Elevated Southern Hemisphere moisture availability during glacial periods.

Late Pleistocene ice-age climates are routinely characterized as having imposed moisture stress on low- to mid-latitude ecosystems1-5. This idea is largely based on fossil pollen evidence for widespread, low-biomass glacial vegetation, interpreted as indicating climatic dryness6. However, woody plant growth is inhibited under low atmospheric CO2 (refs. 7,8), so understanding glacial environments requires the development of new palaeoclimate indicators that are independent of vegetation9. Here we show that, contrary to expectations, during the past 350 kyr, peaks in southern Australian climatic moisture availability were largely confined to glacial periods, including the Last Glacial Maximum, whereas warm interglacials were relatively dry. By measuring the timing of speleothem growth in the Southern Hemisphere subtropics, which today has a predominantly negative annual moisture balance, we developed a record of climatic moisture availability that is independent of vegetation and extends through multiple glacial-interglacial cycles. Our results demonstrate that a cool-moist response is consistent across the austral subtropics and, in part, may result from reduced evaporation under cool glacial temperatures. Insofar as cold glacial environments in the Southern Hemisphere subtropics have been portrayed as uniformly arid3,10,11, our findings suggest that their characterization as evolutionary or physiological obstacles to movement and expansion of animal, plant and, potentially, human populations10 should be reconsidered.

Climate velocities and species tracking in global mountain regions.

Mountain ranges contain high concentrations of endemic species and are indispensable refugia for lowland species that are facing anthropogenic climate change1,2. Forecasting biodiversity redistribution hinges on assessing whether species can track shifting isotherms as the climate warms3,4. However, a global analysis of the velocities of isotherm shifts along elevation gradients is hindered by the scarcity of weather stations in mountainous regions5. Here we address this issue by mapping the lapse rate of temperature (LRT) across mountain regions globally, both by using satellite data (SLRT) and by using the laws of thermodynamics to account for water vapour6 (that is, the moist adiabatic lapse rate (MALRT)). By dividing the rate of surface warming from 1971 to 2020 by either the SLRT or the MALRT, we provide maps of vertical isotherm shift velocities. We identify 17 mountain regions with exceptionally high vertical isotherm shift velocities (greater than 11.67 m per year for the SLRT; greater than 8.25 m per year for the MALRT), predominantly in dry areas but also in wet regions with shallow lapse rates; for example, northern Sumatra, the Brazilian highlands and southern Africa. By linking these velocities to the velocities of species range shifts, we report instances of close tracking in mountains with lower climate velocities. However, many species lag behind, suggesting that range shift dynamics would persist even if we managed to curb climate-change trajectories. Our findings are key for devising global conservation strategies, particularly in the 17 high-velocity mountain regions that we have identified.

Human degradation of tropical moist forests is greater than previously estimated.

Tropical forest degradation from selective logging, fire and edge effects is a major driver of carbon and biodiversity loss1-3, with annual rates comparable to those of deforestation4. However, its actual extent and long-term impacts remain uncertain at global tropical scale5. Here we quantify the magnitude and persistence of multiple types of degradation on forest structure by combining satellite remote sensing data on pantropical moist forest cover changes4 with estimates of canopy height and biomass from spaceborne6 light detection and ranging (LiDAR). We estimate that forest height decreases owing to selective logging and fire by 15% and 50%, respectively, with low rates of recovery even after 20 years. Agriculture and road expansion trigger a 20% to 30% reduction in canopy height and biomass at the forest edge, with persistent effects being measurable up to 1.5 km inside the forest. Edge effects encroach on 18% (approximately 206 Mha) of the remaining tropical moist forests, an area more than 200% larger than previously estimated7. Finally, degraded forests with more than 50% canopy loss are significantly more vulnerable to subsequent deforestation. Collectively, our findings call for greater efforts to prevent degradation and protect already degraded forests to meet the conservation pledges made at recent United Nations Climate Change and Biodiversity conferences.

The geography of climate and the global patterns of species diversity.

Climate's effect on global biodiversity is typically viewed through the lens of temperature, humidity and resulting ecosystem productivity1-6. However, it is not known whether biodiversity depends solely on these climate conditions, or whether the size and fragmentation of these climates are also crucial. Here we shift the common perspective in global biodiversity studies, transitioning from geographic space to a climate-defined multidimensional space. Our findings suggest that larger and more isolated climate conditions tend to harbour higher diversity and species turnover among terrestrial tetrapods, encompassing more than 30,000 species. By considering both the characteristics of climate itself and its geographic attributes, we can explain almost 90% of the variation in global species richness. Half of the explanatory power (45%) may be attributed either to climate itself or to the geography of climate, suggesting a nuanced interplay between them. Our work evolves the conventional idea that larger climate regions, such as the tropics, host more species primarily because of their size7,8. Instead, we underscore the integral roles of both the geographic extent and degree of isolation of climates. This refined understanding presents a more intricate picture of biodiversity distribution, which can guide our approach to biodiversity conservation in an ever-changing world.

Effects of moisture and density-dependent interactions on tropical tree diversity.

Tropical tree diversity increases with rainfall1,2. Direct physiological effects of moisture availability and indirect effects mediated by biotic interactions are hypothesized to contribute to this pantropical increase in diversity with rainfall2-6. Previous studies have demonstrated direct physiological effects of variation in moisture availability on tree survival and diversity5,7-10, but the indirect effects of variation in moisture availability on diversity mediated by biotic interactions have not been shown11. Here we evaluate the relationships between interannual variation in moisture availability, the strength of density-dependent interactions, and seedling diversity in central Panama. Diversity increased with soil moisture over the first year of life across 20 annual cohorts. These first-year changes in diversity persisted for at least 15 years. Differential survival of moisture-sensitive species did not contribute to the observed changes in diversity. Rather, negative density-dependent interactions among conspecifics were stronger and increased diversity in wetter years. This suggests that moisture availability enhances diversity indirectly through moisture-sensitive, density-dependent conspecific interactions. Pathogens and phytophagous insects mediate interactions among seedlings in tropical forests12-18, and many of these plant enemies are themselves moisture-sensitive19-27. Changes in moisture availability caused by climate change and habitat degradation may alter these interactions and tropical tree diversity.

Climate warming increases extreme daily wildfire growth risk in California.

California has experienced enhanced extreme wildfire behaviour in recent years1-3, leading to substantial loss of life and property4,5. Some portion of the change in wildfire behaviour is attributable to anthropogenic climate warming, but formally quantifying this contribution is difficult because of numerous confounding factors6,7 and because wildfires are below the grid scale of global climate models. Here we use machine learning to quantify empirical relationships between temperature (as well as the influence of temperature on aridity) and the risk of extreme daily wildfire growth (>10,000 acres) in California and find that the influence of temperature on the risk is primarily mediated through its influence on fuel moisture. We use the uncovered relationships to estimate the changes in extreme daily wildfire growth risk under anthropogenic warming by subjecting historical fires from 2003 to 2020 to differing background climatological temperatures and aridity conditions. We find that the influence of anthropogenic warming on the risk of extreme daily wildfire growth varies appreciably on a fire-by-fire and day-by-day basis, depending on whether or not climate warming pushes conditions over certain thresholds of aridity, such as 1.5 kPa of vapour-pressure deficit and 10% dead fuel moisture. So far, anthropogenic warming has enhanced the aggregate expected frequency of extreme daily wildfire growth by 25% (5-95 range of 14-36%), on average, relative to preindustrial conditions. But for some fires, there was approximately no change, and for other fires, the enhancement has been as much as 461%. When historical fires are subjected to a range of projected end-of-century conditions, the aggregate expected frequency of extreme daily wildfire growth events increases by 59% (5-95 range of 47-71%) under a low SSP1-2.6 emissions scenario compared with an increase of 172% (5-95 range of 156-188%) under a very high SSP5-8.5 emissions scenario, relative to preindustrial conditions.

A warming-induced reduction in snow fraction amplifies rainfall extremes.

The intensity of extreme precipitation events is projected to increase in a warmer climate1-5, posing a great challenge to water sustainability in natural and built environments. Of particular importance are rainfall (liquid precipitation) extremes owing to their instantaneous triggering of runoff and association with floods6, landslides7-9 and soil erosion10,11. However, so far, the body of literature on intensification of precipitation extremes has not examined the extremes of precipitation phase separately, namely liquid versus solid precipitation. Here we show that the increase in rainfall extremes in high-elevation regions of the Northern Hemisphere is amplified, averaging 15 per cent per degree Celsius of warming-double the rate expected from increases in atmospheric water vapour. We utilize both a climate reanalysis dataset and future model projections to show that the amplified increase is due to a warming-induced shift from snow to rain. Furthermore, we demonstrate that intermodel uncertainty in projections of rainfall extremes can be appreciably explained by changes in snow-rain partitioning (coefficient of determination 0.47). Our findings pinpoint high-altitude regions as 'hotspots' that are vulnerable to future risk of extreme-rainfall-related hazards, thereby requiring robust climate adaptation plans to alleviate potential risk. Moreover, our results offer a pathway towards reducing model uncertainty in projections of rainfall extremes.

Sustained wet-dry cycling on early Mars.

The presence of perennially wet surface environments on early Mars is well documented1,2, but little is known about short-term episodicity in the early hydroclimate3. Post-depositional processes driven by such short-term fluctuations may produce distinct structures, yet these are rarely preserved in the sedimentary record4. Incomplete geological constraints have led global models of the early Mars water cycle and climate to produce diverging results5,6. Here we report observations by the Curiosity rover at Gale Crater indicating that high-frequency wet-dry cycling occurred in early Martian surface environments. We observe exhumed centimetric polygonal ridges with sulfate enrichments, joined at Y-junctions, that record cracks formed in fresh mud owing to repeated wet-dry cycles of regular intensity. Instead of sporadic hydrological activity induced by impacts or volcanoes5, our findings point to a sustained, cyclic, possibly seasonal, climate on early Mars. Furthermore, as wet-dry cycling can promote prebiotic polymerization7,8, the Gale evaporitic basin may have been particularly conducive to these processes. The observed polygonal patterns are physically and temporally associated with the transition from smectite clays to sulfate-bearing strata, a globally distributed mineral transition1. This indicates that the Noachian-Hesperian transition (3.8-3.6 billion years ago) may have sustained an Earth-like climate regime and surface environments favourable to prebiotic evolution.

Reversed Holocene temperature-moisture relationship in the Horn of Africa.

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to severely impact the global hydrological cycle1, particularly in tropical regions where agriculture-based economies depend on monsoon rainfall2. In the Horn of Africa, more frequent drought conditions in recent decades3,4 contrast with climate models projecting precipitation to increase with rising temperature5. Here we use organic geochemical climate-proxy data from the sediment record of Lake Chala (Kenya and Tanzania) to probe the stability of the link between hydroclimate and temperature over approximately the past 75,000 years, hence encompassing a sufficiently wide range of temperatures to test the 'dry gets drier, wet gets wetter' paradigm6 of anthropogenic climate change in the time domain. We show that the positive relationship between effective moisture and temperature in easternmost Africa during the cooler last glacial period shifted to negative around the onset of the Holocene 11,700 years ago, when the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration exceeded 250 parts per million and mean annual temperature approached modern-day values. Thus, at that time, the budget between monsoonal precipitation and continental evaporation7 crossed a tipping point such that the positive influence of temperature on evaporation became greater than its positive influence on precipitation. Our results imply that under continued anthropogenic warming, the Horn of Africa will probably experience further drying, and they highlight the need for improved simulation of both dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the tropical hydrological cycle.

Increased heat risk in wet climate induced by urban humid heat.

Cities are generally warmer than their adjacent rural land, a phenomenon known as the urban heat island (UHI). Often accompanying the UHI effect is another phenomenon called the urban dry island (UDI), whereby the humidity of urban land is lower than that of the surrounding rural land1-3. The UHI exacerbates heat stress on urban residents4,5, whereas the UDI may instead provide relief because the human body can cope with hot conditions better at lower humidity through perspiration6,7. The relative balance between the UHI and the UDI-as measured by changes in the wet-bulb temperature (Tw)-is a key yet largely unknown determinant of human heat stress in urban climates. Here we show that Tw is reduced in cities in dry and moderately wet climates, where the UDI more than offsets the UHI, but increased in wet climates (summer precipitation of more than 570 millimetres). Our results arise from analysis of urban and rural weather station data across the world and calculations with an urban climate model. In wet climates, the urban daytime Tw is 0.17 ± 0.14 degrees Celsius (mean ± 1 standard deviation) higher than rural Tw in the summer, primarily because of a weaker dynamic mixing in urban air. This Tw increment is small, but because of the high background Tw in wet climates, it is enough to cause two to six extra dangerous heat-stress days per summer for urban residents under current climate conditions. The risk of extreme humid heat is projected to increase in the future, and these urban effects may further amplify the risk.

The carbon sink of secondary and degraded humid tropical forests.

The globally important carbon sink of intact, old-growth tropical humid forests is declining because of climate change, deforestation and degradation from fire and logging1-3. Recovering tropical secondary and degraded forests now cover about 10% of the tropical forest area4, but how much carbon they accumulate remains uncertain. Here we quantify the aboveground carbon (AGC) sink of recovering forests across three main continuous tropical humid regions: the Amazon, Borneo and Central Africa5,6. On the basis of satellite data products4,7, our analysis encompasses the heterogeneous spatial and temporal patterns of growth in degraded and secondary forests, influenced by key environmental and anthropogenic drivers. In the first 20 years of recovery, regrowth rates in Borneo were up to 45% and 58% higher than in Central Africa and the Amazon, respectively. This is due to variables such as temperature, water deficit and disturbance regimes. We find that regrowing degraded and secondary forests accumulated 107 Tg C year-1 (90-130 Tg C year-1) between 1984 and 2018, counterbalancing 26% (21-34%) of carbon emissions from humid tropical forest loss during the same period. Protecting old-growth forests is therefore a priority. Furthermore, we estimate that conserving recovering degraded and secondary forests can have a feasible future carbon sink potential of 53 Tg C year-1 (44-62 Tg C year-1) across the main tropical regions studied.

Hydration solids.

Hygroscopic biological matter in plants, fungi and bacteria make up a large fraction of Earth's biomass1. Although metabolically inert, these water-responsive materials exchange water with the environment and actuate movement2-5 and have inspired technological uses6,7. Despite the variety in chemical composition, hygroscopic biological materials across multiple kingdoms of life exhibit similar mechanical behaviours including changes in size and stiffness with relative humidity8-13. Here we report atomic force microscopy measurements on the hygroscopic spores14,15 of a common soil bacterium and develop a theory that captures the observed equilibrium, non-equilibrium and water-responsive mechanical behaviours, finding that these are controlled by the hydration force16-18. Our theory based on the hydration force explains an extreme slowdown of water transport and successfully predicts a strong nonlinear elasticity and a transition in mechanical properties that differs from glassy and poroelastic behaviours. These results indicate that water not only endows biological matter with fluidity but also can-through the hydration force-control macroscopic properties and give rise to a 'hydration solid' with unusual properties. A large fraction of biological matter could belong to this distinct class of solid matter.

Perovskite solar cells based on screen-printed thin films.

One potential advantage of perovskite solar cells (PSCs) is the ability to solution process the precursors and deposit films from solution1,2. At present, spin coating, blade coating, spray coating, inkjet printing and slot-die printing have been investigated to deposit hybrid perovskite thin films3-6. Here we expand the range of deposition methods to include screen-printing, enabled by a stable and viscosity-adjustable (40-44,000 cP) perovskite ink made from a methylammonium acetate ionic liquid solvent. We demonstrate control over perovskite thin-film thickness (from about 120 nm to about 1,200 nm), area (from 0.5 × 0.5 cm2 to 5 × 5 cm2) and patterning on different substrates. Printing rates in excess of 20 cm s-1 and close to 100% ink use were achieved. Using this deposition method in ambient air and regardless of humidity, we obtained the best efficiencies of 20.52% (0.05 cm2) and 18.12% (1 cm2) compared with 20.13% and 12.52%, respectively, for the spin-coated thin films in normal devices with thermally evaporated metal electrodes. Most notably, fully screen-printing devices with a single machine in ambient air have been successfully explored. The corresponding photovoltaic cells exhibit high efficiencies of 14.98%, 13.53% and 11.80% on 0.05-cm2, 1.00-cm2 and 16.37-cm2 (small-module) areas, respectively, along with 96.75% of the initial efficiency retained over 300 h of operation at maximum power point.

Wetland emission and atmospheric sink changes explain methane growth in 2020.

Atmospheric methane growth reached an exceptionally high rate of 15.1 ± 0.4 parts per billion per year in 2020 despite a probable decrease in anthropogenic methane emissions during COVID-19 lockdowns1. Here we quantify changes in methane sources and in its atmospheric sink in 2020 compared with 2019. We find that, globally, total anthropogenic emissions decreased by 1.2 ± 0.1 teragrams of methane per year (Tg CH4 yr-1), fire emissions decreased by 6.5 ± 0.1 Tg CH4 yr-1 and wetland emissions increased by 6.0 ± 2.3 Tg CH4 yr-1. Tropospheric OH concentration decreased by 1.6 ± 0.2 per cent relative to 2019, mainly as a result of lower anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions and associated lower free tropospheric ozone during pandemic lockdowns2. From atmospheric inversions, we also infer that global net emissions increased by 6.9 ± 2.1 Tg CH4 yr-1 in 2020 relative to 2019, and global methane removal from reaction with OH decreased by 7.5 ± 0.8 Tg CH4 yr-1. Therefore, we attribute the methane growth rate anomaly in 2020 relative to 2019 to lower OH sink (53 ± 10 per cent) and higher natural emissions (47 ± 16 per cent), mostly from wetlands. In line with previous findings3,4, our results imply that wetland methane emissions are sensitive to a warmer and wetter climate and could act as a positive feedback mechanism in the future. Our study also suggests that nitrogen oxide emission trends need to be taken into account when implementing the global anthropogenic methane emissions reduction pledge5.

Tropical tree mortality has increased with rising atmospheric water stress.

Evidence exists that tree mortality is accelerating in some regions of the tropics1,2, with profound consequences for the future of the tropical carbon sink and the global anthropogenic carbon budget left to limit peak global warming below 2 °C. However, the mechanisms that may be driving such mortality changes and whether particular species are especially vulnerable remain unclear3-8. Here we analyse a 49-year record of tree dynamics from 24 old-growth forest plots encompassing a broad climatic gradient across the Australian moist tropics and find that annual tree mortality risk has, on average, doubled across all plots and species over the last 35 years, indicating a potential halving in life expectancy and carbon residence time. Associated losses in biomass were not offset by gains from growth and recruitment. Plots in less moist local climates presented higher average mortality risk, but local mean climate did not predict the pace of temporal increase in mortality risk. Species varied in the trajectories of their mortality risk, with the highest average risk found nearer to the upper end of the atmospheric vapour pressure deficit niches of species. A long-term increase in vapour pressure deficit was evident across the region, suggesting that thresholds involving atmospheric water stress, driven by global warming, may be a primary cause of increasing tree mortality in moist tropical forests.

High air humidity dampens salicylic acid pathway and NPR1 function to promote plant disease.

The occurrence of plant disease is determined by interactions among host, pathogen, and environment. Air humidity shapes various aspects of plant physiology and high humidity has long been known to promote numerous phyllosphere diseases. However, the molecular basis of how high humidity interferes with plant immunity to favor disease has remained elusive. Here we show that high humidity is associated with an "immuno-compromised" status in Arabidopsis plants. Furthermore, accumulation and signaling of salicylic acid (SA), an important defense hormone, are significantly inhibited under high humidity. NPR1, an SA receptor and central transcriptional co-activator of SA-responsive genes, is less ubiquitinated and displays a lower promoter binding affinity under high humidity. The cellular ubiquitination machinery, particularly the Cullin 3-based E3 ubiquitin ligase mediating NPR1 protein ubiquitination, is downregulated under high humidity. Importantly, under low humidity the Cullin 3a/b mutant plants phenocopy the low SA gene expression and disease susceptibility that is normally observed under high humidity. Our study uncovers a mechanism by which high humidity dampens a major plant defense pathway and provides new insights into the long-observed air humidity influence on diseases.

Widespread potential loss of streamflow into underlying aquifers across the USA.

Most rivers exchange water with surrounding aquifers1,2. Where groundwater levels lie below nearby streams, streamwater can infiltrate through the streambed, reducing streamflow and recharging the aquifer3. These 'losing' streams have important implications for water availability, riparian ecosystems and environmental flows4-10, but the prevalence of losing streams remains poorly constrained by continent-wide in situ observations. Here we analyse water levels in 4.2 million wells across the contiguous USA and show that nearly two-thirds (64 per cent) of them lie below nearby stream surfaces, implying that these streamwaters will seep into the subsurface if it is sufficiently permeable. A lack of adequate permeability data prevents us from quantifying the magnitudes of these subsurface flows, but our analysis nonetheless demonstrates widespread potential for streamwater losses into underlying aquifers. These potentially losing rivers are more common in drier climates, flatter landscapes and regions with extensive groundwater pumping. Our results thus imply that climatic factors, geological conditions and historic groundwater pumping jointly contribute to the widespread risk of streams losing flow into surrounding aquifers instead of gaining flow from them. Recent modelling studies10 have suggested that losing streams could become common in future decades, but our direct observations show that many rivers across the USA are already potentially losing flow, highlighting the importance of coordinating groundwater and surface water policy.

The three major axes of terrestrial ecosystem function.

The leaf economics spectrum1,2 and the global spectrum of plant forms and functions3 revealed fundamental axes of variation in plant traits, which represent different ecological strategies that are shaped by the evolutionary development of plant species2. Ecosystem functions depend on environmental conditions and the traits of species that comprise the ecological communities4. However, the axes of variation of ecosystem functions are largely unknown, which limits our understanding of how ecosystems respond as a whole to anthropogenic drivers, climate and environmental variability4,5. Here we derive a set of ecosystem functions6 from a dataset of surface gas exchange measurements across major terrestrial biomes. We find that most of the variability within ecosystem functions (71.8%) is captured by three key axes. The first axis reflects maximum ecosystem productivity and is mostly explained by vegetation structure. The second axis reflects ecosystem water-use strategies and is jointly explained by variation in vegetation height and climate. The third axis, which represents ecosystem carbon-use efficiency, features a gradient related to aridity, and is explained primarily by variation in vegetation structure. We show that two state-of-the-art land surface models reproduce the first and most important axis of ecosystem functions. However, the models tend to simulate more strongly correlated functions than those observed, which limits their ability to accurately predict the full range of responses to environmental changes in carbon, water and energy cycling in terrestrial ecosystems7,8.

Soil moisture-atmosphere feedback dominates land carbon uptake variability.

Year-to-year changes in carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems have an essential role in determining atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations1. It remains uncertain to what extent temperature and water availability can explain these variations at the global scale2-5. Here we use factorial climate model simulations6 and show that variability in soil moisture drives 90 per cent of the inter-annual variability in global land carbon uptake, mainly through its impact on photosynthesis. We find that most of this ecosystem response occurs indirectly as soil moisture-atmosphere feedback amplifies temperature and humidity anomalies and enhances the direct effects of soil water stress. The strength of this feedback mechanism explains why coupled climate models indicate that soil moisture has a dominant role4, which is not readily apparent from land surface model simulations and observational analyses2,5. These findings highlight the need to account for feedback between soil and atmospheric dryness when estimating the response of the carbon cycle to climatic change globally5,7, as well as when conducting field-scale investigations of the response of the ecosystem to droughts8,9. Our results show that most of the global variability in modelled land carbon uptake is driven by temperature and vapour pressure deficit effects that are controlled by soil moisture.

Bacterial spores respond to humidity similarly to hydrogels.

Bacterial spores have outstanding properties from the materials science perspective, which allow them to survive extreme environmental conditions. Recent work by [S. G. Harrellson et al., Nature 619, 500-505 (2023)] studied the mechanical properties of Bacillus subtilis spores and the evolution of these properties with the change of humidity. The experimental measurements were interpreted assuming that the spores behave as water-filled porous solids, subjected to hydration forces. Here, we revisit their experimental data using literature data on vapor sorption on spores and ideas from polymer physics. We demonstrate that upon the change of humidity, the spores behave like rubber with respect to their swelling, elasticity, and relaxation times. This picture is consistent with the knowledge of the materials comprising the bacterial cell walls-cross-linked peptidoglycan. Our results provide an interpretation of the mechanics of bacterial spores and can help in developing synthetic materials mimicking the mechanical properties of the spores.