When is fertility too low or too high? Population policy preferences of demographers around the world.

When does fertility in a country become so low or so high that a government needs to intervene? This paper sheds light on this population policy question, based on a worldwide survey among demographers. We examine how professionals' policy preferences regarding fertility levels are affected by their views on the impacts of population growth/decline and by fertility in their country of residence. The median respondent suggests intervention once fertility goes below 1.4 children or above 3.0. Three results stand out: first, demographers who are concerned about the carrying capacity of the earth are more willing to intervene than those who are less concerned. Second, the context of decision-making matters: experts living in high-fertility countries are more set on intervention than those living in low-fertility countries, but their threshold fertility level is also higher. Third, political orientation matters: right-leaning demographers are more set on government intervention than left-leaning demographers.

Explaining emigration intentions and behaviour in the Netherlands, 2005-10.

We examined the emigration intentions of native-born Dutch residents and their subsequent emigration behaviour from 2005 to 2010. Data were collected from two surveys on emigration intentions, one conducted locally and one nationally. A number of novel results stand out. First, intentions were good predictors of future emigration: 34 per cent of those who had stated an intention to emigrate actually emigrated within the 5-year follow-up period. Second, the personality of potential migrants and their discontent with the quality of the public domain in the Netherlands (e.g., crowded space and inadequate access to unspoilt nature, pollution, crime level, mentality of people) were the strongest contributors to the motivation to move abroad. Third, the main difference between movers and those who stated intentions to emigrate but had not (yet) followed through was their state of health: healthy people were more likely to follow through with their migration intentions than those in poorer health.

Trust and Distrust in Pension Providers in Times of Decline and Reform: Analysis of Survey Data 2004-2021.

Trust in pension providers by participants is essential because pension providers try to fulfill their pension promises in a fundamentally uncertain world. Reforms and crises are therefore the ultimate testing ground for pension trust. In this paper we estimate with repeated cross-sectional survey data how trust and distrust in Dutch pension funds and the government have evolved over the period 2004-2021 and what the impact of financial stability on trust in these two institutions has been. Financial stability of pension funds, measured by their funding ratio, is shown to affect trust positively, but it does not decrease distrust significantly. Based on the estimation results, achieving a situation where the majority of the adult population trusts pension funds is likely to be attained at funding ratios of 115 or higher. Financial stability of government (measured by government debt/GDP ratio) does not affect either trust or distrust levels. Underlying drivers of distrust and trust such as personal characteristics are also notable: self-employed are more prone to distrust pension funds than employees. Women are more than men likely to take a neutral position.

Population and Climate Change: Consensus and Dissensus among Demographers.

What role does population play in thinking about the problem of climate change and some of its solutions? In a survey conducted between February and April 2020, we asked European demographers to state their views on the relationship between climate change and population developments, and asked them to rate their concern about climate change and other socio-demographic issues. We found that climate change is at the top of the list of demographers' concerns, but that their sense of urgency with respect to taking action to redress global warming is not matched by their belief that population policy can make a crucial difference in reducing CO2 emissions: demographers are highly divided on the question whether the global population size should be reduced to lower CO2 emissions, as well as on the question whether family planning is an effective policy instrument.

Employees' Emotional, Cognitive, and Behavioral Responses to Increasing Statutory Retirement Ages.

Increasing statutory retirement ages around the world are forcing employees to prolong their working lives. We study the different ways in which mid- and late-career workers respond to such changes. We distinguish between negative emotions about working longer, cognitive engagement with prolonged employment, and proactive behavior to facilitate longer working lives. We analyze data from 1,351 employees aged 40-66 from the Netherlands. We estimate a structural equation model to identify in which ways experiences of age discrimination, accessibility of accommodative HR facilities, and social norms in the workers' social networks are related to the three different types of responses. Results show that when employees do not experience age discrimination, when their employer offers easily accessible accommodative HR facilities, and the social norms support prolonged employment, employees have fewer negative emotional reactions and are more likely to behaviorally respond to facilitate longer working lives. When these contexts are misaligned, the reverse is generally found. We also find socioeconomic differences in the ways employees respond to the prospect of prolonged employment. This study shows the importance of supportive contexts at different levels-societally, in organizations, and in individuals' own lives-for policy changes such as increasing statutory retirement ages to be effective. Different responses between different socioeconomic groups may lead to growing long-term inequality.

The COVID-19 Pandemic: Lessons for Financially Fragile and Aging Societies.

The current COVID-19 crisis teaches organizations and households harsh lessons about the necessity of having buffers, to deal with the consequences of the COVID-19 virus. The financial fragility of households and the rising proportion of people becoming obese calls for intensified efforts, both by individuals and employers to create financial buffers and keep on investing in health. The financial fragility of organizations is a wake-up call that a short-term focus on efficiency can be counterproductive and may overturn the efforts to start working longer.

What We Need to Know About Retirement: Pressing Issues for the Coming Decade.

The current landscape of retirement is changing dramatically as population aging becomes increasingly visible. This review of pressing retirement issues advocates research on (a) changing meanings of retirement, (b) impact of technology, (c) the role of housing in retirement, (d) human resource strategies, (e) adjustment to changing retirement policies, (f) the pension industry, and (g) the role of ethnic diversity in retirement.

Recharging or Retiring Older Workers? Uncovering the Age-Based Strategies of European Employers.

PURPOSE OF THE STUDY: We offer an empirically based taxonomy of the human resource policies of European employers in relation to older workers. In particular, 3 age-based strategies are discussed and analyzed in a simultaneous fashion: a focus on exit through retirement, workplace accommodation measures, and employee development measures. DESIGN AND METHODS: A sample of 3,638 organizations in 6 European countries (Denmark, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, Poland, and Sweden) is analyzed to discover which of the 7 antecedents investigated herein are associated with the implementation of these human resource strategies. The key predictors are the proportion of older workers (aged 50 or older), organization size, seniority-based compensation, labor union involvement, training requirement, recruitment problems, and knowledge intensity. Structural equation modeling is used to assess whether these predictors are associated with the 3 latent factors. RESULTS: The 7 key predictors of the 3 strategies show that these strategies are used simultaneously, but that the employers clearly use exit policies more intensively than they use development measures. Organizations thus use a dual approach to managing the employment of older workers. They may sort older workers either upwards (e.g., by encouraging career development and training) or outwards (by promoting early retirement). The same division can be detected when examining the effects of labor union involvement and seniority-based wages. When recruitment problems are encountered, more effort is directed toward accommodation and investment. IMPLICATIONS: Despite the warnings of policymakers about the possible consequences of an aging population, European employers are not yet formulating strategies that promote active aging, often still opting for the easy way out, via exit strategies.

Comparing the effects of defaults in organ donation systems.

The ability of patients in many parts of the world to benefit from transplantation is limited by growing shortages of transplantable organs. The choice architecture of donation systems is said to play a pivotal role in explaining this gap. In this paper we examine the question how different defaults affect the decision to register as organ donor. Three defaults in organ donation systems are compared: mandated choice, presumed consent and explicit consent. Hypothetical choices from a national survey of 2069 respondents in May 2011 in the Netherlands - a country with an explicit consent system - suggests that mandated choice and presumed consent are more effective at generating registered donors than explicit consent.

Productivity of older workers: perceptions of employers and employees.

What determines the perceived productivity of the older worker and how does this perception compare to the perception of the productivity of the younger worker? In this study we present evidence based on data from Dutch employers and employees. Productivity perceptions are affected by one's age and one's position in the hierarchy. The young favor the young, the old favor the old, and employers value the productivity of workers less than employees do. However, there are also remarkable similarities across employers and employees. By distinguishing the various dimensions that underlie the productivity of younger and older workers, we tested whether soft qualities and abilities-e.g., reliability and commitment-are just as important as hard qualities-cognitive and physically based skills-in the eyes of both employers and employees. It appears that both employers and employees, young and old, view hard skills as far more important than soft skills.

What drives retirement income worries in Europe? A multilevel analysis.

Nations in Europe have been developing rapidly since the formation of the European Union (EU), not only socially and demographically, but economically as well. One question a number of countries will face during this period of structural transition will be how (and how well) they are able to support their citizens in old age. A related question involves whether individuals worry about their financial future in retirement, and the extent to which they take active steps to save in order to ensure an adequate standard of living. In this study, we analyze data from the third wave of the European Social Survey, which represents 21,416 working adults from 23 countries in Europe. We used multilevel modeling to focus on the explanatory factors that underlie individual and country-level effects in worry about future retirement income and saving behavior. Findings suggest that once individual-level dimensions are taken into account, country-level predictors explain appreciable variance in worry, but not saving practices. Moreover, we found that retirement income worries are more severe in countries with a strong projected increase in future population aging and a high level of income inequality. Finally, pension age reforms were not found to appreciably affect retirement income worries. Results of the study are discussed in terms of not only the individual difference dimensions that precipitate future income worry and saving, but also ways in which macro-level policy initiatives could potentially alleviate some of the worries of European citizens.

Aging and financial planning for retirement: interdisciplinary influences viewed through a cross-cultural lens.

Current theoretical models support the existence of interactions between the individual and socio-environmental forces when it comes to the formation and enactment of life plans (Friedman & Scholnick, 1997; Shanahan & Elder, 2002). In this investigation, we examine the social, economic, and psychological forces that impact financial planning for retirement. The collective force of these three broad sets of influences was examined from developmental and cross-cultural perspectives, among respondents from two countries with very different retirement financing systems. Participants were 419 American and 556 Dutch working adults, 25-64 years of age. Path analysis models were created to examine differences in planning associated with age and national origin. Compared to younger individuals, older respondents in both countries were more involved in nearly all aspects of the financial planning process. Differences across cultures were also observed in the social support mechanisms that underlie planning and the impact economic forces have on perceptions of saving adequacy. The discussion focuses on the value of developing interdisciplinary theoretical models of planning, and how such models can inform the development of savings-oriented intervention and public policy initiatives.

What drives donor funding in population assistance programs? Evidence from OECD countries.

The 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) established goals for the expansion of population assistance. To date, the financial promises made by donor countries in 1994 have not been met. To unravel the gap between ambitions and contributions, we use panel estimation methods to see what lies behind the level of donor contributions and the sharing of burdens across the various categories of population and HIV/AIDS assistance in 21 donor countries for the years 1996-2002. Contributions by donors depend heavily on the economic wealth and subjective preferences of donor countries. The sharing of the ICPD burden within the group of OECD/DAC countries is in line with the countries' ability to pay, although within the aggregate we observe a specialization in channels for aid: small countries predominantly use multilateral aid agencies, whereas large countries rely more on bilateral aid channels. Catholic countries are averse to donating unrestricted funds (flowing primarily to multilateral agencies) or restricted funds targeted at family planning programs.

The effect of remittances on emigration intentions in Egypt, Morocco, and Turkey.

Are remittances determined by altruism or enlightened self-interest, and do they trigger additional migration? In this paper these two questions are examined empirically in relation to data from Egypt, Turkey, and Morocco for households with family members living abroad. It is shown, firstly, that one cannot argue exclusively either for altruism or self-interest as motives, since for each country the data tell a different story and both motives can be identified as driving forces behind remittance behaviour. The general conclusion of this study is that the family ties and the net earnings potential of migrants have stronger effects on the flow of remittances than the net earnings potential of the households in the country of origin. Secondly, because the receipt of remittances has a positive effect on the emigration intentions of household members still living in the country of origin, the receipt of remittances may contribute to new flows of migration, particularly in the case of Morocco.