Nomogram prediction of the 70-gene signature (MammaPrint) binary and quartile categorized risk using medical history, imaging features and clinicopathological data among Chinese breast cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: The 70-gene signature (70-GS, MammaPrint) test has been recommended by the main guidelines to evaluate prognosis and chemotherapy benefit of hormonal receptor positive human epidermal receptor 2 negative (HR + /Her2-) early breast cancer (BC). However, this expensive assay is not always accessible and affordable worldwide. Based on our previous study, we established nomogram models to predict the binary and quartile categorized risk of 70-GS. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed a consecutive cohort of 150 female patients with HR + /Her2- BC and eligible 70-GS test. Comparison of 40 parameters including the patients' medical history risk factors, imaging features and clinicopathological characteristics was performed between patients with high risk (N = 62) and low risk (N = 88) of 70-GS test, whereas risk calculations from established models including Clinical Treatment Score Post-5 years (CTS5), Immunohistochemistry 3 (IHC3) and Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) were also compared between high vs low binary risk of 70-GS and among ultra-high (N = 12), high (N = 50), low (N = 65) and ultra-low (N = 23) quartile categorized risk of 70-GS. The data of 150 patients were randomly split by 4:1 ratio with training set of 120 patients and testing set 30 patients. Univariate analyses and multivariate logistic regression were performed to establish the two nomogram models to predict the the binary and quartile categorized risk of 70-GS. RESULTS: Compared to 70-GS low-risk patients, the high-risk patients had significantly less cardiovascular co-morbidity (p = 0.034), more grade 3 BC (p = 0.006), lower progesterone receptor (PR) positive percentage (p = 0.007), more Ki67 high BC (≥ 20%, p < 0.001) and no significant differences in all the imaging parameters of ultrasound and mammogram. The IHC3 risk and the NPI calculated score significantly correlated with both the binary and quartile categorized 70-GS risk classifications (both p < 0.001). The area under curve (AUC) of receiver-operating curve (ROC) of nomogram for binary risk prediction were 0.826 (C-index 0.903, 0.799-1.000) for training and 0.737 (C-index 0.785, 0.700-0.870) for validation dataset respectively. The AUC of ROC of nomogram for quartile risk prediction was 0.870 (C-index 0.854, 0.746-0.962) for training and 0.592 (C-index 0.769, 0.703-0.835) for testing set. The prediction accuracy of the nomogram for quartile categorized risk groups were 55.0% (likelihood ratio tests, p < 0.001) and 53.3% (p = 0.04) for training and validation, which more than double the baseline probability of 25%. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, we are the first to establish easy-to-use nomograms to predict the individualized binary (high vs low) and the quartile categorized (ultra-high, high, low and ultra-low) risk classification of 70-GS test with fair performance, which might provide information for treatment choice for those who have no access to the 70-GS testing.

The Predictive Utility of MammaPrint and BluePrint in Identifying Patients with Locally Advanced Breast Cancer Who are Most Likely to Have Nodal Downstaging and a Pathologic Complete Response After Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy.

BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NCT) increases the feasibility of surgical resection by downstaging large primary breast tumors and nodal involvement, which may result in surgical de-escalation and improved outcomes. This subanalysis from the Multi-Institutional Neo-adjuvant Therapy MammaPrint Project I (MINT) trial evaluated the association between MammaPrint and BluePrint with nodal downstaging. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The prospective MINT trial (NCT01501487) enrolled 387 patients between 2011 and 2016 aged ≥ 18 years with invasive breast cancer (T2-T4). This subanalysis includes 146 patients with stage II-III, lymph node positive, who received NCT. MammaPrint stratifies tumors as having a Low Risk or High Risk of distant metastasis. Together with MammaPrint, BluePrint genomically (g) categorizes tumors as gLuminal A, gLuminal B, gHER2, or gBasal. RESULTS: Overall, 45.2% (n = 66/146) of patients had complete nodal downstaging, of whom 60.6% (n = 40/66) achieved a pathologic complete response. MammaPrint and combined MammaPrint and BluePrint were significantly associated with nodal downstaging (p = 0.007 and p < 0.001, respectively). A greater proportion of patients with MammaPrint High Risk tumors had nodal downstaging compared with Low Risk (p = 0.007). When classified with MammaPrint and BluePrint, more patients with gLuminal B, gHER2, and gBasal tumors had nodal downstaging compared with HR+HER2-, gLuminal A tumors (p = 0.538, p < 0.001, and p = 0.013, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with genomically High Risk tumors, defined by MammaPrint with or without BluePrint, respond better to NCT and have a higher likelihood of nodal downstaging compared with patients with gLuminal A tumors. These genomic signatures can be used to select node-positive patients who are more likely to have nodal downstaging and avoid invasive surgical procedures.

MammaPrint and BluePrint comprehensively capture the cancer hallmarks in early-stage breast cancer patients.

MammaPrint® (MP) is a 70-gene signature that stratifies early-stage breast cancer patients into low- and high risk of distant relapse. Further stratification of MP risk results identifies four risk subgroups, ultra-low (UL), low, high 1, and high 2, with specific prognostic and predictive outcomes. BluePrint® (BP) is an 80-gene signature that classifies breast tumors as basal, luminal, or HER2 molecular subtype. To gain insight into their biological significance, we annotated the MP 70- and BP 80-genes with respect to the 10 hallmarks of cancer (HoC). Furthermore, we related gene expression profiles of the extreme ends of the MP low- and high-risk patients (here called, ultra-low (UL) and ultra-high (UH) or High2, respectively), to the 10 HoC per BP subtype by differential gene expression and pathway analysis. MP and BP gene functions reflected all 10 HoCs. Most MP and BP genes were associated with sustaining proliferative signaling, followed by genome instability and mutation categories. Based on the gene expression profiles, UL and UH subgroup pathways were down -or upregulated, respectively, reflecting proliferative and metastatic features, such as G2M checkpoint, DNA repair, oxidative phosphorylation, immune invasion, PI3K/AKT/mTOR signaling, and hypoxia pathways. Notably, the UH HER2-type was enriched in several immune signaling pathways, such as IL2/STAT5 signaling and TNFα signaling via NFκB. Our results show that MP and BP gene signatures represent and capture all 10 HoCs and highlight underlying biological processes of MP extreme samples, which might guide treatment decisions as the signature captures the full spectrum of early breast cancers.

Clinical and molecular characteristics of estrogen receptor-positive ultralow risk breast cancer tumors identified by the 70-gene signature.

The metastatic potential of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancers is heterogeneous and distant recurrences occur months to decades after primary diagnosis. We have previously shown that patients with tumors classified as ultralow risk by the 70-gene signature have a minimal long-term risk of fatal breast cancer. Here, we evaluate the previously unexplored underlying clinical and molecular characteristics of ultralow risk tumors in 538 ER-positive patients from the Stockholm tamoxifen randomized trial (STO-3). Out of the 98 ultralow risk tumors, 89% were luminal A molecular subtype, whereas 26% of luminal A tumors were of ultralow risk. Compared to other ER-positive tumors, ultralow risk tumors were significantly (Fisher's test, P < .05) more likely to be of smaller tumor size, lower grade, progesterone receptor (PR)-positive, human epidermal growth factor 2 (HER2)-negative and have low Ki-67 levels (proliferation-marker). Moreover, ultralow risk tumors showed significantly lower expression scores of multi-gene modules associated with the AKT/mTOR-pathway, proliferation (AURKA), HER2/ERBB2-signaling, IGF1-pathway, PTEN-loss and immune response (IMMUNE1 and IMMUNE2) and higher expression scores of the PIK3CA-mutation-associated module. Furthermore, 706 genes were significantly (FDR < 0.001) differentially expressed in ultralow risk tumors, including lower expression of genes involved in immune response, PI3K/Akt/mTOR-pathway, histones, cell cycle, DNA repair, apoptosis and higher expression of genes coding for epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition and homeobox proteins, among others. In conclusion, ultralow risk tumors, associated with minimal long-term risk of fatal disease, differ from other ER-positive tumors, including luminal A molecular subtype tumors. Identification of these characteristics is important to improve our prediction of nonfatal vs fatal breast cancer.

The 70-gene signature test as a prognostic and predictive biomarker in patients with invasive lobular breast cancer.

PURPOSE: Genomic expression assays provide prognostic information and guide adjuvant chemotherapy decisions for patients with estrogen receptor (ER)-positive breast cancer. Few studies have evaluated the utility of such assays for invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC). The objective of this study is to evaluate the 70-gene signature test (ST) as a prognostic and predictive tool for ILC using a national cancer database. METHODS: We identified patients diagnosed with stage I-III ER-positive ILC from 2004 to 2016 using the National Cancer Database. All patients underwent 70-gene ST testing. We used the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox proportional hazard analyses to determine overall survival based on genomic risk classification. We also determined the benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy for patients with high-genomic risk ILC based on 70-gene ST testing. RESULTS: We identified 2610 patients with ILC who underwent 70-gene ST testing; 280 (11%) were classified as high genomic risk. Five-year overall survival rates were significantly worse for patients classified as high risk (83%) as compared with those classified as low risk (94%, p < 0.05). In Cox models, high genomic risk was independently associated with a significantly increased hazard of death. In our Cox models of patients who were high genomic risk, adjuvant chemotherapy was not significantly associated with improved overall survival. CONCLUSION: In this large database study, we found that the genomic risk category determined by the 70-gene ST was significantly associated with survival outcomes for patients with ILC. However, the 70-gene ST failed to predict the benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy for patients with high genomic risk.

Limiting systemic endocrine overtreatment in postmenopausal breast cancer patients with an ultralow classification of the 70-gene signature.

PURPOSE: Guidelines recommend endocrine treatment for estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) breast cancers for up to 10 years. Earlier data suggest that the 70-gene signature (MammaPrint) has potential to select patients that have an excellent survival without chemotherapy and limited or no tamoxifen treatment. The aim was to validate the 70-gene signature ultralow-risk classification for endocrine therapy decision making. METHODS: In the IKA trial, postmenopausal patients with non-metastatic breast cancer had been randomized between no or limited adjuvant tamoxifen treatment without receiving chemotherapy. For this secondary analysis, FFPE tumor material was obtained of ER+HER2- patients with 0-3 positive lymph nodes and tested for the 70-gene signature. Distant recurrence-free interval (DRFI) long-term follow-up data were collected. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to estimate DRFI, stratified by lymph node status, for the three predefined 70-gene signature risk groups. RESULTS: A reliable 70-gene signature could be obtained for 135 patients. Of the node-negative and node-positive patients, respectively, 20% and 13% had an ultralow-risk classification. No DRFI events were observed for node-negative patients with an ultralow-risk score in the first 10 years. The 10-year DRFI was 90% and 66% in the low-risk (but not ultralow) and high-risk classified node-negative patients, respectively. CONCLUSION: These survival analyses indicate that the postmenopausal node-negative ER+HER2- patients with an ultralow-risk 70-gene signature score have an excellent 10-year DRFI after surgery with a median of 1 year of endocrine treatment. This is in line with published results of the STO-3-randomized clinical trial and supports the concept that it is possible to reduce the duration of endocrine treatment in selected patients.

Combining method of detection and 70-gene signature for enhanced prognostication of breast cancer.

PURPOSE: Studies have shown that screen detection by national screening programs is independently associated with better prognosis of breast cancer. The aim of this study is to evaluate the association between tumor biology according to the 70-gene signature (70-GS) and survival of patients with screen-detected and interval breast cancers. METHODS: All Dutch breast cancer patients enrolled in the MINDACT trial (EORTC-10041/BIG3-04) accrued 2007-2011, who participated in the national screening program (biennial screening, ages 50-75) were included (n = 1102). Distant Metastasis-Free Interval (DMFI) was evaluated according to the 70-GS for patients with screen-detected (n = 754) and interval cancers (n = 348). RESULTS: Patients with screen-detected cancers had 8-year DMFI rates of 98.2% for 70-GS ultralow-, 94.6% for low-, and 93.8% for high-risk tumors (p = 0.4). For interval cancers, there was a significantly lower 8-year DMFI rate for patients with 70-GS high-risk tumors (85.2%) compared to low- (92.2%) and ultralow-risk tumors (97.4%, p = 0.0023). Among patients with 70-GS high-risk tumors, a significant difference in 8-year DMFI rate was observed between interval (85.2%, n = 166) versus screen-detected cancers (93.8%, n = 238; p = 0.002) with a HR of 2.3 (95%CI 1.2-4.4, p = 0.010) adjusted for clinical-pathological characteristics and adjuvant systemic treatment. CONCLUSION: Among patients with 70-GS high-risk tumors, a significant difference in DMFI was observed between screen-detected and interval cancers, suggesting that method of detection is an additional prognostic factor in this subgroup and should be taken into account when deciding on adjuvant treatment strategies.

Patient-centered simulations to assess the usefulness of the 70-gene signature for adjuvant chemotherapy administration in early-stage breast cancer.

PURPOSE: From the MINDACT trial, Cardoso et al. did not demonstrate a significant efficacy for adjuvant chemotherapy (CT) for women with early-stage breast cancer presenting high clinical and low genomic risks. Our objective was to assess the usefulness of the 70-gene signature in this population by using an alternative endpoint: the number of Quality-Adjusted Life-Years (QALYs), i.e., a synthetic measure of quantity and quality of life. METHODS: Based on the results of the MINDACT trial, we simulated a randomized clinical trial consisting of 1497 women with early-stage breast cancer presenting high clinical and low genomic risks. The individual preferences for the different health states and corresponding decrements were obtained from the literature. RESULTS: The gain in terms of 5-year disease-free survival was 2.8% (95% CI from - 0.1 to 5.7%, from 90.4% for women without CT to 93.3% for women with CT). In contrast, due to the associated side effects, CT significantly reduced the number of QALYs by 62 days (95% CI from 55 to 70 days, from 4.13 years for women without CT to 3.96 years for women with CT). CONCLUSION: Our results support the conclusions published by Cardoso et al. by providing additional evidence that the 70-gene signature can be used to avoid overtreatment by CT for women with high clinical risk but low genomic risk.

A high-risk 70-gene signature is not associated with the detection of tumor cell dissemination to the bone marrow.

PURPOSE: The 70-gene signature (70-GS) is a prognostic tool, grouping patients in risk groups to assess their need for adjuvant chemotherapy. Tumor cell dissemination to the bone marrow is a marker of minimal residual disease and associated with impaired survival. In this study, we aimed to evaluate whether 70-GS is associated with the presence of disseminated tumor cells (DTCs) in the bone marrow of patients with early breast cancer. METHODS: In patients with hormone receptor-positive HER2-negative early breast cancer, the 70-GS was obtained and the presence of DTCs was immunohistochemically evaluated using cytokeratin staining with the A45-B/B3 antibody. RESULTS: 149 patients were included into the analysis. 40 (27%) had a high-risk 70-GS and 35 (23%) had detectable DTCs in their bone marrow. 9 (22%) of the 40 patients with high-risk 70-GS and 26 (24%) of the 109 patients with a low-risk 70-GS were positive for DTCs (p = 0.863). CONCLUSIONS: As both 70-GS and DTC detection are known prognostic factors but do not seem to correlate, a follow-up on a larger cohort is warranted to evaluate if a combination of the two is able to better stratify the relapse risk in early breast cancer patients.

Tamoxifen therapy benefit for patients with 70-gene signature high and low risk.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer molecular prognostic tools that predict recurrence risk have mainly been established on endocrine-treated patients and thus are not optimal for the evaluation of benefit from endocrine therapy. The Stockholm tamoxifen (STO-3) trial which randomized postmenopausal node-negative patients to 2-year tamoxifen (followed by an optional randomization for an additional 3-year tamoxifen vs nil), versus no adjuvant treatment, provides a unique opportunity to evaluate long-term 20-year benefit of endocrine therapy within prognostic risk classes of the 70-gene prognosis signature that was developed on adjuvantly untreated patients. METHODS: We assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis 20-year breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) and 10-year distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) for 538 estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, STO-3 trial patients with retrospectively ascertained 70-gene prognosis classification. Multivariable analysis of long-term (20 years) BCSS by STO-3 trial arm in the 70-gene high-risk and low-risk subgroups was performed using Cox proportional hazard modeling adjusting for classical patient and tumor characteristics. RESULTS: Tamoxifen-treated, 70-gene low- and high-risk patients had 20-year BCSS of 90 and 83%, as compared to 80 and 65% for untreated patients, respectively (log-rank p < 0.0001). Notably, there is equivalent tamoxifen benefit in both high (HR 0.42 (0.21-0.86), p = 0.018) and low (HR 0.46 (0.25-0.85), p = 0.013) 70-gene risk categories even after adjusting for clinico-pathological factors for BCSS. Limited tamoxifen exposure as given in the STO-3 trial provides persistent benefit for 10-15 years after diagnosis in a time-varying analysis. 10-year DMFS was 93 and 85% for low- and high-risk tamoxifen-treated, versus 83 and 70% for low- and high-risk untreated patients, respectively (log-rank p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with ER-positive breast cancer, regardless of high or low 70-gene risk classification, receive significant survival benefit lasting over 10 years from adjuvant tamoxifen therapy, even when given for a relatively short duration.

Changes over time in the impact of gene-expression profiles on the administration of adjuvant chemotherapy in estrogen receptor positive early stage breast cancer patients: A nationwide study.

Ten years ago gene-expression profiles were introduced to aid adjuvant chemotherapy decision making in breast cancer. Since then subsequent national guidelines gradually expanded the indication area for adjuvant chemotherapy. In this nation-wide study the evolution of the proportion of patients with estrogen-receptor positive (ER+) tumors receiving adjuvant chemotherapy in relation to gene-expression profile use in patient groups that became newly eligible for chemotherapy according to national guideline changes over time is assessed. Data on all surgically treated early breast cancer patients diagnosed between 2004-2006 and 2012-2014 were obtained from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. ER+/Her2- patients with tumor-characteristics making them eligible for gene-expression testing in both cohorts and a discordant chemotherapy recommendation over time (2004 guideline not recommending and 2012 guideline recommending chemotherapy) were identified. We identified 3,864 patients eligible for gene-expression profile use during both periods. Gene-expression profiles were deployed in 5% and 35% of the patients in the respective periods. In both periods the majority of patients was assigned to a low genomic risk-profile (67% and 69%, respectively) and high adherence rates to the test result were observed (86% and 91%, respectively). Without deploying a gene-expression profile 8% and 52% (p <0.001) of the respective cohorts received chemotherapy while 21% and 28% of these patients received chemotherapy when a gene-expression profile was used (p 0.191). In conclusion, in ER+/Her2- early stage breast cancer patients gene-expression profile use was associated with a consistent proportion of patients receiving chemotherapy despite an adjusted guideline-based recommendation to administer chemotherapy.

Radiological, pathological and surgical outcomes after neoadjuvant endocrine treatment in patients with ER-positive/HER2-negative breast cancer with a clinical high risk and a low-risk 70-gene signature.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to evaluate the response to and surgical benefits of neoadjuvant endocrine therapy (NET) in ER+/HER2-breast cancer patients who are clinically high risk, but genomic low risk according to the 70-gene signature (MammaPrint). METHODS: Patients with ER+/HER2-invasive breast cancer with a clinical high risk according to MINDACT, who had a genomic low risk according to the 70-gene signature and were treated with NET between 2015 and 2023 in our center, were retrospectively analyzed. RECIST 1.1 criteria were used to assess radiological response using MRI or ultrasound. Surgical specimens were evaluated to assess pathological response. Two breast cancer surgeons independently scored the eligibility of breast conserving therapy (BCS) pre- and post- NET. RESULTS: Of 72 included patients, 23 were premenopausal (100% started with tamoxifen of which 4 also received OFS) and 49 were postmenopausal (98% started with an aromatase inhibitor). Overall, 8 (11%) showed radiological complete response. Only 1 (1.4%) patient had a pathological complete response (RCB-0) and 68 (94.4%) had a pathological partial response (RCB-1 or RCB-2). Among the 26 patients initially considered for mastectomy, 14 (53.8%) underwent successful BCS. In all 20 clinical node-positive patients, a marked axillary lymph node was removed to assess response. Four out of 20 (20%) patients had a pathological complete response of the axilla. CONCLUSION: The study showed that a subgroup of patients with a clinical high risk and a genomic low risk ER+/HER2-breast cancer benefits from NET resulting in BCS instead of a mastectomy. Additionally, NET may enable de-escalation in axillary treatment.

Agreement on risk assessment and chemotherapy recommendations among breast cancer specialists: A survey within the MINDACT cohort.

PURPOSE: Tailored recommendation for adjuvant chemotherapy in breast cancer patients is of great importance. This survey assessed agreement among oncologists on risk assessment and chemotherapy recommendation, the impact of adding the 70-gene signature to clinical-pathological characteristics, and changes over time. METHODS: A survey consisting of 37 discordant patient cases from the MINDACT trial (T1-3N0-1M0) was sent to European breast cancer specialists for assessment of risk (high or low) and chemotherapy administration (yes or no). In 2015 the survey was sent twice (survey 1 and 2), several weeks apart, and in 2021 a third time (survey 3). Only the second and third surveys included the 70-gene signature result. RESULTS: 41 breast cancer specialists participated in all three surveys. Overall agreement between respondents decreased slightly between survey 1 and 2, but increased again in survey 3. Over time there was an increase in agreement with the 70-gene signature result on risk assessment, 23% in survey 2 versus 1 and 11% in survey 3 versus 2. With information available indicating a low risk 70-gene signature (n = 25 cases), 20% of risk assessments changed from high to low and 19% of recommendations changed from yes to no chemotherapy in survey 2 versus 1, further increasing with 18% and 21%, respectively, in survey 3 versus 2. CONCLUSION: There is a variability in risk assessment of early breast cancer patients among breast cancer specialists. The 70-gene signature provided valuable information, resulting in fewer patients being assessed as high risk and fewer recommendations for chemotherapy, increasing over time.

Transferring MINDACT to Daily Routine: Implementation of the 70-Gene Signature in Luminal Early Breast Cancer - Results from a Prospective Registry of the Austrian Group Medical Tumor Therapy (AGMT).

Background: For hormone receptor (HR)-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative early breast cancer (EBC), adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) is recommended in the case of high-risk features only. The MINDACT trial showed that patients with high clinical risk (CR) but low genomic risk (GR) defined by the 70-gene signature (MammaPrint®; 70-GS) did not benefit from ACT. In this registry, we investigated the frequency and feasibility of 70-GS and concurrent 80-gene subtyping (BluePrint®) use in HR-positive, HER2-negative EBC. Furthermore, we recorded the frequency of ACT recommendation and the adherence to it when the "MINDACT strategy" was used. Methods: This prospective registry included patients from 2 Austrian cancer centers. Similar to MINDACT, a modified version of Adjuvant!Online was used to determine CR, and 70-GC was used to determine GR in high-CR patients. ACT was recommended to patients with high CR and high GR. Results: Of 224 enrolled patients, 76 (33.9%) had high CR and 67 (88.2%) received genomic testing. Of those, 43 (64.2%) were classified as low and 24 (35.8%) as high GR, respectively. All 24 patients with high CR and GR (10.7% of all patients) received the recommendation for ACT, but ACT was started in only 15 patients (62.5%). The median time from surgery to the start of ACT was 45 days (range 32-68), and the median time from test decision to the test result was 15 days (range 9-56). Conclusion: We showed that the results of the MINDACT trial are reproducible in an Austrian population. Incorporating 70-GS into the daily clinical routine is feasible and mostly accepted by physicians for the guidance of treatment recommendations.

Ten-year follow-up of the observational RASTER study, prospective evaluation of the 70-gene signature in ER-positive, HER2-negative, node-negative, early breast cancer.

INTRODUCTION: Prognostic gene expression signatures can be used in combination with classical clinicopathological factors to guide adjuvant chemotherapy decisions in ER-positive, HER2-negative breast cancer. However, long-term outcome data after introduction of genomic testing in the treatment decision-making process are limited. METHODS: In the prospective RASTER study, the tumours of 427 patients with cTanyN0M0 breast cancer were tested to assess the 70-gene signature (MammaPrint). The results were provided to their treating physician to be incorporated in the decision-making on adjuvant systemic therapy. Here, we report the long-term outcome of the 310 patients with ER-positive, HER2-negative tumours by clinical and genomic risk categories at a median follow-up of 10.3 years. RESULTS: Among the clinically high-risk patients, 45 (49%) were classified as genomically low risk. In this subgroup, at 10 years, distant recurrence free interval (DRFI) was similar between patients treated with (95.7% [95% CI 87.7-100]) and without (95.5% [95% CI 87.1-100]) chemotherapy. Within the group of clinically low-risk patients, 56 (26%) were classified as genomically high risk. Within the clinically low-risk group, beyond 5 years, a difference emerged between the genomically high- and low-risk subgroup resulting in a 10-year DRFI of 84.3% (95% CI 74.8-95.0) and 93.4% (95% CI 89.5-97.5), respectively. Interestingly, genomic ultralow-risk patients have a 10-year DRFI of 96.7% (95% CI 90.5-100), largely (79%) without systemic therapy. CONCLUSIONS: These data confirm that clinically high-risk, genomically low-risk tumours have an excellent outcome in the real-world setting of shared decision-making. Together with the updated results of the MINDACT trial, these data support the use of the MammaPrint, in ER-positive, HER2-negative, node-negative, clinically high-risk breast cancer patients. REGISTRY: ISRCTN71917916.

Validation study of a nomogram for predicting probability of low risk of MammaPrint results in women with clinically high-risk breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: MammaPrint (MMP) helps clinicians identify the ideal time for adjuvant treatment for patients with early HR+/HER2- breast cancer. We aimed to validate a nomogram designed to predict probability of low risk of MMP results and to evaluate the difference in survival outcome between two groups divided by nomogram score. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we evaluated 172 patients from Asan Medical Center, Seoul, Korea, who underwent breast cancer surgery and MMP during 2020-2021. First, we validated the nomogram by calculating the area under the curve (AUC) and using calibration. Additionally, with the data of 1,835 T1-3N0-1M0 HR+/HER2- patients from Asan Medical Center during 2010-2013, we compared the disease-free survival (DFS), overall survival (OS), and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) rates by Kaplan-Meier analysis between the two groups divided by nomogram total point (TP) of 183. RESULTS: The AUC calculated by validation of 172 patients was 0.73 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66-0.81). The discrimination and calibration of the prediction model were satisfactory following additional validation of 1835 patients. The high-risk and low-risk groups had different 5-year OS (97.9% vs. 98.1%, p = 0.056), DFS (98.6% vs. 99.4%, p = 0.008), and BCSS rates (98.6% vs. 99.4%, p = 0.002). CONCLUSION: For treatment decision-making among clinically high-risk patients with HR+/HER2- and node-positive disease, the nomogram showed satisfactory performance in predicting patients with low genomic risk. Survival outcome significantly differed between two groups divided by nomogram TP. More studies are needed to validate this model in international cohorts and large prospective cohorts from other institutions.

Prediction of Breast Cancer Recurrence Using a Deep Convolutional Neural Network Without Region-of-Interest Labeling.

PURPOSE: The present study aimed to assign a risk score for breast cancer recurrence based on pathological whole slide images (WSIs) using a deep learning model. METHODS: A total of 233 WSIs from 138 breast cancer patients were assigned either a low-risk or a high-risk score based on a 70-gene signature. These images were processed into patches of 512x512 pixels by the PyHIST tool and underwent color normalization using the Macenko method. Afterward, out of focus and pixelated patches were removed using the Laplacian algorithm. Finally, the remaining patches (n=294,562) were split into 3 parts for model training (50%), validation (7%) and testing (43%). We used 6 pretrained models for transfer learning and evaluated their performance using accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, confusion matrix, and AUC. Additionally, to demonstrate the robustness of the final model and its generalization capacity, the testing set was used for model evaluation. Finally, the GRAD-CAM algorithm was used for model visualization. RESULTS: Six models, namely VGG16, ResNet50, ResNet101, Inception_ResNet, EfficientB5, and Xception, achieved high performance in the validation set with an overall accuracy of 0.84, 0.85, 0.83, 0.84, 0.87, and 0.91, respectively. We selected Xception for assessment of the testing set, and this model achieved an overall accuracy of 0.87 with a patch-wise approach and 0.90 and 1.00 with a patient-wise approach for high-risk and low-risk groups, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our study demonstrated the feasibility and high performance of artificial intelligence models trained without region-of-interest labeling for predicting cancer recurrence based on a 70-gene signature risk score.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of the 70-gene signature compared with clinical assessment in breast cancer based on a randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The clinical utility of the 70-gene signature (MammaPrint®) to guide chemotherapy use in T1-3N0-1M0 breast cancer was demonstrated in the Microarray in Node-Negative and 1 to 3 Positive Lymph Node Disease May Avoid Chemotherapy (MINDACT) study. One thousand four ninety seven of 3356 (46.2%) enrolled patients with high clinical risk (in accordance with the modified Adjuvant! Online clinical-pathological assessment) had a low-risk 70-gene signature. Using patient-level data from the MINDACT trial, the cost-effectiveness of using the 70-gene signature to guide adjuvant chemotherapy selection for clinical high risk, estrogen receptor positive (ER+), human epidermal growth factor 2 negative (HER2-) patients was analysed. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A hybrid decision tree-Markov model simulated treatment strategies in accordance with the 70-gene signature with clinical assessment versus clinical assessment alone, over a 10-year time horizon. Primary outcomes were quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), country-specific costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for six countries: Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands, UK and the US. RESULTS: Treatment strategies guided by the 70-gene signature result in more QALYs compared with clinical assessment alone. Costs of the 70-gene signature strategy were lower in five of six countries. This led to dominance of the 70-gene signature in Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands and the US and to a cost-effective situation in the UK (ICER £22,910/QALY). Annual national cost savings were €4.2M (Belgium), €24.7M (France), €45.1M (Germany), €12.7M (Netherlands) and $244M (US). UK budget increase was £8.4M. CONCLUSION: Using the 70-gene signature to safely guide chemotherapy de-escalation in clinical high risk patients with ER+/HER2- tumours is cost-effective compared with using clinical assessment alone. Long-term follow-up and outcomes from the MINDACT trial are necessary to address uncertainties in model inputs.

Conventional Pathology Versus Gene Signatures for Assessing Luminal A and B Type Breast Cancers: Results of a Prospective Cohort Study.

In this study, in estrogen receptor positive (ER+) early stage breast cancer patients who were considered candidates for 70-gene signature (70-GS, "MammaPrint") use, we compared molecular subtyping (MS) based on the previously validated 80-gene signature (80-GS, "BluePrint") versus surrogate pathological subtyping (PS). Between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2015, 595 clinical intermediate risk ER+ early stage breast cancer patients were enrolled. Hormone receptor (HR) and HER2 receptor status were determined by conventional pathology using immunohistochemistry (IHC) and fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH). Ki67 was assessed in a subset of patients. The overall concordance between PS and MS for luminal type cancers (A and B together) was 98%. The concordance between PS and MS for luminal A and luminal B type cancers based on the Bloom Richardson histological grade (BR) (n = 586) or Ki67 (n = 185) was low: 64% (Kappa 0.20 [95% CI 0.11⁻0.28]) and 65% (Kappa 0.22 [95% CI 0.062⁻0.37]), respectively. In this prospective study (NCT02209857) of a selection of ER+ and predominantly HER2- early-stage breast cancer patients, the additional ability of the 80-GS to distinguish between luminal, HER2-type and basal-like cancers was inherently very limited. The distinction of luminal-type tumors into A and B according to Ki67 status or BR grade versus the 70-GS revealed poor concordance.