Forest mosaics, not savanna corridors, dominated in Southeast Asia during the Last Glacial Maximum.

The dominant paradigm is that large tracts of Southeast Asia's lowland rainforests were replaced with a "savanna corridor" during the cooler, more seasonal climates of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (23,000 to 19,000 y ago). This interpretation has implications for understanding the resilience of Asia's tropical forests to projected climate change, implying a vulnerability to "savannization". A savanna corridor is also an important foundation for archaeological interpretations of how humans moved through and settled insular Southeast Asia and Australia. Yet an up-to-date, multiproxy, and empirical examination of the palaeoecological evidence for this corridor is lacking. We conducted qualitative and statistical analyses of 59 palaeoecological records across Southeast Asia to test the evidence for LGM savannization and clarify the relationships between methods, biogeography, and ecological change in the region from the start of Late Glacial Period (119,000 y ago) to the present. The pollen records typically show montane forest persistence during the LGM, while δ13C biomarker proxies indicate the expansion of C4-rich grasslands. We reconcile this discrepancy by hypothesizing the expansion of montane forest in the uplands and replacement of rainforest with seasonally dry tropical forest in the lowlands. We also find that smooth forest transitions between 34,000 and 2,000 y ago point to the capacity of Southeast Asia's ecosystems both to resist and recover from climate stressors, suggesting resilience to savannization. Finally, the timing of ecological change observed in our combined datasets indicates an 'early' onset of the LGM in Southeast Asia from ~30,000 y ago.

Concurrent Asian monsoon strengthening and early modern human dispersal to East Asia during the last interglacial.

The relationship between initial Homo sapiens dispersal from Africa to East Asia and the orbitally paced evolution of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM)-currently the largest monsoon system-remains underexplored due to lack of coordinated synthesis of both Asian paleoanthropological and paleoclimatic data. Here, we investigate orbital-scale ASM dynamics during the last 280 thousand years (kyr) and their likely influences on early H. sapiens dispersal to East Asia, through a unique integration of i) new centennial-resolution ASM records from the Chinese Loess Plateau, ii) model-based East Asian hydroclimatic reconstructions, iii) paleoanthropological data compilations, and iv) global H. sapiens habitat suitability simulations. Our combined proxy- and model-based reconstructions suggest that ASM precipitation responded to a combination of Northern Hemisphere ice volume, greenhouse gas, and regional summer insolation forcing, with cooccurring primary orbital cycles of ~100-kyr, 41-kyr, and ~20-kyr. Between ~125 and 70 kyr ago, summer monsoon rains and temperatures increased in vast areas across Asia. This episode coincides with the earliest H. sapiens fossil occurrence at multiple localities in East Asia. Following the transcontinental increase in simulated habitat suitability, we suggest that ASM strengthening together with Southeast African climate deterioration may have promoted the initial H. sapiens dispersal from their African homeland to remote East Asia during the last interglacial.

East Asian summer monsoon delivers large abundances of very-short-lived organic chlorine substances to the lower stratosphere.

Deep convection in the Asian summer monsoon is a significant transport process for lifting pollutants from the planetary boundary layer to the tropopause level. This process enables efficient injection into the stratosphere of reactive species such as chlorinated very-short-lived substances (Cl-VSLSs) that deplete ozone. Past studies of convective transport associated with the Asian summer monsoon have focused mostly on the south Asian summer monsoon. Airborne observations reported in this work identify the East Asian summer monsoon convection as an effective transport pathway that carried record-breaking levels of ozone-depleting Cl-VSLSs (mean organic chlorine from these VSLSs ~500 ppt) to the base of the stratosphere. These unique observations show total organic chlorine from VSLSs in the lower stratosphere over the Asian monsoon tropopause to be more than twice that previously reported over the tropical tropopause. Considering the recently observed increase in Cl-VSLS emissions and the ongoing strengthening of the East Asian summer monsoon under global warming, our results highlight that a reevaluation of the contribution of Cl-VSLS injection via the Asian monsoon to the total stratospheric chlorine budget is warranted.

Improved subseasonal prediction of South Asian monsoon rainfall using data-driven forecasts of oscillatory modes.

Predicting the temporal and spatial patterns of South Asian monsoon rainfall within a season is of critical importance due to its impact on agriculture, water availability, and flooding. The monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO) is a robust northward-propagating mode that determines the active and break phases of the monsoon and much of the regional distribution of rainfall. However, dynamical atmospheric forecast models predict this mode poorly. Data-driven methods for MISO prediction have shown more skill, but only predict the portion of the rainfall corresponding to MISO rather than the full rainfall signal. Here, we combine state-of-the-art ensemble precipitation forecasts from a high-resolution atmospheric model with data-driven forecasts of MISO. The ensemble members of the detailed atmospheric model are projected onto a lower-dimensional subspace corresponding to the MISO dynamics and are then weighted according to their distance from the data-driven MISO forecast in this subspace. We thereby achieve improvements in rainfall forecasts over India, as well as the broader monsoon region, at 10- to 30-d lead times, an interval that is generally considered to be a predictability gap. The temporal correlation of rainfall forecasts is improved by up to 0.28 in this time range. Our results demonstrate the potential of leveraging the predictability of intraseasonal oscillations to improve extended-range forecasts; more generally, they point toward a future of combining dynamical and data-driven forecasts for Earth system prediction.

Soil moisture decline in China's monsoon loess critical zone: More a result of land-use conversion than climate change.

Soil moisture (SM) is essential for sustaining services from Earth's critical zone, a thin-living skin spanning from the canopy to groundwater. In the Anthropocene epoch, intensive afforestation has remarkably contributed to global greening and certain service improvements, often at the cost of reduced SM. However, attributing the response of SM in deep soil to such human activities is a great challenge because of the scarcity of long-term observations. Here, we present a 37 y (1985 to 2021) analysis of SM dynamics at two scales across China's monsoon loess critical zone. Site-scale data indicate that land-use conversion from arable cropland to forest/grassland caused an 18% increase in SM deficit over 0 to 18 m depth (P < 0.01). Importantly, this SM deficit intensified over time, despite limited climate change influence. Across the Loess Plateau, SM storage in 0 to 10 m layer exhibited a significant decreasing trend from 1985 to 2021, with a turning point in 1999 when starting afforestation. Compared with SM storage before 1999, the relative contributions of climate change and afforestation to SM decline after 1999 were -8% and 108%, respectively. This emphasizes the pronounced impacts of intensifying land-use conversions as the principal catalyst of SM decline. Such a decline shifts 18% of total area into an at-risk status, mainly in the semiarid region, thereby threatening SM security. To mitigate this risk, future land management policies should acknowledge the crucial role of intensifying land-use conversions and their interplay with climate change. This is imperative to ensure SM security and sustain critical zone services.

Glacial changes in sea level modulated millennial-scale variability of Southeast Asian autumn monsoon rainfall.

Most paleoclimate studies of Mainland Southeast Asia hydroclimate focus on the summer monsoon, with few studies investigating rainfall in other seasons. Here, we present a multiproxy stalagmite record (45,000 to 4,000 years) from central Vietnam, a region that receives most of its annual rainfall in autumn (September-November). We find evidence of a prolonged dry period spanning the last glacial maximum that is punctuated by an abrupt shift to wetter conditions during the deglaciation at ~14 ka. Paired with climate model simulations, we show that sea-level change drives autumn monsoon rainfall variability on glacial-orbital timescales. Consistent with the dry signal in the stalagmite record, climate model simulations reveal that lower glacial sea level exposes land in the Gulf of Tonkin and along the South China Shelf, reducing convection and moisture delivery to central Vietnam. When sea level rises and these landmasses flood at ~14 ka, moisture delivery to central Vietnam increases, causing an abrupt shift from dry to wet conditions. On millennial timescales, we find signatures of well-known Heinrich Stadials (HS) (dry conditions) and Dansgaard-Oeschger Events (wet conditions). Model simulations show that during the dry HS, changes in sea surface temperature related to meltwater forcing cause the formation of an anomalous anticyclone in the Western Pacific, which advects dry air across central Vietnam, decreasing autumn rainfall. Notably, sea level modulates the magnitude of millennial-scale dry and wet phases by muting dry events and enhancing wet events during periods of low sea level, highlighting the importance of this mechanism to autumn monsoon variability.

Eccentricity-paced geomagnetic field and monsoon rainfall variations over the last 870 kyr.

Whether there are links between geomagnetic field and Earth's orbital parameters remains unclear. Synchronous reconstructions of parallel long-term quantitative geomagnetic field and climate change records are rare. Here, we present 10Be-derived changes of both geomagnetic field and Asian monsoon (AM) rainfall over the last 870 kyr from the Xifeng loess-paleosol sequence on the central Chinese Loess Plateau. The 10BeGM flux (a proxy for geomagnetic field-induced 10Be production rate) reveals 13 consecutive geomagnetic excursions in the Brunhes chron, which are synchronized with the global records, providing key time markers for Chinese loess-paleosol sequences. The 10Be-derived rainfall exhibits distinct ~100 kyr glacial-interglacial cycles, and superimposed precessional (~23 kyr) cycles that match with those in Chinese speleothem δ18O record. We find that changes in the geomagnetic field and AM rainfall share a common ~100 kyr cyclicity, implying a likely eccentricity modulation of both the geomagnetic field and climate.

Tectonic and orbital forcing of the South Asian monsoon in central Tibet during the late Oligocene.

The modern pattern of the Asian monsoon is thought to have formed around the Oligocene/Miocene transition and is generally attributed to Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau (H-TP) uplift. However, the timing of the ancient Asian monsoon over the TP and its response to astronomical forcing and TP uplift remains poorly known because of the paucity of well-dated high-resolution geological records from the TP interior. Here, we present a precession-scale cyclostratigraphic sedimentary section of 27.32 to 23.24 million years ago (Ma) during the late Oligocene epoch from the Nima Basin to show that the South Asian monsoon (SAM) had already advanced to the central TP (32°N) at least by 27.3 Ma, which is indicated by cyclic arid-humid fluctuations based on environmental magnetism proxies. A shift of lithology and astronomically orbital periods and amplified amplitude of proxy measurements as well as a hydroclimate transition around 25.8 Ma suggest that the SAM intensified at ~25.8 Ma and that the TP reached a paleoelevation threshold for enhancing the coupling between the uplifted plateau and the SAM. Orbital short eccentricity-paced precipitation variability is argued to be mainly driven by orbital eccentricity-modulated low-latitude summer insolation rather than glacial-interglacial Antarctic ice sheet fluctuations. The monsoon data from the TP interior provide key evidence to link the greatly enhanced tropical SAM at 25.8 Ma with TP uplift rather than global climate change and suggest that SAM's northward expansion to the boreal subtropics was dominated by a combination of tectonic and astronomical forcing at multiple timescales in the late Oligocene epoch.

Biotic colonization of subtropical East Asian caves through time.

Caves are home to unique and fragile biotas with high levels of endemism. However, little is known about how the biotic colonization of caves has developed over time, especially in caves from middle and low latitudes. Subtropical East Asia holds the world's largest karst landform with numerous ancient caves, which harbor a high diversity of cave-dwelling organisms and are regarded as a biodiversity hotspot. Here, we assess the temporal dynamics of biotic colonization of subtropical East Asian caves through a multi-taxon analysis with representatives of green plants, animals, and fungi. We then investigate the consequences of paleonviromental changes on the colonization dynamics of these caves in combination with reconstructions of vegetation, temperature, and precipitation. We discover that 88% of cave colonization events occurred after the Oligocene-Miocene boundary, and organisms from the surrounding forest were a major source for subtropical East Asian cave biodiversity. Biotic colonization of subtropical East Asian caves during the Neogene was subject to periods of acceleration and decrease, in conjunction with large-scale, seasonal climatic changes and evolution of local forests. This study highlights the long-term evolutionary interaction between surface and cave biotas; our climate-vegetation-relict model proposed for the subtropical East Asian cave biota may help explain the evolutionary origins of other mid-latitude subterranean biotas.

Protracted Indian monsoon droughts of the past millennium and their societal impacts.

Protracted droughts lasting years to decades constitute severe threats to human welfare across the Indian subcontinent. Such events are, however, rare during the instrumental period (ca. since 1871 CE). In contrast, the historic documentary evidence indicates the repeated occurrences of protracted droughts in the region during the preinstrumental period implying that either the instrumental observations underestimate the full spectrum of monsoon variability or the historic accounts overestimate the severity and duration of the past droughts. Here we present a temporally precise speleothem-based oxygen isotope reconstruction of the Indian summer monsoon precipitation variability from Mawmluh cave located in northeast India. Our data reveal that protracted droughts, embedded within multidecadal intervals of reduced monsoon rainfall, frequently occurred over the past millennium. These extreme events are in striking temporal synchrony with the historically documented droughts, famines, mass mortality events, and geopolitical changes in the Indian subcontinent. Our findings necessitate reconsideration of the region's current water resources, sustainability, and mitigation policies that discount the possibility of protracted droughts in the future.

Higher sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean during the Last Interglacial weakened the South Asian monsoon.

SignificanceUnderstanding the drivers of South Asian monsoon intensity is pivotal for improving climate forecasting under global warming scenarios. Solar insolation is assumed to be the dominant driver of monsoon variability in warm climate regimes, but this has not been verified by proxy data. We report a South Asian monsoon rainfall record spanning the last ∼130 kyr in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river catchment. Our multiproxy data reveal that the South Asian monsoon was weaker during the Last Interglacial (130 to 115 ka)-despite higher insolation-than during the Holocene (11.6 ka to present), thus questioning the widely accepted model assumption. Our work implies that Indian Ocean warming may increase the occurrence of severe monsoon failures in South Asia.

Meta-analysis provides insights into the origin and evolution of East Asian evergreen broad-leaved forests.

Evergreen broad-leaved forests (EBLFs) are dominated by a monsoon climate and form a distinct biome in East Asia with notably high biodiversity. However, the origin and evolution of East Asian EBLFs (EAEBLFs) remain elusive despite the estimation of divergence times for various representative lineages. Using 72 selected generic-level characteristic lineages, we constructed an integrated lineage accumulation rate (LAR) curve based on their crown ages. According to the crown-based LAR, the EAEBLF origin was identified at least as the early Oligocene (c. 31.8 million years ago (Ma)). The accumulation rate of the characteristic genera peaked at 25.2 and 6.4 Ma, coinciding with the two intensification periods of the Asian monsoon at the Oligocene - Miocene and the Miocene - Pliocene boundaries, respectively. Moreover, the LAR was highly correlated with precipitation in the EAEBLF region and negatively to global temperature, as revealed through time-lag cross-correlation analyses. An early Oligocene origin is suggested for EAEBLFs, bridging the gap between paleobotanical and molecular dating studies and solving conflicts among previous estimates based on individual representative lineages. The strong correlation between the crown-based LAR and the precipitation brought about by the Asian monsoon emphasizes its irreplaceable role in the origin and development of EAEBLFs.

Eccentricity forcing of East Asian monsoonal systems over the past 3 million years.

The East Asian summer monsoon and the precipitation it brings are relevant for millions of people. Because of the monsoon's importance, there has been a substantial amount of work attempting to describe the driving mechanisms behind its past variability. However, discrepancies exist, with speleothem-based East Asian monsoon reconstructions differing from those based on loess records from the Chinese Loess Plateau during the late Quaternary. The periodicity of wet and dry phases experienced by desert areas that lie on the periphery of the East Asian monsoon's influence offer another independent view of monsoonal variability. Here, we provide environmental records based on magnetic parameters for the last 3 million years from the Tengger Desert, China, one such marginal arid region. Our results reveal wet-dry cycles at a dominant frequency of 405 kiloyears, with drier intervals corresponding to eccentricity minima. These findings are consistent with previous reconstructions of East Asian summer and North African summer monsoon precipitation variability. Our records emphasize the dominant role of eccentricity in forcing East Asian monsoonal precipitation as well as monsoonal-derived environmental fluctuations experienced in peripheral desert areas. These results challenge the traditional view that high-latitude ice sheets are the primary driver of East Asian monsoon precipitation during the Quaternary based on Chinese loess records.

Hematite reconstruction of Late Triassic hydroclimate over the Colorado Plateau.

Hematite is the most abundant surficial iron oxide on Earth resulting from near-surface processes that make it important for addressing numerous geologic problems. While red beds have proved to be excellent paleomagnetic recorders, the early diagenetic origin of hematite in these units is often questioned. Here, we validate pigmentary hematite ("pigmentite") as a proxy indicator for the Late Triassic environment and its penecontemporaneous origin by analyzing spectrophotometric measurements of a 14.5-My-long red bed sequence in scientific drill core CPCP-PFNP13-1A of the Chinle Formation, Arizona. Pigmentite concentrations in the red beds track the evolving pattern of the Late Triassic monsoon and indicate a long-term rise in aridity beginning at ∼215 Ma followed by increased oscillatory climate change at ∼213 Ma. These monsoonal changes are attributed to the northward drift of the Colorado Plateau as part of Laurentia into the arid subtropics during a time of fluctuating CO2 Our results refine the record of the Late Triassic monsoon and indicate significant changes in rainfall proximal to the Adamanian-Revueltian biotic transition that thus may have contributed to apparent faunal and floral events at 216 to 213 Ma.

Long-term decrease in Asian monsoon rainfall and abrupt climate change events over the past 6,700 years.

Asian summer monsoon (ASM) variability and its long-term ecological and societal impacts extending back to Neolithic times are poorly understood due to a lack of high-resolution climate proxy data. Here, we present a precisely dated and well-calibrated tree-ring stable isotope chronology from the Tibetan Plateau with 1- to 5-y resolution that reflects high- to low-frequency ASM variability from 4680 BCE to 2011 CE. Superimposed on a persistent drying trend since the mid-Holocene, a rapid decrease in moisture availability between ∼2000 and ∼1500 BCE caused a dry hydroclimatic regime from ∼1675 to ∼1185 BCE, with mean precipitation estimated at 42 ± 4% and 5 ± 2% lower than during the mid-Holocene and the instrumental period, respectively. This second-millennium-BCE megadrought marks the mid-to late Holocene transition, during which regional forests declined and enhanced aeolian activity affected northern Chinese ecosystems. We argue that this abrupt aridification starting ∼2000 BCE contributed to the shift of Neolithic cultures in northern China and likely triggered human migration and societal transformation.

The Sino-Himalayan flora evolved from lowland biomes dominated by tropical floristic elements.

BACKGROUND: The Sino-Himalayan flora harbors highly diverse high-elevation biotas, but our understanding of its evolutionary history in temporal and spatial dimensions is limited. In this study, we integrated a dated phylogenetic tree with comprehensive species distribution data to investigate changes over time and space in floristic elements, including the tropical, Tethys, northern temperate, and East Asian floristic elements, across the entire Sino-Himalaya and its three floristic regions: the Yunnan Plateau, Hengduan Mountains, and East Himalaya regions. RESULTS: Our results revealed that the Sino-Himalayan flora developed from lowland biomes and was predominantly characterized by tropical floristic elements before the collision between the Indian subcontinent and Eurasia during the Early Cenozoic. Subsequently, from the Late Eocene onwards, the uplifts of the Himalaya and Hengduan Mountains transformed the Sino-Himalayan region into a wet and cold plateau, on which harsh and diverse ecological conditions forced the rapid evolution of local angiosperms, giving birth to characteristic taxa adapted to the high altitudes and cold habitat. The percentage of temperate floristic elements increased and exceeded that of tropical floristic elements by the Late Miocene. CONCLUSIONS: The Sino-Himalayan flora underwent four significant formation periods and experienced a considerable increase in endemic genera and species in the Miocene, which remain crucial to the present-day patterns of plant diversity. Our findings support the view that the Sino-Himalayan flora is relatively young but has ancient origins. The three major shifts in the divergence of genera and species during the four formation periods were primarily influenced by the uplifts of the Himalaya and Hengduan Mountains and the onset and intensification of the Asian monsoon system. Additionally, the temporal patterns of floristic elements differed among the three floristic regions of the Sino-Himalaya, indicating that the uplift of the Himalaya and surrounding areas was asynchronous. Compared to the Yunnan Plateau region, the East Himalaya and Hengduan Mountains experienced more recent and drastic uplifts, resulting in highly intricate topography with diverse habitats that promoted the rapid radiation of endemic genera and species in these regions.

Seasonal variation, spatial distribution and risk assessment of microplastics in surface waters of Periyar River, Kerala, India.

Microplastics, an emerging contaminant, are widespread in oceans around the world, and rivers are the key conveyors of these pollutants into the oceans. There exists a dearth of available data pertaining to seasonal fluctuation, spatial distribution and risk assessment of microplastics in rivers extending from upper reaches to the lower reaches. The collection of such data is of utmost importance for the purpose of formulating beneficial management strategies for riverine microplastics. In order to bridge this research gap, an investigation was made in the Periyar River in Kerala, India, which is exposed to anthropogenic stress and is at risk of microplastic pollution. A total of eighteen sites (six sites each from downstream, midstream and upstream) along the 244 km of the river were investigated across three seasons in a year. The study revealed a discernible pattern in the spatial distribution of microplastic concentrations, wherein there was a rise in abundance from the upstream to midstream and then a sudden increase of abundance along the downstream regions towards the lower reaches. The highest mean microplastic abundance of 124.95 items/L was obtained during the monsoon season followed by post-monsoon season i.e. 123.21 items/L and pre-monsoon i.e. 120.50 items/L. The predominant forms of microplastics were found to be fibres, fragments and filaments. Most prevalent polymer types acquired were polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP). Pollution hazard index (PHI) and pollution load index (PLI) were also evaluated to assess the water quality of this river. The findings of this study conclude that the Periyar River is polluted with microplastics throughout its course and offer significant insights into the detection of microplastic origins in river systems and lend support to the implementation of potential measures aimed at mitigating their impact.

Phylogenomic insights into the origin and evolutionary history of evergreen broadleaved forests in East Asia under Cenozoic climate change.

The evergreen versus deciduous leaf habit is an important functional trait for adaptation of forest trees and has been hypothesized to be related to the evolutionary processes of the component species under paleoclimatic change, and potentially reflected in the dynamic history of evergreen broadleaved forests (EBLFs) in East Asia. However, knowledge about the shift of evergreen versus deciduous leaf with the impact of paleoclimatic change using genomic data remains rare. Here, we focus on the Litsea complex (Lauraceae), a key lineage with dominant species of EBLFs, to gain insights into how evergreen versus deciduous trait shifted, providing insights into the origin and historical dynamics of EBLFs in East Asia under Cenozoic climate change. We reconstructed a robust phylogeny of the Litsea complex using genome-wide single-nucleotide variants (SNVs) with eight clades resolved. Fossil-calibrated analyses, diversification rate shifts, ancestral habit, ecological niche modelling and climate niche reconstruction were employed to estimate its origin and diversification pattern. Taking into account studies on other plant lineages dominating EBLFs of East Asia, it was revealed that the prototype of EBLFs in East Asia probably emerged in the Early Eocene (55-50 million years ago [Ma]), facilitated by the greenhouse warming. As a response to the cooling and drying climate in the Middle to Late Eocene (48-38 Ma), deciduous habits were evolved in the dominant lineages of the EBLFs in East Asia. Up to the Early Miocene (23 Ma), the prevailing of East Asian monsoon increased the extreme seasonal precipitation and accelerated the emergence of evergreen habits of the dominant lineages, and ultimately shaped the vegetation resembling that of today.

The North American Monsoon buffers forests against the ongoing megadrought in the Southwestern United States.

The US Southwest has been entrenched in a two-decade-long megadrought (MD), the most severe since 800 CE, which threatens the long-term vitality and persistence of regional montane forests. Here, we report that in the face of record low winter precipitation and increasing atmospheric aridity, seasonal activity of the North American Monsoon (NAM) climate system brings sufficient precipitation during the height of the summer to alleviate extreme tree water stress. We studied seasonally resolved, tree-ring stable carbon isotope ratios across a 57-year time series (1960-2017) in 17 Ponderosa pine forests distributed across the NAM geographic domain. Our study focused on the isotope dynamics of latewood (LW), which is produced in association with NAM rains. During the MD, populations growing within the core region of the NAM operated at lower intrinsic and higher evaporative water-use efficiencies (WUEi and WUEE , respectively), compared to populations growing in the periphery of the NAM domain, indicating less physiological water stress in those populations with access to NAM moisture. The disparities in water-use efficiencies in periphery populations are due to a higher atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and reduced access to summer soil moisture. The buffering advantage of the NAM, however, is weakening. We observed that since the MD, the relationship between WUEi and WUEE in forests within the core NAM domain is shifting toward a drought response similar to forests on the periphery of the NAM. After correcting for past increases in the atmospheric CO2 concentration, we were able to isolate the LW time-series responses to climate alone. This showed that the shift in the relation between WUEi and WUEE was driven by the extreme increases in MD-associated VPD, with little advantageous influence on stomatal conductance from increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration.

Changing patterns of the East Asian monsoon drive shifts in migration and abundance of a globally important rice pest.

Numerous insects including pests and beneficial species undertake windborne migrations over hundreds of kilometers. In East Asia, climate-induced changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation systems are affecting wind-fields and precipitation zones and these, in turn, are changing migration patterns. We examined the consequences in a serious rice pest, the brown planthopper (BPH, Nilaparvata lugens) in East China. BPH cannot overwinter in temperate East Asia, and infestations there are initiated by several waves of windborne spring or summer migrants originating from tropical areas in Indochina. The East Asian summer monsoon, characterized by abundant rainfall and southerly winds, is of critical importance for these northward movements. We analyzed a 42-year dataset of meteorological parameters and catches of BPH from a standardized network of 341 light-traps in South and East China. We show that south of the Yangtze River during summer, southwesterly winds have weakened and rainfall increased, while the summer precipitation has decreased further north on the Jianghuai Plain. Together, these changes have resulted in shorter migratory journeys for BPH leaving South China. As a result, pest outbreaks of BPH in the key rice-growing area of the Lower Yangtze River Valley (LYRV) have declined since 2001. We show that these changes to the East Asian summer monsoon weather parameters are driven by shifts in the position and intensity of the Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) system that have occurred during the last 20 years. As a result, the relationship between WPSH intensity and BPH immigration that was previously used to predict the size of the immigration to the LYRV has now broken down. Our results demonstrate that migration patterns of a serious rice pest have shifted in response to the climate-induced changes in precipitation and wind pattern, with significant consequences for the population management of migratory pests.