause mortality of COVID-19 patients. Moreover, this proof-of-principle study shows that the use of pre-trained DNNs for ECG analysis does not underperform compared with time-consuming manual annotation of ECG features.

Novel endotypes in heart failure: effects on guideline-directed medical therapy.

Aims: We sought to determine subtypes of patients with heart failure (HF) with a distinct clinical profile and treatment response, using a wide range of biomarkers from various pathophysiological domains. Methods and results: We performed unsupervised cluster analysis using 92 established cardiovascular biomarkers to identify mutually exclusive subgroups (endotypes) of 1802 patients with HF and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) from the BIOSTAT-CHF project. We validated our findings in an independent cohort of 813 patients. Based on their biomarker profile, six endotypes were identified. Patients with endotype 1 were youngest, less symptomatic, had the lowest N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) levels and lowest risk for all-cause mortality or hospitalization for HF. Patients with endotype 4 had more severe symptoms and signs of HF, higher NT-proBNP levels and were at highest risk for all-cause mortality or hospitalization for HF [hazard ratio (HR) 1.4; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.1-1.8]. Patients with endotypes 2, 3, and 5 were better uptitrated to target doses of beta-blockers (P < 0.02 for all). In contrast to other endotypes, patients with endotype 5 derived no potential survival benefit from uptitration of angiotensin-converting enzyme-inhibitor/angiotensin-II receptor blocker and beta-blockers (Pinteraction <0.001). Patients with endotype 2 (HR 1.29; 95% CI 1.10-1.42) experienced possible harm from uptitration of beta-blockers in contrast to patients with endotype 4 and 6 that experienced benefit (Pinteraction for all <0.001). Results were strikingly similar in the independent validation cohort. Conclusion: Using unsupervised cluster analysis, solely based on biomarker profiles, six distinct endotypes were identified with remarkable differences in characteristics, clinical outcome, and response to uptitration of guideline directed medical therapy.

Validation of Reference Charts for Mid-Trimester Fetal Biometry.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of our study was to assess charts proposed for international use in the Intergrowth-21st Project. METHODS: Ultrasound data were collected from 43,923 healthy singleton pregnancies examined at 18-23 weeks of gestation in the Netherlands. Fetal measurements were converted into Z-scores using previous and current Dutch reference charts and Intergrowth charts. The distributions of the Z-scores were compared with the expected standard normal distribution. RESULTS: In the Dutch population, Intergrowth curves perform well for head circumference and biparietal diameter, but not for abdominal circumference (AC, Z- score = 0.43) and femur length (FL, Z-score = 0.26). Similar findings have been reported in other European countries. Compared with the population in the Intergrowth study, Dutch women are relatively tall (170 vs. 162 cm) and sturdy (67 vs. 61 kg) with a moderately high BMI. Maternal size, in particular maternal height, is positively correlated with birthweight. CONCLUSIONS: Whilst the establishment of the Intergrowth charts is an important step towards worldwide uniformity, for now locally derived charts still perform better, especially for AC and FL. Results from our validation study indicate that distinction between normal and pathologically small babies may be improved by taking maternal size into account.

PREVENTION-ACHD: PRospEctiVE study on implaNTable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy and suddeN cardiac death in Adults with Congenital Heart Disease; Rationale and Design.

BACKGROUND: Many adult congenital heart disease (ACHD) patients are at risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD). An implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) may prevent SCD, but the evidence for primary prevention indications is still unsatisfactory. STUDY DESIGN: PREVENTION-ACHD is a prospective study with which we aim to prospectively validate a new risk score model for primary prevention of SCD in ACHD patients, as well as the currently existing guideline recommendations. Patients are screened using a novel risk score to predict SCD as well as current ICD indications according to an international Consensus Statement. Patients are followed up for two years. The primary endpoint is the occurrence of SCD and sustained ventricular arrhythmias. The Study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03957824). CONCLUSION: PREVENTION-ACHD is the first prospective study on SCD in ACHD patients. In the light of a growing and aging population of patients with more severe congenital heart defects, more robust clinical evidence on primary prevention of SCD is urgently needed.

Component-resolved diagnosis and beyond: Multivariable regression models to predict severity of hazelnut allergy.

BACKGROUND: Component-resolved diagnosis (CRD) has revealed significant associations between IgE against individual allergens and severity of hazelnut allergy. Less attention has been given to combining them with clinical factors in predicting severity. AIM: To analyze associations between severity and sensitization patterns, patient characteristics and clinical history, and to develop models to improve predictive accuracy. METHODS: Patients reporting hazelnut allergy (n = 423) from 12 European cities were tested for IgE against individual hazelnut allergens. Symptoms (reported and during Double-blind placebo-controlled food challenge [DBPCFC]) were categorized in mild, moderate, and severe. Multiple regression models to predict severity were generated from clinical factors and sensitization patterns (CRD- and extract-based). Odds ratios (ORs) and areas under receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves (AUCs) were used to evaluate their predictive value. RESULTS: Cor a 9 and 14 were positively (OR 10.5 and 10.1, respectively), and Cor a 1 negatively (OR 0.14) associated with severe symptoms during DBPCFC, with AUCs of 0.70-073. Combining Cor a 1 and 9 improved this to 0.76. A model using a combination of atopic dermatitis (risk), pollen allergy (protection), IgE against Cor a 14 (risk) and walnut (risk) increased the AUC to 0.91. At 92% sensitivity, the specificity was 76.3%, and the positive and negative predictive values 62.2% and 95.7%, respectively. For reported symptoms, associations and generated models proved to be almost identical but weaker. CONCLUSION: A model combining CRD with clinical background and extract-based serology is superior to CRD alone in assessing the risk of severe reactions to hazelnut, particular in ruling out severe reactions.

Determinants and clinical outcome of uptitration of ACE-inhibitors and beta-blockers in patients with heart failure: a prospective European study.

INTRODUCTION: Despite clear guidelines recommendations, most patients with heart failure and reduced ejection-fraction (HFrEF) do not attain guideline-recommended target doses. We aimed to investigate characteristics and for treatment-indication-bias corrected clinical outcome of patients with HFrEF that did not reach recommended treatment doses of ACE-inhibitors/Angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs) and/or beta-blockers. METHODS AND RESULTS: BIOSTAT-CHF was specifically designed to study uptitration of ACE-inhibitors/ARBs and/or beta-blockers in 2516 heart failure patients from 69 centres in 11 European countries who were selected if they were suboptimally treated while initiation or uptitration was anticipated and encouraged. Patients who died during the uptitration period (n = 151) and patients with a LVEF > 40% (n = 242) were excluded. Median follow up was 21 months. We studied 2100 HFrEF patients (76% male; mean age 68 ±12), of which 22% achieved the recommended treatment dose for ACE-inhibitor/ARB and 12% of beta-blocker. There were marked differences between European countries. Reaching <50% of the recommended ACE-inhibitor/ARB and beta-blocker dose was associated with an increased risk of death and/or heart failure hospitalization. Patients reaching 50-99% of the recommended ACE-inhibitor/ARB and/or beta-blocker dose had comparable risk of death and/or heart failure hospitalization to those reaching ≥100%. Patients not reaching recommended dose because of symptoms, side effects and non-cardiac organ dysfunction had the highest mortality rate (for ACE-inhibitor/ARB: HR 1.72; 95% CI 1.43-2.01; for beta-blocker: HR 1.70; 95% CI 1.36-2.05). CONCLUSION: Patients with HFrEF who were treated with less than 50% of recommended dose of ACE-inhibitors/ARBs and beta-blockers seemed to have a greater risk of death and/or heart failure hospitalization compared with patients reaching ≥100%.

The Relation Between Inflation in Type-I and Type-II Error Rate and Population Divergence in Genome-Wide Association Analysis of Multi-Ethnic Populations.

Population divergence impacts the degree of population stratification in Genome Wide Association Studies. We aim to: (i) investigate type-I error rate as a function of population divergence (FST) in multi-ethnic (admixed) populations; (ii) evaluate the statistical power and effect size estimates; and (iii) investigate the impact of population stratification on the results of gene-based analyses. Quantitative phenotypes were simulated. Type-I error rate was investigated for Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) with varying levels of FST between the ancestral European and African populations. Type-II error rate was investigated for a SNP characterized by a high value of FST. In all tests, genomic MDS components were included to correct for population stratification. Type-I and type-II error rate was adequately controlled in a population that included two distinct ethnic populations but not in admixed samples. Statistical power was reduced in the admixed samples. Gene-based tests showed no residual inflation in type-I error rate.

Dutch outcome in implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy (DO-IT): registry design and baseline characteristics of a prospective observational cohort study to predict appropriate indication for implantable cardioverter-defibrillator.

BACKGROUND: Implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs) are widely used for the prevention of sudden cardiac death. At present, both clinical benefit and cost-effectiveness of ICD therapy in primary prevention patients are topics of discussion, as only a minority of these patients will eventually receive appropriate ICD therapy. METHODS/DESIGN: The DO-IT Registry is a nationwide prospective cohort with a target enrolment of 1,500 primary prevention ICD patients with reduced left ventricular function in a setting of structural heart disease. The primary outcome measures are death and appropriate ICD therapy for ventricular tachyarrhythmias. Secondary outcome measures are inappropriate ICD therapy, death of any cause, hospitalisation for ICD related complications and for cardiovascular reasons. As of December 2016, data on demographic, clinical, and ICD characteristics of 1,468 patients have been collected. Follow-up will continue up to 24 months after inclusion of the last patient. During follow-up, clinical and ICD data are collected based on the normal follow-up of these patients, assuming ICD interrogations take place every six months and clinical follow-up is once a year. At baseline, the mean age was 66 (standard deviation [SD] 10) years and 27% were women. CONCLUSION: The DO-IT Registry represents a real-world nationwide cohort of patients receiving ICDs for primary prevention of sudden cardiac death with reduced left ventricular function in a setting of structural heart disease. The registry investigates the efficacy of the current practice and aims to develop prediction rules to identify subgroups who will not (sufficiently) benefit from ICD implantation and to provide results regarding costs and budget impact of targeted supply of primary preventions ICDs.

Detection of Airway Colonization by Aspergillus fumigatus by Use of Electronic Nose Technology in Patients with Cystic Fibrosis.

Currently, there is no noninvasive test that can reliably diagnose early invasive pulmonary aspergillosis (IA). An electronic nose (eNose) can discriminate various lung diseases through an analysis of exhaled volatile organic compounds. We recently published a proof-of-principle study showing that patients with prolonged chemotherapy-induced neutropenia and IA have a distinct exhaled breath profile (or breathprint) that can be discriminated with an eNose. An eNose is cheap and noninvasive, and it yields results within minutes. We determined whether Aspergillus fumigatus colonization may also be detected with an eNose in cystic fibrosis (CF) patients. Exhaled breath samples of 27 CF patients were analyzed with a Cyranose 320. Culture of sputum samples defined the A. fumigatus colonization status. eNose data were classified using canonical discriminant analysis after principal component reduction. Our primary outcome was cross-validated accuracy, defined as the percentage of correctly classified subjects using the leave-one-out method. The P value was calculated by the generation of 100,000 random alternative classifications. Nine of the 27 subjects were colonized by A. fumigatus. In total, 3 subjects were misclassified, resulting in a cross-validated accuracy of the Cyranose detecting IA of 89% (P = 0.004; sensitivity, 78%; specificity, 94%). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.89. The results indicate that A. fumigatus colonization leads to a distinctive breathprint in CF patients. The present proof-of-concept data merit external validation and monitoring studies.

Exposure to organophosphate and polybrominated diphenyl ether flame retardants via indoor dust and childhood asthma.

Although the ubiquitous detection of polybrominated diphenyl ether (PBDE) and organophosphate flame retardants (PFRs) in indoor dust has raised health concerns, only very few epidemiological studies have assessed their impact on human health. Inhalation of dust is one of the exposure routes of FRs, especially in children and can be hazardous for the respiratory health. Moreover, PFRs are structurally similar to organophosphate pesticides, which have been associated with allergic asthma. Thus, we investigated whether the concentrations of PFRs and PBDEs in indoor dust are associated with the development of childhood asthma. We selected 110 children who developed asthma at 4 or at 8 years old and 110 matched controls from a large prospective birth cohort (BAMSE - Barn, Allergy, Milieu Stockholm Epidemiology). We analyzed the concentrations of 7 PFRs and 21 PBDEs in dust collected around 2 months after birth from the mother's mattress. The abundance rank in dust was as follows: TBOEP⪢TPHP>mmp-TMPP>EHDPHP~TDCIPP>TCEP~TCIPP~BDE-209⪢BDE-99>BDE-47>BDE-153>BDE-183>BDE-100. There was no positive association between the FRs in mattress dust and the development of childhood asthma. In contrast, dust collected from mattresses of the mothers of children who would develop asthma contained significant lower levels of TPHP and mmp-TMPP. This study provides data on a wide range of PFRs and PBDEs in dust samples and development of asthma in children.

The effect of losartan therapy on ventricular function in Marfan patients with haploinsufficient or dominant negative FBN1 mutations.

BACKGROUND: Mild biventricular dysfunction is often present in patients with Marfan syndrome. Losartan has been shown to reduce aortic dilatation in patients with Marfan syndrome. This study assesses the effect of losartan on ventricular volume and function in genetically classified subgroups of asymptomatic Marfan patients without significant valvular regurgitation. METHODS: In this predefined substudy of the COMPARE study, Marfan patients were classified based on the effect of their FBN1 mutation on fibrillin-1 protein, categorised as haploinsufficient or dominant negative. Patients were randomised to a daily dose of losartan 100 mg or no additional treatment. Ventricular volumes and function were measured by magnetic resonance imaging at baseline and after 3 years of follow-up. RESULTS: Changes in biventricular dimensions were assessed in 163 Marfan patients (48 % female; mean age 38 ± 13 years). In patients with a haploinsufficient FBN1 mutation (n = 43), losartan therapy (n = 19) increased both biventricular end diastolic volume (EDV) and stroke volume (SV) when compared with no additional losartan (n = 24): left ventricular EDV: 9 ± 26 ml vs. -8 ± 24 ml, p = 0.035 and right ventricular EDV 12 ± 23 ml vs. -18 ± 24 ml; p < 0.001 and for left ventricle SV: 6 ± 16 ml vs. -8 ± 17 ml; p = 0.009 and right ventricle SV: 8 ± 16 ml vs. -7 ± 19 ml; p = 0.009, respectively. No effect was observed in patients with a dominant negative FBN1 mutation (n = 92), or without an FBN1 mutation (n = 28). CONCLUSION: Losartan therapy in haploinsufficient Marfan patients increases biventricular end diastolic volume and stroke volume, furthermore, losartan also appears to ameliorate biventricular filling properties.

A mixture model for the analysis of data derived from record linkage.

Combining information from two data sources depends on finding records that belong to the same individual (matches). Sometimes, unique identifiers per individual are not available, and we have to rely on partially identifying variables that are registered in both data sources. A risk of relying on these variables is that some records from both datasets are wrongly linked to each other, which introduces bias in further regression analyses. In this paper, we propose a mixture model where we treat the indicator whether records belong to the same individual as missing. Each pair of records from both datasets contributes independently to a pairwise pseudo-likelihood, which we maximize with an expectation-maximization algorithm. Each part of the pseudo-likelihood is parameterized by the appropriate (parametric) density function. Moreover, some structures of the data allow for simplifying assumptions, which makes the pseudo-likelihood considerably easier to parameterize. Because the optimization requires a product over all combinations of records from both datasets, we suggest a procedure that summarizes information from highly unlikely matches. With simulations, we showed that the new approach produces accurate estimates in different linkage scenarios. Moreover, the estimator remained accurate in scenarios where previously proposed analysis approaches give biased results. We applied the method to estimation of the association between pregnancy duration of the first and second born children from the same mother from a register without mother identifier.

The revised role of TGF-ß in aortic aneurysms in Marfan syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Recently, we demonstrated that losartan reduced the aortic root dilatation rate (AoDR) in adults with Marfan syndrome (MFS); however, responsiveness was diverse. The aim was to determine the role of transforming growth factor-ß (TGF-ß) as therapeutic biomarker for effectiveness of losartan on AoDR. METHODS: Baseline plasma TGF-ß levels of 22 healthy controls and 99 MFS patients, and TGF-ß levels after 1 month of losartan treatment in 42 MFS patients were measured. AoDR was assessed by magnetic resonance imaging at baseline and after 3 years of follow-up. RESULTS: Patients with MFS had higher TGF-ß levels compared with healthy controls (121 pg/ml versus 54 pg/mL, p = 0.006). After 1 month of therapy, losartan normalised the TGF-ß level in 15 patients (36%); the other 27 patients (64%) showed a significant increase of TGF-ß. After 3 years of losartan therapy, patients with a decrease in TGF-ß had significantly higher AoDR compared with patients with increased TGF-ß (1.5 mm/3 years versus 0.5 mm/3 years, p = 0.04). Patients showing a decrease in TGF-ß after losartan therapy had significantly elevated baseline TGF-ß levels compared with patients with increased TGF-ß (189 pg/ml versus 94 pg/ml, p = 0.05). CONCLUSION: Patients responding to losartan therapy with a reduction of the plasma TGF-ß level had higher baseline TGF-ß levels and a higher AoDR. Most likely, TGF-ß levels may be considered to be a readout of the disease state of the aorta. We propose that increased angiotensin II is the initiator of aorta dilatation and is responsible for increased TGF-ß levels in MFS. The concept of TGF-ß as initiator of aortic dilatation in MFS patients should be nuanced.

HBsAg loss in patients treated with peginterferon alfa-2a and adefovir is associated with SLC16A9 gene variation and lower plasma carnitine levels.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Achievement of HBsAg loss remains the hallmark of chronic hepatitis B treatment. In order to identify host factors contributing to treatment-induced HBsAg loss, we performed a genome-wide screen of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and studied its immunological consequence. METHODS: Chronic hepatitis B patients (40 HBeAg-positive and 44 HBeAg-negative) treated with peginterferon alfa-2a and adefovir were genotyped for 999,091 SNPs, which were associated with HBsAg loss at week 96 (n = 9). Plasma carnitine levels were measured by tandem-mass spectrometry, and the effect of carnitine on the proliferative capacity of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-specific and non-specific CD8 T cells was studied in vitro. RESULTS: One polymorphism, rs12356193 located in the SLC16A9 gene, was genome-wide significantly associated with HBsAg loss at week 96 (p = 1.84 × 10(-8)). The previously reported association of rs12356193 with lower carnitine levels was confirmed in our cohort, and baseline carnitine levels were lower in patients with HBsAg loss compared to patients with HBsAg persistence (p = 0.02). Furthermore, we demonstrated that carnitine suppressed HBV-specific CD8 T cell proliferation. CONCLUSIONS: In chronic hepatitis B patients treated with peginterferon and adefovir, we identified strong associations of SLC16A9 gene variation and carnitine levels with HBsAg loss. Our results further suggest that a lower baseline plasma carnitine level increases the proliferative capacity of CD8 T cells, making patients more susceptible to the immunological effect of this treatment. These novel findings may provide new insight into factors involved in treatment-induced HBsAg loss, and play a role in the prediction of treatment outcome.

Telomere length loss due to smoking and metabolic traits.

OBJECTIVES: Human age-dependent telomere attrition and telomere shortening are associated with several age-associated diseases and poorer overall survival. The aim of this study was to determine longitudinal leucocyte telomere length dynamics and identify factors associated with temporal changes in telomere length. DESIGN AND METHODS: Leucocyte telomere length was measured by quantitative polymerase chain reaction in 8074 participants from the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease (PREVEND) study, an ongoing community-based prospective cohort study initiated in 1997. Follow-up data were available at two time-points up to 2007. Leucocyte telomere length was measured, on between one and three separate occasions, in a total of 16 783 DNA samples. Multilevel growth models were created to identify the factors that influence leucocyte telomere dynamics. RESULTS: We observed an average attrition rate of 0.47 ± 0.16 relative telomere length units (RTLUs) per year in the study population aged 48 (range 39-60) years at baseline. Annual telomere attrition rate increased with age (P < 0.001) and was faster on average in men than in women (P for interaction 0.043). The major independent factors determining telomere attrition rate were active smoking (approximately tripled the loss of RTLU per year, P < 0.0001) and multiple traits of the metabolic syndrome (waist-hip ratio, P = 0.007; blood glucose level, P = 0.045, and HDL cholesterol level, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Smoking and variables linked to the metabolic syndrome are modifiable lifestyle factors that accelerate telomere attrition in humans. The higher rate of cellular ageing may mediate the link between smoking and the metabolic syndrome to an increased risk of several age-associated diseases.

Gene expression profiling of laser microdissected airway smooth muscle tissue in asthma and atopy.

BACKGROUND: Asthma and atopy share common characteristics including type 2 helper-T-cell-mediated inflammation. However, only asthma is associated with variable airways obstruction. The complex cellular and molecular pathways distinguishing asthma and atopy can now be captured by transcriptomic analysis (RNA-Seq). We hypothesized that the transcriptomic profile of airway smooth muscle (ASM) distinguishes atopic asthma from atopic healthy controls. First, we compared the ASM transcriptomic profiles of endobronchial biopsies between glucocorticoid-free, atopic asthma patients, and atopic and nonatopic healthy controls. Second, we investigated the association between ASM transcriptomic profiles and airway function. METHODS: Twelve asthma patients and 12 control subjects (six atopic, six nonatopic) underwent bronchoscopy. RNA of laser-dissected ASM from 96 bronchial biopsy specimens was sequenced with Roche GS FLX. Gene networks were identified using Ingenuity Pathway Analysis. RNA-Seq reads were assumed to follow a negative binomial distribution. With the current sample size, the estimated false discovery rate was approximately 1%. RESULTS: One hundred and seventy four ASM genes were differentially expressed between asthma patients and atopic controls, 108 between asthma patients and nonatopic controls, and 135 between atopic and nonatopic controls. A set of eight genes discriminated asthma patients from nonasthmatic controls, irrespective of atopy. Four of these genes (RPTOR, VANGL1, FAM129A, LEPREL1) were associated with airway hyper-responsiveness (P < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Airway smooth muscle from asthma patients can be distinguished from that of atopic and nonatopic control subjects by a specific gene expression profile, which is associated with airway hyper-responsiveness.

Correcting for the dependent competing risk of treatment using inverse probability of censoring weighting and copulas in the estimation of natural conception chances.

When estimating the probability of natural conception from observational data on couples with an unfulfilled child wish, the start of assisted reproductive therapy (ART) is a competing event that cannot be assumed to be independent of natural conception. In clinical practice, interest lies in the probability of natural conception in the absence of ART, as this probability determines the need for therapy. We thus want to estimate the marginal cumulative pregnancy distribution. Without assumptions on the dependence structure between the two competing events, this marginal distribution is not identifiable. We first use inverse probability of censoring weighting assuming that the factors influencing the choice to start ART are known. Then, we parameterize the event distributions for conception and for start of ART and use copulas to account for the dependency between both events. By using these two ways of correcting for the dependent risk of treatment, we obtain a plausible estimation region for the cumulative pregnancy curve and for the prognostic effect of tubal tests.